Riverine Nutrient Loads Research Articles

Seagrass recovery trajectories and recovery potential in relation to nutrient reduction

Abstract Seagrass recovery has been reported across the globe where previously eutrophied waters have become less nutrient‐rich. In the European Wadden Sea, different recovery trajectories were found after riverine nutrient loads decreased, namely full, temporary and no recovery. We compiled intertidal seagrass presence (Zostera noltei and Z. marina) and eutrophication data for 1930–2020, to relate the seagrass trajectories and regional eutrophication differences to riverine nutrient loads, and inferred prospects for seagrass recovery. Seagrass fully recovered in the less eutrophic North Frisian region. The recovery trajectory was tightly coupled to riverine nutrient load reduction. Relative seagrass area (meadow area/region area) dropped from 10% prior to eutrophication to 2% during the eutrophication peak, increased to 7% during the nutrient reduction period and subsequently expanded to 13%. Colonization of marginal habitats was observed, indicating propagule spillover from neighbouring meadows. The more eutrophic southern regions showed no or only temporary seagrass recovery. Prospects for (limited) recovery are good in only two out of four southern regions, provided that riverine nutrient loads are further reduced by ~40% (reference: 2010–2017). Without this reduction, seagrasses may only temporarily recover and will remain vulnerable to erratic disturbances like macroalgae accumulation or storms. Historical evidence and application of habitat suitability models suggest that the potential relative seagrass area in the southern regions is low: less than 0.2% in the western Dutch region and maximum 2.4% in the Ems‐Jade region. Synthesis and applications. Within a large seascape (15,000 km2) the least eutrophicated region showed seagrass recovery upon nutrient reduction. We translated the critical riverine nutrient loads for this recovery, via regional eutrophication indicators, to loads that may enable a sustained recovery in the other regions. This technique is applicable in other complex systems, provided sufficient historical data are available. Propagule spillover exerts a positive feedback at metapopulation scale leading to acceleration of recovery. Occupied and potential seagrass habitat (e.g. assessed by the maximum recorded area in the past) are thus important landscape selection criteria for restoration, particularly when eutrophication is not yet sufficiently reduced.

Enhanced CO2 uptake of the coastal ocean is dominated by biological carbon fixation

Observational reconstructions indicate a contemporary increase in coastal ocean CO2 uptake. However, the mechanisms and their relative importance in driving this globally intensifying absorption remain unclear. Here we integrate coastal carbon dynamics in a global model via regional grid refinement and enhanced process representation. We find that the increasing coastal CO2 sink is primarily driven by biological responses to climate-induced changes in circulation (36%) and increasing riverine nutrient loads (23%), together exceeding the ocean CO2 solubility pump (41%). The riverine impact is mediated by enhanced export of organic carbon across the shelf break, thereby adding to the carbon enrichment of the open ocean. The contribution of biological carbon fixation increases as the seawater capacity to hold CO2 decreases under continuous climate change and ocean acidification. Our seamless coastal ocean integration advances carbon cycle model realism, which is relevant for addressing impacts of climate change mitigation efforts.

Multi‐Decadal Coastal Acidification in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Driven by Climate Change and Eutrophication

AbstractCoastal waters often experience enhanced ocean acidification due to the combined effects of climate change and regional biological and anthropogenic activities. Through reconstructing summertime bottom pH in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 1986 to 2019, we demonstrated that eutrophication‐fueled respiration dominated bottom pH changes on intra‐seasonal and interannual timescales, resulting in recurring acidification coinciding with hypoxia. However, the multi‐decadal acidification trend was principally driven by rising atmospheric CO2 and ocean warming, with more acidified and less buffered hypoxic waters exhibiting a higher rate of pH decline (−0.0023 yr−1) compared to non‐hypoxic waters (−0.014 yr−1). The cumulative effect of climate‐driven decrease in pH baseline is projected to become more significant over time, while the potential eutrophication‐induced seasonal exacerbation of acidification may lessen with decreasing oxygen availability resulting from ocean warming. Mitigating coastal acidification requires both global reduction in CO2 emissions and regional management of riverine nutrient loads.

Direct and Indirect Effects of Land Use on Dissolved Organic Matter in a Typical Karst River

Land use can directly affect the abundance of riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) by transporting terrestrial organic matter to rivers and can also indirectly enhance local production of DOM by increasing riverine nutrient loading. This study investigated the characteristics and spatial distribution of DOM components in the Furong River during the rainy season (July) using ultraviolet-visible light absorption spectroscopy (UV-VIS) and three-dimensional excitation emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy-parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC) techniques. Furthermore, correlation analysis and the partial least squares path model (PLS-PM) were used to identify and quantify the direct and indirect impacts of land use on DOM at multiple scales. The results revealed that:① the direct effects of land use on DOM were generally stronger than the indirect effects. ② The responses of different DOM components to riverine nutrient status and land use varied, with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) components being more susceptible to riverine nutrient status and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) being more sensitive to land use. ③ The direct impact intensity of land use on DOC and CDOM fluctuated slightly with the spatial scale, but the total impact intensity had no visible spatial scale difference, and the direct impact intensity on the FDOM component decreased with the increase in spatial scale. ④ Dryland, urban and other construction land, patch density (PD), edge density (ED), and Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) were typical land use metrics that exacerbated DOM abundance, whereas paddy field, shrubland, largest patch index (LPI), and aggregation index (AI) were typical land use metrics that effectively mitigated DOM abundance. Total nitrogen (TN), nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), and dissolved total phosphorus (DTP) were water quality parameters that were significantly affected by land use and were closely related to DOM components, that is, nitrogen and phosphorus played an important "intermediary" role in "land use-riverine DOM." FDOM could be used as indicators to measure the strength of terrestrial organic matter directly input to rivers by land use.

Addressing data challenges in riverine nutrient load modeling of an intensively managed agro‐industrial watershed

AbstractData limitations often challenge the reliability of water quality models, especially in intensively managed watersheds. While numerous studies report successful hydrological model setup and calibration, few have addressed in detail the data challenges for multisite and multivariable model calibration to an intensively managed watershed. In this study, we address some of these challenges based on our reflective experience calibrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Upper Sangamon River Watershed in central Illinois based on daily flow, annual crop yield, and monthly sediment, nitrate, and total phosphorus loads. We highlight some challenges in SWAT calibration processes due to data errors and inconsistencies, and insufficient precipitation and water quality observations. Following, we demonstrate the merits of additional weather and water quality observations that could help reduce input uncertainties, and we provide suggestions for selecting appropriate observations for the model calibration. After dealing with the data issues, we show that the SWAT model could be calibrated with acceptable results for the case study watershed.

What drove the nonlinear hypoxia response to nutrient loading in Chesapeake Bay during the 20th century?

Previous data analysis showed that the large expansion of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay between 1950s and 1980s was correlated to the increased riverine nutrient loading, but the physical and biogeochemical processes driving this hypoxia response need to be better understood. Using a validated coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, we conducted a hindcast simulation of dissolved oxygen during the 40-year period (1950–1989) when the nutrient loading doubled. The model reproduced the observed decline in O2 concentration at monitoring stations and the expansion of the hypoxic volume. The peak summer hypoxic volume expanded from ∼5 km3 during 1950–1969 to ∼10 km3 during 1970–1989. To discern how different physical and biochemical processes regulated dissolved O2, we examined O2 budget in a fixed control volume of the bottom water most susceptible to hypoxia. The increased water column respiration was found to be the dominant driver of the hypoxia expansion. Further analysis showed a nonlinear response to the nutrient loading. The accumulative hypoxia volume days per unit of nitrate load showed an abrupt (∼50 %) jump around 1968. The summer mean hypoxic volume increased with the winter-spring nutrient load, but it was 1.3 km3 (about 30 %) higher in 1968–1989 than in 1950–1967 at the same nutrient load. This upward shift in hypoxia was caused by the upward shift in the relationship between the water column respiration and winter-spring nutrient load. Hypoxia suppressed nitrification and denitrification processes in the sediment, amplifying nutrient recycling by 15 % and water column respiration by 12 %. Our modeling analysis demonstrated a feedback mechanism for driving the nonlinear hypoxia response to nutrient loading.

Assessment of Nutrient Loads into the Ryck River and Options for Their Reduction

A massive shift in agricultural practices over the past decades, to support exceptionally high yields and productivities involving intensive agriculture, have led to unsustainable agriculture practices across the globe. Sustenance of such high yields and productivities demand high use of organic and industrial fertilizers. This acts as a negative pressure on the environment. Excessive use of fertilizers leads to nutrient surplus in the fields, which, as a part of catchment runoff, flows into the water bodies as diffuse pollution. These nutrients through rivers are eventually passed into seas. High nutrients ending up into water bodies cause eutrophication. The situation is worsened when such unsustainable agricultural activities are carried out on drained peatlands. As a result, the nutrients that were not part of the nutrient cycle in the landscape for years begin to leach out due to mineralization of peatlands, thereby putting an additional load of nutrients on the environment, that was already under the negative impact of nutrient surplus. In view of the above, a small lowland catchment of the Ryck river in northeast Germany was assessed for its nitrogen losses from agricultural lands through empirical modelling. Initial empirical modelling resulted in an average annual total nitrogen loss of 14.7 kg ha−1 year−1. After a comparative analysis of these results with procured data, the empirical equation was modified to suit the catchment, yielding more accurate results. The study showed that 75.6% of peatlands in the catchment are under agricultural use. Subsequently, a proposal was made for potential wetland buffer zones in the Ryck catchment. Altogether, 13 peatland sites across 8 sub-catchments were recommended for mitigation of high nutrient runoff. In the end, nutrient efficiency of proposed WBZs in one of the sub-catchments of Ryck has been discussed. The results show that (i) the modified empirical equation can act as a key tool in application-based future strategies for nitrogen reduction in the Ryck catchment, (ii) restoration of peatlands and introduction of WBZs can help in mitigating the nutrient runoff for improved water quality of Ryck, and subsequently (ii) contribute to efficient reduction of riverine loads of nutrients into the Baltic Sea.

Suspended particulate matter drives the spatial segregation of nitrogen turnover along the hyper-turbid Ems estuary

Abstract. Estuaries are nutrient filters and change riverine nutrient loads before they reach coastal oceans. Their morphology have been extensively changed by anthropogenic activities like draining, deepening and dredging to meet economic and social demand, causing significant regime changes like tidal amplifications and in some cases to hyper-turbid conditions. Furthermore, increased nutrient loads, especially nitrogen, mainly by agriculture cause coastal eutrophication. Estuaries can either act as a sink or as a source of nitrate, depending on environmental and geomorphological conditions. These factors vary along an estuary, and change nitrogen turnover in the system. Here, we investigate the factors controlling nitrogen turnover in the hyper-turbid Ems estuary (Northern Germany), which has been strongly impacted by human activities. During two research cruises in August 2014 and June 2020, we measured water column properties, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dual stable isotopes of nitrate and dissolved nitrous oxide concentration along the estuary. We found that three distinct biogeochemical zones exist along the estuary. A strong fractionation (∼26 ‰) of nitrate stable isotopes points towards nitrate removal via water column denitrification in the hyper-turbid tidal river, driven by anoxic conditions in deeper water layers. In the middle reaches of the estuary nitrification gains importance, turning this section into a net nitrate source. The outer reaches are dominated by mixing, with nitrate uptake in 2020. We find that the overarching control on biogeochemical nitrogen cycling, zonation and nitrous oxide production in the Ems estuary is exerted by suspended particulate matter concentrations and the linked oxygen deficits.

Quantification of land–sea nutrient fluxes supplied by allis shad across the species’ range

Diadromous species act as nutrient vectors between their marine and freshwater habitats. Few valuations of this regulating service exist and none at the scale of species distribution ranges. This large-scale approach seems particularly relevant for species moving and exchanging individuals across borders and territories as these populations may strongly depend upon each other in terms of population viability and provision of ecosystem services. The development of a new nutrient routine within an existing mechanistic species distribution model provided estimates of the “maximum potential” of the anadromous allis shad (Alosa alosa) to provide nitrogen and phosphorous subsidies throughout western Europe. During their seasonal reproductive migration, shad provided low amounts of nutrient subsidies when compared to North American anadromous species and annual riverine nutrient loads. However, these subsidies are delivered as pulses concentrated in space and time, suggesting that more work is needed to figure out the significance of these shad-derived nutrients in terms of riverine ecosystem functioning. The evidence of a substantial flow of strayers delivering nutrient subsidies in several rivers confirmed the need for large-scale management of migratory species to ensure a sustainable provision of ecosystem services.

From local measures to regional impacts: Modelling changes in nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

Study RegionOur study region is the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB), which covers an area of 1.8 Mio km2 distributed over 14 countries in northern Europe. Study FocusWe use a large-scale hydrological and nutrient transport model (E-HYPE) to model basin-wide impacts of measure scenarios on the Baltic Sea, where eutrophication is a critical issue for the marine ecosystem. We constructed measure scenarios based on stakeholder acceptance, established in workshops in different regions around the Baltic. These measures include local stream reach to catchment scale measures aiming to reduce nutrient transport into the stream network (buffer strips, stormwater ponds) and measures aiming to reduce regional nutrient source releases (fertiliser leaching rates, rural household emissions). New Hydrological Insights for the RegionNutrient load reductions are often needed to reduce eutrophication and improve overall surface water quality in fresh-water and enclosed bays and seas, where dilution is limited and load emissions have long residence times. To reduce riverine nutrient loads, remediation measures are necessary, e.g. establishment of buffer strips or improved wastewater treatment. Such measures are, however, typically not designed to target nutrient load reductions at sea outlets, but rather focus on local improvements. Here, we show that measures, notwithstanding other meliorating ecosystem benefits, must include reductions in load emissions across large basin areas to impact integrated net loads into coastal sea basins, because reduction measures that only target nutrient delivery to the stream network typically cannot be implemented in a significant enough proportion of the total drainage area of large coastal river basins. Our impact scenarios show BSDB-wide nutrient reductions of up to 9 % for nitrogen and phosphorus compared to a reference scenario, if load emissions are reduced in the scenario assumptions.

Integrated ecosystem impacts of climate change and eutrophication on main Baltic fishery resources

The Baltic Sea is a heavily impacted ecosystem with multiple pressures acting simultaneously. In order to quantify ecosystem impacts of integrated climate change and eutrophication pressures under constant high fishing pressure, and to support decision-making and policies in generating environmental and economic sustainable systems, the Baltic Atlantis holistic and mechanistic ecosystem model was applied. The overall aim was to run scenarios of separate and integrated impacts of climate and riverine nutrient load changes, taking into account the interactions of the full food web in the entire Baltic Sea. This was done to identify which of those two pressures will likely dominate the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem, and to test effects of different riverine nutrient forcing sources as well as the Baltic Atlantis functions in relation to hydrographic spawning thresholds. By integrating the hydrography, the biology covering all trophic levels of the food web, and multiple pressures, i.e. eutrophication, climate change and fishery, we were able to evaluate relative impacts of 3 climate scenarios and 3 nutrient load scenarios, using two sources of nutrient forcing and predict likely trends in ecosystem effects. With focus on major fish stocks, our model, with its assumptions, indicated that nutrient loads are the main driver of the changes in the ecosystem as long as the hydrographic thresholds for spawning are not reached. If the thresholds are reached for the Baltic cod, climate change impact will become most important. Furthermore, higher nutrient loads resulted in cod decrease, and increase in sprat and herring. This effect is amplified by stronger climate change. Overall, it is of crucial importance for the future of the Baltic Sea fisheries and stocks that potential impacts are considered both separate and integrated in a dynamic ecosystem-based management approach.

Alterations to sediment nutrient deposition and transport along a six reservoir sequence

Reservoir presence and construction has become commonplace along rivers due to the multitude of ecosystem services they provide. Many services are well recognized, including the effectiveness of sequestering both sediments and sediment-bound nutrients such as silts and phosphorus (P). Reservoirs are also capable of transforming or sequestering significant quantities of nutrients with more complex biogeochemical pathways, like nitrogen (N). Reservoir assessments, independent of inflow-outflow models, have primarily focused on a small number of systems creating a growing need to understand how reservoirs function both individually and as reservoir sequences within large rivers and their watersheds. Models have simulated the overall efficiency and drivers of reservoir nutrient deposition, but few have considered how a sequence of reservoirs alters deposition as an interdependent watershed-sediment-transport-system. In this study, we collected sediment cores from a six-reservoir sequence along a 5th – 6th order stream receiving treated waters from a large metropolitan area in the subtropical southeastern United States. Paleolimnological studies of subtropical reservoirs are underrepresented and are needed to understand the history of reservoir development. Using paleolimnological techniques and a known 30 year flux of riverine nutrient loading from waste water treatment facilities, we compared nutrient deposition to reservoir morphological qualities and primary producer community structure during the past ~50 years. Our findings suggest phosphorus deposition is associated with reservoir order downstream of the primary nutrient source, nitrogen deposition is linked to reservoir water retention time, and N:P is most strongly linked to reservoir surface area and watershed population density. Our results were strongly influenced by a large upstream and metropolitan nutrient source, common in large rivers, but under different conditions of nutrient loading (i.e. nonpoint source), reservoirs may express other nutrient depositional patterns.

Teleconnection between climate oscillations and riverine nutrient dynamics in Southeast China based on wavelet analysis.

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is mainly driven by hydrological processes; climate oscillation can affect regional water cycle processes. However, the relationship between climate oscillation and NPS pollution is still unclear, which increases the difficulty of water quality prediction and management. In this study, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet transform were adopted to investigate the teleconnection between ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon and riverine NPS load dynamics in an agricultural watershed of Southeast China from 2003 to 2016. Results showed that annual precipitation, streamflow, and riverine nutrient load increased significantly during the study period. The change point for long-term riverine TN load and TP load appeared in 2009 and 2007, respectively. Rainfall, streamflow, nutrient loads, and Niño 3.4 sea temperature (SST) shared a common periodicity of 10-16 months. The southern oscillation index (SOI) and Niño 3.4 SST shared a common periodicity of 28-36 months. Moreover, Niño 3.4 SST showed a positive correlation with riverine nutrient loads at a periodicity of 10-16 months, while SOI showed a weakly negative correlation with riverine nutrient loads at a periodicity of 28-36 months. These findings indicate that the increasing frequency of warm ENSO events would enhance the risk of nutrient export to rivers in Southeast China and more attention should be paid to large-scale climate oscillation in the prediction of agricultural nutrient pollution and management of water quality in agricultural watersheds.

Combined use of satellite image analysis, land-use statistics, and land-use-specific export coefficients to predict nutrients in drained peatland catchment.

Maintaining and improving surface water quality requires knowledge of nutrient and sediment loads due to past and future land-use practices, but historical data on land cover and its changes are often lacking. In this study, we tested whether land-use-specific export coefficients can be used together with satellite images (Landsat) and/or regional land-use statistics to estimate riverine nutrient loads and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS). The study area, Simojoki (3160km2) in northern Finland, has been intensively drained for peatland forestry since the 1960s. We used different approaches at multiple sub-catchment scales to simulate TN, TP, and SS export in the Simojoki catchment. The uncertainty in estimates based on specific export coefficients was quantified based on historical land-use changes (derived from Landsat data), and an uncertainty boundary was established for each land-use. The uncertainty boundary captured at least 60% of measured values of TN, TP, and SS loads or concentrations. However, the uncertainty in estimates compared with measured values ranged from 7% to 20% for TN, 0% to 18% for TP, and 13% to 43% for SS for different catchments. Some discrepancy between predicted and measured loads and concentrations was expected, as the method did not account for inter-annual variability in hydrological conditions or river processes. However, combining historical land-use change estimates with simple export coefficients can be a practical approach for evaluating the influence on water quality of historical land-use changes such as peatland drainage for forest establishment.

Simulating algal dynamics within a Bayesian framework to evaluate controls on estuary productivity

The Neuse River Estuary (North Carolina, USA) is a valuable ecosystem that has been affected by the expansion of agricultural and urban watershed activities over the last several decades. Eutrophication, as a consequence of enhanced anthropogenic nutrient loadings, has promoted high phytoplankton biomass, hypoxia, and fish kills. This study compares and contrasts three models to better understand how nutrient loading and other environmental factors control phytoplankton biomass, as chl-a, over time. The first model is purely statistical, while the second model mechanistically simulates both chl-a and nitrogen dynamics, and the third additionally simulates phosphorus. The models are calibrated to a multi-decadal dataset (1997–2018) within a Bayesian framework, which systematically incorporates prior information and accounts for uncertainties. All three models explain over one third of log-transformed chl-a variability, with the mechanistic models additionally explaining the majority of the variability in bioavailable nutrients (R2 > 0.5). By disentangling the influences of riverine nutrient concentrations, flows, and loadings on estuary productivity we find that concentration reductions, rather than total loading reductions, are the key to controlling estuary chl-a levels. The third model indicates that the estuary, even in its upstream portion, is rarely phosphorus limited, and will continue to be mostly nitrogen limited even under a 30% phosphorus reduction scenario. This model also predicts that a 10% change in nitrogen loading (flow held constant) will produce an approximate 4.3% change in estuary chl-a concentration, while the statistical model suggests a larger (10%) effect. Overall, by including a more detailed representation of environmental factors controlling algal growth, the mechanistic models generate chl-a forecasts with less uncertainty across a range of nutrient loading scenarios. Methodologically, this study advances the use of Bayesian methods for modeling the eutrophication dynamics of an estuarine system over a multi-decadal period.

Temporal Trends in Phosphorus Concentrations and Losses from Agricultural Monitoring Sites in Latvia

Abstract The Baltic Sea is the youngest sea on our planet, the environment of the sea is considered to be unique and fragile. It is affected by various human activities resulting in the impairment of water quality. Riverine nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study examines temporal trends in water discharge, total phosphorus (TP) and orthophosphate-phosphorus (PO4-P) concentrations and losses from three agricultural runoff monitoring sites in Latvia including Berze, Mellupite, and Vienziemite. The annual datasets of TP and PO4-P concentrations and losses were tested for statistical trends using a nonparametric test - the Mann-Kendall trend test. The timeframe of this study was from 1995 until 2018. The results show a large variety of annual mean concentrations and losses of TP and PO4-P in the study period. No statistically significant trend was detected for TP losses. Meanwhile, statistically significant downward trends were observed for TP concentrations in four out of six study sites and in two study sites for PO4-P concentrations.

Riverine and Oceanic Nutrients Govern Different Algal Bloom Domain Near the Changjiang Estuary in Summer

AbstractThe Changjiang Estuary and adjacent sea area in the East China Sea suffer from frequent harmful algal blooms. However, the relative importance of riverine nutrient input from the Changjiang River and oceanic nutrient input from the Taiwan Warm Current and Kuroshio Current to the development and distribution of summer phytoplankton blooms in this area remains unclear. To address this problem, we deployed a coupled physical‐biological model. The coupled model successfully reproduces the main hydrographic and biogeochemical features in this domain. Both satellite observations and model results show two regions of elevated chlorophyll concentrated in this site. Simulated results show that harmful algal blooms in the region north of the Zhoushan Islands are mainly driven by riverine nutrients from the Changjiang River, while algal blooms in the region south of the Zhoushan Islands are mainly controlled by nutrients from the open ocean. Nutrient input, particularly phosphate, from the Kuroshio subsurface water contributes most to the accumulation of dinoflagellate biomass and chlorophyll in the southern region, while the Taiwan Warm Current has less influence. This has implications for nutrient control and land management practices: Although reducing riverine nutrient loads may significantly reduce phytoplankton growth north of the Zhoushan Islands, it will have little effect in the area to the south.

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.

Relative impacts of global changes and regional watershed changes on the inorganic carbon balance of the Chesapeake Bay

Abstract. The Chesapeake Bay is a large coastal-plain estuary that has experienced considerable anthropogenic change over the past century. At the regional scale, land-use change has doubled the nutrient input from rivers and led to an increase in riverine carbon and alkalinity. The bay has also experienced global changes, including the rise of atmospheric temperature and CO2. Here we seek to understand the relative impact of these changes on the inorganic carbon balance of the bay between the early 1900s and the early 2000s. We use a linked land–estuarine–ocean modeling system that includes both inorganic and organic carbon and nitrogen cycling. Sensitivity experiments are performed to isolate the effect of changes in (1) atmospheric CO2, (2) temperature, (3) riverine nitrogen loading and (4) riverine carbon and alkalinity loading. Specifically, we find that over the past century global changes have increased ingassing by roughly the same amount (∼30 Gg-C yr−1) as has the increased riverine loadings. While the former is due primarily to increases in atmospheric CO2, the latter results from increased net ecosystem production that enhances ingassing. Interestingly, these increases in ingassing are partially mitigated by increased temperatures and increased riverine carbon and alkalinity inputs, both of which enhance outgassing. Overall, the bay has evolved over the century to take up more atmospheric CO2 and produce more organic carbon. These results suggest that over the past century, changes in riverine nutrient loads have played an important role in altering coastal carbon budgets, but that ongoing global changes have also substantially affected coastal carbonate chemistry.

The hydrologic model as a source of nutrient loading uncertainty in a future climate

Hydrologic models are applied increasingly with climate projections to provide insights into future hydrologic conditions. However, both hydrologic models and climate models can produce a wide range of predictions based on model inputs, assumptions, and structure. To characterize a range of future predictions, it is common to use multiple climate models to drive hydrologic models, yet it is less common to also use a suite of hydrologic models. It is also common for hydrologic models to report riverine discharge and assume that nutrient loading will follow similar patterns, but this may not be the case. In this study, we characterized uncertainty from both climate models and hydrologic models in predicting riverine discharge and nutrient loading. Six climate models drawn from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble were used to drive five independently developed and calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to assess hydrology and nutrient loadings for mid-century (2046–2065) in the Maumee River Watershed,the largest watershedsdraining to the Laurentian Great Lakes. Under those conditions, there was no clear agreement on the direction of change in future nutrient loadings or discharge. Analysis of variance demonstrated that variation among climate models was the dominant source of uncertainty in predicting future total discharge, tile discharge (i.e. subsurface drainage), evapotranspiration, and total nitrogen loading, while hydrologic models were the main source of uncertainty in predicted surface runoff and phosphorus loadings. This innovative study quantifies the importance of hydrologic model in the prediction of riverine nutrient loadings under a future climate.