Risk Of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Research Articles

A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

Animal diseases can enter countries or regions through the movements of infected wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify the risk of entry via this introduction route for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both, and help policy-makers to make informed decisions. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its application by assessing the risk of entry of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014–2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the entry risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years, with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the number of infected birds to reach the Dutch border by wild bird migration at 273 (95% uncertainty interval: 254–290). The probability that ASF outbreaks that occurred between 2014 and 2021 reached the Dutch border through wild boar movement was very low throughout the whole period; only the upper confidence bound indicated a small entry risk. On a yearly scale, the predicted entry risk for HPAI correlated well with the number of observed outbreaks. In conclusion, we present a generic and flexible framework to assess the entry risk of disease through wildlife. The model allows rapid and transparent estimation of the entry risk for diverse diseases and wildlife species. The modular structure of the model allows for adding nuance and complexity when required or when more data becomes available.

Shifting Public Health Priorities and the Global Effort to Prevent a Bird Flu Pandemic

Global strategy to control highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has changed dramatically since 2003 when it was first reported that a confirmed bird flu jumped the species barrier to infect a human in Hong Kong. Evidence of this shift in priorities in the global fight against HPAI can be found most clearly in program funding trends. In late 2008 and into 2009, financial commitments from international donors for all HPAI programs dropped significantly. Meanwhile, within HPAI programs, funding shifted substantially away from animal biosecurity projects and into human response and preparedness work. This Article examines three reasons for this shift in priorities: the global experience with the H1N1 pandemic, the rise of the “One World, One Health” movement, and hard-learned lessons about both the locus of HPAI risk within the various sectors of poultry production in developing nations and the difficulty of changing behaviors in the name of making poultry production more secure. The Article concludes that the twin strategies of (1) building an international public health infrastructure that can better respond to emerging infections at the human-animal interface and (2) boosting preparedness for a potential human pandemic, while well-intentioned, are siphoning resources away from HPAI prevention at least in the short-run. Likewise, the strategy within HPAI prevention of concentrating efforts to improve biosecurity in commercial poultry production sectors leaves the vulnerable population in the backyard sector at greater risk for poultry infections that threaten their livelihoods and human infections that threaten their lives unless and until the benefits of commercial biosecurity trickle down to the backyard sector. In the end, we cannot afford public health strategies that short-shrift HPAI programs generally or HPAI prevention efforts in particular – including prevention efforts in the backyard farming sector – while focusing on other priorities.

국내 가금농장의 차단방역수준비교에 따른 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 위험도 평가

In most cases of HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) outbreaks, stamping-out operations are initiated by officially designating the affected premise, which is subsequently followed by depopulation of infected flocks. The primary objective of this study was to develop an evaluation method that correlates the level of biosecurity and the risk of having an HPAI outbreak in domestic poultry farms. A total of eight farms were selected nationwide, including layer farms, broiler farms, and an animal welfare type farm. The biosecurity level of the chosen poultry farms was assessed based on a total scoring index of 183 divided into three categories, general management (51), quarantine management (106), and sanitation management (26). Conclusively, the five layer farms (JS, GE, CS, HS, OE), scored higher overall scores compared to the animal welfare farm (CH) and broiler farms (JG, LB). In terms of scoring, which adds up to a total of 183 points, most layer farms scored between 130 and 157, while the two broiler farms and the welfare farm scored 45, 75 and 70, respectively. Next, an independent HPAI risk assessment of the farms was carried out. Regarding the correlation between biosecurity levels and HPAI risks, in the farms that presented a higher overall score in terms of biosecurity and outweighed the risks of HPAI, they tended to earn more points in the quarantine management category. The results of this study suggest that a viable system for evaluating biosecurity levels can establish strong correlations with the risk of having HPAI.

Modelling high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the commercial poultry industry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are devastating to poultry industries and pose a risk to human health. There is concern that demand for free-range poultry products could increase the number of HPAI outbreaks by increasing the potential for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) introduction to commercial flocks. We formulate stochastic mathematical models to understand how poultry-housing (barn, free-range and caged) within the meat and layer sectors interacts with a continuous low-level risk of introduction from wild birds, heterogeneity in virus transmission rates and virus mutation probabilities, to affect the risk of HPAI emergence — at both the shed and industry scales. For H5 and H7 viruses, restricted mixing in caged systems, free-range outdoor access and, particularly, production cycle length significantly influence HPAI risk between sectors of the chicken production industry. Results demonstrate how delay between virus mutation and detection, ensuing from the short production cycle, large shed sizes and industry reporting requirements, could mean that HPAI emerges in meat-production sheds but is undetected with few birds affected. We also find that the Australian HPAI outbreak history appears to be better explained by low LPAI introduction rates and low mutation probabilities, rather than extremely rare introduction and relatively high mutation probabilities.

Linking Supply Chain Governance and Biosecurity in the Context of HPAI Control in Western Java: A Value Chain Perspective.

Despite extensive efforts to control the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), it remains endemic in Western Java, Indonesia. To understand the limited effectiveness of HPAI control measures, it is important to map the complex structure of the poultry sector. The governance of the poultry value chain in particular, could play a pivotal role, yet there is limited information on the different chain governance structures and their impacts on HPAI control. This article uses value chain analysis (VCA), focusing on an in-depth assessment of governance structures as well as transaction cost economics and quantitative estimates of the market power of different chain actors, to establish a theoretical framework to examine biosecurity and HPAI control in the Western Java poultry chain. During the research, semi-structured interviews were conducted with key value-chain stakeholders, and the economic performance of identified actors was estimated. Results indicated the co-existence of four different poultry value chains in West Java: the integrator chain, the semi-automated slaughterhouse chain, the controlled slaughter-point chain, and the private slaughter-point chain. The integrator chain was characterized by the highest levels of coordination and a tight, hierarchical governance. In contrast, the other three types of value chains were less coordinated. The market power of the different actors within the four value chains also differed. In more integrated chains, slaughterhouses held considerable market power, while in more informal value chains, market power was in the hands of traders. The economic effects of HPAI and biosecurity measures also varied for the identified actors in the different value chains. Implementation of biosecurity and HPAI control measures was strongly related to the governance structure of the chain, with interactions between different chains and governance structures accentuating the risk of HPAI. Our findings highlight that a proper understanding of the chain governance structure is vital to improve the effectiveness of HPAI control measures, by making the interventions more specific and fit-for-purpose given the incentive structures present in different chains.

Evidence that avian influenza vaccination induces long-lived immune responses in zoo birds

VACCINATION has advanced as a control measure to protect zoo bird populations from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks (Ellis and others 2004; European Commission 2006; United States Department of...

Perceived Risk of Avian Influenza and Urbanization in Northern Vietnam.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an important public health concern because of potential for widespread morbidity and mortality in humans and poultry and associated devastating economic losses. We examined how perceptions of the risk of HPAI in poultry vary across communes/wards in the north of Vietnam at different levels of urbanization (rural, peri-urban, urban). Analyses of questionnaire responses from 1081 poultry raisers suggested that the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry was highest in peri-urban and rural settings. We also found that perceived risk was higher when respondents rated settings in which they did not live and that the process of change is related to perceived risk. Compared with others, respondents in peri-urban areas reported less disease management planning; respondents in rural areas reported less ability to separate infected poultry. These findings are consistent with, and add to, the limited previous research on the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry in developing countries. What is new in the present findings is that we describe how urbanization is related to people's perceptions of and ability to respond appropriately to variations in their environment. In particular, the inability to respond is not necessarily because of an inability to perceive change. Rather, rapid and extensive change poses different challenges for poultry management as communes move from rural to peri-urban to urban settings. Our results suggest that health promotion campaigns should address the perceptions and needs of poultry raisers in different settings.

Adoption of HPAI biosecurity measures: The Chinese broiler industry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) contamination via wild birds and rodents poses a threat to food security and safety. As chicken meat comprises an increasing proportion of diet in China, it is useful to determine whether broiler farmers are adopting wild bird and rodent controls to minimize the risk of HPAI impacts on food supply. Our study surveyed a cross sectional sample of 331 Chinese broiler farmers in six provinces. We find that only 47% of farmers (mainly farmers with large herds) adopted control measures against wild birds and rodents, while 14% adopted no measures. Farm size was the biggest driver of adoption followed by proportion of farm revenue derived from broiler production. However, southern farmers were at a far greater probability of non-adoption. We suggest that assistance in the form of education/training programs and subsidized traps or baiting controls across smaller producers could help raise of the adoption level toward more effective HPAI control.

Control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Quang Tri province, Vietnam: voices from the human-animal interface

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by the haemagglutinin 5, neuraminidase 1 (H5N1) influenza A virus. Around 80% of households in rural Vietnam raise poultry, which provides food security and nutrition to their households and beyond. Of these, around 15-20% are semi-commercial producers, producing at least 28% of the country's chicken. Through learning the experiences of these semi-commercial farmers, this study aimed to explore the local understandings and sociocultural aspects of HPAI's impact, particularly the aetiology, diagnosis, and the prevention and control methods in one Vietnamese rural province. This study was conducted in Quang Tri province, Vietnam. Quang Tri province has eight districts. Five of these districts were at high risk of HPAI during the study period, of which three were selected for the present study. Within these three districts, six communes were randomly selected for the study from the list of intervention communes in Quang Tri province. Six out of the 26 intervention communes in Quang Tri were therefore selected. Participants were randomly selected and recruited from lists of semi-commercial farmers, village animal health workers, village human health workers and local authorities so that the study population (representative population) included an amount of variability similar to that of the wider population. A key benefit of this village-level control program was the residential proximity of animal and human health professionals. Participants were well aware of the typical clinical signs for avian influenza and of the reporting process for suspect cases. However there was extensive room for improvement in Quang Tri province regarding access to the HPAI vaccine, essential medical equipment for animal use, and available financial support. This qualitative research study provided an important insight for in-country policy makers and international stakeholders. It is vital that there are continued efforts to prevent and control highly pathogenic avian influenza through support programs that provide locally appropriate information and resources to those at the human-animal interface.

An Exploration of How Perceptions of the Risk of Avian Influenza in Poultry Relate to Urbanization in Vietnam

This research examined how perceptions of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 in poultry are related to urbanization. Via in-depth interviews with village leaders, household farmers, and large farm operators in modern, transitional, and traditional communes in the north of Vietnam, we explored behaviors, attitudes, cultural values, and traditions that might amplify or attenuate HPAI outbreaks. We also explored conceptualizations of urbanization and its impacts on animal husbandry and disease outbreaks. Qualitative theme analyses identified the key impacts, factors related to HPAI outbreaks, and disease prevention and management strategies. The analyses also highlighted how urbanization improves some aspects of life (e.g., food security, family wealth and health, more employment opportunities, and improved infrastructure), but simultaneously poses significant challenges for poultry farming and disease management. Awareness of qualitative aspects of HPAI risk perceptions and behaviors and how they vary with urbanization processes may help to improve the prevention and management of emerging infectious diseases.

Distribution and dynamics of risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

Within China's Poyang Lake region, close interactions between wild migratory birds and domestic poultry are common and provide an opportunity for the transmission and subsequent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. We overlaid a series of ecological factors associated with HPAI to map the risk of HPAI in relation to natural and anthropogenic variables, and we identified two hotspots for potential HPAI outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region as well as three corridors connecting the two hotspot areas. In hotspot I, there is potential for migratory birds to bring new avian influenza (AI) strains that can reassort with existing strains to form new AI viruses. Hotspot II features high-density poultry production where outbreaks of endemic AI viruses are likely. The three communication corridors that link the two hotspots further promote HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks and lead to the persistence of AI viruses in the Poyang Lake region. We speculate that the region's unevenly distributed poultry supply-and-demand system might be a key factor inducing HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks in the Poyang Lake region.

Use of Personal Protective Measures by Thai Households in Areas with Avian Influenza Outbreaks

Thailand has had multiple poultry outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 since its first emergence in 2004. Twenty-five human cases of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza have been reported in the country, including 17 fatalities, and contact with infected dead or dying poultry has been identified as a risk factor for human infection. This study assessed the use of protective equipment and hand hygiene measures by Thai poultry-owning households during activities involving poultry contact. Surveys conducted in 2008 included questions regarding poultry-related activities and protective measures used during an HPAI outbreak (2005) and 3 years after the study location's last reported outbreak (2008). For both time periods, poultry owners reported limited use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during all activities and inconsistent hand washing practices after carrying poultry and gathering eggs. This is the first time that PPE use in Thailand has been quantified for a large study group. These data are important for ongoing characterization of HPAI risk and for the crafting of educational messages.

Assessment of Biosecurity Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Risks in Small-Scale Commercial Farms and Free-Range Poultry Flocks in the Northcentral Nigeria

There is considerable global concern over the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that has affected domestic poultry flocks in Nigeria and other parts of the world. There have been little investigations on the proposition that free-range flocks are potentially at higher risk of HPAI than confined small-scale commercial enterprises. The objective is to analyse the biosecurity measures instituted in the small-scale commercial poultry farms and established free-range bird flocks owned by households in the rural areas and qualitatively assess the risk status at the two levels of poultry management systems in northcentral Nigeria. We used data collected through questionnaire administration to farms and flock owners and subjected them to a traffic light system model to test for relative risks of HPAI infection based on the biosecurity measures put in place at the farm and flock levels. The results indicate that free-range flocks are at lower risk compared to small-scale commercial operations. These findings are plausible as birds from free-range flocks have more opportunities to contact wild bird reservoirs of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains than small-scale commercial poultry, thus providing them with constant challenge and maintenance of flock immunity. The development of efficient and effective biosecurity measures against poultry diseases on small-scale commercial farms requires adequate placement of barriers to provide segregation, cleaning and disinfection, while concerted community-led sanitary measures are required for free-range poultry flocks in the developing topical and subtropical economies.

Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling.

A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.

Environmental Factors Contributing to the Spread of H5N1 Avian Influenza in Mainland China

BackgroundSince late 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by infection with H5N1 virus has led to the deaths of millions of poultry and more than 10 thousands of wild birds, and as of 18-March 2008, at least 373 laboratory-confirmed human infections with 236 fatalities, have occurred. The unrestrained worldwide spread of this disease has caused great anxiety about the potential of another global pandemic. However, the effect of environmental factors influencing the spread of HPAI H5N1 virus is unclear.Methodology/Principal FindingsA database including incident dates and locations was developed for 128 confirmed HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds, as well as 21 human cases in mainland China during 2004–2006. These data, together with information on wild bird migration, poultry densities, and environmental variables (water bodies, wetlands, transportation routes, main cities, precipitation and elevation), were integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS). A case-control design was used to identify the environmental factors associated with the incidence of the disease. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that minimal distance to the nearest national highway, annual precipitation and the interaction between minimal distance to the nearest lake and wetland, were important predictive environmental variables for the risk of HPAI. A risk map was constructed based on these factors.Conclusions/SignificanceOur study indicates that environmental factors contribute to the spread of the disease. The risk map can be used to target countermeasures to stop further spread of the HPAI H5N1 at its source.

Avian influenza, domestic ducks and rice agriculture in Thailand

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused by H5N1 viruses has become a global scale problem which first emerged in southern China and from there spread to other countries in Southeast and East Asia, where it was first confirmed in end 2003. In previous work, geospatial analyses demonstrated that free grazing ducks played critical role in the epidemiology of the disease in Thailand in the winter 2004/2005, both in terms of HPAI emergence and spread. This study explored the geographic association between free grazing duck census counts and current statistics on the spatial distribution of rice crops in Thailand, in particular the crop calendar of rice production. The analysis was carried out using both district level rice statistics and rice distribution data predicted with the aid of remote sensing, using a rice-detection algorithm. The results indicated a strong association between the number of free grazing ducks and the number of months during which second-crop rice harvest takes place, as well as with the rice crop intensity as predicted by remote sensing. These results confirmed that free grazing duck husbandry was strongly driven by agricultural land use and rice crop intensity, and that this later variable can be readily predicted using remote sensing. Analysis of rice cropping patterns may provide an indication of the location of populations of free grazing ducks in other countries with similar mixed duck and rice production systems and less detailed duck census data. Apart from free ranging ducks and rice cropping, the role of hydrology and seasonality of wetlands and water bodies in the HPAI risk analysis is also discussed in relation to the presumed dry season aggregation of wild waterfowl and aquatic poultry offering much scope for virus transmission.

The control of H5 or H7 mildly pathogenic avian influenza: A role for inactivated vaccine

Biosecurity is the first line of defence in the prevention and control of mildly pathogenic avian influenza (MPAI). Its use has been highly successful in keeping avian influenza (AI) out of commercial poultry worldwide. However, sometimes AI becomes introduced into poultry populations and, when that occurs, biosecurity again is the primary means of controlling the disease. There is agreement that routine serological monitoring, disease reporting, isolation or quarantine of affected flocks, application of strict measures to prevent the contamination of and movement of people and equipment, and changing flock schedules are necessities for controlling AI. There is disagreement as to the disposition of MPAI-infected flocks: some advocate their destruction and others advocate controlled marketing. Sometimes biosecurity is not enough to stop the spread of MPAI. In general, influenza virus requires a dense population of susceptible hosts to maintain itself. When there is a large population of susceptible poultry in an area, use of an inactivated AI vaccine can contribute to AI control by reducing the susceptibility of the population. Does use of inactivated vaccine assist, complicate or interfere with AI control and eradication? Yes, it assists MPAI control (which may reduce the risk of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI)) but, unless steps are taken to prevent it, vaccination may interfere with sero-epidemiology in the case of an HPAI outbreak. Does lack of vaccine assist, complicate or interfere with AI control and eradication? Yes, it assists in identification of sero-positive (convalescent) flocks in a HPAI eradication program, but it interferes with MPAI control (which in turn may increase the risk of emergence of HPAI). A number of hypothetical concerns have been raised about the use of inactivated AI vaccines. Infection of vaccinated flocks, serology complications and spreading of virus by vaccine crews are some of the hypothetical concerns. The discussion of these concerns should take place in a scientific framework and should recognize that control of MPAI reduces the risk of HPAI. That inactivated vaccines have reduced a flock's susceptibility to AI infection, have reduced the quantity of virus shed post-challenge, have reduced transmission and have markedly reduced disease losses, are scientific facts. The current regulations preventing vaccination against H5 or H7 MPAI have had the effect of promoting circulation of MPAI virus in commercial poultry and live poultry markets. In the absence of highly pathogenic avian influenza, there is no justification for forbidding the use of inactivated vaccine.