Road Initiative Countries Research Articles

Institutional quality configuration for encouraging private capital participation in PPP projects: evidence from 36 belt and road countries

PurposeThis study aims to explore how institutional quality impacts private capital participation in large-scale infrastructure development, particularly in public–private partnership (PPP) projects, aiming to enhance incentives for private sector involvement.Design/methodology/approachBuilding on new institutional theory, a triangular theoretical framework was constructed to analyze the high participation of private capital in PPP projects, focusing on seven key institutional factors. Data from 1,319 PPP projects across 36 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2015 to 2020 were then analyzed using a combination of necessary condition analysis (NCA) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to evaluate the combined impact and interactions of these factors.FindingsResults indicate that high private capital participation does not hinge on a single institutional quality factor but results from the synergistic influence of multiple factors. The paths leading to high private capital participation can be categorized as regulatory-led, normative-cognitive synergistic, regulatory-normative synergistic and institutional failure-led. Among these, regulatory quality plays a central role in the regulatory-led; the synergy between political stability and voice and accountability is pivotal in the normative-cognitive synergistic, and the rule of law, in combination with voice and accountability, is essential to the regulatory-normative synergistic.Originality/valueThis research systematically examines the multidimensional impact of institutional quality, revealing how different institutional factors interact to influence private capital’s willingness to participate and behavior. It enriches applied research in institutional economics within PPP projects and provides a new theoretical perspective and methodological framework to the scholarly community.

The pathway to sustainable development: The roles of financial development, technological innovation, and educational development in energy poverty alleviation

AbstractThis paper investigates the dynamics of energy poverty by evaluating the roles played by financial development, technological innovation, and educational development, among other factors. It seeks to identify pathways for sustainable development in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Based on recent panel data from 2000 to 2020, this research classified the sample into various income groups for a comparative analysis. A multidimensional comprehensive index of energy poverty was then formulated through principal component analysis (PCA). This study assesses the relationships between variables using a novel panel quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL), ordinary least squares (OLS), panel unit root tests, Kao cointegration tests, and Wald tests. The results of the Kao tests confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables across all income groups and the overall sample. The panel QARDL approach indicates a significant and negative long‐term relationship between financial development and energy poverty across all income groups other than the low‐income countries. Similarly, technological innovation has a negative long‐term association with energy poverty for most groups, with the exception being the upper‐to‐middle‐income countries. Furthermore, educational development negatively influences energy poverty in the long term for all groups other than lower‐middle‐income countries. The findings for the overall sample suggest that financial and educational development are negatively connected with energy poverty in both the long and short term, while technological innovation only has a negative connection in the short term. In addition, the Wald test results revealed time‐varying integration and parameter stability in both the long and short terms.

The influence of economic determinants on CO2 emissions in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries.

CO2 emissions in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries are precisely influenced by economic determinants, requiring a comprehensive perspective. The BRI can augment its prospects for sustainable development by acknowledging the obstacles it faces and promoting global collaboration. Examining the CO2 emission (CO2e) in BRI countries in response to economic determinants such as financial development (FD), income distribution (ID), foreign direct investment (FDI), economic complexity index (ECI), and economic growth (EG) will determine the study's long-term and short-term impacts. This study introduces a novel concept of CO2es by employing panel data from 1991 to 2020. Thus, the CD, Kao, Pedroni, FMOLS, and pooled mean group-autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) tests are utilized to assess cointegration. According to empirical findings, economic determinants (ECI, EG, FDI, and ID) have a statistically significant short-run and long-run impact on CO2e in BRI countries. Policymakers in BRI countries should integrate monetary development, FDI, and CO2es to foster EG, attract FDI, and promote sustainable development through regulatory frameworks.

A Review of Renewable Energy Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Countries: A Bibliometric Analysis Perspective

Since the proposal of the “Belt and Road” initiative (BRI) in 2013, China’s renewable energy investments in the countries along the route have shown rapid growth and diversification. These investments have shifted from initial product exports and engineering contracts to deeper equity investments and financing cooperation. They not only promote a global energy structure transformation towards green and low-carbon development but also bring significant economic growth and social progress to the participating countries. This study aims to systematically review the research status and trends of renewable energy investments in “Belt and Road” countries through comprehensive bibliometric analysis. Utilizing the Web of Science database and VOS viewer 1.6.17 software for visualization, this research reveals the publication trends, high-impact articles, institutional collaborations, and author networks in this field. Additionally, through keyword co-occurrence network analysis, three core research themes are identified: investment motivations, synergy effects, renewable energy consumption, and international cooperation. This systematic bibliometric analysis not only outlines the current research landscape but also provides important insights for identifying emerging research directions, thereby supporting more in-depth investigations into renewable energy investments within the “Belt and Road” initiative.

Systems Thinking of Marine Policies in Promoting Environmental Law, Sustainability, and Digital Technologies: Social Challenges in Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Systems Thinking of Marine Policies in Promoting Environmental Law, Sustainability, and Digital Technologies: Social Challenges in Belt and Road Initiative Countries

The impact of industrial robots on low-carbon green performance: Evidence from the belt and road initiative countries

Global warming is intensifying, with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries accounting for over two-thirds of global carbon dioxide emissions. As a pivotal technology in advanced manufacturing, industrial robots significantly impact the overall carbon footprint through their role in production processes. This study examines how the use of industrial robots influences the Low-Carbon Green Performance (LCGP) across BRI nations, utilizing a dataset spanning from 2004 to 2020. The findings reveal that the integration of industrial robots notably boosts the LCGP within these countries, a conclusion supported by extensive robustness evaluations. The novelty of this study lies in uncovering the underlying mechanism by which industrial robots improve LCGP through the promotion of technological innovation. Specifically, we find that industrial robots have a pronounced effect on technological progress (TC), an impact that is further amplified by increases in labor productivity and human capital levels. This discovery provides policy implications for BRI governments, suggesting that actively promoting the development of industrial robots can accelerate energy transformation and upgrading, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Our research fills a significant void concerning the environmental impact of industrial robots and offers new perspectives and strategies for BRI countries to achieve low-carbon development goals. These findings contribute significant theoretical and practical value to global environmental protection and sustainable development.

A study on the spatial correlation network structure and its influencing factors of coupling coordination between FDI flow network and carbon transfer network in the belt and road initiative countries

Clarifying the spatial correlation characteristics and influencing factors of coupling coordination between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow networks and carbon transfer networks in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is of utmost importance for the formulation of regional carbon governance strategies and the establishment of a high-quality Green Silk Road. This study used a comprehensive approach combining social network analysis and coupling coordination model to measure the coupling coordination degree of FDI flow networks and carbon transfer networks of 67 Belt and Road countries from 2010 to 2016. In addition, a modified gravity model is used to characterize the spatial correlation network structure of coupling coordination between the two networks, and the QAP regression analysis method is applied to investigate the factors influencing the spatial association network. The results are as follows: 1) The spatial correlation network of coupling coordination between the two networks has good accessibility and relatively high overall network stability. 2) Countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates occupy central positions in the network, while Bahrain and Jordan are positioned on the periphery of the network. 3) The spatial correlation network can be divided into three sectors: net outflow, net inflow, and bidirectional overflow sectors. 4) Spatial adjacency, bilateral investment treaties, economic development, and institutional quality have significant positive effects on the spatial association network, while the industrial structure and the level of infrastructure development have a significant negative impact. This study proposes an indicator system for the coupling coordination between FDI flow networks and carbon transfer networks. The aim is to investigate the coupling coordination relationship between FDI flow networks and carbon emission transfer networks in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, providing important guidance for the formulation of regional cooperative carbon emission reduction strategies in other regions.

Business environment and quality of economic development–Evidence from countries along the Belt and Road

This study examines the impact of the business environment on economic development quality in 66 Belt and Road Initiative countries from 2015 to 2020. It finds that the business environment significantly boosts economic development quality, with the total labor force serving as a mediating variable. Further analysis shows that the impact is more pronounced in countries with higher economic development levels, providing insights and a framework for countries aiming to enhance their economic development quality.

Green growth in belt and road initiative countries: exploring the interplay of agriculture production, technological innovation and environmental pollution

Green growth in belt and road initiative countries: exploring the interplay of agriculture production, technological innovation and environmental pollution

From Resource curse to digital economy Harmony in selected Belt and Road countries

This study explores how the digital economy affects the resource curse in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Using data from 27 BRI nations (2001–2020) and fixed effect panel data analysis, we find that increased digital access and technology imports reduce resource dependency. Specifically, a 1% rise in computers per 100 inhabitants correlates with a 0.17% decrease in oil rent, indicating digital access aids economic diversification. Conversely, a 1% increase in internet access tariffs leads to a 0.29% rise in oil rent, impeding diversification. Additionally, a 1% increase in ICT goods imports results in a 0.64% decrease in oil rent. Positive coefficients for electricity consumption and population size suggest intensified resource curse effects. We recommend policies to enhance digital accessibility and technology imports, improve electricity infrastructure, and promote renewable energy sources to mitigate the resource curse in BRI countries.

Analyzing the Influence of International Remittances on Multidimensional Poverty: Insights from BRI Countries

ABSTRACT Efforts to facilitate international remittances hold substantial potential to impact various dimensions of poverty, underscoring the importance of comprehending this relationship in developing economies. International remittances between Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries have shown a marked growth trajectory. Unlike other studies that focus on the impact of remittances on income-based poverty in developing countries, this research delves into a more comprehensive analysis of how remittances affect various facets of poverty. Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the broader global implications of international remittances on multidimensional poverty in selected BRI countries. This study applied Driscoll-Kraay and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square estimators to evaluate international remittances’ impact on MPI in BRI countries between 2010 and 2022. The results reflected a significant effect on countries that have contributed to the Belt and Road Initiative, with its impact on MPI courtesy of political stability, international remittances, agricultural growth, and forest plantation. Besides, the results of the Granger causality indicated a bi-directional causal link between forest plantation and MPI and a uni-directional causal link between MPI and international remittance. Countries along the BRI should enact policies to attract more remittances and design strategies to reduce unemployment and poverty.

The trade potential of grain crops in the countries along the Belt and Road: evidence from a stochastic frontier model

This study employs the stochastic frontier model (SFM) to analyze trade potential and efficiency in wheat and maize among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2002 to 2021, encompassing 45 countries for wheat trade and 55 for maize trade. The empirical findings reveal that economic development level, population growth, government efficiency, political stability, and regulatory quality are critical determinants of trade efficiency. Notably, World Trade Organization (WTO) membership exhibits a negative correlation with trade efficiency, potentially reflecting challenges in rule implementation and opportunity utilization among member states. In the context of maize trade, increased arable land area is inversely associated with efficiency, suggesting potential issues in managing large-scale agricultural regions or optimizing land use. The BRI’s impact on trade efficiency varies across countries, with Turkey and Hungary showing improved wheat trade efficiency, while Ethiopia and Georgia experienced declines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, effective disease management strategies and diversified trade mechanisms significantly influenced trade efficiency. Furthermore, the study reveals that larger economies do not necessarily outperform small and medium-sized economies in terms of trade potential. These findings contribute significantly to the literature on agricultural trade and offer valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of enhancing government efficiency, political stability, and regulatory quality in the context of regional economic development initiatives such as the BRI. This research underscores the need for tailored approaches to trade policy and agricultural management, considering the unique characteristics and challenges faced by different economies along BRI.

Impacts of trade facilitation on greenhouse gas emissions in the Belt and Road Initiative countries

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) trade facilitation could generate both economic and environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the resulting impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain unclear. Here we apply a global computable general equilibrium model to simulate the economic changes induced by BRI trade facilitation and thereby assess the GHG emissions burdens within China and the main economic corridors. We show that trade facilitation results in economic improvement at the expense of emissions for most BRI countries. Yet economic growth in these countries has outstripped emissions growth. Especially for countries within the New Eurasian Land Bridge (ELB), most of them even have achieved decoupling of economic growth from emissions under trade facilitation, which is mainly benefited from the decrease of non-CO2 GHG emissions. We stress that non-CO2 GHGs mitigation in more developing regions is essential to achieve an economic-environmental win-win state, in the context of future global trade liberalization.

Do circular economy, renewable energy, industrialization, and globalization influence environmental indicators in belt and road initiative countries?

This paper is the first comprehensive research to examine the effect of circular economy on environment employing two environmental degradation indicators (CO2 emissions, ecological footprint) and one environmental quality indicator (load capacity factor) for 57 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 2000-2019. The effect of other variables such as renewable energy, industrialization, and globalization was also controlled. The study applied the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag method (CS-ARDL), the augmented mean group (AMG), and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) methods as a robustness checks. The empirical findings reveal that circular economy and renewable energy have pro-environmental effects by decreasing carbon emissions and ecological footprint and increasing the load capacity factor in BRI countries. However, industrialization and globalization have detrimental effects on the environment. The result of causality shows a bidirectional causality between renewable energy, circular economy, industrialization, and three environmental indicators, but the relationship of globalization with CO2 emissions and the load capacity factor is unidirectional and with the ecological footprint is bidirectional. All the results are confirmed by the robustness tests. The study suggests policy implications for the BRI government.

The heterogeneous effects of transportation infrastructure on trade-embodied CO2 transfer: A multi-scale perspective

This paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of transportation infrastructure on trade-embodied CO2 emission (TEC) transfer. First, a multi-scale input-output (MSIO) model is developed to analyze the TEC from 31 Chinese provinces to 64 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Then, the panel quantile regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization methods are applied to estimate the impact of transportation infrastructure on TEC, taking into account the provincial heterogeneity. The main results are as follows: (1) The TEC of China's exports to BRI countries amounted to 311.01 Mt CO2 annually from 2012 to 2016, with significant variations in TEC characteristics among different Chinese provinces. (2) China's transportation infrastructure network density (TID) predominantly exhibited a negative impact on exported TEC across various quantiles. Specifically, a 1% increase in TID was associated with a decrease in TEC ranging from approximately 0.25% to 3.99%. (3) As quantiles increased, the impact of transportation-converted turnover in China on TEC also rose, with a range of 0.66% to 0.94%. This study identifies the crucial regions and sectors of TEC from a ‘provincial-national-global’ multi-scale perspective, and implies that strengthening the construction of transportation infrastructure may improve the marginal effect of industrial structure transformation and environmental improvement brought about by trade activity.

Natural resources, trade and fintech in the era of digitalization: A study of economies involved in Belt and Road Initiative

The present study aims to elucidate the impact of digitalization, fintech, trade, and industrial growth on natural resource consumption in emerging economies within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Employing the Cross-sectional Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) method to mitigate Cross-sectional Dependence (CD) and heterogeneity in slope parameters across panels, this study investigates the previously mentioned relationship. Meticulously selecting panel data from twenty-four emerging countries spanning from 1995 to 2021 in the BRI region, the study offers a robust analysis. The findings of this study reveal the positive impact of digitalization on natural resources, as the proliferation of digital devices, data centers, and internet connectivity contributes to higher energy demands, surging the use of natural resources like fossil fuels and electricity. However, the negative impact of fintech on natural resource consumption shows the adoption of energy-efficient technologies, implementation of e-waste management policies, and advocacy for renewable energy addition in energy system. The result shows trade can reduce pressure on natural resources and endorses that BRI can improve trade activities in the member countries, however, actions such as emphasizing green technology adoption, allocating funds for conservation, promoting sustainable resource management, and investing in resource-efficient production, may contribute positively to preserving natural resources in the member nations. Thus comprehensive approach encompassing trade, industrial growth, and the promotion of financial technologies, collectively could strengthen sustainable resource management efforts in the BRI economies.

Deep mitigation for trade-embodied carbon emissions among the Belt and Road Initiative countries

The frequent trade within and beyond the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has prospered the economy but has also expanded carbon emissions. Here, through a multi-regional environmental input-output analysis framework, we explore the patterns and inter-sectoral linkage of trade-embodied carbonemissions among BRI countries during 2015-2019. Then, a dynamic data envelopment analysismodel considering carbon inequality as a non-discretionary input is constructed to assess the carbon emission efficiency of the identified key sector. We find that trade-embodied carbon emissions in the BRI steadily increased during 2015-2019. The manufacturing sector was identified as the key sector, exhibiting an overall efficiency of 0.6268 on average, with significant efficiency disparities. Moreover, we validate the positive role of efficiency enhancement in carbon emission mitigation, as well as the negative moderating effect of carbon inequality. Overall, this study provides optimal collaboration and initiatives to mitigate trade-embodied carbon emissions among BRI countries deeply.

Tourism cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative from economic and spatial insights.

This study examines the potential benefits of cooperation among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries in achieving common goals within the international tourism cooperation network. Despite its significance, limited research has been conducted on this topic in terms of economic and spatial insights. To address this gap, we utilized the gravity model, social network, and quadratic regression. The revealed findings suggest that while the intermediary function among BRI countries is declining, the tourism cooperation network is gradually strengthening. Furthermore, reducing the gap between the governance and consumption levels of BRI countries can improve the network. The study offers new insights into the BRI tourism cooperation network, which could be critical for the future growth of regional tourism.

Evaluating the impact and heterogeneity of China's OFDI on total-factor carbon emission performance in Belt and Road Initiative countries

Studying how China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) affect total-factor carbon emission performance (TFCEP) of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries is essential. It helps evaluate the effectiveness of China's BRI and improves China's future investment decisions. This study evaluates the TFCEP of 65 BRI countries between 2005 and 2020, and explores how China's OFDI influences TFCEP in BRI countries by a spatial difference-in-differences model. The results reveal a notable improvement in TFCEP among BRI countries following BRI implementation, with technological advancement having a crucial influence on this enhancement. China's OFDI are shown to have raised income levels and optimised industrial structures in BRI countries but have not substantially increased renewable energy generation. The primary contributions of China's OFDI to TFCEP improvements in BRI countries are through industrial structure optimization and technology advancement effects. The impact of China's OFDI on TFCEP varies geographically, being most significant in Southeast Asian countries, followed by Central Asia, Western Asia, Europe, and Africa. However, its effect is minimal in countries like Syria, Tunisia, and Algeria. The study suggests that the Chinese government should devise investment strategies tailored to the unique needs of BRI countries, emphasizing green development.

The effect of technological innovation, trademark application, economic growth, and CO2 emissions on renewable energy consumption in Asian Belt and Road initiative countries

The effect of technological innovation, trademark application, economic growth, and CO2 emissions on renewable energy consumption in Asian Belt and Road initiative countries