Risk Factors For Short-term Prognosis Research Articles

Pathogenic spectrum and drug resistance of bloodstream infection in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia: a single centre retrospective study.

Bloodstream infection (BSI) represent a prevalent complication in haematological malignancies (HMs). Typically, Patients with BSI usually undergo empirical treatment pending pathogen identification. The timely and effective management of BSIs significantly influences patient prognosis. However, pathogen distribution in BSIs exhibits regional variation. In this study, we investigated the clinical characteristics, pathogen spectrum, drug resistance, risk factors of short-term prognosis and long-term prognostic factors of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients with BSI at Zhejiang Provincal People's Hospital. From 2019 to 2021, a total of 56 AML patients with BSI were treated in the Department of Haematology at Zhejiang Province People's Hospital. Data regarding pathogen spectrum and drug resistance were collected for analysis. The patients were stratified into non-survivor cohort and survivor cohort within 30 days after BSI, and the predictors of 30-days mortality were identified through both univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were employed to ascertain the risk factors associated with poor prognosis in AML patients complicated by BSI. A total of 70 strains of pathogenic bacteria were isolated from 56 AML patients with BSI. Gram-negative bacteria constituted the predominant pathogens (71.4%), with Klebsiella pneumoniae being the most prevalent (22.9%). Gram-positive bacteria and fungi accounted for 22.9% and 5.7%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed significant differences in total protein, albumin levels, and the presence of septic shock between the non-survivor cohort and the survior cohort 30 days post-BSI. COX regression analysis showed that agranulocytosis duration exceeding 20 days (HR:3.854; 95% CI: 1.451-10.242) and septic shock (HR:3.788; 95% CI: 1.729-8.299) were independent risk factors for poor prognosis in AML patients complicated by BSI. Notably, the mortality rate within 30 days after Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infection was up to 71.4%. In this study, Gram-negative bacteria, predominantly Klebsiella pneumoniae, constituted the primary pathogens among AML patients with BSIs. Serum albumin levels and the presence of septic shock emerged as independent risk factors for mortality within 30 days among AML patients with BSI. In terms of long-term prognosis, extended agranulocytosis duration exceeding 20 days and septic shock were associated with elevated mortality rates in AML patients with BSI. Additionally, in our centre, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infection was found to be associated with a poor prognosis. Early intervention for Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infection in our centre could potentially improve patient outcomes.

Analysis of risk factors of short-term prognosis in patients with severe Budd-Chiari syndrome

Objective: To explore the risk factors of short-term prognosis of severe BCS patients,established and verified the nomogram prediction model for these BCS patients and evaluated its clinical application value. Methods: This study is a retrospective cohort study. The clinical data of 171 patients with severe BCS diagnosed were retrospectively analyzed in the Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2018 to December 2023. There were 105 males and 66 females, aged (52.1±12.8) years (range: 18 to 79 years). The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they died within 28 days: the death group (n=38) and the survival group (n=133). The risk factors for short-term death of patients were analyzed,and independent risk factors were screened by univariate and multivariate analysis. Furthermore,these factors were used to establish the nomogram prediction model. The area under the curve(AUC),the Bootstrap Resampling,the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the Decision Curve Analysis(DCA) were used to verify the model's differentiation,internal verification,calibration degree and clinical effectiveness,respectively. Results: Univariate and multivariate Logistics regression analysis showed that the history of hepatic encephalopathy,white blood cell,glomerular filtration rate and prothrombin time are independent risk factors (P<0.05). The above factors were used to successfully establish the prediction model with 0.908 of AUC and 0.895 of the internal verification of AUC,indicating that the predictive model was valuable. The 0.663 P-values in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated the high calibration degree of the model. The clinical effectiveness of the model was proved by the 18% clinical benefit population using the DCA curve with the 17% probability threshold. Conclusions: The independent risk factors are the history of hepatic encephalopathy,white blood cell,glomerular filtration rate and prothrombin time. An adequate basis was acquired by establishing a nomogram prediction model of the short-term prognosis of severe BCS,which was helpful for early clinical screening and identification of high-risk patients with severe BCS who could die in the short term and timely providing timely intervention measures for improving the prognosis.

Risk factors for short-term prognosis of end-stage liver disease complicated by invasive pulmonary aspergillosis.

Patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) are susceptible to invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). This study aimed to investigate the risk factors affecting the occurrence and short-term prognosis of ESLD complicated by IPA. This retrospective case-control study included 110 patients with ESLD. Of them, 27 ESLD-IPA received antifungal therapy with amphotericin B (AmB); 27 AmB-free-treated ESLD-IPA patients were enrolled through 1:1 propensity score matching. Fifty-six ESLD patients with other comorbid pulmonary infections were enrolled as controls. The basic features of groups were compared, while the possible risk factors affecting the occurrence and short-term outcomes of IPA were analyzed. Data analysis revealed invasive procedures, glucocorticoid exposure, and broad-spectrum antibiotic use were independent risk factors for IPA. The 54 patients with ESLD-IPA exhibited an overall treatment effectiveness and 28-d mortality rate of 50.00% and 20.37%, respectively, in whom patients treated with AmB-containing showed higher treatment efficacy than patients treated with AmB-free antifungal regimens (66.7% vs. 33.3%, respectively, χ2 = 6.000, P = 0.014). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the treatment regimen was the only predictor affecting patient outcomes, with AmB-containing regimens were 4.893 times more effective than AmB-free regimens (95% CI, 1.367-17.515; P = 0.015). The only independent predictors affecting the 28-d mortality rate were neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and IPA diagnosis (OR = 1.140 and 10.037, P = 0.046 and 0.025, respectively). Glucocorticoid exposure, invasive procedures, and broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure increased the risk of IPA in ESLD patients. AmB alone or combined with other antifungals may serve as an economical, safe, and effective treatment option for ESLD-IPA.

Clinical characteristics and prognostic nomograms of 12555 non-severe COVID-19 cases with Omicron infection in Shanghai

BackgroundOmicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly become a global threat to public health. Numerous asymptomatic and mild cases had been admitted in shelter hospitals to quickly win the fight against Omicron pandemic in Shanghai. However, little is known about influencing factors for deterioration and length of stay (LOS) in hospitals among these non-severe cases.MethodsThis study included 12,555 non-severe cases with COVID-19 in largest shelter hospital of Shanghai, aiming to explore prognostic factors and build effective models for prediction of LOS.ResultsData showed that 75.0% of participants were initially asymptomatic. In addition, 94.6% were discharged within 10 days, only 0.3% with deterioration in hospitals. The multivariate analysis indicated that less comorbidities (OR = 1.792, P = 0.012) and booster vaccination (OR = 0.255, P = 0.015) was associated with the decreased risk of deterioration. Moreover, age (HR = 0.991, P < 0.001), number of symptoms (HR = 0.969, P = 0.005), time from diagnosis to admission (HR = 1.013, P = 0.001) and Cycle threshold (CT) values of N gene (HR = 1.081, P < 0.001) were significant factors associated with LOS. Based on these factors, a concise nomogram model for predicting patients discharged within 3 days or more than 10 days was built in the development cohort. In validation cohort, 0.75 and 0.73 of Areas under the curve (AUC) in nomograms, similar with AUC in models of simple machine learning, showed good performance in estimating LOS.ConclusionCollectively, this study not only provides important evidence to deeply understand clinical characteristics and risk factors of short-term prognosis in Shanghai Omicron outbreaks, but also offers a concise and effective nomogram model to predict LOS. Our findings will play critical roles in screening high-risk groups, providing advice on duration of quarantine and helping decision-makers with better preparation in outbreak of COVID-19.

Markers of right ventricular dysfunction predict 30-day adverse prognosis of pulmonary embolism on pulmonary computed tomographic angiography.

To investigate the value of parameters of the pulmonary artery and right ventricular function in predicting the 30-day poor prognosis of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). The heart rate, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, Wells score for APE, history of recent operation or immobilization, history of cancer, respiratory failure, smoking were significantly (P < .05) different among the control, good prognosis, and poor prognosis groups. The maximal short diameter of the right and left ventricle (RVD/LVD) ratio (P < .001) and left pulmonary artery (LPA) (P = .01) were significantly different between the good and poor prognosis groups. Systolic blood pressure (odds ratio [OR]: 0.98, P = .045) and the RVD/LVD ratio (OR: 12.57, P = .02) were significant independent risk factors for poor prognosis. The risk for poor prognosis significantly increased when the RVD/LVD ratio was >1.11 (cutoff value) with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-0.80, P < .001). LPA (OR: 9.12, P = .01) and RVD/LVD (OR: 4.62, P = .012) were the significant independent risk factors for poor prognosis in the central pulmonary embolism. The LPA of 2.1 cm had the highest predictive value for poor prognosis in the central APE (AUC: 0.68; sensitivity 84.6%; specificity 53.1%). The RVD/LVD ratio and systolic blood pressure are significant risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with APE. When the LPA is >2.1 cm in the central APE or the RVD/LVD is >1.11, the risk of poor prognosis increases, which can be used as important indicators for predicting the prognosis of patients with APE. Two hundred forty-three APE patients and 61 patients without APE who underwent computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) were retrospectively enrolled as the experimental and the control group, respectively. APE patients who were followed up at the 30-day time point were divided into the good prognosis (n = 195) and poor prognosis group (n = 32). The main pulmonary artery (MPA) to the aorta (AO) ratio, maximal diameter of the LPA and right pulmonary artery (RPA), ratio of the RVD/LVD and the height and volume of the pulmonary artery (PAh and PAV, respectively) were analyzed after indexing to the body surface area.

Analysis of Clinical Characteristic and Risk Factors for Short-Term Prognosis of Moyamoya Disease with Intraventricular Hemorrhage in Adults

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is the most common type of hemorrhage in moyamoya disease (MMD) with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), but the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis of MMD with IVH in adults are still unclear. We retrospectively analyzed patients of MMD with IVH between January 1, 2018 and January 31, 2020 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University. According to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months after discharge, the patients were divided into mRS score ≤2 (good prognosis) group and mRS score >2 (poor prognosis) groups. Univariate and multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis of adult MMD with IVH. Univariable analyses showed that patients in the poor prognosis group had a significantly older age of onset (48.48 ± 8.34 vs. 43.74 ± 5.44 years; P= 0.002), ahigher percentage of hypertension (57.97% vs. 33.33%; P= 0.014), a higher percentage of tracheotomy (23.19% vs. 2.56%; P= 0.005), a lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (7.90 ± 3.58 vs. 11.19 ± 2.56; P= 0.000), a higher Graeb score (7.46 ± 4.04 vs. 5.23 ± 1.93; P= 0.002), and treatment methods (P= 0.000). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the lower GCS score (odds ratio [OR],1.761; P= 0.001) and higher Graeb score (OR, 1.767; P= 0.002) were independently associated with the poor prognosis of MMD with IVH, and surgery treatment (OR,0.032; P= 0.000) was independently related to the good prognosis of MMD with IVH. Among patients with MMD with IVH, the lower GCS score and higher Graeb score are independent risk factors for poor prognosis, whereas in patients with MMD with IVH, surgery treatment acts as a protective factor.

Efficacy of Gamma Globulins in Children with Kawasaki Disease and Factors Influencing Children's Short-Term Prognosis.

Purpose To explore and analyze the therapeutic effect of gamma globulins (GG) on Kawasaki disease (KD) in children and the influencing factors of short-term prognosis. Methods First, 90 pediatric KD patients admitted between January 2019 and January 2021 were selected and divided into a control group (n = 40) and a research group (n = 50) according to the difference in treatment. In addition to routine treatment and nursing given to both groups, control group was given aspirin (ASA), based on which research group was supplemented with GG therapy. The treatment outcome and adverse events (AEs) of the two cohorts of patients were analyzed and compared, and the influencing factors of children's short-term prognosis were analyzed by logistics multivariate analysis. Results Research group had a statistical higher overall response rate than control group, with significantly fewer cases suffering from AEs such as nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, rash, dizziness and headache, and coronary artery injury. On the other hand, logistics multivariate analysis identified that gender, body mass index (BMI), onset time, platelet (PLT), and treatment mode all independently influence the short-term prognosis of children with KD. Conclusions GG therapy is effective in treating pediatric KD patients and can effectively prevent AEs. In addition, gender, BMI, onset-to-treatment time, PLT, C-reactive protein (CRP), and treatment methods are independent risk factors for short-term prognosis of children with KD.

Influencing factors for the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Objective To investigate the risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 119 patients with HBV-related ACLF who were admitted to Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2019 to October 2020, and according to their survival status on day 90, they were divided into death group and survival group. The patients were given antiviral therapy with entecavir or tenofovir. Related clinical data were collected, including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase, cholinesterase (ChE), albumin (Alb), cholesterol, alpha-fetoprotein, and HBV DNA at baseline, as well as the incidence rate of important complications. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was also calculated. The t-test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-squared test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups; a logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors for the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-related ACLF and establish a new predictive model; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the new model in predicting the prognosis of HBV-related ACLF. Results Of all patients, 33 died within 90 days, resulting in a mortality rate of 27.7%. There were significant differences between the survival group and the death group in age, ALT, Alb, ChE, MELD score, and incidence rates of hepatic encephalopathy, primary peritonitis, and hepatorenal syndrome (all P Conclusion As for the evaluation of the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-related ACLF, the new prognostic model established based on hepatic encephalopathy, Alb, and MELD score has a better predictive value than MELD score alone.

Value of a new predictive model in evaluating short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure

To establish a predictive model and investigate its value in evaluating short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). Patients with HBV-ACLF admitted to Tianjin Second People's Hospital and Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University from May 2015 to October 2018 were enrolled. The data of gender, age, laboratory markers at admission, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and clinical complications were collected for analysis. According to the prognosis on 12-week, patients were divided into survival group and death group. Univariate analysis and binary Logistic regression analysis were used to test the risk factors for short-term prognosis of the patients with HBV-ACLF, and a prediction model was established. The accuracy of each index and the established model were verified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 148 patients with HBV-ACLF were enrolled in the study, 91 cases survived while 57 cases died during the 12-week period. The age, total bilirubin (TBIL), neutrophil percentage (NEUT%), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), MELD score of death group were higher than those of survival group [age (years old): 50.00 (44.50, 55.00) vs. 43.00 (34.00, 53.00), TBIL (μmol/L): 310.30 (240.70, 405.70) vs. 266.40 (184.20, 360.20), NEUT%: (74.52±13.05)% vs. (66.64±12.35)%, lgHBsAg (kU/L): 3.72 (3.29, 3.92) vs. 2.97 (2.49, 3.78), MELD score: 24.27 (19.71, 27.40) vs. 21.88 (18.83, 24.38), all P < 0.05], while albumin (ALB), total cholesterol (CHO), prothrombin activity (PTA) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were lower than those of survival group [ALB (g/L): 29.80 (27.05, 31.05) vs. 30.80 (28.00, 33.90), CHO (mmol/L): 1.98 (1.50, 2.38) vs. 2.49 (2.05, 3.01), PTA: (30.37±7.09)% vs. (32.94±6.03)%, AFP (μg/L): 21.54 (9.28, 51.54) vs. 66.16 (24.50, 152.80), all P < 0.05]. Logistic regression analysis showed that NEUT%, HBsAg and AFP were independent risk factors for short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF [odds ratio (OR) was 77.843, 1.439, 0.995, respectively, all P < 0.05]. According to the results of regression analysis, the NHA-ACLF model (NEUT%+HBsAg+AFP) was established. The formula was logit (NHA-ACLF) = -5.441+5.688×NEUT%+0.430×lgHBsAg-0.005×AFP. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the NHA-ACLF model for pred HBV-ACLF patients was 0.790, which was better than NEUT% (AUC = 0.696), lgHBsAg (AUC = 0.670), AFP (AUC = 0.703) and MELD score (AUC = 0.640). When the cut-off value of NHA-ACLF model score was 0.459, the sensitivity was 73.7%, and the specificity was 79.1%. NEUT%, HBsAg and AFP are independent predictive indicator for short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF. Compared with MELD score, the risk assessment model NHA-ACLF has a greater value in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.

A prognostic model for hepatitis B acute-on-chronic liver failure patients treated using a plasma exchange-centered liver support system.

AimTo determine the prognostic risk factors of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (HBV‐ACLF) treated with plasma exchange (PE)‐based artificial liver support system (ALSS), and create a prognostic predictive model.MethodsA total of 304 HBV‐ACLF patients who received PE‐based ALSS were retrospectively analyzed. Potential prognostic factors on admission associated with survival were investigated. Of note, 101 additional patients were analyzed to validate the performance of the prognostic models.ResultsAccording to 28‐day survival, a total of 207 patients who survived and 97 non‐survivors were identified in the derivation group. Overall, 268 (88.2%) ACLF cases were caused by reactivation of HBV. Cox proportional hazards regression model revealed that age, total bilirubin, ln (alpha‐fetoprotein [AFP]), encephalopathy (HE) score, sodium level, and international normalized ratio (INR) were independent risk factors of short‐term prognosis. We built a model named ALSS‐prognosis model (APM) to predict the 28‐day survival of HBV‐ACLF patients with ALSS; the model APM showed potentially better predictive performance for both the derivation and validation groups than MELD, MELD‐Na, and CLIF‐C ACLF score.ConclusionsLow AFP was found to be an independent risk factor for high mortality in HBV‐ACLF patients treated with PE‐based ALSS. We generated a new model containing AFP, namely APM, which showed potentially better prediction performance than MELD, MELD‐Na, and CLIF‐C ACLF score for short‐term outcomes, and could aid physicians in making optimal therapeutic decisions.

Inflammatory markers for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction

Objective To investigate the potential of inflammatory markers for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. Methods A total of 272 consecutive patients with acute cerebral infarction were divided into a high hs-CRP group (hs-CRP level >3 mg/L) and a low hs-CRP group (hs-CRP level ≤3 mg/L), and their general information and medical history were collected. The Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) stroke subtype classification was conducted and scores of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the Barthel index (BI) and the modified Rankin scale (mRS) were collected after admission. White blood cell count, blood glucose, blood homocysteine (Hcy) and C-reactive protein were measured within 24 hours following admission. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. Results Between the high hs-CRP group and the low hs-CRP group, there were significant differences in the incidences of atrial fibrillation history, cardiogenic embolism of TOAST, blood homocysteine, blood glucose, white blood cell count, NIHSS, BI and mRS score 1, 7, 14 days after admission (P<0.05 for all). The hs-CRP level (OR=0.876, P<0.001, 95% CI: 0.817-0.917), white blood cell count (OR=1.137, P=0.029, 95% CI: 1.013-1.275), lipid metabolism disorders (OR=2.863, P<0.001, 95% CI: 1.561-5.250), and BI score (OR=1.038, P=0.047, 95% CI: 1.001-1.077) 1 day after stroke were independent risk factors for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. Conclusions Increased levels of the inflammatory marker hs-CRP and elevated white blood cell count may be independent risk factors for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. Key words: C-reactive protein; Brain infarction; Prognosis

Analysis of factors related to short-term prognosis in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction

The present study aimed to investigate the factors related to short-term prognosis in patients undergoing direct percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). A total of 805 patients were included and divided into a control group and an adverse cardiovascular events group based on the prognosis, to compare risk factors and coronary angiographic characteristics in the two groups. In the adverse events group, the ages, admission blood glucose, uric acid (UA), homocysteine (HCY), creatine kinase (CK) and peak creatine kinase-MB (CKMB) isozyme levels were clearly higher compared with those in the control group, while the levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TGs) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) were lower compared with those in the control group. The incidence of hypertension in females in the adverse events group was markedly higher compared with that in the control group, while the diabetes rate was lower compared with that in the control group. Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, gender, hypertension, diabetes and admission blood glucose, HCY, TC and UA levels were independent risk factors of short-term prognosis in patients undergoing emergency PCI. The majority of the patients in the adverse events group were elderly females with hypertension, a large area of myocardial infarction and increased admission blood glucose, UA and HCY levels, as well as a low diabetes rate and decreased levels of acute-phase TC and LDL.

Risk factors for short-term prognosis in elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Eighty-five elderly patients treated for the upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGB)in our hospital between January 2000 and December 2002 were divided into death or survival group.Their clinical characteristics,risk factors,treatment and complications were retrospectively analyzed.Eighteen patients died of UGB within 30 days.Univariate analysis indicated that documented diabetes,cardiovascular disease,cerebrovascular disease,gastric ulcer,hemoglobin,arrhythmia,stomach cancer,multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS),and shock were significantly associated with inhospital mortality within 30 days(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).Stomach cancer,MODS,and shock entered into the Logistic regression model.These findings demonstrate that stomach cancer,MODS,and shock might be independent risk factors for short-term prognosis in elderly UGB patients. Key words: Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage; Prognosis