Risk Impact Analysis Research Articles

Research on Computer Simulation Evaluation based on Risk Impact Analysis and Mitigation Strategy of Waste Disposal Reverse Supply Chain Disruption

The level of garbage treatment represents the development level of the city, which requires each city to deal with the garbage problem. At present, China has been promoting waste classification and recycling, which will gradually improve the waste treatment supply chain system. However, with the continuous improvement of the supply chain, garbage treatment will become a benefit chain, which will lead to the risk of supply chain interruption. With the gradual pursuit of profit and lean, the probability of disruption risk in waste treatment supply chain is gradually increasing. Firstly, this paper analyzes the modes and types of reverse supply chain disruption. Then, this paper puts forward some link strategies. Finally, this paper puts forward the mode of computer simulation.

Evaluasi Kualitas Proses Rekayasa Kebutuhan Knowledge Acquistion in Automated Specification Menggunakan Model Concern of Requirement Engineering

One of the most common methods used for goal-oriented requirements engineering is Knowledge Acquistion in Automated Specification (KAOS). In the previous research KAOS method has been used to develop a system. In this research, the Concern of Requirements Engineering (CORE) model is used to evaluate KAOS perspective and meet the criteria of research methods to improve the quality of the requirements engineering process. The objective of quality evaluation of KAOS process is to measure and assess the process quality of KAOS methods. The assessment result shows that KAOS method still need to complement its activities regarding to risk impact analysis, manage agreements for changing needs, and manage relationships between needs.

베이지안 네트워크와 AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 활용한 쉴드 TBM 터널 리스크 분석

본 논문에서는 쉴드 TBM 시공 시 발생 가능한 사건 및 원인의 규명, 리스크 발생의 인과관계 규명, 리스크의 위험도 판별, 리스크의 저감대책 제시를 통한 쉴드 TBM의 전반적인 시공 리스크 관리에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해서 쉴드 TBM의 사고 사례에 대한 문헌조사, 설계 및 시공 전문가 인터뷰를 수행하였다. 리스크 사건은 절삭량 저하, 막장면 붕괴, 지반 침하, 지반 융기, 이수 분출, 배토 불능, 굴착 불가, 지하수 누수의 8개의 그룹으로 나뉘어졌다. 리스크의 원인은 지질 원인, 설계 원인, 시공관리 원인의 3가지 그룹으로 나뉘어졌다. 리스크 원인과 사건간의 인과관계를 체계적으로 분석하기 위하여 베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 도식적인 관계도를 작성하였다. 리스크의 위험도를 산정하기 위하여 리스크가 발생하였을 때 이를 복구하기 위한 다운타임 및 비용을 기준으로 전문가를 대상으로 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)를 수행하였으며, 위험도 결과에 기반하여 리스크 대응단계를 제시하고 이를 실제 리스크 발생사례와 비교하여 검증하였다. 또한 발생 가능한 리스크에 대응하기 위하여 설계 및 시공단계에서의 리스크 저감대책을 제안하였다. 제안된 연구는 TBM 설계자 및 시공자가 현장의 조건을 고려하여 리스크 원인을 선정하고 이로 인해 발생 가능한 리스크를 체계적으로 분석하여 파악할 수 있게 해주며, 리스크의 위험도의 판별 및 그에 대한 설계 및 시공단계에서의 저감대책을 통해 체계적인 쉴드 TBM 리스크 관리에 도움을 줄 수 있다. Overall risks that can occur in a shield TBM tunnelling are studied in this paper. Both the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction and their causes are identified, and the causal relationship between causes and events is obtained in a systematic way. Risk impact analysis is performed for the potential risk events and ways to mitigate the risks are summarized. Literature surveys as well as interviews with experts were made for this purpose. The potential risk events are classified into eight categories: cuttability reduction, collapse of a tunnel face, ground surface settlement and upheaval, spurts of slurry on the ground, incapability of mucking and excavation, and water leakage. The causes of these risks are categorized into three areas: geological, design and construction management factors. Bayesian Networks (BN) were established to systematically assess a causal relationship between causes and events. The risk impact analysis was performed to evaluate a risk response level by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the consideration of the downtime and cost of measures. Based on the result of the risk impact analysis, the risk events are divided into four risk response levels and these levels are verified by comparing with the actual occurrences of risk events. Measures to mitigate the potential risk events during the design and/or construction stages are also proposed. Result of this research will be of the help to the designers and contractors of TBM tunnelling projects in identifying the potential risks and for preparing a systematic risk management through the evaluation of the risk response level and the migration methods in the design and construction stage.

Risk Impact Analysis on the Investment of Drinking Water Supply System Development using Project Risk Management

The development of a water supply system requires a high investment cost, and financial, environmental, and institutional aspects need to be considered. As major projects involving many stakeholders, drinking water supply projects become vulnerable to risks. A risk-based analysis is required to reduce the likelihood of failure in both the operational and financial aspects of such projects. This study describes the process of risk management planning for a drinking water supply system construction project in South Bali. The case study is based on the project risk management method with the value at risk to calculate the impact of risks in project investment. The purpose of this study is to obtain a financial risk model that maps potential risk factors and calculates the financial impact of risks on the project. This is used to create alternative strategies to reduce the impact of risks on investment made during the development of the project. The analysis showed that of the three priority risk factors, production capacity has the greatest influence on the net present value of the project.

Modelling stakeholder-associated risk networks in green building projects

This research aims to model the interactive networks of the risks associated with different stakeholders in green building projects and to gain an understanding of the key risk networks. Case studies of green star accredited office building projects were undertaken in China and Australia. Case data were collected through focused group workshops, face-to-face interviews and desktop studies, and analysed by using social network analysis methods. The results show that while reputation risk is important in both countries, the ethical risk of ‘assessment experience and fairness’ has been highlighted as crucial in the Chinese context. The results further show that government plays an important role in improving the societies' knowledge and awareness on green technology uptake in China. The social network analysis method in this research improves the effectiveness and accuracy of stakeholder and risk analysis by demystifying the social complexity which is usually overlooked in traditional linear risk impact analysis.

Risk Impact Analysis across the Phases of Software Development

success factors of any project will surface as risks if overlooked. This paper therefore focuses on analyzing the impact of these risks across all the phases of software development which are categorized in terms of short term and long term projects. This mode of analysis enables the developer to comprehend and thereby manage the risks more effectively.

QRA Model‐Based Risk Impact Analysis of Traffic Flow in Urban Road Tunnels

Road tunnels are vital infrastructures providing underground vehicular passageways for commuters and motorists. Various quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models have recently been developed and employed to evaluate the safety levels of road tunnels in terms of societal risk (as measured by the F/N curve). For a particular road tunnel, traffic volume and proportion of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are two adjustable parameters that may significantly affect the societal risk, and are thus very useful in implementing risk reduction solutions. To evaluate the impact the two contributing factors have on the risk, this article first presents an approach that employs a QRA model to generate societal risk for a series of possible combinations of the two factors. Some combinations may result in F/N curves that do not fulfill a predetermined safety target. This article thus proposes an "excess risk index" in order to quantify the road tunnel risk magnitudes that do not pass the safety target. The two-factor impact analysis can be illustrated by a contour chart based on the excess risk. Finally, the methodology has been applied to Singapore's KPE road tunnel and the results show that in terms of meeting the test safety target for societal risk, the traffic capacity of the tunnel should be no more than 1,200 vehs/h/lane, with a maximum proportion of 18% HGVs.

An analysis for risk impact of Emergency Diesel Generator on modified Surveillance Test Interval by considering failure due to demand stress

The common practice for the estimation of the probability of a component failure to start on demand is to lump together standby failures and failures due to the stress induced by the demand itself. In this paper, a failure by demand stress as well as a standby failure is considered separately to estimate the probability of a failure on demand when a Surveillance Test Interval (STI) is modified. The proposed estimation method is based on α, the ratio of the probability of a failure by demand stress to that of a failure on demand. The estimate of α, however, should be changed when an STI is modified. An estimation method for α′, the changed parameter corresponding to α under an STI modification is also suggested. With the proposed estimation method and the estimate of α′ from a plant specific database, a risk impact analysis due to an STI modification for the Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG) of UCN units 3 and 4 is performed. From the sensitivity analysis, the following conclusions can de derived: if it is assumed that all failures occur during the standby time, as it is the case in the common practice, the results can overestimate the risk impact. And it is required to construct a component reliability database containing detailed information on the failure types to recognize whether a component failure occurs during a standby time or a test.

A concise cost analysis of Internet malware

In this paper we present a cost model to analyze impacts of Internet malware in order to estimate the cost of incidents and risk caused by them. The model is useful in determining parameters needed to estimate recovery efficiency, probabilistic risk distributions, and cost of malware incidents. Many users tend to underestimate the cost of curiosity coming with stealth malware such as email-attachments, freeware/shareware, spyware (including keyloggers, password thieves, phishing-ware, network sniffers, stealth backdoors, and rootkits), popups, and peer-to-peer fileshares. We define two sets of functions to describe evolution of attacks and potential loss caused by malware, where the evolution functions analyze infection patterns, while the loss functions provide risk-impact analysis of failed systems. Due to a wide range of applications, such analyses have drawn the attention of many engineers and researchers. Analysis of malware propagation itself has little to contribute unless tied to analysis of system performance, economic loss, and risks.

Relating multiobjective decision trees to the multiobjective risk impact analysis method

This paper develops the theoretical and methodological relationship between multiobjective decision trees (MODT) and the multiobjective risk impact analysis method (MRIAM)—two tools that are useful in decision-making at each step of the system life cycle. Decision trees have been extensively used in decision problems with great success. Multiobjective decision trees include multiple noncommensurate objective functions over a given period. On the other hand, the MRIAM analyzes risk and decision impacts in a dynamic multiobjective framework. Both methods are used to perform sequential decision-making by analyzing the impacts of current decisions on future options. Understanding the advantages and limitations of these two distinct methods and appreciating how they supplement and complement each other contributes synergy to an analysis. An illustrative example shows how a given problem can be solved using MODT and the MRIAM. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 8: 95–108, 2005

A watershed-based cumulative risk impact analysis: environmental vulnerability and impact criteria.

Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have received much attention in recent years. As a result, a watershed-based screening tool, the Cumulative Risk Index Analysis (CRIA), was developed to assess the cumulative impacts of multiple CAFO facilities in a watershed subunit. The CRIA formula calculates an index number based on: 1) the area of one or more facilities compared to the area of the watershed subunit, 2) the average of the environmental vulnerability criteria, and 3) the average of the industry-specific impact criteria. Each vulnerability or impact criterion is ranked on a 1 to 5 scale, with a low rank indicating low environmental vulnerability or impact and a high rank indicating high environmental vulnerability or impact. The individual criterion ranks, as well as the total CRIA score, can be used to focus the environmental analysis and facilitate discussions with industry, public, and other stakeholders in the Agency decision-making process.

A comparative risk analysis of fuel wood use in the Pacific Northwest

A risk impact analysis is performed for residential space heating derived from fuelwood in the Pacific Northwest. Direct risks associated with the collection and use of fuelwood in homes are characterized and computed per 10 12 Btu of fuelwood harvested. The hazards identified are then compared to similar risks associated with the generation of electricity using four different fuels: coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium. The resulting comparison indicates that the acquisition and use of fuelwood in residences is several times more costly in terms of loss of life and injury incurred, than electricity derived from the conventional fuels compared.