Rochester Epidemiology Project Research Articles

Discordance Between Very Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Increases Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Geographically Defined Cohort.

Clinical risk scores are used to identify those at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Despite preventative efforts, residual risk remains for many individuals. Very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) and lipid discordance could be contributors to the residual risk of ASCVD. Cardiovascular disease-free residents, aged ≥40 years, living in Olmsted County, Minnesota, were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and VLDL-C were estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels using the Sampson equation. Participants were categorized into concordant and discordant lipid pairings based on clinical cut points. Rates of incident ASCVD, including percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, or myocardial infarction, were calculated during follow-up. The association of LDL-C and VLDL-C with ASCVD was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was assessed. The study population (n=39 098) was primarily White race (94%) and female sex (57%), with a mean age of 54 years. VLDL-C (per 10-mg/dL increase) was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09]; P<0.001]) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was not statistically significant (P=0.11). Discordant individuals with high VLDL-C and low LDL-C experienced the highest rate of incident ASCVD events, 16.9 per 1000 person-years, during follow-up. VLDL-C and lipid discordance are associated with a greater risk of ASCVD and can be estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels to improve ASCVD risk assessment.

Spatiotemporal changes in imaging features associated with diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH)

ObjectivesThe purpose of our study was to characterise spatiotemporal features of disease progression in people with diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH), early-phase DISH, and those not meeting either criterion who...

The occurrence of mental health symptoms in isotretinoin-treated adolescents.

Isotretinoin treatment for acne can reduce adverse psychiatric outcomes in adults, but there has been little investigation of the incidence of psychiatric outcomes in treated adolescents. This retrospective cohort study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project identified 606 patients aged 12-18 prescribed isotretinoin over a 10-year period between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017. Medical records were reviewed to identify psychiatric diagnoses before and during isotretinoin therapy, as well as psychiatric symptoms not captured by formal diagnoses and changes to isotretinoin dosing because of psychiatric diagnoses or symptoms. One hundred seventy-seven (29.2%) had a psychiatric diagnosis prior to isotretinoin initiation, but 98 (16.2%) had a new psychiatric diagnosis or psychiatric symptom while taking isotretinoin. Patients with a psychiatric history were no more likely than those without to receive a new psychiatric diagnosis during treatment (4.5% vs. 3.7%; p = .650), but did experience more psychiatric symptoms, primarily low mood and mood swings (23.7% vs. 7.7%; p < .001). Only 25.5% of the 98 with a new psychiatric diagnosis or psychiatric symptom had a subsequent dose change. A dose change was more likely if patients received a new psychiatric diagnosis (41.7% vs. 20.3%; p = .037) or patients did not have a psychosocial explanation for psychiatric symptoms (34.4% vs. 10.8%; p = .009). A substantial proportion of adolescent patients prescribed isotretinoin had a prior psychiatric diagnosis.This predicts more psychiatric symptoms during isotretinoin treatment. Adolescents with a psychiatric history who have worsening symptoms and those with new-onset psychiatric symptoms would benefit from close monitoring while taking isotretinoin.

Ocular Manifestations of Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Study.

To evaluate the population-based frequency and severity of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related ocular diseases. Retrospective, population-based study examining patients with MS between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2011. Patients were identified using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, which is a record-linkage system of medical records for all patient-physician encounters among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents. Diagnosis of MS was confirmed based on neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid studies, and serum studies for each patient according to the 2017 McDonald criteria. Patient data were obtained using the medical records and followed through April 1, 2018. Of the 116 patients with MS, 66% were female and the median age of onset was 36 years (interquartile range 27.5-43.5 years). About half (61/116, 53%) had MS-related neuro-ophthalmic manifestations during their disease course, and about one-fourth (33/116, 28%) had visual symptoms as their presenting symptom of MS, most commonly as optic neuritis (26/116, 22%). Optic neuritis was the leading MS-related ocular condition (37%), followed by internuclear ophthalmoplegia (16%) and nystagmus (13%). Optic neuritis was mostly unilateral (40/43, 93%), with 16% (6/43) having a visual acuity of 20/200 or worse at nadir but ultimately 95% (35/37) improving to a visual acuity of 20/40 or better. This study provides the population-based frequency of MS-related ocular disease, which demonstrates a high frequency of ocular manifestations in MS both at disease onset and during the disease course, emphasizing the utility of neuro-ophthalmologists, or collaboration between neurologists and ophthalmologists, in the care of patients with MS.

Reexamining the Incidence of Nonarteritic Anterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy: A Rochester Epidemiology Project Study.

This study aims to determine the population-based incidence and characterize the features of nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP). All patients diagnosed with an optic neuropathy from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2016, were retrospectively reviewed to identify incident cases of NAION using the REP database, which is a record-linkage system of medical records for all patient-physician encounters among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents. The overall incidence of NAION was estimated using the age-specific and sex-specific population figures for Olmsted County census data for 1990 through 2016. Visual outcomes and risk factors were evaluated. The systemic risk factors were compared with age-matched controls. One hundred four patients were diagnosed with NAION during the 26-year study period. The overall age and sex adjusted incidence was 3.89 per 100,000 individuals (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.14-4.65). The incidence was 7.73 (CI: 6.24-9.22) in patients aged 40 years or older and 10.19 (CI: 8.15-12.23) in patients aged 50 years or older. Median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 40-90 years), and 59 (56.7%) were male. The median logMAR visual acuity at presentation was 0.35 (Snellen equivalent of 20/40) with 14 patients (13.5%) having vision of counting fingers or worse. Among the 91 patients with final visual acuity outcome data available, the median visual acuity was 0.40 (Snellen equivalent of 20/50) with 12 patients (13.2%) having vision of counting fingers or worse. Twenty-four patients (26.4%) were noted to have final acuity at least 3 Snellen lines worse than at presentation, whereas 17 patients (18.7%) were noted to improve by at least 3 lines. The median mean deviation on automated visual field testing was -10.2 dB at presentation and -11.1 dB at follow-up. Twenty-two patients (21.2%) suffered NAION in the fellow eye; the median interval between involvement of the first and second eyes was 1.39 years. Systemic diseases present in the NAION cohort included hypertension (79.8%), diabetes mellitus (39.4%), obstructive sleep apnea (23.1%), and hyperlipidemia (74.0%), which were all statistically higher than age-matched controls. NAION is a relatively common optic neuropathy in elderly patients with vascular risk factors. Our data indicate that the incidence of NAION has remained relatively stable in the population of Olmsted County over the past 4 decades.

Trends in the 30-year span of noninfectious cardiovascular implantable electronic device complications in Olmsted County

Cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs), such as permanent pacemakers, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices, alleviate morbidity and mortality in various diseases. There is a paucity of real-world data on CIED complications and trends. We sought to describe trends in noninfectious CIED complications over the past 3 decades in Olmsted County. The Rochester Epidemiology Project is a medical records linkage system comprising records of over 500,000 residents of Olmsted County from 1966 to present. CIED implantations between 1988 and 2018 were determined. Trends in noninfectious complications within 30 days of implantation were analyzed. A total of 157 (6.2%) of 2536 patients who received CIED experienced device complications. A total of 2.7% of the implants had major complications requiring intervention. Lead dislodgement was the most common (2.8%), followed by hematoma (1.7%). Complications went up from 1988 to 2005, and then showed a downtrend until 2018, driven by a decline in hematomas in the last decade (P < .01). Those with complications were more likely to have prosthetic valves. Obesity appeared to have a protective effect in a multivariate regression model. The mean Charlson comorbidity index has trended up over the 30 years. Our study describes a real-world trend of CIED complications over 3 decades. Lead dislodgements and hematomas were the most common complications. Complications have declined over the last decade due to safer practices and a better understanding of anticoagulant management.

Disparities in Influenza, Pneumococcal, COVID-19 Vaccine Coverage in High-Risk Adults Aged 19 to 64 Years in Southeastern Minnesota, 2010-2021

Despite effective vaccines against influenza, pneumococcus, and COVID-19, uptake has been suboptimal. Although disparities in vaccination by race and ethnicity have been observed, what is the role of other sociodemographic in US vaccine uptake? We conducted a population-based study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a comprehensive medical records linkage system, to assess effects of sociodemographic factors including race, ethnicity, individual-level socioeconomic status (SES) via the housing-based socioeconomic status index, education, population density (urban or nonurban), and marital status with uptake of influenza, pneumococcal, and COVID-19 vaccination in high-risk adults. Adults at high risk of invasive pneumococcal disease residing in four counties in southeastern Minnesota who were 19 to 64 years of age were identified. Vaccination data were obtained from the Minnesota Immunization Information Connection and REP from January 1, 2010, through December 31,2021. We identified 45,755 residents. Most were White (82%), non-Hispanic (94%), married (56%), and living in an urban setting (81%), with three-quarters obtaining at least some college education (74%). Although 45.1%were up-to-date on pneumococcal vaccines, 60.1%had completed the primary COVID-19 series. For influenza and COVID-19, higher SES, living in an urban setting, older age, and higher education positively correlated with vaccination. Magnitude of differences in race, education, and SES widened with booster vaccines. This high-risk population is undervaccinated against preventable respiratory diseases, especially influenza and pneumococcus. Although national data reported improvement of disparities in COVID-19 vaccination uptake observed early in the pandemic, our data demonstrated gaps related to race, education level, SES, and age that widened with booster vaccines. Communities with high social vulnerabilities often show increased risk of severe disease outcomes, yet demonstrate lower uptake of preventive services. This highlights the need to understand better vaccine compliance and access in rural, lower SES, less-educated, Black, Hispanic, and younger populations, each of which were associated independently with decreased vaccination.

Multimorbidity in Psoriasis as a Risk Factor for Psoriatic Arthritis: A Population-Based Study.

To examine multimorbidity in psoriasis and its association with the development of PsA. A retrospective cohort study was performed using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Population-based incidence (2000-2009) and prevalence (Jan 1, 2010) cohorts of psoriasis were identified by manual chart review. A cohort of individuals without psoriasis (comparators) were identified (1:1 matched on age, sex, and county). Morbidities were defined using ≥2 Clinical Classification Software codes ≥30 days apart within prior five years. PsA was defined using ClASsification of Psoriatic ARthritis (CASPAR) criteria. χ2 and rank-sum tests were used to compare morbidities, and age-, sex-, and race-adjusted Cox models to examine the association of baseline morbidities in psoriasis with development of PsA. Among 817 incident psoriasis patients, the mean age was 45.2 years with 52.0% females, and 82.0% moderate/severe psoriasis. No multimorbidity differences were found between incident psoriasis patients and comparators. However, in the 1,088 prevalent psoriasis patients, multimorbidity was significantly more common compared with 1,086 comparators (OR : 1.35 and OR : 1.48 for ≥2 and ≥5 morbidities, respectively). Over a median 13.3-year follow-up, 23 patients (cumulative incidence: 2.9% by 15 years) developed PsA. Multimorbidity (≥2 morbidities) was associated with a 3-fold higher risk of developing PsA. Multimorbidity was more common in the prevalent but not incident cohort of psoriasis compared with the general population, suggesting patients with psoriasis may experience accelerated development of multimorbidity. Moreover, multimorbidity at psoriasis onset significantly increased the risk of developing PsA, highlighting the importance of monitoring multimorbid psoriasis patients for the development of PsA.

Fracture Risk Among Living Kidney Donors 25 Years After Donation

Living kidney donors may have an increased risk of fractures due to reductions in kidney mass, lower concentrations of serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, and secondary increases in serum parathyroid hormone. To compare the overall and site-specific risk of fractures among living kidney donors with strictly matched controls from the general population who would have been eligible to donate a kidney but did not do so. This survey study was conducted between December 1, 2021, and July 31, 2023. A total of 5065 living kidney donors from 3 large transplant centers in Minnesota were invited to complete a survey about their bone health and history of fractures, and 16 156 population-based nondonor controls without a history of comorbidities that would have precluded kidney donation were identified from the Rochester Epidemiology Project and completed the same survey. A total of 2132 living kidney donors and 2014 nondonor controls responded to the survey. Statistical analyses were performed from May to August 2023. Living kidney donation. The rates of overall and site-specific fractures were compared between living kidney donors and controls using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). At the time of survey, the 2132 living kidney donors had a mean (SD) age of 67.1 (8.9) years and included 1245 women (58.4%), and the 2014 controls had a mean (SD) age of 68.6 (7.9) years and included 1140 women (56.6%). The mean (SD) time between donation or index date and survey date was 24.2 (10.4) years for donors and 27.6 (10.7) years for controls. The overall rate of fractures among living kidney donors was significantly lower than among controls (SIR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.97). However, there were significantly more vertebral fractures among living kidney donors than among controls (SIR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.05-1.83). This survey study found a reduced rate of overall fractures but an excess of vertebral fractures among living kidney donors compared with controls after a mean follow-up of 25 years. Treatment of excess vertebral fractures with dietary supplements such as vitamin D3 may reduce the numbers of vertebral fractures and patient morbidity.

Disparities in Medical Assessment Practices for Adolescents at Risk for Eating Disorders

PurposeThe United States Preventative Services Task Force found insufficient evidence to support universal screening for eating disorders (EDs) but did recommend assessing high-risk adolescents through laboratory tests, close follow-up, and referrals to other specialties. Yet, it is unclear whether youth at high risk for EDs receive such assessment and whether patient characteristics influence such practices. MethodsUsing the Rochester Epidemiological Project, we identified adolescents (13–18 years) at risk for EDs (i.e., weight loss, underweight, or loss of appetite not explained by a medical condition) who presented for a medical appointment between January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 (n = 662; M age = 15.8 years; 66% female; 76% white). Patient and visit characteristics, assessment practices (i.e., tests, referrals, and follow-up), and ED diagnoses within 5 years following index visit were extracted. ResultsAdolescents who received referrals to other providers were 4 times more likely to be diagnosed with a future ED (p < .001) and were diagnosed 137.8 days sooner (Est = −137.8, p = .04) compared to those who did not receive referrals. Compared to males, females were 2.2 times more likely to receive referrals (p < .001). Compared to those presenting at a lower body mass index, adolescents with a higher body mass index were more likely to receive medical tests (HR = 1.0, p < .01) and less likely to receive recommendations to improve eating/weight (HR = 0.99, p < .01) or follow up visits (HR = 0.99, p < .01). DiscussionDisparities in assessment practices for adolescents at high-risk for EDs underscore the need for improved tools to enhance early detection and treatment.

Factors associated with suicide attempts in the antecedent illness trajectory of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia

BackgroundFactors associated with suicide attempts during the antecedent illness trajectory of bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SZ) are poorly understood.MethodsUtilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project, individuals born after 1985 in Olmsted County, MN, presented with first episode mania (FEM) or psychosis (FEP), subsequently diagnosed with BD or SZ were identified. Patient demographics, suicidal ideation with plan, self-harm, suicide attempts, psychiatric hospitalizations, substance use, and childhood adversities were quantified using the electronic health record. Analyses pooled BD and SZ groups with a transdiagnostic approach given the two diseases were not yet differentiated. Factors associated with suicide attempts were examined using bivariate methods and multivariable logistic regression modeling.ResultsA total of 205 individuals with FEM or FEP (BD = 74, SZ = 131) were included. Suicide attempts were identified in 39 (19%) patients. Those with suicide attempts during antecedent illness trajectory were more likely to be female, victims of domestic violence or bullying behavior, and have higher rates of psychiatric hospitalizations, suicidal ideation with plan and/or self-harm, as well as alcohol, drug, and nicotine use before FEM/FEP onset. Based on multivariable logistic regression, three factors remained independently associated with suicidal attempts: psychiatric hospitalization (OR = 5.84, 95% CI 2.09–16.33, p < 0.001), self-harm (OR = 3.46, 95% CI 1.29–9.30, p = 0.014), and nicotine use (OR = 3.02, 95% CI 1.17–7.76, p = 0.022).ConclusionSuicidal attempts were prevalent during the antecedents of BD and SZ and were associated with several risk factors before FEM/FEP. Their clinical recognition could contribute to improve early prediction and prevention of suicide during the antecedent illness trajectory of BD and SZ.

Neuropsychiatric symptoms and risk of cognitive impairment: Mayo Clinic Study of Aging

AbstractBackgroundMost studies on the relationship between neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) and cognitive decline focus on NPS data collected over a short period of time. To better understand the association between NPS and cognitive decline, including their temporal relationship, it is important to know NPS status across a person’s life.MethodWe utilized the unique Rochester Epidemiology Project medical record linkage system that has captured medical records as far back as 1907, to abstract the psychiatric history of 1810 cognitively unimpaired participants in the population‐based Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA). Trained nurse abstractors ascertained the presence of exposure to three common NPS (anxiety, depression, and unspecified emotional distress [UED]), both before and after entry into the MCSA. We conducted Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) models using age as the time scale and adjusting for sex, education, and APOE E4 allele for each NPS in predicting mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia. Additional analyses considering medication use (yes/no) and timing of NPS were also run.ResultAnxiety (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.47, p&lt;0.001), depression (HR = 1.36, p = 0.001), and UED (HR = 1.22, p = 0.039) were associated with a higher risk of MCI. These associations were present regardless of medication use for anxiety (With medication: HR = 1.51, p&lt;0.001; without medication: HR = 1.41, p = 0.015), and for those taking medications for depression (With medication: HR = 1.47, p&lt;0.001; without medication: 1.09, p = 0.597). Anxiety was associated with MCI regardless of timing of onset with the strongest relationship being for those with onset of anxiety before 65 that persisted into later life (HR = 1.88, p = 0.004). Depression was associated regardless of timing of onset if the depression was present in late life too. The results were similar for the outcome of dementia (Anxiety: HR = 1.62, p&lt;0.001; depression: HR = 1.31, p = 0.040; UED: HR = 1.37, p = 0.014). The associations accounting for medication use and timing of NPS were similar for the outcome of dementia too.ConclusionNPS is associated with progression to MCI and dementia. Both medication use and timing of NPS might play a role in these associations.

Abstract 17189: Association Between an Artificial Intelligence-Enabled ECG Algorithm for Detection of Atrial Fibrillation While in Sinus Rhythm, and Hospitalization for Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in the Community

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) can estimate the probability of having atrial fibrillation (AFib) while in sinus rhythm. Recurrent stroke in subjects without known AFib may be due to undiagnosed AFib. We evaluated the association between AI-ECG AFib and recurrent ischemic stroke and with incident AFib Methods: Consecutive adults admitted to a Mayo Clinic or Mayo Clinic Health System hospital or to Olmsted Community Hospital for ischemic stroke between January,1,2000 and June,30,2022 were identified using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Recurrent ischemic strokes were identified after reviewing medical records and imaging studies. We excluded those with known AFib or without ECGs within 3 years prior to the first ischemic stroke. The AI-ECG network was previously developed using 649,931 ECGs from &gt; 180,000 subjects. The primary endpoint was recurrent ischemic stroke; secondary endpoint was incident AFib. Cox model adjusted for age, sex, and CHA2DS2-VASc2 score variables. Results: We included 4,816 subjects, mean age 70±15 yr, 54% male, 92% white, median CHA2DS2-VASc2 score 4 [3-5], median follow-up 3 [1-7] yr. 280 subjects (6%) had a second stroke and 366 (8%) were diagnosed with incident AFib over follow-up. Those with a positive AI-ECG AFib had an increased risk for recurrent ischemic stroke(HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21-1.96, P&lt;0.001 Figure A) This association remained significant after adjustment for CHA2DS2-VASc2 score(HR 1.37 95% CI 1.07-1.76, P=0.01). These associations were not affected by anticoagulation use over follow-up. AI-ECG AFib was also associated with incident AFib(HR 2.42 95% CI 1.96-2.98, P&lt;0.001 Figure B) Conclusions: AI-ECG AFib predicts recurrent ischemic stroke in the community, possibly reflecting undiagnosed AFib that can be detected by AI-ECG, as it also predicts incident AFib. These results underscore the potential utility of AI-ECG for risk stratification of patients with ischemic stroke.

Incidence and Outcomes of Bloodstream Infection After Arterial Aneurysm Repair: Findings From a Population-Based Study.

Limited research has focused on bloodstream infection (BSI) in patients with arterial grafts. This study aims to describe the incidence and outcomes of BSI after arterial aneurysm repair in a population-based cohort. The expanded Rochester Epidemiology Project (e-REP) was used to analyze aneurysm repairs in adults (aged ≥18 years) residing in 8 counties in southern Minnesota from January 2010 to December 2020. Electronic records were reviewed for the first episode of BSI following aneurysm repair. BSI patients were assessed for vascular graft infection (VGI) and followed for all-cause mortality. During the study, 643 patients had 706 aneurysm repairs: 416 endovascular repairs (EVARs) and 290 open surgical repairs (OSRs). Forty-two patients developed BSI during follow-up. The 5-year cumulative incidence of BSI was 4.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0%-6.4%), with rates of 4.0% (95% CI, 1.8%-6.2%) in the EVAR group and 5.8% (95% CI, 2.9%-8.6%) in the OSR group (P = .052). Thirty-nine (92.9%) BSI cases were monomicrobial, 33 of which were evaluated for VGI. VGI was diagnosed in 30.3% (10/33), accounting for 50.0% (8/16) of gram-positive BSI cases compared to 11.8% (2/17) of gram-negative BSI cases (P = .017). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative post-BSI all-cause mortality rates were 22.2% (95% CI, 8.3%-34.0%), 55.8% (95% CI, 32.1%-71.2%), and 76.8% (95% CI, 44.3%-90.3%), respectively. The incidence of BSI following aneurysm repair was overall low. VGI was more common with gram-positive compared to gram-negative BSI. All-cause mortality following BSI was high, which may be attributed to advanced age and significant comorbidities in our cohort.

Long-Term Outcomes and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic cysts that can give rise to pancreatic cancer (PC). Limited population data exist on their prevalence, natural history, or risk of malignant transformation (IPMN-PC). To fill knowledge gaps in epidemiology of IPMNs and associated PC risk by estimating population prevalence of IPMNs, associated PC risk, and proportion of IPMN-PC. : This retrospective cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), patients aged 50 years and older with abdominal computed tomography (CT) scans between 2000 and 2015 were randomly selected (CT cohort). All patients from the REP with PC between 2000 and 2019 were also selected (PC cohort). Data were analyzed from November 2021 through August 2023. CIs for PC incidence estimates were calculated using exact methods with the Poisson distribution. Cox models were used to estimate age, sex, and stage-adjusted hazard ratios for time-to-event end points. The CT cohort included 2114 patients (1140 females [53.9%]; mean [SD] age, 68.6 [12.1] years). IPMNs were identified in 231 patients (10.9%; 95% CI, 9.7%-12.3%), most of which were branch duct (210 branch-duct [90.9%], 16 main-duct [6.9%], and 5 mixed [2.2%] IPMNs). There were 5 Fukuoka high-risk (F-HR) IPMNs (2.2%), 39 worrisome (F-W) IPMNs (16.9%), and 187 negative (F-N) IPMNs (81.0%). After a median (IQR) follow-up of 12.0 (8.1-15.3) years, 4 patients developed PC (2 patients in F-HR and 2 patients in F-N groups). The PC incidence rate per 100 person years for F-HR IPMNs was 34.06 incidents (95% CI, 4.12-123.02 incidents) and not significantly different for patients with F-N IPMNs compared with patients without IPMNs (0.16 patients; 95% CI, 0.02-0.57 patients vs 0.11 patients; 95% CI, 0.06-0.17 patients; P = .62). The PC cohort included 320 patients (155 females [48.4%]; mean [SD] age, 72.0 [12.3] years), and 9.8% (95% CI, 7.0%-13.7%) had IPMN-PC. Compared with 284 patients with non-IPMN PC, 31 patients with IPMN-PC were older (mean [SD] age, 76.9 [9.2] vs 71.3 [12.5] years; P = .02) and more likely to undergo surgical resection (14 patients [45.2%] vs 60 patients [21.1%]; P = .003) and more-frequently had nonmetastatic PC at diagnosis (20 patients [64.5%] vs 130 patients [46.8%]; P = .047). Patients with IPMN-PC had better survival (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40-0.94; P = .03) than patients with non-IPMN PC. In this study, CTs identified IPMNs in approximately 10% of patients aged 50 years or older. PC risk in patients with F-N IPMNs was low and not different compared with patients without IPMNs; approximately 10% of patients with PC had IPMN-PC, and they had better survival compared with patients with non-IPMN PC.

FRI129 Adrenal Insufficiency In Olmsted County, MN, USA: A Population-Based Study

Abstract Disclosure: M. Moazzami: Grant Recipient; Self; Rochester Epidemiology Project. S. Achenbach: None. E. Atkinson: None. I. Bancos: None. Background: Epidemiology of adrenal insufficiency (AI) is incompletely characterized with most data originating from referral centers and registries. We aimed to determine the incidence, morbidity index, risk of hospitalizations, and mortality in patients with AI living in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Methods: We assessed the standardized incidence rate, morbidity index, risk of hospitalizations and mortality of AI in residents (aged 18+) in Olmsted County, MN, USA, from Jan 1, 2005, to December 31, 2021. The data was collected using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP), a database of medical records for all Olmsted County residents since 1966. Incidence rates were standardized for age and sex according to the 2020 US white population. Sex- and age- matched referent subjects were selected from the REP. AI was defined based on presence of oral chronic glucocorticoid therapy (hydrocortisone, prednisone, prednisolone, or dexamethasone) defined as (1) any hydrocortisone use or (2) 6 months of consecutive use of prednisone, prednisolone, or dexamethasone or (3) two AI diagnosis codes 6+ months apart plus at least one glucocorticoid prescription within 1 year of the second diagnosis. Elixhauser morbidity index was used. Findings: Between 2005 and 2021, 5419 patients were diagnosed with AI (median age of 62 years, range 18-103), 56% women). Overall standardized incidence rates for AI increased from 206 (95% CI 174-238) in 2005 to 252 (223-280) per 100 000 person-years in 2021. At baseline, patients with AI had a higher morbidity index (median 3 vs median 1, p &amp;lt;0.001) and a higher history of hospitalizations within 5 years prior to baseline (57% vs 30%; p&amp;lt;0.001) when compared to referent subjects. When comparing patients with AI to referent subjects, and after adjusting for age, sex, morbidity index and prior history of hospitalizations, patients with AI were more likely to be hospitalized during follow-up (aHR 1.4, 95% CI 1.3-1.5). When comparing patients with AI to referent subjects, and after adjusting age, sex, and morbidity index, patients with AI had higher mortality (aHR 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.9). Patients with AI demonstrated a higher risk of dying from musculoskeletal disorders (aHR 4.9, 95% CI 2.2-10.8), respiratory disorders (aHR 4.7, 95% CI 3.3-6.6), neoplasms (aHR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0-2.9), and infectious disorders (aHR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.3) than referent subjects. Interpretation: We demonstrate an increase in AI incidence between 2005 and 2021. Surprisingly, even after controlling for morbidity and prior hospitalizations, patients with AI were more likely to be hospitalized. In comparison to referent subjects, mortality was higher in patients with AI, even after adjustment for morbidity index. Presentation: Friday, June 16, 2023

FRI541 The Epidemiology Of Thyroid Eye Disease In Olmsted County, Minnesota

Abstract Disclosure: K.N. Rachmasari: None. P. Thapa: None. D. Sighoko: Employee; Self; Horizon Therapeutics. L. Abdul Jabbar: None. M.N. Stan: None. Objective: To describe the epidemiology of Thyroid Eye Disease (TED). Methods: A population-based cohort of all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who had newly diagnosed TED between April 3, 2002, and December 31, 2021, was identified through the medical diagnostic index of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Individuals aged 18 years and older were included. Incidence rates and point prevalence were calculated. Results: We identified 137 incident patients, of whom 124 (90.5%) were female (p &amp;lt; 0.0001). The overall incidence was 6.24 cases/100,000 person-years in Olmsted County, corresponding to 6.25 cases/100,000 person-years for the US population (age and sex adjusted incidence). Women had higher incidence (10.94 cases/ 100,000 person-years) compared to men (1.22 cases/100,000 person-years). The distribution of incidence rates by ten-year age groups demonstrated peak incidence rates in the age groups 70 to 79 years (17.94 cases/100,000 person-years for women compared with 4.04 cases for men). The majority of cases (77/137) occurred between 50-79 years of age. No clear trend was identified for the yearly incidence between 2002 and 2021. The overall estimated point prevalence per 100,000 was 65.6 (95% CI, 57.8 – 72.9). Prevalence was 117.6 (95% CI, 96.5 – 141.4) for females and 11.2 (95% CI, 5.1 – 21.2) for males (p &amp;lt; 0.0001). Conclusions: Incidence rates for TED remained stable and significant over the last 2 decades. Majority of disease burden is present after the age of 50 with the peak between 70-79 years, a decade later than in the previous study from our population (1). Based on reported incidence and prevalence of Graves’ disease (2), our data indicates that TED continues to affect about 20-30% of that population and appropriate resources should be devoted to furthering education, management, and research into this condition.

Increasing Incidence and Decreasing Mortality of Melanoma in Elderly Adults: An Epidemiologic Study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

Primary cutaneous melanoma incidence is increasing in elderly individuals. This population-based cohort examines incidence and mortality rates among adults aged 61 years and older with cutaneous melanoma. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, patients aged 61 years of age or older with a first lifetime diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma between January 1, 1970 and December 31, 2020 were identified. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate increased from 16.4 (95% CI, 8.2-24.6) per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 1979 to 201.5 (95% CI, 185.1-217.8) per 100,000 person-years in 2011 to 2020 (12.3-fold increase). There was a 16.0x increase in males and an 8.5× increase in females. Melanoma incidence has stabilized in males (1.2-fold increase, p = .11) and continues to significantly increase in females (2.7-fold increase, p < .001). Older age at diagnosis was significantly associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.23 per 5-year increase in age at diagnosis, 95% CI, 1.02-1.47). Melanoma incidence continues to increase since 1970. The incidence has risen in elderly females, but has stabilized in males. Mortality has decreased throughout this period.

Performance of the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Cardiovascular Risk Equations in Clinical Practice

BackgroundThe performance of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation (PCE) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in real-world clinical practice has not been evaluated extensively. ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to test the performance of PCE to predict ASCVD risk in the community, and determine if including individuals with values outside the PCE range (ie, age, blood pressure, cholesterol) or statin therapy initiation over follow-up would significantly affect PCE predictive capabilities. MethodsThe PCE was validated in a community-based cohort of consecutive patients who sought primary care in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1997 and 2000, followed-up through 2016. Inclusion criteria were similar to those of PCE derivation. Patient information was ascertained by using the record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. ASCVD events (nonfatal and fatal myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were validated in duplicate. Calculated and observed ASCVD risk and c-statistics were compared across predefined groups. ResultsThis study included 30,042 adults, with a mean age of 48.5 ± 12.2 years; 46% were male. Median follow-up was 16.5 years, truncated at 10 years for this analysis. Mean ASCVD risk was 5.6% ± 8.73%. There were 1,555 ASCVD events (5.2%). The PCE revealed good performance overall (c-statistic 0.78) and in sex and race subgroups; it was highest among non-White female subjects (c-statistic 0.81) and lowest in White male subjects (c-statistic 0.77). Out-of-range values and initiation of statin medication did not affect model performance. ConclusionsThe PCE performed well in a community cohort representing real-world clinical practice. Values outside PCE ranges and initiation of statin medication did not affect performance. These results have implications for the applicability of current strategies for the prevention of ASCVD.

Cancer incidence in the Somali population of Olmsted County: A Rochester epidemiology project study.

Somali immigrants and refugees constitute one of the largest African ethnic groups immigrating to the United States over the past three decades with the majority resettling in the state of Minnesota. Previous studies have documented significant cancer screening disparities between the Somali population and the general population. However, little is known about cancer incidence among Somali groups living in the United States. We determined the incidence of 18 types or sites of malignancy using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes and compared them between Somali and non-Somali populations in Olmsted County, Minnesota utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage infrastructure for the years 2000-2020. Poisson regression models were used to model the rates for each malignancy. There was a higher incidence and relative risk of liver malignancies among the Somali population versus non-Somali population, but lower relative risk and incidence of the following malignancies: breast, cervical, and melanoma. After direct age-sex adjustment to the United States 2000 Census population, liver was the most common cancer in Somali men, while breast cancer was the most common malignancy in women. Malignancies related to infectious agents such as viral hepatitis have a higher incidence in the Somali immigrant population of Olmsted County. There is a lower incidence of malignancies related to lifestyle factors in this Somali population. Findings of this study may help inform cancer prevention and screening strategies among Somali communities in the United States.