Risky Alternatives Research Articles

Coordination in stag hunt games

Stag hunt games display a tension between a payoff superior option (stag) and a less risky but payoff inferior alternative (hare). We explore that tension by proposing a selection criterion (which we denote as relative salience) where subjects choose to coordinate in one option by comparing the salience of stag’s main aspect (its payoff) to the salience of hare’s main aspect (its risk) by accounting for both payoff-relevant factors and unobservable individual-specific (idiosyncratic) preferences. Using data from 10 experiments, we find that this criterion is a significant determinant of individual choices in stag-hunt games, outperforming other selection methods.

Proposal of a topical alternative for Cutaneous Leishmaniasis

Leishmaniasis is a group of diseases caused by a flagellated protozoan belonging to different species of the genus Leishmania, causing infections of the skin (cutaneous Leishmaniasis), mucous membranes (mucocutaneous Leishmaniasis) and internal organs (visceral Leishmaniasis)1 . This disease is present in 88 countries worldwide, mainly in South and Central America, Africa, Asia and Southern Europe 2. In Honduras, this infection is endemic3, and by 2022, 1,565 new cases of cutaneous Leishmaniasis were reported4 . The treatment of choice for all forms of this disease has been meglumine antimoniate, known commercially as Glucantime® (AMG), which is distributed for intravenous (IV) administration and produces adverse effects such as fever, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain and nephrotoxicity. In some cases, it may be necessary to adjust the dosage of the drug or discontinue treatment if side effects are severe5 . Another therapeutic option for the treatment of cutaneous Leishmaniasis is Amphotericin B deoxycholate (AMB), which, like AMG, is administered by IV but produces immediate adverse effects such as fever, chills, nausea, vomiting, headache, anaphylactic shock, arrhythmias and liver failure6 . Although lipid formulations of AMB have been developed to reduce the toxic effects of the molecule and improve its effectiveness (liposomal, lipid complex, colloidal suspension), these presentations are expensive and make it impossible for patients to purchase this treatment. Likewise, there are less risky alternatives such as intralesional application with AMG and thermotherapy7 . However, despite the efforts to research and develop new treatments, no topical treatment for cutaneous Leishmaniasis has been marketed. Topical treatments offer several advantages, including localized action, reduced systemic side effects, convenience of use and rapid absorption, making them a practical option for treating various medical and dermatological conditions. In this regard, we propose the development of a potential product that can be easily and rapidly prepared in a magistral formulation as a therapeutic alternative to Cutaneous Leishmaniasis.

(Non-)Parametric Recoverability of Preferences and Choice Prediction

Abstract Simple functional forms for utility require restrictive structural assumptions that are often contrary to observed behavior. Even so, they are widely used in applied economic research. I address this issue using a two-part adaptive experimental design to compare the predictions of a popular parametric model of decision making under risk to those of non-parametric bounds on indifference curves. Interpreting the latter as an approximate upper bound, I find the parametric model sacrifices very little in terms of predictive success. This suggests that, despite their restrictiveness, simple functional forms may nevertheless be useful representations of preferences over risky alternatives.

Dividend payout decisions under uncertainty: the ownership influence in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland

PurposeThis paper examines whether ownership type has a moderating influence on dividend payouts during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis with respect to changes in profits. Future uncertainties because of the pandemic will result in a perceived need for liquidity within the company, but retaining cash may be risky for shareholders who could look for less risky alternatives. The dividend payout strategy is thus even more closely related to the overall type concentration and strategy of the owners during the crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe effects are explored and tested on early data from 2019 to 2020 of Finnish companies using ANCOVA while controlling for profitability and sector variables.FindingsA significant effect on dividend payout during the COVID crisis was found when the companies are dominantly held by individual owners validating early suggestions on such an influence. Therefore, this study contributes further to the academic debates on the influence of ownership concentration in times of crises. This study lists certain sectors which experience diminished profits during such a crisis which pinpoints sector separation in future discussions.Research limitations/implicationsThis study explores early data from a specific context in the Nordic countries. However, it does so out of purpose as explained in the paper.Practical implicationsOwnership type and concentration matters when it comes to dividend payout decisions under uncertainty with regard to changes in profit. Investors need to accept these behavioural insights into their decisions.Originality/valueThis study examines the signalling effect of dividends by analysing how actual or anticipated change in profitability due to a crisis is reflected by owners and leads to dividend payout decisions under uncertainty.

Decision-Making Profiles and Their Associations with Cognitive Performance in Mild Cognitive Impairment.

It is crucial for older adults, especially those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), to make profitable decisions routinely. However, the results regarding decision-making (DM) remain inconsistent. The present study assessed DM profiles under uncertainty conditions in individuals with MCI and their associations with multi-domain cognitive performance. Fifty-three patients with MCI and forty-two age-, gender-, and education level-matched healthy controls (HCs) were administered a comprehensive neuropsychological battery test. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Game of Dice Task (GDT) were used to assess DM competence in conditions involving ambiguity and risk, respectively. In addition, Spearman's correlations were used to examine relationships between GDT and multi-domain cognitive performance. The final capital (FC) and frequency of utilization of negative feedback (FUNF) and positive feedback (FUPF) in the GDT were lower in MCI patients than in HCs. In addition, the number of shifts between safe and risky alternatives was significantly different across groups. However, IGT performance was comparable across groups. In the MCI patients, risky DM performance was associated with language, whereas in HCs was correlated with memory and executive functions. Besides, in MCI, performance on IGT was significantly correlated with social cognition. Individuals with mild cognitive impairment have difficulty utilizing feedback to make optimal decisions under risky situations. The association between decision-making performance and cognitive function is divergent regarding situational uncertainty and individuals' cognitive status. In mild cognitive impairment and normal aging, decision-making under ambiguity needs further investigation.

Large-N Rat Data Enables Phenotyping of Risky Decision-Making: A Retrospective Analysis of Brain Injury on the Rodent Gambling Task.

Decision-making is substantially altered after brain injuries. Patients and rats with brain injury are more likely to make suboptimal, and sometimes risky choices. Such changes in decision-making may arise from alterations in how sensitive individuals are to outcomes. To assess this, we compiled and harmonized a large dataset from four studies of TBI, each of which evaluated behavior on the Rodent Gambling Task (RGT). We then determined whether the following were altered: (1) sensitivity to overall contingencies, (2) sensitivity to immediate outcomes, or (3) general choice phenotypes. Overall sensitivity was evaluated using the matching law, immediate sensitivity by looking at the probability of switching choices given a win or loss, and choice phenotypes by k-means clustering. We found significant reductions in sensitivity to the overall outcomes and a bias toward riskier alternatives in TBI rats. However, the substantial individual variability led to poor overall fits in matching analyses. We also found that TBI caused a significant reduction in the tendency to repeatedly choose a given option, but no difference in win- or loss-specific sensitivity. Finally, clustering revealed 5 distinct decision-making phenotypes and TBI reduced membership in the “optimal” type. The current findings support a hypothesis that TBI reduces sensitivity to contingencies. However, in the case of tasks such as the RGT, this is not a simple shift to indiscriminate or less discriminate responding. Rather, TBI rats are more likely to develop suboptimal preferences and frequently switch choices. Treatments will have to consider how this behavior might be corrected.

Decision making under risk: framing effects in pigeon risk preferences.

When humans face probabilistic outcomes, their choices often depend on whether the choice is framed in terms of losses or gains. In the present research, we gave pigeons a choice between risky (variable) outcomes and safe (constant) outcomes that resulted in the same net reward. In Experiment 1, in which the outcomes represented a loss, the pigeons preferred the risky alternative. In Experiment 2, in which the outcomes represented a gain, the pigeons were indifferent between the two alternatives. In Experiment 3, in which the outcomes represented neither a gain nor a loss, the pigeons strongly preferred the risky alternative. The results were interpreted in terms of the relative value of gains and losses given to the alternatives by pigeons in the context of a risky and safe choice. In Experiment 4 we tested that hypothesis by giving pigeons a choice between a risky and safe alternative with the same net outcome, in the context of a gain associated with the safe alternative, but no gain or loss associated with the risky alternative. In support of the interpretation of the first three experiments, with the safe alternative associated with a gain, the pigeons now preferred the safe alternative. These results were discussed in terms of economic and foraging theories and were contrasted with the aversion to uncertainty (risk) more typically shown by humans.

Pavlovian processes may produce contrast leading to bias and suboptimal choice.

Pavlovian processes are likely responsible for the varied contexts in which contrast occurs between what is expected and what is obtained. Such contrast effects result in paradoxical biases and even suboptimal choice by animals. For example, pigeons prefer a suboptimal alternative that results in a stimulus signaling a low probability (20%) high reward (ten pellets) over an optimal alternative that results in a stimulus signaling a high probability (100%) of a smaller reward (three pellets). This effect is analogous to human unskilled gambling. In another case, pigeons prefer a stimulus that has required many pecks to obtain over one the has required one peck to obtain (a so-called justification of effort effect). In a third line of research that investigated the preference for risky choice over safe choice, pigeons chose between two alternatives, a safe choice that resulted in two pellets of food, or a risky choice that resulted in either one or three pellets of food. In general, the pigeons preferred the risky alternative, but importantly, their choice was influenced by whether the choice reflected a gain or a loss - the difference between what was shown to them (one, two, or three pellets) and what they received. Each of these lines of research suggest the importance of contrast effects produced by Pavlovian processes that result in biases or suboptimal behavior.

Comparison of Perinatal Outcomes for All Modes of Second Stage Delivery in Obstetric Theaters: A Retrospective Observational Study

(BJOG. 2021;128:1248–1255) The World Health Organization recommend techniques to encourage vaginal delivery to mitigate unnecessary cesarean deliveries and the associated complications. These techniques include Keilland’s rotational forceps delivery, direct forceps delivery, manual rotation followed by forceps delivery, or ventouse delivery. Although this study demonstrated that Keilland’s rotational forceps delivery may be associated with successful vaginal delivery, some clinicians currently avoid instrumental delivery to evade maternal or neonatal harm, which ultimately leads to less skilled instrumental delivery and therefore, a riskier alternative. This study evaluated the effectiveness and safety of instrumental vaginal delivery techniques. In addition, it compared adverse perinatal outcomes between instrumental delivery and primary emergency cesarean section at full dilation (pEmCS).

Risking Everything in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: An Analogue Decision-Making Study.

An experiment examined decision-making processes among nonclinical participants with low or high levels of OCD symptomatology (N = 303). To better simulate the decision environments that are most likely to be problematic for clients with OCD, we employed decision tasks that incorporated “black swan” options that have a very low probability but involve substantial loss. When faced with a choice between a safer option that involved no risk of loss or a riskier alternative with a very low probability of substantial loss, most participants chose the safer option regardless of OCD symptom level. However, when faced with choices between options that had similar expected values to the previous choices, but where each option had some low risk of a substantial loss, there was a significant shift towards riskier decisions. These effects were stronger when the task involved a contamination based, health-relevant decision task as compared to one with financial outcomes. The results suggest that both low and high symptom OC participants approach decisions involving risk-free options and decisions involving risky alternatives in qualitatively different ways. There was some evidence that measures of impulsivity were better predictors of the shift to risky decision making than OCD symptomatology.

COMPARING THE SMALL-SAMPLE ESTIMATION ERROR OF CONCEPTUALLY DIFFERENT RISK MEASURES

Motivated by the need to correctly rank risky alternatives in many investment, insurance and operations research applications, this paper uses a generalized location and scale framework from utility theory to propose a simple but powerful metric for comparing the estimation error of conceptually different risk measures. In an illustrative application, we obtain this metric — the probability that a risk measure ranks two assets falsely in finite samples — via Monte Carlo simulation for fourteen popular measures of risk and different distributional settings. Its results allow us to highlight interesting risk measure properties such as their relative quality under varying degrees of skewness and kurtosis. Because of the generality of our approach, the error probabilities derived for classic risk measures can serve as a benchmark for newly proposed measures seeking to replace the classic ones in decision making. It also supports the identification of the most suitable risk measures for a given distributional environment.

Educating Pharmacists on the Risks of Strong Opioids With Descriptive and Simulated Experience Risk Formats: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Objectives. High opioid prescription rates in the United States and Europe suggest miscalibrated risk perceptions among those who prescribe, dispense, and take opioids. Findings from cognitive decision science suggest that risk perceptions and behaviors can differ depending on whether people learn about risks by experience or description. This study investigated effects of a descriptive versus an experience-based risk education format on pharmacists’ risk perceptions and counseling behavior in the long-term administration of strong opioids to patients with chronic noncancer pain. Methods. In an exploratory, randomized controlled online trial, 300 German pharmacists were randomly assigned to either a descriptive format (fact box) or a simulated experience format (interactive simulation). Primary Outcome Measures. 1) Objective risk perception, 2) subjective risk perception, and 3) intended and 4) actual counseling behavior. Results. Both risk formats significantly improved pharmacists’ objective risk perception, but pharmacists exposed to the fact box estimated the benefit-harm ratio more accurately than those exposed to the simulation. Both formats proved equally effective in adjusting pharmacists’ subjective risk perception toward a better recognition of opioids’ harms; however, pharmacists receiving the simulation showed a greater change in their actual counseling behavior and higher consistency between their intended and actual counseling than pharmacists receiving the fact box. Conclusion. The simulated experience format was less effective than the descriptive format in improving pharmacists’ objective risk perception, equally effective in motivating pharmacists to counsel patients on less risky treatment alternatives and more effective in changing the reported actual counseling behavior. Implications. These exploratory findings provide important insights into the relevance of the description-experience gap for drug safety and raise questions for future research regarding the specific mechanisms at work.

Discrete Choice under Risk with Limited Consideration

This paper is concerned with learning decision-makers’ preferences using data on observed choices from a finite set of risky alternatives. We propose a discrete choice model with unobserved heterogeneity in consideration sets and in standard risk aversion. We obtain sufficient conditions for the model’s semi-nonparametric point identification, including in cases where consideration depends on preferences and on some of the exogenous variables. Our method yields an estimator that is easy to compute and is applicable in markets with large choice sets. We illustrate its properties using a dataset on property insurance purchases. (JEL D81, D83, D91, G22, G52)

Lady Luck: Anthropomorphized Luck Creates Perceptions of Risk-Sharing and Drives Pursuit of Risky Alternatives

AbstractWe examine decision-making under risk as a function of the degree to which consumers anthropomorphize their luck. We propose that consumers make riskier financial decisions when they anthro...

Exit, Voice, Loyalty … or Deliberate Obstruction? Non-Collective Everyday Resistance under Oppression.

In highly oppressive environments, collective resistance is very costly. Non-collective resistance constitutes a less risky alternative. Focusing on a particular oppressed setting, the Occupied Palestinian Territories, I identify everyday forms of non-collective resistance: signaling, persevering, eschewing, and coping. Characterized by low visibility and targeting political goals indirectly, these activities have not yet been recognized as forms of resistance. However, they constitute important resistance efforts that deliberately obstruct oppressive regimes. These efforts show that individuals who are not visibly resisting their rulers cannot be assumed to be loyal or to suffer from a barrier of fear, as often suggested by theories in politics. They also offer an important addition to theories that identify violence as a common response to oppression, suggesting that peaceful non-collective activities constitute an everyday alternative.

Advances in understanding meso-cortico-limbic-striatal systems mediating risky reward seeking.

The risk of an aversive consequence occurring as the result of a reward-seeking action can have a profound effect on subsequent behavior. Such aversive events can be described as punishers, as they decrease the probability that the same action will be produced again in the future and increase the exploration of less risky alternatives. Punishment can involve the omission of an expected rewarding event ("negative" punishment) or the addition of an unpleasant event ("positive" punishment). Although many individuals adaptively navigate situations associated with the risk of negative or positive punishment, those suffering from substance use disorders or behavioral addictions tend to be less able to curtail addictive behaviors despite the aversive consequences associated with them. Here, we discuss the psychological processes underpinning reward seeking despite the risk of negative and positive punishment and consider how behavioral assays in animals have been employed to provide insights into the neural mechanisms underlying addictive disorders. We then review the critical contributions of dopamine signaling to punishment learning and risky reward seeking, and address the roles of interconnected ventral striatal, cortical, and amygdala regions to these processes. We conclude by discussing the ample opportunities for future study to clarify critical gaps in the literature, particularly as related to delineating neural contributions to distinct phases of the risky decision-making process.

Boredom proneness is associated with noisy decision-making, not risk-taking.

Previous research shows that individuals who tend to get bored frequently and intensely—the highly boredom prone—are more likely to engage in risky behaviors. However, these studies are based largely on self-reports. Here we address this gap and suggest that noisy decision-making (DM) is a potential driver for this relationship between boredom proneness and risk-taking. In Study 1, eighty-six participants completed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) while EEG was recorded. We found blunted feedback processing with higher boredom proneness, as indexed by reduced feedback-P3 amplitudes. Risk taking, as indexed by the BART, was not higher in the highly boredom prone. In Study 2a (N = 404) we directly tested the noisy DM hypothesis in an online sample using a binary choice task, and found that with higher boredom proneness, participants were more likely to alternate between choices on a trial-to-trial basis, but were not more likely to choose the risky alternative. These findings were replicated in a new sample (Study 2b), and extended to the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Study 3). In the IGT we found increased choice switching and reduced feedback sensitivity with higher boredom proneness. Once again, higher risk taking as indexed by the IGT was not evident in the highly boredom prone. Overall, our findings suggest that boredom proneness is associated with noisy decision-making (i.e., a tendency to alternate more between choice options regardless of risk level), and not risk-seeking per se. That is, the highly boredom prone are not necessarily attracted to risks, but rather, may be insensitive to risks due to reduced feedback sensitivity.

Effects of the Menu of Loan Contracts on Borrower Behavior

We study how the menu of contracts presented to a decision maker—including contracts she may be precluded from choosing—affects her choice of remunerative but risky actions relative to lower paying, less risky alternatives. We do this through a series of laboratory experiments modeled after the loan repayment options offered to U.S. student borrowers, analyzing borrowers’ task (career) choices in settings that vary the menu of available and unavailable loan repayment plans and knowledge of unavailable options. In these experiments, we observe behavior that is inconsistent with predictions from standard economic models in which agents can easily make complex decisions and each alternative in a choice set is evaluated independently of other potential options. Instead, we provide evidence that expanding the menu of choices or making an agent aware of choices that she has been denied can affect how a contract is valued. Our empirical findings are most consistent with behavioral models that allow for anticipated regret over a choice that turns out to be suboptimal ex post or preferences for simplicity and gratitude for being unburdened from having to make a choice. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, decision analysis.

Determinants of Risky Sexual Behaviour among Inmates in Katsina Correctional Service: A Mixed Methods Study

Background: Incarceration does not vitiate sexual desire. Therefore, sexual activities occur behind bars, regardless of the stringent rules in correctional institutions. However, little has been documented about risky sexual behaviors, determinants, and experiences among inmates of correctional institutions in Katsina State, Nigeria. The study determined the sexual practices, prevalence, and determinants of risky sexual behaviors among prison inmates in Katsina. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional design with concurrent mixed methods of data collection was used to interview 216 inmates using a semi-structured questionnaire supplemented with 22 in-depth interviews. Result: Most (94%) respondents were male, almost half (44.4%) had secondary education, more than half (55.1%) were engaged in business or trading before incarceration, and the majority (75.9%) were awaiting trial. Nearly all inmates (98.6%) reported having sexual desire. Drug use (80.1%) and unprotected sex (79.2%) were quite common but sexual violence was low (7.4%). The number of sexual partners of respondents remained a significant predictor of sexual activity. Inmates who had one (1) or no sexual partner were 64% less likely to engage in risky sexual activity within the confines of the prison (AOR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.20 &#45 0.63, p = 0.01). Qualitative interviews revealed the denial of occurrence of sexual activity in prison despite sexual desire felt by inmates; loneliness, poverty, and curiosity as motives for sexual relations; denial of occurrence of sexual violence in prison; and drug use and use of unsterilized sharps as risky sexual behaviors. Conclusion: Despite the disciplinary action meted out on inmates, prisoners still engaged in a range of risky sexual behaviors. Conjugal visitations for married inmates could be considered to reduce sexually deviant and risky alternatives of relieving sexual desire among prisoners.

Wilding liability in education: Introducing the concept of wide risk as counterpoint to narrow-risk-driven educative practice

Consideration of risk and liability in outdoor educative practice has normally been limited to the narrow risks, usually to physical health, of incidents that can cause a particular injury. In this view of risk management, the more readily controlled the circumstance, the less likelihood of risk and consequent liability. Thus, to reduce risk, learning in the natural world is often avoided because it occurs in far more complex and less controllable contexts than human-created ones. However, wider and more grave risks to physical, emotional and mental health that may accrue through a life that is lived in separation from the natural world are not often considered or evaluated. In part, this may be because these kinds of risks are less immediately evident, and liability for negative outcomes may be more difficult to measure. Thus, there is less incentive to consider them. However, delayed outcomes are still outcomes. To consider easily discerned narrow risk alone, while ignoring more complex and longer-term wide risk, is no excuse for avoiding the ethical responsibility that public education carries to provide both the safest and most fecund context for learning. This paper introduces the concept of wide risk as a counterpoint to the narrow risk calculations now performed, and argues that in incorporating an understanding of wide risk in educative practice, at least two results are likely. The first is that learning outdoors will frequently be discovered to be a less risky alternative, if a broad range of outcomes over time are considered. The second is that the value of embracing risk in all aspects of learning ought to become a part of the learning process, and part of what is taught in public schools.