Risk Factors For Long-term Outcome Research Articles

Association between the triglyceride glucose index and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the general population: analysis of the national health and nutrition examination survey 1999–2004

ObjectiveThe triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a reliable substitute indicator of insulin resistance (IR), is considered an independent risk factor for long-term outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease. However, studies investigating the association between TyG and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are limited and lack direct evidence. We aim to examine the relationship between the TyG index and ASCVD through a comprehensive cross-sectional study.MethodsOverall, 7212 participants from the 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included. The baseline TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting blood glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression, univariate logistic regression, and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the association between the TyG index and ASCVD.ResultsIn the overall population, a multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the TyG level was not only positively associated with ASCVD [OR (95%CI): 1.29 (1.01,1.64), P=0.042], coronary artery disease (CAD) [OR (95%CI): 1.82(1.33,2.48), P<0.001], and stroke [OR (95%CI): 2.68(1.54,4.69), P=0.002], but also linearly correlated with all three (P-overall<0.001; P-non-linear >0.05). Although the TyG index was not associated with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) [OR (95%CI): 1.00 (0.73,1.36), P>0.900], it showed a U-shaped correlation with PAD (P-overall <0.001; P-non-linear= 0.0085), and the risk of PAD was minimized when TyG=8.67. By incorporating the TyG index into the baseline risk model, the accuracy of ASCVD prediction was improved [AUC: baseline risk model, 0.7183 vs. baseline risk model + TyG index, 0.7203, P for comparison=0.034]. The results of the subgroup analysis were consistent with those of the main analysis.ConclusionThe TyG index was independently associated with ASCVD, CAD, and stroke, suggesting that it may serve as a valid indicator for predicting ASCVD in the entire population.

Postnatal Growth Assessment and Prediction of Neurodevelopment and Long-Term Growth in Very Low Birth Weight Infants: A Nationwide Cohort Study in Korea.

Background/Objectives: Extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) is associated with high mortality and an increased incidence of poor neurodevelopmental outcomes in preterm infants. In this study, we aimed to compare the Intergrowth-21ST (IG-21ST) and Fenton charts in predicting long-term neurodevelopmental and anthropometric outcomes of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Methods: Data were collected from 2649 VLBW infants registered in the Korean Neonatal Network born between 240/7 and 316/7 weeks of gestational age from January 2013 to December 2017. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 18-24 months of age, corrected for prematurity. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between EUGR and long-term outcomes. Results: Among the 2649 VLBW infants, 60.0% (1606/2649) and 36.9% (977/2649) were diagnosed as having EUGR defined by the Fenton chart (EUGRF) and by the IG-21ST chart (EUGRIG), respectively. The EUGRIG group exhibited a higher proportion of infants with cerebral palsy, neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), and growth failure. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusted for risk factors for long-term outcome, the EUGRIG group showed higher risk of cerebral palsy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-2.65), NDI (aOR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.71-2.55), and growth failure (aOR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.16-2.13). Infants with EUGRF tended to develop NDI (aOR, 1.29; 95%CI, 1.03-1.63) and experience growth failure (aOR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.77-3.40). Conclusions: The IG-21ST chart demonstrated a more effective prediction of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes, whereas the Fenton chart may be more suitable for predicting growth failure at 18-24 months.

Efficacy of high-dose-rate brachytherapy with different radiation source activities among cervical cancer patients and risk factors for long-term outcomes: A 6-year retrospective study

PURPOSEThis study aimed to assess the impact of dose rates due to natural decay of Iridium-192 sources and the risk factors of clinical outcomes for cervical cancer patients treated with high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy. METHODS AND MATERIALSFour ninety-four patients were divided into relatively-high-radioactive (rHR), relatively-medium-radioactive (rMR), and relatively-low-radioactive (rLR) groups for retrospective treatment response comparison. The short-term outcomes were evaluated using the 1-month /3-month follow-up results based on RECIST 1.1. Local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and metastatic recurrence-free survival (MRFS) were selected as long-term outcomes. A class of transformation models with adaptive lasso was applied to assess the risk factors of long-term outcomes. RESULTSNo significant difference was identified in short- or long-term outcomes of different radioactive groups. Subgroup analyses demonstrated similar findings. In multivariate factor analysis, advanced stage was significantly associated with higher risk of local recurrence and metastatic recurrence (HR = 1.66, 95%confidence interval [CI] = 1.14–2.43, p = 0.008; HR = 1.57, 95%CI = 1.23–2.00, p < 0.001). Significant associations were observed between local recurrence and pathology, and between metastatic recurrence and pre-treatment serum indices, respectively (HR = 8.62, 95%CI = 2.28–32.60, p = 0.002; HR = 1.98, 95%CI=1.20–2.26, p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONSOverall, there was no significant difference in long- or short-term efficacy of the HDR brachytherapy among the groups with different levels of activity of radiation sources. Stage, pathology, and pretreatment serum indices were crucial factors that affected the long-term outcomes.

Triglyceride-glucose index is associated with poor prognosis in acute coronary syndrome patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BackgroundThe triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, which is a reliable substitute indicator for insulin resistance, has been considered an independent risk factor for long-term outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease. However, it remains unknown whether the TyG index is associated with poor prognosis in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).MethodsA total of 1158 ACS patients with prior CABG undergoing PCI were retrospectively studied. The TyG index was calculated by ln[fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting blood glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and unplanned repeat revascularization.ResultsDuring a median of 42-month follow-up, 350 patients (30.2%) experienced at least one endpoint event. Based on the optimal cut-off value of the TyG index, patients were divided into the high TyG index group and the low TyG index group. Patients in the high TyG index group had higher risks of MACCE (35.3% vs. 25.3%, p < 0.001), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (31.1% vs. 23.4%, p = 0.003), nonfatal stroke (4.2% vs. 1.9%, p = 0.022) and unplanned repeat revascularization (19.4% vs. 11.3%, p < 0.001) than those in the low TyG index group. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that there was an independent association between the TyG index and MACCE regardless of whether the TyG index was a continuous or categorical variable (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09–1.86, p = 0.009; HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.16–2.01, p = 0.003, respectively). Restricted cubic spline curve exhibited that the relationship between the TyG index and MACCE was linear (p for non-linear = 0.595, p for overall = 0.005). By incorporating the TyG index groups into baseline risk model, the accuracy of predicting MACCE was improved [AUC: baseline risk model, 0.618 vs. baseline risk model + TyG index groups, 0.636, p for comparison = 0.042].ConclusionsThe TyG index is independently associated with MACCE, suggesting that the TyG index may serve as a valid indicator for predicting poor prognosis in ACS patients with prior CABG undergoing PCI.

Concomitant valve surgery is associated with worse outcomes in surgical treatments of post-infarction ventricular aneurysm.

To evaluate the impact of concomitant valve surgery on the prognosis of patients who experienced coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) with/without ventricular reconstruction for the ventricular aneurysm. In our department, 354 patients underwent CABG with/without ventricular reconstruction for a ventricular aneurysm from July 23rd, 2000 to December 23rd, 2022. A total of 77 patients received concomitant valve surgery, 37 of whom underwent replacement, and 40 of whom underwent repair. The baseline characteristics, prognostic, and follow-up information were statically analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to identify the risk factors of long-term outcomes. Compared with patients who did not undergo valvular surgery, patients who experienced concomitant valve surgical treatments had a significantly lower survival rate (p = 0.00022) and a longer total mechanical ventilation time. Subgroup analysis indicated that the options of repair or replacement exhibited no statistically significant difference in postoperative mortality (p = 0.44) and prognosis. The multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that the pre-operative cholesterol level (HR = 1.68), postoperative IABP (HR = 6.29), NYHA level (HR = 2.84), and pre-operative triglyceride level (HR = 1.09) were independent and significant predictors for overall all-cause mortality after surgery. Concomitant valve surgery was considerably related to a higher risk of postoperative mortality in patients with post-infarction ventricle aneurysms who underwent surgical treatments. No significant difference in the prognosis outcomes was observed between the operating methods of repair or replacement valve surgery.

Abstract 15015: Long Term Outcomes After Interrupted Aortic Arch Repair: A Study From the Pediatric Cardiac Care Consortium

Introduction: Interrupted aortic arch (IAA) is a congenital heart disease that can be successfully repaired. Children are at risk of multiple procedures and residual abnormalities. We used the Pediatric Cardiac Care Consortium (PCCC) to describe post-repair survival of patients with IAA. Methods: We queried the PCCC for patients receiving IAA repair 1982-2003. Death was ascertained from the PCCC and US National Death Index (NDI) to December 2019. Kaplan Meier (KM) plots and multivariable analysis assessed overall long-term survival and baseline characteristics associated with increased hazard of death post-repair. Results: We identified 380 patients (male 200; female 180) with IAA repair (excluding truncus arteriosus). Most had end-to-end anastomosis (n=234, 83.6%), 87 (31.1%) by interposition graft, and 47 (16.78%) by subclavian or carotid flap. There was no data for 11 patients. A total of 280 survived to discharge. Over a median of 22.9 years (IQR 19.78-27.52 years), 39 died. The 25-year survival post-discharge after repair was 86% (Figure 1). Type B2 IAA (aberrant right subclavian artery) was associated with increased death (aHR=1.814; 95% CI=0.891-3.694) versus non-type B IAA and cases with normal subclavians (A1+B1)) after adjusting for era, sex, presence of chromosomal anomalies, and type of surgery. Interposition graft was associated with increased hazard versus end-to end anastomosis (aHR=1.942; 95% CI=0.946-3.988) or vascular flaps (aHR=1.144; 95% CI=0.456-2.870). Other risk factors were female sex and chromosomal anomalies (DiGeorge syndrome primarily) (aHR = 1.948; 95% CI=0.946-4.011 and aHR=1.090; 95% CI=0.429-2.770). Conclusions: Patients with repaired IAA have decreased long-term survival. Female sex, chromosomal anomalies, type B IAA, aberrant right subclavian artery, and interposition graft were risk factors for poor long-term outcomes. Additional analysis of risk factors for long-term outcomes and causes of death is underway.

FIB-4 index and liver fibrosis are risk factors for long-term outcomes in atrial fibrillation-related stroke

ObjectiveLiver fibrosis (LF) is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with ischemic stroke (IS). We aimed to assess whether LF affects long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation-related stroke or such effects vary according to sex. MethodsWe conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of Korean patients with atrial fibrillation-related IS. We calculated the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and LF degree was categorized into two groups (non-advanced vs. advanced) based on the FIB-4 index. Recurrent IS, major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), and all-cause mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard model. ResultsA total of 2897 patients were included; the median age was 75 (interquartile range 68–80) years, and 51.8% were men. The median follow-up period was 16.3 months. Of these patients, 23% had advanced LF indicated by FIB-4 index. Multivariable analysis in all populations demonstrated that the FIB-4 index and advanced LF were significantly associated with MACEs and all-cause mortality but not with recurrent IS. Furthermore, a sex disparity was observed in the outcomes of the patients. A high FIB-4 index in men was a significant predictor of recurrent IS [subdistribution hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.08 (1.02–1.14)]. However, the significance of advanced LF disappeared in MACEs in women and in all-cause mortality in men. ConclusionThe FIB-4 index and advanced LF indicated by FIB-4 index are independent prognostic factors for long-term outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation-related IS. However, these predictors may contribute differently to patient outcomes depending on the sex.

Life Expectancy in Long-Term Survivors Transplanted for Myelofibrosis: A Registry Study from the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation

Background: myelofibrosis is a rare hematological malignancy which can be cured by hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and many studies are showing that 3 to 5-year survival after HSCT is between 45 to 70% in relative standard condition (chronic phase disease, HLA matched donor). Relapse and transplant-related mortality are more frequent the first 2 years post HSCT. To optimize the long-term management of these patients, we raised the question of long-term outcome in patients surviving in remission at least 2 years after HSCT. Furthermore, that's a recurrent question from the patient to know if his life expectancy can reach the general population one many years after transplant.Method: from the EBMT registry, patients transplanted from 1995 to 2014 with a diagnosis of primary or secondary myelofibrosis even if the disease was transformed into acute myeloid leukemia (AML) at any point before the transplant were included. Only countries performing at least 20 transplants for this indication during the period were included. Among the 2461 patients from 15 countries fulfilling these criteria, 1245 and 650 were alive at 2 and 5 years, respectively. Overall survival was compared to an age, sex, year and country matched population. Excess mortality was defined as the difference between the observed mortality in the myelofibrosis patients and the mortality in a matched population and represents mortality specifically due to myelofibrosis and its treatment. Multivariable cox models for excess mortality were calculated for all patients, patients alive at the 2 and at the 5 year landmarks after transplant.Results: median age at time of transplant was 55 years (from 19 to 76 years); 1906 (77%) patients had primary myelofibrosis, 421 (17%) secondary myelofibrosis and 134 (6%) were transformed into acute myeloid leukemia (AML) at time of transplant. A reduced intensity conditioning regimen was used in 1503 (63%) patients and the majority of patients (87%) received peripheral blood stem cell transplant. 1024 (43%) patients were transplanted from an HLA-matched sibling donor. The majority of events (death, relapse) occurred the first 2 years of transplant. Two-year cumulative incidence of relapse and non-relapse mortality was 23% (95%CI: 21-25%) and 26% (95%CI: 25-28%). The multivariable Cox model for the excess mortality for the whole cohort (without landmark) finds that myelofibrosis transformed into AML (HR: 1.7, p<0.0001), irradiation in regimen (HR 1.3, p=0.002), the use of a non-HLA matched sibling donor (HR 1.3, p<0.0001) and the age (p<0.0001) were all significantly associated with a worse survival. On the other hand, female gender was associated with an improved outcome (HR 0.9, p=0.055).We also analyzed long-term outcome after the 2 and 5 year landmarks. Survival at 8 years for patients alive 2 years after transplant was 69% representing an excess of mortality as compared to the matched population (Figure 1). 5-year survival for patients alive 5 years after transplant was 84% (Figure 2). With the 5-year landmark, cumulative incidence of relapse was 13% and non-relapse mortality was 8% 5 years later. Regarding primary causes of deaths with the 5-year landmark, there were 24 relapses/progressions from the primary disease, 13 other malignancies, 12 GVHD, 13 infections, 1 toxicity and 17 unknown causes. In patients alive at the 2 year landmark, female gender was strongly associated with a better outcome (HR 0.7, p=0.018), as well as the advancing age (HR 1.03, p<0.0001). None of the other risk factors had a significant effect in this landmark population. In patients alive at the 5 year landmark, gender (HR: 0.4, p=0.026) and age (HR: 1.04; p=0.028) were confirmed as associated independently with a better outcome (HR 0.44). Figures 3 and 4 show overall survival by age and recipient gender, compared to the respective matched populations.Conclusion: long-term analysis in patients transplanted for myelofibrosis shows that there is still an excess mortality as compared to matched population but this excess of mortality is lower in younger patients and in women. Variables related to transplant procedures (type of donor, TBI) are no more risk factors for long-term outcome. [Display omitted] DisclosuresSchetelig:Sanofi Aventis: Consultancy, Research Funding; Roche: Honoraria; Abbvie: Honoraria; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria. Robinson:Riemser: Consultancy; Roche: Honoraria, Other: Travel Grants; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Travel Grants; Gilead: Honoraria, Other: Travel Grants.

Prospective Outcomes of Injury Study 10 Years on (POIS-10): An Observational Cohort Study

Injury is a leading cause of disability and is costly. This prospective cohort study extension aims to improve disability, health, and wellbeing outcomes for injured New Zealanders, including for Māori. We will identify predictors and modifiable risk factors of long-term outcomes (positive and negative), and develop an Injury Early Care Tool (INJECT) to inform the implementation of effective interventions to improve outcomes. In the Prospective Outcomes of Injury Study (POIS), 2856 people participated following an injury (occurring between 2007 and 2009) registered with New Zealand’s no-fault accident compensation scheme (ACC). POIS-10 will invite 2121 people (including 358 Māori) who completed a 24-month POIS interview and agreed to follow-up, anticipating 75% participation (n = 1591). Interviews will collect sociodemographic characteristics, life events, comorbidities, and new injuries since participants’ 24-month interview, as well as key disability, health, and wellbeing outcomes 12 years post-injury. Injury-related data will be collected from ACC and hospitalisation records 12 years post-injury. Regression models for the main outcomes will examine the direct effects of predictor variables after adjustment for a wide range of confounders. POIS-10 is enhanced by our partnership with ACC, and expert advisors and will benefit injured people, including Māori, through increased understanding of mechanisms and interventions to improve long-term post-injury outcomes.

Clinical and Genetic Risk Factors of Long-Term Outcomes after Encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis in Moyamoya Disease in China

ObjectivesThis retrospective study was conducted to analyze the associations between ring finger protein 213 p.R4810K variant, clinical features and long-term outcomes in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD) after encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis treatment. Materials and MethodsA total of 2,545 patients with MMD in China were included in this study (median of follow-up duration: 32.00 months). Multiple Cox regression models were used to assess the associations between p.R4810K variant, clinical features and long-term outcomes. ResultsFor all patients, in multivariate Cox analysis, no association was observed between p.R4810K and long-term outcomes. Pediatric onset (HR, 0.38; 95%CI, 0.25-0.59) and headache (HR, 0.26; 95%CI, 0.08-0.83) were inversely and hypertension (HR, 1.43 95%CI, 1.06-1.94), diabetes (HR, 1.55; 95%CI, 1.00-2.40), bilateral lesions (HR, 2.73; 95%CI, 1.12-6.65) and posterior cerebral artery involvement (HR, 1.44; 95%CI, 1.08-1.90) were positively associated with follow-up stroke (all P < 0.05). Pediatric onset (HR, 0.46; 95%CI, 0.26-0.82) was inversely and hyperlipidemia (HR, 1.83; 95%CI, 1.23-2.73), smoking (HR, 1.86; 95%CI, 1.13-3.07), high Suzuki angiographic stage (HR, 1.71, 95%CI, 1.09-2.70), poor admission neurologic status (HR, 8.93; 95%CI, 6.49-12.29) and follow-up stroke (HR, 8.31; 95%CI, 6.01-11.49) were positively associated with poor neurologic outcome at the last follow-up visit (all P < 0.05). The factors were not consistent in the different groups of age at onset. ConclusionsIn our study, p.R4810K may play no role in long-term outcomes in Chinese MMD. Clinical features including age at onset, initial symptoms, risk factors of stroke, imaging, poor admission neurologic status were associated with poor outcomes in MMD after EDAS.

Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke and Associated Factors Among Elderly Patients With Large-Artery Atherosclerosis: A Hospital-Based Follow-Up Study in China.

Large-artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke is the most common subtype of ischemic stroke. However, risk factors for long-term outcomes of LAA stroke in the elderly Chinese population have not been well-described. Therefore, we aimed to assess outcomes and risk factors at 3, 12, and 36 months after LAA stroke onset among stroke patients aged 60 years and older. All consecutive LAA patients aged ≥ 60 years were prospectively recruited from Dongying People's Hospital between January 2016 and December 2018. The clinical features and outcome data at 3, 12, and 36 months after stroke were collected. Differences in outcomes and relationship between outcomes and risk factors were assessed. A total of 1,772 patients were included in our study (61.7% male, 38.3% female). The rates of mortality, recurrence, and dependency were 6.6, 12.6, and 12.6%, respectively, at 3 months after stroke onset. The corresponding rate rose rapidly at 36 months (23.2, 78.7, and 79.7%, respectively). We found the positive predictors associated outcomes at 3, 12, and 36 months after stroke onset. The relative risk (RR) with 95% confidential interval (CI) is 1.06 (1.02–1.10, P = 0.006) at 3 months, 1.06 (1.02–1.10, P = 0.003) at12 months, and 1.10 (1.05–1.15, P < 0.001) at 36 months after stroke onset for age; 1.09 (1.01–1.19, P = 0.029) at 12 months for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level; 4.25 (2.14–8.43, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 4.95 (2.70–9.10, P < 0.001) at 12 months, and 4.82 (2.25–10.32, P < 0.001) at 36 months for moderate stroke; 7.56 (3.42–16.72, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 11.08 (5.26–23.34, P < 0.001) at 12 months, and 14.30 (4.85–42.11, P < 0.001) at 36 months for severe stroke, compared to mild stroke. Hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) level was an independent risk factor for mortality at different follow-up times, with the RR (95%) of 1.02 (1.01–1.02, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 1.01 (1.00–1.02, P = 0.002) at 12 months. White blood cell count (WBC) level was associated with both stroke recurrence (RR = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01–1.18, P = 0.023) and dependency (RR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.02–1.19, P = 0.018) at 3 months. In contrast, a higher level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) within the normal range was a protective factor for recurrence and dependency at shorter follow-up times, with the RR (95%) of 0.67 (0.51–0.89, P = 0.005) and 0.67 (0.50–0.88, P = 0.005), respectively. These findings suggest that it is necessary to control the risk factors of LAA to reduce the burden of LAA stroke. Especially, this study provides a new challenge to explore the possibility of lowering LDL-C level for improved stroke prognosis.

The PRIORITY study - PRedictIng long term Outcomes afteR Isolated coronary arTery bypass surgerY

The allocation of clinical and economic resources is an emerging issue in health management. A useful update necessarily depends on the evaluation of long-term outcomes of clinical and surgical resources that can permit emphasis on all amendable fields, improve quality of care, and reduce health costs. The PRIORITY (PRedictIng long term Outcomes afteR Isolated coronary arTery bypass surgerY) study represents the first innovative step toward the updating of health management in a selected field, surgery for coronary artery disease, which is one of the most prevalent diseases and requires allocation of high-cost resources, although information on long-term outcomes is limited. The aims of the PRIORITY study are the identification of preoperative risk factors for long-term outcomes and the development of clinical and administrative preoperative scores that can guide clinicians and the national health system to more appropriate actions for increasing quality of care and reducing costs.

Predictors of clinical outcome following revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

The underlying theme throughout this series of studies authored by the Multicenter anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) Revision Study consortium has been to determine the modifiable predictors or risk factors of long-term outcomes of revision ACL reconstruction. The observational studies described and summarized in the manuscript are both clinically relevant and of great interest in finding out the long-term consequences of the intervention and its relationship to the original injury. The successful completion of these studies has important implications for both therapy and future clinical trials. The identification of modifiable risk factors will play an important role in secondary prevention, while the identification of nonmodifiable risk factors will aid us in counseling our patients and making surgical decisions. Thus, we expect a profound clinical impact on patients' care. More importantly, this project represents an important step forward in bringing evidence to bear in clinical decision making in orthopedic surgery.

Long-Term Outcomes and Sequelae for 464 COVID-19 Patients Discharged from Leishenshan Hospital in Wuhan, China

Background: While coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a global pandemic, millions of COVID-19 patients have recovered and returned to their families and work, although the long-term outcomes remain unknown.Methods: This retrospective–prospective study analysed data for COVID-19 patients discharged from Leishenshan Hospital in Wuhan, China. Long-term outcomes were measured by Activity of Daily Living (ADL) Scale, Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnoea Scale, New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS), Carcinologic Handicap Index (CHI), and Modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-M). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the risk factors of long-term outcomes.Findings: The follow-up period for the 464 patients was August 10–September 30, 2020. The most common sequelae were psychosocial problems (254 [57·7%]), respiratory function abnormality (149 [32·6%]), and cardiac function abnormality (98 [21·5%]). Rare sequelae were ADL disability (61 [13·3%]); pain (55 [12·5%]); feeding difficulties (54 [12·2%]); dysphonia (46 [10·4%]); and hyposmia (27 [6·1%]), as well as impairment in hearing (40 [9·1%]), vison (37 [8·4%]), swallowing (30 [6·8%]), and gustation (18 [4·1%]). Almost all patients (98·2%) had normal cognitive function. Risk factors associated with ADL disability were advanced age, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and cancer, which were also associated with respiratory function abnormality. Risk factors associated with cardiac function abnormality were long hospital stay, cancer, and respiratory diseases. Advanced age, ICU stay, and nonischemic heart diseases were associated with psychosocial problems. Compared with female patients, male patients had decreased odds of declined respiratory, cardiac function, depression and anxiety, and pain.Interpretation: Nearly normal ADL, moderate cardiopulmonary function and psychosocial issues, and minor sensory abnormalities were observed in COVID-19 survivors. Advanced age, ICU stay, cancer, and female sex were adverse risk factors in long-term sequelae. These data provide a generalisable estimate of long-term outcomes for COVID-19.Trial Registration: This study was registered in the ClinicalTrial.gov database (NCT04508712).Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai Shenkang Hospital Development Center, Shanghai municipal Education Commission, State Key Laboratoy of Neuroscience, and Renji Hospital.Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the Institutional Research Ethics Committee of Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University (Ethical Committee approval number: KY2020-34). Oral consent was acquired from patients or from their immediate family members in cases of communication disorder or death.

Low hematocrit levels: a risk factor for long-term outcomes in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation after cardiovascular surgery. A retrospective study

While low-risk patients who undergo elective surgery can tolerate low hematocrit levels, the benefits of higher hematocrit levels might outweigh the risk of transfusion in high-risk patients. Therefore, this study...

Surgical outcome evaluation and prediction analysis of laparoscopic left sided hepatectomy for hepatolithiasis

Objective: To explore the risk factors of long-term treatment outcomes and establish predicting model for laparoscopic left hepatectomy in hepatolithiasis. Methods: Clinical data of 108 patients with hepatolithiasis who underwent laparoscopic left sided hepatectomy and with complete follow-up data were retrospectively collected from June 2011 to June 2016 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University. Twenty-six males and 82 females were enrolled. The age was (52.4±11.7) years (range:20-80 years) , and the median follow-up time was 36 months (range: 24-83 months) . Patients were randomly divided into training group (79 cases) and validation group (29 cases) with a ratio of about 3∶1. Twenty-five preoperative and intraoperative clinical factors were selected for potential factors that might affect long-term outcomes, and quality of life was used as an surrogate evaluation index. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to investigate the potential risk factors, and to construct and validate the predictive nomogram for surgical outcomes. Results: Among 108 patients, 10 patients (9.3%) had residual stones, 8 patients (7.4%) had recurrent stones, 12 patients (11.1%) had recurrent cholangitis and 3 patients (2.8%) died. Univariate analysis showed that history of hepatobiliary surgery, gender, activation of partial thromboplastin time, alkaline phosphatase, use of choledochoscopy, postoperative stone residual, serum creatinine, postoperative biliary drainage and operation time were risk factors that may affect long-term outcomes (all P<0.15) . Multivariate analysis showed that the history of previous hepatobiliary surgery (OR=2.305, 95% CI: 0.383-4.227, P=0.019) , postoperative biliary drainage (OR=2.043, 95% CI: 0.182-4.209, P=0.048) , operation time ≥262.5 minutes (OR=1.971, 95% CI: 0.154-4.023, P=0.045) were independent risk factor affecting long-term outcomes. Based on the above factors, the predictive nomogram model was constructed. Internal and external validations showed good discrimination (area under the curve of receiver operating curve>0.7) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P>0.05) performance, which indicated that the prediction effect was favorable. Conclusions: History of previous hepatobiliary surgery, postoperative biliary drainage and operation time ≥262.5 minutes are independent risk factors for long-term outcome. The predictive nomogram model based on risk factors relates to surgical outcomes presented good clinical predictive effects, which might contribute to the prediction of the long-term outcomes of laparoscopic left sided hepatectomy for hepatolithiasis.

A Retrospective Propensity Score Matched Study of the Preoperative C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio and Prognosis in Patients with Resectable Non-Metastatic Breast Cancer

BackgroundA retrospective study aimed to investigate the association between the CRP to albumin ratio and prognosis in patients with resectable non-metastatic breast cancer in terms of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) using propensity score matching.Material/MethodsPatients with newly diagnosed resectable non-metastatic breast cancer (n=200) who underwent modified radical mastectomy between January 2008 to June 2013 included a group with an increased CRP to albumin ratio ≥0.029 (n=80) and a group with reduced CRP to albumin ratio <0.029 (n=120). Propensity score matching was used to estimate the prognostic role of the CRP to albumin ratio, and a 1: 1 matching using four covariates was performed to overcome selection bias. The prognostic significance of the CRP to albumin ratio was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model were conducted to identify the impact on DFS and OS.ResultsAn increased CRP to albumin ratio was associated with increased age, post-menopausal status, and a high risk of recurrence or death in patients with breast cancer. An increased preoperative CRP to albumin ratio was significantly associated with reduced disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that an increased CRP to albumin ratio was an independent risk factor for long-term outcome and predicted reduced DFS (HR, 2.225; P=0.024) and OS (HR, 9.189; P=0.003).ConclusionsPreoperative evaluation of the CRP to albumin ratio was an independent prognostic indicator in patients with resectable breast cancer.

Outcome of kidney transplantation with graft from intracerebral hemorrhage donors

Objective: To analyze the data of kidney transplantation with allografts from intracerebral hemorrhage donors of China donation after citizen's death (CDCD) and provide evidence to guide the clinical practice. Methods: The clinical data of CDCD donors (age ≥10 years)and corresponding kidney allograft recipients, which were done by Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University during January 1 2013 to December 31 2017, were analyzed retrospectively. Results: 327 CDCD cases were analyzed, the number and percentage of intracerebral hemorrhage donors were gradually increasing and the percentage reached to 39.5% in 2017. The discarding rateof kidney allografts donated by intracerebral hemorrhage donors was higher than those donated by non-intracerebral hemorrhage donors, but intracerebral hemorrhage donor may not be a risk factor for DGF after the rigorous evaluation of kidney allografts. For 145 primary recipients transplanted in 2016 and had a 22±4 month follow-up, the recipients accepted the kidney from intracerebral hemorrhage donors had a higher level of serum creatinine[(130±60)μmol/L vs (111±38) μmol/L,P<0.05]and a lower eGFR[(61±23) ml·min(-1)·(1.73m(2))(-1) vs (70±23) ml·min(-1)·(1.73m(2))(-1),P<0.05] compared to the recipients accepted the kidney from non-intracerebral hemorrhage donors. Conclusion: The number and percentage of organ donation from intracerebral hemorrhage donor is increasing, but the intracerebral hemorrhage donor may be a risk factor for long-term outcome of kidney transplantation.

MRI morphologic and clinicopathologic characteristics for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

The aim of this study was to investigate the value of MRI morphologic and clinicopathologic factors for predicting 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this retrospective study, pre- and post-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) MRI morphologic (e.g., pre-nCRT MRI-detected extramural venous invasion) and clinicopathologic variabilities (e.g., pathological complete response) were evaluated in all patients. Three-year DFS was estimated using Kaplan-Meier product-limit method, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations between morphologic or clinicopathologic variabilities and survival outcomes. A total of 115 patients (39 females and 76 males; median age, 54years; age range, 28-82years) with LARC treated with nCRT were enrolled. With a median follow-up of 48.0months, the 3-year DFS was 79.0% for all patients. During follow-up, 18 patients died, 28 patients experienced relapse (26 distant, one local, and one both), and 69 patients were censored. MRI-detected extramural venous invasion (mrEMVI) was the only significantly independent factor of long-term survival, while HR was 2.308 (95% CI 1.151-4.629, P = 0.018) on univariate and 2.495 (95% CI 1.243-5.012, P = 0.010) on multivariate analysis. The 3-year cumulative survival rate in patients with mrEMVI negativity compared with positivity were 86.6% versus 65.0% (P = 0.015), respectively. In conclusion, pre-nCRT mrEMVI status was the independent significant risk factor for long-term outcomes in LARC patients treated with nCRT, while the other morphologic and clinicopathologic characteristics were not related to the patient survival.

Short-Term Clinical Response to Corticosteroids Can Predict Long-Term Natural History of Ulcerative Colitis: Prospective Study Experience.

Long-term outcome and natural history of steroid response in adult ulcerative colitis patients based on short-term response is largely unknown. To evaluate whether short-term clinical response at 30 days after steroid initiation for moderate to severe disease can predict long-term outcome. This prospective observational study recruited 161 patients who received oral/intravenous steroid therapy at our institution from April 2005 to July 2009. Short-term response at 30days and long-term response at the end of first and third years were measured. Risk factors for long-term outcome at 1 and 3years were analyzed by multivariate regression model. At the end of 30days, 90 patients (55.9%) had complete response, 47 (29.2%) partial response, and 24 (14.9%) did not respond at all. At the end of first year, 53/90 (60%) complete responders (at 30days) maintained steroid-free remission when compared to 17/71 (23.9%, p<0.001) partial/no responders. Similar result was observed at the end of third year (74.7 vs 55.1%, p=0.017). On multivariable analysis, short-term outcome at 30days was a predictor of outcome at the end of one year (RR4.1, 95% CI 2.2-8.5) and 3years (RR2.1, 95% CI 1.02-4.5). Short-term response to steroids is a strong predictor of long-term outcome at 1 and 3 years in active ulcerative colitis patients.