Risk Scenarios Research Articles

Influence of ESG on corporate debt default risk: An analysis of the dual risk scenarios

In the context of sustainable development and high-quality corporate growth, this study examines the impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance on corporate debt default risk among Chinese A-share listed corporates. It explores the mechanisms by which ESG performance influences debt risk, including diversification of funding sources, optimized capital utilization, and improved market supply–demand dynamics. The mitigating effect of ESG on debt risk is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises, large corporations, and corporations with robust internal controls, especially under conditions of low marketization and adverse macroeconomic circumstances. Moreover, in light of the global emphasis on climate risks, this study assesses their significant influence on debt default risk, particularly through the environmental aspect of ESG. Innovatively, this study incorporates dual climate risk scenarios to comprehensively analyze the interaction between ESG performance and debt default risk. Findings indicate that ESG performance significantly lowers debt risk in corporates facing higher internal climate challenges, while the effects on external supply chain climate risks are less evident. These insights contribute to the theoretical understanding of ESG and financial risk management and provide practical strategies for corporates pursuing sustainability in an unstable climatic environment.

A quantitative analysis of biosafety and biosecurity using attack trees in low‐to‐moderate risk scenarios: Evidence from iGEM

AbstractAs synthetic biology is extensively applied in numerous frontier disciplines, the biosafety and biosecurity concerns with designing and constructing novel biological parts, devices, and systems have inevitably come to the forefront due to potential misuse, abuse, and environmental risks from unintended exposure or potential ecological impacts. The International Genetically Engineered Machine (iGEM) competition often serves as the inception of many synthetic biologists’ research careers and plays a pivotal role in the secure progression of the entire synthetic biology field. Even with iGEM's emphasis on biosafety and biosecurity, continuous risk assessment is crucial due to the potential for unforeseen consequences and the relative inexperience of many participants. In this study, possible risk points for the iGEM projects in 2022 were extracted. An attack tree that captures potential risks and threats from experimental procedures, ethical issues, and hardware safety for each iGEM‐based attack scenario is constructed. It is found that most of the attack scenarios are related to experimental procedures. The relative likelihood of each scenario is then determined by using an established assessment framework. This research expands the traditionally qualitative analysis of risk society theory, reveals the risk formation in the synthetic biology team, and provides practical implications.

Addressing Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Integration for Western Australia’s Mining Sector: A Robust Optimization Approach

The mining industry is a key contributor to Western Australia’s economy, with over 130 mining operations that produce critical minerals such as iron ore, gold, and lithium. Ensuring a reliable and continuous energy supply is vital for these operations. This paper addresses the challenges and opportunities of integrating renewable energy sources into isolated power systems, particularly under uncertainties associated with renewable energy generation and demand. A robust optimization approach is developed to model a multi-source hybrid energy system that considers risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking strategies. These strategies address power demand and renewable energy supply uncertainties, ensuring system reliability under various risk scenarios. The optimization framework, formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem and implemented in Python using the Gurobi Optimizer, integrates renewable energy sources such as wind turbines, photovoltaic arrays, and demand response programs alongside traditional diesel generators, boilers, combined heat and power units, and water desalination. The model ensures reliable access to electricity, heat, and water while minimizing operational costs and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis further examines the impact of uncertainty margins and the value of a lost load on the total system cost, providing insights into how different risk strategies affect system performance and cost-efficiency. The results are validated through three case studies demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach in enhancing the resilience and sustainability of isolated power systems in the mining sector. Significant improvements in reliability, scalability, and economic performance are observed, with the sensitivity analysis highlighting the critical trade-offs between cost and reliability under varying uncertainty conditions.

Toward Climate Resilient Asphalt Binder Selection in Canada

Climate change and extreme weather events present a fundamental challenge to pavement engineering and planning practice, given that transportation infrastructure has traditionally been planned and designed using historical climate data under the implicit assumption that climate is stationary and future conditions will resemble past ones. Transportation professionals should consider future risks scenarios in road design, material selection and system operations. This will be challenging given the inherent uncertainties in any climate projections. However, changes might be needed since transportation professionals are expected to deliver cost-effective and climate-resilient transportation infrastructure. The material selection plays an important role in the durability of flexible roads; therefore, it is important to consider the whole road design life cycle in terms of climate change and extreme weather events impact on asphalt selection as well as to consider different traffic speeds. This led to the development of the NRC Climate Adaptation and Asphalt Selection Tool (CAAST).

Identifying the Bundle/Care Development Process in Clinical Risk Management: A Systematic Review.

A bundle is a set of three to five evidence-based interventions designed to improve the quality and outcomes of care processes. Numerous international studies have evaluated the effectiveness of Bundles/Care Bundles (BCB) in reducing morbidity and mortality. The Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) has defined the concept of a bundle but has not outlined the development process. To identify the BCB development process in clinical risk scenarios from September 2005 to September 2023. A systematic review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines to identify studies describing the BCB development process in managing clinical risk situations. The databases consulted included PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL, along with manual searches on institutional websites. Relevant studies concerning the BCB development process were included. A total of 1372 studies were retrieved, of which 16 were included. Duplicates were removed, and titles and abstracts were analyzed. The identified methods for BCB development include IHI guidelines, expert opinions, international guidelines, and flowcharts. The most common BCBs relate to the prevention of ventilator-associated pneumonia, surgical site infections, catheter-associated infections, and sepsis. This study has identified the development processes of Care Bundles (BCBs) in clinical risk scenarios, highlighting how these tools facilitate compliance monitoring among members of the healthcare team. The review has revealed effective methods for designing evidence-based BCBs. However, the scarcity of studies on the methodology for developing BCBs is a limitation, suggesting the need for further research. In Italy, there is a growing interest in the use of care packages. It is essential to encourage research that optimizes the effectiveness of intervention strategies.

Bio-organic substitution in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L) cultivation: Optimum strategy to lower carbon footprint and boost net ecosystem economic benefit

The partial substitution of organic manure for chemical nitrogen fertilizers, known as organic substitution, is widely regarded as a cleaner and more sustainable production strategy. However, few studies have quantified greenhouse gas emissions, product income and net ecosystem economic benefit (NEEB) using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, particularly for typical tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) production. Here, we quantified the yield and quality of a typical tobacco production in Qujing, Yunnan, China, through field experiments and calculated its carbon footprint and NEEB using the LCA approach. Four organic substitution strategies were established with equal nitrogen inputs, including synthesized chemical fertilizer (SN), farmyard organic manure (NF), commercial organic manure (NC), and bio-organic (Trichoderma viride Pers.) manure (NT), each substituting 15% of synthesized nitrogen fertilizer. Compared to the SN strategy, the NT strategy significantly increased yield and income by 10.3% and 9.6%, respectively. In contrast, the NF strategy significantly reduced income, while the NC strategy showed no significant difference. Both the NC and NT strategies significantly reduced N2O cumulative emissions (by 15.9% and 8.0%, respectively), increased δSOC (by 38.4% and 15.0%, respectively), and decreased carbon footprint compared to the SN strategy. However, the NF strategy significantly increased the income-scaled carbon footprint, even though it also notably reduced N2O cumulative emissions (by 22.6%) and increased δSOC (by 7.9%). The NT strategy achieved a win-win scenario of low environmental risk and high economic returns of tobacco production with significantly increased NEEB (by 10.6%) compared to the SN strategy (37.60 × 103 CNY yr−1). This suggests that the bio-organic Trichoderma manure substituting 15% synthesized nitrogen fertilizer is the best organic substitution strategy for sustainable tobacco production.

Tail risk spillover network among green bond, energy and agricultural markets under extreme weather scenarios

This paper explores the tail risk spillover patterns among eight US green bond, energy, and agricultural commodity markets conditional on different extreme weather conditions, using a proposed conditional tail Diebold Yilmaz spillover network. The results of the empirical analysis, conducted using data from 2013 to 2023, indicates that, firstly, as weather conditions transit from normal to extreme risk state, the complexity and magnitude of tail risk spillovers increase, particularly affecting the relationships between different markets and sectors. Under most extreme weather risk scenarios, the energy market predominantly acts as a risk transmitter. Conversely, the agricultural market, more often emerges as a risk receiver. Secondly, of all the extreme weather scenarios considered, the US commodity markets achieve lowest in total risk spillover (TRS) in the extreme snow weather scenarios and this is the only case that is almost no more than the unconditional weather scenario over the sample period. Finally, the tail returns of most US commodity markets are more sensitive to tail movements in extreme total precipitation and extreme runoff weather conditions.

Anti-Pastoral and the Prophetic Mode in Moddi’s Climate Songs

This article explores aspects of apocalypse and pastoral in the climate themed song lyrics of Norwegian indie folk artist Moddi. Through close listening and contextualizing of the songs “Noens ark” (“Someone’s ark”, 2013) and “En sang om fly” (“A song about planes”, 2013), apocalypse and pastoral emerge as key motifs. These are navigated in an exploration of a conflicted Norwegian response to global warming. The songs express critique of unrelenting pursuits of economic growth and personal consumption even as the future imposes itself on the present. In two different ways, elements of indie folk music are tailored to express an ontologically unsettling encounter with a global environmental risk scenario. “Noens ark” employs forceful instrumentation and polyrhythms to evoke a sense of alarm and urgency called for by the projection of future disaster. “En sang om fly” is a soft composition projecting nostalgia for the material conditions of the present. The desire for these conditions ultimately locks the singer in a cycle of repetition that destabilizes the very conditions he desires. The nuances afforded by this expression in musical performance allows song lyrics to sustain contradictory attitudes towards globalization. In their pursuit of these contradictions, Moddi’s climate songs can be seen as part of an anti-pastoral tradition. Features of musical genre and a prophetic lyric mode are employed to evoke and subvert a pastoral response to apocalypticism. By musically sustaining contradictions between pastoral and apocalypse, Moddi’s songs reflect a conflict between Norwegian identity and a global cultural imaginary in the face of global warming.

Evaluation of ground motion models for Northern Vietnam based on ground motion records of the 2020 Mw5.0 Moc-Chau earthquake sequence

It is challenging to select ground motion models (GMMs) for seismic hazard assessments for a region with sparse recorded data. In this study, data on the 2020 Mw5 Moc-Chau earthquake and its aftershocks were used to select an appropriate GMM for northern Vietnam (NVN). The 204 strong motion records were collected from 32 seismic stations and then used to compare eleven non-Vietnamese and two simplified Vietnamese local GMMs to assess their model prediction efficiencies. Among all the candidates, the global NGA-West2 GMMs performed the best fit with the data. Our analyses revealed the possibility of damage resulting from shaking in the Hanoi metropolitan area caused by recognized earthquake sources in NVN. In our examination of total residuals of differences between the GMM predictions and observed data, the average standard deviation from ASK14 was slightly higher than the limit accepted for modern seismic hazard assessments. ASK14 was further adjusted by the spatially varying coefficients that were derived from observations ground motion of this event. The adjusted ASK14 was used to evaluate seismic risk scenarios of large earthquakes in NVN and compared with the structures’ design spectra of the Hanoi area. To increase the prediction efficiency, additional local data are required to develop a region-specific GMM for NVN. We suggest that GMM be developed in the near future by regionalizing the ASK14 GMM according to additional local data further collected from existing broadband seismic observations and new accumulating continuous recording data from Vietnam’s broadband seismic networks.

Assessment of coastal flood risk scenarios on infrastructure in the Keta municipality in Ghana using a GIS approach

Coastal flooding and erosion, caused by climate change-induced sea level rise, pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas worldwide. The African continent, including Ghana, has experienced severe impacts from these hazards, affecting the socio-economic development of coastal communities. This research focuses on the Keta municipality in Ghana. The Keta municipality is highly vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion due to its low elevation and the construction of the Akosombo hydroelectric dam. This research aims to predict the impact of coastal flooding on infrastructure in the Keta municipality using different flood scenarios. It also fills the existing knowledge gap in understanding how future flood risk can impact on critical infrastructure and consequently on other vital socio-economic sectors in the coastal community of Keta. The study utilizes a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach, combining various datasets, including topographic data, administrative shapefiles, field survey points, and infrastructure data. Two flood scenarios were considered to assess areas at risk: a 2.5-m sea level flood scenario representing potential climate change events and a worst-case 5-m sea level flood scenario. The findings reveal that 3.3 km2 (9 %) of coastal land area, 3.9 km of roads, and 69 structures are at risk under a 2.5m sea level rise scenario, increasing to 7.1 km2 (19.4 %), 13.6 km of roads, and 667 structures under a 5m scenario. The study highlights the urgency of addressing these risks to protect coastal communities' socio-economic development and livelihoods. Recommendations include implementing appropriate coastal management strategies, improving infrastructure resilience, and promoting sustainable land-use practices. By understanding and addressing the future impact of coastal flooding, decision-makers can mitigate climate change's adverse effects on coastal areas and ensure the region's long-term sustainability.

Presentación del Volumen 5 Número 3 - Octubre 2024 - enero 2025

Latest issue of Volume 5 of the journal, which highlights aspects of national security, reaffirming that in Peru there are multiple dimensions of the national reality in which risk scenarios develop. The national peculiarity lies in the increase of problems –in the internal sphere– that affect national security and development, which leads to maintaining the diversity of studies and research that highlight the interdependence of security and development, but does not neglect the analysis of the advance of war, as the case of the use of drones, mercenaries and nuclear plants in the conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. In the anniversary month of CAEN-EPG, its important role in benefiting proposals to optimize our national security, overcoming the adversaries of the Homeland, is highlighted.

One health and social research in disease ecology: A social contextual study of vector-borne diseases in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Although disease ecology recognizes the multiplicity of factors involved in the (re)emergence of vector-borne diseases (VBD), it is necessary to strengthen attention to the social context and the social determinants of health. It is essential to integrate a sociocultural approach to health into the biological analysis of VBD ecology. To implement a coherent One Health approach in the prevention and control of VBD, it is pivotal to first understand the social and ecological interactions of the local context. Between October 2021 and June 2022, a social contextual study was made through surveys, semi-structured interviews and participatory activities in 12 localities with diverse ecological, economic and socio-cultural contexts in the Yucatan Peninsula. Through the perceptions of the populations on health and VBD, specifically mosquitoes, we gained knowledge on socio-cultural dynamics that influence people's relationship with pathogens. Local knowledge, management, and control of vectors; interactions with domestic and wild animals; and health-landscape relationship, were identified as factors that determine health-disease processes. This study contributed to a better understanding of local contexts and therefore, to the design of socially pertinent strategies for the reduction of vector-borne diseases risk scenarios in the study sites with an integrated approach.

Developing Methods for Assessing the Impact of Digital Innovations on the Economic Efficiency of Enterprises: Methodology for Measuring ROI of Digital Projects

This study aims to develop methodologies for assessing the return on investment (ROI) of digital projects, crucial for understanding the economic impact of digital innovations on enterprises. Traditional ROI metrics often fail to capture the comprehensive value generated by digital projects. The proposed integrative framework employs advanced analytical methods, including cost-benefit analysis, real options analysis, and predictive analytics, to evaluate both tangible and intangible benefits. It incorporates dynamic risk management and scenario planning to address uncertainties and future challenges. Continuous feedback and iterative improvements ensure the framework's accuracy and relevance, enabling enterprises to optimize economic efficiency and strategic decision-making. This holistic approach offers an understanding of the multifaceted value of digital innovations.

Burj Rashid: a tale of two tides – rising waters and changing traditions

PurposeThis paper delves into the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and practices of Burj Rashid, an ancient historical city on Egypt’s northern coast, which stands at the meeting point of the Nile’s western branch and the Mediterranean Sea. Burj Rashid boasts a strategic location and rich natural resources and has a long history of relationships between land, people, river, sea and climate change, serving as a model for residents’ adaptation to their ever-changing surroundings.Design/methodology/approachClimate studies have exposed the village’s vulnerability to climate and topographical hazards such as rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, decreasing precipitation, encroaching seas due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and high soil salinization. These factors pose a high risk of water scarcity, crop failure in the medium term, potential famine in the long term and declining fish populations, threatening fishing communities. To address these challenges, the Net Zero: Heritage for Climate Action project - launched by the International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property (ICCROM) and the First Aid and Resilience for Culture in Times of Crisis program, funded by Swedish Postcode - proposes a research and development methodology through a platform that weaves together heritage knowledge and climate science. The Egyptian Heritage Rescue Foundation has implemented a platform in Burj Rashid as an innovative site to study risks, vulnerabilities and capacities.FindingsThe project will explore root causes, identify risk scenarios and establish a stakeholder map to guide the development of mitigation strategies and resilience-building measures.Originality/valueBy harnessing the wisdom of TEK and integrating it with scientific knowledge, the project paves the way for innovative climate change adaptation strategies that ensure the long-term sustainability of Burj Rashid’s unique cultural heritage.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Sustainable Development Goals Derived Gentrification Scale in the Context of the Pandemic

In the context of human development goals, gentrification has emerged as a significant and unpredictable phenomenon amid the ongoing health crisis, potentially impacting the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study aimed to analyze the theoretical framework of gentrification and its empirical indicators in the unique context of the pandemic, foreseeing potential risk scenarios. A cross-sectional, psychometric, and correlational study was conducted with 100 university students dedicated to the SDGs during the pandemic. The findings revealed the prevalence of two out of seven factors associated with poverty alleviation and institutional justice for peace. Given the observation of seven factors in the current literature, this study recommends expanding the indicators to enhance the variance percentage and aligning the theoretical model with empirical evidence. It underscores the pressing need for collaborative efforts in urban and sustainable development.

What do trees reveal about the sliding of the lateral moraine of the Belvedere Glacier (western Italian Alps)?

The debris-covered Belvedere Glacier is an iconic place for investigating glacier dynamics and geomorphological processes typical of high mountain environments. Moreover, being located in an area highly suited to tourism, glacial and geomorphological hazards can evolve into risk scenarios. Particular attention has been paid during this research to the surge-type event that occurred at the beginning of the 21st century, and to the recent sliding of a lateral moraine nearby the chairlift station. Tree sampling was performed (19 trees on the lateral moraine; 10 undisturbed trees), and the results were compared with morphometric measurements on orthophotos of different years. Besides sampling trunks, the six available exposed roots (13 samples) from a tree located along the sliding niche were sampled to identify the exposure time. Morphometric measurements of the touristic trail dislocation indicate a sliding rate of 1.87 m/y – 1.98 m/y (2018–2023), while the regression rate of the sliding niche is 1.70 m/y (2021–2023). The age of trees along the trench is variable (14–49 years), as is the signal of compression wood, enhancing differentially the passage of the surge wave and the subsequent glacier downwasting. The beginning of root exposure occurred between 2017 and 2019, before the effective evidence of large fractures in the ground. Moreover, the roots show traumatic resin ducts in the period between 2020 and 2022, confirming the tree disturbance. In conclusion, the investigated events are recorded differentially in the sampled trees, especially in roots, anticipating the actual commencement of ground failure. A multidisciplinary approach, including remote sensing, field survey, and dendrogeomorphological analysis is essential to define the dynamics of complex systems.

Holistic Information Security Management and Compliance Framework

The growing complexity of cybersecurity threats demands a robust framework that integrates various security domains, addressing the issue of disjointed security practices that fail to comply with evolving regulations. This paper introduces a novel information security management and compliance framework that integrates operational, technical, human, and physical security domains. The aim of this framework is to enable organizations to identify the requisite information security controls and legislative compliance needs effectively. Unlike traditional approaches, this framework systematically aligns with both current and emerging security legislation, including GDPR, NIS2 Directive, and the Artificial Intelligence Act, offering a unified approach to comprehensive security management. The experimental methodology involves evaluating the framework against five distinct risk scenarios to test its effectiveness and adaptability. Each scenario assesses the framework’s capability to manage and ensure compliance with specific security controls and regulations. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework not only meets compliance requirements across multiple security domains but also provides a scalable solution for adapting to new threats and regulations efficiently. These findings represent a significant step forward in holistic security management, indicating that organizations can enhance their security posture and legislative compliance simultaneously through this integrated framework.

Towards integrated multi-risk reduction strategies: A catalog of flood and earthquake risk mitigation measures at the building and neighborhood scales

The integration of risk reduction measures for earthquakes and floods is a promising concept in the field of multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. However, existing studies mostly discuss it conceptually, often missing a focus on decision-making. This paper introduces a novel approach by examining synergies and trade-offs between earthquake and flood risk reduction measures. The paper first conducts a detailed analysis of selected measures for these two hazards. It then explores how these individual risk mitigation measures can be strategically integrated at the building level to maximize synergies, potentially resulting in time and cost savings. Furthermore, it discusses the limitations of current decision-making procedures for single-hazard risk mitigation selection when applied to multi-hazard risk (MHR) scenarios. To address these challenges, the study proposes new decision variables to be incorporated into existing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks with the aim of facilitating strategic risk reduction prioritization for MHR scenarios, ensuring sustainability and community resilience. To aid implementation (i.e., the phase in which the measure would be selected and tested in a series of case study buildings), a catalog of analyzed risk reduction measures is developed and provided as Supplementary Material. In future developments, this catalog will facilitate the integration of these measures into decision-support tools for evidence-based multi-hazard disaster risk reduction.

The effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism on building systems: Field research applied in Pozzuoli

The contribution presents the results of field research aimed at assessing the effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism phenomena on a building system located in the historic centre of Pozzuoli (Italy). The study falls within the scope of building façade vulnerability analyses conducted by the authors to support the Public Administration in managing bradyseismic emergencies.Considering that the seismic-deformation phenomena connected to Bradyseism affect the performance and integrity of façade components, the research focused on studying its impact on the technical elements within the Technological Unit Classes of “Load-bearing Structure”, “Enclosure”, and “External Partition”, which directly project onto the external environment and collectively constitute the Building Envelope. The methodology for impact assessment was developed by correlating data acquired from a monitoring system installed on the façade of a surveyed building with characteristic parameters related to seismic events and soil deformations in a specific reference period. The analyses conducted excluded any significant impact of these seismic-deformation forcings on the building's Load-bearing Structure, both in terms of displacements and damage. On the other hand, significant impacts were found on the technical elements of the building envelope, which, due to their lower resistance and ductility, represent a constant hazard for the exposed urban system's safety, configuring a Building Risk scenario.

A seismic-risk-based bi-objective stochastic optimization framework for the pre-disaster allocation of earthquake search and rescue units

Accurately predicting earthquakes' time, location and size is nearly impossible with today’s technology. Severe earthquakes require prompt and effective mobilization of available resources, as the speed of intervention has a direct impact on the number of people rescued alive. This, in turn, calls for a strategic pre-disaster allocation of search and rescue (SAR) units, both teams and equipment, to make the deployment of resources as quick and equitable as possible. In this paper, a seismic risk-based framework is introduced that takes into account distance-based contingencies between cities. This framework is then integrated into a mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) problem for the allocation of SAR units under uncertainty. The two minimization objectives considered are the expected maximum deployment time of different SAR units and the expected mean absolute deviation of the fulfillment rates. We recover the best vulnerability-adjusted routes for each size-location scenario as input to the optimization model using the dynamic programming (DP) approach as part of the broader area of reinforcement learning (RL). The results of the hypothetical example indicate that the comprehensive model is feasible in various risk scenarios and can be used to make allocation-deployment decisions under uncertainty. The results of the sensitivity analysis verify that the model behaves reasonably against changes in selected parameters, namely the number of allowed facilities and weights of individual objectives. Under the assumption that the two objectives are equally important, the model achieves a total deviation of %3.5 from the objectives with an expected maximum dispatch time of 1.1327 hours and an expected mean absolute deviation of 0.01.