Risk Factors For post-ERCP Pancreatitis Research Articles

HPB SO04 - Assessing the risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis and procedure abandonment at a single centre in the UK

Abstract Background Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a common procedure with many uses. Due to limited expertise and resources, opportunities to perform this procedure should be made as productive as possible and the risks of procedure abandonment should be minimised. ERCP is also associated with a risk of pancreatitis and other significant sequelae. This study aimed to assess the risk factors associated with early procedure abandonment and post-ERCP pancreatitis. Method The notes from patients who underwent ERCP between June and November 2023 were retrospectively analysed. Data regarding procedure completion and post-ERCP pancreatitis were collected. The rates of procedure abandonment and post-ERCP pancreatitis among various groups were statistically analysed using N-1 Chi-squared tests. Results 176 patients were included in this study, of which 95 were female and 81 were male. 18 (10.2%) procedures were abandoned early and 11 (6.3%) patients suffered post-ERCP pancreatitis. 8 (7.8%) of the 103 patients aged over 70 had their procedure abandoned early and 1 (0.97%) suffered post-ERCP pancreatitis. 10 (13.7%) of the 73 patients aged below seventy had their procedure abandoned early and 8 (11.0%) suffered post-ERCP pancreatitis. N-1 Chi-squared analysis revealed that patients under 70 were more likely to suffer post-ERCP pancreatitis (P = 0.003) and females were more likely to suffer early procedure abandonment (P = 0.0330). Conclusion Younger patients were significantly more likely to suffer post-ERCP pancreatitis while female patients carried a greater risk of early procedure abandonment. Younger patients should therefore have clear safety netting over the risks of pancreatitis during the consent taking process and may benefit from more rigorous post-procedure monitoring. The reasons underpinning why female patients were more likely to have their procedure terminated early should be explored in greater detail so that measures minimising this risk may be implemented.

Pancreatic steatosis is a strong risk factor for post-ERCP pancreatitis: An emerging concept

ObjectiveThe Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the treatment of choice for biliary obstruction but is associated with post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) in around 5 % of cases. No radiological criteria have been evaluated for predicting PEP risk. DesignThis retrospective study examined records of 1365 patients who underwent ERCP at our center between 2014–2023. Only sphincterotomy-naïve patients were included. CT scans within 30 days of ERCP were reviewed for radiological criteria. The optimal pancreatic density cut-off was determined using AUROC and Youden index. Logistic regression was used for analyses. ResultsPEP occurred in 75 patients (6.1 %). The CT scan was performed before ERCP for 565 of the total population. A fatty pancreas, defined as a spontaneous density less than -50HU, was statistically associated with PEP (OR: 7.35; 95 % CI: 1.56–26.5 p = 0.004), as well as with biliary obstruction due to stones (OR: 0.61; 95 % CI: 0.38–0.98; P = 0.04), the need for precut (OR: 2.19; 95 % CI: 1.35–3.51; P = 0.001), cannulation of the main pancreatic duct (OR: 2.23; 95 % CI: 1.36–3.59; P = 0.001), and the use of a pancreatic stent (OR: 2.48; 95 % CI: 1.29–4.47; P = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, only obstruction unrelated to gallstones (OR = 2.63; 95 % CI: 1.16–6.25; P = 0.024) and a low pancreatic density (<-50HU) (OR=7.94, 95 %CI: 1.59–31.09; P = 0.005) remains significantly associated with the risk of PEP, including after adjustment for age and sex (P = 0.006). ConclusionA very low pancreatic fat density could be a significant risk factor for post-ERCP pancreatitis with potential clinical and research implications. Further validation is needed.

The Impact of Difficult Biliary Cannulation on Post-ERCP Pancreatitis: A Secondary Analysis of the Stent versus Indomethacin Trial Dataset

Background and AimsDifficult biliary cannulation (DBC) is a known risk factor for developing post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). To better understand how DBC increases PEP risk, we examined the interplay between technical aspects of DBC and known PEP risk factors. MethodsThis was a secondary analysis of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing rectal indomethacin alone with the combination of rectal indomethacin and prophylactic pancreatic duct (PD) stent placement for PEP prophylaxis in high-risk patients. Participants were categorized into 3 groups: 1) DBC with high pre-procedure risk for PEP, 2) DBC without high pre-procedure risk, and 3) non-DBC at high pre-procedure risk. ResultsIn all, 1601 (84.1%) participants experienced DBC, which required a mean of 12 (SD 10) cannulation attempts and mean duration of 14.7 minutes (SD 14.9). PEP rate was highest (20.7%) in DBC with high pre-procedure risk, followed by non-DBC with high pre-procedure risk (13.5%) and then DBC without high pre-procedure risk (8.8%). Increasing number of PD-wire passages (aOR:1.97, 95% CI:1.25-3.1) was associated with PEP in DBC, but PD injection, pancreatic sphincterotomy and number of cannulation attempts were not associated with PEP. Combining indomethacin with PD stenting lowered PEP risk (aOR:0.61, 95% CI:0.44-0.84) in DBCs. This protective effect was evident in up to at least 4 PD wire passages. ConclusionsDBC confers higher PEP risk in additive fashion to pre-procedural risk factors. PD wire passages appear to add the greatest PEP risk in DBCs, but combining indomethacin with PD stenting reduces this risk, even with increasing PD wire passages.

Risk factors for acute pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a retrospective single-center study

Background. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is an important procedure in the diagnosis and management of pancreaticobiliary diseases. Post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) is the most common and serious adverse event after ERCP. Purpose – to evaluate retrospectively PEP incidence and to identify independent risk factors of PEP. Materials and Methods. The analysis of 578 ERCP cases was done. A number of potential risk factors for PEP were taken into uni- and multivariate analisys: age, gender, common bile duct (CBD) size, bilirubin level, presence of cholangitis, Sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), malignant biliary obstruction, chronic pancreatitis, biliary obstruction, history of cholecystectomy, history of endoscopic papillosphincterotomy (EPST), initial ERCP success, therapeutic success, selective biliary cannulation, pancreatic cannulation/injection, Precut and EPST. Results. PEP was in 29 (5%) cases. Six factors with р &lt; 0,05 by univariate analysis (CBD ≤ 10 mm, normal bilirubin level, SOD, history of cholecystectomy, pancreatic cannulation/injection, precut) were included into multivariate logistic regression model. The independent risk factor for PEP were CBD ≤ 10 mm (OR 2,416; 95% ДІ, 1,037–5,629; p = 0,041), SOD (OR 4,107; 95% ДІ, 1,726–9,771; p = 0,001) та pancreatic cannulation/injection (OR 3,447; 95% ДІ, 1,455–8,166; p = 0,005); and precut was an independent protective factor for PEP (OR 0,129; 95% ДІ, 0,047–0,354; p = 0,014). Conclusions. The incidence of PEP was 5%. Small CBD and SOD are independent PEP risk factors as well as pancreatic cannulation/injection. Early precut technique is an independent factor preventing PEP.

The most dangerous factors for pancreatitis after ERCP – systematic review with a prevention approach

Summary Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis is the most prevalent and harmful side effect of diagnostic and therapeutic ERCP. Identifying high risk patients and subsequent selection of alternative diagnostic methods needs a multifactorial study of PEP (post-ERCP pancreatitis) risk variables. To determine the most hazardous PEP-related variables, a systematic study was conducted. In order to find relevant studies published between 1/1/2017 and 1/10/2022, two independent researchers conducted searches (MT, SH R). A literature search of English language publications was conducted using MEDLINE through PubMed, EMBASETM through Ovid, the Cochrane Library, and Trip. In addition to Magiran and SID, we searched KoreaMed and LILACS for literature published in other languages. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography OR Pancreatitis OR Risk factors OR ERCP OR Systematic review were used in the search strategy. A total of 174 studies were selected. After analyzing their compliance with the required criteria, a final review of five studies was conducted. This article presents the current findings on the most critical risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis. The most frequent ERCP operation side effect is PEP, which concerns individuals with high-risk factors. There is significant debate over PEP‘s pathophysiology. Due to its complex pathophysiology, PEP prevention should include a variety of criteria, including patient-related risk factors, pharmacological prophylaxis, and procedural methods. The patient‘s age, gender, and previous history of the disease are the most critical risk factors for pancreatitis after ERCP. Keywords pancreatitis, endoscopic retrograde cholangiography, risk factors, ERCP, PEP,

Does the Use of Potential Pancreatotoxic Drugs Increase the Risk of Post-Endoscopic Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis?

Background and Aim: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a valuable procedure for pancreatobiliary disorders but carries significant risks, including post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). The exact cause of PEP is unclear, but mechanical and thermal injuries during the procedure and patient-related factors have been implicated. This study aims to investigate the possible contribution of potential pancreatotoxic drug (PPD) exposure to PEP risk. Methods: This was a retrospective, single-centre, cohort study conducted at Canberra Hospital, a tertiary university hospital. Consecutive ERCP performed with native papillae within a 4-year period from January 2019 to January 2023 were evaluated. Details of ERCP procedures, patient characteristics, and all medications were contemporaneously collected. All patients had follow-up phone calls or review within 24 h post procedure. The diagnosis of PEP was based on the Cotton consensus definition. Results: A total of 32 out of 444 patients (7.2%) developed PEP. There was no significant difference in the incidence of PEP between patients taking PPD compared to patients who were not (7.1% vs. 7.6%, p = 0.845). Three factors were independently associated with PEP in the multivariate analysis: the presence of a periampullary diverticulum (OR = 5.4, 95% CI 1.7–15.3, p = 0.002), the performance of pre-cut sphincterotomy (OR = 2.8, 95% CI 1.2–6.4, p = 0.017), and pancreatic duct cannulation (OR = 3, CI 1.3–7, p = 0.01). Conclusions: The overall incidence of pancreatitis in our selected group of ERCP patients with native papillae was 7.2%. Our study did not find the use of PPD to be a statistically significant risk factor for PEP.

Development and validation of a machine learning–based, point-of-care risk calculator for post-ERCP pancreatitis and prophylaxis selection

A robust model of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) risk is not currently available. We aimed to develop a machine learning-based tool for PEP risk prediction to aid in clinical decision making related to periprocedural prophylaxis selection and postprocedural monitoring. Feature selection, model training, and validation were performed using patient-level data from 12 randomized controlled trials. A gradient-boosted machine (GBM) model was trained to estimate PEP risk, and the performance of the resulting model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) with 5-fold cross-validation. A web-based clinical decision-making tool was created, and a prospective pilot study was performed using data from ERCPs performed at the Johns Hopkins Hospital over a 1-month period. A total of 7389 patients were included in the GBM with an 8.6% rate of PEP. The model was trained on 20 PEP risk factors and 5 prophylactic interventions (rectal nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs], aggressive hydration, combined rectal NSAIDs and aggressive hydration, pancreatic duct stenting, and combined rectal NSAIDs and pancreatic duct stenting). The resulting GBM model had an AUC of 0.70 (65% specificity, 65% sensitivity, 95% negative predictive value, and 15% positive predictive value). A total of 135 patients were included in the prospective pilot study, resulting in an AUC of 0.74. This study demonstrates the feasibility and utility of a novel machine learning-based PEP risk estimation tool with high negative predictive value to aid in prophylaxis selection and identify patients at low risk who may not require extended postprocedure monitoring.

Risk factors for pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in children

To investigate the application of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in children and the risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 66 children, aged ≤16 years, who underwent ERCP for pancreaticobiliary diseases at the Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from September 2013 to September 2023. The incidence rate of PEP and the risk factors for the development of PEP were analyzed. A total of 78 ERCP procedures were performed on 66 children, with 5 diagnostic ERCPs, 69 therapeutic ERCPs, and 4 failed procedures. The success rate of ERCP operations was 95% (74/78). There were 17 cases of PEP in total, with an incidence rate of 22%. In the PEP group, the proportion of children with normal preoperative bilirubin and the proportion of guidewire insertion into the pancreatic duct during surgery were higher than in the non-PEP group (P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that guidewire insertion into the pancreatic duct was an independent risk factor for PEP (P<0.05). With the increasing application of ERCP in children with pancreaticobiliary diseases, it is important to select an appropriate intubation technique during surgery to avoid blindly entering the guidewire into the pancreatic duct and reduce the occurrence of PEP.

Risks of Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis After Liver Transplantation.

Biliary complications are common after liver transplantation (LT). Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the preferred method to treat biliary complications. Nevertheless, ERCP is not without complications and may have a greater complication rate in the LT population. Knowledge of the prevalence, severity, and possible risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) in LT recipients is limited. Therefore, this study aims to determine the incidence and severity of PEP and identify potential risk factors in LT recipients. This retrospective cohort included patients ≥18 years who underwent ≥1 ERCP procedures after LT between January 2010 and October 2021. Two hundred thirty-two patients were included, who underwent 260 LTs and 1125 ERCPs. PEP occurred after 23 ERCP procedures (2%) with subsequent mortality in three (13%). Multivariate logistic regression identified wire cannulation of the pancreatic duct as a significant risk factor for PEP (OR, 3.21). The complication rate of PEP after LT in this study was shown to be low and is lower compared to patients without a history of LT. Nevertheless, the mortality rate of this group of patients was notably higher.

Patient And Procedure Related Risk Factors of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis In Assiut University Hospital

Patient And Procedure Related Risk Factors of Post-ERCP Pancreatitis In Assiut University Hospital

Risk Factors for Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis After Endoscopic Removal of Common Bile Duct Stones: An Update in Chinese Patients with Choledocholithiasis

Aim: Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) has been widely used in endoscopic surgery for many biliary and pancreatic diseases. Post-ERCP Pancreatitis (PEP) is the most common complication that occurs, even with expert surgeons. However, few reports have addressed the risk of PEP by focusing on the removal of Common Bile Duct Stones (CBDS). Methods: To detect potential risk factors for PEP after endoscopic removal of CBDS, the medical records of CBDS patients who received ERCP procedures at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2021 and December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Patient- and procedure-related data were collected, and PEP was reevaluated. Single- and multiplevariable analyses were conducted to identify potential risk factors. Results: A total of 1,251 procedures were performed in 1,173 patients and PEP occurred in 84 cases (6.71%). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that female sex (P= 0.049, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.002-2.521), cerebral infarction (P=0.011, 95% CI: 1.197-3.964), acute pancreatitis history (P=0.001, 95% CI: 2.436-7.249), fatty liver disease (P=0.021, 95% CI: 1.140 -4.843), common bile duct diameter &lt;10 mm (P=0.005, 95% CI: 1.299-4.313), and Endoscopic Papillary Balloon Dilatation (EBD) (P=0.01, 95% CI: 0.321-0.855) were independent risk factors for PEP in CBDS patients. Conclusion: Female sex, a history of Fatty Liver Disease (FLD), previous acute pancreatitis, and common bile duct stenosis are risk factors for PEP, whereas EPBD is a protective factor for PEP in patients with CBDS, which should be considered by clinicians.

Post-ERCP Pancreatitis Risk Factors: Is Post-Sphincterotomy Bleeding Another Risk Factor?

Despite advancements in technology and expertise, ERCP carries risks of significant complications, such as pancreatitis, bleeding, and perforation. Post-ERCP pancreatitis is the most common and important complication following ERCP. In our study, we aimed to examine the relationship between patient and procedure-related parameters and the development of pancreatitis. Four hundred patients who underwent ERCP between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2020, at the General Surgery Clinic of the Bakirköy Dr. Sadi Konuk Health Application and Research Center of the University of Health Sciences Faculty of Medicine were retrospectively evaluated. Patient and procedure-related factors were analyzed statistically through univariate and multivariate analyses. Age, urgent indication, ERCP history, cholangitis, precut sphincterotomy, common bile duct diameter, pancreatic cannulation, pancreatic stent, and bleeding were statistically significant risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (+). In multivariate analysis, the effects of urgent indication, ERCP history, cholangitis, precut sphincterotomy, common bile duct diameter, and pancreatic cannulation on post-ERCP pancreatitis were statistically significant risk factors ( P <0.05). This study demonstrates that emergency indication, ERCP history, cholangitis, precut sphincterotomy, and pancreatic cannulation are significant risk factors for the development of post- ERCP pancreatitis. One notable contribution of our study to the existing literature is the unique analysis of post-sphincterotomy bleeding as an independent factor.

Double-guidewire technique for selective biliary cannulation does not increase the rate of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis in patients with naïve papilla.

This study aimed to compare the safety of the double-guidewire technique (DGT) with that of the conventional single-guidewire technique (SGT) in real-world situations. A total of 240 patients with naïve papilla who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) at Daegu Catholic University Medical Center between January 2021 and December 2021 were included. The primary outcome was the rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) in the SGT and DGT groups. A total of 163 patients (67.9%) belonged to the SGT group, and 77 (32.1%) belonged to the DGT group. The rates of successful biliary cannulation were 95.7% and 83.1% in the SGT and DGT groups, respectively (p=0.002). In the study group, PEP occurred in 14 patients (5.8%). The PEP rates were not significantly different between the SGT and DGT groups (4.3% vs. 9.1%, p=0.150). In the multivariate analysis, the age of <50 years (odds ratio [OR], 9.305; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.367-63.358; p=0.023) and hyperlipidemia (OR, 7.384; 95% CI, 1.103-49.424; p=0.039) were significant risk factors for PEP in the DGT group. DGT did not increase the PEP rate in patients with naïve papilla. In addition, the age of <50years and hyperlipidemia were significant risk factors for PEP in the DGT group.

Optimal dilation duration of 10 mm diameter balloons after limited endoscopic sphincterotomy for common bile duct stones: a randomized controlled trial

Limited endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) combined with endoscopic papillary balloon dilation (EPBD) is widely used. However, the optimal duration of small balloon dilation in choledocholithiasis remains controversial. We aimed to determine the optimal duration for 10 mm diameter balloon dilation after limited EST in choledocholithiasis. In this randomized controlled clinical trial, 320 patients were randomly assigned to receive small balloon dilation (10 mm in diameter) for 1 min (n = 160) or 3 min (n = 160) after deep bile duct cannulation. No significant difference in success rate of stone extraction between the two groups was observed. The incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) was higher in the 1 min group (10.6%) than in the 3 min group (4.4%) (P = 0.034). The logistic regression analysis showed that guidewire into the pancreatic duct, cannulation time > 5 min and 1 min balloon dilation were independent risk factors for PEP. There were no significant differences in other post-ERCP adverse events such as acute cholangitis, bleeding, perforation, etc. between the two groups. In conclusion, 3 min in duration was determined to be the optimal dilation condition for the removal of common bile duct stones.

S1216 Is Endoscopic Bile Duct Stenting a Risk Factor for Post-ERCP Pancreatitis? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

S1216 Is Endoscopic Bile Duct Stenting a Risk Factor for Post-ERCP Pancreatitis? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Development and external validation of a nomogram for prediction of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

Background and aimsEndoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is widely performed for management of pancreatobiliary diseases; however, post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) remains as an unsolved problem. Although various risk factors for PEP have been reported, the prediction of PEP remains controversial. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for PEP. MethodsConsecutive patients undergoing ERCP for biliary indications at two centers were retrospectively studied. Using data from a training cohort, we utilized a multivariable model to select five variables to construct a nomogram. The predictive model was internally and externally validated. Based on the nomogram, the patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. ResultsUsing the data of 2224 patients in the training cohort, five variables were selected to generate a nomogram: 1) sex, 2) indication for ERCP, 3) difficult cannulation, 4) guidewire insertion into the pancreatic duct, and 5) endoscopic sphincterotomy or sphincteroplasty. The most significant risk factor was endoscopic papillary balloon dilation such as endoscopic sphincterotomy or sphincteroplasty. The bias-corrected concordance index was 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.72 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves for both cohorts demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed frequencies of the actual outcome. In the validation cohort, PEP developed in 5.0% and 14% of patients in the moderate- and high-risk groups, respectively. ConclusionsWe successfully developed a good predictive model for PEP. The prevention of PEP in high risk patients should be investigated further.

Risk factors for pancreatitis occurrence after gallstone treatment using endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

Patients with gallstones are prone to pancreatitis after treatment using endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this study was to explore the risk factors for pancreatitis occurrence after gallstone treatment using ERCP. A total of 193 patients treated from October 2017 to October 2020 were assigned into pancreatitis group (n=55) and non-pancreatitis group (n=138). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to analyse the risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis. The discrimination and accuracy of an established nomogram model were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves, respectively. The incidence rate of pancreatitis was 28.50% (55/193). Young age, long course of disease, gallbladder wall thickness >3 mm, sand-like stones, history of pancreatic disease, number of intubation ≥2 and absence of pancreatic duct stenting were risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (P<0.05). The established model had high discrimination and accuracy. The incidence rates of pancreatitis in patients with and without pancreatic duct stenting were 11.84% (9/76) and 39.31% (46/117), respectively. The patients undergoing pancreatic duct stenting had lower serum amylase levels 6, 12 and 24 h after ERCP than those of patients who did not. Patients with gallstones have a higher risk of developing pancreatitis. Young age, long course of disease, gallbladder wall thickness >3 mm, sand-like stones, history of pancreatic disease, pancreatic duct visualization and number of intubation ≥2 are risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis.

The Relation between Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Pancreatitis and Different Cannulation Techniques: The Experience of a High-Volume Center from North-Eastern Romania.

Despite numerous advances that have aimed to increase the safety of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) still remains a major issue. We aimed to assess the rate of PEP as well as the relation to the cannulation techniques in our unit, a high-volume center in north-eastern Romania. ERCPs performed in our unit from March to August 2022 were retrospectively included. Data concerning demographic information, presence of difficult cannulation, the technique used for cannulation, as well as immediate complications, were gathered from the electronic database. 233 ERCPs were included. PEP was diagnosed in 23 (9.9%) of cases. Precut sphincterotomy (PS), transpancreatic sphincterotomy (TPBS), and a combination of TPBS and PS were performed in 6.4%, 10.3%, and 1.7% of cases, respectively, while an Erlangen precut papillotomy was performed in one case. Both in patients with PS and TPBS the rate of PEP was 20%. When the two techniques were associated, the rate of PEP was 25%. TPBS and PS represented risk factors for PEP (OR 1.211 for a CI of 0.946-1.551, p = 0.041, and OR 1.124 for a CI of 0.928-1.361, p = 0.088, respectively). No PEP-associated deaths were found. Both PS and TPBS presented a similar risk of PEP.

Risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde pancreatography pancreatitis in malignant extrahepatic biliary obstruction: a retrospective single-center study

Background. Decompression interventions under the endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the method of choice in malignant extrahepatic biliary obstruction (MEHBO). Acute pancreatitis is the most common complication of ERCP. Many studies have been performed to identify the risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). However, these works in general include the analysis of ERCP in patients with various causes of biliary obstruction without subdividing patients with malignant obstruction.&#x0D; Purpose.The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for PEP in patients with MEHBO.&#x0D; Materials and Methods. A retrospective analysis of 100 cases of ERCP in MEHBO was done. PEP was in 2 patients, and 14 patients had hyperamylasemia (HA). The following factors were analyzed: gender, age, level of MEHBO, obstruction of the main pancreatic duct (MPD), total bilirubin level, history of endoscopic papillosphincterotomy (EPST), periampullary diverticulum, successful ERCP, primary selective biliary cannulation, catheterization and/or contrast injection into MPD, Precut EPST, successful decompression.&#x0D; Results and discussion. Univariate analysis showed that PEP is associated with an obstruction at the level of the proximal and middle third of the hepaticocholedochus (p = 0.004) and with absence of MPD obstruction (p = 0.022); female gender (p = 0.012), obstruction at the level of the proximal and middle third of the hepaticocholedochus (p &lt; 0.001), absence of MPD obstruction (p &lt; 0.001), catheterization and/or contrast injection into MPD (p = 0.040) are associated with PEP or hyperamylasemia (HA); female gender (p = 0.024), obstruction at the level of the proximal and middle third of the hepaticocholedochus (p &lt; 0.001), absence of MPD obstruction (p=0.006), catheterization and/or contrast injection into MPD (p = 0.035), successful decompression (p = 0.004) are associated with HA. Multivariate regression analysis showed that, for PEP and for PEP or HA as well as for HA, the risk factors are obstruction at the level of the proximal and middle third of the hepaticocholedochus (p = 0.005; p &lt; 0.001; p &lt; 0.001, respectively) and absence of MPD obstruction (p = 0.022; p &lt; 0.001; p = 0.008, respectively). Female gender is a risk factor for PEP or HA and HA (p = 0.011; p = 0.028, respectively), and catheterization and/or contrast injection into MPD are risk factors for PEP or HA (p = 0.04). Conclusion. Development of PEP in MEHBO depends on the localization of a tumor and involvement of the pancreas. The risk factors for PEP in MEHBO are tumor localization at the level of the middle and proximal third of the hepaticocholedochus and absence of MPD obstruction.

Risk factors of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in patients with biliary tract diseases

BackgroundTo investigate the risk factors of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with biliary tract diseases.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 480 patients who underwent ERCP for biliary tract diseases at the Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital of Dalian University from October 2011 to October 2016. The patients were divided into a study group (n = 75, with PEP) and a control group (n = 405, without PEP) based on whether they developed post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP), and their clinical baseline data and intraoperative conditions were retrieved and compared. Then, factors associated with PEP were analyzed using logistic regression model, based on which a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the prediction model.ResultsSignificant differences in age, sex, history of pancreatitis, history of choledocholithiasis, pancreatic duct imaging, pancreatic sphincterotomy, difficult cannulation, multiple cannulation attempts and juxtapapillary duodenal diverticula were observed between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age less than 60 years (OR, 0.477; 95% CI, 0.26–0.855), female sex (OR, 2.162; 95% CI, 1.220–3.831), history of pancreatitis (OR, 2.567; 95% CI, 1.218–5.410), history of choledocholithiasis (OR, 2.062; 95% CI, 1.162–3.658), pancreatic sphincterotomy (OR, 2.387; 95% CI, 1.298–4.390), pancreatic duct imaging (OR, 4.429; 95% CI, 1.481–13.242), multiple cannulation attempts (OR, 2.327; 95% CI, 1.205–4.493), difficult cannulation (OR, 2.421; 95% CI, 1.143–5.128), and JPD (OR, 2.002; 95% CI, 1.125–3.564) were independent risk factors for PEP. The nomogram for predicting the occurrence of PEP demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.787, and the calibration curves of the model showed good consistency between the predicted and actual probability of PEP.ConclusionOur results showed that age less than 60 years, female sex, history of pancreatitis, history of choledocholithiasis, pancreatic sphincterotomy, pancreatic duct imaging, multiple cannulation attempts, difficult cannulation and juxtapapillary duodenal diverticula were independent risk factors for PEP. In addition, the established nomogram demonstrated promising clinical efficacy in predicting PEP risk in patients who underwent ERCP for biliary tract diseases.