Risk Factors For Early Death Research Articles

Analysis of early and treatment related deaths among children and adolescents with acute myeloid leukemia in Poland: 2005–2023

BackgroundA personalised approach to the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in children and adolescents, as well as the development of supportive therapies, has significantly improved survival. Despite this, some patients still die before starting treatment or in an early phase of therapy before achieving remission. The study analysed the frequency, clinical features and risk factors for early deaths (ED) and treatment related deaths (TRD) of children and adolescents with AML.MethodsFrom January 2005 to November 2023, 646 children with AML treated in the centers of the Polish Pediatric Leukemia and Lymphoma Study Group according to three subsequent therapeutic protocols were evaluated: AML-BFM 2004 Interim (385 children), AML-BFM 2012 Registry (131 children) and AML-BFM 2019 (130 children).ResultsOut of 646 children, early death occurred in 30 children, including 15 girls. The median age was 10.7 years (1 day to 18 years). More than half of the patients (53%) were diagnosed with acute myelomonocytic leukemia (M5) and 13% with acute promyelocytic leukemia (M3). The ED rate for the three consecutive AML-BFM protocols was 4.9% vs. 5.3% vs. 3.1%, respectively. In 19 patients, death occurred before the 15th day of treatment, in 11 between the 15th and 42nd day. The most common cause of death before the 15th day (ED15) was leukostasis and bleeding, whereas between the 15th and 42nd day (ED15-42), infections, mainly bacterial sepsis. A significant association was found between ED15 and high leukocyte count (>10 × 109/L), M3 leukemia (p < 0.001), and ED15-42 and age <1 year (p = 0.029). In the univariate analysis only initial high leukocyte count >100 × 109/L, was a significant predictor of early death. The overall TRD for the entire study period was 3.4%. The main cause of death were infections, mainly bacterial sepsis (10 children out of 22, 45.4%).ConclusionsHyperleukocytosis remains significant factor of early mortality in patients with AML, despite the introduction of various cytoreductive methods. Infections are still the main cause of treatment related deaths. A more individualized approach by using new targeted drugs may be the therapeutic option of choice in the future.

Risk factors of early death in heat stroke and the challenges of emergency care in Hungary - a case series study

Background and aimThe increasing frequency of heat waves worldwide is a major challenge for emergency care providers worldwide. The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical features, treatment options, and early outcomes of heat stroke patients presenting to a large academic emergency department (ED) in Hungary and to provide guidance in management for other emergency professionals.MethodsPatients presenting to the ED between June 1, 2024, and July 31, 2024, with a body temperature above 40 °C were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. Data collection included demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters. Predictors of mortality were analyzed with Mann-Whitney U test.ResultsEight patients were included in our analysis. Three patients died in the ED (37.5%). Patients who died had significantly lower pH (7.07 vs. 7.4, p = 0.036), higher potassium (7.3 vs. 3.2 mmol/L, p = 0.036), higher calcium (1.19 vs. 0.97 mmol/L, p = 0.036), higher lactate (10.9 vs. 3.5 mmol/L, p = 0.036) and higher PaCO2 (57.2 vs. 28 mmHg, p = 0.036) at admission compared to those who did not die.ConclusionsThe risk of heat stroke due to climate change-induced heat stress and the consequent thermoregulatory disruption may now be significant in temperate climate zones where it was not previously present. Standardization of differential diagnostic and therapeutic procedures could reduce mortality. pH, potassium, lactate and calcium levels may play an important role in predicting the outcome of heat stroke.

Risk factors and nomograms for diagnosis and early death in patients with combined small cell lung cancer with distant metastasis: a population-based study.

Combined small cell lung cancer (CSCLC) with distant metastasis (DM) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis. Effective nomograms are needed to predict DM and early death in patients with CSCLC and DM. This retrospective study included patients with CSCLC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2015. Risk factors for DM and early death were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were constructed based on the results in a training cohort and confirmed in a validation cohort, and their performances were assessed by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 788 patients with CSCLC were selected, including 364 patients with metastatic CSCLC. Sex, tumor site, T stage, and N stage were independent risk factors for DM, while age, surgery, chemotherapy, and liver metastasis were independent risk factors for early death. C-index, ROC, calibration, and DCA curve analyses all showed good predictive performances for both nomograms. These nomograms could reliably predict DM risk in CSCLC patients and early death in CSCLC patients with DM, and may thus help clinicians to assess these risks and implement individualized therapies.

Analysis of early death in critically ill patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia in the HICU

This study was conducted to identify the characteristics and risk factors for early death in critically ill acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL) patients in the Hemato-oncology ICU (HICU). A total of 44 APL patients from 2017 to 2023 were included. The mortality among APL patients in the HICU was high (27/44, 61.36%). Compared with patients who survived, nonsurvivors had a longer prothrombin time (P = 0.002), lower fibrinogen (P = 0.022), higher white blood cell count (P = 0.004) and higher creatinine (P = 0.037) on hosipital admission. Severe bleeding was the most frequent complication (34 cases, 77.27%), which occurred either preinduction or on Day 5 (IQR 3–7.5 days) of induction. Cerebral bleeding associated with consciousness disturbance was the main reason for HICU admission (18 cases, 40.9%). The leading cause of death was fatal haemorrhage (18/34, 52.94%), which occurred either preinduction or on Day 4 (IQR 3–7 days) of induction. Another common cause of death was sepsis (8/18, 44.44%), which occurred on Day 12 (IQR 9.5–24.75 days) during induction. In conclusion, the main cause of death in APL patients treated in the HICU was primary being attributed to fatal bleeding, followed by sepsis.

Clinical characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death in newly diagnosed patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death in newly diagnosed patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL).MethodsThis retrospective study included patients who visited our hospital between January 2010 and August 2022 and were diagnosed with APL for the first time. We analyzed their clinical and laboratory characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death.ResultsA total of 269 patients with a primary diagnosis of APL were collected. The male to female ratio was 6:5, and the median age was 42 years (range 7–80). Among patients with initial APL diagnosis, there were 34 early deaths, resulting in an early mortality rate of 13%. The median time from diagnosis to death was 8.5 days (range 3–24). Comparative analysis of the clinical characteristics between patients who died early and those who did not, using a logistic regression model, revealed that age, white blood cell count (WBC) at initial diagnosis, and prolongation time of prothrombin time (PT) were independent risk factors for early death in patients with primary APL (P < 0.05). Comparing the clinical characteristics during hospitalization between the early death group and the non-early death group, it was observed that the daily mean of WBC during hospitalization was significantly higher in patients who died early than in those who did not (P < 0.001). Conversely, the daily mean of platelet count (PLT) was significantly lower in patients who died early compared to those who did not (P < 0.001). Furthermore, statistically significant differences were found in the mean daily infusion of PLT (P < 0.05), fibrinogen (Fib) (P < 0.05), and fresh frozen plasma (FFP) (P < 0.05) during hospitalization between patients who died early and those who did not. Specifically, the mean daily infusion of PLT and FFP was significantly higher in the early-death group than in the non-early-death group. Cerebral hemorrhage was identified as the immediate cause of death in 25 out of the 34 early-death patients (74%). The remaining causes of death included infection in 5 cases (15%), all of which were severe pulmonary infections, including 2 cases of combined differentiation syndrome, and abandonment of treatment in 4 patients (11%) at initial diagnosis.ConclusionIn patients with primary APL, age, WBC at initial diagnosis, and PT prolongation time were identified as independent risk factors for early death (P < 0.05). Laboratory findings regarding WBC and PLT during hospitalization, as well as the infusion of PLT, Fib, and FFP during hospitalization, were also statistically significant. Cerebral hemorrhage was found to be the main cause of early death in patients with primary APL.

A practical nomogram for predicting early death in elderly small cell lung cancer patients: A SEER-based study.

This study aimed to identify risk factors for early death in elderly small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients and develop nomogram prediction models for all-cause and cancer-specific early death to improve patient management. Data of elderly patients diagnosed with SCLC were extracted from the SEER database, then randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Univariate and stepwise multivariable Logistic regression analyses were performed on the training cohort to identify independent risk factors for early death in these patients. Nomograms were developed based on these factors to predict the overall risk of early death. The efficacy of the nomograms was validated using various methods, including ROC analysis, calibration curves, DCA, NRI, and IDI. Among 2077 elderly SCLC patients, 773 died within 3 months, 713 due to cancer-specific causes. Older age, higher AJCC staging, brain metastases, and lack of surgery, chemotherapy, or radiotherapy increase the risk of all-cause early death, while higher AJCC staging, brain metastases, lung metastases, and lack of surgery, chemotherapy, or radiotherapy increase the risk of cancer-specific death (P < .05). These identified factors were used to construct 2 nomograms to predict the risk of early death. The ROC indicated that the nomograms performed well in predicting both all-cause early death (AUC = 0.823 in the training cohort and AUC = 0.843 in the validation cohort) and cancer-specific early death (AUC = 0.814 in the training cohort and AUC = 0.841 in the validation cohort). The results of calibration curves, DCAs, NRI and IDI also showed that the 2 sets of nomograms had good predictive power and clinical utility and were superior to the commonly used TNM staging system. The nomogram prediction models constructed in this study can effectively assist clinicians in predicting the risk of early death in elderly SCLC patients, and can also help physicians screen patients at higher risk and develop personalized treatment plans for them.

Six-month mortality has decreased for patients with curative treatment intent for head and neck cancer in Sweden.

In general, survival outcomes for patients with Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) has improved over recent decades. However, mortality within six months after diagnosis for curative patients remains at approximately 5%. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for early death among patients with curative treatment, and furthermore, to analyze whether the risk of early death changed over recent years. This real-world, population-based, nationwide study from the Swedish Head and Neck Cancer Register (SweHNCR) included all patients ≥18 years diagnosed with HNC with a curative treatment intent at the multidisciplinary tumor board from 2008 to 2020. A total of 16,786 patients were included. During the study period a total of 618 (3.7%) patients with curative-intended treatment died within six months of diagnosis. Patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2012 had a six-month mortality rate of 4.7% compared to 2.5% for patients diagnosed between 2017 and 2020, indicating a risk reduction of 53% (p <0.001) for death within six months. The mean time to radiation therapy from diagnosis in the 2008-2012 cohort was 38 days, compared to 22 days for the 2017-2020 cohort, (p <0.001). The mean time to surgery from diagnosis was 22 days in 2008-2012, compared to 15 days for the 2017-2020 cohort, (p <0.001). Females had a 20% lower risk of dying within six months compared to males (p = 0.013). For every year older the patient was at diagnosis, a 4.8% (p <0.001) higher risk of dying within six months was observed. Patients with a WHO score of 1 had approximately 2.4-times greater risk of early death compared to WHO 0 patients (p <0.001). The risk of early death among WHO 4 patients was almost 28 times higher than for WHO 0 patients (p <0.001). Patients with a hypopharyngeal tumor site had a 2.5-fold higher risk of dying within six months from diagnosis compared to oropharyngeal tumor patients (p <0.001). We found that the risk of early death decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020. During this period, the mean time to the start of treatment was significantly reduced both for surgery and oncological treatment regimes. Among patients with a curative treatment intention, increased risk of early death was associated with male sex, older age, advanced disease, increased WHO score, and a hypopharyngeal tumor site.

Systemic inflammation score as a predictor of death within one year after esophagectomy.

After radical resection for esophageal cancer, death within 1year of surgery can occur due both to recurrence and to other diseases, even after postoperative complications have been overcome. This study identified risk factors for early death within 1year of esophagectomy for reasons other than death in hospital in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer. We reviewed 366 patients who underwent esophagectomy without adjuvant treatment between January 2009 and July 2022 for thoracic esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer. Patients who died within 1year excluding in-hospital death were compared with those who did not. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of death within 1year after surgery. Death within 1year occurred in 32 of 366 patients, 24 from primary disease and 8 from other diseases. Deaths within 1year were significantly older than the other cases, had significantly lower % vital capacity (%VC), and occurred significantly more often in cases in advanced stages of disease. In a multivariable analysis, a systemic inflammation score (SIS) based on serum albumin level and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio was identified as an independent predictor of death within 1year. As SIS increased, %VC decreased significantly, and CRP level and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio increased significantly. There was no relationship between SIS and pN. Death within 1year increased as SIS increased (p = 0.001 for trend). SIS assessment undertaken before beginning esophageal cancer treatment is a useful predictor of death within 1year of surgery.

Development of a prognostic risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients.

Information of short-term prognosis after hemodialysis (HD) introduction is important for elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and their families choosing a modality of renal replacement therapy. Therefore, we developed a risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients. We analyzed data of incident elderly HD patients from a nationwide cohort study of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry (JRDR) to develop a prognostic risk score. Candidate risk factors for early death within 1 year was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was developed by summing up points derived from parameter estimate values of independent risk factors. The association between risk score and early death was tested using Cox proportional hazards models. This risk score was validated twice by using an internal validation cohort derived from the JRDR and an external validation cohort collected for this study. Using the development cohort (n = 2,000), nine risk factors were retained in the risk score: older age (>85), yes = 2, no = 0; sex, male = 2, female = 0; lower body mass index (<20), yes = 2, no = 0; cancer, yes = 1, no = 0; dementia, yes = 3, no = 0; lower creatinine (<6.5 mg/dL), yes = 1, no = 0; lower albumin (<3.0 g/dL), yes = 3, no = 0; normal or high calcium (≥8.5 mg/dL), yes = 1, no = 0; and higher C reactive protein (>2.0 mg/dL), yes = 2, no = 0. In the internal and external validation cohorts (n = 739, 140, respectively), the medium- and high-risk groups (total score, 6 to 10 and 11 or more, respectively) showed significantly higher risk of early death than the low-risk group (total score, 0 to 5) (p<0.001). We developed a prognostic risk score predicting early death within 1 year in incident elderly Japanese HD patients, which may help detect elderly patients with a high-risk of early death after HD introduction.

Construction and Validation of Prediction Models of Risk Factors for Early Death in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma

To construct nomogram models to predict the risk factors for early death in patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). The study covered 2138 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database and all these patients were diagnosed with MM between 2010 and 2015. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors affecting early death in MM patients. These risk factors were then used to construct nomograms of all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. The efficacy of the model was assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In addition, external validation of the model was performed with clinicopathologic data of 105 patients diagnosed with MM at Sichuan Cancer Hospital between January 2015 and January 2020. According to the results of logistic regression, marital status, the primary site, N staging, surgery, chemotherapy, bone metastases, liver metastases, lung metastases, and brain metastases could be defined as independent predictive factors for early death. Based on these factors, 2 nomograms were plotted to predict the risks of all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death, respectively. For the models for all-cause and cancer-specific early death, the areas under the curve (AUCs) for the training group were 0.751 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.726-0.776) and 0.740 (95% CI: 0.714-0.765), respectively. The AUCs for the internal validation group were 0.759 (95% CI: 0.722-0.797) and 0.757 (95% CI: 0.718-0.780), respectively, while the AUCs for the external validation group were 0.750 (95% CI: 0.649-0.850) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.644-0.838), respectively. The calibration curves showed high agreement between the predicted and the observed probabilities. DCA analysis indicated high clinical application value of the models. The nomogram models demonstrated good performance in predicting early death in MM patients and can be used to help clinical oncologists develop more individualized treatment strategies.

Causes and risk factors for early death in adult patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia: a real-life experience

IntroductionEarly Death (ED) remains challenging in newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), especially in developing countries. The clinical and laboratory profile at diagnosis were evaluated and causes and risk factors were investigated in adult APL patients. MethodA retrospective real-life analysis of 141 medical records was performed of patients diagnosed with APL between 2007 and 2018, whether they were treated with the IC-APL 2006 protocol or not. Risk factors were assessed by univariate and multivariate analysis. Main resultsOverall, 112 patients were included in the study. ED occurred in 22.3% of cases, surpassing clinical trial reports, with non-protocol-eligible patients presenting notably higher rates (60%), potentially due to their clinical status. Hemorrhage (60%) and infection (33.3%) were the leading causes of ED. Univariate analysis associated ED to the ECOG score; white blood cell (WBC) count; body mass index; levels of hemoglobin, albumin, uric acid, and creatinine, aPTT and INR and FLT3 mutations. Multivariate analysis identified ECOG score ≥2 and elevated WBC count as independent risk factors. ConclusionED remains a substantial challenge in APL, especially in real-world settings with hemorrhage and infection being the leading causes. ECOG status and WBC count emerged as independent risk factors, while age and platelet count lacked a 30-day prognostic correlation. Evaluating prognostic enhancement tools in controlled trials and real-life settings is pivotal to improving APL outcomes.

Predictive Clinical Factors of In-Hospital Mortality in Women Aged 85 Years or More with Acute Ischemic Stroke

Plain Language SummaryAcute cerebrovascular disease also called stroke or brain attack is a very relevant medical condition because it may have devastating consequences in terms of disability, impaired cognition, need of prolonged rehabilitation and death. Acute stroke at older age has a great impact on the ability to live independently, and the number of elderly people affected by stroke is expected to increase due to demographic projections and the aging population in industrialized countries. There are important sex-related differences with regard to the characteristics of stroke, but there are a few studies focused on women in the oldest old age segment group. This study examined clinical risk factors for early death in a large cohort of 506 women aged 85 years or more suffering from an acute ischemic stroke, the data of which were collected from an ongoing 24-year hospital stroke database. The mean age of the patients was 88.6 years. Mortality during the patients’ stay in the hospital was high. A total of 103 patients died, with a mortality rate of 20.4%. Some variables were significant predictors of mortality, including sudden onset of symptoms, altered consciousness, and the development of neurological, cardiac, respiratory, and hemorrhagic complications during hospitalization. Lacunar infarction, which is a subtype of stroke causing small-sized infarcts, was associated with a favorable prognosis. Better knowledge of the clinical features of ischemic stroke in very old women is indispensable to establish an early diagnosis and prompt effective therapy to improve the prognosis and neurological recovery of these patients.

The novel predictive nomograms for early death in metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A large cohort study.

Metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive disease which usually have a poor prognosis. Early mortality and risk factors in patients with metastatic HCC are poorly understood. Our study sought to identify associated risk factors and develop the nomograms for predicting early death in metastatic HCC patients. The patients diagnosed with metastatic HCC were chosen from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database between 2010 and 2015. To identify significant independent risk factors for early death, both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. We constructed a pragmatic nomogram and then evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. The prediction model included 2587 patients with metastatic HCC. Among them, 1550 experienced early death (died within 3 months of initial diagnosis) and 1437 died from cancer-specific causes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that grade, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, alpha-fetoprotein levels, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for both all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. In addition, bone metastasis were independent risk factors for all-cause early death, T-stage and brain metastasis were also independent risk factors for cancer-specific early death. Then we used the relevant risk factors to developed the practical nomograms of all-cause and cancer-specific early deaths. The nomograms demonstrated good predictive power and clinical utility under receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis. We developed 2 novel comprehensive nomograms to predict early death among metastatic HCC patients. Nomograms may help oncologists develop better treatment strategies and implementation of individualized treatment plans.

Risk factors for early death in severe non-brain-injured trauma patients.

Risk factors for early death in severe non-brain-injured trauma patients.

Risk factors and predictive models for early death in patients with advanced melanoma: A population-based study.

The prognosis for advanced melanoma (AM) is extremely poor. Some patients are already in an advanced stage at the time of their first diagnosis and face a significant risk of early death. This study predicted all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death in patients with AM by identifying independent risk factors, building 2 separate nomogram models, and validating the efficiency of the models. A total of 2138 patients diagnosed with AM from 2010 to 2015 were registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort. Logistic regression models were used to identify the associated independent risk factors. These factors have also been used to build nomograms for early deaths. Next, we validated the model's predictive power by examining subject operating characteristic curves, then applied calibration curves to assess the accuracy of the models, and finally, tested the net benefit of interventions based on decision curve analysis. The results of the logistic regression model showed that marital status, primary site, histological type, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, bone, liver, lung and brain metastases were significant independent risk factors for early death. These identified factors contributed to the creation of 2 nomograms, which predict the risk of all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death in patients with AM. In the all-cause early death model, the area under the curve was 0.751 and 0.759 for the training and validation groups, respectively, whereas in the cancer-specific early death model, the area under the curve was 0.740 and 0.757 for the training and validation groups. Calibration curves indicated a high degree of agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities, and the decision curve analysis demonstrated a high value for the model in terms of its applicability in clinical settings. These nomograms have practical applications in predicting the risk of early death in patients with AM, helping oncologists to intervene early and develop more personalized treatment strategies.

Effects of Cytokines on Early Death in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia

To explore the effect of cytokine levels on early death and coagulation function of patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). Routine examination was performed on 69 newly diagnosed APL patients at admission. Meanwhile, 4 ml fasting venous blood was extracted from the patients. And then the supernatant was taken after centrifugation. The concentrations of cytokines, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and ferritin were detected by using the corresponding kits. It was confirmed that cerebral hemorrhage was a major cause of early death in APL patients. Elevated LDH, decreased platelets (PLT) count and prolonged prothrombin time (PT) were high risk factors for early death (P <0.05). The increases of IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12p70 and IL-17A were closely related to the early death of newly diagnosed APL patients, and the increases of IL-5 and IL-17A also induced coagulation disorder in APL patients by prolonging PT (P <0.05). In newly diagnosed APL patients, ferritin and LDH showed a positive effect on the expression of IL-5, IL-10 and IL-17A, especially ferritin had a highly positive correlation with IL-5 (r =0.867) and IL-17A (r =0.841). Moreover, there was a certain correlation between these five high-risk cytokines, among which IL-5 and IL-17A (r =0.827), IL-6 and IL-10 (r =0.823) were highly positively correlated. Elevated cytokine levels in newly diagnosed APL patients increase the risk of early bleeding and death. In addition to the interaction between cytokines themselves, ferritin and LDH positively affect the expression of cytokines, thus affecting the prognosis of APL patients.

Early death from childhood cancer: First medical record-level analysis reveals insights on diagnostic timing and cause of death.

Approximately7.5% of pediatric cancer deaths occur in the first 30 days post diagnosis, termed early death (ED). Previous database-level analyses identified increased ED in Black/Hispanic patients, infants, late adolescents, those in poverty, and with specific diagnoses. Socioeconomic and clinical risk factors have never been assessed at the medical record level and are poorly understood. We completed a retrospective case-control study of oncology patients diagnosed from 1995 to 2016 at Children's Hospital Colorado. The ED group (n = 45) was compared to a non-early death (NED) group surviving >31 days, randomly selected from the same cohort (n = 44). Medical records and death certificates were manually reviewed for sociodemographic and clinical information to identify risk factors for ED. We identified increased ED risk in central nervous system (CNS) tumors and, specifically, high-grade glioma and atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor. There was prolonged time from symptom onset to seeking care in the ED group (29.4 vs. 9.8 days) with similar time courses to diagnosis thereafter. Cause of death was most commonly from tumor progression in brain/CNS tumors and infection in hematologic malignancies. In this first medical record-level analysis of ED, we identified socioeconomic and clinical risk factors. ED was associated with longer time from first symptoms to presentation, suggesting that delayed presentation may be an addressable risk factor. Many individual patient-level risk factors, including socioeconomic measures and barriers to care, were unable to be assessed through record review, highlighting the need for a prospective study to understand and address childhood cancer ED.

Early Death Among COVID-19 Patients: A Cross-sectional Analysis of the First 10,000 COVID-19 Deaths from the Indian State of Tamil Nadu

BackgroundTamil Nadu state reported the second highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India. In this study, we aimed to describe and determine the risk factors for early death among the first 10,000 COVID-19 deaths in the state.MethodsWe conducted a cross sectional analysis of state government administrative data to describe deaths, examine the differences between early deaths and non-early deaths, and calculate the risks of early death for several independent variables. All p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsIn total, 4147 early deaths (41.5%) were recorded; the median age of patients who suffered from early death was significantly lower [64 years; interquartile range (IQR): 55–72] when compared with patients who did not suffer from early death (65 years; IQR: 56–73). After adjusting for comorbidities, age, and the time elapsed from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization; we found that the risk of early death was significantly lower for males [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72, 0.93; p = 0.002], among rich individuals (aOR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.92; p = 0.004), in the richest districts (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.84; p < 0.001) and for those who received treatment in private facilities (aOR: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.51; p < 0.001.ConclusionsThe risk of early deaths among the first 10,000 reported COVID deaths in the Tamil Nadu state of India was higher in patients treated in government hospitals especially in the poorest districts probably indicating a lack of infrastructure in government facilities or the overburdening of government facilities at least in the early phase of the pandemic.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the early death of anaplastic thyroid cancer: a SEER population-based study.

Anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) is a highly aggressive malignancy with dismal prognosis. This study aimed to identify the independent risk factors and construct a readily-to-use nomogram to predict the probability of early death in ATC patients. Patients diagnosed with ATC between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled in this study for model development and internal validation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors for early death of ATC. Nomograms for predicting the probability of all-cause early death (ACED) and cancer-specific early death (CSED) of ATC were subsequently developed. The performance of the nomograms was comprehensively evaluated and validated in an internal cohort. A total of 696 ATC patients were included in this study, of which 488 patients in the training cohort and 208 patients in the validation cohort. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified five independent factors (tumor size, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy) in the ACED model and six variables in the CSED (gender, tumor size, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy) model for the establishment of the nomograms. Calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed satisfactory efficacy and consistency both in the training (ACED: AUC values: 0.814 (0.776-0.852); CSED: 0.778 (0.736-0.820)) and validation sets (ACED: 0.762 (0.696-0.827); CSED: 0.745 (0.678-0.812)). In addition, the decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated the favorable potential of the two nomograms in clinical application. The two nomograms assist clinicians to identify risk factors and predict the early death probability among ATC patients, thus guide individualized treatment to improve the prognosis.

Risk factors and prognosis of early death in secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.

The aim of our study was to summarize the clinical characteristics of early death patients with newly diagnosed secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH), analyze the risk factors of early death, and analyze the survival of patients. The clinical characteristics of 324 newly diagnosed sHLH patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College and Zhejiang Provincial Cancer Hospital from January 2014 to February 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. Analyze the independent risk factors of early death, compare the secondary diseases and treatment methods of patients with early death group and non early death group, and analyze the survival of all patients with sHLH. Among the 324 newly diagnosed patients with sHLH, 134 died early, with an early mortality rate of 41.4%. Comparing the clinical characteristics of patients with early death group and patients with non early death group, logistic regression model was used to conduct multifactor analysis. Age > 60years, Plt ≤ 20.0 × 109/L, APTT > 36.0s and LDH > 1000.0 U/L were independent risk factors for early death of newly diagnosed sHLH patients (P < 0.05). Comparing the secondary diseases and treatment methods between early death group and non early death group, the proportion of sHLH patients secondary to lymphoma was higher in early death group than that in non early death group (P < 0.05). The proportion of sHLH patients secondary to connective tissue disease and infection was lower in early death group than that in non early death group (P < 0.05), and the proportion of sHLH patients used hormone combined chemotherapy was lower in early death group than that in non early death group (P < 0.05). The median follow-up time of all patients was 12.0 (1-65) months. The 5-year OS rates of patients with age > 60years and age ≤ 60years were 25.8% and 49.6% respectively (P < 0.001); The 5-year OS rates of patients with Plt > 20.0 × 109/L and Plt ≤ 20.0 × 109/L were 52.5% and 25.5% respectively (P < 0.001); The 5-year OS rates of patients with APTT > 36.0s and APTT ≤ 36.0s were 34.5% and 57.4% respectively (P < 0.001); The 5-year OS rates of patients with LDH > 1000.0 U/L and LDH ≤ 1000.0 U/L were 23.3% and 56.3% respectively (P < 0.001). Age > 60years, Plt ≤ 20.0 × 109/L, APTT > 36.0s and LDH > 1000.0 U/L are independent risk factors for early death of sHLH patients. The early mortality of lymphoma associated HLH (LA-HLH) patients is high, and early use of hormone combined chemotherapy can reduce the early mortality.