Risk In Australia Research Articles

'Why don't I need a colonoscopy?' A novel approach to communicating risks and benefits of colorectal cancer screening.

There is significant growth in demand for colonoscopies, with over 700,000 performed in Australia in 2012-13. For every one million Australians aged 50 years and older, 80,000 people at average risk of colorectal cancer are being over-screened with colonoscopy, and 29,000 people at increased risk are not having the colonoscopy they need. Using monitoring data from the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program and published data on colonoscopic screening, we have developed expected frequency trees (EFTs) to demonstrate projected outcomes of different colorectal cancer screening options for participants at different levels of colorectal cancer riskin Australia. The EFTs highlight the overall balance in favour of faecal occult blood screening for those at average risk in terms of fewer deaths and complications. This novel method of risk communication can be used to promote appropriate patient choice of colorectal cancer screening modality and potentially reduce the number of referrals for colonoscopy in patients who are not at increased risk of colorectal cancer.

New Zealand's risk premium

Interest rates in New Zealand are generally higher than in other industrialized economies. Do these higher interest rates imply lower investment and slow growth? I find that high interest rates in New Zealand, through much of the inflation targeting period, appear to have represented compensation for the risk of rare and extreme events, during which the New Zealand dollar was expected to depreciate. Similar factors appear to explain Australia's risk premium, yet Australia has had a higher level of investment and stronger growth. Therefore, I attribute the differing economic performance of the two countries to other structural differences.

'It was the Most Beautiful Country I have Ever Seen': The Role of Somali Narratives in Adapting to a New Country

Refugees are known to use narrative and draw on their memories of a homeland when displaced/in exile in an unfamiliar country to re-affirm their identities, and build a life in the new country. Nevertheless, little is known about how Somali refugees distinctively construct narratives in a new country as a means of coping in the present. In analysing narratives of Somali refugees who attended educational events in Melbourne, Australia, we examinedstories and memories as they relate to adapting to the new country. Drawing on a qualitative, mainly in-depth interview-based study with Somali parents and key informants, we argue that a collective re-imagining of Somali society is a key to the way people go about coping and managing current change. Despite experiencing the intense social disruption of civil war, idyllic stories of past family and community life are told, providing both a contrast to disconnection, individualism and risk inAustralia, as well as a thread back to a mythical Somalia.We argue that the particular narrative constructions put forward by participants are an important form of agency, counterbalancing narratives of oppressed refugees in a new country.

Assessing synoptic wind hazard in Australia utilising climate-simulated wind speeds

Severe wind is one of the major natural hazards in Australia. The component contributors to economic loss in Australia with regards to severe wind are tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and subtropical (synoptic) storms. Geoscience Australia's Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) is developing mathematical models to study a number of natural hazards including wind hazard. This paper discusses wind hazard under current and future climate conditions using RIAG's synoptic wind hazard model. This model can be used in non-cyclonic regions of Australia (Region A in the Australian-New Zealand Wind Loading Standard; AS/NZS 1170.2:2011) where the wind hazard is dominated by synoptic and thunderstorm gust winds.

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.

A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: Risk ratings of hazard–product pairings

A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard–product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. ‘High’ risk hazard–product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. ‘Medium’ risk hazard–product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final “flash” heating. Identified ‘low’ risk hazard–product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

Mastering Risk: Environment, Markets and Politics in Australian Economic History.

This work interprets Australia's economic experience as a process of mastering a constantly changing risk environment. It begins by focusing on the aboriginal experience and progresses through to current attitudes, institutions, and patterns of development--showing how they have been shaped by Australia's risk environment.

Lipids and lipoproteins in patients undergoing coronary‐artery surgery

Fasting blood samples were obtained from 290 patients who were undergoing elective coronary-artery graft procedures, and cholesterol, triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were measured. The 1983 National Heart Foundation of Australia's Risk Factor Prevalence Study was used as a source of age- and sex-matched "control" data. Of these patients, 80% had cholesterol levels of greater than 5.5 mmol/L; in 55% of patients, the level exceeded 6.5 mmol/L. Only 4% of patients who received a graft showed hypertriglyceridaemia alone (triglyceride level, greater than 2 mmol/L). Combined hyperlipidaemia (cholesterol level, greater than 5.5 mmol/L and triglyceride level, greater than 2.0 mmol/L) was present in 52% of subjects. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels exceeded 3.5 mmol/L in 69% of men and in 71% of women. In terms of five 10-year age intervals, mean plasma triglyceride and cholesterol levels were elevated significantly in patients who had undergone a coronary-artery grafting procedure compared with those of subjects in the National Heart Foundation study. The mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were markedly-lower compared with those of the subjects in the National Heart Foundation study. Of those patients whose plasma cholesterol levels were less than 5.5 mmol/L, 97% of patients had high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels that were less than the mean level for subjects in the National Heart Foundation study. Thus, a very-high proportion of patients who underwent coronary-artery bypass surgery had lipid abnormalities which required intervention postoperatively.