Individual Risk Stratification Research Articles

Associations between adrenal gland volume and adipose tissue compartments – a whole body MRI study

BackgroundObesity is associated with alterations in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis. Effects of glucocorticoids on adipose tissues appear to depend on the specific adipose depot, in which they take place. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of MRI-based adrenal gland volume as an imaging marker in association with different adipose tissue compartments.MethodsThe study cohort derives from the population-based research platform KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Augsburg Region, Germany) MRI sub-study, a cross-sectional sub-study investigating the interactions between subclinical metabolic changes and cardiovascular disease in a study sample of 400 participants. Originally, eligible subjects underwent a whole-body MRI. MRI-based segmentations were performed manually and semi-automatically for adrenal gland volume, visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), epi- and pericardial fat and renal sinus fat. Hepatic and pancreatic lipid content were measured as pancreatic proton density fraction (PDFF) and MR-spectroscopic hepatic fat fraction (HFF). Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed.ResultsA number of 307 participants (56.2 ± 9.1 years, 60.3% male, 14.3% with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), 30.6% with obesity, 34.2% with hypertension) were included. In multivariable analyses, strong positive associations between adrenal gland volume and VAT, total adipose tissue (TAT) as well as HFF persisted after extensive step-wise adjustment for possible metabolic confounders (VAT: beta = 0.31, 95%-CI [0.71, 0.81], p < 0.001; TAT: beta = 0.14, 95%-CI [0.06, 0.23], p < 0.001; HFF: beta = 1.17, 95%-CI [1.04, 1.31], p = 0.009). In contrast, associations between adrenal gland volume and SAT were attenuated in multivariate analysis after adjusting for BMI. Associations between pancreatic PDFF, epi- and pericardial fat and renal sinus fat were mediated to a great extent by VAT (pancreatic PDFF: 72%, epicardial adipose tissue: 100%, pericardial adipose tissue: 100%, renal sinus fat: 81.5%).ConclusionOur results found MRI-based adrenal gland volume as a possible imaging biomarker of unfavorable adipose tissue distribution, irrespective of metabolic risk factors. Thus, adrenal gland volume may serve as a potential MRI-based biomarker of metabolic changes and contributes to an individual characterization of metabolic states and individual risk stratification. Future studies should elucidate in a longitudinal study design, if and how HPA axis activation may trigger unfavorable adipose tissue distribution and whether and to which extent this is involved in the pathogenesis of manifest metabolic syndrome.

Peri-coronary fat attenuation index combined with high-risk plaque characteristics quantified from coronary computed tomography angiography for risk stratification in new-onset chest pain individuals without acute myocardial infarction.

This study aims to evaluate the role of the peri-coronary Fat Attenuation Index (FAI) and High-Risk Plaque Characteristics (HRPC) in the assessment of coronary heart disease risk. By conducting coronary CT angiography and coronary angiography on 217 patients with newly developed chest pain (excluding acute myocardial infarction), their degree of vascular stenosis, FAI, and the presence and quantity of HRPC were assessed. The study results demonstrate a correlation between FAI and HRPC, and the combined use of FAI and HRPC can more accurately predict the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Additionally, the study found that patients with high FAI were more prone to exhibit high-risk plaque characteristics, severe stenosis, and multiple vessel disease. After adjustment, the combination of FAI and HRPC improved the ability to identify and reclassify MACE. Furthermore, the study identified high FAI as an independent predictor of MACE in patients undergoing revascularization, while HRPC served as an independent predictor of MACE in patients not undergoing revascularization. These findings suggest the potential clinical value of FAI and HRPC in the assessment of coronary heart disease risk, particularly in patients with newly developed chest pain excluding acute myocardial infarction.

Therapeutic options for different metastatic sites arising from renal cell carcinoma: A review.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) stands among the top 10 malignant neoplasms with the highest fatality rates. It exhibits pronounced heterogeneity and robust metastatic behavior. Patients with RCC may present with solitary or multiple metastatic lesions at various anatomical sites, and their prognoses are contingent upon the site of metastasis. When deliberating the optimal therapeutic approach for a patient, thorough evaluation of significant risk factors such as the feasibility of complete resection, the presence of oligometastases, and the patient's functional and physical condition is imperative. Recognizing the nuanced differences in RCC metastasis to distinct organs proves advantageous in contemplating potential treatment modalities aimed at optimizing survival outcomes. Moreover, discerning the metastatic site holds promise for enhancing risk stratification in individuals with metastatic RCC. This review summarizes the recent data pertaining to the current status of different RCC metastatic sites and elucidates their role in informing clinical management strategies across diverse metastatic locales of RCC.

Preoperative abnormal bone mineral density as a prognostic indicator in patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer: A cohort study.

Predicting postgastrectomy relapse and mortality in patients with gastric cancer (GC) remains challenging, with limitations to traditional staging systems such as the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) system. This study aimed to investigate the impact of preoperative Hounsfield unit (HU) values, which serve as a surrogate marker for bone mineral density (BMD), in predicting survival outcomes in patients with GC. A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from patients with GC who underwent curative-intent gastrectomy. Opportunistic abdominopelvic computed tomography images were used to assess HU values at the 3rd lumbar vertebra (L3). These values were then categorized using a cutoff value of 110 HU, which has been established in previous studies as a determinant for abnormal versus normal BMD. Cox regression analysis established predictor models for overall survival (OS). Among 501 initial patients, 478 met the inclusion criteria. Multivariate analyses revealed HU values (hazard ratio, 1.51), along with other factors (the 5-factor modified frailty index, type of gastrectomy, TNM stage, anemia, and serum albumin level), as significant predictors of OS. The full model (FM) incorporating these variables demonstrated superior discrimination ability compared to the baseline model (BM), which is based solely on the TNM stage (concordance index: 0.807 vs 0.709; P < .001). Furthermore, the FM outperformed the BM in predicting OS risks at 36- and 60-months post-surgery. In conclusion, among patients undergoing gastrectomy for GC, those with HU values ≤ 110 (indicating abnormal BMD) at the L3 level, as determined through opportunistic CT scans, exhibited a poorer prognosis than those with HU values > 110 (indicating normal BMD). Integrating HU with other clinicopathological parameters enhances predictive accuracy, facilitating individualized risk stratification and treatment decision-making, which could potentially lead to improved survival outcomes.

A predictive model using MRI and clinicopathologic features for breast cancer recurrence in young women treated with upfront surgery.

To identify preoperative breast MR imaging and clinicopathological variables related to recurrence and develop a risk prediction model for recurrence in young women with breast cancer treated with upfront surgery. This retrospective study analyzed 438 consecutive women with breast cancer aged 35 years or younger between January 2007 and December 2016. Breast MR images before surgery were independently reviewed by breast radiologists blinded to patient outcomes. The clinicopathological data including patient demographics, clinical features, and tumor characteristics were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent factors associated with recurrence. The risk prediction model for recurrence was developed, and the discrimination and calibration abilities were assessed. Of 438 patients, 95 (21.7%) developed recurrence after a median follow-up of 65 months. Tumor size at MR imaging (HR = 1.158, p = 0.006), multifocal or multicentric disease (HR = 1.676, p = 0.017), and peritumoral edema on T2WI (HR = 2.166, p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of recurrence, while adjuvant endocrine therapy (HR = 0.624, p = 0.035) was inversely associated with recurrence. The prediction model showed good discrimination ability in predicting 5-year recurrence (C index, 0.707 in the development cohort; 0.686 in the validation cohort) and overall recurrence (C index, 0.699 in the development cohort; 0.678 in the validation cohort). The calibration plot demonstrated an excellent correlation (concordance correlation coefficient, 0.903). A prediction model based on breast MR imaging and clinicopathological features showed good discrimination to predict recurrence in young women with breast cancer treated with upfront surgery, which could contribute to individualized risk stratification. Our prediction model, incorporating preoperative breast MR imaging and clinicopathological features, predicts recurrence in young women with breast cancer undergoing upfront surgery, facilitating personalized risk stratification and informing tailored management strategies. Younger women with breast cancer have worse outcomes than those diagnosed at more typical ages. The described prediction model showed good discrimination performance in predicting 5-year and overall recurrence. Incorporating better risk stratification tools in this population may help improve outcomes.

Antepartum Intimate Partner Violence: Development of a Risk Prediction Model.

Objectives: To explore socio-behavioral, clinical, and imaging findings associated with antepartum intimate partner violence (IPV) and aid in risk stratification of at-risk individuals. Methods: We analyzed electronic medical records during indexed pregnancies for 108 pregnant patients who self-reported antepartum IPV (cases) and 106 age-matched pregnant patients who did not self-report antepartum IPV (controls). Sociodemographic, clinical, and radiology data were analyzed via chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests with p < 0.05 as the threshold for significance. Stepwise logistic regression was applied to derive a risk prediction model. Results: The proportion of cases reporting emotional IPV (76% vs. 52%) and/or physical IPV (45% vs. 31%) during pregnancy significantly increased from prior to pregnancy. Cases were significantly more likely to report prepregnancy substance use (odds ratio [OR] = 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-5.98), sexually transmitted infections (OR = 3.48; 95%CI: 1.64-7.37), abortion (OR = 3.17; 95%CI: 1.79, 5.59), and preterm birth (OR = 5.97; 95%CI: 1.69-21.15). During pregnancy, cases were more likely to report unstable housing (OR = 5.26; 95%CI: 2.67-10.36), multigravidity (OR = 2.83; 95%CI: 1.44-5.58), multiparity (OR = 3.75; 95%CI: 1.72-8.20), anxiety (OR = 3.35; 95%CI: 1.85-6.08), depression (OR = 5.58; 95%CI: 3.07-10.16), substance use (OR = 2.92; 95%CI: 1.28-6.65), urinary tract infection (UTI) (OR = 3.26; 95%CI: 1.14-9.32), intrauterine growth restriction (OR = 10.71; 95%CI: 1.35-85.25), and cesarean delivery (OR = 2.25; 95%CI: 1.26-4.02). Cases had significantly more OBGYN abnormalities on imaging and canceled more radiological studies (OR = 5.31). Logistic regression found housing status, sexually transmitted infection history, preterm delivery history, abortion history, depression, and antepartum UTI predictive of antepartum IPV. The risk prediction model achieved good calibration with an area under the curve of 0.79. Conclusions: This study identifies significant disparities among patients experiencing antepartum IPV, and our proposed risk prediction model can inform risk assessment in this setting.

IMPLANTABLE LOOP RECORDER IN BRUGADA SYNDROME: INSIGHTS FROM A SINGLE–CENTER EXPERIENCE

Abstract Brugada syndrome (BrS) is characterized by a “coved” ST segment elevation of ≥2 mm in the right precordial electrocardiographic (ECG) leads, either spontaneously or drug–induced. Risk stratification in individuals with BrS remains challenging. Currently, miniaturized and remotely monitored implantable loop recorders (ILRs) are available, providing physicians with a diagnostic tool that can help guide intervention or therapy decisions for these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the characteristics and outcomes of patients diagnosed with BrS who underwent ICM insertion during routine clinical activity. This is a retrospective single center cohort study. We screened 147 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with BrS based on the presence of spontaneous or drug–induced type 1 ECG pattern between January 2009 and May 2023. Once this comprehensive diagnostic pathway was completed, we engaged in detailed counseling with patients to discuss the potential need for ICD implantation or ILR insertion, if deemed indicated. Compared to patients who did not receive a device, those who received an ILR had a higher prevalence of suspected arrhythmic syncope (43% vs. 22%, p=0.012) and tended to be younger (median age 38 years, IQR 30–52, vs. 43 years, IQR 35–55, p=0.044) and with a higher presence of SCN5A gene mutations (17% vs. 6%). On the other hand, compared to patients who received an ICD, those with an ICM underwent programmed ventricular stimulation less frequently (40% vs. 85%, p=0.010) and, as a result, had a lower frequency of positive result of this test (0% vs. 91%, p&amp;lt; 0.001). During a median follow–up period of 14.7 months (IQR, 4.7–44.8), no deaths occurred among the patients with ILR. Eight individuals (19%) were diagnosed with arrhythmic findings through continuous ILR monitoring. Among these findings, three patients experienced AF (including one case of new–onset AF), two patients exhibited symptomatic asystolic pauses lasting 16 seconds and 3.6 seconds respectively, two patients had non–sustained ventricular tachycardia, and one patient had episodes of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia. Except for a history of AF, no significant differences were observed between patients with arrhythmic findings and those without any events. In the ICD group, the median follow–up period was 32.2 months (IQR, 23.2–95.0). During this period, no deaths occurred and no appropriate or inappropriate ICD therapies were delivered.

Predictive value of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Diabetes risk model and arterial stiffness for cardiovascular events in the Asian population with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Individuals with diabetes are at high risk of developing cardiovascular events. The present study investigated the predictive value of the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) when added to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Diabetes (SCORE2-Diabetes) risk algorithm to predict cardiovascular events in the Asian population. The SCORE2-Diabetes risk was assessed in 1,502 patients with diabetes, aged 40-69 years. Then, we further stratified each 10-year risk category with a CAVI value of 9.0. The primary outcomes (composite of all causes of death, myocardial infarction, stroke and hospitalization for heart failure) were assessed over 5 years. The mean age of the population was 59.8 ± 6.4 years. The proportion of 10-year risk according to the SCORE2-Diabetes risk of low, moderate, high and very high risk identified at 7.2, 30.0, 27.2 and 35.6%, respectively. The mean CAVI value was 8.4 ± 1.4, and approximately 35.4% of the patients had CAVI ≥9.0. The SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm independently predicted the primary outcomes in patients with diabetes (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.22), whereas CAVI did not (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.89-1.18). The C-index for the primary outcomes of the SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm alone was 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77). The combination of SCORE2-Diabetes and CAVI, both in the continuous value and risk groups, did not improve discrimination (C-index 0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.77 and 0.68, 95% CI 0.64-0.74, respectively). Adding the CAVI to the SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm did not improve individual risk stratification in patients with diabetes.

Extended Genotyping to Stratify the Risk of CIN2+ in Women with Persistent HPV Infection, Negative Cytology and Type 3 Transformation Zone.

In a multicenter retrospective cohort study, we enrolled women with negative cytology and TZ3 among the 213 women referred for colposcopy for persistent HPV. The average age of the women was 53 years; in particular, 83% were postmenopausal women. In the presence of a TZ3, the entire transformation zone cannot be explored, making colposcopy and targeted biopsy useless and inadequate, with great risks of underdiagnosis or missed diagnosis. Women with TZ3 underwent diagnostic LEEP to ensure correct diagnoses. The study highlighted 19% (16/84) of CIN2+ lesions, a higher frequency of non-HPV 16/18 genotypes (76.2%), and 50% of CIN2+ lesions being due to non-HPV 16/18 genotypes. Furthermore, more than half of the women (80.9%) had normal histopathological results in the LEEP sample. Women with viral persistence, negative cytology, and TZ3 have a 19% risk of CIN2+; genotyping helps stratify risk, but extensive genotyping is necessary instead of partial genotyping (16/18), referring to a population of women over 50 years old in which the prevalence of genotypes 16,18 decreases and the prevalence of other genotypes increases; diagnostic LEEP is excessive (only 16 cases of CIN2+ out of 48 cases treated), even though 83% of women had viral clearance after LEEP; p16/Ki67 double staining could be a potential risk marker, which would only highlight women at risk of CIN2+ to undergo LEEP. To individualize the diagnostic workup and treatment and minimize the risk of under diagnosis and overtreatment, future studies should explore the use of extended genotyping and new biomarkers for individual risk stratification.

Establishing subdivisions of M1 stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on decision tree classification: A multicenter retrospective study

ObjectivesTo meet the demand for personalized treatment, effective stratification of patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) is essential. Hence, our study aimed to establish an M1 subdivision for prognostic prediction and treatment planning in patients with mNPC. Materials and methodsThis study included 1239 patients with mNPC from three medical centers divided into the synchronous mNPC cohort (smNPC, n = 556) to establish an M1 stage subdivision and the metachronous mNPC cohort (mmNPC, n = 683) to validate this subdivision. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses identified covariates for the decision-tree model, proposing an M1 subdivision. Model performance was evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, Harrell’s concordance index, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses. ResultsThe proposed M1 subdivisions were M1a (≤5 metastatic lesions), M1b (>5 metastatic lesions + absent liver metastases), and M1c (>5 metastatic lesions + existing liver metastases) with median OS of 34, 22, and 13 months, respectively (p < 0.001). This M1 subdivision demonstrated superior discrimination (C-index = 0.698; 3-year AUC = 0.707) and clinical utility over those of existing staging systems. Calibration curves exhibited satisfactory agreement between predictions and actual observations. Internal and mmNPC cohort validation confirmed the robustness. Survival benefits from local metastatic treatment were observed in M1a, while immunotherapy improved survival in patients with M1b and M1c disease. ConclusionThis novel M1 staging strategy provides a refined approach for prognostic prediction and treatment planning in patients with mNPC, emphasizing the potential benefits of local and immunotherapeutic interventions based on individualized risk stratification.

Robustness and classification capabilities of MRI radiomic features in identifying carotid plaque vulnerability.

To assess how radiomic features may be combined with plaque morphological and compositional features identified by multi-contrast MRI to improve upon conventional risk assessment models in determining culprit carotid artery lesions. Fifty-five patients (mean age: 62.6; 35 males) with bilateral carotid stenosis who experienced transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke were included from the CARE-II multi-centre carotid imaging trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02017756). They underwent MRI within 2 weeks of the event. Classification capability in distinguishing culprit lesions was assessed by machine learning. Repeatability and reproducibility of the results were investigated by assessing the robustness of the radiomic features. Radiomics combined with a relatively conventional plaque morphological and compositional metric-based model provided incremental value over a conventional model alone (area under curve [AUC], 0.819 ± 0.002 vs 0.689 ± 0.019, respectively, P = .014). The radiomic model alone also provided value over the conventional model (AUC, 0.805 ± 0.003 vs 0.689 ± 0.019, respectively, P = .031). T2-weighted imaging-based radiomic features had consistently higher robustness and classification capabilities compared with T1-weighted images. Higher-dimensional radiomic features outperformed first-order features. Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix, Grey Level Dependence Matrix, and Grey Level Size Zone Matrix sub-types were particularly useful in identifying textures which could detect vulnerable lesions. The combination of MRI-based radiomic features and lesion morphological and compositional parameters provided added value to the reference-standard risk assessment for carotid atherosclerosis. This may improve future risk stratification for individuals at risk of major adverse ischaemic cerebrovascular events. The clinical relevance of this work is that it addresses the need for a more comprehensive method of risk assessment for patients at risk of ischaemic stroke, beyond conventional stenosis measurement. This paper shows that in the case of carotid stroke, high-dimensional radiomics features can improve classification capabilities compared with stenosis measurement alone.

Outcomes of different perioperative management strategies of patients on chronic anticoagulation in elective total hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic review.

There are currently different management guidelines for patients undergoing elective total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that are on long-term anticoagulation. The timing of discontinuation and restarting the anticoagulation is challenging during the postoperative care, which often involves general practitioners and physiotherapists. The systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines and included 3 databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science Core Collection. It was registered in the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PROSPERO) under the registration number: CRD42023408906. The risk of bias assessment was performed using the Methodological index for non-randomized studies (MINORS) criteria. Six retrospective studies involving 727 patients with therapeutic anticoagulation (1,540 controls) for elective THA, TKA and revision arthroplasty have been included. The follow-up ranged from 30 days to 1 year postoperatively. All studies evaluated outcomes of warfarin therapeutic anticoagulation versus prophylactic dosages of one or more of the following: warfarin, aspirin, low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) and unfractionated low-dose heparin (UFH). One study did not discontinue therapeutic anticoagulation. Two studies reported no significant differences in complications between groups, whilst 3 studies had significantly higher rates of superficial wound infections, revision surgeries, postoperative haematomas, and prosthetic joint infections (PJI). Different anticoagulation-related perioperative management strategies achieve different outcomes following elective arthroplasty in patients with therapeutic chronic anticoagulation. There is contradictory evidence regarding the need for the discontinuation of therapeutic warfarin. Retrospective data showed that individual risk stratification with multi-modal prophylaxis resulted in minimal complications. Systematic Review of Level III studies.

Reframing prediabetes: A call for better risk stratification and intervention.

Prediabetes is an intermediate state of glucose homeostasis whereby plasma glucose concentrations are above normal but below the threshold of diagnosis for diabetes. Over the last several decades, criteria for prediabetes have changed as the cut points for normal glucose concentration and diagnosis of diabetes have shifted. Global consensus does not exist for prediabetes criteria; as a result, the clinical course and risk for type 2 diabetes vary. At present, we can identify individuals with prediabetes based on three glycemic tests (hemoglobin A1c, fasting plasma glucose, and 2-h plasma glucose during an oral glucose tolerance test). The majority of individuals diagnosed with prediabetes meet only one of these criteria. Meeting one, two, or all glycemic criteria changesrisk for type 2 diabetes, but this information is not widely known and does not currently guide intervention strategies for individuals with prediabetes. This review summarizes current epidemiology, prognosis, and intervention strategies for individuals diagnosed with prediabetes and suggests a call for more precise risk stratification of individuals with prediabetes as elevated (one prediabetes criterion), high risk (two prediabetes criteria), and very high risk (three prediabetes criteria). In addition, the roles of oral glucose tolerance testing and continuous glucose monitoring in the diagnostic criteria for prediabetes need reassessment. Finally, we must reframe our goals for prediabetes and prioritize intensive interventions for those at high and very high risk for type 2 diabetes.

High Circulating Dipeptidyl Peptidase 3 Predicts Mortality and Need for Organ Support in Cardiogenic Shock: An Ancillary Analysis of the ACCOST-HH Trial

BackgroundCardiogenic shock (CS) is burdened with high mortality. Efforts to improve outcome are hampered by the difficulty of individual risk stratification and the lack of targetable pathways. Previous studies demonstrated that elevated circulating dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (cDPP3) is an early predictor of short-term outcome in CS, mostly of ischemic origin. Our objective was to investigate the association between cDPP3 and short-term outcomes in a diverse population of patients with CS. Methods and ResultscDPP3 was measured at baseline and after 72 hours in the AdreCizumab against plaCebO in SubjecTs witH cardiogenic sHock (ACCOST-HH) trial. The association of cDPP3 with 30-day mortality and need for organ support was assessed. Median cDPP3 concentration at baseline was 43.2 ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.2–74.0 ng/mL) and 77 of the 150 patients (52%) had high cDPP3 over the predefined cutoff of 40 ng/mL. Elevated cDPP3 was associated with higher 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0–2.9), fewer days alive without cardiovascular support (aHR, 3 days [95% CI, 0–24 days] vs aHR, 21 days [95% CI, 5–26 days]; P < .0001) and a greater need for renal replacement therapy (56% vs 22%; P < .0001) and mechanical ventilation (90 vs 74%; P = .04). Patients with a sustained high cDPP3 had a poor prognosis (reference group). In contrast, patients with an initially high but decreasing cDPP3 at 72 hours had markedly lower 30-day mortality (aHR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.084–0.34), comparable with patients with a sustained low cDPP3 (aHR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.12–0.41). The need for organ support was markedly decreased in subpopulations with sustained low or decreasing cDPP3. ConclusionsThe present study confirms the prognostic value of cDPP3 in a contemporary population of patients with CS.

Outcome and microbiological findings of patients with cardiac implantable electronic device infection.

Infections associated with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) are a multifactorial disease that leads to increased morbidity and mortality. The aim was to analyze patient-, disease- and treatment-related characteristics including microbiological and bacterial spectrum according to survival status and to identify risk factors for 1- and 3-year mortality in patients with local and systemic CIED infection. In a retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from patients with CIED-related local or systemic infection undergoing successful transvenous lead extraction (TLE). Survival status as well as incidence and cause of rehospitalization were recorded. Microbiology and antibiotics used as first-line therapy were compared according to mortality. Independent risk factors for 1- and 3-year mortality were determined. Data from 243 Patients were analyzed. In-hospital mortality was 2.5%. Mortality rates at 30days, 1- and 3years were 4.1%, 18.1% and 30%, respectively. Seventy-four (30.5%) patients had systemic bacterial infection. Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality included age (OR 1.05 [1.01-1.10], p = 0.014), NT-proBNP at admission (OR 4.18 [1.81-9.65], p = 0.001), new onset or worsened tricuspid regurgitation after TLE (OR 6.04 [1.58-23.02], p = 0.009), and systemic infection (OR 2.76 [1.08-7.03], p = 0.034), whereas systemic infection was no longer an independent risk factor for 3-year mortality. Staphylococcus aureus was found in 18.1% of patients who survived and in 25% of those who died, p = 0.092. There was a high proportion of methicillin-resistant strains among coagulase-negative staphylococci (16.5%) compared to Staphylococcus aureus (1.2%). Staphylococci are the most common causative germs of CIED-infection with coagulase-negative staphylococci showing higher resistance rates to antibiotics. The independent risk factors for increased long-term mortality could contribute to individual risk stratification and well-founded treatment decisions in clinical routine. Especially the role of tricuspid regurgitation as a complication after TLE should be investigated in future studies.

Predicting the risk of 1-year mortality among patients hospitalized for acute heart failure in China

ObjectivesWe aimed to develop and validate a model to predict 1-year mortality risk among patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF), build a risk score and interpret its application in clinical decision making. MethodsBy using data from China Patient-Centred Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Prospective Heart Failure Study, which prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized for AHF in 52 hospitals across 20 provinces, we used multivariate Cox proportional hazard model to develop and validate a model to predict 1-year mortality. ResultsThere were 4875 patients included in the study, 857 (17.58%) of them died within 1-year following discharge of index hospitalization. 13 predictors were selected to establish the prediction model, including age, medical history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and hypertension, systolic blood pressure, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-12 score, ACEI/ARB at discharge, discharge symptom, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T, serum creatine, albumin, blood urea nitrogen and highly sensitive C-reactive protein. The model showed a high performance on discrimination (C-index was 0.759 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.739, 0.778) in development cohort and 0.761 (95% CI: 0.731, 0.791) in validation cohort), accuracy, calibration, and outperformed than several existed risk scores. A point-based risk score was built to stratify low- (0-12), intermediate- (13-16) and high-risk group (≥17) among patients. ConclusionsA prediction model using readily available predictors was developed and internal validated to predict 1-year mortality risk among patients hospitalized for AHF. It may serve as a useful tool for individual risk stratification and informing decision making to improve clinical care.

Plasma proteins and persistent post-surgical pelvic pain among adolescents and young adults with endometriosis

Non-invasive biomarkers that predict surgical treatment response would inform personalized treatments and provide insight into potential biological pathways underlying endometriosis-associated pain and symptom progression. Thus, we evaluated plasma proteins in relation to persistence of pelvic pain following laparoscopic surgery in predominantly adolescents and young adults with endometriosis using a multiplex aptamer-based proteomics biomarker discovery platform. We conducted a prospective analysis including 142 participants with laparoscopically- confirmed endometriosis from the Women's Health Study: From Adolescence to Adulthood (A2A) observational longitudinal cohort with study enrollment from 2012-2018. Biologic samples and patient data were collected with modified World Endometriosis Research Foundation Endometriosis Phenome and Biobanking Harmonization Project (EPHect) tools. In blood collected before laparoscopic ablation or excision of endometriosis, we simultaneously measured 1,305 plasma protein levels including markers for immunity, angiogenesis and inflammation using SomaScan. Worsening or persistent post-surgical pelvic pain was defined as having newly developed, persistent (i.e., stable), or worsening severity, frequency, or persistent life-interference of dysmenorrhea or acyclic pelvic pain at one-year post-surgery compared to pre-surgery. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression adjusted for age, body mass index, and fasting status and hormone use at blood draw. We applied Ingenuity Pathway Analysis and STRING analysis to identify pathophysiologic pathways and protein interactions. Median age at blood draw was 17 years (interquartile range 15-19), and most participants were white race (90%). All had superficial peritoneal lesions only and were treated by excision or ablation. One-year post-surgery, pelvic pain worsened or persisted for 76 (54%) of these participants with endometriosis, while pelvic pain improved for 66 (46%). We identified 83 proteins associated with worsening or persistent pelvic pain one-year post-surgery (nominal p<0.05). Compared to those with improved pelvic pain one year post-surgery, those with worsening or persistent pelvic pain had higher plasma levels of CD63 antigen (OR=2.98, 95% CI:1.44-6.19) and CD47 (OR=2.68, 95%CI=1.28-5.61), but lower levels of Sonic Hedgehog protein (SHH; OR=0.55, 95%CI=0.36-0.84) in pre-surgical blood. Pathways related to cell migration were upregulated and pathways related to angiogenesis were downregulated in those with worsening/persistent post-surgical pelvic pain compared to those with improved pain. When we examined change in proteins levels from pre- to post-surgery and its subsequent risk of worsening/persistent post-surgical pain at one-year follow-up, we observed increasing levels of SHH from pre- to post-surgery was associated with four-fold increase in risk of post-surgical pain (OR quartile 4 vs. 1=3.86, 1.04-14.33). Using an aptamer-based proteomics platform, we identified plasma proteins and pathways associated with worsening or persistent pelvic pain post-surgical treatment of endometriosis among adolescents and young adults that may aid in risk stratification of individuals with endometriosis.

Applying a genetic risk score model to enhance prediction of future multiple sclerosis diagnosis at first presentation with optic neuritis

Optic neuritis (ON) is associated with numerous immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, but 50% patients are ultimately diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). Differentiating MS-ON from non-MS-ON acutely is challenging but important; non-MS ON often requires urgent immunosuppression to preserve vision. Using data from the United Kingdom Biobank we showed that combining an MS-genetic risk score (GRS) with demographic risk factors (age, sex) significantly improved MS prediction in undifferentiated ON; one standard deviation of MS-GRS increased the Hazard of MS 1.3-fold (95% confidence interval 1.07–1.55, P < 0.01). Participants stratified into quartiles of predicted risk developed incident MS at rates varying from 4% (95%CI 0.5–7%, lowest risk quartile) to 41% (95%CI 33–49%, highest risk quartile). The model replicated across two cohorts (Geisinger, USA, and FinnGen, Finland). This study indicates that a combined model might enhance individual MS risk stratification, paving the way for precision-based ON treatment and earlier MS disease-modifying therapy.

Genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomization analyses provide insights into the causes of early-onset colorectal cancer

The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC; diagnosed <50 years of age) is rising globally; however, the causes underlying this trend are largely unknown. CRC has strong genetic and environmental determinants, yet common genetic variants and causal modifiable risk factors underlying EOCRC are unknown. We conducted the first EOCRC-specific genome-wide association study (GWAS) and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to explore germline genetic and causal modifiable risk factors associated with EOCRC. We conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of 6176 EOCRC cases and 65 829 controls from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the UK Biobank. We then used the EOCRC GWAS to investigate 28 modifiable risk factors using two-sample MR. We found two novel risk loci for EOCRC at 1p34.1 and 4p15.33, which were not previously associated with CRC risk. We identified a deleterious coding variant (rs36053993, G396D) at polyposis-associated DNA repair gene MUTYH (odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.47-2.22) but show that most of the common genetic susceptibility was from noncoding signals enriched in epigenetic markers present in gastrointestinal tract cells. We identified new EOCRC-susceptibility genes, and in addition to pathways such as transforming growth factor (TGF) β, suppressor of Mothers Against Decapentaplegic (SMAD), bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) and phosphatidylinositol kinase (PI3K) signaling, our study highlights a role for insulin signaling and immune/infection-related pathways in EOCRC. In our MR analyses, we found novel evidence of probable causal associations for higher levels of body size and metabolic factors-such as body fat percentage, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, basal metabolic rate, and fasting insulin-higher alcohol drinking, and lower education attainment with increased EOCRC risk. Our novel findings indicate inherited susceptibility to EOCRC and suggest modifiable lifestyle and metabolic targets that could also be used to risk-stratify individuals for personalized screening strategies or other interventions.

Neurodevelopmental Outcomes for Individuals With Congenital Heart Disease: Updates in Neuroprotection, Risk-Stratification, Evaluation, and Management: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Over the past decade, new research has advanced scientific knowledge of neurodevelopmental trajectories, factors that increase neurodevelopmental risk, and neuroprotective strategies for individuals with congenital heart disease. In addition, best practices for evaluation and management of developmental delays and disorders in this high-risk patient population have been formulated based on literature review and expert consensus. This American Heart Association scientific statement serves as an update to the 2012 statement on the evaluation and management of neurodevelopmental outcomes in children with congenital heart disease. It includes revised risk categories for developmental delay or disorder and an updated list of factors that increase neurodevelopmental risk in individuals with congenital heart disease according to current evidence, including genetic predisposition, fetal and perinatal factors, surgical and perioperative factors, socioeconomic disadvantage, and parental psychological distress. It also includes an updated algorithm for referral, evaluation, and management of individuals at high risk. Risk stratification of individuals with congenital heart disease with the updated categories and risk factors will identify a large and growing population of survivors at high risk for developmental delay or disorder and associated impacts across the life span. Critical next steps must include efforts to prevent and mitigate developmental delays and disorders. The goal of this scientific statement is to inform health care professionals caring for patients with congenital heart disease and other key stakeholders about the current state of knowledge of neurodevelopmental outcomes for individuals with congenital heart disease and best practices for neuroprotection, risk stratification, evaluation, and management.