Risk In Turkey Research Articles

Temporal and spatial variation of sediment risk in Turkey: the role of forestry activities and climate change scenarios (2022–2096) utilizing Entropy-based WASPAS and fuzzy clustering

Temporal and spatial variation of sediment risk in Turkey: the role of forestry activities and climate change scenarios (2022–2096) utilizing Entropy-based WASPAS and fuzzy clustering

Investigation of Various Health Conditions Related to Chronic Disease Risks in Turkey

Amaç: Kronik hastalıklar tüm yaş grupların yaşam kalitesini etkilemekte ve artan prevalansı ile hastalık, engellilik ve erken ölümün önde gelen nedenlerinden biridir. Son yüzyıllarda ortalama ömür süreleri giderek yükselmesine rağmen, güncel analizler çeşitli kronik hastalık ve durumlardaki artışlardan ötürü gelecek nesillerde ömür uzunluğunda tam tersine bir azalma tahmin etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de yetişkin ve 15 yaş üstü çocuklarda kronik hastalık riskleri ile ilişkili çeşitli sağlık durumlarının incelenmesidir.
 Yöntem: Bu çalışma, TÜİK’in Türkiye’de kronik hastalık riskleri ile ilişkili çeşitli istatistiklerin birlikte ele alındığı doküman analizi yöntemi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda TÜİK internet sitesinde yer alan “Türkiye Sağlık Araştırması, 2019” başlığı altında verilen; kronik hastalıklara ilişkin istatistiksel veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler 2008 ile 2019 yıllarında toplanmıştır. Araştırma kapsamında 15 yaş ve üzerinde olan 17084 kişi ile görüşülmüştür.
 Bulgular: Türkiye’de bireylerde beden kitle indeksi ortalamaları yüksek olup, obez ve fazla kilolu birey oranı, tütün ve alkol kullanımı toplam nüfusun yaklaşık %30-40’ını kapsamakta; bu oranlar giderek daha da artarak kronik hastalık yüklerini artırmaktadır.
 Sonuç: Tütün ve alkol kullanımı, beden kitle indeksi ve yaşanan sağlık/hastalık durumları giderek artmaktadır. Bu durum, sağlığın korunması ve zararlı alışkanlıkların önlenmesi ile ilgili çalışmaların sonuç vermediği ve hatta bireylerin sağlıklarını bozucu yönde etkileyen faktörler karşısında giderek daha yetersiz kaldığını göstermektedir. Risk yönetimi ve sağaltımı bakımından güncel literatüre dayalı, mutidisipliner ekipler tarafından çok faktörlü değerlendirmeler ile önleme ve tedavilere yönelik yaklaşımların geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Exploring sustainable energy consumption and social conflict risks in Turkey: Insights from a novel multiresolution ARDL approach.

Nonrenewable energy sources have been shown to be a cause of conflict and terrorism, highlighting the global conflict aspect, but little is known about the causal relationship between the energy system and terrorism in Turkey. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the causal links among renewable energy consumption, fossil fuels, terrorist attacks, education, trade opening, and geopolitical risks in Turkey from 1980 to 2016. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, the study analyzes the short and long-term relationships between the variables. Additionally, robustness tests are conducted using a powerful multiresolution ARDL approach to ensure the stability of the statistical findings. The results reveal the existence of long-term relationships between all the variables, particularly among terrorism, renewable energy, and education. In the short term, a one-way relationship exists between terrorism and education to renewable energies and from trade openness to terrorism. The study demonstrates that nonrenewable energy increases terrorism in the long term, whereas renewable energy and trade openness reduce terrorism, highlighting the potential impact of global conflicts on Turkey's sustainable development. Therefore, renewable energy is a powerful tool to fight against terrorism, and Turkey has encouraged its use and deployment of diplomatic efforts to resolve political and military conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. This study provides insights into the complex relationship among sustainable energy consumption, terrorism, education, and trade opening, contributing to the understanding of the geopolitical risks and economics in Turkey. It has implications for policymakers in the region, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and trade openness as tools for conflict resolution and sustainable development in the face of global conflicts.

RISK PERCEPTIONS OF TOURISTS TO THE DESTINATION AND EVALUATION OF PERCEIVED RISKS IN TURKEY

Bu çalışma, destinasyonlarda artan risk çeşitleri ve Türkiye’nin turizm endüstrisinin mevcut konjonktürde oluşan yeni riskler karşısındaki turist algılarına ilişkin kavramsal çerçevesini geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Destinasyonlarda yaşanabilecek veya etkilenebilecek olumsuz durumların her birisine çözüm getirilebilmesi amacıyla, riskin kaynağının belirlenmesi önem teşkil etmektedir. Bu çerçevede, öncelikle turizmde risk teorisi ve geçmişten günümüze gelen risk çeşitleri sistematik bir literatür taraması ile ele alınmaktadır. Tüketicilerin risk algısı teorisinden yararlanılarak Türkiye’yi tercih eden turistlerin karşılaşabileceği güncel riskler belirlenerek, bu risklerin giderilebilmesi veya önlenebilmesi amacıyla öneriler sunulmaya çalışmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı; turistlerin destinasyonlara ilişkin algıladıkları risk faktörleri üzerine gerçekleştirilen çalışmaların sistematik incelenmesini gerçekleştirmek, mevcut gelişen mikro ve makro çevre koşulları altında Türkiye’nin turizm açısından risk konjonktürünü değerlendirmek ve araştırmacılar ile politika yapıcılara turizm yönetimi ve pazarlaması hakkında önerilerde bulunmaktır.

The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk and Credit Default Swap Premium: Evidence from Turkey*

This study investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk in Turkey arising out of the war and terror incidents happened in the region during the period 2003:01-2020:06 with the CDS premium. A two-step approach is undertaken for this assessment, in which an ARDL limit test and then a time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality test are applied to study the possible causality vis-a-vis the subperiods. The ARDL limit test does not reject the hypothesis that there is a co-integrated relationship between CDS premium and geopolitical risk index. In addition, the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test also identifies causality between CDS premium and geopolitical risk, and establishes periods where the latter influences the former variable both in a positive and negative way. In summary, both the ARDL limit test and the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test deduce a causal relationship between the studied variables.

Cardiovascular Risk, Risk Knowledge, and Related Factors in Patients

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate cardiovascular risk, risk knowledge, and related factors in patients. Method: The descriptive and corelational study was carried out with 340 patients who applied to the state hospital between November 2018 and March 2019 and agreed to participate in the study. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews with the scale of the Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Knowledge Level (CARRF-KL) and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) Calculator. Results: In the study, it was found that patients were in the middle risk group in terms of cardiovascular risk, and their risk information level was slightly higher than the average. There was no statistically significant relationship between the level of knowledge of patients and the level of cardiovascular risk (r= -.062, p=.256). Conclusion: The study emphasises that initiatives should be developed to increase awareness of cardiovascular disease risks in Turkey and to increase the level of cardiovascular disease risk information available in order to prevent diseases. Preventative strategies can reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and improve outcomes. Nurses should assess risk knowledge in patients to ensure best outcomes.

Human Causality and Seismic Risks in Turkey

Human Causality and Seismic Risks in Turkey

The regime switching evidence of financial-economic-political risk in Turkey

In recent time, Turkey could be said to have experienced different levels of Economic Risk, Financial Risk, and Political Risk from low- to high-level. This study investigates the linkage between country risks, namely Financial Risk, Economic Risk, and Political Risk (FEP risk) in Turkey for the period 1984Q1 to 2019Q1 by using threshold cointegration, Markow-switching regression (given the nonlinearity and structural breaks observed in the time series variables), and frequency domain causality approaches. The empirical findings of this study reveal that (i) nonlinear cointegration between Economic Risk, Financial Risk, and Political Risk in Turkey is statistically significant given the evidence of threshold cointegration test, which determines the structural breaks endogenously; (ii) there is positive linkage among the component of country risk at different volatility periods; (iii) there is a significant Granger causal linkage between Economic Risk, Financial Risk and Political Risk at the different frequency levels. The study is likely to open debate about the literature since the study concludes with a discussion on short-run and long-run implications for economic, political, and financial stabilises, thus offering policy suggestions for the policymakers in Turkey.

TIME AND FREQUENCY DEPENDENCY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND COUNTRY RISK: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This study examines the time and frequency dependency nexus between foreign exchange (FX) rates and country risk in Turkey. We considered Turkey because it is a negative outlier country in terms of the progress of these indicators. Using quarterly data from 1990/Q1 to 2018/Q4 and the Wavelet Coherence approach, we find that an increase in the country risk causes an increase in the FX rates at different frequencies, especially in the medium and long term and different periods. The results highlight the significance of country risk for the progress of the FX rates. Policy implications are discussed.

Translocation of clothianidin to guttation fluid and its potential impact on honey bee, Apis mellifera anatoliaca Maa, 1953 (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

Honey bees, Apis mellifera anatoliaca Maa, 1953 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) forage water from guttation fluid so transported neonicotinoid insecticides in guttation fluid poses a risk to the bees. The first aim of this study was to determine the toxicity and risk of clothianidin to honey bees. In addition, the changes of clothianidin residue in the guttation fluid of maize plants in Turkey were determined in 2018 and 2019. Also, the toxicity of guttation fluid collected from the maize plants to bees was determined in ecotoxicological tests. The acute oral LD50 of clothianidin to honey bees in the first 24 h was 1.80 ng bee-1 and residue analysis demonstrated that honey bees were exposed to clothianidin concentration in guttation fluid ranging from 0.02 to 6.0 mg L-1 with mortality ranging between 80 and 100%. As the measured concentration of clothianidin in guttation fluid can lead to the mortality of honey bees, present study indicates that clothianidin, and possibly related pesticides in treated maize seed poses a risk to honey bees. Future studies are needed to determine the scale and distribution of this risk in Turkey.

Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration

Abstract This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.

Clustering Framework to Cope with COVID-19 for Cities in Turkey

Introduction: This article is the product of the research “Clustering Framework to Cope with COVID-19 for Cities in Turkey”, developed at Bayburt University in 2021.
 Problem: Turkey's risk map, presented in January 2021, to take local decisions in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic was based on confirmed cases only. Health, socio-economic and environmental indicators are also important for management decisions of COVID-19. The risk map to be designed by adding these indicators will support more effective decisions.
 Objective: The research aims to propose a clustering scheme to design a risk map of cities for Turkey.
 Methodology: The unsupervised clustering algorithm suggested dividing the cities of Turkey into clusters, considering health, socio-economic, environmental indicators, and the spread pattern of COVID-19.
 Results: We found that cities are clustered into five groups while megacity Istanbul alone formed a cluster, three of Turkey's largest cities formed another cluster. Other clusters consist of 19, 26, and 32 cities, respectively. The most important determinants which have predictive power are identified.
 Conclusion: The suggested clustering method can be a decision support system for policymakers to determine the differences and similarities of cities in quarantine decisions and normalization phases for the following periods of the pandemic.
 Originality: To the best of our knowledge, this study differs from previous studies because countries were grouped in previous studies only considering the confirmed cases. In this study, cities were clustered in terms of the health, socio-economic, and environmental indicators to make decisions locally.
 Limitations: The distribution of confirmed cases by age could be added, especially to make decisions about education, but this data is not officially announced.

Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

This study aims to explore the effects of geopolitical risk on the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) tourism index and tourist arrivals. The effects of the geopolitical risk index on the BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals were analyzed based on the data between January 1998 and October 2020, and the findings were presented. Time series analysis methods were used in the study. To investigate the relationship between variables, it was first tested whether the series of variables are stationary or not. Then, Lee-Strazicich unit root test was applied, considering the structural breaks. Finally, the causality relationship between variables and the direction of this relationship was determined by the Hatemi-J causality test. According to the findings, there is an asymmetrical relationship between Turkey's geopolitical risks with BIST tourism index. The increase in Turkey's geopolitical risks, causes a significant decrease in tourism BIST returns. Likewise, when the risk decreases, BIST tourism returns increase. On the other hand, the reduction of geopolitical risk in Turkey causes an increase in tourist arrivals.

“TARSİM” Against Farmers’ Income Insecurity Risk in Turkey: Manisa Sample

Son yıllarda küresel ısınmaya bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan iklim değişikleri öngörülemeyen doğal afetleri de beraberinde getirmiştir. Doğal afetlerden en çok etkilenen sektör ise üretimin iklim koşullarına bağlı olarak gerçekleştirildiği tarım sektörüdür. Devletler için stratejik öneme sahip olan tarım sektörünün başta doğal afetler olmak üzere karşı karşıya olduğu risklere karşı korunması amacıyla devlet destekli tarım sigortaları sistemi kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye’de de 14 Haziran 2005 tarihli 5363 sayılı tarım Sigortaları Kanunu ile birlikte Tarım Sigortaları Havuzu kurulmuştur.
 Bu çalışma, çiftçilerin gelirlerini güvence altına almak için tarım sigortası yaptırıp yaptırmadığını ve tarım sigortalarının doğal afetler nedeniyle ürünleri zarar gören çiftçilere ne düzeyde gelir güvencesi sağladığını ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında nitel araştırma yöntemi kullanılarak Manisa’da çiftçilikle uğraşan 23 kişiyle görüşülmüştür. Görüşmeler yarı yapılandırılmış derinlemesine mülakat şeklinde yapılmıştır.
 Araştırma bulguları çiftçilerin tarım sigortası yaptırma kararına gelirini güvence altına alma isteği ve devlet desteği verilmesi faktörlerinin etki ettiğini göstermektedir. Sigorta yaptırmama kararının altında ise gelir yetersizliği, primlerin yüksek oluşu ve bilgi sahibi olunmaması gibi faktörler yatmaktadır. Ayrıca tarım sigortalarının üreticilerin doğal afetler sonucunda oluşan gelir kayıplarını karşıladığı da bulgulanmıştır.

Relationship between Political and Financial Risks in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Analysis Regarding Institutional Structures

Institutional structure and quality of management are the main elements that form the political risks. Political threats are directly linked to the institutional structure and the institutional design. Political risks increase if the government mechanisms fail. Increasing institutional quality reduces the political risks and positively impacts the financial risks. Monthly data from different indices are used to analyse the relationship between Turkey's political risks and financial risks between 2002 and 2015. According to the Fourier analysis of cointegration, there is a long-term relationship between the political and financial risks. Besides, as per the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) findings and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models, an increase in the political risk increases the financial risk.

Why does the combination of policy entrepreneur and institutional entrepreneur roles matter for the institutionalization of policy ideas?

Public administration, public policy, and political economy literatures are increasingly preoccupied with the role of agency in policy and institutional change, and the effects of institutions on the agency of individual actors. However, linkages between policy and institutional entrepreneurship in processes of institutionalization remain a black box. This article aims to fill this void. It contributes to our understanding of processes underlying the institutionalization of policy ideas in the public sector that have not been investigated adequately. Based on an exploratory case study of the introduction and institutionalization of macroprudential policies to contain macro-financial risks in Turkey, this article argues that policy and institutional entrepreneurship processes are inextricably intertwined and fundamental to the institutionalization of policy ideas: the institutionalization of new policy ideas that resolve conflicting institutional logics and facilitate cooperation and/or collaboration in inter-bureaucratic policy formulation and implementation is most likely when an individual agent with the requisite resources and capabilities builds coalitions through combining the policy and institutional entrepreneur roles while undertaking discursive and powering strategies.

Patch Test Results to European Baseline Series in Turkey: A Prospective and Multicenter Study.

Patch testing with the European Baseline Series (EBS) is an essential diagnostic tool for the assessment of allergic contact dermatitis. The aims of the study were to describe the most common contact allergens identified with patch testing in Turkey and to establish the distribution of contact allergens among different regions in Turkey. Twelve centers consisting of tertiary health care institutions were included in the study. A total of 1169 patients were patch tested with the EBS from 2015 to 2017. A total of 596 patients (51.0%) had 1 or more positive patch test reactions to the EBS. A total of 30.2% (n = 353) of those tested had clinical relevance. Contact sensitivity was more common in young patients. The most common 10 allergens were nickel sulfate (20.4%), followed by textile dye mix (8.6%), cobalt chloride (8.3%), potassium dichromate (8.0%), p-phenylenediamine base (4.5%), balsam of Peru (4.3%), methylchloroisothiazolinone/methylisothiazolinone (3.8%), thiuram mix (3.6%), fragrance mix I (3.0%), and methylisothiazolinone (2.9%). This study provides a comprehensive profile of patch test results with the EBS in Turkey. An ongoing decrease in contact allergy to methylchloroisothiazolinone/methylisothiazolinone and methylisothiazolinone was observed. Textile dye mix and p-phenylenediamine are beginning to pose a new risk in Turkey.

Emerging need for a national policy on psychosocial risk assessment and monitoring in a developing country: A modified Delphi Study

Purpose: To create a framework for consensus on the assessment and monitoring of psychosocial risks by taking the opinions of key people from relevant experts and institutions in Turkey. Methods: A modified Delphi Study was conducted with key experts from different stakeholders and institutions working on psychosocial risk assessment and monitoring policy and practice in Turkey. Representation was not aimed. Purposive and convenient sample was selected by including tripartite structure of occupational health perspective. The study was conducted on June and July 2019 via internet. Two rounded survey method was used to get information from the participants. Results: The participants were agreed on workload, lack of job security, overwork, the low quality of leadership, insufficient wages, underemployment, mobbing, bullying and discrimination are the most important psychosocial risks in Turkey. Psychosocial risk assessments were not carried out in workplaces due to non-prioritization and negligence. The awareness on psychosocial risks at work is low and no standard approach has been identified in psychosocial risk monitoring. There is a need for an action plan supported by many different disciplines, stakeholders and institutions. Legal infrastructure and guideing is needed for psychosocial risk assessment. Competence of OHS professionals should be ensured for the efficient execution. Conclusion: Legal regulations and complementary documents are necessary to guide employers and OHS professionals while conducting psychosocial risk management. These actions should be handled with all participation of social partners, sectoral and professional associations.

Identifying systemically important financial institutions in Turkey

This paper examines the systemic risk of financial firms in Turkey. Using Component Expected Shortfall, we provide estimates of systemic risk in Turkey using daily data from 2005 to 2018 and a comprehensive data set encompassing 54 financial firms. Empirical results show that the preponderance of systemic risk in the sample in Turkey is due to large commercial banks. Top ten systemically important financial institutions dominate systemic risk measures in Turkey and account for more than 90 % of total risk over the sample. Consequently, the risk in the Turkish financial system is concentrated in specific financial institutions and makes close monitoring of the top firms essential. Historical incidence of systemic risk in the sample shows elevated levels of systemic risk correspond to well-known external events. Finally, a bivariate VAR model shows that systemic risk is correlated with measures of global financial risks and has significant negative effects on the real economy particularly on industrial production. This is important from a financial stability point of view in that close monitoring of the systemic risk is important in maintaining a healthy financial system and a well- functioning market economy.

Hazard Perception and Disaster Information of Turkish Secondary School Students*

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the levels of hazard awareness, risk perceptions, the knowledge of response-related protective behavior, and disaster knowledge within the framework of secondary school curriculum in Turkey. A questionnaire examining various measures including hazard awareness, risk perceptions, and general disaster knowledge test was answered by 8th-grade students of schools in Erbaa, Niksar, and Taşova located in North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey. The data from a total of 654 surveys were analyzed utilizing chi-squared, t-test, and ANOVA.The research findings proved that students' disaster awareness and risk perceptions about the environment in which they live are quite realistic. The high levels of earthquake risk perception and fear were related to the fact that they live in settlements located in NAFZ with the highest level of earthquake risk in Turkey. However, research findings proved that most of the students had a fairly low level of knowledge of response-related protective behaviors, and significant differences were found in the context of schools and settlements.
 Key words: 8th-grade students, risk assessment, hazard education, disaster education, Turkey