Risk Of 30-day Adverse Events Research Articles

A-011 Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Compared to High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Measurement to Rule Out Acute Myocardial Infarction at Low Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events: CONTRAST Study

Abstract Background Cardiac troponin (cTn) is the preferred biomarker for diagnosing myocardial injury and acute myocardial infarction (MI). There are few comparative studies addressing the clinical performance of high-sensitivity (hs)-cTnI and hs-cTnT assays using fresh plasma for early rule out of myocardial infarction (MI) on presentation in patients presenting to emergency departments (ED). This study examined the performance strategies of a derived optimal concentration for a single high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) measurement compared to a derived optimal concentration for a single high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) measurement to rule out acute MI. Methods The COmparisoN of high-sensitivity cardiac TRoponin I and T ASsays Trial (CONTRAST) (NCT03214029) is a prospective, observational cohort study of consecutive adult ED patients (n = 2208) undergoing serial cTn measurements as clinically indicated. hs-cTnI (Abbott ARCHITECT) and hs-cTnT (Gen 5, Roche e601) measurements using fresh EDTA plasma were obtained. We determine optimal hs-cTn cutoffs for negative predictive value (NPV) and sensitivity for the diagnosis of acute MI (type 1 and type 2) to allow for a maximum number for early discharges with minimal risk of adverse events (acute MI or cardiac death) at 30 days. Results Acute MI occurred in 161 patients (7.3%), including 68 (42.2%) type 1 MI and 93 (57.7%) type 2 MI. For hs-cTnI (<2 ng/L) optimal NPV and sensitivity for adverse events were 99.1% (95% confidence interval 97.7%-99.8%) and 98.2% (CI. 95.4-99.5%). 450 Patients (21%) qualified for early rule out, at a 1.8% miss rate at 30 days. For hs-cTnT (<6 ng/L) optimal NPV and sensitivity for adverse events were 99.2% (CI 98.0%-99.8%) and 98.1% (CI. 95.3-99.5%). 513 Patients (24%) qualified for early rule out, at a 1.9% miss rate at 30 days. Conclusions In CONTRAST, a strategy using a single sample hs-cTnI or hs-cTnT alone allows for the early identification of patients unlikely to have acute MI and who are at very low risk for adverse events at 30 days. Minor differences existed between the Abbott ARCHITECT hs-cTnI assay and the Roche e601 hs-cTnT (Gen 5) assay in fresh plasma were found.

Can Timely Outpatient Visits Reduce Readmissions and Mortality Among Heart Failure Patients?

Outpatient follow-up after a hospital discharge may reduce the risk of readmissions, but existing evidence has methodological limitations. To assess effect of outpatient follow-up within 7, 14, 21 and 30days of a hospital discharge on 30-day unplanned readmissions or mortality among heart failure (HF) patients; and whether this varies for patients with different clinical complexities. We analyzed medical records between January 2016 and December 2021 from a prospective cohort study. Using time varying mixed effects parametric survival models, we examined the association between not having an outpatient follow-up and risk of adverse events. We used interaction models to assess if the effect of outpatient follow-up visit on outcomes varies with patients' clinical complexity (comorbidities, grip strength, cognitive impairment and length of inpatient stay). Two hundred and forty-one patients with advanced HF. 30-day all-cause (or cardiac) adverse event defined as all cause (or cardiac) unplanned readmissions or death within 30days of an unplanned all-cause (or cardiac) admission or emergency department visit. We analyzed 1595 all-cause admissions, inclusive of 1266 cardiac admissions. Not having an outpatient follow-up (vs having an outpatient follow-up) significantly increased the risk of 30-day all-cause adverse event. (risk [95% CI] - 14days: 35.1 [84.5,-1.1]; 21days: 43.9 [48.2,6.7]; 30days: 31.1 [48.5, 7.9]) The risk (at 21days) was higher for those with one co-morbidity (0.25 [0.11,0.58]), mild (0.67 [0.45, 1.00]) and moderate cognitive impairment (0.38 [0.17, 0.84]), normal grip strength (0.57 [0.34, 0.96]) and length of inpatient stay 7-13days (0.45 [0.23, 0.89]). Outpatient follow-up within 30days after a hospital discharge reduced risk of 30-day adverse events among HF patients, the benefit varying according to clinical complexity. Results suggest the need to prioritize patients who benefit from outpatient follow-up for these visits.

The association between preoperative COVID-19-positivity and acute postoperative complication risk among patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.

This study aimed to investigate the risk of postoperative complications in COVID-19-positive patients undergoing common orthopaedic procedures. Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP) database, patients who underwent common orthopaedic surgery procedures from 1 January to 31 December 2021 were extracted. Patient preoperative COVID-19 status, demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, and postoperative complications were analyzed. Propensity score matching was conducted between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients. Multivariable regression was then performed to identify both patient and provider risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of 30-day postoperative adverse events. Of 194,121 included patients, 740 (0.38%) were identified to be COVID-19-positive. Comparison of comorbidities demonstrated that COVID-19-positive patients had higher rates of diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease. After propensity matching and controlling for all preoperative variables, multivariable analysis found that COVID-19-positive patients were at increased risk of several postoperative complications, including: any adverse event, major adverse event, minor adverse event, death, venous thromboembolism, and pneumonia. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery were at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery had increased odds of many 30-day postoperative complications, with hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery being the most high-risk procedures. These data reinforce prior literature demonstrating increased risk of venous thromboembolic events in the acute postoperative period. Clinicians caring for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures should be mindful of these increased risks, and attempt to improve patient care during the ongoing global pandemic.

Neuraxial Anesthesia Significantly Reduces 30-Day Venous Thromboembolism Rate and Length of Hospital Stay in Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Stratified Propensity Score–Matched Cohort Analysis

BackgroundGeneral anesthesia (GA) has been the commonly used protocol for total hip arthroplasty (THA); however, neuraxial anesthesia (NA) has been increasingly performed. Our purpose was to compare NA and GA for 30-day postoperative outcomes in United States veterans undergoing primary THA. MethodsA large veteran’s database was utilized to identify patients undergoing primary THA between 1999 and 2019. A total of 56,244 patients had undergone THA and were included in our study. Of these, 44,780 (79.6%) had received GA, and 10,788 (19.2%) had received NA. Patients receiving NA or GA were compared for 30-day mortalities, cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal complications, and wound infections and hospital lengths of stay (LOS). Propensity score matching, multivariate regression analyses, and subgroup analyses by American Society of Anesthesiology classification were performed to control for selection bias and patient baseline characteristics. ResultsUpon propensity-adjusted multivariate analyses, NA was associated with decreased risks for deep venous thrombosis (odds ratio [OR] = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.4-0.9; P = .02), any respiratory complication (OR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.5-0.9; P = .003), unplanned reintubation (OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.3-0.9; P = .009), and prolonged LOS (OR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.72-0.84; P < .001). Subgroup analyses by American Society of Anesthesiology classes showed NA decreased 30-day venous thromboembolism rate in low-risk (class I/II) patients and decreased respiratory complications in high-risk (class III/IV) patients. ConclusionUsing a patient cohort obtained from a large national database, NA was associated with reduced risk of 30-day adverse events compared to GA in patients undergoing THA. Postoperative adverse events were decreased with NA administration with similar decreases observed across all patient preoperative risk levels. NA was also associated with a significant decrease in hospital LOS.

Predictive Factors of 30-day Adverse Events in Acute Heart Failure after Discharge from Emergency Department; a Historical Cohort Study.

Introduction:The rates of unscheduled emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions after discharge from the ED in acute heart failure (AHF) patients are high. This study aimed to identify the predictive factors of 30-day adverse events after discharge from the ED. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in patients diagnosed with AHF and discharged from the ED at a tertiary university hospital. Thirty-day adverse events were defined as (i) unscheduled revisit to the ED with AHF, (ii) hospital admission from AHF, and, (iii) death after discharge from the ED. The predictive factors of 30-day adverse events were examined using multivariate analyses by logistic regression. Results:421 patients with the median age of 73 (IQR: 63-81) years were studied (52.3% male). 81 (19.2%) patients had 30-day adverse events. Significant predictive factors of 30-day adverse events consisted of underlying valvular heart disease (OR = 2.46; 95%CI: 1.27-4.78; p = 0.008), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 0.08; 95%CI: 0.01-0.64; p=0.001), malignancy (OR=3.63; 95%CI: 1.17-11.24; p = 0.031), New York Heart Association functional class III (OR = 4.88; 95%CI: 0.93-25.59) and IV (OR = 7.23; 95% CI: 1.37-38.08) at the ED (p = 0.035), and serum sodium <135 mmol/L (OR = 2.20; 95%CI: 1.17-4.14; p = 0.014). Precipitating factors were anemia (OR = 2.42; 95%CI: 1.16-5.02; p = 0.021), progressive valvular heart disease (OR = 3.52; 95%CI: 1.35-7.85; p = 0.009), acute kidney injury (OR = 6.98; 95%CI: 2.32-20.96; p < 0.001), time to diuretic administration >60 minutes after ED arrival (OR = 3.89; 95%CI: 2.16-7.00; p < 0.001), and no discharge advice for follow-up (OR = 2.30; 95%CI: 1.10-4.77; p = 0.028). Conclusion:AHF patients who had good response to intravenous diuretics and were discharged from the ED were at high risk for 30-day adverse events. Ten factors predicted 30-day adverse events after discharge from the ED.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate is a prognosticator of adverse outcomes after primary total knee arthroplasty among patients with chronic kidney disease and glomerular hyperfiltration

BackgroundThe goals of this study were: (1) to test whether patients with an Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) that is higher or lower than population-based standards have an increased risk of 30-day mortality, return to the operating room, readmission, non-home discharge, any complication, major complications, and minor complications after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA); and (2) to find out whether there is a significant non-linear relationship between eGFR and those same variables. MethodsA total of 168,919 primary TKAs were identified using The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2016. The following outcomes were assessed at 30 days: mortality, return to the operating room, readmission, non-home discharge, any complication, major complications, and minor complications. ResultsMultivariate binomial logistical regression found that patients with hyperfiltration had higher rates of readmission (P < 0.03), non-home discharge (P < 0.01), any complication (P < 0.01), major complications (P = 0.03), and minor complications (P < 0.01) compared to reference patients with eGFR in the normal range.Patients with an eGFR less than 60 (stage 3 chronic kidney disease or higher) had increased odds of mortality (P < 0.05), readmission (P < 0.05), any complication (P < 0.01), major complications (P < 0.01), and minor complications (P < 0.01). Spline regression found statistically significant non-linear relationships between eGFR and mortality (P < 0.001), return to the operating room (P = 0.0029), and readmission as well as non-home discharge (P < 0.001). ConclusionLow eGFR and hyperfiltration may be associated with elevated risk of 30-day adverse events. GFR can be used as a risk stratification tool to counseling patients with particular attention paid to those with a GFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2.

Safety and Perioperative Adverse Events in Pediatric Endoscopic Sinus Surgery: An ACS-NSQIP-P Analysis.

This study describes safety outcomes of pediatric endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) to identify risk factors for 30-day postoperative adverse events using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (NSQIP-P) database. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients in the 2012-2015 NSQIP-P database who underwent ESS. Predictors included demographics, comorbidities and surgical acuity. Outcomes included 30-day complications, reoperations, and readmissions. Among 2,061 ESS cases identified, 1,829 (88.7%) were elective and 232 (11.3%) were urgent/emergent. There were 92 (4.5%) readmissions, 54 (2.6%) unplanned reoperations, and 61 (3.0%) complications. On multivariate analysis, readmission was associated with urgent/emergent procedures (OR 2.31, CI 1.36-3.93, p<0.01) and history of bleeding disorder (OR 2.24, CI 1.12-4.44, p = 0.02), reoperation was associated with urgent/emergent procedures (OR 5.78, CI 3.24-10.34, p<0.01), and complications were associated with urgent/emergent procedures (OR 3.81, CI 2.13-6.82, p<0.01) and history of bleeding disorder (OR 5.30, CI 2.74-10.20, p<0.01). Bleeding requiring transfusion was associated with urgent/emergent procedures (OR 9.61, CI 2.90-31.80, p<0.01), history of bleeding disorder (OR 14.16, CI 4.41-45.45, p<0.01), and age <3 years (OR 3.92, CI 0.99-15.61, p = 0.05). Black children were significantly more likely to undergo urgent/emergent surgery than white children (19.7% vs. 9.6%, p<0.01). This multi-institutional study confirms that while pediatric ESS is largely safe, urgent/emergent procedures carry the greatest risk of postoperative adverse events, and black children are significantly more likely to undergo higher acuity surgery than white children. Regardless of procedure acuity, young age and bleeding disorder are associated with higher risk of 30-day adverse events.

Identification of Emergency Department Patients With Acute Heart Failure at Low Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events: The STRATIFY Decision Tool

ObjectivesNo prospectively derived or validated decision tools identify emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) at low risk for 30-day adverse events who are thus potential candidates for safe ED discharge. This study sought to accomplish that goal. BackgroundThe nearly 1 million annual ED visits for AHF are associated with high proportions of admissions and consume significant resources. MethodsWe prospectively enrolled 1,033 patients diagnosed with AHF in the ED from 4 hospitals between July 20, 2007, and February 4, 2011. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy, defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of ED evaluation (acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularization, emergent dialysis, intubation, mechanical cardiac support, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and death). ResultsOf 1,033 patients enrolled, 126 (12%) experienced at least one 30-day adverse event. The decision tool had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.63 to 0.74). Elevated troponin (p < 0.001) and renal function (p = 0.01) were significant predictors of adverse events in our multivariable model, whereas B-type natriuretic peptide (p = 0.09), tachypnea (p = 0.09), and patients undergoing dialysis (p = 0.07) trended toward significance. At risk thresholds of 1%, 3%, and 5%, we found 0%, 1.4%, and 13.0% patients were at low risk, with negative predictive values of 100%, 96%, and 93%, respectively. ConclusionsThe STRATIFY decision tool identifies ED patients with AHF who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and may be candidates for safe ED discharge. After external testing, and perhaps when used as part of a shared decision-making strategy, it may significantly affect disposition strategies. (Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED [STRATIFY]; NCT00508638)

The AFFORD Clinical Decision Aid to Identify Emergency Department Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Low Risk for 30-day Adverse Events: Barrett TW, Storrow AB, Jenkins CA, et al. Am J Cardiol 2015;115:763–70.

The AFFORD Clinical Decision Aid to Identify Emergency Department Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Low Risk for 30-day Adverse Events: Barrett TW, Storrow AB, Jenkins CA, et al. Am J Cardiol 2015;115:763–70.

The AFFORD Clinical Decision Aid to Identify Emergency Department Patients With Atrial Fibrillation at Low Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events

There is wide variation in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED). We aimed to derive and internally validate the first prospective, ED-based clinical decision aid to identify patients with AF at low risk for 30-day adverse events. We performed a prospective cohort study at a university-affiliated tertiary-care ED. Patients were enrolled from June 9, 2010, to February 28, 2013, and followed for 30 days. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients in ED presenting with symptomatic AF. Candidate predictors were based on ED data available in the first 2 hours. The decision aid was derived using model approximation (preconditioning) followed by strong bootstrap internal validation. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of the ED evaluation. Of 497 patients enrolled, stroke and AF-related death occurred in 13 (3%) and 4 (<1%) patients, respectively. The decision aid included the following: age, triage vitals (systolic blood pressure, temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, supplemental oxygen requirement), medical history (heart failure, home sotalol use, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, electrical cardioversion, cardiac ablation, frequency of AF symptoms), and ED data (2 hours heart rate, chest radiograph results, hemoglobin, creatinine, and brain natriuretic peptide). The decision aid's c-statistic in predicting any 30-day adverse event was 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.65, 0.76). In conclusion, in patients with AF in the ED, Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Outcome Risk Determination provides the first evidence-based decision aid for identifying patients who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and candidates for safe discharge.

Comparative Assessment of Short-Term Adverse Events in Acute Heart Failure With Cystatin C and Other Estimates of Renal Function: Results From the ASCEND-HF Trial

ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive values of baseline and changes in cystatin C (CysC) and its derived equations for short-term adverse outcomes and the effect of nesiritide therapy on CysC in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). BackgroundNewer renal biomarkers or their derived estimates of renal function have demonstrated long-term prognostic value in chronic heart failure. MethodsCysC levels were measured in sequential plasma samples from 811 subjects with ADHF who were enrolled in the ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) biomarker sub-study (randomized to nesiritide therapy vs. placebo), and followed for all-cause death (180 days) and recurrent hospital stay (30 days). ResultsMedian CysC levels were 1.49 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.20 to 1.96) mg/l at baseline, 1.56 (IQR: 1.28 to 2.13) mg/l at 48 to 72 h, and 1.58 (IQR: 1.24 to 2.11) mg/l at 30 days. Higher baseline (but not follow-up) CysC levels were associated with increased risk of 30-day adverse events and less improvement in dyspnea after 24 h as well as 180-day mortality, although not incremental to blood urea nitrogen. Worsening renal function (defined as a 0.3 mg/l increase in CysC) occurred in 161 of 701 (23%) patients, but it was not predictive of adverse events. Changes in CysC levels were similar between the nesiritide and placebo groups. ConclusionsOur findings confirmed the prognostic value of baseline CysC levels in the setting of ADHF. However, worsening renal function based on CysC rise was not predictive of adverse events. Nesiritide did not worsen renal function compared with placebo.

The effect of underlying liver disease on short-term outcomes following bariatric surgery.

Morbid obesity is strongly associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. However, the effect of underlying liver disease on clinical outcomes following bariatric surgery has not been well studied. This study aims to determine the effect of underlying liver disease on short-term outcomes in bariatric patients using the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system as a practical measure of hepatic dysfunction. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using data from the American College of Surgeons' National surgery quality improvement program participant use files. The study population consisted of patients that underwent elective laparoscopic-stapled bariatric surgery for morbid obesity between 2005 and 2012. Patients were excluded if they had a bleeding disorder or renal failure requiring dialysis. The optimal MELD cut-off score to predict 30-day adverse events was determined and used to stratify patients into two groups. The primary outcome was 30-day adverse events, defined as a postoperative complication or reoperation. The secondary outcome was 30-day mortality. A multiple logistic regression was performed to adjust the odds ratio (OR) estimate for 30-day adverse events based on the MELD cut-off score. 38,875 patients were included in the study population. A MELD score of 7.9 was determined to be the optimal cut-off to predict 30-day adverse events based on the maximized linear combination of specificity and sensitivity. After adjusting for confounding, the OR estimates for 30-day adverse events and mortality using the cut-off score as the key predictor were 1.22 [95% CI 1.06-1.41] and 2.33 [95% CI 1.19-4.56], respectively. Using this large national surgical registry, bariatric patients with MELD scores ≥7.9 had a significant but marginal risk of 30-day adverse events and mortality. This suggests that severity of liver disease may affect bariatric surgery outcomes and should be considered during preoperative evaluations.

HEART Score to Further Risk Stratify Patients With Low TIMI Scores

The ability to risk stratify patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is critical. The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score can risk stratify ED patients with potential ACS but cannot identify patients safe for ED discharge. The symptom-based HEART score identifies very low-risk patients. Our hypothesis was that patients with a TIMI score of 0 or 1 may be stratified further with the HEART score to identify a group of patients at less than 1% risk of 30-day cardiovascular events. We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study in a tertiary care hospital ED. Patients with potential ACS who were >30 years of age were included. Data collected included demographics, history, electrocardiogram, laboratories, and components of the TIMI and HEART scores. Follow-up was conducted by structured record review and phone. The main outcome was a composite of death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization at 30 days. There were 8815 patients enrolled (mean age, 52.8 ± 15.1 years; 57% women, and 69% black). At 30 days, the composite event rate was 8.0% (660 patients): 108 deaths, 410 acute myocardial infarction, and 301 revascularizations. Of the 485 patients with both a TIMI score of 0 and a HEART score of 0, there were no cardiovascular events (95% confidence interval, 0-0.8%); but no other score combination had an upper limit confidence interval less than 1%. At all levels of TIMI score, the HEART score was able to further substratify patients with respect to 30-day risk. A HEART score of 0 in a patient with a TIMI of 0 identified a group of patients at less than 1% risk for 30-day adverse events.

Early changes in clinical characteristics after emergency department therapy for acute heart failure syndromes: identifying patients who do not respond to standard therapy

Clinical trials for acute heart failure syndromes (AHFS) have traditionally enrolled patients well after emergency department (ED) presentation. We hypothesized a large proportion of patients would undergo changes in clinical profiles during the first 24h of hospitalization, and these changes would be associated with adverse events. We evaluated a prospective cohort of patients with clinical data available at ED presentation and 12-24h after ED treatment for AHFS. Patients were categorized into distinct clinical profiles at these time points based on (1) systolic blood pressure: a-hypertensive (>160mmHg); b-normotensive (100-159mmHg); or c-hypotensive (<100mmHg); (2) moderate-to-severe renal dysfunction (GFR≤60ml/min/1.73m(2)); and (3) presence of troponin positivity. A composite outcome of 30-day cardiovascular events was determined by phone follow-up. In the 370 patients still hospitalized with data available at the 12-24h time point, 196 (53.0%) had changed their clinical profiles, with 117 (59.7%) improving and 79 (40.3%) worsening. The composite 30-day event rate was 16.9%. Patients whose clinical profile started and stayed abnormal had a significantly greater proportion of events than those who started and stayed normal (26.1% vs. 11.3%; P=0.03). Patients with abnormal clinical profiles at presentation that remain abnormal throughout the first 12-24h of hospitalization are at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. Future clinical trials may need to consider targeting these patients, as they may be the most likely to benefit from experimental therapy.

A Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events in Emergency Department Patients With Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation affects more than 2 million people in the United States and accounts for nearly 1% of emergency department (ED) visits. Physicians have little information to guide risk stratification of patients with symptomatic atrial fibrillation and admit more than 65%. Our aim is to assess whether data available in the ED management of symptomatic atrial fibrillation can estimate a patient's risk of experiencing a 30-day adverse event. We systematically reviewed the electronic medical records of all ED patients presenting with symptomatic atrial fibrillation between August 2005 and July 2008. Predefined adverse outcomes included 30-day ED return visit, unscheduled hospitalization, cardiovascular complication, or death. We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of 30-day adverse events. The model was validated with 300 bootstrap replications. During the 3-year study period, 914 patients accounted for 1,228 ED visits. Eighty patients were excluded for non-atrial-fibrillation-related complaints and 2 patients had no follow-up recorded. Of 832 eligible patients, 216 (25.9%) experienced at least 1 of the 30-day adverse events. Increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 1.20 per decade; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06 to 1.36 per decade), complaint of dyspnea (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.20), smokers (OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.76), inadequate ventricular rate control (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.21), and patients receiving β-blockers (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.04) were independently associated with higher risk for adverse events. C-index was 0.67. In ED patients with symptomatic atrial fibrillation, increased age, inadequate ED ventricular rate control, dyspnea, smoking, and β-blocker treatment were associated with an increased risk of a 30-day adverse event.

Coronary computerized tomography angiography for rapid discharge of low-risk patients with cocaine-associated chest pain

Most patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with cocaine-associated chest pain are admitted for at least 12 hours and receive a "rule out acute coronary syndrome" protocol, often with noninvasive testing prior to discharge. In patients without cocaine use, coronary computerized tomography angiography (CTA) has been shown to be useful for identifying a group of patients at low risk for cardiac events who can be safely discharged. It is unclear whether a coronary CTA strategy would be efficacious in cocaine-associated chest pain, as coronary vasospasm may account for some of the ischemia. We studied whether a negative coronary CTA in patients with cocaine-associated chest pain could identify a subset safe for discharge. We prospectively evaluated the safety of coronary CTA for low-risk patients who presented to the ED with cocaineassociated chest pain (self-reported or positive urine test). Consecutive patients received either immediate coronary CTA in the ED (without serial markers) or underwent coronary CTA after a brief observation period with serial cardiac marker measurements. Patients with negative coronary CTA (maximal stenosis less than 50%) were discharged. The main outcome was 30-day cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. A total of 59 patients with cocaine-associated chest pain were evaluated. Patients had a mean age of 45.6 +/- 6.6 yrs and were 86% black, 66% male. Seventy-nine percent had a normal or nonspecific ECG and 85% had a TIMI score <2. Twenty patients received coronary CTA immediately in the ED, 18 of whom were discharged following CTA (90%). Thirty-nine received coronary CTA after a brief observation period, with 37 discharged home following CTA (95%). Six patients had coronary stenosis >or=50%. During the 30-day follow-up period, no patients died of a cardiovascular event (0%; 95% CI, 0-6.1%) and no patient sustained a nonfatal myocardial infarction (0%; 95% CI, 0-6.1%). Although cocaine-associated myocardial ischemia can result from coronary vasoconstriction, patients with cocaine associated chest pain, a non-ischemic ECG, and a TIMI risk score <2 may be safely discharged from the ED after a negative coronary CTA with a low risk of 30-day adverse events.

1: A Clinical Prediction Model to Estimate Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events in Emergency Department Patients With Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation

One percent of all emergency department (ED) visits are related to atrial fibrillation and 70% of these patients are admitted. Our objective was to develop a clinical prediction model that would predict 30-day adverse outcomes in patients presenting to the ED with symptomatic atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized that data available within the first 2 hours of ED management can assess a patient's risk of experiencing an adverse event within 30 days of their ED visit.

Combining Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score and clear-cut alternative diagnosis for chest pain risk stratification

ObjectiveThe Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is a validated risk stratification tool useful in patients with definite and potential acute coronary syndromes (ACS) but does not identify patients safe for discharge from the emergency department (ED). Likewise, the use of a clear-cut alternative noncardiac diagnosis risk stratifies patients but does not identify a group safe for discharge. We hypothesized that the presence of an alternative diagnosis in patients with a TIMI risk score less than 2 might identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge. MethodsIn prospective cohort study, we enrolled ED patients with potential ACS. Data included demographics, medical history, components of the TIMI risk score, and whether the treating physician ascribed the condition to an alternative noncardiac diagnosis. Investigators followed the patients through the hospital course, and 30-day follow-up was done. The main outcome was 30-day death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization. ResultsA total of 3169 patients were enrolled (mean age, 53.6 ± 14 years; 45% men; 67% black). There were 991 patients (31%) with an alternative diagnosis, 980 patients with a TIMI risk score of 0, and 828 with a TIMI score of 1. At low levels of TIMI risk (<3), adding in a clinical impression of an alternative diagnosis did not reduce risk; at higher levels of TIMI risk, it did. The incidence of 30-day death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization for patients with a clinical impression of an alternative diagnosis and a TIMI score of 0 was 2.9% (95% confidence interval, 1.6%-5.0%). ConclusionsThe TIMI risk score stratifies patients with and without an alternative diagnosis. Unfortunately, patients with both a low TIMI risk score and a clinical impression of an alternative noncardiac diagnosis still have a risk of 30-day adverse events that is not low enough to allow safe discharge from the ED.

The type of embolic protection does not influence the outcome in carotid artery stenting

The goal of this study was to review our experience with embolic protection devices (EPDs) during carotid artery stenting (CAS). Specifically, we aimed to verify their clinical effectiveness and to compare clinical outcomes between specific devices and types of EPDs. The CAS databases at four participating centers were reviewed. Adverse events were defined as death, stroke (>24 hours), or transient ischemic attack (TIA) (<24 hours). We compared the risk of procedural and 30-day events between patients treated with and without an EPD. We also compared these risks between different EPDs and between the different types of EPDs. A total of 3160 CAS procedures using nine EPDs were analyzed. The risk of a procedural adverse event was 0.9% in protected and 2.3% in unprotected procedures (P = .12). Compared with the most frequently used device (FilterWire, Boston Scientific, Natick, Mass), there was no significant difference in the risk of procedural adverse events for any of the other EPDs. There was, however, an increased risk of 30-day adverse events with the Accunet (Abbott Vascular, Redwood, Calif) filter compared with the FilterWire (relative risk [RR] 2.67, confidence interval [CI] 1.41 to 5.04, P = .005). Pairwise comparison of proximal occlusion balloons to filters, distal occlusion balloons to filters, and proximal to distal occlusion balloons revealed no significant difference in the risk of procedural or 30-day adverse events. There was no significant difference in risk of procedural events between eccentric and concentric filters, however, the relative risk of eccentric compared with concentric filters at 30 days was 0.59 (unadjusted, CI 0.38 to 0.92, P = .04). This difference was still apparent after adjustment for risk factors (RR 0.61, CI 0.39 to 0.95, P = .06), but not after adjustment for risk factors and stent-type [(open-cell vs closed-cell) RR 0.76, CI 0.47 to 1.22, P = .51]. The use of EPDs is associated with a low risk of procedural adverse events. We were unable to detect significant differences in risks of procedural adverse events between different devices or types of devices. We speculate that the observed differences seen at 30 days are largely attributable to differences in stent-type used.