Risk Factors For Cancer-specific Survival Research Articles

Conditional survival probability of distant-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

BACKGROUND The prognosis of many patients with distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) improved after they survived for several months. Compared with traditional survival analysis, conditional survival (CS) which takes into account changes in survival risk could be used to describe dynamic survival probabilities. AIM To evaluate CS of distant metastatic HCC patients. METHODS Patients diagnosed with distant metastatic HCC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS), while competing risk model was used to identify risk factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS). Six-month CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 6 mo at a specific time after initial diagnosis, and standardized difference (d) was used to evaluate the survival differences between subgroups. Nomograms were constructed to predict CS. RESULTS Positive -fetoprotein expression, higher T stage (T3 and T4), N1 stage, non-primary site surgery, non-chemotherapy, non-radiotherapy, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for actual OS and CSS through univariate and multivariate analysis. Actual survival rates decreased over time, while CS rates gradually increased. As for the 6-month CS, the survival difference caused by chemotherapy and radiotherapy gradually disappeared over time, and the survival difference caused by lung metastasis reversed. Moreover, the influence of age and gender on survival gradually appeared. Nomograms were fitted for patients who have lived for 2, 4 and 6 mo to predict 6-month conditional OS and CSS, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of nomograms for conditional OS decreased as time passed, and the AUC for conditional CSS gradually increased. CONCLUSION CS for distant metastatic HCC patients substantially increased over time. With dynamic risk factors, nomograms constructed at a specific time could predict more accurate survival rates.

Development and validation of nomogram models to predict radiotherapy or chemotherapy benefit in stage III/IV gastric adenocarcinoma with surgery.

The advanced gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC) patients (stage III/IV) with surgery may have inconsistent prognoses due to different demographic and clinicopathological factors. In this retrospective study, we developed clinical prediction models for estimating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in advanced GAC patients with surgery. A retrospective analysis was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The total population from 2004 to 2015 was divided into four levels according to age, of which 179 were younger than 45 years old, 695 were 45-59 years old, 1064 were 60-74 years old, and 708 were older than 75 years old. There were 1,712 men and 934 women. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS. The models' calibration and discrimination efficiency were validated. Discrimination and accuracy were evaluated using the consistency index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots; and clinical usefulness was assessed using decision curve analysis. Cross-validation was also conducted to evaluate the accuracy and stability of the models. Prognostic factors identified by Cox regression were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. A total of 2,646 patients were included in our OS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as prognostic factors for OS in advanced GAC patients with surgery (P < 0.05). A total of 2,369 patients were included in our CSS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as risk factors for CSS in these patients (P < 0.05). These factors were used to construct the nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. The consistency index and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the models effectively differentiated between events and nonevents. The calibration plots for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS probability showed good consistence between the predicted and the actual events. The decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram had higher clinical predictive value and more significant net gain than AJCC 6th_TNM stage in predicting OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. Cross-validation also revealed good accuracy and stability of the models. The developed predictive models provided available prognostic estimates for advanced GAC patients with surgery. Our findings suggested that both OS and CSS can benefit from chemotherapy or radiotherapy in these patients.

Depth of invasion to the bladder wall as a prognostic factor and its association with circulating cell-free DNA levels in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

Radical cystectomy (RC) is the standard surgical treatment for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer, but the prognosis is not favorable, and new prognostic factors need to be discovered. We investigated the potential of depth of invasion (DOI) as a prognostic factor in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer who underwent RC. Furthermore, we examined the association between preoperative levels of circulating cell-free DNA and DOI. We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent RC between January 2007 and December 2017; those who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy were excluded. Depth of invasion was measured using hematoxylin-eosin-stained RC specimens. Of the 121 patients selected, 41 (33.9%) were eligible for analysis. The median follow-up period was 14 months and mean DOI was 17 mm (range, 2-75 mm). Long DOI (>17 mm) was significantly associated with shorter progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 14.5; 95% confidence interval, 3.9-53.97, p < 0.0001) and cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio, 18.97; 95% confidence interval, 4.04-88.99, p = 0.0002) compared with short DOI. Multivariate analysis revealed that DOI was an independent risk factor for cancer-specific survival. The levels of circulating cell-free DNA were significantly higher in patients with a longer DOI than in those with short DOI (65 vs. 20 ng/mL, respectively; p = 0.028). Depth of invasion predicted with levels of circulating cell-free DNA and thus could be a useful prognostic factor.

Survival of Testicular Pure Embryonal Carcinoma vs. Mixed Germ Cell Tumor Patients across All Stages

Background and Objectives: The impact of pure histological subtypes in testicular non-seminoma germ cell tumors on survival, specifically regarding pure embryonal carcinoma, is not well established. Therefore, this study aimed to test for differences between pure embryonal carcinoma and mixed germ cell tumor patients within stages I, II and III in a large population-based database. Materials and Methods: We relied on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2019) to identify testicular pure embryonal carcinoma vs. mixed germ cell tumor patients. Cumulative incidence plots depicted cancer-specific mortality that represented the main endpoint of interest. Multivariable competing risks regression models tested for differences between pure embryonal carcinoma and mixed germ cell tumor patients in analyses addressing cancer-specific mortality and adjusted for other-cause mortality. Results: Of 11,223 patients, 2473 (22%) had pure embryonal carcinoma. Pure embryonal carcinoma patients exhibited lower cancer-specific mortality relative to their mixed germ cell tumor counterparts for both stage III (13.9 vs. 19.4%; p < 0.01) and stage II (0.5 vs. 3.4%, p < 0.01), but not in stage I (0.9 vs. 1.6%, p = 0.1). In multivariable competing risks regression models, pure embryonal carcinoma exhibited more favorable cancer-specific mortality than mixed germ cell tumor in stage III (hazard ratio 0.71, p = 0.01) and stage II (hazard ratio 0.11, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Pure embryonal carcinoma exhibits a more favorable cancer-specific mortality profile relative to mixed germ cell tumor in stage II and III testicular cancers. Consequently, the presence of mixed germ cell tumor elements may be interpreted as a risk factor for cancer-specific survival.

Cytoreductive partial and radical nephrectomies provide equivalent oncologic outcomes in T1-2M1 renal cell carcinoma.

To compare the effectiveness of cytoreductive partial nephrectomy (CPN) and cytoreductive radical nephrectomy (CRN) in the treatment of metastatic T1-T2 renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We obtained the clinical and pathological data of patients with metastatic T1-T2 RCC who underwent CPN or CRN from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (https://seer.cancer.gov). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance differences in characteristics between CPN and CRN cases. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to assess the effect of partial nephrectomy (PN) versus radical nephrectomy (RN) on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). After screening, 866 eligible cases were obtained. During the 1-107 months of follow-up, 500 patients died, 453 (90.6%) of whom died of RCC. The tumor size in the CRN group was significantly greater than that in the CPN group. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that there was no significant difference in OS and CSS between the CPN group and the CRN group before and after matching. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis found that the risk factors for OS were older age at diagnosis [hazard ratio (HR) =1.02, P=0.008], non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) pathological type (HR =1.69, P=0.002), number of metastases ≥2 (HR =2.13, P<0.001), and regional lymph node involvement (HR =2.22, P=0.004), while the risk factors for CSS were non-ccRCC pathological type (HR =1.51, P=0.021) and the number of metastases ≥2 (HR =2.24, P <0.001). CPN can provide similar oncologic outcomes as can CRN in T1-2M1 cases, and tumor metastatic burden is a major risk factor for survival in these patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC).

Analysis of Risk Factors for Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma without Regional Lymph Node Metastasis and a Nomogram Prediction Model for Survival.

Negative regional lymph nodes do not indicate a lack of distant metastasis. A considerable number of patients with negative regional lymph node pancreatic cancer will skip the step of regional lymph node metastasis and directly develop distant metastasis. We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with negative regional lymph node pancreatic cancer and distant metastasis in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2015. Multivariate logistic analysis and Cox analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors that promoted distant metastasis and the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific survival in this subgroup. Sex, age, pathological grade, surgery, radiotherapy, race, tumor location, and tumor size were significantly correlated with distant metastasis (P < 0.05). Among these factors, pathological grade II and above, tumor site other than the pancreatic head, and tumor size >40 mm were independent risk factors for distant metastasis; age ≥60 years, tumor size ≤21 mm, surgery, and radiation were protective factors against distant metastasis. Age, pathological grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastasis site were identified as predictors of survival. Among them, age ≥40 years, pathological grade II and above, and multiple distant metastasis were considered independent risk factors for cancer-specific survival. Surgery and chemotherapy were considered protective factors for cancer-specific survival. The prediction performance of the nomogram was significantly better than that of the traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor, node, metastasis staging system. We also established an online dynamic nomogram calculator, which can predict the survival rate of patients at different follow-up time points. Pathological grade, tumor location, and tumor size were independent risk factors for distant metastasis in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with negative regional lymph nodes. Older age, smaller tumor size, surgery, and radiotherapy were protective factors against distant metastasis. A new nomogram that was constructed could effectively predict cancer-specific survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with negative regional lymph nodes and distant metastasis. Furthermore, an online dynamic nomogram calculator was established.

Development and validation of a survival nomogram for muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the elderly: using competing risk models and propensity matching to apply the prediction tool

Aim: Patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) have a low survival rate, with a 5-year survival of approximately 45%, regardless of the treatment received. The risk of death within 5 years after radical cystectomy in patients with MIBC remains as high as 60%. Over 80% of patients with bladder cancer are over 65. Therefore, identifying prognostic correlates associated with radical cystectomy in older patients with MIBC could improve survival rates. In addition, radiotherapy and chemotherapy are particularly important as adjuvant treatments for MIBC patients undergoing radical cystectomy. Therefore, this study aimed to find risk factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) after radical cystectomy in elderly MIBC patients. The difference in survival between radiotherapy and chemotherapy was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves to provide theoretical support for whether radiotherapy is recommended for such patients. Methods: Patients 65 or older diagnosed with MIBC with radical cystectomy between 2004-2018 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. 2004-2015 patients were subjected to column line plot production and internal validation, and 2016-2018 patients were subjected to external temporal validation. A single-factor COX regression model was first used to screen for prognostic correlates. Then a multi-factor COX regression model was used to screen for independent risk factors. A nomogram was constructed by using independent risk factors. The accuracy and reliability of the nomogram were examined using calibration curves, consistency index (C-index), and area under subjects (AUC) as operational characteristic curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical value of the prediction model. Results: A total of 11,557 patients were included in this study, divided into training set (N = 4,712), validation set (N = 4,810) and external validation set (N = 2,035). Multivariate COX regression models showed that chemotherapy, radiotherapy, TNM stage, race, and age were independent risk factors for CSS and OS patients. We constructed a nomogram to predict CSS and OS in elderly MIBC patients undergoing radical cystectomy. The C-indexes were 0.692 (95%CI: 0.680-0.704) and 0.690 (95%CI: 0.678-0.702) for the CSS training and validation sets, respectively, and 0.674 for the OS training and validation sets (95%CI: 0.664-0.684) and 0.672 (95%CI: 0.662-0.682) for the OS training and validation sets, respectively. The C-index of the external validation set CSS was 0.731 (95%CI: 709-0.753), and that of OS was 0.721 (95%CI: 0.701-0.741), indicating that the nomogram prediction model has good discriminative power. The calibration curves and AUC also suggested that the nomogram had good accuracy and discrimination. In addition, the KM curves of propensity-matched pre- and post-radiotherapy showed that radiotherapy was detrimental to patient survival. Meanwhile, chemotherapy favored OS and short-term CSS but not long-term CSS. Conclusions: We established a nomogram to predict the CSS and OS in elderly MIBC patients undergoing radical cystectomy. After internal cross-validation and external validation, the nomogram prediction model showed good accuracy and reliability, and the DCA results showed that the nomogram has good clinical value. In addition, this study gave good suggestions on whether radiotherapy or chemotherapy is necessary for radical cystectomy in elderly MIBC patients.

Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with penoscrotal extramammary Paget’s disease: A retrospective study in the SEER database and two medical centers

Extramammary Paget' s disease (EMPD) is a rare cutaneous malignant tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with penoscrotal EMPD remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to investigate prognostic factors and construct nomograms to predict the outcome of patients with EMPD located in the penis or scrotum. From the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we extracted 95 patients with primary EMPD located in the penis or scrotum as the training cohort. Forty-nine penoscrotal EMPD patients were included from two medical centers as the external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model were applied to investigating risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Based on the results of multivariate Cox regression analysis, the nomograms were constructed for predicting CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were applied to evaluate the practicability and accuracy of the nomograms. In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marital status and tumor stage were independent factors of CSS, and marital status, tumor stage and surgery are associated with OS independently in patients with penoscrotal EMPD. Based on these results, we developed nomograms to predict CSS and OS respectively. The C-index values were 0.778 for CSS, and 0.668 for OS in the training set, which displayed the good discriminations. In the external validation set, the C-index values were 0.945 for CSS, and 0.703 for OS. The areas under the curve (AUC) values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.815, 0.833, and 0.861 respectively, and 0.839, 0.654, and 0.667 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. In the validation set, the AUC values of nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.944, 0.896, and 0.896 respectively, and 0.777, 0.762 and 0.692 for nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS respectively. Additionally, the internal calibration curves also proved that our nomograms have good accuracy. By incorporating marital status, tumor stage and/or surgery, our nomograms can efficiently predict CSS and OS of patients with penoscrotal EMPD.

Time to castration resistance is a novel prognostic factor of cancer-specific survival in patients with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

We aimed to identify prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (M0CRPC) patients. The final analysis of this retrospective cohort included 82 patients who were diagnosed as M0CRPC between 1998 and 2018 at the University of Tokyo Hospital. CRPC was defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression (increased PSA ≥ 25% and ≥ 2 ng/mL above the nadir or detection of a metastatic lesion). The median value of age and PSA at the time of CRPC were 76 (range 55–94) years and 2.84 (range 2.04–22.5) ng/mL, respectively. The median follow-up time from CRPC diagnosis was 38 (range 3–188) months. The prognostic factors of CSS were ‘PSA doubling time (PSADT) ≤ 3 months’, ‘time to CRPC diagnosis from the start of androgen deprivation therapy (TTCRPC) ≤ 12 months’, of which TTCRPC was a novel risk factor of CSS. In the multivariate analysis, ‘PSADT ≤ 3 months’ and TTCRPC ≤ 12 months’ remained as statistically significant predictors of CSS. Novel risk stratification was developed based on the number of these risk factors. The high-risk group showed a hazard ratio of 4.416 (95% confidence interval 1.701–11.47, C-index = 0.727).

Decreased Preoperative Serum AGR as a Diagnostic Marker of Poor Prognosis after Radical Surgery of Upper Urinary Tract and Bladder Cancers from a Pooled Analysis of 9,002 Patients.

A growing number of studies have regarded the preoperative serum albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) as a prognostic indicator of urothelial carcinoma (UC) following radical surgery. However, a pooled analysis of AGR's effect on UC prognosis was still insufficient. Up to January 2022, a systematic search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Stata SE software was applied in this study. The reviewers collected the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and metastasis-free survival (MFS). A total of 9,002 patients from 12 retrospective studies were included in this analysis. The results showed that preoperative serum AGR was significantly associated with the OS (HR = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.43 to 2.39), CSS (HR = 2.38, 95%CI = 1.69 to 3.34), RFS (HR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.29 to 2.08), PFS (HR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.43 to 3.27), and MFS (HR = 3.00, 95%CI = 1.63 to 5.53) of patients with UC following radical surgery. Sensitivity analysis indicated the stability of the results. Subgroup analysis revealed that preoperative low AGR was seen as a risk factor for OS (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.34 to 2.69), CSS (HR = 2.13, 95%CI = 1.40 to 3.26), and RFS (HR = 1.60, 95%CI = 1.24 to 2.07) in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), but it was only a risk factor for CSS (HR = 2.95, 95%CI = 1.14 to 7.60) in bladder cancer (BC). Besides, preoperative AGR cut − value ≤ 1.4 could not be deemed as a stable prognostic indicator for RFS (HR = 2.07, 95%CI = 0.71 to 6.04) in UC. However, the predictive ability of AGR cut − value > 1.4 was stable. All in all, preoperative low AGR was considered as a risk factor for UC. AGR level can be regarded as a prognostic indicator for OS, CSS, and RFS in UTUC but only for CSS in BC. AGR greater than 1.4 can be a great cut-off value for predicting the prognosis of UC patients with radical operation.

Surgical Methods and Social Factors Are Associated With Long-Term Survival in Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma: Construction and Validation of a Prognostic Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithms.

BackgroundThis study aimed to establish and verify an effective machine learning (ML) model to predict the prognosis of follicular thyroid cancer (FTC), and compare it with the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) model.MethodsKaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to analyze the risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS). Propensity-score matching (PSM) was used to adjust the confounding factors of different surgeries. Nine different ML algorithms,including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forests (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GaussianNB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP),were used to build prognostic models of FTC.10-fold cross-validation and SHapley Additive exPlanations were used to train and visualize the optimal ML model.The AJCC model was built by multivariate Cox regression and visualized through nomogram. The performance of the XGBoost model and AJCC model was mainly assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC).ResultsMultivariate Cox regression showed that age, surgical methods, marital status, T classification, N classification and M classification were independent risk factors of CSS. Among different surgeries, the prognosis of one-sided thyroid lobectomy plus isthmectomy (LO plus IO) was the best, followed by total thyroidectomy (hazard ratios: One-sided thyroid LO plus IO, 0.086[95% confidence interval (CI),0.025-0.290], P<0.001; total thyroidectomy (TT), 0.490[95%CI,0.295-0.814], P=0.006). PSM analysis proved that one-sided thyroid LO plus IO, TT, and partial thyroidectomy had no significant differences in long-term prognosis. Our study also revealed that married patients had better prognosis than single, widowed and separated patients (hazard ratios: single, 1.686[95%CI,1.146-2.479], P=0.008; widowed, 1.671[95%CI,1.163-2.402], P=0.006; separated, 4.306[95%CI,2.039-9.093], P<0.001). Among different ML algorithms, the XGBoost model had the best performance, followed by Gaussian NB, RF, LR, MLP, LightGBM, AdaBoost, KNN and SVM. In predicting FTC prognosis, the predictive performance of the XGBoost model was relatively better than the AJCC model (AUROC: 0.886 vs. 0.814).ConclusionFor high-risk groups, effective surgical methods and well marital status can improve the prognosis of FTC. Compared with the traditional AJCC model, the XGBoost model has relatively better prediction accuracy and clinical usage.

Clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of resectable lung adenosquamous carcinoma: a population-based study of the SEER database.

Adenosquamous carcinoma is a rare subtype of non-small cell lung cancer characterized by aggressive behavior, with combination of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma components. The clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of resectable adenosquamous carcinoma are incompletely understood and this study aimed to depict those in a large population. A total of 805 adenosquamous carcinoma, 7875 squamous cell carcinoma and 23 957 adenocarcinoma patients who underwent lobectomy or sublobectomy were queried from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010-17). Clinicopathological characteristics of adenosquamous carcinoma patients were compared with those of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma patients. Prognostic factors were identified by univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Propensity score matching was applied to reduce confounding effects. Adenosquamous carcinoma was associated with higher pleural invasion incidence and poorer differentiation compared with squamous cell carcinoma or adenocarcinoma (P values < 0.001). The independent risk factors of cancer-specific survival of adenosquamous carcinoma patients were increasing age, male sex, invading through visceral pleura, poor differentiation and higher stage. Stage IB adenosquamous carcinoma patients whose tumor invaded through visceral pleura had significantly worse survival than those not (P=0.003). Adenosquamous carcinoma patients had worse survival compared with squamous cell carcinoma (5-year-survival: 64.55 vs. 69.09%, P=0.003) and adenocarcinoma (5-year-survival: 64.55 vs. 76.79%, P<0.001) patients before match. And this difference persisted after match. Resectable adenosquamous carcinoma patients had higher pleural invasion incidence, poorer differentiation and worse survival compared with squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma patients. Visceral pleural invasion status and differentiation grade were vital prognostic factors of adenosquamous carcinoma patients on the basis of stage.

Is Age ≥ 55 years an optimal cutoff point among patients with differentiated thyroid Microcarcinoma? a preliminary study

PurposeAge ≥ 55 years is regarded as a pivotal component of TNM stage classification in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). However, whether this cutoff point is still adaptable for differentiated thyroid microcarcinoma (DTMC) is rarely investigated. MethodsWe reviewed and analyzed the data of DTC patients aged ≥ 55 years from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine the potential risk factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in DTMC patients aged ≥ 55 years. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate CSS probability. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze the best age cutoff point for DTMC. ResultsAmong the DTMC patients, there was no significant difference in the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year CSS probability between the 55–59 years and 60–64-years subgroup (p = 0.72). The ROC curves indicated that 65 years, 65 years, and 64 years were the cutoff age point of 3-, 5-, and 7-year CSS probability in DTMC patients, respectively. Besides, N1b (Hazard ratio (HR) = 3.90, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 2.01–7.57; p < 0.001), extrathyroidal extension (HR = 2.53, 95 %CI: 1.39–4.62; p = 0.002), and M1 (HR = 11.42, 95 %CI: 5.04–25.90; p < 0.001) were the independent risk factors in CSS of DTMC patients. ConclusionsOur results suggested age at diagnosis ≥ 55 years is not the best cutoff point in stratifying the stage of the DTMC patients. On the contrary, those patients aged above 65 years have a significantly lower probability of CSS, which perhaps should be taken into consideration for treatment decision-making.

Elderly Patients with Nondistant Metastatic Pancreatic Head Adenocarcinoma Cannot Benefit from More Radical Surgery.

Background The incidence of pancreatic cancer continues to rise globally, with pancreatic head cancer accounting for nearly 60–70%. Pancreatic head cancer occurs mainly in people over the age of 60, and its morbidity and mortality increase with age. We investigated whether these elderly patients with nondistant metastases would benefit more from expanded pancreaticoduodenectomy (EPD) compared with standard pancreaticoduodenectomy (SPD). Methods 3317 elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer from the SEER database were included in the study based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These patients were divided into a nonsurgical group and surgical group (including EPD and SPD). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were applied to identify the independent risk factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS). The survival differences between the nonsurgical group and surgical group were compared. Propensity score matching (PSM) methods were applied to balance covariates and reduce the interference of confounding variables. The two groups of patients were matched in a 1 : 1 ratio, and the covariates between the two groups were compared to verify the matching validity. The survival difference in different groups was compared after the matching analysis. Results 3317 enrolled patients were divided into the surgical group (n = 984) and nonsurgical group (n = 2333). Before PSM, there were significant differences in overall survival (OS) and CSS between the nonsurgical group and surgical group (median OS: 8 months vs. 20 months, P < 0.001; median CSS: 8 months vs. 22 months, P < 0.001). The multivariate CSS Cox regression analysis demonstrated surgery is an independent risk factor. However, no significant differences were founded between the SPD and EPD groups (median OS: 20 months vs. 22 months, P=0.636; median CSS: 22 months vs. 22 months, P=0.270). After PSM, there were also no significant differences in OS and CSS between the SPD and EPD groups (median OS: 23 months vs. 18 months, P=0.415; median CSS: 26 months vs. 18 months, P=0.329). Conclusion This study uses PSM to evaluate the effects of EPD and SPD for elderly patients with nondistant metastatic pancreatic head adenocarcinoma. It found that surgery is an independent prognostic factor, but expanded surgery has no survival advantage for these patients, whereas SPD provides a better survival advantage than EPD. SPD is a reasonable treatment option for these patients.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Middle-Aged Patients With Non-metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study.

BackgroundRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) is one of the most common cancers in middle-aged patients. We aimed to establish a new nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (nmRCC).MethodsThe clinicopathological information of all patients from 2010 to 2018 was downloaded from the SEER database. These patients were randomly assigned to the training set (70%) and validation set (30%). Univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC in the training set. Based on these independent risk factors, a new nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC. Then, we used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and area under receiver operating curve (AUC) to validate the accuracy and discrimination of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to validate the clinical application value of the model.ResultsA total of 27,073 patients were included in the study. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (N = 18,990) and a validation set (N = 8,083). In the training set, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgical method are independent risk factors for CSS of patients. A new nomogram was constructed to predict patients' 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. The C-index of the training set and validation set were 0.818 (95% CI: 0.802-0.834) and 0.802 (95% CI: 0.777-0.827), respectively. The 1 -, 3 -, and 5-year AUC for the training and validation set ranged from 77.7 to 80.0. The calibration curves of the training set and the validation set indicated that the predicted value is highly consistent with the actual observation value, indicating that the model has good accuracy. DCA also suggested that the model has potential clinical application value.ConclusionWe found that independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC were age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgery. We have constructed a new nomogram to predict the CSS of middle-aged patients with nmRCC. This model has good accuracy and reliability and can assist doctors and patients in clinical decision making.

Operative and Survival Outcomes of Robotic-Assisted Surgery for Colorectal Cancer in Elderly and Very Elderly Patients: A Study in a Tertiary Hospital in South Korea.

Materials and Methods Data of all patients ≥75 years who underwent a robotic-assisted curative resection in Korea University Anam Hospital, Seoul, South Korea, between January 2007 and January 2021 were extracted from a prospectively maintained colorectal cancer database. Patients were subdivided into the three groups according to the age: youngest-old (YO: 75–80 years), middle-old (MO: 81–85), and oldest-old (OO: ≥86 years). Intraoperative findings, postoperative, and oncological outcomes were compared between the groups. Results Seventy-six consecutive patients (female 52.6%) were included; mean age was 80 years (SD 0.33); mean body mass index (BMI), 23.8 20.9 kg/m2 (SD 3.58); mean total operative time, 279 min (SD 80.93); mean blood loss, 186 ml (SD 204.03); mean postoperative length of stay, 14 days (SD 12.03). Major complications were seen in 2.1% of patients. The 30-day mortality rate was 0%. Average number of lymph node harvested was 20.9 (SD 12.33). Postoperative complications were not statistically different between the groups. Mean follow-up time for cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 99.28 months for the YO, 72.11 months for MO, and 31.25 months for OO groups (p = 0.045). The CSS rates at 5 years were 27.0%, 21.0%, and 0%, respectively. Recurrence risk was 10.50 times higher in the OO group than the others (adjusted HR, 95% CI 1.868–59.047, p = 0.008). In the multivariable analysis, TNM stage was not a risk factor for CSS in all groups. The number of the harvested nodes was a protective factor for recurrence (HR of 0.932, 95% CI 0.875–0.992, p = 0.027) and CSS (HR of 0.928, 95% CI 0.861–0.999, p = 0.047) in elderly patients. Conclusion Robotic surgery is highly feasible in elderly and very elderly colorectal cancer patients, providing a favorable operative safety profile and an acceptable cancer-specific survival outcome.

Cancer-Specific Survival Outcome in Early-Stage Young Breast Cancer: Evidence From the SEER Database Analysis.

BackgroundYoung women with breast cancer are determined to present poorer survival compare with elderly patients. Therefore, identifying the clinical prognostic factors in young women with early-stage (T1-2N0-1M0) breast cancer is pivotal for surgeons to make better postoperative management.MethodsThe clinicopathological characteristics of female patients with early-stage breast cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between Jan 2010 and Dec 2015 were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine the potential risk factors of cancer-specific survival in young women with early-stage breast cancer. The nomogram was constructed and further evaluated by an internal validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate cancer-specific survival probability and the cumulative incidence.ResultsSix variables including race, tumor location, grade, regional lymph node status, tumor subtype, and size were identified to be significantly associated with the prognosis of young women with early-stage breast cancer during the postoperative follow-up. A nomogram for predicting the 3-, 5- year cancer-specific survival probability in this subpopulation group was established with a favorable concordance index of 0.783, supported by an internal validation cohort with the AUC of 0.722 and 0.696 in 3-, 5- year cancer-specific survival probability, respectively.ConclusionsThe first predictive nomogram containing favorable discrimination is successfully established and validated for predicting the 3-, 5- year cancer-specific survival probability in young women with early-stage breast cancer during the postoperative follow-up. This model would help clinicians to make accurate treatment decisions in different clinical risk population.

Establishment and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Patients With Parotid Gland Adenocarcinoma Not Otherwise Specified: A SEER Analysis From 2004 to 2016.

Background: Parotid gland adenocarcinoma not otherwise specified (PANOS) is a rare malignant tumor with limited data on its characteristics and prognosis. This research is aimed at characterizing PANOS and developing prognostic prediction models for patients with PANOS.Methods: Cases from 2004–2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were applied to ascertain the factors associated with survival. Competing risk analysis and Gray's tests were employed to analyze cancer-specific death. Propensity score matching (1:1) was conducted to reduce the influence of confounding variables.Results: A total of 446 patients with a median age of 66 years were selected, of which 307 were diagnosed with stage III/IV PANOS. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of all patients was 51.8%, and the median survival time was 66 months. Surgical treatment clearly improved survival time (p < 0.001). In the subgroup analysis, radiotherapy showed survival benefits in patients with stage III/IV disease (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that age, T classification, N classification, M classification and surgery were independent prognostic indicators for OS; T classification, N classification, M classification and surgery were independent risk factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS). In addition, age was independently associated with other cause-specific death. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, two nomograms were developed and verified by the concordance index (C-index) (0.747 and 0.780 for OS and CSS) and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (0.756, 0.764, and 0.819 regarding for nomograms predicting 3-, 5-, and 10- year OS, respectively and 0.794, 0.789, and 0.806 for CSS, respectively).Conclusions: Our study clearly presents the clinicopathological features and survival analysis of patients with PANOS. In addition, our constructed nomogram prediction models may assist physicians in evaluating the individualized prognosis and deciding on treatment for patients.

From LI-RADS Classification to HCC Pathology: A Retrospective Single-Institution Analysis of Clinico-Pathological Features Affecting Oncological Outcomes after Curative Surgery.

Background: The latest Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) classification by the American College of Radiology has been recently endorsed in the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) guidelines for Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management. Although the LI-RADS protocol has been developed as a diagnostic algorithm, there is some evidence concerning a possible correlation between different LI-RADS classes and specific pathological features of HCC. We aimed to investigate such radiological/pathological correlation and the possible prognostic implication of LI-RADS on a retrospective cohort of HCC patients undergoing surgical resection. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of the pathological characteristics of resected HCC, exploring their distribution among different LI-RADS classes and analyzing the risk factors for recurrence-free, overall and cancer-specific survival Results: LI-RADS-5 (LR-5) nodules showed a higher prevalence of microvascular invasion (MVI), satellitosis and capsule infiltration, as well as higher median values of alpha-fetoprotein (αFP) compared to LI-RADS-3/4 (LR-3/4) nodules. MVI, αFP, satellitosis and margin-positive (R1) resection resulted as independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival, while LI-RADS class did not exert any significant impact. Focusing on overall survival, we identified patient age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS), Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, αFP, MVI, satellitosis and R1 resection as independent risk factors for survival, without any impact of LI-RADS classification. Last, MELD score, log10αFP, satellitosis and R1 resection resulted as independent risk factors for cancer-specific survival, while LI-RADS class did not exert any significant impact. Conclusions: Our results suggest an association of LR-5 class with unfavorable pathological characteristics of resected HCC; tumor histology and underlying patient characteristics such as age, ECOG-PS and liver disease severity exert a significant impact on postoperative oncological outcomes.

Risk factors for cancer-specific survival in elderly gastric cancer patients after curative gastrectomy.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVESThis study aimed to investigate cancer-specific survival (CSS) and associated risk factors in elderly gastric cancer (EGC) patients.SUBJECTS/METHODSEGC patients (≥ 70 yrs) who underwent curative gastrectomy between January 2013 and December 2017 at our hospital were included. Clinicopathologic characteristics and survival data were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to extract the best cutoff point for body mass index (BMI). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the risk factors for CSS.RESULTSIn total, 290 EGC patients were included, with a median age of 74.7 yrs. The median follow-up time was 31 (1–77) mon. The postoperative 1-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr CSS rates were 93.7%, 75.9% and 65.1%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed risk factors for CSS, including age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.15), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (HR = 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08–2.79), nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002) score ≥ 5 (HR = 2.33; 95% CI, 1.49–3.75), and preoperative prognostic nutrition index score < 45 (HR = 2.06; 95% CI, 1.27–3.33). The ROC curve showed that the best BMI cutoff value was 20.6 kg/m2. Multivariate analysis indicated that a BMI ≤ 20.6 kg/m2 (HR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.36–3.87), ICU admission (HR = 1.97; 95% CI, 1.17–3.30) and TNM stage (stage II: HR = 5.56; 95% CI, 1.59–19.43; stage III: HR = 16.20; 95% CI, 4.99–52.59) were significantly associated with CSS.CONCLUSIONSLow BMI (≤ 20.6 kg/m2), ICU admission and advanced pathological TNM stages (II and III) are independent risk factors for CSS in EGC patients after curative gastrectomy. Nutrition support, better perioperative management and early diagnosis would be helpful for better survival.