River Basin Research Articles

Drivers of Widespread Floods in Indian River Basins

Abstract Widespread floods affecting multiple subbasins in a river basin have implications for infrastructure, agriculture, environment, and groundwater recharge. However, the crucial linkage between widespread floods and their drivers remains unexplored for Indian subcontinental river basins. Here, we examine the occurrence and drivers of widespread flooding in seven Indian subcontinental river basins during the observed climate (1959–2020). The peninsular river basins have a high probability of widespread flooding, compared to the transboundary basins of the Ganga and Brahmaputra. Favorable antecedent baseflow and soil moisture conditions, uniform precipitation distribution, and precipitation seasonality determine the probability of widespread floods in Indian river basins. The widespread floods are associated with large atmospheric circulations that cause precipitation in a large part of a river basin. Our findings highlight the prominent drivers and mechanisms of widespread floods with implications for flood mitigation in India.

Chemical weathering in the Mekong River Basin: Clay mineralogy and element geochemistry of lower-reach river sediments

Chemical weathering of parent rocks in river basins plays a significant role in controlling the global geochemical cycle and climate change, especially in the world’s largest river basins such as the Mekong River Basin in tropical regions. However, the chemical weathering process of the Mekong River Basin is still not well understood. In this study, clay mineralogy and major/trace-element geochemistry of fluvial sediments (clay, silt, and sand fractions) collected from the lower Mekong River Basin (Cambodia and Vietnam) were utilized to investigate the sediment provenance and chemical weathering process. The major-element compositions of the clay, silt, and sand fraction sediments from both the mainstream and tributaries consist of dominant SiO2, Al2O3, and Fe2O3, (84 wt.%, 89 wt.%, and 95 wt.%, respectively) and minor K2O, Na2O, MgO, CaO, TiO2, P2O5, and MnO. The clay mineral assemblages in mainstream sediments are high in illite (36 wt.%), moderate in kaolinite (28 wt.%) and chlorite (26 wt.%), and low in smectite (10 wt.%), whereas those in tributary sediments are high in smectite (37 wt.%), moderate in kaolinite (26 wt.%) and chlorite (22 wt.%), and low in illite (15 wt.%). The different clay mineral assemblages between mainstream and tributary sediments can be significantly related to the parent rock lithology and/or the weathering process in the source region. On the basis of clay mineralogy and elemental geochemistry, river sediments of the mainstream in the lower reach may be derived mainly from felsic rocks in the lower part of the middle reach of this basin, with secondary contributions from the upper and lower reaches as well as the upper part of the middle reach. Sediments in the Kampi and Speu tributaries highly originate from felsic rocks, whereas sediments in the Srepok, Ter, and Chhiong tributaries can be mostly weathering products of mafic rocks. The clay mineral proxies (smectite/(illite + chlorite) and kaolinite/(illite + chlorite)) combined with the elemental geochemistry (CIA, αAlE values, and weathering trends) of the clay fraction sediments indicate intensive chemical weathering in the lower and middle reaches. The high-relief topography and cold and dry climatic conditions in the upper reach result in high illite and chlorite contents in the soil and moderate chemical weathering. The chemical weathering intensity increases from the upper to middle reaches and further to the lower reach. Tectonics in the middle and upper reaches of the Mekong River Basin play the most important role in controlling weathering and erosion processes, whereas East Asian–Indian monsoon climate conditions with warm temperature and predominant rainfall throughout the year and lithology are the main forcing factors for the intensity of chemical weathering in the lower reach.

Dam Reoperation to Mitigate Changing Climate Extremes in the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Dam Reoperation to Mitigate Changing Climate Extremes in the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Unveiling mid-century conservation priorities: Co-occurrence of biodiversity, climate change exposure, and carbon storage in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China

The global challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change necessitate the implementation of integrated conservation strategies. A forward-looking framework is necessary to reconcile climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts with biodiversity goals, supporting effective long-term planning and management of protected areas (PAs) network. This study develops a comprehensive approach to identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation until 2050, integrating assessments of species distributions, climate change exposure and carbon storage under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways. The Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) in China serves as a case study. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) method, we predicted the distributions of 435 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species and plants. We then mapped their richness in the MLYRB. Distance-based climate velocity analysis was performed to identify climate change coldspots and hotspots. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and InVEST model were coupled to simulate carbon storage changes. Systematic conservation planning tool, Zonation, was used to prioritize species conservation hotspots. By examining the co-occurrence of these hotspots with climate change coldspots/hotspots and areas of high carbon storage, conservation priorities for the MLYRB were revealed. Our findings indicate that 18.27–24.94% of the MLYRB risks over 20% species richness declines by 2050 under various scenarios, while increases over 10% are projected for only 0.81–1.75% of the area. Co-occurrence analysis highlights significant associations, such as a 32.26% overlap between species conservation hotspots and climate change hotspots in SSP1-2.6. Particularly noteworthy is the substantial co-occurrence (57.93–59.50% across scenarios) between areas maximizing species conservation and carbon storage. The identified conservation priority areas, covering 41.95% of the MLYRB (441554km2), hold potential for long-term species conservation, climate resilience, and nature-based climate solutions by 2050. However, only 6.08% of these priorities currently benefit from protection. These results offer valuable guidance for region-specific landscape management and conservation policy aligned with international goals. The presented methodology provides a broader application, serving as a valuable resource for prioritizing conservation efforts in other regions integrating biodiversity, climate change adaptation, and mitigation goals.

Deciphering the driving factors and probabilistic health risks of potentially toxic elements in arid surface water: Insights from the Tarim River Basin

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in surface water in arid areas pose a serious threat to environmental safety and human health within a basin. It is important to determine the factors controlling PTEs and to assess the likelihood that they will pose a risk to human health in order to support the development of environmental protection and risk management strategies. In this study, a structural equation model and Bayesian method were combined to discuss the distribution and probabilistic health risks of PTEs in surface water in arid area, and the Tarim River Basin was taken as a case study. The results show that the average concentrations of As, Co, Cu, and Ni in the surface water in the Tarim River Basin ranged from 0.04 to 2.92 μg/L, which do not exceed the international standard values. However, the maximum value of As (19.20 μg/L) exceeded both the recommended drinking water standards and the Chinese irrigation water standards. Spatially, the high As concentrations were distributed in the upper reaches of the Kashgar River, and the high Co, Cu and Ni concentrations were distributed in reservoirs and lakes on the main stream of the Tarim River. The concentrations of the PTEs in the surface water in the basin were not only affected by random anthropogenic factors such as traffic discharge, agricultural activities and mining industry, but were also directly and indirectly influenced by climatic factors. The results of the probabilistic health risk assessment showed that the 95th percentile the total hazard index for infants exceeded the allowable value of 1, and the total carcinogenic risk of PTEs exposure in four age groups was at the notable level. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the controlling factors and health risks associated with PTEs in surface water in the Tarim River Basin, and the findings are expected to provide a scientific basis for regional water environment management and safety control.

Anthropogenic activities mitigate the impacts of climate extremes on high flow regimes on the Loess Plateau

The hydrological cycle is anticipated to become increasing variable due to intensified global climate extremes and frequent floods. Understanding the evolution and driving mechanisms of floods in the context of climatic extremes is essential, particularly on the Loess Plateau (LP) where anthropogenic activities are significant. Here, we examined the spatiotemporal variability of climate extremes and their impacts on flood processes on the LP during 1956–2015. We employed a paired year approach to quantitatively assess the driving role of anthropogenic activities on flood changes in 11 major basins. Our findings indicated a general decline in extreme precipitation indices, while temperature has increased across most of the LP. Both annual runoff (Q) and high flow (Q5) magnitude significantly decreased in all basins. We identified that the major climatic indices driving Q5 included erosive precipitation amount, flood season precipitation, heavy precipitation amount, and maximum 7-day precipitation amount. Importantly, anthropogenic activities have mitigated the impact of climate extremes on Q5 regimes. Compared the post-2000 with reference period (1956–1979), under similar climatic conditions, we observed a reduction in the average Q5 magnitude by 30.19–78.14%, and a decrease in the average Q5 duration by 46.48–100.00% across the basins. The contributions of climate variability and anthropogenic activities to Q5 magnitude changes among 11 basins ranged from –37.58% to 22.02% and –56.84% to –15.08%, respectively, highlighting the crucial role of ecological restoration in reducing Q5 magnitude. These results underscore the importance of ecological restoration in flood regulation and offer valuable insights for basin management in the Yellow River Basin.

Determining the evaporation and evolution of surface water in a large catchment using isotopes and multiple models

The evolution and formation mechanisms of chemical components in surface water can reflect changes in the geological background of a basin and the extent of human interference. The Yangtze River basin is the largest water source area in China, yet its main ion sources and formation mechanisms are not fully understood. This study uses a combination of hydrochemistry, stable isotopes (δ18O, δD), the Craig-Gordon model, and the APCS-MLR model to quantitatively assess the water source replenishment and evaporation intensity of surface water in the Yangtze River. The study reveals the primary ion sources and controlling factors of surface water in the Yangtze River. The results show that the hydrochemical type in the upstream is mainly HCO3−-Ca2+ and Na+-K+, while in the midstream and downstream it is primarily HCO3−-Ca2+ and SO42−-Ca2+. The evolution of hydrochemical types is mainly controlled by rock weathering and human inputs. The surface water sources in the Yangtze River are directly replenished by precipitation, with the evaporation ratio in the upstream (0.66) being higher than in the midstream (0.63) and downstream (0.47). The lc-excess in the upstream (−0.32 ‰) is lower than in the midstream (1.21 ‰) and downstream (−0.27 ‰), indicating more intense evaporation in the upstream. The hydrochemical composition of the Yangtze River surface water mainly comes from geological factors (80.5 %), industrial factors (11.1 %), agricultural factors (6.4 %), and unknown factors (2.0 %). This study enhances the understanding of the chemical composition, water source replenishment, ion sources, and evolution mechanisms of the Yangtze River surface water, providing a basis for maintaining water quality and sustainable development in the Yangtze River basin.

Evaluation of Water Allocation Scenarios in the Seomjin River Watershed Based on CMIP6 Scenarios

This study evaluated the impact of climate change and water allocation scenarios on water security in the Seomjin River Basin using K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation and Planning System). The findings indicated that domestic water and instream flow are vulnerable to climate change, while industrial water supply may fail to meet future demand in certain regions. Moreover, prioritizing instream flow was found to compromise the stability of the domestic water, and equal allocation adversely affected both domestic and industrial water security. Consequently, maintaining the current system appears to be the most effective approach; however, future studies should focus on developing flexible strategies that consider the effects of climate change and regional characteristics in a more detailed manner.

Establishing a plastic waste map using remote sensing data in the coastal area of Thanh Hoa province (Vietnam)

Plastic pollution, particularly in oceans, is a growing environmental threat. Monitoring this pollution is challenging due to the shortage of data and tools. Remote sensing offers a promising solution by using various types of satellite and aerial images to detect and track plastic waste movement. Purpose. The study aims to establish a plastic waste map using remote sensing technology, focusing on the case study of the coastal area of Thanh Hoa province, Vietnam. Methodology. The study involves several steps, including the collection of plastic waste data (samples in the case study and indices from remote sensing images) as well as topographic and base map collection, statistics of plastic samples, grid design, calculation, interpolation, accuracy assessment, and mapping. Field surveys involved taking pictures of plastic debris along designated routes and a grid system was used to classify and calculate waste samples. Satellite images, especially Sentinel-2 MSI optical satellite imagery, are utilized to identify water areas of high plastic concentration. Findings. A map of plastic wastes in coastal areas of Thanh Hoa was created, with indices like NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) and FDI (Floating Debris Index) helping identify potential plastic waste signals. The resulting map reveals high concentrations of plastic waste in sea areas near the major river mouths of the Ma River basin and tourist areas, which aligns with areas of high human activity. Originality. This is the first study of plastic waste in the coastal area using remote sensing data in Thanh Hoa province, Vietnam. Practical value. This study can contribute to the effective management of marine plastic waste in Thanh Hoa while opening up opportunities for applying the method to create marine plastic waste maps throughout Vietnam and foster long-term monitoring and management.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Gross Ecosystem Product and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Ecologically Vulnerable Watershed Areas: A Case Study of Yongding River Basin

Ecosystem service value is crucial for balancing economic growth and ecological preservation in ecologically vulnerable watershed areas. Although Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) has received significant attention, most existing studies have focused on how to measure it. Few studies have explored spatiotemporal variations in GEP and how land-use changes affect these variations regarding ecological restoration at the river basin level. Additionally, while many studies have examined the relationship between ecosystem service value and economic growth, there is little research on how components of GEP influence economic growth. Analyzing the spatiotemporal structure of GEP and its components could offer new insights into optimizing ecological restoration strategies and promoting sustainable development in vulnerable watershed regions. In this study, we used ArcGIS, InVEST, SPSS, and Python to analyze spatiotemporal variations in GEP in the Yongding River Basin within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Economic Region from 1995 to 2020. Moran’s Index and variance decomposition were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal structure. The grey prediction model forecasted GEP trends from 2025 to 2035. The random forest model was used to assess land-use changes’ impacts on GEP. Paired T-tests were used to compare GEP and GDP, and a dynamic panel model was used to examine how ecosystem service value factors influenced economic growth. The results show the following: (1) Regarding values, GEP accounting and variance decomposition results indicated that ecosystem cultural service value (ECV) and ecosystem regulating service value (ERV) each contributed about half of the total GEP. Ecosystem provisioning service value (EPV) showed an upward trend with fluctuations. Regarding the spatial distribution, Moran’s I analysis showed significant positive spatial correlations for EPV and ERV. The grey prediction model results indicated significant growth in GEP from 2025 to 2035 under current ecological restoration policies, especially for ERV and ECV. (2) In terms of the influence of land-use changes, random forest analysis showed that the forest land area was consistently the most influential factor across GEP, EPV, and ERV. Unused land area was identified as the most significant factor for ECV. (3) Before 2010, GEP was larger than GDP, with significant differences between 1995 and 2000. From 2010 onwards, GDP surpassed GEP, but the differences were not statistically significant. Dynamic panel regression further showed that the water conservation value significantly boosted GDP, whereas the water purification value significantly reduced it. This study highlights the importance of integrating GEP into ecological restoration and economic development to ensure the sustainability of ecologically vulnerable watershed areas.

Identification of key areas for Territorial Ecological Restoration: focusing on ecological security and restoration potential

Implementing Territorial Ecological Restoration is a crucial approach to achieving ecological stability and regional sustainable development, and it also serves as an important measure for promoting the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological environments in the Yellow River Basin. However, effective identification of key areas for Territorial Ecological Restoration remains challenging in planning ecological restoration projects. This study focuses on ecological security and restoration potential, taking Linxia Prefecture in the ecologically fragile area of the upper Yellow River as an example. By evaluating six types of ecosystem services in this area, utilizing morphological spatial pattern analysis models and circuit theory, we identified the structural elements of ecological security patterns and assessed the potential for ecological restoration, identifying key areas for regional ecological restoration.The findings indicated that (1) 13 ecological patches were identified in total, predominantly distributed in the southwest and central regions of Linxia Prefecture. 25 ecological corridors were identified, demonstrating a high level of spatial coherence in terms of significance and connectivity, establishing a closely integrated ecological security network primarily in the southwest of Linxia Prefecture. (2) Thirteen ecological pinch points and seventeen ecological barrier points have been identified, concentrated in the central and southwestern regions of Linxia Prefecture. (3) Based on the characteristics and urgency of key areas for Territorial Ecological Restoration, they are classified and graded as “point-line-surface” and “primary-very important-important.” The primary restoration areas of the point type are mainly located in the central part of Linxia Prefecture, while the primary restoration areas of the line and plane types are mainly in the southwestern part of Linxia Prefecture. This paper emphasizing a holistic approach that prioritizes ecosystem integrity and social support to guide targeted restoration strategies across various ecological features, ultimately aiming for sustainable regional development and maximizing restoration benefits in ecologically fragile areas.

The Impact of Drought on Vegetation at Basin Scale: A Case Study of the Wei River Basin, China

Droughts in the Weihe River Basin are occurring more frequently and are becoming more intense. These events negatively affect industrial production, economic development, and ecosystems. Studying how vegetation changes in response to them is of practical significance. We report temporal and spatial trends in vegetation cover, use a copula function to analyze relationships between drought and vegetation cover, and assess the probability of vegetation loss in different drought scenarios. A vegetation index trends upwards from north to south in this basin; from 2001 to 2017, vegetation cover also trends upward in most areas, although it decreases in areas with high vegetation cover. An escalated susceptibility to drought has been observed in the southern and eastern sectors, where proximity to the riverbank correlates with heightened drought sensitivity, particularly in zones of intensified vegetation density. The probability of vegetation loss at the same vegetation loss preset point gradually increases with increased drought severity. These results will facilitate the formulation of countermeasures to prevent and combat the effects of drought on vegetation and land management.

Climate-related risk to maize crops in China from Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda

AbstractThe Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, invaded China late in 2018 and was responsible for substantial crop losses, especially to maize. This work focuses on the suitability of climate across China for Fall Armyworm survival and spread. It uses climate metrics derived with guidance from experts to enable assessment of the risks posed by Fall Armyworm on maize production in different regions of China. The locations and time of year when temperature conditions are within a viable range for Fall Armyworm survival (minimum temperature higher than 9.7$$^\circ$$ ∘ C and maximum temperature lower than 39.2$$^\circ$$ ∘ C) are used to estimate the spatial distribution of winter breeding and overwintering zones, which helps understand the regions and timing of Fall Armyworm migration risk into northern maize production regions. In addition, meridional wind conditions across the Yangtze River basin area are assessed, and a metric of migration potential from the winter breeding and overwintering regions in the south towards northern regions with maize production is established. Results show that temperature during the winter months currently limits Fall Armyworm winter breeding populations to the very southern regions of China (and bordering countries to the south). However, due to the consistent timing and direction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon winds, the Fall Armyworm could easily be directed northwards to the Yangtze River basin during summer months with a peak in July. For this reason, pest management actions against the Fall Armyworm on summer maize should be taken.

Hydrological dichotomy: Streamflow drought in dammed vs. undammed regions of the largest Indian Peninsular basin

Recurring streamflow drought is a significant problem, and it is necessary to comprehend the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of historical droughts in order to manage future water supplies effectively. Drought has significant and often severe effects on semi-arid and arid zones due to the already limited availability of water in these regions. Therefore, this research examines streamflow drought fluctuations in India's second-largest basin, the Godavari. The Godavari Basin experiences diverse climatic conditions ranging from humid in the Western Ghats to semi-arid in central and western regions. Frequent hydrological droughts have plagued the Godavari basin. Still, the impact of human activities and climate change on the streamflow drought characteristics in the Godavari basin has not been thoroughly investigated. Further, assessing the regional control of streamflow drought deficit and intensity in a large river basin like Godavari is crucial. The findings show that streamflow drought is worst in central and eastern Godavari. Additionally, dammed and undammed locations have different streamflow drought characteristics. Droughts have lengthened in dam-affected areas. However, regions without dams have seen more deficit and intensity. Thus, different sustainable water management techniques are needed for the dammed and undammed regions of the Godavari basin.

Resilience Assessment and Influencing Factors Analysis of Water Security System in the Yellow River Basin

The assessment and regulation of water security system resilience (WSSR) are important ways to alleviate water resource crises. On the basis of the three characteristics of resilience, namely, resistance, restoration, and adaptability, an evaluation index system of the WSSR was built for the Yellow River Basin (YRB). A projection pursuit model based on the sparrow search algorithm (SSA-PP model) was constructed to assess the WSSR at the overall and provincial scales from 2009 to 2022. The factors influencing the spatial distribution patterns of WSSR was identified through factor detector and interactive detector techniques. The results revealed that: (1) From 2009 to 2022, the YRB exhibited a rising trend in WSSR, with the western region attaining the peak level, and the eastern region recording the lowest magnitude. (2) the adaptability capacity of most provinces and regions in the YRB tended to decrease to about 1.0, whereas the resistance and restoration capacities tended to increase towards 2.0. (3) Factors relevant to the restoration and adaptability subsystems, such as the development and utilization ratio of water resources and surface water resources (B2 and B3), water resource load index (C1), water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP (C8), and total precipitation (A1), significantly affected the WSSR. The interaction between factors exhibited significant enhancement effects on explanatory. Therefore, targeted countermeasures and recommendations were provided to improve the WSSR in the YRB.

Evaluation and driving factors of ecological environment quality in the Tarim River basin based on remote sensing ecological index

Changes in the ecological environment quality (EEQ) in the main inland Tarim River Basin in China substantially impact the regional development. Indeed, comprehensive ecological environment measures have been implemented in the Tarim River Basin since 2000. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the EEQ and monitor the effectiveness of ecological restoration measures in the Tarim River Basin over the 2000–2020 period using remote sensing data. First, a Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) was constructed based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. Second, the spatial distributions and factors of the RSEI were analyzed by using Moran’s Index and Geodetector. The results indicated that the overall RSEI values for the Tarim River Basin increased from 0.22 in 2000 to 0.25 in 2020. Moreover, the values for areas with poor EEQ decreased from 50.7% to 44.73%, while those with moderate EEQ increased from 11.45% to 16.91%. Therefore, the results demonstrated a slight overall improvement in the EEQ of the study area over the 2000–2020 period. On the other hand, the EEQ in the Tarim River Basin exhibited a significant spatial autocorrelation in the 2000–2020 period, with a relatively stable overall spatial distribution. Areas with high–high aggregation were distributed in the high-elevation mountainous areas in the western, northern, and southern parts of the study area. In contrast, areas with low–low aggregation were observed in the central and eastern low-elevation desert areas. The EEQ in the Tarim River Basin was driven by the interactions of several factors, including the normalized difference vegetation index, land surface moisture, land surface temperature, normalized differential build-up and bare soil index, and elevation. In particular, heat was the main driving factor that severely impacted the EEQ in the study area. Indeed, increase in the heat values could directly enhance meltwater runoff from glaciers in the basin, thereby resulting in short-term improvement in the basin EEQ. Furthermore, rapid urbanization from 2015 to 2020 resulted in a decrease in the average RSEI value of the Tarim River Basin by 0.1 over this period, consequently, the EEQ level decreased slightly. Briefly, the EEQ in the Tarim River Basin showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, further demonstrating the effectiveness of a series of implemented ecological restoration measures in the Tarim River Basin over this period.

A comprehensive study of floodplain analysis utilising HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, and GIS on the Kosasthalaiyar River sub-basin

ABSTRACT The present study focused on the Kosasthalaiyar River basin in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. We analysed the 2015 peak flood and forecasted the feature data in the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario for various years. We used the scientific data management system (SDSM) software to downscale the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) 2.0 general circulation models (GCMs). According to hydrograph analysis, 142.7, 75.31, 461.73, and 248.22 mm runoff can occur in 2030, 2050, 2080, and 2100, respectively. The current study estimates probable peak flows by performing floodplain analysis on the Kosasthalaiyar River sub-basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), the Hydrologic Engineering Centre's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), and geographic information system (GIS) tools. It is possible to observe that the two major peak floods, measuring 581.6 and 110.7 m3/s, respectively, will occur on 28 November 2030 at 10:20 a.m. and 12 December 2050 at 9:20 a.m. Additionally, high floods of 997 and 1,438.4 m3/s can be recorded on 20 December 2080 at 9:50 a.m. and 29 November 2100 at 9:40 a.m., respectively.

Influence of climate change on water quality in Terra Nova River basin, Pernambuco, Brazil

Climate changes tend to intensify water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions, making water management in these areas more challenging, directly influencing hydrological dynamics, causing impacts on ecosystems and society. The Terra Nova River basin is crucial for the water security of the semi-arid region of Pernambuco, especially after the construction of the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF), which saw the construction of six reservoirs to supply water for human consumption, agricultural, and industrial activities. Therefore, this study aims to analyzes the impacts of climate changes on water quality in the Terra Nova River basin in Pernambuco, using long-term data from the Hydrological Response Unit System for Pernambuco (SUPer). The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages) model is employed to predict water quality parameters in climate change scenarios, using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz). The variables include air temperature, precipitation, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Simulated scenarios were compared with CONAMA No. 357/2005 limits, revealing potential decreases in dissolved oxygen and phosphorus concentrations, alongside an increase in nitrogen concentrations. Irregular rainfall rates, high air temperatures, and evapotranspiration, combined with conflicts by water resources, may exacerbate water access issues in the semi-arid region, worsening the water crisis and threatening water security.

Quantitative Analysis of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Changes on the Hydrological Behavior of the Jhelum River Basin: North-West Himalayas, Kashmir

Quantitative Analysis of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Changes on the Hydrological Behavior of the Jhelum River Basin: North-West Himalayas, Kashmir

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)-Informed Deep Learning for Streamflow Forecasting with Remote Sensing and In Situ Precipitation and Discharge Observations

In order to anticipate residual errors and improve accuracy while reducing uncertainties, this work integrates the long short-term memory (LSTM) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to create a deep learning (DL) model that is guided by physics. By forecasting the residual errors of the SWAT model, the SWAT-informed LSTM model (LSTM-SWAT) differs from typical LSTM approaches that predict the streamflow directly. Through numerical tests, the performance of the LSTM-SWAT was evaluated with both LSTM-only and SWAT-only models in the Upper Heihe River Basin. The outcomes showed that the LSTM-SWAT performed better than the other models, showing higher accuracy and a lower mean absolute error (MAE = 3.13 m3/s). Sensitivity experiments further showed how the quality of the training dataset affects the performance of the LSTM-SWAT. The results of this study demonstrate how the LSTM-SWAT may improve streamflow prediction greatly by remote sensing and in situ observations. Additionally, this study emphasizes the need for detailed consideration of specific sources of uncertainty to further improve the predictive capabilities of the hybrid model.