Risk Factor For Mortality Research Articles

The Impact of Comorbidities and Obesity on the Severity of COVID-19 and Risk Factors for Mortality, A Prospective Study in Hospitalized Patients

The Impact of Comorbidities and Obesity on the Severity of COVID-19 and Risk Factors for Mortality, A Prospective Study in Hospitalized Patients

Survival of In-Hospital Cardiopulmonary Arrest in Trauma Patients

IntroductionRelative to other hospitalized patients, trauma patients are younger with fewer comorbidities, but the incidence and outcomes of in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest (IHCA) with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in this population is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to investigate factors associated with survival in trauma patients after IHCA to test the hypothesis that compared to other hospitalized patients, trauma patients with IHCA have improved survival. MethodsRetrospective review of the Trauma Quality Improvement Program database 2017 to 2019 for patients who had IHCA with CPR. Primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital complications, hospital length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay, and ventilator days. Data were compared with univariate and multivariate analyses at P < 0.05. ResultsIn 22,346,677 admitted trauma patients, 14,056 (0.6%) received CPR. Four thousand three hundred seventy-seven (31.1%) survived to discharge versus 26.4% in a national sample of all hospitalized patients (P < 0.001). In trauma patients, median age was 55 y, the majority were male (72.2%). Mortality was higher for females versus males (70.3% versus 68.3%, P = 0.026). Multivariate regression showed that older age 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.02), Hispanic ethnicity 1.21 (95% CI 1.04-1.40), and penetrating trauma 1.51 (95% CI 1.32-1.72) were risk factors for mortality, while White race was a protective factor 0.36 (95% CI 0.14-0.89). ConclusionsThis is the first study to show that the incidence of IHCA with CPR is approximately six in 1000 trauma admissions and 31% survive to hospital discharge, which is higher than other hospitalized patients. Age, gender, racial, and ethnic disparities also influence survival.

Impact of ventricular assist device use on pediatric heart transplant waitlist mortality: Analysis of the scientific registry of transplant recipients database.

Children awaiting heart transplant (Tx) have a high risk of death due to donor organ scarcity. Historically, ventricular assist devices (VADs) reduced waitlist mortality, prompting increased VAD use. We sought to determine whether the VAD survival benefit persists in the current era. Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients listed for Tx between 3/22/2016 and 9/1/2020. We compared characteristics of VAD and non-VAD groups at Tx listing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for 1-year waitlist mortality. Among 5054 patients, 764 (15%) had a VAD at Tx listing. The VAD group was older with more mechanical ventilation and renal impairment. Unadjusted waitlist mortality was similar between groups; the curves crossed ~90 days after listing (p = .55). In multivariable analysis, infant age (HR 2.77, 95%CI 2.13-3.60), Black race (HR 1.57, 95%CI 1.31-1.88), congenital heart disease (HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.04-1.46), renal impairment (HR 2.67, 95%CI 2.19-3.26), inotropes (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.09-1.52), and mechanical ventilation (HR 2.23, 95%CI 1.84-2.70) were associated with 1-year waitlist mortality. VADs were not associated with mortality in the first 90 waitlist days but were protective for those waiting ≥90 days (HR 0.43, 95%CI 0.26-0.71). In the current era, VADs reduce waitlist mortality, but only for those waitlisted ≥90 days. The differential effect by race, size, and VAD type is less clear. These findings suggest that Tx listing without VAD may be reasonable if a short waitlist time is anticipated, but VADs may benefit those expected to wait >90 days.

Pancreatic Injury Is Associated with Poor Prognosis in Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease. Previous studies have primarily focused on the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with SFTS, whereas pancreatic injury has received little attention. This study investigated the effects of pancreatic injury on the prognosis of patients with SFTS. A total of 156 patients diagnosed with SFTS between April 2016 and April 2022 were included in the analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that pancreatic injury (odds ratio [OR] = 3.754, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.361-79.036, P = 0.024) and neurological symptoms (OR = 18.648, 95% CI: 4.921-70.668, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that serum pancreatic enzymes were predictive of progression to death in patients with SFTS. The area under the curve (AUC) for amylase was 0.711, with an optimal cutoff value of 95.5 U/L, sensitivity of 96.4%, and specificity of 35.9%. Lipase had an AUC of 0.754, an optimal cutoff value of 354.75 U/L, sensitivity of 75%, and specificity of 67.2%. Thus, pancreatic injury was associated with a poor prognosis of SFTS and can be used as an important reference for SFTS determination and prognostic assessment.

Impact of serum iron levels on in-hospital mortality and clinical outcomes in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention: a retrospective analysis.

Despite advances in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), in-hospital mortality remains a concern, highlighting the need for the identification of additional risk factors such as serum iron levels. This study aims to assess the relationship between serum iron levels and in-hospital mortality among patients with STEMI undergoing emergency PCI. A total of 685 patients diagnosed with STEMI, treated with emergency PCI between January 2020 and June 2023, were included in this retrospective observational study. Participants were categorized based on serum iron levels into a low serum iron group (Fe <7.8 μmol/L) and a control group (Fe ≥7.8 μmol/L). Clinical and biochemical variables were compared between the groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The low serum iron group demonstrated significantly higher in-hospital mortality rates (9.3 vs. 1.0%, P < 0.05) compared with the control group. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that a left ventricular ejection fraction less than 40% upon admission [odds ratio (OR), 8.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.230-52.173; P = 0.029], the occurrence of no-reflow during PCI (OR, 7.13; 95% CI, 1.311-38.784; P = 0.023), and serum iron levels below 7.8 μmol/L (OR, 11.32; 95% CI, 2.345-54.640; P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Low serum iron levels are associated with increased in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing emergency PCI. Serum iron levels may serve as an independent prognostic marker and could inform risk stratification and therapeutic targeting in this patient population.

New Insights on Mechanisms and Therapeutic Targets of Cerebral Edema.

Cerebral Edema (CE) is the final common pathway of brain death. In severe neurological disease, neuronal cell damage first contributes to tissue edema, and then Increased Intracranial Pressure (ICP) occurs, which results in diminishing cerebral perfusion pressure. In turn, anoxic brain injury brought on by decreased cerebral perfusion pressure eventually results in neuronal cell impairment, creating a vicious cycle. Traditionally, CE is understood to be tightly linked to elevated ICP, which ultimately generates cerebral hernia and is therefore regarded as a risk factor for mortality. Intracranial hypertension and brain edema are two serious neurological disorders that are commonly treated with mannitol. However, mannitol usage should be monitored since inappropriate utilization of the substance could conversely have negative effects on CE patients. CE is thought to be related to bloodbrain barrier dysfunction. Nonetheless, a fluid clearance mechanism called the glial-lymphatic or glymphatic system was updated. This pathway facilitates the transport of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) into the brain along arterial perivascular spaces and later into the brain interstitium. After removing solutes from the neuropil into meningeal and cervical lymphatic drainage arteries, the route then directs flows into the venous perivascular and perineuronal regions. Remarkably, the dual function of the glymphatic system was observed to protect the brain from further exacerbated damage. From our point of view, future studies ought to concentrate on the management of CE based on numerous targets of the updated glymphatic system. Further clinical trials are encouraged to apply these agents to the clinic as soon as possible.

EASIX is an effective marker in predicting mortality of traumatic brain injury patients

BackgroundThe Endothelial Activation and Stress Index (EASIX) is a novel marker of endothelial injury and correlates with survival of various patients. The endothelial dysfunction plays an important role on the pathophysiological process of traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study was designed to explore the prognostic value of EASIX on TBI patients.Methods358 TBI patients hospitalized in the West China hospital between October 2018 and October 2022 were enrolled for this study. The EASIX was calculated based on the formula: lactate dehydrogenase (U/L) × creatinine (mg/dL)/platelets (109 cells/L). The univariate and multivariate logistic regression with forward method was performed to explore the association between EASIX and mortality. A prognostic model was developed combining significant risk factors in the multivariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the EASIX and the developed model.ResultsThe 30-day mortality of enrolled 358 TBI patients was 51.1%. Non-survivors had higher EASIX than survivors (p < 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression confirmed seven risk factors for mortality of TBI including injury mechanism (p = 0.010), GCS (p < 0.001), glucose (p < 0.001), EASIX (p = 0.017), subdural hematoma (p = 0.012), coagulopathy (p = 0.001). The AUC of EASIX, SOFA, GCS was 0.747, 0.748 and 0.774, respectively. The AUC of developed predictive model was 0.874 with the sensitivity of 0.913 and specificity of 0.686.ConclusionsThe EASIX is a reliable marker for predicting mortality of TBI patients. The predictive model incorporating EASIX is helpful for clinicians to evaluate the mortality risk of TBI patients.

Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Serum Albumin Ratio Predicts Fatal Outcomes in Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Patients.

There are no effective therapies for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and existing predictors of mortality are still controversial. This retrospective study aimed to identify reliable early-stage indicators for predicting fatal outcomes in 217 patients hospitalized with an SFTS diagnosis between March 2021 and November 2023; 157 of the patients survived, and 60 died. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory parameters were reassessed in both groups. The mean age of participants was 64.0 (interquartile range: 54.5-71.0) years, and 42.4% (92/217) were males. Based on a multivariate Cox regression analysis, the blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio (BAR) (hazard ratio [HR]:4.751; 95% CI: 2.208-10.226; P <0.001), procalcitonin level (HR: 1.946; 95% CI: 1.080-3.507; P = 0.027), and central nervous system symptoms (HR: 3.257; 95% CI, 1.628-6.513; P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality in SFTS patients. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a BAR with an area under the curve of 0.913 (95% CI: 0.873-0.953; P <0.001), a sensitivity of 76.7%, and a specificity of 90.4% showed better predictive performance for fatal outcomes than other classical indicators reported. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve confirmed that an increased BAR was linked with an unfavorable prognosis in SFTS patients (P <0.001 by log-rank test). In conclusion, the results indicate that high BAR levels are markedly related to substandard outcomes and are a reliable and readily accessible predictor of fatal outcomes in SFTS patients.

Sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for short-term mortality in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

Sarcopenia is common in patients with cirrhosis and is a risk factor for increased mortality. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement has been utilized in cirrhosis patients with decompensation. We investigated the role of sarcopenia in predicting mortality in patients undergoing TIPS. We conducted a single-center retrospective study of 232 patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS between January 2010 and December 2015. Sarcopenia was defined by the psoas muscle index (PMI) cutoff value, calculated based on dynamic time-dependent outcomes using X-tile software. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated the difference in survival in the sarcopenia group versus the non-sarcopenia group. . Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the relationship between sarcopenia and post-TIPS mortality during a follow-up period of 1 year. For TIPS indications, 111 (47.84%) patients had refractory ascites, 69 (29.74%) patients had variceal bleeding, 12 (5.17%) patients had ascites, and 40 (17.24%) for other indications. The mean PMI was 4.40 ± 1.55. Sarcopenia was defined as a PMI value of <4.36 in males, and <3.23 in females. Sarcopenia was present in 96 (41.38%) of patients. . Kaplan-Meier analysis showed thatsarcopenia is associated with worse survival (log-rank P < 0.01). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that sarcopenia is independently associated with worse survival during the 1-year follow-up period with an hazard ratio of 2.435 (95% CI 1.346-4.403) (P < 0.01), after adjusting for age, BMI, indications for TIPS, etiology for cirrhosis, and MELD score and stratified by sex. Sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in patients undergoing TIPS and should be considered when patients are evaluated as a candidate for TIPS.

Postoperative morbidity following Hartmann's procedure in comparison to anterior resection and abdominoperineal resection for rectal cancer-a population-based study.

There is ongoing controversy regarding the extent to which Hartmann's procedure (HP) should be used in rectal cancer treatment. This study was designed to investigate 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality following HP, anterior resection (AR) and abdominoperineal resection (APR) for rectal cancer using a national registry. All patients operated for rectal cancer, tumour height 5-15 cm, between the years 2010 and 2017, were identified through the Swedish colorectal cancer registry. A total of 8476 patients were included: 1210 (14%) undergoing HP, 5406 (64%) AR and 1860 (22%) APR. HP was associated with an increased risk of intra-abdominal infection (OR 1.7, CI 1.26-2.28, P = 0.0004) compared to AR and APR, while APR was related to an increased risk of overall complications (OR 1.18, CI 1.01-1.40, P = 0.040). No significant difference was observed in the rate of reoperations and readmissions between HP, AR and APR, and type of surgical procedure was not a risk factor for 30-day mortality. Findings from a subgroup analysis of patients with a tumour 5-7 cm from the anal verge revealed that HP was not associated with increased risk for complications or 30-day mortality. For patients where AR is not appropriate HP is a valid alternative with a favourable outcome. APR was associated with the highest overall 30-day complication rate.

Short‑ and long‑term outcomes after laparoscopic and open pancreatoduodenectomy for elderly patients: a propensity score‑matched study

BackgroundThe feasibility and safety of laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (LPD) in elderly patients is still controversial. This study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of LPD and open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD) in elderly patients.MethodsClinical and follow-up data of elderly patients (≥ 65 years) who underwent LPD or OPD between 2015 and 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. A 1:1 propensity score-matching (PSM) analysis was performed to minimize differences between groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to select independent prognostic factors for 90-day mortality.ResultsOf the 410 elderly patients, 236 underwent LPD and 174 OPD. After PSM, the LPD group had a less estimated blood loss (EBL) (100 vs. 200 mL, P < 0.001), lower rates of intraoperative transfusion (10.4% vs. 19.0%, P = 0.029), more lymph node harvest (11.0 vs. 10.0, P = 0.014) and shorter postoperative length of stay (LOS) (13.0 vs. 16.0 days, P = 0.013). There were no significant differences in serious complications, reoperation, 90-day readmission and mortality rates (all P > 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) was an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality. Elderly patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) who underwent LPD or OPD had similar overall survival (OS) (22.5 vs.20.4 months, P = 0.672) after PSM.ConclusionsIt is safe and feasible for elderly patients to undergo LPD with less EBL and a shorter postoperative LOS. There was no statistically significant difference in long-term survival outcomes between elderly PDAC patients who underwent LPD or OPD.

Fitwalking: A New Frontier for Kidney Patients. A Center' s Experience.

Physical inactivity is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is an important modifiable risk factor for mortality, morbidity, and reduced quality of life. The present single-centre pilot study evaluated the possibility of performing structured physical exercise using a specific walking model, Fitwalking, in a population of patients with CKD and, according to the American College of Rheumatology guidelines, also in a population with immuno-rheumatological disease. Patients were recruited from the nephrology, haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, transplantation, and immuno-rheumatology outpatient clinics. After general and functional clinical evaluation and exercise prescription at the Department of Sports Medicine, we performed scientifically proven tests on CKD (Six-minute walk test and Sit to stand test), before and after the Fitwalking technique training course, and again after 6 and 12 months, to evaluate its effectiveness and identify any critical issues. We enrolled 80 patients, (41 males, 51.2%), mean age 53±12 years; the clinical data showed statistically significant improvements in systolic, average, and differential blood pressure, average speed, and physical strength. Participants also adapted to muscle fatigue, experienced a reduction in BMI with stable lean mass and reduced fat mass, and reported improved perceptions of physical and mental health, and quality of life. All enrolled patients successfully completed the process. A specific prescription was used that provided health education and allowed for the implementation of structured physical activity that could be performed safely and independently even after the training period. The activity was sustainable thanks to the training of in-house medical and nursing staff, demonstrating that it is possible to overcome this type of barrier to physical activity in CKD and in immuno-rheumatological patients.

Permanent and Persistent Atrial Fibrillations Are Independent Risk Factors of Mortality after Severe COVID-19

Permanent and Persistent Atrial Fibrillations Are Independent Risk Factors of Mortality after Severe COVID-19

Trends in prior antithrombotic medication and risk of in-hospital mortality after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: the J-ICH registry

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) remains a devastating form of stroke. Prior use of antiplatelets or warfarin before SICH is associated with poor outcomes, but the effects of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) remain unclear. This study aimed to clarify trends in prior antithrombotic use and to assess the associations between prior use of antithrombotics and in-hospital mortality using a multicenter prospective registry in Japan. In total, 1085 patients were analyzed. Prior antithrombotic medication included antiplatelets in 14.2%, oral anticoagulants in 8.1%, and both in 1.8%. Prior warfarin use was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 5.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30–23.26, P < 0.05) compared to no prior antithrombotic use. No such association was evident between prior DOAC use and no prior antithrombotic use (OR 1.34, 95% CI 0.44–4.05, P = 0.606). Concomitant use of antiplatelets and warfarin further increased the in-hospital mortality rate (37.5%) compared to warfarin alone (17.2%), but no such association was found for antiplatelets plus DOACs (8.3%) compared to DOACs alone (11.9%). Prior use of warfarin remains an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality after SICH in the era of DOACs. Further strategies are warranted to reduce SICH among patients receiving oral anticoagulants and to prevent serious outcomes.

Self-rated health, epigenetic ageing, and long-term mortality in older Australians.

Self-rated health (SRH) is a subjective indicator of overall health based on a single questionnaire item. Previous evidence found that it is a strong predictor of mortality, although the underlying mechanism is poorly understood. Epigenetic age is an objective, emerging biomarker of health, estimated using DNA methylation data at hundreds of sites across the genome. This study aimed to assess the overlap and interaction between SRH and epigenetic ageing in predicting mortality risk. We used DNA methylation data from 1059 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (mean age: 69years) to calculate three age-adjusted measures of epigenetic ageing: GrimAge, PhenoAge, and DunedinPACE. SRH was assessed using a five-category questionnaire item ("excellent, very good, good, fair, poor"). Cox models were used to assess the associations of SRH, epigenetic ageing, and their interaction, with all-cause mortality over up to 17years of follow-up (Ndeaths = 345). The association of SRH with mortality per category increase was HR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.14-1.46. The association was slightly attenuated after adjusting for all three epigenetic ageing measures (HR = 1.25, 95%CI: 1.10-1.41). A strong gradient was observed in the association of GrimAge (Pinteraction = 0.006) and DunedinPACE (Pinteraction = 0.002) with mortality across worsening SRH strata. For example, the association between DunedinPACE and mortality in participants with "excellent" SRH was HR = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.73-1.43 and for "fair/poor" HR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.35-2.20. SRH and epigenetic ageing were synergistic risk factors of mortality in our study. These findings suggest that consideration of subjective and objective factors may improve general health assessment, which has implications for the ongoing development of molecular markers of ageing.

Associations of cognitive impairment and functional limitation with all-cause mortality risk in older adults: A population-based study from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Cognitive impairment and functional limitation are commonly observed in older adults. They have a complex correlation, and both are risk factors for mortality. This prospective cohort study aimed to explore the independent and joint impact of cognitive impairment and functional limitations on all-cause mortality in older adults. A total of 3,759 participants aged ≥ 60 years who had available information on mortality data, cognitive function, physical function, and covariates were enrolled. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to assess the independent and joint impacts of cognitive impairment and functional limitation on all-cause mortality. Smoothing curve fitting was used to show the nonlinear relationship between the Digit Symbol Coding (DSC) score and all-cause mortality. An interaction between cognitive impairment and functional limitation was identified when examining their associations with all-cause mortality. Cognitive impairment and functional limitation independently correlated with all-cause mortality risk even after adjusting for covariates and performing mutual adjustments (HR for cognitive impairment: 1.34, 95% CI 1.15–1.56; HR for functional limitation: 1.50, 95% CI 1.32–1.70). When the DSC score was > 18, as the score increased, the risk of death significantly decreased (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98–0.99). Participants with both cognitive impairment and functional limitation had the highest hazard ratio for all-cause mortality (HR 1.98, 95%CI 1.63–2.40). In summary, cognitive impairment and functional limitation independently correlated with increased all-cause mortality risk. A higher DSC score was a protective factor reducing the premature mortality risk. Older adults with cognitive impairment and functional limitation demonstrated the highest all-cause mortality risk.

Healthy Japanese dietary pattern is associated with slower biological aging in older men: WASEDA’S health study

Aging is the greatest risk factor for numerous diseases and mortality, and establishing geroprotective interventions targeting aging is required. Previous studies have suggested that healthy dietary patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet, are associated with delayed biological aging; however, these associations depend on nationality and sex. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between dietary patterns identified through principal component analysis and biological aging in older men of Japan, one of the countries with the longest life expectancies. Principal component analysis identified two dietary patterns: a healthy Japanese dietary pattern and a Western-style dietary pattern. Eight epigenetic clocks, some of the most accurate aging biomarkers, were identified using DNA methylation data from whole-blood samples. Correlation analyses revealed that healthy Japanese dietary patterns were significantly negatively or positively correlated with multiple epigenetic age accelerations (AgeAccel), including AgeAccelGrim, FitAgeAccel, and age-adjusted DNAm-based telomere length (DNAmTLAdjAge). Conversely, the Western-style dietary pattern was observed not to correlate significantly with any of the examined AgeAccels or age-adjusted values. After adjusting for covariates, the healthy Japanese dietary pattern remained significantly positively correlated with DNAmTLAdjAge. Regression analysis showed that healthy Japanese dietary pattern contributed less to epigenetic age acceleration than smoking status. These findings suggest that a Western-style dietary pattern may not be associated with biological aging, whereas a healthy Japanese dietary pattern is associated with delayed biological aging in older Japanese men. Our findings provide evidence that healthy dietary patterns may have mild beneficial effects on delayed biological aging in older Japanese men.

COVID-19 mortality prediction in Hungarian ICU settings implementing random forest algorithm

The emergence of newer SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) profoundly changed the ICU demography; this shift in the virus’s genotype and its correlation to lethality in the ICUs is still not fully investigated. We aimed to survey ICU patients’ clinical and laboratory parameters in correlation with SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes to lethality. 503 COVID-19 ICU patients were included in our study beginning in January 2021 through November 2022 in Hungary. Furthermore, we implemented random forest (RF) as a potential predictor regarding SARS-CoV-2 lethality among 649 ICU patients in two ICU centers. Survival analysis and comparison of hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), and vaccination effects were conducted. Logistic regression identified DM as a significant mortality risk factor (OR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.06–2.29, p = 0.025), while HT showed marginal significance. Additionally, vaccination demonstrated protection against mortality (p = 0.028). RF detected lethality with 81.42% accuracy (95% CI 73.01–88.11%, [AUC]: 91.6%), key predictors being PaO2/FiO2 ratio, lymphocyte count, and chest Computed Tomography Severity Score (CTSS). Although a smaller number of patients require ICU treatment among Omicron cases, the likelihood of survival has not proportionately increased for those who are admitted to the ICU. In conclusion, our RF model supports more effective clinical decision-making among ICU COVID-19 patients.

#3094 Prevalence and risk factors for progression and mortality in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing health concern worldwide. Prevalence and risk factors for its progression are highly relevant, given that Portugal has the highest incidence and prevalence rates of dialysis in Europe. With this study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of patients with CKD stage 4 and 5 in a tertiary center in Portugal, as well as to evaluate risk factors for progression and mortality. Method We evaluated all patients followed in the Nephrology outpatient clinic at a tertiary center in Portugal during the year 2021, and selected those with CKD stage 4 and stage 5, based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using CKD-EPI formula. Primary endpoints were CKD progression or mortality after 1 year of follow-up. Progression was defined as initiating renal replacement therapy (RRT) or transition from stage 4 to stage 5 CKD. Results We evaluated 4381 patients, of which 1083 (24.7%) were included with CKD stage 4 (n = 856) and CKD stage 5 (n = 227). There was a predominance of males (52.7%), with a mean age of 74.6 ± 12.5 years. We observed a high prevalence of hypertension (94%), diabetes mellitus (46.2%), dyslipidemia (81%), heart failure (34%) and past history of major cardiovascular events (21%). At one year follow-up 108 patients died, 116 lost follow-up, and 256 (26.5%) had CKD progression, of which 179 (18.5%) initiated renal replacement therapy. 33.5% of patients initiating dialysis had a definitive access, mostly in stage 5 CKD (40 vs. 25%, p &amp;lt; 0.05). Risk factors for progression (versus stability) in univariate analysis were male gender (64.5 vs. 50.1, p &amp;lt; 0.001), younger age (68 vs. 75 years, p &amp;lt; 0.001) and lower eGFR (16 vs. 22 mL/min). Progression occurred in 51% of stage 5 CKD vs. 26.5% stage 4. Worse laboratory control of anemia, hyperparathyroidism, acidosis, and albuminuria (urinary albumin/creatinine ratio 1242 vs. 302 mg/g, p &amp;lt; 0.01) were identified risk factors for progression. In multivariate analysis, predictors for CKD progression were younger age (OR: 0.97, CI: 0.95-0.99, p = 0.02), male gender (OR: 2.82, CI: 1.43-5.57, p = 0.003), lower eGFR (OR: 0.80, CI: 0.74-0.86, p &amp;lt; 0.001), lower hemoglobin levels (OR: 0.62, CI: 0.48-0.79, p &amp;lt; 0.001), and proteinuria (OR: 1.44, CI: 1.22-1.53, p 0.003). Regarding mortality, no statically significant differences were observed between CKD stage 4 and 5, and in multivariate analysis the only independent risk factors for death were older age and heart failure, which increased 3.4 times mortality risk (OR: 3.40, CI: 1.48-7.83, p = 0.04). Conclusion Our data show a high prevalence of CKD and traditional risk factors, with an annual progression rate of 26.5%. Anemia and proteinuria were identified as modifiable risk factors for progression. In older patients with heart failure, the mortality risk was found to be higher than progression risk, highlighting the importance of cardiovascular protection and consideration of conservative management in this particular subset of patients.

#553 Renal tubular damage is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a community-based population: the Takahata Study

Abstract Background and Aims Renal tubulointerstitial damage is a risk for renal failure. However, the association between renal tubulointerstitial damage and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population remains unclear. In this prospective cohort study, we examined this point using urinary β2-microglobulin/creatinine ratio (UBCR) as a marker of renal tubulointerstitial damage in the general Japanese population. Methods We examined the association between UBCR values at entry and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality during the follow-up period (median 9.2 years) in 3 427 residents (mean age 62.5 years, 45.1% male, mean eGFR 81.6 ml/min/1.73 m², ≥1+ protein 4.4%) of Takahata Town in Japan. Results Study participants were divided into two groups (low &amp;lt; 300 μg/gCre, high ≥300 μg/gCre) based on UBCR at entry. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher incidence of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the high UBCR group (Log-rank P &amp;lt; 0.01). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusted for age, sex, eGFR, urinary protein level, comorbidities, smoking status, and other background factors showed a hazard ratio of 1.47 (95% CI 1.09-2.00, P = 0.01) for all-cause mortality and a hazard ratio of 1.82 (95% CI 1.06-3.12, P = 0.03) for cardiovascular death in the high-UBCR group. The addition of high UBCR to conventional risk factors, including eGFR and urinary protein level, significantly improved the net reclassification improvement (NRI) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (P &amp;lt; 0.01). Conclusions UBCR, a marker of tubulointerstitial damage, was identified as a risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population independent of eGFR and urinary protein levels.