Abstract This study aims to analyze the direct and spillover effects of agricultural productivity and other determinant variables on environmental quality in Java-Bali Island from 2015 to 2022. The data is in the form of a panel, sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Indonesian Ministry of Environment. The method used to answer the study objectives is through a spatial autoregressive model (SAR) with a weighting matrix of three nearest neighbors. The results show that the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors and the industrial sector are the biggest contributors to environmental damage in Java-Bali. Meanwhile, increasing real GRDP per capita and the burden of dependent workers can actually improve environmental quality. Meanwhile, democracy has not been able to play an important role in environmental issues. The implication is that a strong commitment is needed to change production habits, especially the agricultural and industrial sectors that are more environmentally friendly with innovation and utilization of technology. The concentration of democratic activities in responding to environmental issues also needs to be strengthened.
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