Risk Stratification Management Research Articles

Abstract PO2-17-11: Management guidelines for epithelial atypia diagnosed in breast screening, based on an analysis of a large prospective cohort study (Sloane Project)

Abstract Background: Epithelial atypia in the breast is most frequently detected through breast screening. Internationally, guidelines differ between advising diagnostic surgical excision of screen-detected atypia versus vacuum-assisted excision (VAE), often with annual follow up surveillance mammography. Prospective data with detailed follow-up and outcomes for subsequent cancer events is lacking. We evaluated a large prospective cohort of screen-detected atypia (Sloane Project) and an expert consensus meeting to develop management recommendations. Methods: We undertook an observational analysis of women with screen-detected epithelial atypia (Atypical Ductal Hyperplasia (ADH), Flat Epithelial Atypia (FEA), Lobular In Situ Neoplasia (LISN), or mixed atypia) reported to the National Health Service (NHS) Breast Screening Programme (BSP) between 01/04/03 and 20/06/18. We estimated cumulative incidence of invasive cancers per 1000 women within 1 and 2 subsequent screening rounds using cumulative incidence functions and repeated these by women’s age, type of atypia and year of diagnosis. Flexible parametric modelling produced hazard ratios (HR). The results were presented at a consensus meeting with clinical experts, patient representation, national decision-makers and commissioners from the NHS in England. A consensus on management recommendations was reached. Results: Among 3238 women (19088 person-years of follow up) with screen-detected atypia, diagnoses increased from 2010 (n=119) to 2015 (n=502). This coincided with the introduction of digital mammography into English screening centres from 2010 and changes in biopsy technique. A total of 141 invasive breast cancers were detected up to December 2018. Cumulative incidence of invasive breast cancer per 1000 women with atypia (ADH, FEA, LISN or mixed) was 14.2 (95% CI 10.3, 19.1) and 45.0 (36.3, 55.1) at 3- and 6-years post atypia based on 40 and 94 cancers, respectively. Women diagnosed with atypia during 2013-2018 had an invasive cancer detected less frequently within 3 years than women with an atypia diagnosis between 2003-2007 or 2008-2012 (6.0 invasive cancers (3.1, 10.9) per 1000 women in 2013-2018 Vs 24.3 (13.7, 40.1) and 24.6 (14.9, 38.3) in 2003-2007 and 2008-2012), suggesting that atypia diagnosis may increasingly contribute to ‘overdiagnosis’. Cancers detected were similar to the general screening population regarding grade, size and nodal involvement. Ipsilateral and contralateral cancers were detected in equal numbers, supporting the concept that atypia represents a risk factor rather than precursor of invasive cancer in the short term. Results by age and type of atypia did not suggest a need for risk-stratified management. Considering subsequent invasive cancer, VAE appeared to be as safe as diagnostic surgical excision of atypia (HR 0.75 (0.45, 1.25)). The expert consensus considered that increased screening of women with screen-detected atypia over and above routine 3-yearly screening was not beneficial, given the overall low numbers of cancers at three years. This applied to all types of atypia and all women who received digital mammography and diagnosis of atypia on core or vacuum-assisted biopsy followed by VAE within a quality assured NHS BSP. Conclusions: Breast atypia represents a risk factor for invasive cancer and does not necessitate surgical excision. Changes to mammography (digital vs plain film) and biopsy techniques (gauge of needle and use of vacuum-assistance) may lead to detection of atypia which is then ‘over-managed’. Current recommendations for annual mammography for 5 years after a diagnosis of epithelial atypia may be overly cautious. We suggest that women with screen detected atypia should be followed up with routine screening appointments. Citation Format: Karoline Freeman, David Jenkinson, Karen Clements, Matthew Wallis, Sarah E Pinder, Elena Provenzano, Hilary Stobart, Nigel Stallard, Olive Kearins, Nisha Sharma, Abeer Shaaban, Cliona Kirwan, Bridget Hilton, Alastair Thompson, Sian Taylor-Phillips. Management guidelines for epithelial atypia diagnosed in breast screening, based on an analysis of a large prospective cohort study (Sloane Project) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-17-11.

Functional outcomes following anterior resection for colorectal cancer: a needs assessment and proposal of a nurse-led remote management algorithm.

With the rise of structured, remote follow-up of colorectal cancers, there is the potential risk of underdiagnosing and undermanaging low anterior resection syndrome (LARS). This cohort study aims to determine the rate of LARS and its patterns of care, with the aim of generating a risk-stratified management algorithm that can be employed for nurse-led follow-up. Patients who underwent elective anterior resection for the management of colorectal cancer between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2021 were sent quality-of-life questionnaires (EORTC-QLQ-CR29 and LARS score) and surveyed for LARS symptoms and management utilized. Out of 70 patients who completed questionnaires, 71.4% had LARS and 42.9% had major LARS. The international Delphi consensus definition identified more patients (n = 50) with LARS than the LARS score (n = 41). Tumours located <8 cm from the anal verge, ULAR, and temporary stoma were predictive of major LARS on univariate analysis. However, only temporary stoma was predictive for LARS (OR 7.89 (1.15-53.95), P = 0.035) and majors LARS (8.14 (1.79-37.01), P = 0.007) on multivariate analysis. Forty-four percent of patients with LARS did not have input from any health professional for this condition. Consultation with specialist allied health and/or colorectal surgeons ranged from 4% to 22%. Our study highlights that with the current remote follow-up system focused on cancer outcomes a significant proportion of patients with LARS are overlooked, resulting in the underutilization of relevant health professionals and management options. We propose a nurse-led management algorithm to address this issue while still minimizing surgical outpatient load.

Postresidency Practice Setting and Clinical Care Features According to 3 Versus 4 Years of Training in Family Medicine: A Length of Training Pilot Study.

Factors associated with physician practice choice include residency location, training experiences, and financial incentives. How length of training affects practice setting and clinical care features postgraduation is unknown. In this Length of Training Pilot (LoTP) study, we surveyed 366 graduates of 3-year (3YR) and 434 graduates of 4-year (4YR) programs 1 year after completion of training between 2013 and 2021. Variables assessed included reasons for practice setting choice, practice type, location, practice and community size, specialty mix, and clinical care delivery features (eg, integrated behavioral health, risk stratified care management). We compared different length of training models using χ2 or Fisher's exact tests for categorical variables and independent samples, and t test (unequal variances) for continuous variables. Response rates ranged from 50% to 88% for 3YR graduates and 68% to 95% for 4YR graduates. Scope of practice was a predominant reason for graduates choosing their eventual practice, and salary was a less likely reason for those completing 4 years versus 3 years of training (scope, 72% vs 55%, P=.001; salary, 15% vs 22%, P=.028). Community size, practice size, practice type, specialty mix, and practice in a federally designated underserved site did not differ between the two groups. We found no differences in patient-centered medical home features when comparing the practices of 3YR to 4YR graduates. Training length did not affect practice setting or practice features for graduates of LoTP programs. Future LoTP analyses will examine how length of training affects scope of practice and clinical preparedness, which may elucidate other elements associated with practice choice.

Validation of the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score during pregnancy: A nested case-control study.

Appendicitis poses diagnostic challenges. A correct diagnosis is important during pregnancy to avoid unnecessary surgery on the one hand and delayed surgery on the other hand, as both may negatively affect pregnancy outcomes. Clinical scores for risk-stratified management of suspected appendicitis are well established in adults but have not been validated during pregnancy. This nested case-control study evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score and imaging during pregnancy. By cross-linking national Swedish health registries from a defined geographical area, we identified a cohort of 154 women who underwent appendectomy for suspected appendicitis during pregnancy and a matched cohort of 232 pregnant women admitted for acute abdominal pain and suspected appendicitis but with a discharge diagnosis of nonspecific abdominal pain (NSAP). All variables were extracted from medical records. The diagnostic value of AIR score and imaging was estimated for patients with a final diagnosis of appendicitis compared with patients with negative appendectomy and NSAP patients. The final diagnoses for the operated patients were uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis in 49.4% and 26.6%, respectively, and negative appendectomy in 24.0%. Nearly half of all the patients underwent diagnostic imaging (41%), mainly by ultrasonography. The sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic imaging were 44.9% (95% CI 32.9%-57.4%) and 42.2% (95% CI 31.9%-53.1%), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of AIR score was 0.88 (95% CI 0.84-0.92) for all appendicitis and 0.90 (95% CI 0.84-0.95) for complicated appendicitis. The sensitivity for complicated appendicitis was 100% at a score of ≥4. The specificity for all appendicitis was 97% at a score of ≥9. The results of this study suggest that the AIR score may be a suitable diagnostic tool for risk stratification of pregnant women with abdominal pain and suspected appendicitis but further validation among pregnant women is needed.

"Better at home": Mixed methods report of intricacies in pediatric febrile neutropenia management.

Many febrile neutropenia (FN) episodes are low risk (LR) for severe outcomes and can safely receive less aggressive management and early hospital discharge. Validated risk tools are recommended by the Children's Oncology Group to identify LR FN episodes. However, the complex dynamics of early hospital discharge and burdens faced by caregivers associated with the FN episode have been inadequately described. An adapted quality-of-life (QoL) survey instrument was administered by a convergent mixed methods design; qualitative and quantitative data from two sources, the medical record and the mixed methods survey instrument, were independently analyzed prior to linkage and integration. Code book was informed by conceptual framework; open coding was used. Mixed methods analysis used joint display of results to determine meta-inferences. Twenty-eight patient-caregiver dyads participated with a response rate of 87%. Of the 27 FN episodes, 51.8% (14/27) were LR and 40.7% (11/27) had an early hospital discharge. The LR and early hospital discharge groups had higher mean QoL scores comparatively. Meta-inferences are reciprocal influencers and expand the complex situation; FN negatively affects the entire family, and the benefits of hospital management were outweighed by risks and worsened symptoms, so an individualized approach to management and care at home was preferred. Early discharge of LR FN episodes positively impacts QoL, yet risk-stratified management for FN is intricately complex. Optimal FN management should prioritize the patient's overall health; shared decision-making is recommended and can improve care delivery. These results should be confirmed in a larger, more heterogeneous population.

Prevalence of variant of unknown significance (VUS) in men with prostate cancer who serve as a benchmark for enhanced screening and for personalized therapy.

342 Background: Pathogenic variants (PVs) in DNA repair genes (DRG), such as in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, CHEK2, etc., have implications for prostate cancer (PCa) family genetic counselling, testing and risk stratification in men. However, understanding how to counsel patients with variants of unknown significance (VUS) is an unmet clinical need. On the other hand, there is the necessity to cautiously interpret VUS findings and to bolster VUS evaluations with additional evidence for pathogenicity. In this study, we aim to investigate the prevalence of germline VUS in men with PCa and their association with outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). Methods: This is a nested cohort case study from an ongoing PCa screening, set to identify and screen men in the Italian population with a genetic predisposition (AIRC - Fondazione AIRC per la Ricerca sul Cancro project IG 2020 ID 25027). Cases for the current analysis were selected by “Adam's rib strategy” searching for germline DRG variant in men with a diagnosis of high-risk PCa who were scheduled for RARP. After informed consent was signed, a blood sample was obtained. A previously validated multigene panel test was used to assess the presence of germline variants. PVs and VUS were classified according to the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and Association for Molecular Pathology consensus criteria and International Agency for Research on Cancer guidelines. The primary endpoint was to describe the prevalence of VUS and the secondary to correlate VUS with pathological outcomes after RARP. Results: A total of 118 men with diagnosis of PCa who underwent RP were enrolled. The mean age at diagnosis of PCa was 65.9 (±6.42) years; pathological grade was ISUP 1-2 in 58.0% patients and 3-5 in 42.0%. Of the 76 men evaluated, 18 (23.7%) had a VUS and 1 (1.32%) a pathogenic germline variant in BRCA1 and PALB2. Among those with VUS younger men at diagnosis were more likely to carry a VUS than older at diagnosis mean (age 64 ± 6.41 vs. 66 ± 7.20 years). Additionally, 33.3% vs 16.2 % were carrier of VUS and N+ and required adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy. No difference between ISUP at final pathology and positive margin rate were found. Conclusions: Our findings showed a high prevalence of VUS germline mutations in PCa patients undergoing RARP. These mutations seem to be associated with worse pathological outcomes. Limitations includes short follow-up and absence of non-Caucasian patients.

Early evaluation of aflatoxin occurrence risk using an ultra-sensitive immunoassay for pre-aflatoxin protein biomarker detection

The pre-aflatoxin protein biomarker PAB-01 is a key target for early predicting of aflatoxin occurrence risk. Improving its detection sensitivity is significant for the early evaluation of potential risks. In this study, we obtained the monoclonal antibody 6A6 against PAB-01 through hybridoma technology. A sandwich ELISA was developed using pairwise combinations of PAB-01 nanobody, monoclonal antibody, and polyclonal antibody. It was found that the nanobody as the capture antibody and monoclonal antibody as the detection antibody exhibited the highest sensitivity, with a detection limit of 0.92 ng/mL. Based on this, a rolling circle amplification-based immunoassay (RCA-EIA) was established, with a linear range of 0.056–41.152 ng/mL and a detection limit of 0.033 ng/mL. Recovery rates in spiked peanut and corn samples ranged from 94.49% to 127.50%. This method successfully identified the presence of the PAB-01 protein in maize samples 10 days prior to the aflatoxin production. Based on PAB-01 concentration classifications, the maize samples were categorized into different risk levels. This development is significant for early warning and risk stratification management of aflatoxin occurrence, providing a highly effective tool in ensuring food safety.

Preliminary study of HPV integration status on the occurrence and development of vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia.

The aim of this study was to investigate how the integration status of HPV in the vaginal epithelium affects the development of vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VaIN). Twenty-four vaginal tissues were collected before applying high-throughput viral integration detection (HIVID), medical records of them were documented, including age, thin-prep cytologic test (TCT) and HPV test results, colposcopic biopsy pathology, and other clinical data, such as history of total hysterectomy for cervical lesions, whether they were infected with HPV16/18 with a follow-up span of 2 years. We summarized the distribution of HPV integration on the host chromosome and HPV type, as well as the hotspot integration gene and its role in the development of VaIN. In this study, 24 cases suffered from VaIN were involved. HPV integration was detected in 11 cases; furthermore, we discovered HPV 16 and 73, chromosome 1 and 2 possessed most HPV integration sites while EMBP1, CLO5A1, EHF, ELF5 as dominate hot spots. Taken clinical outcome into account, we found a significant difference between HPV integration occurrence and VaIN (p = 0.011). (1) This study found a statistical difference between HPV integration and the occurrence of VaIN; (2) HPV integration may provide a new clinical predictor for VaIN and facilitate risk assessment and stratified management of high-risk patients.

Prospective External Validation of the Esbenshade Vanderbilt Models Accurately Predicts Bloodstream Infection Risk in Febrile Non-Neutropenic Children With Cancer.

The optimal management of fever without severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count [ANC] ≥500/µL) in pediatric patients with cancer is undefined. The previously proposed Esbenshade Vanderbilt (EsVan) models accurately predict bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs) in this population and provide risk stratification to aid management, but have lacked prospective external validation. Episodes of fever with a central venous catheter and ANC ≥500/µL occurring in pediatric patients with cancer were prospectively collected from 18 academic medical centers. Variables included in the EsVan models and 7-day clinical outcomes were collected. Five versions of the EsVan models were applied to the data with calculation of C-statistics for both overall BSI rate and high-risk organism BSI (gram-negative and Staphylococcus aureus BSI), as well as model calibration. In 2,565 evaluable episodes, the BSI rate was 4.7% (N = 120). Complications for the whole cohort were rare, with 1.1% (N = 27) needing intensive care unit (ICU) care by 7 days, and the all-cause mortality rate was 0.2% (N = 5), with only one potential infection-related death. C-statistics ranged from 0.775 to 0.789 for predicting overall BSI, with improved accuracy in predicting high-risk organism BSI (C-statistic 0.800-0.819). Initial empiric antibiotics were withheld in 14.9% of episodes, with no deaths or ICU admissions attributable to not receiving empiric antibiotics. The EsVan models, especially EsVan2b, perform very well prospectively across multiple academic medical centers and accurately stratify risk of BSI in episodes of non-neutropenic fever in pediatric patients with cancer. Implementation of routine screening with risk-stratified management for non-neutropenic fever in pediatric patients with cancer could safely reduce unnecessary antibiotic use.

Biochemical recurrence in patients with prostate cancer after primary definitive therapy: treatment based on risk stratification.

Nearly one-third of patients with prostate cancer (PCa) experience biochemical recurrence (BCR) after primary definitive treatment. BCR increases the risk of distant metastasis and mortality in patients with prognostically unfavorable features. These patients are best managed with a tailored treatment strategy incorporating risk stratification using clinicopathological factors, next-generation imaging, and genomic testing. This narrative review examines the utility of risk stratification for the management of patients with BCR in the context of clinical trial data, referencing the latest recommendations by European and US medical societies. PubMed was searched for relevant studies published through May 21 2023 on treatment of patients with BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). European and US guidelines support the risk-stratified management of BCR. Post-RP, salvage EBRT (with or without androgen deprivation therapy [ADT]) is an accepted treatment option for patients with BCR. Post-EBRT, local salvage therapies (RP, cryotherapy, high-intensity focused ultrasound, stereotactic body radiotherapy, and low-dose-rate and high-dose-rate brachytherapy) have demonstrated comparable relapse-free survival rates but differing adverse event profiles, short and long term. Local salvage therapies should be used for local-only relapses while ADT should be considered for regional or distant relapses. In practice, patients often receive ADT, with varying guidance for intermittent ADT vs. continuous ADT, due to consideration of quality-of-life effects. Despite a lack of consensus for BCR treatment among guideline associations and medical societies, risk stratification of patients is essential for personalized treatment approaches, as it allows for an informed selection of therapeutic strategies and estimation of adverse events. In lower-risk disease, observation is recommended while in higher-risk disease, after failed repeat local therapy, ADT and/or clinical trial enrollment may be appropriate. Results from ongoing clinical studies of patients with BCR should provide consensus for management.

Added value of arterial stiffness index for the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk determination in a middle-aged population-based study.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is considered the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Arterial stiffness, measured by arterial stiffness index (ASI), could be a main predictor in target damage of organs. Uncertainty remains regarding the contribution of ASI to estimated ASCVD risk. This study investigates the added value of ASI in ASCVD risk determination using the general UK Biobank middle-aged population. Among 100,598 participants from the UK Biobank population, ASI was assessed and associations between ASCVD risk were stratified by sex and estimated using multiple linear and logistic regressions adjusted for heart rate, physical activity, alcohol status, smocking pack years, BMI categories and CKD. Males presented higher ASCVD risk than females (8.58% vs. 2.82%, p < 0.001) and higher ASI levels (9.50m/s vs. 7.00m/s, p < 0.001). The Youden index was determined at 9.70m/s in males (p < 0.001) and 10.46m/s in females (p < 0.001). Among females, participants with ASI > 10.46m/s showed higher ASCVD risk than others (3.64% vs. 2.56%, p < 0.001), similar results were observed for males (9.92% vs. 7.21%, p < 0.001). In males, ASI showed significant added value information when including overall covariates (AUC = 0.695 vs. AUC = 0.663, p < 0.001). Similar results were observed in females (AUC = 0.693 vs. AUC = 0.687, p = 0.001). In both genders, for the association between ASI and ASCVD risk, nonlinear relationships were observed with higher accuracies than linear models. Further studies should investigate ASCVD risk stratification management depending on ASI measurement.

The m6A-related gene signature stratifies poor prognosis patients and characterizes immunosuppressive microenvironment in hepatocellular carcinoma.

N6-methyladenosine (m6A) is the most abundant epitranscriptomic modification of RNA, which can affect RNA metabolism and protein translation. The m6A modification plays a critical role in cancer development, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite several m6A-related signatures in HCC, most of them lack the necessary validation and the reliability is still elusive. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the Cancer Genome Atlas were comprehensively analyzed to identify m6A signature associated with HCC prognosis. Gene set enrichment analysis, tumor mutation burden (TMB), immune infiltration, and therapeutic response were evaluated. Importantly, mass spectrometry proteomics and multiplex immunofluorescence assays were performed for validation. The m6A-related protein-coding gene signature was established, which can divide HCC into high-/low-risk subgroups with markedly different overall survival (OS) and clinical stages. Furthermore, we validated its reliability and robustness in our 101 independent HCC specimens using proteomic detection and confirmed that our signature readily identified high-risk HCC patients with 3-year survival rates of 44.1% vs. 71.8% in the low-risk group. Functional analysis indicated that the high-risk group might stimulate the cell cycle and activate oncogenic pathways such as MAPK, mTOR, and VEGF, whereas the low-risk group mainly regulated amino acid, fatty acid, and drug metabolism. Additionally, the high-risk group had more TMB, upregulated immune checkpoint molecule expression, including PD-1, CTLA4, TIM3, and LAG3, and preferentially formed an immunosuppressive microenvironment. Accordingly, potential therapeutic responses showed that high-risk patients were potentially sensitive to inhibitors targeting the cell cycle and MAPK signaling, with patients possibly benefiting from immunotherapy. Moreover, multiplex immunofluorescence assays indicated that high-risk HCC samples displayed distinct immunosuppressive features, with abundant M2-polarized macrophages and T-regulatory cell infiltration. The m6A signature had a prominent capacity to evaluate OS and characterize the tumor immune microenvironment of HCC, which may serve as a useful approach for risk stratification management and provide a valuable clue to choosing rational therapeutic strategies.

Independent Prognostic Factors and Nomogram Prediction of Cancer-Specific Survival in Postoperative Patients With Spinal Cord Astrocytoma.

Retrospective cohort study. Spinal cord astrocytoma (SCA) is a rare central nervous system malignancy that typically requires early surgical intervention. However, the substantial frequency of relapse and bad outcomes limit the surgical advantage for patients. Herein, we aimed to determine the independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in post-surgical patients with primary SCA and to develop a new method to estimate the chances of CSS in these patients at 3-, 5- and 10-year. A total of 364 postoperative patients with SCA were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression assessments were used to identify independent prognostic indicators. Second, a nomogram was established by integrating these indicators to estimate 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS in patients with SCA who underwent surgery. Subsequently, the discriminatory power and predictive performance of the nomogram were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, a mortality risk stratification system was generated. Age, tumor stage, histological type, and radiotherapy were recognized as potential predictive indicators of CSS for postoperative patients with SCA. The ROC curve and DCA indicate that the nomogram has good accuracy and high clinical utility. Furthermore, the mortality risk stratification system efficiently divides patients into 3 risk subgroups. The nomogram could accurately anticipate the 3-, 5-, and 10-year percentages of CSS in postoperative patients with SCA. It could assist clinicians with personalized medical counseling, risk stratification management, and clinical decision-making, improving the clinical outcomes of these patients.

Risk-stratified management strategies for intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy: A tertiary center population review over nearly 5 years.

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is associated with an increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, resulting in a higher risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. The authors conducted a retrospective study of 2385 singletons with ICP who underwent risk-stratified management strategies. To explore the risks of perinatal outcomes of ICP, subgroup analyses were performed using different total bile acid (TBA) levels. In this study, there was only one stillbirth and one neonatal death. Among the study cohort, 2299 patients had ICP with a TBA level ≥10 μmol/L and 86 had ICP with a TBA level <10 μmol/L. The 2299 patients with ICP (TBA level ≥ 10 μmol/L) were divided into three groups: mild ICP (n = 1803), severe ICP (n = 400), and extremely severe ICP (n = 96). Increased TBA concentration was associated with an increased incidence of preterm birth, newborn asphyxia, neonatal intensive care unit hospitalization, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, and low birth weight in the three groups (P < 0.05). Furthermore, severe and extremely severe ICP with hypotonic absonant uterine contraction had a significant effect on neonatal asphyxia (odds ratio, 5.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.09-23.37]; P < 0.05) and meconium-stained amniotic fluid (odds ratio, 2.37 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-3.93]; P < 0.05). Hypotonic absonant uterine contractions could be high-risk stressors for severe and extremely severe ICP; hence, proper prenatal care is recommended. Risk-stratified management strategies for ICP are critical to obtaining better maternal-fetal outcomes.

The use of the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management's risk stratification algorithm in predicting falls in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

the aim of this study was to retrospectively operationalise the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management (WGFPM) falls risk stratification algorithm using data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We described how easy the algorithm was to operationalise in TILDA and determined its utility in predicting falls in this population. participants aged ≥50years were stratified as 'low risk', 'intermediate' or 'high risk' as per WGFPM stratification based on their Wave 1 TILDA assessments. Groups were compared for number of falls, number of people who experienced one or more falls and number of people who experienced an injury when falling between Wave 1 and Wave 2 (approximately 2years). 5,882 participants were included in the study; 4,521, 42 and 1,309 were classified as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively, and 10 participants could not be categorised due to missing data. At Wave 2, 17.4%, 43.8% and 40.5% of low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups reported having fallen, and 7.1%, 18.8% and 18.7%, respectively, reported having sustained an injury from falling. the implementation of the WGFPM risk assessment algorithm was feasible in TILDA and successfully differentiated those at greater risk of falling. The high number of participants classified in the low-risk group and lack of differences between the intermediate and high-risk groups may be related to the non-clinical nature of the TILDA sample, and further study in other samples is warranted.

Comparison of SCORE and SCORE 2 model for cardiovascular risk stratification in men and women from high risk European country

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. European Society of Cardiology has recently introduced new SCORE 2 algorhythm for cardiovascular risk assessment in apparently healthy individuals. However, there are limited data from high risk countries on CV risk stratification and potential gender differences in risk estimation using SCORE 2 model. The aim of the current study was to compare risk prediction using SCORE 2 and previous SCORE model and to assess the potential gender differences in risk estimation. Methods Our study included 1361 apparently healthy individuals (mean age 56±9 years, 61% women) without known CV disease or risk factors aged 40 to 70 years old. Data on CV risk factors were prospectively collected in 20 primary care centers throughout Serbia from January 2020 to December 2020. CV risk was assessed both by SCORE and SCORE 2 model. Based on CV risk profile individuals were stratified in three categories: low to intermediate, high and very high risk category. Results In overall population using SCORE model 57.6% of individuals were in low-intermediate group, 20.9% were classified as high risk group and 21.5% as very high risk group. By the use of SCORE 2 model 1046/1361 (77%) individuals were shifted to higher risk category (Figure). In comparison to men women had lower both systolic (139 ± 19 mmHg vs 144 ± 18 mmHg in men p &amp;lt; 0.001) and diastolic (84 ± 9 mmHg vs 88 ± 10mmHg in men, p &amp;lt; 0.001 )blood pressure, lower BMI (26.4 ± 0.5 kg/m2 vs 27.4 ± 5.0 kg/m2 in men, p= 0.036) and higher values of HDL cholesterol (1.5 ± 0.5 mmol/L vs. 1.3 ± 0.4 mmol/L in men, p &amp;lt; 0.001). Smoking was more prevalent in men (49%) than in women (42%), p=0.04. There were no gender differences in age (56 ± 9 years for both genders) and non-HDL cholesterol ( 4.86 ± 1.24 mmol in men vs. 4.75 ± 1.23 mmol/l in women, p= 0.100). More women (85.9%) than men (62.6%) were shifted in higher risk category using SCORE 2 in comparison to SCORE (p &amp;lt; 0.001) (Figure). Conclusion By the use of SCORE 2 instead of SCORE prediction model for CV risk stratification in contemporary high risk European population significant proportion of apparently healthy individuals are shifted to higher risk category. In spite of having better CV risk factors profile, more women than men were shifted in higher risk category.

Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 Correlates with Reduced Left Ventricle Ejection Fraction in Hemodialysis Patients.

Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is common in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is considered an important determinant of cardiovascular events. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between Lp-PLA2 and LVEF in HD patients. Fifty-seven HD patients with coronary heart disease were enrolled. Predialysis and postdialysis venous whole blood samples were collected. The patients were divided into preserved and reduced LVEF groups. The relationship between Lp-PLA2 and LVEF was assessed. A significant difference in C-reactive protein (CRP) and Lp-PLA2 was observed, with higher levels noted in patients with reduced LVEF (P≤.001). Both Lp-PLA2 and CRP were negatively correlated with LVEF in the HD patients. Only Lp-PLA2 remained associated with LVEF in multiple regression analysis. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 levels are associated with LVEF and could potentially be used to evaluate chronic heart failure with reduced LVEF in HD patients for risk stratification management.

Nomograms for Prediction of High-Volume Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients.

The coexistence rate between chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (CLT) and papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is quite high. Whether CLT influences metastatic lymph nodes remains uncertain. High-volume lymph node metastasis is recommended as an unfavorable pathological feature. We aimed to investigate risk factors for high-volume central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in PTC patients. Retrospective cohort study. Changzhou First People's Hospital. Clinicopathological characteristics of 1094 PTC patients who underwent surgery in our center from January 2019 to November 2021 were analyzed. The number of metastatic lymph nodes in the central compartment and lateral compartment were lower in the CLT group. We demonstrated that age, BRAF V600E, shape, and the number of foci were risk factors for high-volume CLNM in patients with CLT. For patients without CLT, sex, age, tumor size, number of foci, and margin were risk factors for high-volume CLNM. Tumor size, number of foci, location, and CLNM were all risk factors for high-volume LLNM in patients with or without CLT. Body mass index was only associated with high-volume LLNM in CLT patients. All the above factors were incorporated into nomograms, which showed perfect discriminative ability. Separate predictive systems should be used for CLT and non-CLT patients for a more accurate clinical assessment of lymph node status. Our nomograms of predicting high-volume CLNM and LLNM could facilitate risk-stratified management of PTC recurrence and treatment decisions.

Melanocytic Lesions with Peripheral Globules: Proposal of an Integrated Management Algorithm.

A peripheral rim of globules represents a marker of the horizontal growth phase in nevi and is a common feature in children and adolescents. The observation of melanocytic lesions with peripheral globules (MLPGs) in adulthood deserves more attention, since melanoma may exhibit this feature, albeit rarely. Risk-stratified management recommendations considering a global clinical approach are still missing. To analyze current knowledge on MLPGs and propose an integrated management algorithm stratified for age groups. We conducted a narrative review of current published data on MLPGs, analyzing clinical dermoscopic and confocal distinguishing features of melanoma from benign nevi. The risk of finding a melanoma when removing an MLPG increases with age, especially in people >55 years old, and is significantly higher in the extremities, head/neck and in case of a single asymmetrical lesion, ≥6 mm in diameter. Dermoscopic features associated with melanoma diagnosis include atypical peripheral globules, asymmetrical distribution, multiple rims as well as the reappearance of globules after prior loss. In addition, wide blue-grey regression areas, atypical networks, eccentric blotches, tan structureless peripheral areas and vascularization are atypical dermoscopic features. Confocal worrisome findings are represented by pagetoid cells within the epidermis, architectural disarrangement and atypical cells of the dermo-epidermal junction with irregular peripheral nests. We proposed a multi-step age-stratified management algorithm integrating clinical, dermoscopic and confocal findings that may increase the early recognition of melanoma and avoid surgical excision of benign nevi.

Role of fibrinogen, albumin and fibrinogen to albumin ratio in determining angiographic severity and outcomes in acute coronary syndrome.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic unmasked the huge deficit in healthcare resources worldwide. It highlighted the need for efficient risk stratification in management of cardiovascular emergencies. To study the applicability of the old, available and affordable nonconventional biomarkers: albumin and fibrinogen in their ability to predict angiographic severity and clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). In this prospective, observational study, 166 consecutive patients with ACS were enrolled. Fibrinogen, albumin and their ratio were determined from serum. Patients with underlying chronic liver disease, active malignancy, autoimmune disease, active COVID-19 infection and undergoing thrombolysis were excluded. Mean age of the population was 60.5 ± 1.5 years, 74.1% being males. ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was most common presentation of ACS seen in 57% patients. Fibrinogen albumin ratio (FAR) ≥ 19.2, had a sensitivity of 76.9% and specificity of 78.9 % [area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) = 0.8, P = 0.001] to predict ≤ thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) 1 flow in culprit artery in STEMI patients. Even in non-STEMI patients, FAR ≥ 18.85 predicted the same with 80% sensitivity and 63% specificity (AUROC = 0.715, P = 0.006). Novel biomarkers, with their high cost, lack of availability and long turn over time are impractical for real-world use. Identifying ≤ TIMI 1 flow in the culprit artery has significant impact of management and outcome. Our study has shown that readily available biomarkers like fibrinogen and albumin can help identify these high-risk patients with good accuracy. This allows risk-stratification and individualization of treatment in ACS.