Risk Of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Research Articles

Proteomic Analyses in Diverse Populations Improved Risk Prediction and Identified New Drug Targets for Type 2 Diabetes.

Integrated analyses of plasma proteomics and genetic data in prospective studies can help assess the causal relevance of proteins, improve risk prediction, and discover novel protein drug targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D). We measured plasma levels of 2,923 proteins using Olink Explore among ∼2,000 randomly selected participants from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) without prior diabetes at baseline. Cox regression assessed associations of individual protein with incident T2D (n = 92 cases). Proteomic-based risk models were developed with discrimination, calibration, reclassification assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and net reclassification index (NRI), respectively. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using cis-protein quantitative trait loci identified in a genome-wide association study of CKB and UK Biobank for specific proteins were conducted to assess their causal relevance for T2D, along with colocalization analyses to examine shared causal variants between proteins and T2D. Overall, 33 proteins were significantly associated (false discovery rate < 0.05) with risk of incident T2D, including IGFBP1, GHR, and amylase. The addition of these 33 proteins to a conventional risk prediction model improved AUC from 0.77 (0.73-0.82) to 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and NRI by 38%, with predicted risks well calibrated with observed risks. MR analyses provided support for the causal relevance for T2D of ENTR1, LPL, and PON3, with replication of ENTR1 and LPL in Europeans using different genetic instruments. Moreover, colocalization analyses showed strong evidence (pH4 > 0.6) of shared genetic variants of LPL and PON3 with T2D. Proteomic analyses in Chinese adults identified novel associations of multiple proteins with T2D with strong genetic evidence supporting their causal relevance and potential as novel drug targets for prevention and treatment of T2D.

Smoking timing, genetic susceptibility and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes: A cohort study from the UK Biobank.

To prospectively assess the association of smoking timing with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and examine whether smoking amount or genetic susceptibility might modify the relationship. A total of 294 815 participants without diabetes from the UK Biobank, including non-smokers and smokers with data on the time from waking to first cigarette, were included. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between smoking timing and the risk of incident T2D. During a median follow-up time of 12 years, a total of 9937 incident cases of T2D were documented. Compared with non-smokers, a shorter time from waking to first cigarette was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D (P for trend < .001). In the fully adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval) associated with smoking timing were 1.46 (1.17-1.81) for more than 2 hours, 1.51 (1.21-1.87) for 1-2 hours, 1.58 (1.34-1.85) for 30-60 minutes, 1.86 (1.57-2.21) for 5-15 minutes and 2.01 (1.60-2.54) for less than 5 minutes. We found that even among those who reported being light smokers, those with the shortest time from waking to first cigarette had a 105% higher risk of T2D with an HR of 2.05 (1.52-2.76), which was comparable with heavy smokers. The genetic risk score for T2D did not modify this association (P-interaction = .51). Our findings indicate that shorter time from waking to first cigarette is significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D.

Vitamin D status, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms, and risk of type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

Vitamin D status has been associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence is scarce regarding whether such relation differs by glycemic status. To prospectively investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and risk of incident T2D across the glycemic spectrum and the modification effect of genetic variants in vitamin D receptor (VDR). This prospective study included 379,699 participants without T2D at baseline from the UK Biobank. Analyses were performed according to glycemic status and HbA1c levels. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. During a median of 14.1 years of follow-up, 6,315 participants with normoglycemia and 9,085 prediabetes patients developed T2D. Compared to individuals with 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of incident T2D for those with 25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L was 0.62 (0.56, 0.70) among the normoglycemia and 0.64 (0.58, 0.70) among the prediabetes. A significant interaction was observed between 25(OH)D and VDR polymorphisms among participants with prediabetes (Pinteraction=0.017), whereby the reduced HR of T2D associated with higher 25(OH)D was more prominent in those carrying T allele of rs1544410. Triglycerides levels mediated 26% and 34% of the association between serum 25(OH)D and incident T2D among participants with normoglycemia and prediabetes. Higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with lower T2D risk across the glycemic spectrum below the threshold for diabetes, and the relations in prediabetes were modified by VDR polymorphisms. Improving lipid profile, mainly triglycerides, accounted for part of the favorable associations.

Air pollution, traffic noise, greenness, and temperature and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes: Results from the KORA cohort study.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major public health concern, and various environmental factors have been associated with the development of this disease. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal effects of multiple environmental exposures on the risk of incident T2D in a German population-based cohort. We used data from the KORA cohort study (Augsburg, Germany) and assessed exposure to air pollutants, traffic noise, greenness, and temperature at the participants' residencies. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the associations with incident T2D, adjusting for potential confounders. Of 7736 participants included in the analyses, 10.5% developed T2D during follow-up (mean: 15.0 years). We found weak or no association between environmental factors and the risk of T2D, with sex and education level significantly modifying the effects of air pollutants. Our study contributes to the growing body of literature investigating the impact of environmental factors on T2D risks and suggests that the impact of environmental factors may be small.

Type 2 diabetes metabolomics score and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

Several metabolites are individually related to incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. We prospectively evaluated a novel T2D-metabolite pattern with a risk of progression to T2D among high-risk women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The longitudinal Nurses' Health Study II cohort enroled 116,429 women in 1989 and collected blood samples from 1996 to 1999. We profiled plasma metabolites in 175 incident T2D cases and 175 age-matched controls, all with a history of GDM before the blood draw. We derived a metabolomics score from 21 metabolites previously associated with incident T2D in the published literature by scoring according to the participants' quintile (1-5 points) of each metabolite. We modelled the T2D metabolomics score categorically in quartiles and continuously per 1 standard deviation (SD) with the risk of incident T2D using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for body mass index at the blood draw, and other established T2D risk factors. The percentage of women progressing to T2D ranged from 10% in the bottom T2D metabolomics score quartile to 78% in the highest score quartile. Adjusting for established T2D risk factors, women in the highest quartile had more than a 20-fold greater diabetes risk than women in the lowest quartile (odds ratios [OR]=23.1 [95% CI=8.6, 62.1]; p for trend<0.001). The continuous T2D metabolomics score was strongly and positively associated with incident T2D (adjusted OR=2.7 per SD [95% CI=1.9, 3.7], p<0.0001). A pattern of plasma metabolites among high-risk women is associated with a markedly elevated risk of progression to T2D later in life.

Role of Gut Microbiota in Statin-Associated New-Onset Diabetes-A Cross-Sectional and Prospective Analysis of the FINRISK 2002 Cohort.

Dyslipidemia is treated effectively with statins, but treatment has the potential to induce new-onset type-2 diabetes. Gut microbiota may contribute to this outcome variability. We assessed the associations of gut microbiota diversity and composition with statins. Bacterial associations with statin-associated new-onset type-2 diabetes (T2D) risk were also prospectively evaluated. We examined shallow-shotgun-sequenced fecal samples from 5755 individuals in the FINRISK-2002 population cohort with a 17+-year-long register-based follow-up. Alpha-diversity was quantified using Shannon index and beta-diversity with Aitchison distance. Species-specific differential abundances were analyzed using general multivariate regression. Prospective associations were assessed with Cox regression. Applicable results were validated using gradient boosting. Statin use associated with differing taxonomic composition (R2, 0.02%; q=0.02) and 13 differentially abundant species in fully adjusted models (MaAsLin; q<0.05). The strongest positive association was with Clostridium sartagoforme (β=0.37; SE=0.13; q=0.02) and the strongest negative association with Bacteroides cellulosilyticus (β=-0.31; SE=0.11; q=0.02). Twenty-five microbial features had significant associations with incident T2D in statin users, of which only Bacteroides vulgatus (HR, 1.286 [1.136-1.457]; q=0.03) was consistent regardless of model adjustment. Finally, higher statin-associated T2D risk was seen with [Ruminococcus] torques (ΔHRstatins, +0.11; q=0.03), Blautia obeum (ΔHRstatins, +0.06; q=0.01), Blautia sp. KLE 1732 (ΔHRstatins, +0.05; q=0.01), and beta-diversity principal component 1 (ΔHRstatin, +0.07; q=0.03) but only when adjusting for demographic covariates. Statin users have compositionally differing microbiotas from nonusers. The human gut microbiota is associated with incident T2D risk in statin users and possibly has additive effects on statin-associated new-onset T2D risk.

Triglycerides/HDL cholesterol ratio and type 2 diabetes incidence: Panasonic Cohort Study 10

BackgroundPrevious studies have investigated the association between the ratio of triglycerides (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and the incidence of diabetes in adults and discovered that a high TG/HDL-C ratio was linked to an elevated risk of new-onset diabetes. However, the comparison of predicting diabetes development among lipid profiles including the TG/HDL-C ratio, and the ratio of TG/HDL-C cut-off value has received limited attention. We examined the relationship between diabetes onset and the TG/HDL-C ratio in addition to the applicable cut-off value for predicting diabetes onset.MethodsThis study included 120,613 participants from the health examination database at Panasonic Corporation from 2008 to 2017. Cox regression analysis employing multivariable models was used to investigate the association between lipid profiles, particularly the ratio of TG/HDL-C and the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The multivariable model was adjusted for age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, plasma glucose levels after fasting, smoking status, and exercise habits. Areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) were employed to assess the prediction performance and cut-off values of each indicator. A fasting plasma glucose level of 126 mg/dL, a self-reported history of diabetes, or usage of antidiabetic medicines were used to identify T2D.ResultsDuring the course of the study, 6,080 people developed T2D. The median follow-up duration was 6.0 (3–10) years. Multivariable analysis revealed that the ratio of TG/HDL-C (per unit, HR; 1.03 [95% CI 1.02–1.03]) was substantially linked to the risk of incident T2D. AUC and cut-off points for the ratio of TG/HDL-C for T2D development after 10 years were 0.679 and 2.1, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC of the ratio of TG/HDL-C was considerably larger compared to that of LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG alone (all P < 0.001). We discovered an interaction effect between sex, BMI, and lipid profiles in subgroup analysis. Females and participants having a BMI of < 25 kg/m2 showed a higher correlation between lipid profile levels and T2D onset.ConclusionsThe ratio of TG/HDL-C was found to be a stronger predictor of T2D development within 10 years than LDL-C, HDL-C, or TG, indicating that it may be useful in future medical treatment support.

Dietary Sodium Intake and Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

ObjectiveTo fill the knowledge gap of the relation between long-term dietary sodium intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D), we evaluate the association between the frequency of adding salt to foods, a surrogate marker for evaluating the long-term sodium intake, and incident T2D risk. MethodsA total of 402,982 participants from UK Biobank (March 13, 2006 – October 10, 2010) who were free of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cancer, or cardiovascular disease at baseline, and had completed information on adding salt were analyzed in this study. ResultsDuring a median of 11.9 years of follow-up, 13,120 incident cases of T2D were documented. Compared with participants who “never/rarely” added salt to foods, the adjusted HRs were 1.11 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.15), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.24), and 1.28 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.37) across the groups of “sometimes,” “usually,” and “always,” respectively (P-trend<.001). We did not find significant interactions between the frequency of adding salt to foods and baseline hypertension status and other covariates on the risk of incident T2D. The observed positive association was partly mediated by body mass index, waist to hip ratio, and C-reactive protein, with a significant mediation effect of 33.8%, 39.9%, and 8.6%, respectively. The significant mediation effect of body mass index was largely driven by the body fat mass rather than the body fat-free mass. ConclusionOur findings for the first time indicate that higher frequency of adding salt to foods, a surrogate marker for a person’s long-term salt taste preference and intake, is associated with a higher T2D risk.

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and Type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease.

To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92). These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits.

Circulating organochlorine pesticide levels, genetic predisposition and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes

Persistent organochlorine pesticide (OCP) has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and genetic polymorphism might modify such an association. However, prospective evidence remains scarce. We conducted a nested case-control study comprising 1006 incident diabetic cases and 1006 matched non-diabetic controls [sex and age (±5 years)] from 2008 to 2013 (mean follow-up period: ∼4.6 years) based on the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort in Shiyan City of China, determined baseline levels of nineteen OCPs, and examined the associations of circulating OCPs, both individually and collectively, with incident T2D risk. We also constructed overall genetic risk score (GRS) based on 161 T2D-associated variants and five pathway-specific cluster GRSs based on established variants derived from the Asian population. Compared with the first quartile of serum β-BHC levels, the multivariable-adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of incident T2D risk in the second, third, and fourth quartiles were 0.98 (0.70–1.39), 1.43 (0.99–2.07), and 1.75 (1.14–2.68), respectively (FDR-adjusted Ptrend = 0.03). A positive association was observed between serum OCP mixture and incident T2D risk and can be largely attributed to β-BHC. Furthermore, serum β-BHC and p,p’-DDE showed significant interactions with the GRS for lipodystrophy, a T2D-related pathway representing fat redistribution to viscera, on T2D risk (Pinteraction < 0.05). In conclusion, higher circulating OCP levels were independently associated with an increased risk of T2D, with β-BHC possibly being the major contributor. Genetic predisposition to T2D-related morbidity, such as visceral adiposity, should be considered when assessing the risk of T2D conferred by OCPs.

Association between dietary carbohydrate intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Previous meta-analyses have assessed the relationship between carbohydrate intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk; however, they included few studies of Asian populations who have a higher carbohydrate intake and lower insulin secretory capacity than non-Asians. Since the publication of the previous meta-analyses, three further studies of Asian populations have been conducted. Based on this background, the present study aimed to perform an updated systematically examine observational studies concerning the link between dietary carbohydrate intake and T2D risk. We conducted a systematic search for cohort studies that investigated the target association. For each analyzed study, parameter-adjusted risk ratios were used to compare the lowest and highest carbohydrate-intake groups in terms of their risk of incident T2D. The risk ratios were calculated using a random-effects model. Ten publications were analyzed. Overall, carbohydrate intake was found not to be associated with increased risk ratios of incident T2D (risk ratio [RR] = 1.07; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.94, 1.21; P < 0.01, I2 = 61.9%). However, studies of Asian populations reported that high carbohydrate intake is significantly associated with this risk (RR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.15, 1.45; P = 0.59, I2 = 0.0%). This updated meta-analysis showed that, overall, carbohydrate intake is not associated with the risk of T2D; nevertheless, a significant association exists among Asian populations. To confirm the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and T2D risk observed in this study, further evidence from long-term observational studies of Asian populations is required. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13340-023-00642-0.

1376-P: Dietary Sodium Intake and Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

Background: Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) and hypertension often coexist and share many common risk factors. High dietary sodium intake is a well-established risk factor for hypertension, whereas few studies have assessed the relation between dietary sodium intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the association between the frequency of adding salt to foods, a surrogate marker for evaluating the long-term sodium intake, and incident T2D risk. Methods: A total of 402,982 participants from UK biobank, who were free of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cancer, or cardiovascular disease at baseline, and had completed information on adding salt were analyzed in this study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between the frequency of adding salt to foods and incident T2D. Results: During a median of 11.8 years of follow-up, 13,120 incident T2D were documented. Compared with participants who Never/Rarely added salt to foods, the adjusted Hazard Ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.13 (1.08, 1.17), 1.20 (1.14, 1.26), and 1.39 (1.30, 1.49) across the groups of Sometimes, Usually, and Always, respectively (P-trend&amp;lt;0.001). We did not find significant interactions between the frequency of adding salt to foods and baseline hypertension status and other covariates on the risk of incident T2D. The observed positive association was partly mediated by body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio, and C-reactive protein, with a significant mediation effect of 32.9%, 36.6% and 7.0%, respectively. The significant mediation effect of BMI was largely driven by the body fat mass rather than the body fat-free mass. Conclusions: Our findings for the first time indicate that higher frequency of adding salt to foods, a surrogate marker for a person’s long-term salt taste preference and intake, is associated with a higher T2D risk. Disclosure X.Wang: None. H.Ma: None. R.Tang: None. Q.Xue: None. X.Li: None. Y.Heianza: None. L.Qi: None.

Gene-environment interaction in long-term effects of polychlorinated biphenyls exposure on glucose homeostasis and type 2 diabetes: The modifying effects of genetic risk and lifestyle

The longitudinal relationships of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) exposure with glucose homeostasis and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among Chinese population have not been assessed, and interactions of PCB exposure with genetic susceptibility and lifestyle are unclear. In this prospective cohort study, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and insulin (FPI) and seven serum indicator-PCBs were measured for each participant. We constructed polygenic risk score (PRS) of T2D and healthy lifestyle score. Each 1-unit increment of ln-transformed PCB-118 was related with a 0.141 mmol/L, 11.410 pmol/L, 0.661, and 74.5% increase in FPG, FPI, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and incident T2D risk over 6 years, respectively. Each 1-unit increment in T2D-PRS was related with a 0.169 mmol/L elevation of FPG and 65.5% elevation of incident T2D risk during 6 years. Compared with participants who had low T2D-PRS and low PCB-118, participants with high T2D-PRS and high PCB-118 showed a significant increase in FPG (0.162 mmol/L; P for interaction <0.001) and incident T2D risk [hazard ratio (HR)= 2.222]. Participants with low PCB-118, low PRS, and healthy lifestyle had the lowest incident T2D risk (HR=0.232). Our findings highlighted the significance of reducing PCB exposure and improvement in lifestyle for T2D prevention and management, especially for individuals with higher genetic risk of T2D.

Mediation of metabolic syndrome in the association between long-term co-exposure to road traffic noise, air pollution and incident type 2 diabetes

ObjectivesRecent studies have linked exposure to road traffic noise or air pollution with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D), but investigation on their co-exposure was limited and underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that long-term co-exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution increases the risk of incident T2D via the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS). MethodsThis prospective study included 390,834 participants in UK Biobank. Cumulative risk index (CRI), the health-based weighted levels of multiple exposures, was applied to characterize the co-exposure to 24-hour road traffic noise (Lden), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Lden was modeled by the Common Noise Assessment Methods in Europe and air pollutant levels were measured by the Land Use Regression model at participants’ residential addresses. Incident T2D was ascertained through linkages to inpatient hospital records. MetS was defined by five (central obesity, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose, and blood pressure) or six factors (C-reactive protein additionally). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between environmental exposures and incident T2D, and mediation analyses were applied to investigate the role of MetS. ResultsAfter a median of 10.9 years of follow-up, 13,214 (3.4%) incident T2D cases were ascertained. The exposure to Lden, PM2.5, and NO2, as well as their co-exposure, were significantly associated with an elevated risk of incident T2D, with HRs of 1.03 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.05) per 3.5 dB(A) increase in Lden, 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.10) per 1.3 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.07 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.11) per 9.8 μg/m3 increase in NO2, and 1.06 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.09) per interquartile range increase in CRI. MetS significantly mediated 43.5%− 54.7% of the CRI-T2D relationship. ConclusionsLong-term co-exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution is associated with an elevated risk of incident T2D, which may partly be mediated by MetS.

Diurnal Cortisol Features and Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Patients With Hypertension and Obstructive Sleep Apnea: A Cohort Study.

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis may be associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D); however, whether HPA axis dysfunction is associated with incident T2D remains unclear in patients with hypertension and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). To investigate the relationship between the diurnal cortisol features and the risk of incident T2D in patients with hypertension and OSA. Participants with cortisol rhythm test at baseline in the Urumqi Research on Sleep Apnea and Hypertension cohort were enrolled. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between ln-transformed diurnal cortisol features and T2D risk. Stratified and sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 1478 patients with hypertension and OSA were enrolled in this study. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 196 participants developed T2D. Overall, a steep diurnal cortisol slope (DCS) was significantly associated with decreased T2D risk (per SD increase, HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.97, P = .014). Midnight cortisol was positively associated with increased T2D risk (per SD increase, HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.45, P = .003). Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Neither DCS nor midnight cortisol was associated with incident T2D in the women's subgroup or participants with mild OSA. Steeper DCS and higher midnight cortisol levels are associated with lower and higher T2D risks in patients with hypertension and OSA, respectively, at least in men or participants with moderate to severe OSA. Diurnal cortisol features may represent an early prevention target for diabetes in this population.

A polygenic and family risk score are both independently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in a population-based study

The availability of polygenic scores for type 2 diabetes (T2D) raises the question, whether assessing family history might become redundant. However, family history not only involves shared genetics, but also shared environment. It was the aim of this study to assess the independent and combined effects of one family risk score (FamRS) and a polygenic score (PGS) on prevalent and incident T2D risk in a population-based study from Germany (n = 3071). The study was conducted in 2004/2005 with up to 12 years of follow-up. The FamRS takes into account not only the number of diseased first grade relatives, but also age at onset of the relatives and age of participants. 256 prevalent and additional 163 incident T2D cases were recorded. Prevalence of T2D increased sharply for those within the top quantile of the PGS distribution resulting in an OR of 19.16 (p < 2 × 10–16) for the top 20% compared to the remainder of the population, independent of age, sex, BMI, physical activity and FamRS. On the other hand, having a very strong family risk compared to average was still associated with an OR of 2.78 (p = 0.001), independent of the aforementioned factors and the PGS. The PGS and FamRS were only slightly correlated (r2Spearman = 0.018). The combined contribution of both factors varied with varying age-groups, though, with decreasing influence of the PGS with increasing age. To conclude, both, genetic information and family history are relevant for the prediction of T2D risk and might be used for identification of high risk groups to personalize prevention measures.

Abstract 66: Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk

Introduction: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in elevated risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) and death, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of incident T2D. Methods: CHIP was derived from whole genome sequencing of blood DNA in NHLBI Trans-omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) cohorts. We analyzed 17,637 participants without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at blood draw, with prospective follow-up for incident T2D. We evaluated baseline prevalence of CHIP vs. no CHIP with incident T2D risk using Cox regression. We also investigated CHIP variants previously related to CHD: DNMT3A , TET2 , ASXL1 , JAK2 , and TP53 . We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR [CI]) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, and education. We combined cohort estimates via fixed effects meta-analysis. Results: On average, participants were age 63.4 years (SD=11.5) and 76% female. Prevalence of CHIP was 6.0% (1,055) at baseline. There were 2,467 incident T2D cases over mean=9.8 years follow-up. Compared to those without a mutation, having CHIP was associated with a 23% higher T2D risk, both overall (combined HR=1.23; 95% CI=1.04, 1.45), and among those with CHD-related CHIP mutations (87% of total CHIP): HR=1.23 (1.03, 1.46). Although those with CHIP mutations of TET2 (HR=1.48; 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR=1.76; 1.03, 2.99) had larger elevations in T2D risk, and DNMT3A was suggestive of increased T2D risk (HR=1.15; 0.93, 1.43), statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 mutation analyses. Conclusions: CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on loci previously implicated in aging and CHD were also related to T2D, suggesting shared pathology of atherosclerosis and T2D.

Abstract P346: Adherence to the French Dietary Guidelines and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: The E3n-Epic Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Recently, a dietary index reflecting adherence to the 2017 French food-based dietary guidelines, the Programme National Nutrition Santé - guidelines score 2 (PNNS-GS2), has been developed, but evidence on its level of adherence and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is limited. Objective: We aimed to investigate the association between adherence to the simplified PNNS-GS2 (sPNNS-GS2) and the risk of incident T2D in a French cohort of women. Methods: Between 1993 and 2014, 71,450 women aged over 18 years were examined, and thereafter followed up for the occurrence of T2D within the E3N-EPIC prospective cohort. Dietary data were collected at baseline via a food frequency questionnaire, and the sPNNS-GS2 was derived for each participant. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of T2D for continuous and quintile groups of the sPNNS-GS2. Effect modification by body mass index (BMI) and mediation by BMI and waist-hip ratio (WHR) were explored. Results: The mean age was 52.9 years (SD 6.7). During a mean follow-up of 19 years, 3679 incident T2D cases were identified and validated. There was a linear association between adherence to sPNNS-GS2 and T2D risk (P non-linear = 0.85). In the fully adjusted model, each 1-SD increase in the sPNNS-GS2 was associated with a 8% decrease risk of T2D [HR (95% CI), 0.92 (0.89, 0.95)]. Compared to those with the lowest adherence (first quintile), the third [HR (95% CI), 0.91 (0.82, 1.00)] up to the fifth quintile group [HR (95% CI), 0.79 (0.71, 0.88)] had a lower T2D risk. There was a sPNNS-GS2 x BMI interaction on T2D risk (P interaction &lt; 0.01) but not with WHR. The overall association was partly mediated by BMI (18%) and WHR (59%). Conclusion: Higher adherence to the 2017 French food-based dietary guidelines was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women. Furthermore, our mediation analysis suggests that the lower risk of T2D in women associated with adherence to the sPNNS-GS2 is partly mediated by obesity measured by BMI or WHR.

Abstract P152: Joint Association of Sugar- and Artificially-Sweetened Beverage Consumption and Physical Activity and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in US Adults

Background: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and physical activity are independently associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk; however, it is unknown whether there is an interaction of SSB/ASB intake and physical activity on risk of T2D. Methods: We examined the independent and joint associations between habitual SSB/ASB intake and physical activity with incident T2D risk among 196,101 women and men from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980-2016), NHSII (1991-2017), and Health Professional’s Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR; CI), adjusting for demographic and lifestyle T2D risk factors. Results: There were 20,430 incident T2D cases over follow-up of 36, 26, and 30 years in NHS, NHSII, and HPFS, respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, we confirmed that participants with higher SSBs, ASBs and lower physical activity were independently at higher T2D risk, compared to lower intakes and higher activity levels. In joint analyses for these exposures, participants who did not meet physical activity guidelines and consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a significantly higher risk of T2D than those who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed SSBs (1.51; 1.43, 1.60); we observed similar findings for ASBs: 1.29; 1.23, 1.36). Among participants who met physical activity guidelines, those who consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a HR of 1.23 (1.16, 1.30); the HR for ASBs was 1.07 (1.02, 1.13). Consistent results were observed for women and men. Conclusions: Long-term habitual intake of SSBs or ASBs combined with lower physical activity was associated with higher risk of T2D in three large prospective cohort studies. These findings suggest that even when individuals are physically active, higher consumption of SSBs is associated with a higher risk of T2D. Our results support recommendations and policies to limit the intake of SSB and increase physical activity levels.

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, genetic susceptibility, and risk of type 2 diabetes in Swedish adults

Background and aimsIn 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission proposed a mainly plant-based diet that nurtures human health and supports environmental sustainability. However, its association with type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been widely studied, and it remains unclear whether genetic susceptibility for T2D can modify this association. The aim was therefore to investigate the association between the EAT-Lancet diet and risk of T2D and assess whether the association differs by the genetic predisposition to T2D. MethodsA total of 24,494 participants from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study were analyzed. Dietary intake was assessed using a modified diet history methodology, and an EAT-Lancet diet index (range from 0 to 42 points) was constructed based on the EAT-Lancet reference diet. National and local registers were used to identify T2D cases during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to estimate the association between the EAT-Lancet diet index and risk of T2D. Genetic predisposition to T2D was captured based on 116 single nucleotide polymorphisms. ResultsDuring a median of 24.3 years of follow-up, 4197 (17.1 %) T2D cases were documented. Compared with those with the lowest adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet (≤13 points), participants who had the highest adherence (≥23 points) showed an 18 % (95 % CI: 4 %–30 %) lower risk of T2D (P for trend <0.01). There was no significant multiplicative interaction between genetic predisposition to T2D and the EAT-Lancet diet index (P = 0.59). Also, no significant additive interaction between the genetic risk and the EAT-Lancet diet was seen (P = 0.44). The highest risk was observed among the 22.9 % of the individuals with high genetic risk and low EAT-Lancet diet score (HR = 1.79; 95 % CI: 1.63, 1.96). ConclusionsOur findings indicate that high adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with decreased risk of incident T2D among people with different genetic risks.