Risk Mitigation Project Research Articles

Diverse Uses of Multi-Purpose Cyclone Shelters In India

India employs a strategy to reduce the probability of tropical cyclones and ready for them through placing Multi-Purpose Cyclone Shelters across its coastline. These shelters are meant to safeguard vulnerable populations throughout storms and to function as school, community halls, etc. while not really in use. This describes in detail purpose of these multi-use cyclone shelters, which also include providing safe shelter for inhabitants of cyclone-affected areas in addition to individuals who are unable evacuate for a wide range of reasons, such like infrastructure problems. In India as well as other south Asian nations, like that as Bangladesh, a vulnerable region is evacuated by transferring at-risk populace into built specifically outdoor structures called as "cyclone shelters." This is frequently discovered in or adjacent to one's neighbourhood, though sometimes they may be a significant distance away. In short, it was initially created in Bangladesh, then adopted in India, and now we'll take a closer look at Odisha, which now has constructed these cyclone shelters for cyclone mitigation. A primary goal of the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project is to make sure that each and every home within 10 kilometres of the coastline has accessibility to a cyclone shelter that is no more than 2.5 kilometres away, and that total number of cyclone shelters matches to the area's in need of accommodation. The thought of a "horizontal evacuation" is hardly a possibility for nations with huge populations, inadequate road infrastructure, and lacking transportation services. Instead, it is considered essential to relocate to specifically constructed cyclone shelters located within the neighbourhood. The decision maker sees the particular strategy much more interesting since it takes less time for clearance or to finish an evacuation. In these circumstances, approval is essential because evacuation decisions are often postponed. Construction of the cyclone shelters was a wise move because it is entangled with other aspects, including the accuracy of meteorological forecasts, public willingness to cooperate with mandatory evacuations inside the lack of weather warnings, dissatisfaction in the event of a non-strike, etc.

Community-based climate change adaptation and disaster risk mitigation in the Mekong Delta by the transdisciplinary approach

The article is based on data from the research program "Greater Mekong Sub-region Flood and Drought Risk Management and Mitigation Project (ADB-GMS1)" jointly implemented by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the Vietnam Institute of Water Resources Research in Tien Giang and Dong Thap province. The results show that, in recent years, due to the increasingly severe global climate change, the intensity of various types of natural disasters occurs more frequently, irregularly and with greater intensity. This has greatly affected the production, daily life and properties of the people in the vulnerable areas. To reduce the impact of various types of disasters on people living in vulnerable areas, it is necessary to combine two types of solutions in disaster prevention, namely construction solutions and non- construction solutions. In which, non-construction solutions play a very important role, namely, people living in communities are considered as the main actors in preventing and mitigating disaster risks occurring in the community.

Sustainable Transitions of Urban Projects towards Mitigation and Adaptation Projects for Climate Change: The case of Medellin

The research investigates the relationship between cities and climate change by examining how urban projects shifted to mitigation and adaptation for climate change at an urban scale. The article is based upon two complementary approaches, a multilevel analysis from sustainable transitions theory and a framework of interrelations of urban mitigation and adaptation projects. The methodological design is a case study; we analyzed the case of Medellin that, at the beginning of the 2000's, implemented public transport projects, urban parks, educational and cultural facilities, and risk mitigation projects in the surrounding hills. The main findings are that specific projects at an urban scale are operating as niches or experiments, taking advantage of windows of opportunities, and triggering changes in the urban design routines, framing a new sociotechnical system. It is found that governance, leadership, teams of experts and urban planners are drivers for the transition of urban projects, which were initially designed for social and transport needs, to urban mitigation projects for climate change. At the same time, urban mitigation projects such as the Metropolitan Green Belt are transiting to adaptation projects for climate change. The conclusion for this case study is that while most urban projects retain their traditional role, a new generation of projects with mitigation and adaptation features is emerging in the context of climate change. This article contributes to expanding the empirical analysis of the literature on the theory of sustainable transitions specifically related to cities and urban projects. The theoretical framework of urban projects and their linkages with climate change are enriched. The conceptual framework of the analysis is replicable and useful for practitioners in the field of urban design and researchers interested in comparisons to identify patterns or typologies. In addition, the article contributes to sensitize actors involved in public urban design policies in their roles as managers of transitions.

Participatory Approaches to Urban Flood Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Projects: A Scoping Review of the Global South Evidence

Participatory approaches to urban flood risk adaptation initiatives have been prominent amongst developed countries, particularly in Europe, since the 2000s and are now steadily on the rise in the Global South. In this article we focus on how international examples of community-based participatory research and practice have managed flooding risk mitigation and adaptation strategies, specifically in the Global South. While top-down resistance-based approaches that include infrastructure, technology, laws and regulations offer invaluable information for urban planners and policy-makers they however fall short on revealing the perceptions and behaviours that shape individual, household and community adaptation decision-making process. In addition, these top-down approaches tend to take a long-term view of change with new programmes or policies, implemented over time, failing to tackle current challenges. The aim of this scoping review is therefore to map out the key concepts underpinning this research area and the main sources of evidence addressing community-based flooding monitoring, mitigation and adaptation strategies to uncover practices that facilitate participatory models of working between researchers, urban developers/designers, government institutions, and local communities. Finally, this evidence-based synthesis serves as background to the presentation of a Mexican case-study in which a community-based participatory approach is employed to support a co-production process for the identification of local flood risk management options.

The strange case of earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul

As an aspiring global city, Istanbul is at the crossroads of capital, political struggle, and socioeconomic transformation. Unfortunately, Istanbul is also at the crossroads of major active fault lines. This paper analyzes earthquake risk mitigation planning for the megacity since the last big seismic catastrophe of the Marmara Earthquakes in 1999 that hit the region, including Istanbul. We use the concept of riskscape to explore the political and technocratic construction of seismic risk and how this implies different experiences of risk to investment portfolios, the state, and the ordinary people living in the city. Our empirical analyses focus on the ‘Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project’ (ISMEP), launched as a World Bank project in 2005 and still ongoing as of 2020. We argue that the ISMEP project epitomizes the ‘strange case’ of earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul due to its organizational complexity, financial expansion over its lifetime, and progression as a megaproject sponsored by international development funding despite its contraction in institutional targets. Our findings suggest that this centralized and non-transparent earthquake risk mitigation approach in Istanbul creates a fragmented riskscape for the megacity. The earthquake risk continues to threaten millions of inhabitants’ lives and livelihoods while making room for speculative real estate development.

Shifting from a Risk Mitigation Project to an Adaptation Project: The case of Curitiba’s Lagoon Parks

Drawing upon the sustainability transitions theory, the paper aims to explore how the risk mitigation project of Curitiba’s lagoon parks shifted to adaptation urban projects in the context of tackling climate change. “Urban acupuncture” was the pioneering strategy adopted by Curitiba’s Municipality through the introduction, more than 40 years ago, of a limited number of low cost projects in some natural lagoons as innovative experiments that operate as a niche in a multi-level perspective. The projects acted as a way of resisting the pressure of urban intervention trends focused on transforming natural landscapes into new built-up urban areas, or intervention in natural ecosystems with water drainage and engineering solutions. These experiments and their synergy now constitute urban parks with a leverage impact on the capacity the city has to adapt to climate change, creating tension on the institutionalized regime. Through this case study, we examine the importance of governance, leadership and urban networks professionals in addition to technical features of the projects. The findings suggest that a top-down strategy, long time frame, and the exclusion of community participation have a limited likelihood of replicability and are discouraged nowadays in public urban policies. The paper contributes to highlighting the link between experimental urban acupuncture and sustainability transitions through incremental projects in natural areas for climate change adaptation. It contributes to the understanding of transitions in the southern hemisphere where institutions struggle with tight budgets, incremental interventions and specific nondemocratic contexts, and raises concerns about the critical role of governance.

Influence of risk mitigation measures on international construction project success criteria – a survey of Indian experiences

Despite globalisation bringing diverse opportunities for construction firms from developing countries, executing international construction projects entails many risks. Several past studies illustrate the risks faced by firms in international construction projects and recommend various risk mitigation measures without revealing their effect on project success criteria. In order to fill this knowledge gap, this study aims to test the influence of identified risk mitigation measures on project success criteria. To achieve this, nine risk mitigation measures and three project success criteria—cost performance, schedule performance and firm’s performance—were identified through a literature review. After verifying the identified risk mitigation measures and project success criteria with a preliminary study, a questionnaire was administered to experts who possess adequate knowledge in international construction projects. The collected data from 105 questionnaires were analyzed, grouped and modelled using factor analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM). Application of factor analysis to identify the correlated risk mitigation measures extracted three risk mitigation factors, namely pre-project planning, local participation and contract selection. Furthermore, the influence of risk mitigation factors on project success criteria is hypothesized and tested using SEM. Amongst the identified risk mitigation factors, local participation emerges as the most influencing factor on project success criteria followed by contract selection and pre-project planning. The generated model would enable construction firms from India and similar developing countries to focus on identified risk mitigation factors to achieve improved project success criteria and project management success.

Impact of Facility Renewal Deferment on Risk to Royal British Columbia Museum, Canada, Collections

ABSTRACT The Royal British Columbia Museum (RBCM), Canada, houses a collection of almost 7 million artifacts, archival records, and natural history specimens. Three comprehensive collection risk assessments over the past decade have resulted in improvements to the physical environments of the collections as well as new policies and procedures to reduce risk. However, there remain ongoing risks that can only be mitigated through major facility renewal. The last collection risk assessment, completed in 2016, was revisited to review the data and build a defensible case for funding to replace the RBCM's on-site collection storage facilities. Changes to overall collections risk is a complex function of collection development and use trends, evolving risk factors both internal and external to the museum, a growing understanding of the relationship between risks and preservation, in addition to reduction due to risk mitigation projects and building systems aging and wearing out. A defensible method for illustrating the facilities-related risks over time involves estimating the expected loss of individual collection items or loss in value of a group of items that may occur if a major facility upgrade or redevelopment is not realized in the near future. Risk assessment data for representative collection units were reviewed to differentiate risk due to permanent facility characteristics versus more active controls, operations budget controlled risk versus capital budget controlled risk, and collection management-controlled risk versus facility management-controlled risk. This enabled the risk model to isolate risks that could only be mitigated through major facility upgrades. Change in collection value was expressed as Object Equivalents Lost (OEL) and its compliment Object Equivalents Remaining (OER). Projections into the future indicating the effect of varying facility renewal dates could then be clearly shown. Losses, when presented as numbers of items expected to be lost from the collection, become emotionally salient to persons in senior management and governance roles.

Key Oceanographic Characteristics of Cuviers Beaked Whale (Ziphius cavirostris) Habitat in the Gulf of Genoa (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean)

Cuvier’s beaked whale presence has been associated worldwide with continental slope and submarine canyons areas. In the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot of the species presence has been identified in the Genoa Canyon area, located in the Gulf of Genova (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean Sea). Within the framework of the NATO Marine Mammal Risk Mitigation Project, several research cruises have been conducted between 1999 and 2011 in the Ligurian Sea area. During these cruises depth profiles of temperature, salinity, sound velocity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence and turbidity as a function of depth were collected using a Conductivity, Temperature, Depth (CTD) and auxiliary sensors installed on a Rosette frame. Concurrently, Cuvier’s beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) presence was assessed through visual observations. The aim of this study was to investigate the environmental characteristics of a beaked whale habitat in the Genoa canyon area correlating beaked whale presence with the oceanographic variables. A Logistic Regression model was developed using the data collected during the oceanographic campaign carried out in summer 2002. Model accuracy was also evaluated in the same area based on the data collected 9 years later in summer 2011. The depth of the maximum dissolved oxygen (Depth Ox Max) turned out to be a significant predictor of beaked whale presence in the studied area. Higher presence probabilities of beaked whales were found associated to higher turbidities of deep-water layers in both the calibration and evaluation set. Results suggest dynamic predictors may act as proxy of macro-scale features that characterise beaked whale habitats. Particularly the depth the maximum oxygen concentration may be a tracer of the vertical exchanges of water masses (i.e., downwelling), transferring energy from the surface waters to the deep waters where beaked whales feed on their prey.

Critical Mitigation Element methodology: An approach to achieving consistent risk evaluation results

This paper introduces Critical Mitigation Element (CME) Methodology, an Occidental Oil and Gas Corporation (OOG) probability analysis methodology internally developed for the purpose of achieving consistent results when conducting risk evaluations throughout the company's worldwide upstream oil and gas operations. The methodology was developed as an efficient means of utilizing the strengths of Layer of Protection Analysis, LOPA. A CME is defined as a robust barrier (mitigation element) that reduces the probability by one level on the company's risk matrix or, in some cases, reduces the consequence level. In the past, OOG relied heavily on the industry historical approach to estimate event probability which resulted in very inconsistent estimations of event probability since the accuracy was based solely on the knowledge and experience of Process Hazards Review (PHR∗) team members. In order to address this issue, OOG developed its CME Methodology which is similar to a LOPA approach but much more simplified in terms of determining what credit can be taken to reduce event scenario probability. The OOG CME methodology limits the layer of protection credit to those mitigation elements provided in a list of approved CMEs. CMEs are independent layers of protection that must be highly reliable upon demand. CMEs must be supported by verifiable field and test programs that are required to ensure overall CME integrity. These supporting elements are termed Key Mitigation Elements (KMEs). By using this CME methodology, OOG has demonstrated much greater consistency across their corporate-wide risk profile. Since prioritization of risk mitigation projects is based on risk levels, consistency provides an effective basis for resource allocation. OOG's implementation of the CME methodology has resulted in significantly improved PHA∗ accuracy and consistency and, ultimately, a more efficient and effective risk management program.

Risk propagation and its impact on performance in food processing supply chain

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify various risk drivers which affect a food processing supply chain and to create a map of how those risk drivers propagate risks through the supply chain and impact important performance measures. Design/methodology/approach This study involves experts from food processing companies to elucidate the contextual relationships among the risk drivers and between risk drivers and performance measures. This is used to quantify the relationships and to determine the indirect and overall relationships applying Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modeling. Findings Three categories of risk drivers which Indian food processing companies need to pay maximum attention to minimize risks are identified. These are supplier dependency and contracting, supplier variability, visibility and traceability and manufacturing disruptions. Analysis shows that collaborating with suppliers and logistics service providers, developing mutually beneficial contracts with them while ensuring that adequate technology investments are made can significantly mitigate risks and consequently improve margins and lead to revenue growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been carried out with experts from large food processing companies in India, and hence, the results cannot be generalized across other types of food processing companies. Practical implications The proposed methodology can help understand the interrelationships between supply chain risks and between those risks and performance measures. Thus, it can help a food processing company to create business cases for specific supply chain risk mitigation projects. Originality/value This study is one of the earliest to create a comprehensive risk propagation map for food processing companies which helps in quantifying the impact the risk drivers have on each other and on performance measures.

How the World Bank manages social risks: implementation of the Social Risk Mitigation Project in Turkey

This paper aims to assess the World Bank’s social risk management approach to poverty by focusing on the implementation details of the Social Risk Mitigation Project in Turkey, a World Bank project that depends on this approach. The paper looks at the approach through the concept of neoliberal governmentality, as an attempt to produce responsible poor citizens during a period when the responsibility for providing social services is transferred to the market and the family. By using field research it demonstrates that, with the intervention of local factors, several unintended consequences emerge in the implementation of a social risk management project. The article concludes that these outcomes, although not planned or intended, have all been instrumental in depoliticising poverty and the poor in the country. Moreover, in spite of all the problems and dissatisfaction, thanks to the Bank’s own portrayal, this project has contributed to the image of the Bank as a development institution that achieves successes in its fight with poverty.

A World Bank Project Implemented by a Moderate Islamic Party: The Social Risk Mitigation Project in Turkey

This paper presents some related processes in Turkey which have been initiated or influenced by the World Bank's execution of the Social Risk Mitigation Project (SRMP). It argues that the Justice and Development Party (AKP), as a party that redefined social assistance as charity by incorporating Islamic values with neo-liberalism, benefited from the SRMP for increasing its public support. It also demonstrates how the AKP's use of this project for its political aims led to some unintended consequences, causing the production and spreading of discourses about the poor, the Kurdish population and the emergence of a culture of poverty in the country.

Participation in the Community Rating System of NFIP: Empirical Analysis of North Carolina Counties

To motivate flood insurance purchase and promote flood hazard awareness and mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) credits floodplain management activities and awards flood insurance premium discounts. CRS, however, has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception. The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence related to community decisions involving incentive-based flood risk mitigation projects. A number of hypotheses offered by previous researchers regarding factors that motivate local hazard management initiatives are tested through an examination of patterns in CRS participation across all 100 North Carolina counties from 1991 to 2002. Specifically, the influence of flood experience, hydrological risk, local capacity, and socioeconomic factors on county hazard mitigation decisions are examined. Results indicate that flood history and physical risk factors increase likelihood of local hazard mitigation adoption. Evidence is found that the probability of CRS participation is lower in counties with a greater proportion of senior citizens and greater level of education and that flood hazard mitigation activities at the county level are more likely when a greater number of nested of municipalities participate in CRS.

Non linear push over assessment of heritage buildings in Istanbul to define seismic risk

The objectives of the Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project are to improve Istanbul’s preparedness for a potential earthquake. Within this framework “Risk Assessment of Cultural Heritage Buildings” was designed to address the vulnerability of cultural assets, specifically buildings with global cultural heritage value. One of the components of the project was the vulnerability and risk assessment of 170 historical buildings. After a discussion of the choice of the most appropriate earthquake scenario, the methodology used for assessing the effects of local site conditions on the seismic performance of selected cultural heritage buildings is presented. The purpose is to estimate the earthquake characteristics on the ground surface based on the earthquake characteristics on the engineering bedrock outcrop obtained from the probabilistic and deterministic hazard studies. The site specific elastic design spectra for each site are then further manipulated to obtain site specific non linear displacement spectra, so that these can be directly compared with capacity curves for the buildings obtained by using plasticity based limit state analysis. The procedure for obtaining the capacity curves is described and the choice of the most appropriate level of ductility and the equivalent reduction coefficient are discussed. A procedure to evaluate performance points and to define safety factors based on lateral acceleration, drift or expected damage level, is presented. The process of arriving at a risk evaluation and hence recommendation for strengthening or otherwise, is finally highlighted with respect to two comparable case studies.

Participation in the Community Rating System of NFIP: An Empirical Analysis of North Carolina Counties

In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote flood hazard awareness and mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), credits floodplain management activities and awards flood insurance premium discounts. CRS, however, has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception. The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence related to community decisions involving incentive-based flood risk mitigation projects. We test a number of hypotheses offered by previous researchers regarding factors that motivate local hazard management initiatives through an examination of patterns in CRS participation across all 100 North Carolina counties from 1991 to 2002. Specifically, we examine the influence of flood experience, hydrological risk, local capacity, and socioeconomic factors on county hazard mitigation decisions. Results indicate that flood history and physical risk factors increase likelihood of local hazard mitigation adoption. We find evidence that the probability of CRS participation is lower in counties with a greater proportion of senior citizens and greater level of education, and that flood hazard mitigation activities at the county level are more likely when a greater number of nested of municipalities participate in CRS.

Risk mapping for sensitive species to underwater anthropogenic sound emissions: Model development and validation in two Mediterranean areas

Recent observations of cetacean mass strandings, coincident with anthropogenic sounds emissions, have raised concerns on the potential environmental impact of underwater noise. Cuvier’s beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) was reported in all the cited stranding events. Within the NATO Marine Mammal Risk Mitigation project (MMRM), multiple interdisciplinary sea trials have been conducted in the Mediterranean Sea with the objective of developing tools and procedures to mitigate the impact of underwater sound emissions. During these cruises, visual observations, passive acoustic detections and environmental data were collected. The aim of this study was to evaluate “a priori” predictions of Cuvier’s beaked whale presence in the Alboran Sea, using models developed in the Ligurian Sea that employ bathymetric and chlorophyll features as predictors. The accuracy of these predictions was found adequate and elements are given to account for the uncertainties associated to the use of models developed in areas different from their calibration site.

Efficiency evaluations with context-dependent and measure-specific data envelopment approaches: An application in a World Bank supported project

We evaluate the efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) in a World Bank supported Social Risk Mitigation Project (SRMP) in Turkey through context-dependent and measure-specific data envelopment analysis (DEA) approaches. The results suggest that the efficiency evaluations with context-dependent and measure-specific DEA play various roles in an organization such as setting attainable targets to DMUs, setting long and short term targets to DMUs separately, grouping of DMUs, and improving internal competition between DMUs. Four main contributions of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the study shows the applicability of context-dependent and measure-specific DEA methodologies in a World Bank supported large scale project to increase the effectiveness of the project. Secondly, it outlines some important managerial conclusions of context-dependent DEA clustering approach. Moreover, we propose an alternative approach for attractiveness scores computations in case of exogenous group formations. Finally, the study proposes and applies measure-specific version of context-dependent DEA approach.

Draining Tangjiashan Barrier Lake after Wenchuan Earthquake and the flood propagation after the dam break

Tangjiashan Barrier Lake is one of the largest barrier lakes caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Its risk analysis, emergency plan and effect of the emergency plan are introduced in this paper. The dam height of Tangjiashan Barrier Dam is about 105 m, and the reservoir storage capacity is 3.2×108 m3. When the dam broke the flood peak were estimated to be larger than 48000 m3/s, which might cause a enormous disaster to the downstream cities and residents. A discharge channel with 13 m deep and 8 m wide was drug, so that the water may flow out of the lake before the dam breaks. As a result, the drainage and risk mitigation project are successful. During the drainage process, the flood peak was about 6500 m3/s, and about 1.6×108 m3 of water was drained off and the residual reservoir capacity was only 8.97×107 m3. A new channel with average width 100 m was formed, which can bear floods of 200 years frequency. The successful experience and the collected data can be used to deal with the similar natural disasters in future.

Overwhelming health expenditures among the poor in a transition economy: A case study from Turkey

A primary goal of modern health systems is to protect citizens from catastrophic health expenditures. Today, health care spending is a significant cause of poverty and the poor are more vulnerable to catastrophic payments. Similar to other countries, Turkey is facing problems of poverty due recent economic crises and it has developed poverty alleviation programs with the support of international organizations such as the World Bank. In the literature, no studies have identified and measured catastrophic health expenditures among poor people in Turkey. This study included 92 households in the Etimesgut region of Ankara, with these households being in the priority group for assistance identified by the Social Risk Mitigation Project of the Social Solidarity Fund (SYDTF). In the study, households' socio-demographic characteristics, living standards, health status and situations regarding catastrophic health expenditures were examined via face-to-face interviews. The results of the study indicate that poverty, households' socio-demographic characteristics and living standards are strongly related. The poverty rate of female-headed households (61.33%) was greater than that of male-headed households (32.8%). Moreover, 125 household members (34.3%) had at least one chronic illness and/or disability, and 14 households (15.2%) were facing catastrophic health expenditures that constituted an average of 62.3% of their non-food expenditures. One conclusion of the study is that particularly in poor households, people can be protected from catastrophic health expenditures by reducing the health system's reliance on out-of-pocket payments and by providing more financial risk protection. If the poor are not protected, their increased health risks will create further financial and social burdens at both the community and government levels.