Abstract Accurate production prediction plays a crucial role in well fault diagnosis and parameter optimization, significantly contributing to the advancement of oilfield digital construction. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of beam pumping machines to establish a calculation model for the power diagram of rod pumping systems. The solution involves employing the finite difference method and Fourier series method, facilitating the transition from the suspension point work diagram to the pump work diagram. The effective stroke of the plunger is determined by analyzing the opening and closing points of the Ver using the maximum curvature analysis method. Subsequently, the leakage and volume coefficients are derived by integrating on-site production data, culminating in the realization of an oil well production calculation method based on the suspension work diagram. The compilation of the pump power chart and oil well production calculation program was executed using QT 6.2.3. Comparative analysis with measured production data revealed an average accuracy of 90.05% using the finite difference method, surpassing the performance of the Fourier series algorithm. The established model not only offers a reliable means of predicting production but also provides valuable technical support for the digital and intelligent applications within the oilfield.