Risk Factors For Early Recurrence Research Articles

Proposal for Prognosis-Oriented Definition of Borderline Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Owing to advances in the multidisciplinary treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a conceptualization and definition for borderline resectable (BR) HCC, which carries a high risk of recurrence, is warranted. In this study, we aimed to define BR-HCC using a prognosis-oriented approach. The study included an original cohort of 221 patients and an independent validation cohort of 181 patients who had undergone primary hepatic resection for HCC. To define biological BR-HCC, we evaluated the risk factors for early recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year after hepatic resection using multivariable logistic regression models. Subsequently, we developed high-risk scores using the identified risk factors and defined BR-HCC. The utility of high-risk score was validated in the validation cohort. In the original cohort (hepatitis B virus:hepatitis C virus = 20%:29%), recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year was observed in 28 patients (13%), with a 5-year survival rate of 25%. Multivariable analysis identified risk factors for recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year, including serum alpha-fetoprotein levels of 12 ng/mL or more (p = 0.02), tumor diameters less than 5 cm (p = 0.02), tumor number 3 or more (p = 0.001), and macrovascular invasion (p = 0.04). BR-HCC was defined as a tumor with 2 or more identified risk factors, and 42 patients (19%) were diagnosed with BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 51%. In the validation cohort, 45 (25%) patients had BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 42%. The prognosis-oriented definition of BR-HCC enabled us to identify patients who are susceptible to early unresectable recurrence and have poor survival after hepatic resection for HCC. For patients with BR-HCC, preoperative systemic therapy may be a viable option to improve postresection outcomes.

The prognostic nutritional index as a predictor of efficacy and early recurrence for adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can prevent recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in certain patients. This study aimed to identify the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant TACE. 477 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC were enrolled in this retrospectively cohort study. The trajectory of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) during the perioperative period was fitted using a latent-class growth mixed model. The association between adjuvant TACE and recurrence-free survival in each PNI group was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after adjuvant TACE and develop a nomogram model. Patients in the PNI group III had a high risk of recurrence and could benefit from adjuvant TACE (P = 0.009). The prognostic prediction model for adjuvant TACE (PAT) incorporated eight variables (PNI, tumor size, tumor number, vascular invasion, sex, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and degree of differentiation). Patients with PAT scores > 330 and 235-330 had significantly higher recurrence rates than those with PAT scores < 235 (P < 0.001). PNI may help guide the selection of adjuvant TACE beneficiaries. PAT demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis of patients who underwent postoperative TACE.

Impact of anatomical liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in preventing early-phase local recurrence after surgery.

The superiority of anatomical liver resection (AR) for localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over nonanatomical liver resection (NR) remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the impact of AR in preventing local and early HCC recurrence. A total of 280 patients who underwent initial liver resection for solitary HCC ≤5 cm in diameter were categorized into the AR and NR groups and compared using propensity score matching analysis. Between the matched pairs (n = 87 in each group), the incidence rates of local and early (recurrence within 2 years after surgery) recurrences in the AR group were significantly lower than those in the NR group (13.8% vs. 28.7%, p = .025; 20.7% vs. 35.6%, p = .028, respectively). The overall survival in the AR group was better than that in the NR group (median: 13.4 vs. 7.6 years, p = .003). NR was among independent risk factors for early recurrence (odds ratio: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6, p = .023) and prognostic factors for local recurrence (hazard ratio: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.4-4.4, p = .003). AR is superior in controlling local and early recurrence postoperatively for solitary HCC ≤5 cm in diameter compared with NR.

Abstract PO2-01-11: Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Factors Associated with Early vs. Late Recurrence among Women with Early-Stage Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer in the Prospective Pathways Study

Abstract Background: Although women diagnosed with early-stage estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer generally have a favorable prognosis, they face a lingering risk of late recurrence that can occur years to decades after diagnosis. Relatively little is known about the demographic, lifestyle, or clinical factors associated with the risk of late recurrence, or whether the associations differ between early vs. late recurrence. Methods: We performed a comprehensive analysis of factors related to early vs. late recurrence in early-stage ER-positive breast cancer in the Pathways Study, an established prospective cohort of women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) between 2006 and 2013. Recurrences were identified through monthly searches of the KPNC Cancer Registry, follow-up interviews with participants, and confirmation with electronic medical records. For this analysis, 2,473 women with stage I-IIB, ER-positive breast cancer were included, with ascertainment of recurrence and death through December 31, 2021. Univariate analysis and multivariable Cox regression models were used to examine the factors associated with early (&amp;lt; 5 years since diagnosis) and late (≥ 5 years since diagnosis) recurrence. Results: The median age of diagnosis was 57 (± 10) years, with 35% diagnosed before menopause. While 64% of patients self-reported as White, 16% identified as Asian, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, and 2% other ethnicity. After a median 13.3 (range: 0.6-16.8) years of follow up, a total of 341 (13.8%) recurrences occurred, with 158 before and 181 at or after 5 years from diagnosis. Approximately a third of recurrences were local or regional and the other two thirds were distant. In univariate analysis, increasing stage and tumor grade were associated with higher risk of both early and late recurrence (p&amp;lt; 0.05). Progesterone receptor (PR) negativity was associated with only early (hazard ratio [HR]=1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.09) but not late recurrence (HR=0.90, 95% CI 0.63-1.28). In unadjusted models, receiving lumpectomy (vs. mastectomy), chemotherapy, radiation therapy, or endocrine therapy were associated with lower risk of both early and late recurrence. Among the demographic and lifestyle factors examined, postmenopausal status at diagnosis was associated with lower risk of early (HR=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.96) but not late recurrence (HR=1.00, 95% CI 0.73-1.36). No association was found with body mass index, socioeconomic measures (education, income, employment, marital status), smoking, alcohol intake, or physical activity assessed at the time close to diagnosis. Notably, minoritized racial/ethnic groups all had higher risk of early recurrence than White women (Asian: HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.16-2.66; Black: HR=2.33, 95% CI 1.38-3.93; Hispanic: HR=1.80, 95% CI 1.15-2.82), but no association was found with late recurrence (Asian: HR=0.99, 95% CI 0.65-1.51; Black: HR=0.80, 95% CI 0.41-1.58; Hispanic: HR=0.80, 95% CI 0.48-1.33). In multivariable Cox models adjusted for age, cancer stage, grade, PR status, surgery, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, and endocrine therapy, the trend of higher risk of early recurrence among minoritized racial/ethnic groups remained, although the association remained significant only in Black women (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.08-3.31). Conclusion: Most histopathological features and cancer treatment modality had similar impact on early vs. late recurrence among women with early-stage ER-positive breast cancer, although PR negativity might be an adverse risk factor for early recurrence only. The findings of higher risk of early but not late recurrence among Asian, Black, and Hispanic relative to White women provide some novel data on the racial/ethnic disparities of prognosis for ER-positive breast cancer and may warrant further investigation. Citation Format: Alfredo Chua, Haiyang Sheng, Shipra Gandhi, Marilyn Kwan, Isaac Ergas, Janise Roh, Cecile Laurant, Thaer Khoury, Scarlett Gomez, Christine Ambrosone, Lawrence Kushi, Song Yao. Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Factors Associated with Early vs. Late Recurrence among Women with Early-Stage Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer in the Prospective Pathways Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-01-11.

Patterns, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Recurrence After Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with and without Microvascular Invasion.

The patterns and risk factors of postsurgical recurrence of patient with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with microvascular invasion (MVI) are not clarified. This study aimed to decipher and compare the postoperative recurrent patterns and the risk factors contributing to recurrence between MVI positive (MVI(+)) and MVI negative (MVI(-)) HCC after hepatectomy. Patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy in three Chinese academic hospitals between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018, were enrolled. Recurrent patterns included early (≤2 years) or late (>2 years) recurrence, recurrent sites and number, and risk factors of recurrence were compared between the MVI(+)and MVI(-) groups by propensity score-matching (PSM). Of 1756 patients included, 581 (33.1%) were MVI(+), and 875 (49.8%) patients developed early recurrence. Compared with the MVI(-) group, the MVI(+) group had a higher 2-year recurrence rate in the PSM cohort (hazard ratio [HR], 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59-2.10; P < 0.001), and more patients with multiple tumor recurrence. Patients with early recurrence in the MVI(+) group had a worse overall survival (OS) than those in the MVI(-) group (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.50; P = 0.034). Resection margin (RM) ≤1.0 cm is a surgical predictor of early recurrence for the MVI(+) group (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54-0.87; P = 0.002), but not for the MVI(-) group. Compared to MVI(-) HCC, MVI(+) HCC tends to be early, multiple recurrence and lung and lymph node metastasis after resection. RM ≤1.0 cm is a surgical risk factor of early recurrence for patient with MVI.

Prognostic factors in pulmonary metastases resection from colorectal cancer: impact of right-sided colon cancer and early recurrence.

This retrospective cohort study aimed to explore the surgical outcomes and prognostic factors of resection of pulmonary metastases (PM) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Overall, 60 patients who underwent resection of PM from CRC between 2015 and 2021 at two institutions were reviewed. The primary outcome were overall survival (OS) and early recurrence after PM resection. The association between OS and right-sided colon cancer (RCC) was investigated. Early recurrence after PM resection was defined as recurrence within one year. The 5-year OS after CRC resection was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 67.5-92.4) and after PM resection was 69.4% (95% CI 47.5-83.6). In total, 25 patients had recurrence after PM resection (16 within 1year and 9 after 1year). In multivariable analysis for OS, RCC (hazard ratio [HR] 4.370, 95% CI 1.020-18.73; p = 0.047) and early recurrence after resection of PM (HR 17.23, 95% CI 2.685-110.6; p = 0.003) were risk factors for poor OS. In multivariable analysis for early recurrence after PM resection, higher value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (> 5.0mg/dL) before PM resection was a risk factor for early recurrence (HR 3.275, 95% CI 1.092-9.821; p = 0.034). The RCC and early recurrence after PM resection were poor prognosis factors of OS. Higher value of CEA before PM resection was an independent risk factor for early recurrence after resection of PM. Comparitive study between surgery and nonsurgery is necessary in patients with higher CEA values.

Effect of Risk Factor Score on Early Recurrence After Pancreatectomy for Invasive Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

This study aimed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence (ER) after pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) resection to create a novel scoring system for ER and analyze their effect on the recurrence pattern. Sixty patients with PDAC who underwent pancreatectomy were included. The predicted risk factors for ER were analyzed. A new score defining ER was created and analyzed for recurrence pattern and prognosis. Independent predictors included high CA 19-9 (≥147 U/ml), high lymph node ratio (LNR of ≥0.1277), and no adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). The 5-year overall survival rates with a score of 0, 1, and 2 were 55.8%, 11.0%, and 0%, respectively. In the moderate- risk score group, prognosis was improved by induction of AC within 58 days. Preoperative high CA19-9, high LNR, and no AC could be ER predictors. Induction of postoperative chemotherapy within 58 days may improve prognosis.

Predictive models based on machine learning for early recurrence and metastasis in postoperative patients with colorectal cancer

Abstract Objectives: To construct and validate a prediction model based on machine learning algorithms for early recurrence and metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer after surgery. Methods: This study employed a prospective cohort design. A total of 498 postoperative patients with colorectal cancer, treated at an affiliated hospital of Qingdao University, were recruited using convenience sampling from June to December 2021. Data were collected during outpatient visits and hospitalizations. The risk factors for early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer were determined through multivariate logistic regression analysis in SPSS 26.0 software. Using Python 3.7.0 software, 4 machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, XGBoost, and LightGBM) were used to develop and validate prediction models for early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer after surgery. Results: Of the 498 patients, 51 (10.24%) had early recurrence and metastasis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that personal traits (family history of cancer, histologic type, degree of tumor differentiation, number of positive lymph nodes, and T stage), behavior and/or lifestyle (intake of refined grains, whole grains, fish, shrimp, crab, and nuts, as well as resilience), and interpersonal networks (social support) were all associated with early recurrence and metastasis of colorectal cancer (P&lt;0.05). The logistic regression prediction model showed the best prediction performance out of the 4 models, with an accuracy rate of 0.920, specificity of 0.982, F1 of 0.495, AUC of 0.867, Kappa of 0.056, and Brier score of 0.067. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a prediction model based on logistic regression could accurately and scientifically predict which patients are likely to experience early recurrence and metastasis, helping to lessen the burden for both patients and the health care system.

Effect of anatomical liver resection on early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma assessed based on a nomogram: a single-center study in China.

We aimed to investigate risk factors for early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and determine the effect of surgical methods on early recurrence to facilitate predicting the risk of early postoperative recurrence in such patients and the selection of appropriate treatment methods. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data concerning 428 patients with HCC who had undergone radical surgery at Mianyang Central Hospital between January 2015 and August 2022. Relevant routine preoperative auxiliary examinations and regular postoperative telephone or outpatient follow-ups were performed to identify early postoperative recurrence. Risk factors were screened, and predictive models were constructed, including patients' preoperative ancillary tests, intra- and postoperative complications, and pathology tests in relation to early recurrence. The risk of recurrence was estimated for each patient based on a prediction model, and patients were categorized into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. The effect of anatomical liver resection (AR) on early postoperative recurrence in patients with HCC in the two groups was assessed using survival analysis. In total, 353 study patients were included. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis findings suggested that tumor diameter (≥5/<5 cm, odds ratio [OR] 2.357, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.368-4.059; P = 0.002), alpha fetoprotein (≥400/<400 ng/L, OR 2.525, 95% CI 1.334-4.780; P = 0.004), tumor number (≥2/<2, OR 2.213, 95% CI 1.147-4.270; P = 0.018), microvascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 3.230, 95% CI 1.880-5.551; P < 0.001), vascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 4.472, 95% CI 1.395-14.332; P = 0.012), and alkaline phosphatase level (>125/≤125 U/L, OR 2.202, 95% CI 1.162-4.173; P = 0.016) were risk factors for early recurrence following radical HCC surgery. Model validation and evaluation showed that the area under the curve was 0.813. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results (X 2 = 1.225, P = 0.996 > 0.05), results from bootstrap self-replicated sampling of 1,000 samples, and decision curve analysis showed that the model also discriminated well, with potentially good clinical utility. Using this model, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. One-year disease-free survival was compared between the two groups with different surgical approaches. Both groups benefited from AR in terms of prevention of early postoperative recurrence, with AR benefits being more pronounced and intraoperative bleeding less likely in the high-risk recurrence group. With appropriate surgical techniques and with tumors being realistically amenable to R0 resection, AR is a potentially useful surgical procedure for preventing early recurrence after radical surgery in patients with HCC.

Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 and Metabolite Hypotaurine Are Predictive Markers for Early Recurrence of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

A significant number of patients experience early recurrence after surgical resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), negating the benefit of surgery. The present study conducted clinicopathologic and metabolomic analyses to explore the factors associated with the early recurrence of PDAC. Patients who underwent pancreatectomy for PDAC at Kagawa University Hospital between 2011 and 2020 were enrolled. Tissue samples of PDAC and nonneoplastic pancreas were collected and frozen immediately after resection. Charged metabolites were quantified by capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry. Patients who relapsed within 1 year were defined as the early recurrence group. Frozen tumor tissue and nonneoplastic pancreas were collected from 79 patients. The clinicopathologic analysis identified 11 predictive factors, including preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels. The metabolomic analysis revealed that only hypotaurine was a significant risk factor for early recurrence. A multivariate analysis, including clinical and metabolic factors, showed that carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and hypotaurine were independent risk factors for early recurrence ( P = 0.045 and P = 0.049, respectively). The recurrence-free survival rate 1 year after surgery with both risk factors was only 25%. Our results suggested that tumor hypotaurine is a potential metabolite associated with early recurrence. Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 and hypotaurine showed a vital utility for predicting early recurrence.

Risk factors for early recurrence after radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer: a multicenter, retrospective study.

Radical gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy is the standard treatment for stage II or III gastric cancer in Asian countries. Early recurrence during or after adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with poor prognosis; however, risk factors for early recurrence remain unclear. In this multicenter, retrospective cohort study including six institutions, we evaluated the clinicopathological factors of 553 patients with gastric cancer undergoing gastrectomy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy between 2012 and 2016. Patients were divided into the following groups: early recurrence (recurrence during adjuvant chemotherapy or within 6months after adjuvant chemotherapy completion) and non-early recurrence, which was further divided into late recurrence and no recurrence. Early-recurrence risk factors were investigated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. The chronological changes in the recurrence hazard were also examined for each factor. Early recurrence and late recurrence occurred in 83 (15.0%) and 73 (13.2%) patients, respectively. Based on the Cox proportional hazards model, a postoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5ng/mL (hazard ratio: 2.220, 95% confidence interval: 1.089-4.526) and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 (hazard ratio: 2.408, 95% confidence interval: 1.479-3.92) were identified as independent risk factors of early recurrence, but not late recurrence. The recurrence hazard ratios for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio significantly decreased over time (P<0.001) and carcinoembryonic antigen also had the same tendency (P=0.08). A carcinoembryonic antigen level of ≥5ng/mL and a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio of >1.8 are predictors of early recurrence after radical gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II or III gastric cancer.

Analysis of Preoperative Risk Factors for Early Recurrence in Patients After Hepatic Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis even after curative-intent hepatic resection due to a high recurrence rate. The aim of this study was to investigate preoperative risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for ICC, which may help to identify patients who need preoperative chemotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed 51 patients who had undergone primary surgery for ICC. We investigated the association of preoperative clinical variables with recurrence within 1year after resection for ICC. We then created a high-risk ICC score using the identified preoperative factors and investigated the association of the score with disease-free and overall survival. Recurrence within 1year after surgery for ICC was significantly associated with poor overall survival (P < .01). In the multivariate analysis, preoperative tumor size > 5cm (P = .03) and elevated C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) (P = .04) were significantly associated with recurrence within 1year after surgery. A high-risk ICC score of 2 was associated with poor disease-free survival (P < .01) and overall survival (P = .02) compared with a score of 0 or 1. Our high-risk ICC score, combining preoperative tumor size and CAR, can be an indicator of early recurrence and poor survival in patients after hepatic resection for ICC. Our findings may provide better preoperative risk stratification of patients with ICC, and the high-risk ICC patients may benefit from preoperative therapy.

The prognosis-based classification model in resectable pancreatic cancer

AimPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treatment is mainly based on the anatomical resectability classification. However, prognosis-based classification may be more reasonable. In this study, we stratified resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma according to preoperative factors and reconsidered treatment strategies. MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated 131 patients who underwent upfront surgery for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2007 and 2019. Recurrence within 1 year after surgery was defined as early recurrence, and the risk factors for early recurrence were identified using preoperative factors. Subsequently, we calculated the scores and stratified the participant groups. ResultsFifty-five (42 %) patients who relapsed within 1 year showed significantly poorer survival than those without recurrence (median overall survival, 14.0 vs. 80.6 months; p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that a tumor diameter of ≥24 mm (p < 0.01) and preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level of ≥380 U/mL (p = 0.04) were the independent risk factors for early recurrence. Early recurrence score was created using these factors, stratifying the participant group into three groups of 0–2 points, and the prognosis was significantly different (median overall survival, 49.3 vs. 31.2 vs. 16.0 months; p < 0.01). ConclusionWe stratified the upfront surgical cases of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The group with a score of 0 had a good prognosis, and upfront surgery was possibly not futile on patients in poor general condition. The group with a score of 2 had a poor prognosis and may require stronger preoperative treatment.

Risk factors of early recurrence after radical resection for pancreatic cancer

Risk factors of early recurrence after radical resection for pancreatic cancer

Methylated ctDNA predicts early recurrence risk in patients undergoing resection of initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases.

Patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases (IU-CRLM) might benefit from using an effective systemic treatment followed by resection of liver metastases but the curative success rate is quite low. Indeed, nearly one-third of patients exhibit early recurrence within the first 6 months after surgery, and these individuals often have poor overall survival. This study aims to clarify the application value of serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis in predicting the clinical outcome of IU-CRLM patients following liver metastasectomy. A retrospective study was conducted on a cohort of patients with IU-CRLM between February 2018 and April 2021. Plasma samples at different time points during CRLM treatment [baseline (BL), preoperation (PRE), postoperation (POST), end-of-treatment (EOT), and progressive disease (PD)] were retrospectively collected from patients with initially unresectable CRLM enrolled at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Dynamic changes of SEPTIN 9 (SEPT9) and Neuropeptide Y (NPY) methylated circulating tumor DNA (MetctDNA) levels in serial plasma samples were detected using droplet-digital PCR (ddPCR). SEPT9 and NPY genes were hypermethylated in colon cancer cell lines and tissues while no difference was observed between primary and metastatic tumors. Patients with MetctDNA positive at POST or EOT had significantly lower recurrence-free survival (RFS) compared to patients with MetctDNA negative at these time points [POST: Hazard ratio (HR) 9.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.15-17.30, p < 0.001; EOT: HR 11.48, 95% CI 3.27-40.31, p < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that POST (OR 33.96, 95% CI 4.03-286.10, p = 0.001) and EOT (OR 18.36, 95% CI 1.14-295.71, p = 0.04) MetctDNA was an independent risk factor for early recurrence. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (T-ROC) analysis revealed that area under the curve (AUC) value was greatest at the relapse time point of 6 months post-intervention, with POST-AUC and EOT-AUC values of 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.53-0.94), respectively. Serial MetctDNA analysis showed that RFS was significantly lower in patients with no MetctDNA clearance compared with those with MetctDNA clearance (HR 26.05, 95% CI 4.92-137.81, p < 0.001). Our study confirmed that serial ctDNA analysis of NPY and SEPT9 gene methylation could effectively predict early recurrence in IU-CRLM patients, especially at POST and EOT.

Clinical features of early recurrence of type I thoracolumbar intervertebral disk herniation in Miniature Dachshunds.

Some reports have been published on clinical features in dogs with early recurrence of type I thoracolumbar intervertebral disk herniation (TL-IVDH), but there is little understanding of the changes involved. This retrospective study describes the clinical features, including radiographic image results at the time of recurrence, of dogs with type I TL-IVDH that had undergone hemilaminectomy but then suffered early recurrence. Our medical records were searched between June 2007 and December 2022. Nine dogs showed deterioration in neurological signs within 4 to 6 weeks after surgery. All nine were Miniature Dachshunds. Radiographic images at initial onset showed calcification at the affected intervertebral disk space in all 9 dogs. Disk herniations at the initial onset were located between T11-12 and L1-2. After the first surgery, neurological function improved in all dogs. Recurrence occurred at the same site as at initial onset in all dogs. No calcification was observed at the affected intervertebral disk space on images at the time of recurrence. The extruded disk materials were surgically removed, and neurological function improved after the second surgery. In conclusion, calcification at the affected disk space at the time of initial onset is indicative of residual nucleus materials not yet fully extruded, and is a risk factor for early recurrence of type I TL-IVDH.

Long-term outcomes and early recurrence after resection for metachronous pulmonary metastases from colorectal cancer.

Properly selecting patients for aggressive curative resection for pulmonary metastases (PMs) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is desirable. We purposed to clarify prognostic factors and risk factors for early recurrence after metachronous PM resection. Clinical data of 151 patients who underwent R0 resection for metachronous PMs from CRC at two institutions between 2008 and 2021 were reviewed. Seventy-six patients (50.3%) were male, and the median age was 71 (42-91) years. The numbers of colon/rectal cancers were 76/75, with pStage I/II/III/IV/unknown in 15/34/86/13/3. The duration from primary surgery to PM was 19.7 (1.0-106.4) months. The follow-up period was 41.9 (0.3-156.2) months. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 75.1%, 53.7%, and 51.1%, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 97.7%, 87.5%, and 68.2%. On multivariate analysis, lymph node metastasis of the primary lesion (HR 1.683, 95%CI 1.003-2.824, p = 0.049) was an independent predictor of poor RFS, and history of resection for extrapulmonary metastasis (e-PM) (HR 2.328, 95%CI 1.139-4.761, p = 0.021) was an independent predictor of poor OS. Patients who experienced early recurrence (< 6months) after PM resection showed poorer OS than others (3-year OS 50.8% vs. 90.2%, p = 0.002). On multivariate analysis, e-PM was an independent predictor of early recurrence after PM resection (OR 3.989, 95%CI 1.002-15.885, p = 0.049). Since a history of e-PM was a predictor of early recurrence and poor OS after R0 resection for PM, surgical treatment of patients with a history of e-PM should be considered carefully.

Association between Lower Lobe Location and Early Recurrence for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Introduction: It is unclear whether a lower lobe origin is a risk factor for early recurrence of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in patients who underwent pulmonary resection. Methods: The risk factors for early recurrence, defined as recurrence occurring within 1 year after surgery, were analyzed in 476 patients with NSCLC who underwent pulmonary resection without wedge resection. Results: The proportion of men, Brinkman’s index, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) were significantly higher in patients with early recurrence than in those without early recurrence. Furthermore, the rates of lower lobe origin, extended resection beyond lobectomy, lymphatic invasion, vascular invasion, and advanced-stage disease were significantly higher in patients with early recurrence. Age (odds ratio [OR] = 4.46, p max (OR = 5.78, p = 0.02), a lower lobe origin (OR = 3.06, p = 0.01), and pathological stage (OR = 3.34, p = 0.01) were risk factors for early recurrence in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, only early recurrence (OR = 3.34, p = 0.01) was a risk factor for overall survival in multivariate analysis, and overall survival outcomes and prognoses significantly differed between patients with and without early recurrence (p Conclusion: Age, SUVmax, a lower lobe origin, and pathological stage are risk factors for early recurrence. These results suggest that for patients with NSCLC who underwent pulmonary resection, SUVmax and a lower lobe origin are important for deciding the indication for adjuvant chemotherapy in addition to pathological stage.

Predictive value of aMAP risk score for early recurrence of small hepatocellular carcinoma after microwave ablation

Objective: To explore the value of the aMAP risk score (age, male, albumin-bilirubin, and platelets) to predict early recurrence within one year after microwave ablation in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods: This was a retrospective study that enrolled 142 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma who were treated with microwave ablation in the Department of Hepatology Unit of Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University from July 2016 to July 2021. The cohort enrolled 121 male and 21 female patients, including 110 patients that were <60 years old. All the patients were followed-up after microwave ablation to evaluate residual tumor and recurrence of tumor by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The observation indices mainly included general data and imaging data of patients. Using the X-tile tools, patients were divided into two groups: a high aMAP score group and a low aMAP score group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted for comparison of independent risk factors. Results: Multivariate Cox regression showed that high aMAP score, maximum tumor diameter >20 mm, and high AFP were the independent risk factors of early recurrence (all P<0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the median recurrence-free survival was 25.5 months in the low aMAP score group and 6.1 months in the high aMAP score group (P=0.001). Conclusions: The aMAP score could predict the early recurrence within 1 year of small hepatocellular carcinoma after microwave ablation. Patients with high aMAP score should undergo rigorous postoperative follow-up evaluations..

Combination of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level and tumor size after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy may predict early recurrence of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BackgroundAlthough the overall survival rate of patients with resectable pancreatic cancer has gradually improved, some patients relapse early and have a poor prognosis. This study aimed to identify the preoperative risk factors for early recurrence after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer. MethodsThis study analyzed patients who underwent pancreatectomy after receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resectable pancreatic cancer between January 2009 and June 2021 and excluded those with borderline resectable and unresectable pancreatic cancers. Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 6 months after surgery. ResultsThis study included 203 patients, of whom 22 experienced early recurrence. The median survival time of patients with early recurrence was 18.3 months, which was significantly worse than that of patients with late recurrence (44.0 months, p < 0.001) or no recurrence (not reached, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that a carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level of >100 units/mL and a T status of ≥T2 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were independent predictive risk factors for early recurrence. The median recurrence-free survival time of patients with two risk factors was 9.7 months and significantly worse than that of those with either risk factors (20.5 months, p = 0.024) and those with no risk factor (26.2 months, p < 0.001). ConclusionsA combination of a high-level carbohydrate antigen 19–9 and a T status of ≥T2 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy are predictors of early recurrence and may be helpful for selecting patients who require a stronger preoperative treatment.