Fatality Risk Research Articles

Management of clozapine-associated neutropenia

SUMMARY Clozapine is the only evidence-based intervention for treatment-resistant schizophrenia. One of the drug's most well-known and potentially fatal adverse effects is agranulocytosis (severe neutropenia). Hence, regular blood tests are an essential component of clozapine treatment. This article presents a narrative review of the history, incidence, potential aetiology and management of clozapine-associated neutropenia. It gives an overview of clozapine monitoring requirements, including those for benign ethnic neutropenia. We point to the growing body of evidence that the risk of clozapine-induced agranulocytosis is mostly confined to the first year of treatment and that the risk of fatality is considerably lower than previously assumed. Given the absence of alternative evidence-based interventions for treatment-resistant schizophrenia, we suggest that rechallenging with clozapine should be considered in most patients with clozapine-associated mild to moderate neutropenia who do not respond to other treatments. A more careful risk–benefit analysis is needed in cases of severe neutropenia (agranulocytosis).

A Health Economic Analysis of Non-injectable Epinephrine Compared with Intramuscular Epinephrine

BackgroundNon-injectable epinephrine to treat allergic reactions addresses an unmet need. Intranasal epinephrine is approved and a sublingual form is under development. Inhaled epinephrine is poorly studied for anaphylaxis. These forms have unknown cost-effectiveness. ObjectiveThe aim of this research was to evaluate cost-effectiveness of commercially available non-injectable epinephrine compared with intramuscular epinephrine for treatment of anaphylaxis. MethodsMarkov cohort analyses evaluated the cost-effectiveness of non-injectable epinephrine forms. The base-case assumed exaggerated anaphylaxis fatality rates (50-fold increase) for using inhaled epinephrine given low certainty evidence in anaphylaxis, and deliberately reduced fatality risk for nasal or sublingual forms (10-fold reduction) theorizing higher adherence and early use during an allergic reaction. ResultsIn the base-case scenario, assuming a 10-fold decreased risk in peanut allergy fatality associated with intranasal or sublingual epinephrine treatment for a severe allergic reaction (net monetary benefit [NMB] $2,189,134) vs. intramuscular (IM) epinephrine use (NMB, 2,189,114), intranasal or sublingual epinephrine was the most cost-effective option (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $83,748/QALY), but only at a marginal annual cost of $4. IM epinephrine was cost-effective (ICER, $17,900/QALY) vs. inhaled epinephrine (NMB, $2,183,531), although inhaled epinephrine reached cost-effectiveness (Willingness To Pay [WTP $100,000/QALY]) if associated fatality risk fell below 2.5-fold. Substituting a single non-injectable form of epinephrine for a second injectable device (in patients prescribed two autoinjectors already) would be cost-effective; however, adding a supplemental non-injectable device was not cost-effective, even assuming a 10-fold risk reduction with multiple device carriage (ICER $858,462). ConclusionNon-injectable routes of epinephrine can be cost-effective options provided fatality risk is not significantly elevated. Carriage of redundant epinephrine autoinjectors with non-injectable forms is not cost-effective if associated with excess cost of redundant device packs.

Characteristics of the drinking habits of people who overdose over-the-counter drugs: Insights from a nationwide Japanese survey.

To analyze the drinking habits of individuals who overdosed on over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, such as cough suppressants, antitussives, antipyretic analgesics, and combination cold medications, in Japan. This cross-sectional study analyzed data collected from 2881 participants through a national survey conducted in Japan in 2023. Through a self-administered questionnaire, the participants were categorized into OTC (overdosed OTC drugs in the past year) and control (did not overdose OTC drugs) groups. Variables related to drinking habits, social background, smoking habits, use of other medications, such as analgesics, tranquilizers, controlled drugs, and products containing high concentrations of caffeine, and perception of OTC drugs were compared between the two groups. Additionally, we matched the participants in the OTC (n = 25) and control (n = 100) groups by sex and age in a 1:4 ratio to assess these variables. Multivariate analyses were performed to examine how these factors are associated with drinking habits in individuals with OTC drug overdose. OTC drug overdose was prevalent among teenagers and those in their 50s, and was associated with habitual binge drinking and consumption of energy drinks. Those overdosing on OTC drugs obtained them mostly from drugstores and pharmacies. This is the first study to show a relationship between drinking habits and OTC drug overdose. An understanding of the characteristics of drinking habits in those who overdose on OTC drugs can help reduce fatal health risks in this population.

Impact of vaccination and testing levels on the COVID-19 waves

Introduction: Record numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths registered in Japan, Europe, and other countries in 2022 aroused questions about efficacy of vaccination and testing. The pandemic waves in Japan, Ukraine, USA, Hong Kong, mainland China, South Korea, the UK, New Zealand, Africa, and Europe in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be compared. Influence of vaccination and testing levels will be investigated. Methods: The smoothed daily numbers of new cases and deaths per capita, case fatality risks as the ratio of these characteristics and accumulated numbers of deaths and cases, the tests per case ratio, and the non-linear correlation were used. Results: As in other countries, new severe waves of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in Japan in 2022 despite of very high vaccination level. Non-linear correlation revealed, that the daily number of new cases drastically decreases with the increase of the tests per case ratio. Discussion: Increasing the test per case ratio and application of quarantine restrictions for the entire population, including vaccinated people, can be recommended to reduce the negative consequences of epidemics.

The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety

Abstract We examine how changes in the salience of workplace risk affect police behavior and public safety. Specifically, we investigate cases of police officer deaths while on duty. Officers respond to a peer death by decreasing arrest activity for one to two months, consistent with heightened fear. Reductions are largest for low-level arrests and are more pronounced in smaller cities. Crime does not increase on average during this period, nor do we observe crime spikes in cities with larger or longer arrest declines. While shocks to perceived fatality risk generate substantial enforcement responses, officer fear is unlikely to harm public safety.

Sleep-Related Sudden Unexpected Infant Death Among Infants Prenatally Substance Exposed.

Maternal substance use during pregnancy heightens risk of sudden unexpected infant death (SUID), including through unsafe sleep practices. Families impacted by substance use frequently experience disproportionate social drivers of poor health and family vulnerability likely contributory to fatality risk. Characteristics of sleep-related SUID among infants born prenatally substance exposed versus nonexposed were compared to identify targeted prevention opportunities. Using the Sudden Death in the Young Registry, we examined SUID with sleep-related death between 2015 and 2020 across infants prenatally exposed versus nonexposed. Distribution of sleep environment characteristics, social drivers of poor health, and family vulnerability factors were examined using descriptive statistics and χ2. Of 2010 infants who experienced sleep-related deaths, 283 (14%) were prenatally exposed. More than half of deaths involved an adult bed (52%, n = 1045) or surface sharing with an adult (53%, n = 1074). Supervisors of prenatally exposed infants were disproportionately impaired at infant death versus nonexposed (34%, n = 97 vs 16%, n = 279). Statistically significant associations between prenatal exposure history and vulnerability factors (insurance, child welfare involvement, intimate partner violence, health care barriers) were identified (P < .05). Sleep-related SUID across infants prenatally exposed versus nonexposed differ in sleep environment characteristics and contributory social vulnerability. Disproportionate sleep environment hazards (surface sharing, supervisor impairment) are identified among prenatally exposed infants that should compel targeted prevention efforts, including safe sleep messaging, discouraging surface sharing, and engaging support persons during impairment periods. Addressing social needs and family vulnerability are also paramount to increase access to health care, safe sleep education, and material resource provision.

Epidemiology of dwelling fires in England 2010–2023

Despite the number of dwelling fires having decreased around 4 % over the past decade, this incident type is still the leading source of fire-related fatality and casualty in the UK. This study reviews the prevalence of a range of risk factors in dwelling fires, their individual effects on casualties and fatalities, and explores the associations between different risk factors in incidents with at least one fire-related fatality or casualty from dwelling fires in England. MethodThis is a retrospective cohort secondary analysis of all dwelling fires in England attended by any of the 44 English Fire Rescue Services recorded on the Home Office Incident Record System between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2023. Bivariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to explore the relationship between risk factors recorded and the incidence of at least one fire-related fatality or casualty in dwelling fires. FindingsFatalities or casualties were most likely to occur in dwelling fires at night (OR: 1.78, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 1.80, p < 0.001), in properties with single occupancy (OR: 1.60, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 1.25, p < 0.001) and occupant(s) of pensionable age (OR: 1.57, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 1.54, p < 0.001) and when the extent of fire spread beyond the initial item ignited on arrival (OR: 2.34, p < 0.001; adjusted OR: 2.53, p < 0.001). The human behaviour associated with the highest relative risks of involving a fatality or casualty was identified as lack of attention when handling hot objects or naked fire (OR: 5.12, p < 0.001; adjusted OR 4.40, p < 0.001). ConclusionThis study provides valuable insight on the epidemiology of dwelling fire in England and will support fire prevention efforts of FRS including development a targeted approach for home fire safety visits. These findings will enable targeting of households at elevated risk of experiencing a dwelling fire and particularly those at increased risk of fatality or casualty due to dwelling fire. It will also support the refinement of fire prevention messages to raise awareness of the highest risk factors of injuries and fatalities in dwelling fires.

Predictive analytics of complex healthcare systems using deep learning based disease diagnosis model

Cancer is a life-threatening disease resulting from a genetic disorder and a range of metabolic anomalies. In particular, lung and colon cancer (LCC) are among the major causes of death and disease in humans. The histopathological diagnoses are critical in detecting this kind of cancer. This diagnostic testing is a substantial part of the patient’s treatment. Thus, the recognition and classification of LCC are among the cutting-edge research regions, particularly in the biological healthcare and medical fields. Earlier disease diagnosis can significantly reduce the risk of fatality. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models are used to hasten these cancer analyses, allowing researcher workers to analyze a considerable proportion of patients in a limited time and at a low price. This manuscript proposes the Predictive Analytics of Complex Healthcare Systems Using the DL-based Disease Diagnosis Model (PACHS-DLBDDM) method. The proposed PACHS-DLBDDM method majorly concentrates on the detection and classification of LCC. At the primary stage, the PACHS-DLBDDM methodology utilizes Gabor Filtering (GF) to preprocess the input imageries. Next, the PACHS-DLBDDM methodology employs the Faster SqueezeNet to generate feature vectors. In addition, the convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) approach is used to classify LCC. To optimize the hyperparameter values of the CNN-LSTM approach, the Chaotic Tunicate Swarm Algorithm (CTSA) approach was implemented to improve the accuracy of classifier results. The simulation values of the PACHS-DLBDDM approach are examined on a medical image dataset. The performance validation of the PACHS-DLBDDM model portrays the superior accuracy value of 99.54% over other DL models.

Relationship between lactate levels and 28-day mortality in pediatric sepsis: results from the pediatric intensive care database

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum lactate levels at admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and the clinical outcomes of children with sepsis.MethodsWe used the Pediatric Intensive Care (PIC) database to identify 288 pediatric patients with sepsis. We analyzed the relationship between lactate levels and hospital and ICU mortality in sepsis by establishing a segmented multivariable Cox regression model. We also conducted subgroup analysis as well as analyzed the restricted cubic spline curves.ResultsAfter adjusting for all potential confounding factors, an increase of 1 mmol/L in lactate levels was found to be associated with an 17% rise in the 28-day hospital mortality risk among sepsis patients (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08–1.27, P = 0.0002). When considering lactate as a categorical variable, the mortality risk of patients with lactate levels ≥ 2.2 mmol/L was significantly increased (HR: 3.61, 95% CI: 1.24–10.54, P = 0.0189). The restricted cubic spline curve analysis revealed a nonlinear correlation between lactate and 28-day mortality, with an inflection point at 2.2 mmol/L. Similar findings were also observed in the assessment of secondary outcomes.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates a non-linear correlation between lactate levels and 28-day mortality in pediatric sepsis, with a critical threshold of 2.2mmol/l for lactate levels in septic patients. Early assessment of lactate levels is recommended for children with sepsis to facilitate prompt intervention and mitigate the risk of fatality.

Pedalling Towards Improved Well-being

Rapid urbanisation and population growth in Delhi have led to a significant increase in the demand for transport infrastructure. However, a traditional adherence to car-centric development in Indian cities has contributed to escalating road injuries and degraded urban settings, exposing pedestrians and cyclists to a fatality risk of around 40 times higher than car users. To address these challenges, strategies like Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) are crucial in promoting sustainable mobility. Despite its proven effectiveness globally, the influence of NMT on the Quality of Life (QoL), especially on the youth (aged 15-29 years) in the Indian context remains unexplored. This paper investigates a recent integration of NMT infrastructure on one of Delhi’s most accident-prone roads through space redistribution. The paper gathers infrastructure assessment factors and physical, social, mental and economic well-being indicators from existing literature and user perceptions on-site. Based on user perceptions, these are correlated, followed by a quantitative study of the influence of each factor on its corresponding indicator using positive responses before and after transformation. The study emphasises key factors that must be addressed while revamping public streets to enhance the health and well-being of young individuals. It suggests that layout quality and lighting significantly improve safety and comfort. Yet the design compromises safety due to a lack of city-level and neighbourhood continuity, and intersections with the high-speed road, resulting in a low rating for physical well-being. A composite well-being score is calculated to illustrate the extent of impact on QoL. Insights derived from the case of Delhi offer a practical framework for other Indian cities seeking to enhance their urban landscapes. The paper emphasises the perspectives of youth on quality well-being, shows how different design features act toward achieving a high QoL, and intends to nudge a shift toward pedestrian-friendly cities.

Impact of Reductive Stress on Human Infertility: Underlying Mechanisms and Perspectives.

Antioxidants have a well-established effect on general health and are essential in preventing oxidative damage to cells by scavenging free radicals. Free radicals are thought to be neutralized by these substances, which include polyphenols, β-carotene, and vitamins C and E, reducing cellular damage. On the other hand, recent data indicates that consuming excessive amounts of antioxidants may have side effects. Apoptosis and cell signaling are two beneficial physiological processes that are affected by excessive supplementation. Other negative effects include paradoxical enhancement of oxidative stress and unbalanced cellular redox potential. Overdosing on particular antioxidants has been associated with increased medication interactions, cancer progression, and fatality risks. Additionally, the complex impacts they may have on fertility might be both useful and adverse, depending on the quantity and duration of usage. This review delves into the dual role of antioxidants and emphasizes the importance of employing antioxidants in moderation. Antioxidant overconsumption may disrupt the oxidative balance necessary for normal sperm and oocyte function, which is one of the potential negative effects of antioxidants on fertility in both males and females that are also investigated. Although modest usage of antioxidants is generally safe and useful, high levels of antioxidants can upset hormonal balance, impair sperm motility, and negatively impact the outcomes of assisted reproductive technologies (ART). The findings emphasize the need to use antioxidant supplements in a balanced way, the importance of further research to optimize their use in fertility treatments, and the importance of supporting reproductive health to avoid adverse effects.

A place-based spatial analysis of racial inequities in overdose in St. Louis County Missouri, United States

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to identify place features associated with increased risk of drug-involved fatalities and generate a composite score measuring risk based on the combined effects of features of the built environment. MethodsWe conducted a geospatial analysis of overdose data from 2022 to 2023 provided by the St. Louis County Medical Examiner's Office to test whether drug-involved deaths were more likely to occur near 54 different place features using Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM). RTM was used to identify features of the built environment that create settings of heightened overdose risk. Risk was estimated using Relative Risk Values (RRVs) and a composite score measuring Relative Risk Scores (RRS) across the county was produced for drugs, opioids, and stimulants, as well as by Black and White decedents. ResultsIn the model including all drugs, deaths were more likely to occur in close proximity to hotels/motels (RRV=39.65, SE=0.34, t-value=10.81 p<.001), foreclosures (RRV=4.42, SE=0.12, t-value = 12.80, p<.001), police departments (RRV=3.13, SE=0.24, t-score=4.86, p<.001), and restaurants (RRV=2.33, SE=0.12, t-value=7.16, p<.001). For Black decedents, deaths were more likely to occur near foreclosures (RRV=9.01, SE=0.18, t-value =11.92, p<.001), and places of worship (RRV= 2.51, SE=0.18, t-value = 11.92, p<.001). For White decedents, deaths were more likely to occur in close proximity to hotels/motels (RRV=38.97, SE=0.39, t-value=9.30, p<.001) foreclosures (RRV=2.57, SE=0.16, t-value =5.84, p<.001), restaurants (RRV=2.52, SE=0.17, t-value=5.33, p<.001) and, auto painting/repair shops (RRV=0.04, SE=0.18, t-value =3.39, p<.001). ConclusionThese findings suggest that places of worship, the hospitality industry, and housing authorities may be physical features of the environment that reflect social conditions that are conducive to overdose. The scaling up of harm reduction strategies could be enhanced by targeting places where features are co-located.

A thermo-physiologically consistent approach for studying the heat-health nexus with hierarchical generalized additive modelling: Application in Athens urban area (Greece)

The significance of the thermo-physiological determinants of heat-related deaths has been recognized since antiquity. Still, the impact of heat on human health in the modern era is repeatedly assessed in the epidemiological literature based solely on the environmental drivers of heat stress, primarily using aggregated daily metrics of air temperature. Going beyond this simplified approach, here we showcase a prototype heat-health modelling method that incorporates thermo-physiological principles and accounts for variability across different regions and populations, using the advanced human-biometeorological mPET (modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) index. This novel approach is based on a hierarchical general additive modelling framework. By applying the framework in the vulnerable to heat stress Athens urban area in Greece, we demonstrate, for the first time in epidemiological terms, that fatal heat-related risk is strongly associated with daylong (> 6 h) strong heat stress exposure. We also show that atmospherically and thermo-physiologically driven location- and population-specific variations in exposure, as well as short-term acclimatization, contribute to heat-effect occurrence and modification. These novel outcomes assist in establishing links between environmental epidemiological and thermo-physiological research. This is of great importance for supporting robust and effective public health interventions, especially in cities, which are particularly heat stress susceptible.

Safety of hepatitis E vaccine in pregnancy: an emulated target trial following a mass reactive vaccination campaign in Bentiu internally displaced persons camp, South Sudan

Epidemic forms of hepatitis E cause high mortality among pregnant people, with case fatality risks over 30% and adverse fetal outcomes. In 2022, the first mass reactive vaccination campaign against hepatitis E was conducted in South Sudan with the HEV239 vaccine. We aimed to assess whether vaccination against hepatitis E in pregnancy increases the risk of fetal loss in a cohort of vaccinated and unvaccinated pregnant people. In this emulated target trial, an exhaustive pregnancy census was conducted in Bentiu internally displaced persons camp after the second of three vaccination rounds. Women and girls aged 14-45 years with no current jaundice or acute illness were eligible for participation. Individuals who consented were revisited 28 days after their delivery date to document the pregnancy outcome. We used an emulated target trial framework to address biases inherent in observational studies. We matched vaccinated to unvaccinated participants on age, gestational age, and vaccination propensity score and estimated cumulative incidence functions for fetal loss in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women in a competing risks framework using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Between May 16 and June 30, 2022, 3421 participants were enrolled and followed up for inclusion in analysis. Among 2741 women who had a pregnancy outcome after the start of the vaccination campaign, 67 (2·4%) were vaccinated before conception, 2036 (74·3%) were vaccinated during pregnancy, and 638 (23·2%) were not vaccinated. Among the 2407 women retained in the matched analyses, the cumulative risk of fetal loss among individuals vaccinated during pregnancy was 7·2% (95% CI 5·6-8·7) compared with 6·1% (3·7-9·2) among unvaccinated individuals, implying a risk ratio of 1·2 (95% CI 0·7-1·9). No evidence of increased risk of fetal loss was found among individuals vaccinated during pregnancy. Médecins Sans Frontières.

Are migrant workers at greater risk of workplace deaths? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Globally, 170 million individuals migrate for work. Yet, evidence on their mortality risk remains unclear. Our aim was to synthesize global evidence on migrant worker mortality risk compared to local workers and to identify the multiple intersecting social determinants of mortality. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature which reported on mortality outcome of migrant workers. Studies published between 1 Jan 2000 to 17 Jan 2023 in English were searched in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and Ovid Global Health. Meta-analysis using random effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates and narrative synthesis was used to develop a data-driven framework on intersectional social determinants. Results Out of 11,495 identified records, 44 were included, of which 11 were pooled in meta-analyses. The combined migrant worker death count was 44,338, with data from 16 countries, including migrants from agriculture, construction, and service industries. Compared to local workers, migrant workers had a higher risk of fatal occupational injury (pooled RR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.22-2.38, I² = 99.4%), and a lower risk of all-cause mortality (pooled RR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.88-0.99, I² = 90.7%). Key social determinants associated with increased mortality risk were either migration-related (e.g. lower language proficiency, undocumented status) or labour-related (e.g. precarious employment, labour migration policies) interacting over migrant workers’ life course. Conclusions As the largest evidence synthesis to date, these findings indicate that migrant workers have higher fatal occupational injury rates than local workers, indicating the need for tailored protections for migrant workers. These data confirm that the all-cause mortality advantage observed in migrant populations applies to the working population. Future interventions should be designed to address both migration- and labour-related determinants of migrant worker health. Key messages • Migrant workers have a higher risk of workplace fatality despite being generally healthier than local workers, explained by structural determinants such as precarious employment. • Future interventions must address migration- and labour-related social determinants of health at structural levels, such as extending labour protection laws to migrant workers.

Cardiovascular diseases risk assessment: the Italian Health Examination Survey 2023 - CUORE Project

Abstract Background The reduction of NCDs premature mortality is pursued by the WHO; risk conditions targets are recommended as well as population-level monitoring of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The Italian Ministry of Health (MoH) has strengthened prevention/health promotion and supported periodic CVD risk assessment through national health examination surveys (HESs), funded by the MoH-CCM and conducted within the CUORE Project. Methods In 2023 a new HES started including the 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD risk assessment based on knowledge of sex, age, smoking habit, measured systolic blood pressure and fasting total and HDL serum cholesterol, and presence of diabetes (on measured fasting serum glycemia and/or treatment) and anti-hypertensive therapy. Up to now, data from random samples of residents in 7 Regions (of 20 regions) distributed in North, Centre and South of Italy, aged 35-69 years, without previous CVD, are available (585 men, 617 women). Determinations were assayed by a central lab. CUORE Project functions developed on and for the Italian adults were used. Results Mean values of the CVD risk assessment resulted 6.9% (95% CI: 6.3-7.4) in men and 2.3% (2.1-2.5) in women. For men aged 35-44 years risk was 1.6% (1.5-1.8), for 45-54 years 3.8% (3.5-4.2), for 55-64 years 10.0% (9.0-10.9), for 65-69 years 17.6% (16.4-18.9); for women was 0.5% (0.4-0.6), 1.0% (0.9-1.1), 3.3% (2.9-3.7) and 6.0% (5.5-6.6) respectively. Prevalence of CVD risk less than 5% was 57% (49-64) in men and 88% (84-93) in women, of 10-15% risk were 22% (15-28) of men and 9% (5-14) of women, of 15-20% risk were 5% (1.6-8.0) of men and 0% of women, of over 20% risk were 2% (0-3.6) of men and 0% of women. Conclusions Compared to 2008, these data showed stable mean levels of CVD risk both in men and women at any age-classes and stable prevalence of CVD risk classes. CVD risk perception represents a challenge in primary prevention especially for young age groups and women. Key messages • In the Italian general population, CVD risk assessment remained stable compared to 15 years ago. • CVD risk perception represents a challenge in primary prevention.

SCORE2-ASIA risk prediction algorithms: revised models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

Abstract Background Most current cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools have been developed and validated solely in Western countries, while there are significant differences between Asian and Western populations in risk factor distributions and CVD incidence patterns. This study outlines the recalibration and validation of the SCORE2-ASIA model to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD risk among adults aged 40-69 years with no previous CVD or diabetes in the Asia Pacific Region. Methods The sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted SCORE2 models were systematically recalibrated to reflect CVD incidence in the Asian clinical practice. We defined four risk regions in Asia according to country-specific CVD mortality rates (low risk (&amp;lt;100 CVD deaths per 100,000), moderate risk (100 to &amp;lt;150 CVD deaths per 100,000), high risk (150 to &amp;lt;300 CVD deaths per 100,000), and very high risk (≥300 CVD deaths per 100,000)). Models were recalibrated using region representative data on expected incidences and risk factor distributions, utilising the methodological approaches developed in recalibration of the SCORE2 models for Europe. The SCORE-ASIA model was externally validated in all risk regions using population-based cohort data from independents cohort data. To ensure the European coefficients well applied to Asian populations, the SCORE2 model derivation process was repeated in external validation cohorts. Results Region-specific incidence was estimated using country-specific data on CVD mortality and data on the ratio of fatal to total events on 9,496,212 individuals from 5 Asian countries (496,212 CVD events). For external validation, we analysed data from 12 additional cohorts in 13 Asian countries (4,775,976 individuals, 176,011 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, the pooled external validation C-index was 0.709 (95%CI 0.676-0.743). In the nationally representative CDMD cohort from Singapore (population completely separate from recalibration data) there was adequate agreement between predicted and observed risks. Risk factor coefficients derived in Asian populations were largely similar to the original SCORE2 coefficients, indicating that the original SCORE2 coefficients apply well to the Asian population. Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across Asian risk regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old non-smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3mmol/L, ranged from 12% for men in low-risk countries to 26% for men in very-high-risk countries, and from 7% for women in low-risk countries to 26% for women in very-high-risk countries. Conclusions The SCORE2-ASIA model accurately predicts 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asian countries after systematic recalibration, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia Pacific Region.

Adherence to a sustainable diet, measured via the EAT-Lancet Index, predicts incident short-term and long-term cardiovascular disease incidence: the ATTICA study (2002-2022)

Abstract Background/Introduction The World Heart Federation has estimated that air pollution was the second most fatal modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), causing approximately 5 million CVD deaths in 2021. Diets and food systems can affect the environment; however, research scarcely focuses on the association between planet-healthy dietary habits and CVD risk. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adherence to a sustainable diet and CVD incidence during 20 years of follow-up. Methods Participants initially free-of-CVD from the ATTICA study were used (n=1,958). CVD events were assessed at baseline and at all follow-ups (i.e., 2002, 2012, 2022) according to WHO-ICD-10. Adherence to a sustainable diet was assessed via the EAT-Lancet Index (EAT-LI) (Education and Agriculture Together-EAT) (range: 0-42) based on the published algorithm. Results CVD incidence was 16.2% (n=317 incident cases) at 10-years and 35.3% (n=691 incident cases) at 20-years. Mean EAT-LI was: 17.3 (6.7) for the total sample. EAT-LI was lower in those that had a CVD event during the follow-up, i.e., EAT-LI: 10.5 (6.3) vs 18.5 (5.9) at 10-years (p&amp;lt;0.001) and 10.9 (6.4) vs 20.8 (3.8) at 20-years (p&amp;lt;0.001), in participants with and without a CVD event, respectively. In multi-adjusted analyses, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index trajectories, lifestyle trajectories, and clinical factors (diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension), higher adherence to a sustainable diet was inversely associated with CVD risk at a short-term and a long-term period (i.e., at 10 and 20 years). Specifically, per 1/42 increase in the EAT-Lancet index, CVD risk was reduced by 11% [Hazard ratio-HR: 0.89, 95%Confidence Interval: 0.86-0.93] and by 16% [HR: 0.84, 95%CI: 0.80-0.89] at 10 and 20 years, respectively. Conclusion Future guidelines for CVD prevention should take into account the sustainable nature of dietary habits, to efficiently nourish the growing world population, and concomitantly protect heart and planet health.

Correlation of exercise blood pressure levels with concomitant cardiovascular disease.

Hypertension is a fatal but preventable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and an important cause of death from cardiovascular disease. Exercise training has a definite clinical effect on blood pressure control. However, inappropriate exercise is ineffective and may also cause disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible factors influencing blood pressure level in an exercise treadmill test and its relationship with accompanying clinical diseases. Five hundred sixty-four patients who underwent exercise treadmill test were selected and divided into the abnormal exercise blood pressure group (n = 156, age 60.46 ± 9.2 years) and normal exercise blood pressure group (n = 408, age 56.57 ± 8.8 years) according to whether the peak exercise systolic blood pressure was more than or equal to 180 mm Hg. General clinical data and associated clinical diseases were collected from both groups. The prevalence of hypertension and coronary atherosclerotic heart disease in the abnormal exercise blood pressure group was significantly higher than that in the normal exercise blood pressure group (all P < .05). At the same time, the smoking rate and glycohemoglobin level of the patients with abnormal exercise blood pressure were significantly increased (all P < .05), but there was no statistically significant difference in age, sex, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and other indicators between the 2 groups (all P > .05). Patients with abnormal exercise blood pressure response have a higher prevalence of hypertension and coronary heart disease. Exercise blood pressure level may be an important factor affecting patients' cardiovascular prognosis.

Case–control study of fatal bicycle crashes in peri-urban areas of Delhi

ObjectivesThere is a lack of evidence on interventions to improve the safety of cycling use in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the impact of road design and traffic characteristics...