Risk-related Variables Research Articles

Dataset of an actual motor vehicle insurance portfolio

AbstractAdvanced analytics plays a vital role in enhancing various aspects of business operations within the insurance sector by providing valuable insights that drive informed decision-making, primarily through effective database utilization. However, open access databases in the insurance industry are exceedingly rare, as they are the basis of the business, encapsulating all the risk structure of the company. This makes it challenging for researchers and practitioners to access comprehensive insurance datasets for analysis and assessing new approaches. This paper introduces an extensive database specifically tailored for non-life motor insurance, containing 105,555 rows and encompassing a wide array of 30 variables. The dataset comprises important date-related information, such as effective date, date of birth of the insured, and renewal date, essential for policy management and risk assessment. Additionally, it includes relevant economic variables, such as premiums and claim costs, for assessments of products’ financial profitability. Moreover, the database features an array of risk-related variables, such as vehicle size, economic value, power, and weight, which significantly contribute to understanding risk dynamics. By leveraging the statistical analysis of this rich database, researchers could identify novel risk profiles, reveal variables that influence insured claims behaviour, and contribute to the advancement of educational and research initiatives in the dynamic fields of economics and actuarial sciences. The availability of this comprehensive database opens new opportunities for research and teaching and empowers insurance professionals to enhance their risk assessment and decision-making processes.

Effects of a 12-week intrinsic foot muscle strengthening training (STIFF) on gait in older adults: a parallel randomized controlled trial protocol

BackgroundFalling is highly prevalent among older adults and has serious impact. Age-induced mobility impairments, such as gait modifications, are strongly associated with increased fall risk. Among fall prevention interventions, those including exercises are most effective. However, there is an urgent need to further improve these kinds of interventions. Strengthening the plantar intrinsic foot muscles might benefit mobility in older adults, which may contribute to the reduction of fall risk. The aim of this paper is to provide a protocol to investigate the effect of a plantar intrinsic foot muscle strengthening training versus no training on gait and intrinsic foot muscle function in older adults who are involved in a functional exercise program.MethodsFor this assessor-blinded RCT, older adults (> 65 years) are recruited who are involved in a group-based functional exercise program. Eligibility criteria include: being able to ambulate 10 m barefoot without using a walking aid and reporting to have either fear of falling or experienced a fall in the previous 12 months or have difficulties with mobility, gait, or balance in daily life. Participants are randomly assigned to an intervention and a control group. The intervention group follows a 12-week plantar intrinsic foot muscle strengthening training. The training consists of isolated and functional foot exercises to be performed 5 times a week, each session lasting approximately 20 min. The training is supervised once a week and the intensity gradually increases based on the participant’s progression. Both groups keep a diary to report physical activities, fall incidents and movement related discomfort. The control condition is limited to keeping this diary. Data are collected at baseline and post-intervention. The trial outcomes are the between group differences in the mean change from baseline in maximum gait speed (primary outcome measure), capacity and strength of the plantar intrinsic foot muscles, foot and ankle biomechanics during gait, and various other fall risk-related variables. ANCOVA’s are used to analyze the trial outcomes.DiscussionThe results of this RCT will offer recommendations, related to plantar intrinsic foot muscle strengthening, to existing fall preventive exercise programs.Trial registrationThe trial is registered in the United States National Library of Medicine through ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05531136, 07/26/2022).

Circulating zinc levels and cardiometabolic risk-related variables in adults

Introduction. Altered serum zinc levels, lower and higher than values in healthy controls, have been observed in individuals affected by non-communicable chronic diseases. However, to date, studies describing potential determinants of zinc levels in general populations free of chronic diseases appear to be limited. Objective. To evaluate whether nutrient intake, biochemical and clinical measures, lifestyle, and family history of cardio-metabolic diseases are independently associated with zinc levels in apparently healthy individuals. Materials and methods. We evaluated 239 healthy subjects. Serum zinc was measured via flame atomic absorption spectrometry, and the remaining biochemical markers were assessed using enzymatic colorimetric methods. Standard techniques were employed to quantify waist circumference, height, and weight. Body fat was measured via bioimpedance, and blood pressure was measured using digital sphygmomanometers. We applied a survey to record the personal and family history of non-communicable chronic diseases, and nutrient intake was estimated using the 24-hour recall method. Results. Women had lower serum zinc levels than men. In multivariate analyzes, total fat intake (β = -0.15; standard error = 0.03; p < 0.001), plasma log-triglycerides (β = -10.18; standard error = 3.9; p = 0.010), and female gender (β = -6.81; standard error = 3.3; p = 0.043) were significant predictors for serum zinc levels. Zinc intake was not significantly related to serum zinc in univariate and multivariate analyses. Conclusions. Variables related to cardiometabolic risk, such as plasma triglyceride levels and total fat intake, were associated with serum zinc levels in individuals without a diagnosis of chronic or infectious/inflammatory diseases. Further studies are required to confirm our findings and to evaluate possible biological mechanisms for these relationships.

Ipsilateral tumor recurrence risk in women with ductal carcinoma in situ: application of the Van Nuys Prognostic Index and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram.

To apply the Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI) and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) nomogram to DCIS patients with known long-term outcomes. A retrospective review was performed of consecutive patients diagnosed with DCIS from 2007 to 2014. Included patients underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and were followed with imaging for at least five years. For each patient, the VNPI and MSKCC nomogram risk estimates were determined. In addition, variables used in both models were compared between women with and without recurrences using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and the Pearson's chi-squared test. Over the eight-year period, 456 women (average age 57 years, range 30-87) underwent BCS for DCIS. Thirty-one (6.8%) experienced an ipsilateral recurrence. The average VNPI scores were 7 (range 5-9) and 7 (range 4-10) for women with and without a recurrence (p = 0.14), respectively, with 4-6, 7-9, and 10-12 being the low, moderate, and high-risk groups, respectively. Per the MSKCC nomogram, the average five-year recurrence risks were 5% (range 1-12%) and 4% (range 1-38%) for women with and without a recurrence (p = 0.09), respectively. The recurrence risk-related variables were younger patient age, need for one or more re-excision surgeries, and use of endocrine therapy for 0 to less than five years after surgery. Ipsilateral tumor recurrence risk estimates based on the VNPI and MSKCC nomogram are similar between women with DCIS who did and did not have a recurrence, suggesting that more robust prognostic models are needed.

Prevalence and Predictors of Somatization in Peruvian Undergraduate Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a strong impact on mental health. Multiple studies report the alarming prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress-related conditions due to the lockdown measures. Nevertheless, somatization has been an overlooked topic in current literature despite its strong relationship with most mental health conditions. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of somatic symptoms and their associated factors in a sample of 3218 undergraduate students from Lima, Peru. A cross-sectional design was carried out. The prevalence of somatic symptoms was measured with the PHQ-15. As predictors of somatic symptom severity, we included psychopathological (depression, anxiety, and stress), psychological (perceived social support, resilience, satisfaction with life, and academic self-efficacy), and sociodemographic (e.g., age, sex, employment status, relationship status, daily hours of sleep) variables. A generalized linear model from a binomial family and a logit link function were applied based on a Factor Score Regression approach, with half of the sample presenting moderate-to-severe somatic symptoms. Anxiety was the strongest predictor of somatic symptom severity, followed by academic self-efficacy. Significant differences were found regarding sex, relationship status, daily hours of sleep and COVID-19 risk-related variables. In conclusion, interventions on reducing anxiety and promoting academic self-efficacy may have a stronger impact on somatic symptom severity and should focus on more vulnerable specific demographic groups such as females.

Risk Factors for Accidents and Close Calls in Junior Freeriders, Adolescent Alpine Skiers and Adult Freeriders-A Comparison.

Understanding factors associated with risk-taking behavior, accidents and close calls could enhance prevention strategies and thus contribute to preventing serious injury or death in the long term. The following study aims to assess these factors in junior freeride athletes in comparison with competitive alpine skiers of similar age and adult freeriders. A cross-sectional questionnaire design was used to assess risk-related variables and potential associated factors. Accident and close call involvement did not significantly differ between the groups (p &gt; 0.080). No significant relationships between gender and risk-related variables were found (|r| &lt; 0.26). Precautionary behavior was higher in freeride adults and freeride juniors compared to alpine skiers (p &lt; 0.001) and deliberate risk-taking was lower in freeride adults compared to junior freeriders and alpine skiers (p &lt; 0.001). Regression analyses revealed that the association between self-objectification and accidents was stronger in freeride juniors compared to alpine skiers of similar age and freeride adults (p &lt; 0.049). Although accidents and close calls were similar between groups, age seems to be an associated variable to deliberate risk-taking and precautionary behavior. The relationship between accidents and self-objectification in freeride juniors implicates a need for risk education in freeriders in the sensitive phase of adolescence beyond the mere presentation of environmental dangers.

Time to coronary angiography in a real-life cohort of NSTEACS patients: are guidelines too optimistic?

Abstract Background and purpose In 2020, new recommendations against routine use of pretreatment in NSTEACS have been established, especially if an early invasive strategy (within first 24 hours) is planned [1]. These recommendations are mainly based on evidence from clinical trials that have included short intervals of time to coronary angiography (CA) [2,3]. However, this timing seems hard to achieve in daily clinical practice, above all, when high-risk NSTEACS patients are now advised for an early invasive strategy. We aimed to assess the feasibility of these recommendations in real-world clinical practice. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of a real-life cohort of NSTEACS patients referred to CA in a tertiary-level hospital between January and December 2020. Results We analysed 347 consecutive NSTEACS patients referred to CA (21.7% unstable angina, 78.3% NSTEMI). Percutaneous coronary intervention was performed in 60.5% and the radial or cubital artery access were exclusively used in 86.7%. Median time from hospital admission to CA was 39.4 hours (IQR: 20.7–67.0 hours) and 31.4% patients had the CA performed within first 24 hours (Figure 1). Main differences regarding clinical and risk-related variables among those patients who underwent CA before and after first 24 hours are shown in Table 1. More patients with NSTEMI and dynamic changes in ECG tended to be referred earlier to CA, while those with impaired renal function were more likely to receive a delayed strategy. There were 282 patients (82.7%) who met the high-risk criteria from current ESC guidelines on NSTEACS (GRACE risk score &amp;gt;140, ST transient elevation or depression in ECG, raise of cardiac troponin levels above the 99th percentile of the upper reference limit, cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest at presentation); of whom, only 95 (33.7%) were referred to CA in the first 24 hours. No differences were found according to patients being admitted to PCI or non-PCI centres (32.1% vs. 30.9% had the CA performed within first 24 hours, p=0.81) or receiving pretreatment with a P2Y12 receptor inhibitor or not (31.7% vs. 31.0% of the CA ≤24 hours group; p=0.87). Conclusion Evidence from this real-life registry shows that median time from admission to CA is far from current recommendations for high-risk NSTEACS patients. This might represent an important limitation at the moment of translating guidelines to daily clinical practice, especially those who presume patients to have a CA performed within first 24 hours. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Does risk management affect productivity of organic rice farmers in India? Evidence from a semiparametric production model

This study analyzes the effects of farmers’ risk on productivity where the production function is generalized to be specific to risk variables. This resulted in a semiparametric smooth-coefficient (SPSC) production function. The novelty of the SPSC approach is that it can explain the direct and indirect channels through which risk can affect productivity. The study uses several measures of risk, including attitudes toward risk, perceptions of risk, and risk management skills of farmers. It then shows how these risk-related variables affect productivity both directly and indirectly via the inputs. Using 2015 farm-level data from organic basmati rice (OBR) smallholders in India, the study finds that OBR farmers with high degrees of risk aversion had lower productivity than less risk-averse or risk-neutral OBR farmers. Additionally, OBR farmers who were most concerned about production risks (i.e., weather and pest risks) had higher productivity than their counterparts. Finally, the study reveals that OBR farmers can reduce production costs by increasing farm size.

Risk Perception among Psychiatric Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The fear of the new coronavirus infection has driven many non-COVID-19 patients away from essential healthcare. Our study aimed to investigate the perception of risk and feelings of danger for the contagion in a sample of Italian psychiatric patients. We conducted a cross-sectional observational study during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown in Italy. The risk perception and risk-related variables were assessed in a sample of 150 consecutive patients with a previous diagnosis of major depression (50), bipolar I disorder (50), and schizophrenia seeking ambulatory care using a questionnaire previously administered to the general Italian population. Our results showed that patients were more concerned about economic, psychological, and interpersonal consequences of COVID-19 pandemic, rather than about their own health. At the multiple regression analysis, the likelihood of COVID-19 resolution was positively influenced by the diagnosis of schizophrenia, the increased perceived effectiveness, and the presence of positive emotions. Indeed, positive emotions and uncertainty positively influenced interpersonal risk. Our study highlights the need to provide more support to psychiatric patients during emergency events to prevent them from engaging in risky behaviors.

Demographic, clinical guideline criteria, Medicaid expansion and state of residency: a multilevel analysis of PrEP use on a large US sample

ObjectiveTo explore the association of clinical guideline-related variables, demographics and Medicaid expansion on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake in one of the largest US sample of men who have sex with...

Commonality in Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory and Intermediary Distress

Abstract Two intermediary-based factors—a corporate bond dealer inventory measure and a broad intermediary distress measure—explain more than 40$\%$ of the puzzling common variation in credit spread changes beyond canonical structural factors. A simple intermediary-based model with partial market segmentation accounts for intermediary factors’ explanatory power and delivers three further implications with empirical support. First, whereas bond sorts on risk-related variables produce monotonic loading patterns on intermediary factors, non-risk-related sorts produce no pattern. Second, dealer inventory comoves with corporate-credit assets only, whereas intermediary distress comoves with both corporate-credit and non-corporate-credit assets. Third, dealers’ inventory responds to (instrumented) bond sales by institutional investors.

The Effect of Traumatic Brain Injury on Alzheimer’s Disease and Cognitive Decline in Veterans and Non-Veterans

We assess the differences in the effect of traumatic brain injury (TBI) on the decline in cognitive status and the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementia (AD/ADRD) between veteran and non-veteran respondents of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and measure the sensitivity of these differences to the incremental introduction of controls for associated risk factors. Three groups of AD/ADRD risk-related variables were used: i) demographic/socioeconomic factors, including gender, race, marital status, education, income, and the number of limitations in activities of daily living; ii) comorbidities, including co-existing depression/post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD), substance (alcohol, tobacco and/or prescription drug) abuse, diabetes mellitus, stroke, and heart failure; and iii) genetic factors, including the presence of at least one pair of the APOE4 allele and a series of polygenic risk scores associated with AD hallmarks. The dynamics of changes in cognitive impairment in response to TBI, PTSD, and mild cognitive impairment were validated against respective measures estimated using the Department of Defense Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (DoD-ADNI) data. The results of the analyses showed that TBI and PTSD were strongly associated with cognitive decline and the risks of AD/ADRD in both veteran and non-veteran subpopulations in HRS data and the difference between them was not statistically significant. Effect magnitude decreased with the addition of risk-related control variables but remained associated with the increased risks. Prevalence of mild cognitive impairment was associated with TBI at baseline in DoD-ADNI data, but no cognitive decline was observed during one year of follow-up.

Newcomers' Priorities in Portfolio Selection: A Shannon Entropy Approach

Having a good stock portfolio, which is one of the most important factors in making money in the stock market, requires the correct choice of criteria. This issue for new stock traders in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) who do more than 50 per cent of daily transactions in this market, due to their lack of sufficient experience, seems thoroughly essential. As a result, newcomers who were trading in the Tehran Stock Exchange in 2020 have been invited to participate in this study. After identifying the most influential variables in portfolio-selection via Delphi Method, these factors have been ranked based on Shannon’s Entropy Approach. The results show that Familiarity, Net Profit Ratio and Stock Price are respectively the main priorities of new entrants in choosing the stock portfolio. Besides, risk-related variables have generally the least importance in stock portfolio selection from the perspective of new entrants.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the climate change debate on Twitter?

Climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic share many similarities. However, in the past months, concerns have increased about the fact the health emergency has put on hold during the pandemic many climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We focus our attention on understanding the role of the recent health emergency on the transmission of information related to climate change, jointly with other socio-economic variables, social norms, and cultural dimensions. In doing so, we create a unique dataset containing the number of tweets written with specific climate related keywords per country worldwide, as well as country specific socio-economic characteristics, relevant social norms, and cultural variables. We find that socio-economic variables, such as income, education, and other risk-related variables matter in the transmission of information about climate change and Twitter activity. We also find that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly decreased the overall number of messages written about climate change, postponing the climate debate worldwide; but particularly in some vulnerable countries. This shows that in spite of the existing climate emergency, the current pandemic has had a detrimental effect over the short-term planning of climate policies in countries where climate action is urgent.

Traumatic Brain Injury and Dementia in Medicare Population: Differences in Risk Between Veterans and Non-Veterans

The aim of this study was to assess differences in the effect of traumatic brain injury (TBI) on the onset of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and other dementias between veteran and non-veteran respondents of the Health and Retirement Study as well as to measure the sensitivity of these differences to the introduction of controls for groups of demographic, medical co-morbidity and polygenic risk scores reflecting AD hallmarks. Using the Fine-Gray proportional hazards model we found that TBI was a strong predictor of dementia in community dwelling residents age 65+: for AD associated risk was 181% [Hazard Ratio (HR): 2.81; CI:2.05-3.86] sample-wide and 142% [HR: 2.42; CI:1.31-2.46] in veteran males. Effect magnitude decreased with the addition of risk-related control variables but remained associated with significantly increased risk. Large differences in risk were observed between veteran and non-veteran males for AD, vascular dementia, senile dementia, and dementia with Lewy Bodies

Treatment outcomes of a CBT-based group intervention for adolescents with Internet use disorders.

Background and aimsInstances of Internet use disorders (IUD) including Internet gaming disorder (IGD) and non-gaming pathological Internet use (ng-PIU) have the extent that they are now a growing mental health issue. Individuals suffering from IUD show a large range of symptoms, high comorbidities and impairments in different areas of life. To date there is a lack of efficient and evidence-based treatment programs for such adolescents. The present registered single-arm trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03582839) aimed to investigate the long-term effects of a brief manualized cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) program for adolescents with IUD.MethodsN = 54 patients (16.7% female), aged 9–19 years (M = 13.48, SD = 1.72) received the CBT group program PROTECT+. IUD symptom severity (primary outcome variable) as well as comorbid symptoms, risk-related variables and potentially protective skills (secondary outcome variables) were assessed at pretest, posttest, as well as 4 and 12 months after admission.ResultsPatients showed a significant reduction in IUD symptom severity at the 12-month follow-up. Effect sizes were medium to large depending on the measure. Beyond the statistical significance, the clinical significance was confirmed using the reliable change index. Secondary outcome variables showed a significant reduction in self-reported depression, social anxiety, performance anxiety and school anxiety as well as in parental-reported general psychopathology.Discussion and conclusionsThe present study shows long-term effects of a manual-based CBT treatment for adolescents suffering from IUD. The results indicate that even a 4-session brief intervention can achieve a medium to large effect over 12 months. Future work is needed to confirm the efficacy within a randomized controlled trial (RCT).

Risk Perceptions and Psychological Effects During the Italian COVID-19 Emergency.

The current study provides data about the immediate risk perceptions and psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic among Italian participants. A sample of 980 volunteers answered a web-based survey which aimed to investigate the many facets of risk perceptions connected to COVID-19 (health, work, institutional-economy, interpersonal and psychological), and risk-related variables such as perceived knowledge, news seeking, perceived control, perceived efficacy of containment measures, and affective states. Socio-demographic characteristics were also collected. Results showed that although levels of general concern are relatively high among Italians, risk perceptions are highest with regards to the institutional-economy and work, and lowest concerning health. COVID-19 has been also estimated to be the least likely cause of death. Cognitive and affective risk-related variables contributed to explain the several risk perception domains differently. COVID-19 perceived knowledge did not affect any risk perception while the perceived control decreased health risk likelihood. The other risk-related variables amplified risk perceptions: News seeking increased work and institutional-economy risk; perceived efficacy of containment measures increased almost all perceived risks; negative affective states of fear, anger and sadness increased health risk; anxiety increased health, interpersonal and psychological risks, and uncertainty increased work, institutional-economy, interpersonal and psychological risk perceptions. Finally, positive affective states increased health risk perception. Socio-psychological implications are discussed.

Who Is the Citizen in Citizen Security?

This article explores the governing logics and political implications of citizen security in Puebla, Mexico, specifically, the Programa Nacional de Prevención del Delito (National Program for the Prevention of Crime, PRONAPRED). Taking a biopolitical perspective, the article centers on how citizens are produced through the application of citizen security initiatives. This production operates at two levels: the regulation of populations and the molding of subjects. First, vital statistics and risk-related variables highlight those populations that exceed the median for risk. Second, those at-risk groups are targeted for training to reduce their susceptibility to violence. Training focuses on the individual, asking citizens to identify and minimize risk in a manner that emanates from and contributes to security governance. The political ontology of citizen security is this citizen/citizenry coincident with official measures. The democratic aspirations of citizen security are consequently muted, as security governance locates citizens within the confines of state power and, at the same time, holds them separate from this power to produce citizen existence.

Age Group Differences in Household Accident Risk Perceptions and Intentions to Reduce Hazards.

Very little is known about the extent to which seemingly vulnerable younger and older adults appraise household risks and relatedly whether safety information focused on raising risk awareness influences intentions to reduce hazards in the home. The present study assessed age differences in accident experience, risk attitudes, household accident risk perceptions, comparative optimism, personal control, efficacy judgements, and intentions to remove household hazards. It also examined the predictors of these intentions. Thirty-eight younger adults (aged 18 to 25) and forty older adults (aged 65 to 87) completed study booklets containing all measures. There were significant age group differences for all accident experience and risk-related variables. Younger adults experienced more accidents, had riskier attitudes, and had significantly lower cognitive risk perceptions (i.e., they were less likely to be injured due to a household accident). They also had lower affective risk perceptions (i.e., they were less worried) about their accident risk and perceived more personal control over the risk compared with older adults. Young adults were comparatively optimistic about their risk while older adults were pessimistic. Older adults had higher response efficacy and intentions to reduce hazards in the home. Only worry, response efficacy, and risk attitudes predicted intention, however, these relationships were not moderated by age or efficacy appraisal. Although tentative theoretical and practical implications are presented, further research is required in order to better understand the objective and subjective risk associated with household accidents, and to determine the factors that may improve safety, particularly for those most vulnerable.

Elevated levels of serum nitrite and nitrate, NOx, are associated with increased total and cardiovascular mortality in an 8-year follow-up study.

Nitric oxide (NO) is one of the key regulators of vascular function. Abnormal NO signalling is linked to various cardiovascular diseases. We studied associations between circulating levels of NO metabolites, nitrite and nitrate (NOx) and total and cardiovascular mortality in a prospective 8-year follow-up cohort study in 1869 patients aged over 55years. The Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) regression models were adjusted for multiple risk-related variables. Post hoc Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared by the Log-rank test. Proportional Cox regression analysis demonstrated that high serum levels of NOx over 70µmol/L were associated with elevated total mortality (HR 1.4; 95% CI: 1.06-1.80; P=0.02) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.4; 95% CI: 0.98-1.98; P=0.03) when HR was adjusted for age, sex, smoking and urinary creatinine. Additional adjustments for various mortality-associated baseline comorbidities did not influence associations of elevated NOx with total and cardiovascular mortality. Association of elevated NOx with total mortality persisted in the multivariate regression model combining a number of other characteristics while association of NOx with cardiovascular mortality became non-significant in the multivariate model. Specific subset of patients contributing to these associations was determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicating that cardiovascular and total mortality were increased in men with high serum levels of NOx over 70µmol/L (Log-rank test P=0.01). These associations were not observed in women. Elevated concentrations of serum NOx over 70µmol/L can be used to predict mortality in men over 55years of age.