Risk Factors For Early Recurrence Research Articles

Relationship between left atrial isolated surface area and early-term recurrence in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation after cryoballoon ablation

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of pulmonary vein antrum enlargement combined with left atrial roof cryoballoon ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF) by analyzing the relationship between left atrial isolation area surface area (ISA) and early postoperative recurrence.Methods93 patients with PeAF were classified into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to the results of the 1-year follow-up. Three-dimensional electroanatomical labeling map was constructed and merged with that of the left atrial pulmonary vein CTA, and the ISA and the left atrial surface area (LASA) were measured and analyzed to determine the relationship between ISA/LASA in relation to early postoperative recurrence.Results93 patients were included and followed up for 1 year with AF-free recurrence rate of 75.3%. The ISA of the recurrence group was lower than that of the non-recurrence group. Left atrial internal diameter (LAD), left common pulmonary vein, the ISA, the ISA/LASA and early-term recurrence had statistical significance in both groups. The factors that significantly predicted early-term recurrence were left common pulmonary vein and the ISA/LASA. ISA/LASA (HR 0, 95% CI 0–0.005, P = 0.008) and left common pulmonary vein trunk (HR 7.754, 95% CI 2.256–25.651, P = 0.001) were the independent risk factors for early recurrence. ROC curve analysis showed that ISA/LASA predicted the best early recurrence after operation with a cut-off value of 15.2%.ConclusionA greater ISA/LASA reduces early recurrence after cryoablation in patients with PeAF. An ISA/LASA of 15.2% may be the best cut-off value for predicting early recurrence after cryoablation for PeAF.

Identifying timing and risk factors for early recurrence of resectable rectal cancer: A single center retrospective study.

Colorectal cancer is a common malignancy and various methods have been introduced to decrease the possibility of recurrence. Early recurrence (ER) is related to worse prognosis. To date, few observational studies have reported on the analysis of rectal cancer. Hence, we reported on the timing and risk factors for the ER of resectable rectal cancer at our institute. To analyze a cohort of patients with local and/or distant recurrence following the radical resection of the primary tumor. Data were retrospectively collected from the institutional database from March 2011 to January 2021. Clinicopathological data at diagnosis, perioperative and postoperative data, and first recurrence were collected and analyzed. ER was defined via receiver operating characteristic curve. Prognostic factors were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling. We included 131 patients. The optimal cut off value of recurrence-free survival (RFS) to differentiate between ER (n = 55, 41.9%) and late recurrence (LR) (n = 76, 58.1%) was 8 mo. The median post-recurrence survival (PRS) of ER and LR was 1.4 mo and 2.9 mo, respectively (P = 0.008) but PRS was not strongly associated with RFS (R² = 0.04). Risk factors included age ≥ 70 years [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.752, P = 0.047], preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (HR = 3.683, P < 0.001), colostomy creation (HR = 2.221, P = 0.036), and length of stay > 9 d (HR = 0.441, P = 0.006). RFS of 8 mo was the optimal cut-off value. Although ER was not associated with PRS, it was still related to prognosis; thus, intense surveillance is recommended.

A nomogram model for early recurrence of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinomas after radical hepatectomy.

To identify the risk factors and construct a predictive model for early recurrence of hepatitis B virus(HBV-)- related hepatocellular carcinomas(HCCs) after radical resection. A total of 465 HBV-related HCC patients underwent radical resections between January 1, 2012 and August 31, 2018.Their data were collected through the inpatient information management system of the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China. Survival and subgroup analyses of early recurrence among male and female patients were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves. The independent risk factors associated with early postoperative tumor recurrence were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Based on these independent risk factors, a risk function model for early recurrence was fitted, and a column chart for the prediction model was drawn for internal and external validation. A total of 181 patients developed early recurrences, including 156 males and 25 females. There was no difference in the early recurrence rates between males and females. Tumor diameters>5cm, microvascular invasion and albumin level<35 g/L were independent risk factors for early recurrence. A nomogram for the early recurrence prediction model was drawn; the areas under the curve for the model and for external verification were 0.638 and 0.655, respectively. Tumor diameter>5 cm, microvascular invasion, and albumin level<35 g/L were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The prediction model based on three clinical indicators could predict early recurrence, with good discrimination, calibration, and extrapolation.

The Enhanced Role of Eosinophils in Radiomics-Based Diagnosis of Microvascular Invasion and Its Association with the Immune Microenvironment in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

To investigate the role of eosinophil counts (EC) in microvascular invasion (MVI) for enhancing the radiomics based diagnostic model. Additionally, its correlation with early recurrence and tumor immune microenvironment was explored. Propensity score matching was employed to evaluate on 462 cases whether EC was an independent risk factor for MVI. Subgroup analyses examined EC's effect on MVI across varying hypersplenism degrees. Univariate-multivariate logistic regression identified MVI's independent factors to develop a diagnostic model. Univariate-multivariate COX regression determined early recurrence factors. Co-detection by indexing (CODEX) constructed the immune score (IS), and Spearman correlation analyzed its association with peripheral immunity. EC was an independent risk factor for MVI (p=0.038, OR=1.304 (95% CI: 1.014-1.677)), and its effect on MVI disappeared with the severity of hypersplenism. The diagnostic model with EC was significantly improved (AUC=0.787 (95% CI: 0.737-0.836) vs AUC=0.748(95% CI: 0.694-0.802, p=0.005)). MVI was an independent risk factor for early recurrence (p<0.001, HR = 2.254 (95% CI: 1.557-3.263)). IS was negatively correlated with lymphocyte counts (R=-0.311, p=0.022), and positively correlated with EC (R=0.301, p=0.027) and RS (R = 0.315, p = 0.018). EC was an independent risk factor for MVI and was related to the tumor immune microenvironment. EC should be included in the diagnosis of MVI to improve diagnostic efficiency.

Prediction Model and Nomogram of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Ultrasound-guided Microwave Ablation

Ultrasound-guided microwave ablation (MWA) is recommended as a first-line treatment for early liver cancer due to its minimally invasive, efficient, and cost-effective nature. It utilizes microwave radiation to heat and destroy tumor cells as a local thermal therapy and offers the benefits of being minimally invasive, repeatable, and applicable to tumors of various sizes and locations. However, despite the efficacy of MWA, early recurrence after treatment remains a challenge, particularly when it occurs within a year and has a significant impact on the prognosis of the patient. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after MWA in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and establish a predictive model. A total of 119 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated in the Department of Ultrasound at the First Affiliated Hospital of the Air Force Medical University from January, 2020 to April, 2022 were included in this study. Patients were categorized into the early recurrence group and the non-early recurrence group based on whether recurrence occurred within 1 year. We conducted univariate analysis on 29 variables. A predictive model was developed using multiple-factor logistic regression analysis, and a risk column graph was created. A total of 28 patients were included in the early recurrence group, with an early recurrence rate of 23%. Tumor size ≥ 3cm, multiple tumors, AST > 35 U/L, low pathological differentiation, CD34 positive, Ki67 level, quantitative parameters mean transit time (mTT), and rise time (RT) were confirmed as risk factors affecting early recurrence after ablation (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the model constructed based on these 5 predictive factors, including tumor size, tumor number, pathological differentiation, CD34, and quantitative analysis parameter mTT, demonstrated good predictive ability, with an AUC of 0.93 in the training set and 0.86 in the validation set. Our research indicates that the risk column graph can be utilized to predict the risk of early postoperative recurrence in patients after MWA. This contributes to guiding personalized clinical treatment decisions and provides important references for improving the prognosis of patients.

Risk Factors for Early Recurrence after Upfront Surgery for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Risk Factors for Early Recurrence after Upfront Surgery for Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Impact of anatomical liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in preventing early-phase local recurrence after surgery.

The superiority of anatomical liver resection (AR) for localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over nonanatomical liver resection (NR) remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the impact of AR in preventing local and early HCC recurrence. A total of 280 patients who underwent initial liver resection for solitary HCC ≤5 cm in diameter were categorized into the AR and NR groups and compared using propensity score matching analysis. Between the matched pairs (n = 87 in each group), the incidence rates of local and early (recurrence within 2 years after surgery) recurrences in the AR group were significantly lower than those in the NR group (13.8% vs. 28.7%, p = .025; 20.7% vs. 35.6%, p = .028, respectively). The overall survival in the AR group was better than that in the NR group (median: 13.4 vs. 7.6 years, p = .003). NR was among independent risk factors for early recurrence (odds ratio: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6, p = .023) and prognostic factors for local recurrence (hazard ratio: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.4-4.4, p = .003). AR is superior in controlling local and early recurrence postoperatively for solitary HCC ≤5 cm in diameter compared with NR.

Abstract PO2-01-11: Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Factors Associated with Early vs. Late Recurrence among Women with Early-Stage Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer in the Prospective Pathways Study

Abstract Background: Although women diagnosed with early-stage estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer generally have a favorable prognosis, they face a lingering risk of late recurrence that can occur years to decades after diagnosis. Relatively little is known about the demographic, lifestyle, or clinical factors associated with the risk of late recurrence, or whether the associations differ between early vs. late recurrence. Methods: We performed a comprehensive analysis of factors related to early vs. late recurrence in early-stage ER-positive breast cancer in the Pathways Study, an established prospective cohort of women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) between 2006 and 2013. Recurrences were identified through monthly searches of the KPNC Cancer Registry, follow-up interviews with participants, and confirmation with electronic medical records. For this analysis, 2,473 women with stage I-IIB, ER-positive breast cancer were included, with ascertainment of recurrence and death through December 31, 2021. Univariate analysis and multivariable Cox regression models were used to examine the factors associated with early (&amp;lt; 5 years since diagnosis) and late (≥ 5 years since diagnosis) recurrence. Results: The median age of diagnosis was 57 (± 10) years, with 35% diagnosed before menopause. While 64% of patients self-reported as White, 16% identified as Asian, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, and 2% other ethnicity. After a median 13.3 (range: 0.6-16.8) years of follow up, a total of 341 (13.8%) recurrences occurred, with 158 before and 181 at or after 5 years from diagnosis. Approximately a third of recurrences were local or regional and the other two thirds were distant. In univariate analysis, increasing stage and tumor grade were associated with higher risk of both early and late recurrence (p&amp;lt; 0.05). Progesterone receptor (PR) negativity was associated with only early (hazard ratio [HR]=1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.09) but not late recurrence (HR=0.90, 95% CI 0.63-1.28). In unadjusted models, receiving lumpectomy (vs. mastectomy), chemotherapy, radiation therapy, or endocrine therapy were associated with lower risk of both early and late recurrence. Among the demographic and lifestyle factors examined, postmenopausal status at diagnosis was associated with lower risk of early (HR=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.96) but not late recurrence (HR=1.00, 95% CI 0.73-1.36). No association was found with body mass index, socioeconomic measures (education, income, employment, marital status), smoking, alcohol intake, or physical activity assessed at the time close to diagnosis. Notably, minoritized racial/ethnic groups all had higher risk of early recurrence than White women (Asian: HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.16-2.66; Black: HR=2.33, 95% CI 1.38-3.93; Hispanic: HR=1.80, 95% CI 1.15-2.82), but no association was found with late recurrence (Asian: HR=0.99, 95% CI 0.65-1.51; Black: HR=0.80, 95% CI 0.41-1.58; Hispanic: HR=0.80, 95% CI 0.48-1.33). In multivariable Cox models adjusted for age, cancer stage, grade, PR status, surgery, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, and endocrine therapy, the trend of higher risk of early recurrence among minoritized racial/ethnic groups remained, although the association remained significant only in Black women (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.08-3.31). Conclusion: Most histopathological features and cancer treatment modality had similar impact on early vs. late recurrence among women with early-stage ER-positive breast cancer, although PR negativity might be an adverse risk factor for early recurrence only. The findings of higher risk of early but not late recurrence among Asian, Black, and Hispanic relative to White women provide some novel data on the racial/ethnic disparities of prognosis for ER-positive breast cancer and may warrant further investigation. Citation Format: Alfredo Chua, Haiyang Sheng, Shipra Gandhi, Marilyn Kwan, Isaac Ergas, Janise Roh, Cecile Laurant, Thaer Khoury, Scarlett Gomez, Christine Ambrosone, Lawrence Kushi, Song Yao. Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Factors Associated with Early vs. Late Recurrence among Women with Early-Stage Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer in the Prospective Pathways Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-01-11.

Patterns, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Recurrence After Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with and without Microvascular Invasion.

The patterns and risk factors of postsurgical recurrence of patient with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with microvascular invasion (MVI) are not clarified. This study aimed to decipher and compare the postoperative recurrent patterns and the risk factors contributing to recurrence between MVI positive (MVI(+)) and MVI negative (MVI(-)) HCC after hepatectomy. Patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy in three Chinese academic hospitals between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018, were enrolled. Recurrent patterns included early (≤2 years) or late (>2 years) recurrence, recurrent sites and number, and risk factors of recurrence were compared between the MVI(+)and MVI(-) groups by propensity score-matching (PSM). Of 1756 patients included, 581 (33.1%) were MVI(+), and 875 (49.8%) patients developed early recurrence. Compared with the MVI(-) group, the MVI(+) group had a higher 2-year recurrence rate in the PSM cohort (hazard ratio [HR], 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59-2.10; P < 0.001), and more patients with multiple tumor recurrence. Patients with early recurrence in the MVI(+) group had a worse overall survival (OS) than those in the MVI(-) group (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.50; P = 0.034). Resection margin (RM) ≤1.0 cm is a surgical predictor of early recurrence for the MVI(+) group (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54-0.87; P = 0.002), but not for the MVI(-) group. Compared to MVI(-) HCC, MVI(+) HCC tends to be early, multiple recurrence and lung and lymph node metastasis after resection. RM ≤1.0 cm is a surgical risk factor of early recurrence for patient with MVI.

Prognostic factors in pulmonary metastases resection from colorectal cancer: impact of right-sided colon cancer and early recurrence.

This retrospective cohort study aimed to explore the surgical outcomes and prognostic factors of resection of pulmonary metastases (PM) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Overall, 60 patients who underwent resection of PM from CRC between 2015 and 2021 at two institutions were reviewed. The primary outcome were overall survival (OS) and early recurrence after PM resection. The association between OS and right-sided colon cancer (RCC) was investigated. Early recurrence after PM resection was defined as recurrence within one year. The 5-year OS after CRC resection was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 67.5-92.4) and after PM resection was 69.4% (95% CI 47.5-83.6). In total, 25 patients had recurrence after PM resection (16 within 1year and 9 after 1year). In multivariable analysis for OS, RCC (hazard ratio [HR] 4.370, 95% CI 1.020-18.73; p = 0.047) and early recurrence after resection of PM (HR 17.23, 95% CI 2.685-110.6; p = 0.003) were risk factors for poor OS. In multivariable analysis for early recurrence after PM resection, higher value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (> 5.0mg/dL) before PM resection was a risk factor for early recurrence (HR 3.275, 95% CI 1.092-9.821; p = 0.034). The RCC and early recurrence after PM resection were poor prognosis factors of OS. Higher value of CEA before PM resection was an independent risk factor for early recurrence after resection of PM. Comparitive study between surgery and nonsurgery is necessary in patients with higher CEA values.

The prognostic nutritional index as a predictor of efficacy and early recurrence for adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and aimsPostoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can prevent recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in certain patients. This study aimed to identify the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant TACE. Methods477 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC were enrolled in this retrospectively cohort study. The trajectory of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) during the perioperative period was fitted using a latent-class growth mixed model. The association between adjuvant TACE and recurrence-free survival in each PNI group was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after adjuvant TACE and develop a nomogram model. ResultsPatients in the PNI group III had a high risk of recurrence and could benefit from adjuvant TACE (P = 0.009). The prognostic prediction model for adjuvant TACE (PAT) incorporated eight variables (PNI, tumor size, tumor number, microvascular invasion, sex, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and degree of differentiation). Patients with PAT score >330 and 235–330 had significantly higher recurrence rates than those with PAT score <235 (P < 0.001). ConclusionPNI may help guide the selection of adjuvant TACE beneficiaries. PAT demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis of patients who underwent postoperative TACE.

Effect of Risk Factor Score on Early Recurrence After Pancreatectomy for Invasive Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

This study aimed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence (ER) after pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) resection to create a novel scoring system for ER and analyze their effect on the recurrence pattern. Sixty patients with PDAC who underwent pancreatectomy were included. The predicted risk factors for ER were analyzed. A new score defining ER was created and analyzed for recurrence pattern and prognosis. Independent predictors included high CA 19-9 (≥147 U/ml), high lymph node ratio (LNR of ≥0.1277), and no adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). The 5-year overall survival rates with a score of 0, 1, and 2 were 55.8%, 11.0%, and 0%, respectively. In the moderate- risk score group, prognosis was improved by induction of AC within 58 days. Preoperative high CA19-9, high LNR, and no AC could be ER predictors. Induction of postoperative chemotherapy within 58 days may improve prognosis.

Predictive models based on machine learning for early recurrence and metastasis in postoperative patients with colorectal cancer

Abstract Objectives: To construct and validate a prediction model based on machine learning algorithms for early recurrence and metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer after surgery. Methods: This study employed a prospective cohort design. A total of 498 postoperative patients with colorectal cancer, treated at an affiliated hospital of Qingdao University, were recruited using convenience sampling from June to December 2021. Data were collected during outpatient visits and hospitalizations. The risk factors for early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer were determined through multivariate logistic regression analysis in SPSS 26.0 software. Using Python 3.7.0 software, 4 machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, XGBoost, and LightGBM) were used to develop and validate prediction models for early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer after surgery. Results: Of the 498 patients, 51 (10.24%) had early recurrence and metastasis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that personal traits (family history of cancer, histologic type, degree of tumor differentiation, number of positive lymph nodes, and T stage), behavior and/or lifestyle (intake of refined grains, whole grains, fish, shrimp, crab, and nuts, as well as resilience), and interpersonal networks (social support) were all associated with early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer (P&lt;0.05). The logistic regression prediction model showed the best prediction performance out of the 4 models, with an accuracy rate of 0.920, specificity of 0.982, F1 of 0.495, AUC of 0.867, Kappa of 0.056, and Brier score of 0.067. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a prediction model based on logistic regression could accurately and scientifically predict which patients are likely to experience early recurrence and metastasis, helping to lessen the burden for both patients and the health care system.

Effect of anatomical liver resection on early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma assessed based on a nomogram: a single-center study in China.

We aimed to investigate risk factors for early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and determine the effect of surgical methods on early recurrence to facilitate predicting the risk of early postoperative recurrence in such patients and the selection of appropriate treatment methods. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data concerning 428 patients with HCC who had undergone radical surgery at Mianyang Central Hospital between January 2015 and August 2022. Relevant routine preoperative auxiliary examinations and regular postoperative telephone or outpatient follow-ups were performed to identify early postoperative recurrence. Risk factors were screened, and predictive models were constructed, including patients' preoperative ancillary tests, intra- and postoperative complications, and pathology tests in relation to early recurrence. The risk of recurrence was estimated for each patient based on a prediction model, and patients were categorized into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. The effect of anatomical liver resection (AR) on early postoperative recurrence in patients with HCC in the two groups was assessed using survival analysis. In total, 353 study patients were included. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis findings suggested that tumor diameter (≥5/<5 cm, odds ratio [OR] 2.357, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.368-4.059; P = 0.002), alpha fetoprotein (≥400/<400 ng/L, OR 2.525, 95% CI 1.334-4.780; P = 0.004), tumor number (≥2/<2, OR 2.213, 95% CI 1.147-4.270; P = 0.018), microvascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 3.230, 95% CI 1.880-5.551; P < 0.001), vascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 4.472, 95% CI 1.395-14.332; P = 0.012), and alkaline phosphatase level (>125/≤125 U/L, OR 2.202, 95% CI 1.162-4.173; P = 0.016) were risk factors for early recurrence following radical HCC surgery. Model validation and evaluation showed that the area under the curve was 0.813. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results (X 2 = 1.225, P = 0.996 > 0.05), results from bootstrap self-replicated sampling of 1,000 samples, and decision curve analysis showed that the model also discriminated well, with potentially good clinical utility. Using this model, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. One-year disease-free survival was compared between the two groups with different surgical approaches. Both groups benefited from AR in terms of prevention of early postoperative recurrence, with AR benefits being more pronounced and intraoperative bleeding less likely in the high-risk recurrence group. With appropriate surgical techniques and with tumors being realistically amenable to R0 resection, AR is a potentially useful surgical procedure for preventing early recurrence after radical surgery in patients with HCC.

Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 and Metabolite Hypotaurine Are Predictive Markers for Early Recurrence of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

A significant number of patients experience early recurrence after surgical resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), negating the benefit of surgery. The present study conducted clinicopathologic and metabolomic analyses to explore the factors associated with the early recurrence of PDAC. Patients who underwent pancreatectomy for PDAC at Kagawa University Hospital between 2011 and 2020 were enrolled. Tissue samples of PDAC and nonneoplastic pancreas were collected and frozen immediately after resection. Charged metabolites were quantified by capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry. Patients who relapsed within 1 year were defined as the early recurrence group. Frozen tumor tissue and nonneoplastic pancreas were collected from 79 patients. The clinicopathologic analysis identified 11 predictive factors, including preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels. The metabolomic analysis revealed that only hypotaurine was a significant risk factor for early recurrence. A multivariate analysis, including clinical and metabolic factors, showed that carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and hypotaurine were independent risk factors for early recurrence ( P = 0.045 and P = 0.049, respectively). The recurrence-free survival rate 1 year after surgery with both risk factors was only 25%. Our results suggested that tumor hypotaurine is a potential metabolite associated with early recurrence. Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and hypotaurine showed a vital utility for predicting early recurrence.

Proposal for Prognosis-Oriented Definition of Borderline Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Owing to advances in the multidisciplinary treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a conceptualization and definition for borderline resectable (BR) HCC, which carries a high risk of recurrence, is warranted. In this study, we aimed to define BR-HCC using a prognosis-oriented approach. The study included an original cohort of 221 patients and an independent validation cohort of 181 patients who had undergone primary hepatic resection for HCC. To define biological BR-HCC, we evaluated the risk factors for early recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year after hepatic resection using multivariable logistic regression models. Subsequently, we developed high-risk scores using the identified risk factors and defined BR-HCC. The utility of high-risk score was validated in the validation cohort. In the original cohort (hepatitis B virus:hepatitis C virus = 20%:29%), recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year was observed in 28 patients (13%), with a 5-year survival rate of 25%. Multivariable analysis identified risk factors for recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year, including serum alpha-fetoprotein levels of 12 ng/mL or more (p = 0.02), tumor diameters less than 5 cm (p = 0.02), tumor number 3 or more (p = 0.001), and macrovascular invasion (p = 0.04). BR-HCC was defined as a tumor with 2 or more identified risk factors, and 42 patients (19%) were diagnosed with BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 51%. In the validation cohort, 45 (25%) patients had BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 42%. The prognosis-oriented definition of BR-HCC enabled us to identify patients who are susceptible to early unresectable recurrence and have poor survival after hepatic resection for HCC. For patients with BR-HCC, preoperative systemic therapy may be a viable option to improve postresection outcomes.

Risk Factors for Early Recurrence After Radical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Preoperative Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound and Clinical Features.

To investigate risk factors for the early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection based on preoperative contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and clinical features to provide guidance for clinical treatment. The retrospective analysis selected 130 HCC patients who underwent radical tumor resection from October 2019 to November 2021. All patients underwent preoperative routine ultrasound examination and CEUS, and the pathology was confirmed as HCC after surgery. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether there is an ER, namely the ER group and the non-ER group. The general clinical, routine and CEUS data of patients were collected, and the factors were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Multivariate logistic regression was used to screen the independent influencing factors of ER. Then a nomogram model was established to predict the risk of ER, and the application value of nomogram through internal validation was evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression identified several independent factors influencing ER after radical HCC resection. Significant factors included early wash-out phase (95%CI = 0.003-0.206, P = 0.001), liver cirrhosis (95%CI = 2.835-221.224, P = 0.004), incomplete envelope (95%CI = 5.247-1056.130,P = 0.001), multiple lesions (95%CI = 1.110-135.424,P = 0.041), Albumin <40 g/L (95%CI = 2.496-127.223,P = 0.004), and Golgi Protein 73 (GP73) ≥ 85 ng/mL (95%CI = 1.594-30.002, P = 0.010), with all P-values <0.05. The nomogram prediction model constructed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression, demonstrated a ROC curve AUC of 0.879, a sensitivity of 93.5%, a specificity of 66.7%, and a C-index of 0.602, indicating superior diagnostic efficiency compared to independent influencing factors. The ER nomogram prediction model confirmed good discrimination and calibration in internal validation. The CEUS-Clinical combined model effectively monitors the risk of ER in high-risk populations following radical resection of HCC, timely interventions to improve patient prognosis.

Risk factors for early recurrence after radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer: a multicenter, retrospective study.

Radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy is the standard treatment for stage II or III gastric cancer in Asian countries. Early recurrence during or after adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with poor prognosis; however, risk factors for early recurrence remain unclear. In this multicenter, retrospective cohort study including six institutions, we evaluated the clinicopathological factors of 553 patients with gastric cancer undergoing gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy between 2012 and 2016. Patients were divided into the following groups: early recurrence (recurrence during adjuvant chemotherapy or within 6months after adjuvant chemotherapy completion) and non-early recurrence, which was further divided into late recurrence and no recurrence. Early-recurrence risk factors were investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. The chronological changes in the recurrence hazard were also examined for each factor. Early recurrence and late recurrence occurred in 83 (15.0%) and 73 (13.2%) patients, respectively. Based on the Cox proportional hazards model, a postoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5ng/mL (hazard ratio: 2.220, 95% confidence interval: 1.089-4.526) and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 (hazard ratio: 2.408, 95% confidence interval: 1.479-3.92) were identified as independent risk factors of early recurrence, but not late recurrence. The recurrence hazard ratios for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio significantly decreased over time (P<0.001) and carcinoembryonic antigen also had the same tendency (P=0.08). A carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5ng/mL and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 are predictors of early recurrence after radical gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer.

Analysis of Preoperative Risk Factors for Early Recurrence in Patients After Hepatic Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis even after curative-intent hepatic resection due to a high recurrence rate. The aim of this study was to investigate preoperative risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for ICC, which may help to identify patients who need preoperative chemotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed 51 patients who had undergone primary surgery for ICC. We investigated the association of preoperative clinical variables with recurrence within 1year after resection for ICC. We then created a high-risk ICC score using the identified preoperative factors and investigated the association of the score with disease-free and overall survival. Recurrence within 1year after surgery for ICC was significantly associated with poor overall survival (P < .01). In the multivariate analysis, preoperative tumor size > 5cm (P = .03) and elevated C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) (P = .04) were significantly associated with recurrence within 1year after surgery. A high-risk ICC score of 2 was associated with poor disease-free survival (P < .01) and overall survival (P = .02) compared with a score of 0 or 1. Our high-risk ICC score, combining preoperative tumor size and CAR, can be an indicator of early recurrence and poor survival in patients after hepatic resection for ICC. Our findings may provide better preoperative risk stratification of patients with ICC, and the high-risk ICC patients may benefit from preoperative therapy.

The prognosis-based classification model in resectable pancreatic cancer

AimPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treatment is mainly based on the anatomical resectability classification. However, prognosis-based classification may be more reasonable. In this study, we stratified resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma according to preoperative factors and reconsidered treatment strategies. MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated 131 patients who underwent upfront surgery for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2007 and 2019. Recurrence within 1 year after surgery was defined as early recurrence, and the risk factors for early recurrence were identified using preoperative factors. Subsequently, we calculated the scores and stratified the participant groups. ResultsFifty-five (42 %) patients who relapsed within 1 year showed significantly poorer survival than those without recurrence (median overall survival, 14.0 vs. 80.6 months; p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that a tumor diameter of ≥24 mm (p < 0.01) and preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level of ≥380 U/mL (p = 0.04) were the independent risk factors for early recurrence. Early recurrence score was created using these factors, stratifying the participant group into three groups of 0–2 points, and the prognosis was significantly different (median overall survival, 49.3 vs. 31.2 vs. 16.0 months; p < 0.01). ConclusionWe stratified the upfront surgical cases of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The group with a score of 0 had a good prognosis, and upfront surgery was possibly not futile on patients in poor general condition. The group with a score of 2 had a poor prognosis and may require stronger preoperative treatment.