Role Of Land Use Change Research Articles

CDOM dynamics in two coastal zones influenced by contrasting land uses in northern Patagonia

Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an indicator and optical proxy of terrestrial processes such as land use with allochthonous material fluxes, biogeochemical cycles, and water quality in coastal zones influenced by rivers. However, the role of land use changes on the spatial and temporal availability of CDOM has been poorly explored in Chile. Here, we studied two watersheds with similar climates and contrasting land use patterns in northern Patagonia considering the sampling of CDOM in their estuarine and adjacent coastal ocean. An empirical algorithm with the coefficients adjusted to our study areas to estimate CDOM was applied to Landsat 7 and 8 images to examine temporal variability of CDOMest from 2001 to 2011 and 2013–2020. Our results showed an increasing trend of CDOMest in both areas. Different trends in land use patterns between the two watersheds showed a significant correlation with CDOMest and contrasting associations with environmental variables. Higher humification was found in Yaldad in comparison with Colu. In both areas, allochthonous materials predominated, especially during austral spring according to the low values of the Fluorescence Index (FI). Our results highlight the potential of CDOMest to parameterize biogeochemical cycling models and to further understand the dynamics of CDOM in coastal ecosystems.

The role of land use changes and rainfall on soil erosion rate in Evard watershed, Nekarood

The role of land use changes and rainfall on soil erosion rate in Evard watershed, Nekarood

Explaining the role of land use changes on land surface temperature in an arid and semi-arid metropolitan area with multi-scale spatial regression analysis.

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes are critical environmental concerns that require continuous monitoring and assessment, especially in cities within arid and semi-arid (ASA) climates. Despite the abundance of research in tropical, Mediterranean, and cold climates, there is a significant knowledge gap for cities in the Middle East with ASA climates. This study aimed to examine the effects of LULC change, population, and wind speed on LST in the Mashhad Metropolis, a city with an ASA climate, over a 30-year period. The research underscores the importance of environmental monitoring and assessment in understanding and mitigating the impacts of urbanization and climate change. Our research combines spatial regression models, multi-scale and fine-scale analyses, seasonal and city outskirts considerations, and long-term change assessments. We used Landsat satellite imagery, a crucial tool for environmental monitoring, to identify LULC changes and their impact on LST at three scales. The relationships were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) regressions, demonstrating the value of these techniques in environmental assessment. Our findings highlight the role of environmental factors in shaping LST. A decrease in vegetation and instability of water bodies significantly increased LST over the study period. Bare lands and rocky terrains had the most substantial effect on LST. At the same time, built-up areas resulted in Urban Cooling Islands (UCIs) due to their lower temperatures compared to surrounding bare lands. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Dry Bare-Soil Index (DBSI) were the most effective indices impacting LST in ASA regions, and the 30×30 m2 micro-scale provides more precise results in regression models, underscoring their importance in environmental monitoring. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between LULC changes and LST in an ASA environment, contributing significantly to the literature on environmental change in arid regions and the methodologies for monitoring such changes. Future research should aim to validate and expand additional LST-affecting factors and test our approach and findings in other ASA regions, considering the unique characteristics of these areas and the importance of tailored environmental monitoring and assessment approaches.

Multi-Scale Drivers of Land-Use Changes at Farm Level I: Conceptual Framework and Application in the Highly Flooded Zone of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

There is an implementation gap between government plans and land-use changes at the local level in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. This stands in the way of the sustainable development of the delta, especially in the face of environmental degradation, climate change, and water-use conflicts. To narrow the gap between plans and practice, the government needs a better understanding of what drives land-use decisions at the farm level. Our research developed and applied a multi-scale framework to identify the principal drivers of land-use changes at the farm level in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta over the past 40 years. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 31 farmers in the highly flooded zone, then used transcript analysis to quantify the influence of the drivers mentioned by farmers. We found drastic shifts in land uses, predominantly towards rice intensification. Among the 43 change drivers the farmers mentioned, those operating at the regional scale were particularly influential, including the activities of local authorities, neighborhood effects, and the development of water management infrastructure. Market factors have become more prominent in the last two decades, motivating farmers to shift from double to triple rice or to gradually diversify into vegetables. However, agricultural diversification remains limited by the agro-hydrological context, which favors triple rice cropping, as well as household scale factors such as natural and physical assets of the farm, household capital, and labor capacity. The local community also played a key role in land-use change, though with a double-edged effect, both delaying implementation of central government policy and forcing farmers to follow the majority’s decision.

Wildfire Susceptibility of Land Use and Topographic Features in the Western United States: Implications for the Landscape Management

Understanding the role of land use type and topographic features in shaping wildfire regimes received much attention because of the intensification of wildfire activities. The intensifying wildfires in the western United States are a great concern both for the environment and society. We investigate the patterns of wildfire occurrence in the western United States at the landscape level by using 118 wildfires with areas greater than 405 ha in the study year of 2018. The selection ratios were calculated to measure fire preference with regard to land cover type, slope, and aspect. The results suggest that grasslands, steeper slopes, and south-facing aspects were more susceptible to wildfires in the western United States. Additionally, there were regional variations in wildfire susceptibility in Washington, Oregon, and California. The most wildfire-prone land cover type in Washington was mixed forests, whereas that in Oregon and California was grassland. The findings of this study improve the understanding of the role of land use changes and topographic features in shaping wildfire patterns in the western United States, providing insights for managing wildfire risks for forest management strategies at the landscape level.

The Main Drivers of Biodiversity Loss: A Brief Overview

This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the primary drivers leading to global biodiversity loss based on recent scientific research. These drivers are agricultural expansion, climate change, marine exploitation, urbanization and the spread of invasive species. The paper examines the significant role of land use change, responsible for endangering 85% of species at risk, largely through habitat transformation. The impacts of climate change on ecosystems are discussed, including ocean warming, acidification, and altered ocean currents; factors that pose challenges for various species. Marine exploitation contributes to the decline of marine species and habitats. The paper also discusses how urbanization leads to habitat fragmentation, and the threats posed by invasive species that disrupt native ecological networks. Assessing the drivers of biodiversity loss creates a knowledge baseline for action.

The role of land use change in affecting ecosystem services and the ecological security pattern of the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

The land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and human activities is supposed to exert a significant effect on ecosystem functions in arid inland regions. However, the role of LUCC in shaping the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem services and ecological security remain unclear, especially under different future LUCC scenarios. Here, we evaluated dynamic changes of ecosystem services and ecological security pattern (ESP) in the Hexi Regions based on LUCC and other environment variables by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), entropy weight method and circuit theory. Our result showed that the LUCC was generally stable from 1980 to 2050. Compare to 2020, the land conversion under natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP) and urban development (UD) scenarios in 2050 has changed by 10.30 %, 10.10 %, and 10.31 %, respectively. The forest, medium-cover grassland and water increased in the EP scenario, and construction land and cropland greatly expanded in the other two scenarios. Ecosystem services grew larger in the EP scenario by 2050 in comparison with the NG and UD scenarios. The ESP in the Hexi Regions has obvious spatial differences during 1980–2050. The larger ecological sources and less resistance corridors were mainly distributed in the central and eastern of the Hexi Regions with high ecosystem services. Conversely, fragmented ecological sources and larger resistance corridors were mostly located in the western regions blocked by sandy land, bare land or mountains. Compared to 2020, the area of ecological sources and pinch points under the EP scenario in 2050 increased by 4.10 × 103 km2 and 0.31 × 103 km2, respectively. The number of ecological corridors reduced while the length and resistance increased apart from the EP scenario. Our results highlighted the importance of ecological protection in shaping the LUCC, which further enhances the integrity of ecosystem and ecological security.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Habitat Quality and Its Response of Landscape Dynamic in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China.

Habitat quality is an important indicator for assessing biodiversity and is critical to ecosystem processes. With urban development and construction in developing countries, habitat quality is increasingly influenced by landscape pattern changes. This has made habitat conservation to be an increasingly urgent issue. Despite the growing interest in this issue, studies that reveal the role of land use change in habitat degradation at multiple scales are still lacking. Therefore, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of habitat quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir area by the InVEST habitat quality model and demonstrated the responses of habitat quality to various landscape dynamics by correspondence analysis. The result showed that the habitat quality score of this area increased from 0.685 in 2000 to 0.739 in 2015 and presented a significant spatial heterogeneity. Habitat quality was significantly higher in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the reservoir area than in other regions. Meanwhile, habitat quality improved with altitude and slope, and increased for all altitude and slope zones. The habitat quality of >1000 m and >25° zone exceeds 0.8, while the habitat quality of <500 m and <15° zone is less than 0.6. Habitat quality significantly varied among landscape dynamics and was extremely sensitive to vegetation recovery and urban expansion. The vegetation restoration model of returning farmland to forest is difficult to sustain, so we suggest changing the vegetation recovery model to constructing complex vegetation community. This study helps us to better understand the effects of landscape pattern changes on habitat quality and can provide a scientific basis for formulating regional ecological conservation policies and sustainable use of land resources.

Effect of land use change on summertime surface temperature, albedo, and evapotranspiration in Las Vegas Valley

Urban surfaces affect the surface energy budget, which plays a defining role in outdoor water requirements changing an area's evapotranspiration. They also affect thermal comfort levels for humans, animals, and vegetation by causing the surface temperature to vary. This study analyzes the effects of land use change on the surface albedo, land surface temperature (LST), and evapotranspiration (ET) of the arid Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The changes in land use considered include transitions from barren and rural surfaces into urban surfaces covered with residential, commercial buildings, roadways, and turf grass. The impacts of these changes were determined by analyzing trends over the summer periods from 1990 to 2017. Remote sensing data acquired by Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat satellite were used to retrieve various geophysical characteristics, including albedo and LST. The ET was estimated using the Mapping of Evapotranspiration using Internal Calibration (METRIC) model with remote sensing input data. The geophysical characteristic trends, in response to urban land use change, were quantified using Mann Kendall's trend analysis.The results showed that commercial buildings and roadways are the main contributors to increased LST. Land use change from rural to commercial buildings decreased surface albedo by 0.4 ± 0.01 with a Sen's slope (S) of 0.001–0.003 units/summer/year, and increased temperature by 7 ± 0.2 K with S = 0.2 and 0.4 K/summer/year. Turf grass removal increased temperatures by 20 ± 0.3 K, while urbanization, in general, increased LST by 5 ± 0.3 K. Roadway surfaces, primarily covered with asphalt, were the main contributors to temperature increase of LST 17 ± 0.1 K and S = 0.2–0.8 K/summer/year, while decreasing albedo by 1 ± 0.01 with S = 0.001–0.003 units/summer/year. Turf grass development maintained LST in the valley throughout the study period, showing significant ET increase (S = 0.04–0.06 mm/summer/year), with an average increase of 1 ± 0.07 mm/day. This study can help water managers and urban planners to understand the role of land use change in irrigation water demand and urban thermal comfort.

Spatio-Temporal Change of Land Use in a Coastal Reclamation Area: A Complex Network Approach

Coastal ecological protection and restoration projects aimed to restore and recover the ecological environment of coastal wetland with high-intensity human reclamation activity, while the integrity of the coastal wetland system with human reclamation activity and the ability of individual land use types to control the overall system were not fully considered. In this study, a six-stage land use conversion network was constructed by using a complex network model to analyze coastal land use dynamic changes in the coastal reclamation area located in eastern China from 1977 to 2016. The results showed that land use types had gradually transformed from being dominated by natural types to artificial types, and the speed of transformation was accelerating. The proportion of un-reclaimed area decreased from 93% in 1977 to 46% in 2007, and finally fell to 8% in 2014 and 2016. Tidal flat and halophytic vegetation were the main output land use types, while cropland, woodland and aquaculture pond were the main input land use types. Cropland had the highest value of betweenness centrality, which played a key role in land use change from 1992 to 2014. The land use system of the coastal reclamation area was the most stable in 2002–2007, followed by 1984–1992, and the most unstable in 2007–2014. The Chinese and local government should carry out some measures to improve the land use in coastal wetland ecosystems, including the allocation and integration of land use for production space, living space, and ecological space, and develop multi-functionality of land use to realize the coastal high-quality development and coastal ecological protection and restoration.

Role of Land Use Changes on Ammonia Emissions from Agricultural Ecosystems in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 2000 to 2018

Based on Landsat satellite remote sensing images, this study interprets land use changes in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2018. Combined with changes in nitrogen fertilizer application, the changes in ammonia emissions from farmland ecosystem due changes in land use and nitrogen fertilizer application were further investigated. The results show that along with the rapid urbanization process, the area of cultivated land in the YRD region has gradually decreased from 276269 km2 (49% of total land area) in 2000 to 244001 km2 (44%) in 2018. The effects of changes in land use and nitrogen fertilizer application on ammonia emissions from farmland ecosystems mainly include emissions from soil background and nitrogen fertilizer application. From 2000 to 2018, ammonia emissions due to the application of nitrogen fertilizer decreased from 690 kt·a-1 to 541 kt·a-1 (relative decrease by 22%), while the ammonia emissions from the soil background reduced from 32 kt·a-1 to 29 kt·a-1 (decrease by 9%). During the past 20 years, urbanization in the YRD region has accelerated, and the area of cultivated land and the total amount of nitrogen fertilizer application have significantly reduced, thus resulting in reductions in ammonia emissions from the farmland ecosystem.

Global patterns and changes of carbon emissions from land use during 1992–2015

Carbon emissions from land use (ELUC) are an important part of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its size and location remain uncertain, and our knowledge of the relationship between ELUC and GDP remains partial. We showed that the carbon emissions directly caused by land use change (direct ELUC) during 1992–2015 was 26.54 Pg C (1.15 Pg C yr-1), with a decreased trend and a net reduction rate of −0.15 Pg C yr-1. The areas that exhibited reductions were concentrated in South America, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia, and those with increments were scattered in Northwestern North America, Eastern South America, Central Africa, East Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia. For the indirect carbon emissions from the utilization of built-up land (indirect ELUC), it manifested an upward trend with a total emission of 27.51 Pg C (1.2 Pg C yr-1). The total value resulted by global ELUC was $136.3 × 109 US, and the value of annual was equivalent to 3.7 times the GDP of the Central African Republic in 2015 ($5.93 × 109 US yr-1). Among the 79 countries and regions considered in this study, 54 represented the upward GDP with increased emissions, and only 25 experienced GDP growth with emission reductions. These findings highlight the pivotal role of land use change in the carbon cycle and the significance of coordinated development between GDP and carbon emissions.

Identification of soil piping-related depressions using an airborne LiDAR DEM: Role of land use changes

The detection of soil piping features is still a challenging issue that requires further studies, especially at larger scale. It seems that field mapping as a time-consuming method can be supported by the new technologies. This study has exploited the freely available airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) digital elevation model (DEM) to explore piping-related depressions. The aim was to test the possibility of digital detection of piping forms using sink-fill method and different derivatives of airborne LiDAR DEM (slope, Topographic Position Index, Topographic Ruggedness Index, Positive and Negative Openness Index) in order of its utility in regional scale studies. As geological structure, soils and climate are similar in the whole study area, the analysis was extended to include the changes in land use/land cover (LULC) in the last two centuries (1862–2017). The results were verified by the detailed geomorphological mapping in the field. The study was conducted in a small catchment in the Bieszczady Mts. (SE Poland) covered by forests and grasslands/pastures, where in the past transition from pastures to forests was observed. The findings have revealed the great impact of LULC changes on soil piping, thus also on the possibility of digital mapping which is often based only on topographic information. The success rate in recognition was satisfactory on grasslands/pastures (76% for individual forms and 80% for piping systems). Areas covered by forests since the mid-19th century are unlikely places to develop piping forms (just 2 forms found) in the study area, whereas places where transition from pastures to forest has been observed may be prone to soil piping. However, the digital identification of piping forms in areas with rough topography is difficult (a success rate of 45% for individual forms and 50% for piping systems). The digital mapping of piping forms cannot rely only on the topographic information but should be always accompanied by an analysis of factors controlling piping erosion.

LAND USE DATA IN THE MIDDLE MAULE RIVER SUB-BASIN: CLASSIFICATION AND COMPARISON BETWEEN 1999 AND 2019

Abstract. The use of satellite images is a modern strategy for the evaluation and prediction of various weather scenarios. In addition, this is a key tool for the development of environmental sciences. Since the end of the last decade, Chile has been suffering from a megadrought associated with climate change. In this context, this study proposes to evaluate the role of land use change in the Middle Maule River sub-basin, located in the Maule Region, Chile. This is an important sector characterized by a significant agricultural and hydroelectric contribution. To do so, this study performs a supervised classification of land cover through the usage of QGIS software and Landsat images for the years 1999 and 2019. The results show the growth of areas without vegetation due to a great drought facing the Central Zone of the country. Additionally, there is a decrease in available bodies of water. This article leaves open future research on the impact of the main economic activities of the region.

Spatial modeling on land use change in regional scale of Java Island based-on biophysical characteristics

This study discusses biophysical-based spatial modeling for land-use change in Java Island considering neighborhood interactions between land use types and the changing area. These neighborhood characteristics used in the logistic regression model to estimate the probability of the change events occurrence. Moreover, the future role of land-use change is then projected using the Markov model based on the annual land-use changes map. The results indicate that paddy rice with an irrigation system (double cropping), especially in upland areas has a high positive spatial autocorrelation with the change areas. Residential area, paddy rice, and upland with intensive cropping have a high effect on the probability of change occurrence. Meanwhile, barren lands/dry land, bush-shrub, and mixed garden give a negative correlation to the change occurrences in agricultural lands. In the case of forestland, the results show some land-use types such as upland with intensive cropping and plantation have a positive contribution to the change of land. The accuracy of the model has also assessed through comparison of the projection with the actual area. The results indicate that the future role of each land-use type is different based on the trend period predictor in the model.

Improvement of remote sensing ecological index in arid regions: Taking Ulan Buh Desert as an example

The arid area is mainly composed of desert, with fragile eco-environment and being extremely vulnerable to the influence of natural and human perturbations. Based on the remote sen-sing ecological index (RSEI), the arid remote sensing ecological index (ARSEI) was formed to improve the remote sensing ecological index for arid area, which was coupled with the information of greenness, humidity, salinity, heat and land degradation to quantitatively evaluate the eco-environment quality. We used ARSEI and RSEI to dynamically monitor and evaluate the eco-environment quality of Ulan Buh Desert from 2000 to 2019, and analyzed their differences and their applicability in arid area. We further examined the characteristics and reasons of the temporal and spatial variations of the eco-environment quality of Ulan Buh Desert. The results showed that the ARSEI index had better applicability to the eco-environment quality in arid area than the RSEI, and it enhanced the role of land use changes in the ecological environment quality assessment. From 2000 to 2019, the overall eco-environmental quality of Ulan Buh Desert was worse. The parts under better, good, and medium grades were mainly distributed in the northern region, the parts with worse grades were mainly concentrated in the gobi and sandy land, and the poor ones were mainly located in area with low coverage vegetation. From 2000 to 2019, the overall quality of the eco-environment in the Ulan Buh Desert were becoming better. Meanwhile, the eco-environment quality of towns and farms in the northern part of the desert changed complexly, with deterioration and improvement alternately distributed. The main reason for the changes in the eco-environment of Ulan Buh Desert was the positive effects of ecological agriculture and sand industry.

Quantitative analysis of the relationship between land use and urbanization development in typical arid areas.

As the most sensitive and typical oasis city in the arid region of China, Jiayuguan, the role of land use change and urbanization in this region is prominent, which is an important epitome of China's urbanization process, and has certain special characteristics. Based on RS and GIS technology, this study interpreted the land use data from 1992 to 2012 and analyzed its dynamic change process according to the land use change model. Meanwhile, this study established an indicator system that included demographic, economic, and urbanization data. By analyzing the relationship between the types of land use and the main indicators of urbanization, the interaction between urbanization and land use was quantitatively studied. The results showed that in the past 20years, the annual growth rate of woodland has reached the largest, reaching 11.39%. At the same time, the annual reduction rate of water body was 1.28%, and the annual reduction rate of unutilized land was only 0.53%. However, since the area occupied by unutilized land far exceeds the sum of other types, the minimum annual rate of change was sufficient to affect the land use pattern of the entire area. From 1992 to 2012, the R index of Jiayuguan was less than 0, indicating that the rate of change in land use during this period was small and in an adjustment period. According to the correlation analysis, the area ratios of land use types were significantly correlated with urbanization indicators. This study provided a feasible model for quantitatively analyzing the relationship between urbanization expansion and land use, which had a relatively universal applicability.

The role of land use changes on the formation and spatial changes of thermal islands – A case study in Ahvaz city, Iran

In this study, 7 images of OLI and EMT sensors of Landsat 7 and 8 satellites and multi-time images of TM sensor satellite 5 have been used. These images cover the period from 1987 to 2018 (31-year period); after applying processing to satellite imagery, land use layers were prepared by supervised classification method. Then, using the thermal equations and the center algorithm, the similarity of the surface temperature of the earth for the periods of 1978, 2000, and 2018 was calculated for the study area in four stages. Results indicate that barren lands in 1987 had the largest area with 437 km and the use of irrigated land had the least area with. Studies have also shown that from 2000 to 2018, due to the increase in urban population and migration to this city and the expansion of housing construction, residential use has gradually increased to an area of 446 and the amount of land use in barren lands has decreased to 431 square kilometers. Survey of temperature with temperature changes showed that in 1987, the temperature in barren land uses reached a maximum temperature of 48 outside the suburbs, and from 2000 to 2018, land use in the northwest and west of the metropolis reached 56 to 70. Examination of the results shows that during the study year, due to population growth and the growing trend of residential use in the metropolis due to the replacement of buildings, the Cement and Asphalt Organization will absorb these levels more than they reflect the sun and has increased the temperature in urban areas. This application is considered as the creator of the thermal island for the metropolis.

Farming System Transformation Impacts on Landscape: A Case Study on Quality Wine Production in a Highly Contested Agricultural Landscape

This paper is an attempt to synthesize the conclusions of a series of consecutive research projects along a common thread. It focuses on the landscape impacts of a gradual transformation undergone by a low input and bulk wine producing system into a quality wine system. This transformation took place on the island of Santorini, in Cyclades, Greece, during the last four decades in a highly contested landscape. A polarization in the power game has been identified, with two poles having different priorities and perceptions about the two issues at stake: agricultural landscape and wine quality. In the course of this process, both synergistic and antagonistic transition dynamics are encountered, transforming significantly the balance of driving forces. Our analysis suggests that market forces influenced landscape change to a far greater degree than policy measures implemented on the island. Developments in the international markets for tourism and quality wine have played a crucial role in land use change and farming intensity. Public intervention in the form of both regulatory land use planning policy and incentive measures like Rural Development Policy, including an agri-environmental measure, targeted to the vineyards of Santorini, did not seem to have an equally important impact. Integration of landscape maintenance practices within the wine quality regime could create beneficial synergies.

Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities

Urban development induced land transitions affect urban hydrology, resulting in increased flooding risks. Climate change-related precipitation changes are an added complexity to the flood risks of cities. This study examines the role of land use changes in determining the occurrence of urban flooding events across 42 Indian cities under current and future climate change scenarios. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017 have been processed using a hybrid classification technique to determine the land use shares for all cities. A typical event-count study using newspaper archives has been conducted to create a flooding event database. A multilevel model employing logistic mixed-effects approach was used. Future projections of the occurrence of flooding events for nine models under three climate change-related Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—2.6, 4.5, and 8.5—and three urban development scenarios have been carried out. The results suggest that cities should preserve the land uses that act as a sponge—the green, open and blue spaces. As these spaces decrease, the projected flooding events increase. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the number of flooding events is significantly lower (95 % confidence) than under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The expected flooding occurrences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are not significantly different (95 % confidence) for many scenarios, suggesting that Indian cities should aim for a world temperature increase of below 2 °C, or devastating consequences are imminent. This study highlights the need for Indian cities to undertake integrated spatial planning measures for a resilient, sustainable urban future.