Rising Sea Surface Temperatures Research Articles

A Study on the Pre-Survey and Plan for the Establishment of the Korean Typhoon Impact-Based Forecast

The intensity of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula has been rapidly increasing, resulting in significant damage. Notably, this intensification correlates with the rise in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the western Pacific Ocean and surrounding sea areas, where typhoons that impact the Korean Peninsula originate and develop. The SST in these regions is increasing at a faster rate than the global average. Typhoon-related meteorological disasters are not isolated events, such as strong winds, heavy rains, or storm surges, but rather multi-hazard occurrences that can affect different areas simultaneously. As a result, preparation and evaluation must address multi-hazard disasters, rather than focusing on individual weather phenomena. This study develops the Typhoon Ready System (TRS) to improve impact-based forecasting in Korea, in response to the growing threat of multi-hazard weather disasters. By providing region-specific pre-disaster information, the TRS enables local governments and individuals to better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of typhoons. The system will be continuously refined in collaboration with the U.S. Weather-Ready Nation (WRN), which possesses advanced impact forecasting capabilities. The findings of this study offer a crucial framework for enhancing Korea’s ability to forecast and respond to the escalating threats posed by typhoons. By utilizing the TRS, it will be possible to assess the risks of various multi-hazard weather disasters specific to each region during the typhoon forecast period, and the relevant data can be efficiently applied at both the individual and local government levels for typhoon prevention efforts. The system will be continuously improved through cooperation with the U.S. WRN, leveraging their advanced impact forecasting systems. It is expected that the TRS will enhance the accuracy of typhoon impact forecasts, which have been responsible for significant damage in Korea.

Thermal priming of Saccharina latissima: a promising strategy to improve seaweed production and restoration in future climates

Saccharina latissima is a brown algal kelp species of ecological and economic importance. As the rise in sea surface temperature will threaten not only wild populations of S. latissima but also the productivity of kelp farms, crop enhancement techniques will become crucial to mitigate this threat. Priming is a common strategy in crop plants, in which seeds are pre-exposed to moderate stress to improve the performance and tolerance of plants when exposed to harsher conditions. We investigated the potential of thermal priming to improve growth and tolerance of S. latissima. Kelp gametophytes primed at 20°C for 2, 4 and 6 wk and then re-transferred to 5°C were compared to a naïve treatment maintained at 5°C. Gametophyte priming increased growth of subsequently formed sporophytes by up to 30% (for 4 wk priming) compared to the naïve treatment. Female gametophyte growth in the priming environment was positively correlated to offspring sporophyte growth, indicating a maternal effect. Sporophytes were exposed to heat stress of 20°, 22°, 23° and 24°C for 2 wk. Sporophytes from 4 and 6 wk primed gametophytes exhibited 11 d longer tolerance at 22°C, 7 d longer tolerance at 23°C and 1°C higher thermal tolerance over 7 d compared to naïve sporophytes and sporophytes from 2 wk priming. A priming time of 4 wk was optimal for both sporophyte growth and thermal tolerance. Our results suggest that priming is a promising crop enhancement technique that could improve yield for seaweed farmers and restoration of kelp forests threatened by warming climates.

Increasing WNP tropical cyclone-related extreme precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer associated with PDO shift

Over the past two decades, there has been a significant shift in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the boreal summer. Our analysis of data spanning from 1979 to 2021 reveals significant shifts in the WNP TC characteristics and rainfall pattern variation. To deepen our understanding of TC-related precipitation dynamics, we expressly address the difference between TC-related core precipitation (TCP) and remote precipitation (TRP). The results show that TRP significantly impacts the East Asian (EA) continent, especially on the Korean Peninsula. Notably, TCP exhibits decadal variability, with a pronounced negative correlation identified between it and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) following a strong climate shift. This pivotal shift was marked by the PDO first transitioning to its negative phase in 1997, a notable change since 1979, resulting in a marked increase in TC-related extreme rainfall over the EA area. Concurrently, the rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the WNP have intensified the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) circulation. The easterly steering flow associated with the WPSH then strengthened, leading to the continental migration of TC trajectories, thereby intensifying TC-related extreme precipitation.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1–2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5–8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5–8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5–8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

The adaptive mechanisms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii to long-term high CO2 and warming.

While it is known that increased dissolved CO2 concentrations and rising sea surface temperature (ocean warming) can act interactively on marine phytoplankton, the ultimate molecular mechanisms underlying this interaction on a long-term evolutionary scale are relatively unexplored. Here, we performed transcriptomics and quantitative metabolomics analyses, along with a physiological trait analysis, on the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii adapted for approximately 3.5 years to warming and/or high CO2 conditions. We show that long-term warming has more pronounced impacts than elevated CO2 on gene expression, resulting in a greater number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The largest number of DEGs was observed in populations adapted to warming + high CO2, indicating a potential synergistic interaction between these factors. We further identified the metabolic pathways in which the DEGs function and the metabolites with significantly changed abundances. We found that ribosome biosynthesis-related pathways were upregulated to meet the increased material and energy demands after warming or warming in combination with high CO2. This resulted in the upregulation of energy metabolism pathways such as glycolysis, photorespiration, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway, as well as the associated metabolites. These metabolic changes help compensate for reduced photochemical efficiency and photosynthesis. Our study emphasizes that the upregulation of ribosome biosynthesis plays an essential role in facilitating the adaptation of phytoplankton to global ocean changes and elucidates the interactive effects of warming and high CO2 on the adaptation of marine phytoplankton in the context of global change.

Red Sea Coral Reef Monitoring Site in Sudan after 39 Years Reveals Stagnant Reef Growth, Continuity and Change

Coral reefs off the coast of the Republic of Sudan are still considered to be among the most pristine reefs in the central Red Sea. The complex coastal fringing reefs, offshore banks, and shoals of Dungonab Bay in the north and Sanganeb atoll situated further to the south, about 23 km off the Sudanese mainland coast, were inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 2016. Due to their remote location and limited access, monitoring of the status of the reefs has been sporadic. Here, we present the results of a repeated large area photomosaic survey (5 m × 5 m plots) on the Sanganeb atoll, first established and surveyed in 1980, and revisited in 1991 and most recently in 2019. The 2019 survey recovered and reinstated the four original monitoring plots. Evaluation of photographic and video records from one photomosaic plot on the seaward slope of the atoll revealed general continuity of the overall community structure and composition over 39 years. Individual colonies of Echinopora gemmacea and Lobophyllia erythraea were recorded in the exact same positions as in the 1980 and 1991 plots. The genera Acropora and Pocillopora remain dominant, although in altered proportions. Shifts in composition were detected at the species level (e.g., increase in Pocillopora verrucosa, Stylophora pistillata, Acropora hemprichii, Dipsastraea pallida, and Echinopora gemmacea, decrease in Acropora cytherea and A. superba), in addition to changes in the extent of uncolonized substrate (e.g., increase from 43.9% in 1980 to 52.2% in 2019), and other scleractinian, hydrozoan, and soft coral living cover. While the temporal resolution only includes three sampling events over 39 years (1980, 1991, 2019), this study presents one of the longest time series of benthic community surveys available for the entire Red Sea. A semi-quantitative estimate of vertical reef growth in the studied test plot indicates a reduction in net accretion rates of more than 80%, from 2.27 to 2.72 cm/yr between 1980 and 1991 to 0.28–0.42 cm/yr between 1991 and 2019. We carefully conclude that the changes observed in the coral community in the plot in 2019 (Acropora–Pocillopora shift, increase in Montipora and calcareous algae) are representative of impacts at the community level, including rising sea surface temperatures and recent bleaching events.

What has Changed in 20 Years? Structure and Function of Soft-sediment Macrofauna in a Subarctic Embayment, Newfoundland (Canada)

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems is central to predicting future dynamics. Placentia Bay is an Ecologically and Biologically Significant Area (EBSA) in the North Atlantic exposed to multiple stressors (e.g., rising sea surface temperatures, tanker traffic, and aquaculture). To investigate changes in the community and functional structure of soft-sediment macrofauna as well as environmental drivers of observed variation, we compared contemporary (2019–2020) and historical (1998) samples at eight stations (n = 77) collected 21 years apart. Although community and functional structure differed between these time points, functional traits were maintained (i.e., no loss of 36 trait modalities). Overall, 37% of species/taxa were only observed in either the historical or contemporary community, and the contemporary community exhibited lower macrofaunal density but had similar richness, resulting in higher evenness and diversity. Highly tolerant subsurface deposit feeders having small body sizes (< 10 mm) and direct development dominated the historical community. The contemporary community had nearly equal proportions of surface and subsurface deposit feeders with small to medium body sizes (< 10–50 mm) with pelagic larvae, and the proportion of highly tolerant species/taxa was reduced. These changes likely reflect the reduction in polychaetes (91 vs. 58%) and increased bivalves (4 vs. 25%) relative to the historical time point. Community variation was driven by changes in the sedimentary habitat. Contemporary versus historical sediments were ~ 4.5x coarser (possibly due to storms) with higher levels of sedimentary organic matter. This work contributes to advancing the understanding of relationships between benthic macrofauna, functional traits, and the sedimentary habitat in coastal environments.

Characterizing a regional fishery ecosystem trajectory: the Humpty Dumpty fish tale of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from 1986 to 2013

Showcasing the fishery ecosystem trajectory framework, this study seeks to understand the complex interplay between environmental, socioeconomic, and management factors in a large marine ecosystem as they relate to the status, structure, and function of living marine resources over time. Utilizing this framework, a historical accounting of a fishery ecosystem’s shifting stable states can be developed to describe the evolution of resources and identify apparent temporal controls. To that end, approximately three decades of data, spanning 1986–2013, were drawn from the 2017 ecosystem status report for the United States’ Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and used here as a case study. Analyses revealed a capricious system with ten unique fishery regime states over the 28-year period. The fishery ecosystem trajectory was broadly characterized by gradual and persistent changes, likely fueled by exploitation trends. However, a mid-1990s paradigm shift in the dynamics controlling the system-wide organization of resources resulted in an apparent recovery trajectory before leading to continued differentiation relative to its 1986 baseline configuration. This “Humpty Dumpty” ecosystem trajectory signifies permanent alterations akin to the nursery rhyme protagonist’s unrecoverable fall. Anthropogenic factors identified as influential to resource organization included artificial reef prevalence and recreational fishing pressure, while regional effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation’s warm phase transition after 1995 and rising sea surface temperatures in the GoM were also deemed notable. Conspicuously, the paradigm shift timing was coincident with effective implementation of annual catch limits due to the 1996 Sustainable Fisheries Act, highlighting the importance of the robust regulatory environment in this region. While these results describe the GoM fishery ecosystem’s vulnerability to shifting environmental and socioeconomic conditions, they also underscore its resources’ resilience, likely rooted in their complexity and diversity, to the rapidly evolving pressures observed throughout the study period. This work emphasizes the necessity of cautious, adaptive management strategies for large marine ecosystems, particularly in the face of climate-related uncertainties and species’ differential responses. It provides insight into the GoM fishery ecosystem’s dynamics and illustrates a transferable approach for informing ecosystem-based management strategies, sustainable practices, and decision making focused on preserving ecologically, economically, and culturally vital marine resources.

TEOS-10 Equations for Determining the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

At an energy flux imbalance of about 1 W m−2, the ocean stores 90% of the heat accumulating by global warming. However, neither the causes of this nor the responsible geophysical processes are sufficiently well understood. More detailed investigations of the different phenomena contributing to the oceanic energy balance are warranted. Here, the role of low-level marine clouds in the air–sea interaction is analysed. TEOS-10, the International Thermodynamic Equation of State of Seawater—2010, is exploited for a rigorous thermodynamic description of the climatic trends in the lifted condensation level (LCL) of the marine troposphere. Rising sea surface temperature (SST) at a constant relative humidity (RH) is elevating marine clouds, cooling the cloud base, and reducing downward thermal radiation. This LCL feedback effect is negative and counteracts ocean warming. At the current global mean SST of about 292 K, the net radiative heat flux from the ocean surface to the LCL cloud base is estimated to be 24 W m−2. Per degree of SST increase, this net flux is expected to be enhanced by almost 0.5 W m−2. The climatic LCL feedback effect is relevant for the ocean’s energy balance and may be rigorously thermodynamically modelled in terms of TEOS-10 equations. LCL height may serve as a remotely measured, sensitive estimate for the sea surface’s relative fugacity, or conventional relative humidity.

Comparative VGP models to analyse the primary productivity in the north Indian ocean and the linkages with rising sea surface temperature

The Primary Productivity of an ecosystem is an indicator of the health of the marine ecosystem and fishing yield. Primary productivity across the continental sea of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin was estimated using two vertically generalised production models. We examine the productivity using two non-parametric tests and present the changes using a gridded basin map. In the Behrenfeld and Falkowski (BF) approach, estimated primary productivity shows a significant decline of over 6550 km2 from 2003 to 2020, recorded spatially 100 km2 adjacent to the coastline. However, an area of 825 km2 across the exclusive economic zone of the Indian sub-continent has seen a significant rise in primary productivity. The Kameda and Ishizaka (KI) model limits productivity reduction to 2500 km2 across the NIO basin. The seasonal trends indicate reduced summer productivity across the basin. Both models point towards a significant reduction of productivity observed across the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (ARS) coastal regions owing to the damaging effects of anthropogenic-induced global warming. Secondly, simultaneous regression analysis using climate-based indicators and satellite-based NPP and Chlr-a data shows a significant reduction with high magnitude in the levels of NPP across the BoB and ARS between 1997 and 2020 due to rising sea surface temperature and a reduction of 9% and 6% in chlorophyll-a levels, respectively. These results point towards the inverse linkage between the rising SST on the primary productivity of the NIO basin and its devastating impacts on marine fisheries, especially in the BoB. These findings underscore the need for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of climate change and promote sustainable management of marine resources.

A global database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves

Coral reefs support the world’s most diverse marine ecosystem and provide invaluable goods and services for millions of people worldwide. They are however experiencing frequent and intensive marine heatwaves that are causing coral bleaching and mortality. Coarse-grained climate models predict that few coral reefs will survive the 3 °C sea-surface temperature rise in the coming century. Yet, field studies show localized pockets of coral survival and recovery even under high-temperature conditions. Quantifying recovery from marine heatwaves is central to making accurate predictions of coral-reef trajectories into the near future. Here we introduce the world’s most comprehensive database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves and other disturbances, called Heatwaves and Coral-Recovery Database (HeatCRD) encompassing 29,205 data records spanning 44 years from 12,266 sites, 83 countries, and 160 data sources. These data provide essential information to coral-reef scientists and managers to best guide coral-reef conservation efforts at both local and regional scales.

Investigation of the Synoptic and Dynamical Characteristics of Cyclone Shaheen (2021) and Its Influence on the Omani Coastal Region

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen (TCS), originating in the Arabian Sea on 30 September 2021, followed an east-to-west trajectory and made landfall as a category-1 cyclone in northern Oman on 3 October 2021, causing severe floods and damages before dissipating in the United Arab Emirates. This study aims to analyze the synoptic and dynamical conditions influencing Shaheen’s genesis and evolution. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, SEVIRI-EUMETSAT imagery, and Sorbonne University Atmospheric Forecasting System (SUAFS) outputs, it was found that Shaheen manifested as a warm-core cyclone with moderate vertical wind shear within the eyewall. Distinctive features included a trajectory aligned with rising sea surface temperatures and increased specific humidity levels at 700 hPa in the Arabian Sea. As Shaheen approached the Gulf of Oman, a significant increase in rainfall rates occurred, correlated with variations in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear. Comparative analysis between SUAFS and ERA5 data revealed a slight northward shift in the SUAFS track and landfall. Advance warnings highlighted heavy rainfall, rough seas, and strong winds. This study provides valuable insights into the meteorological factors contributing to Shaheen’s formation and impact.

Population genomics of the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris): Implications for conservation amid climate-driven range shifts

Climate change is rapidly affecting species distributions across the globe, particularly in the North Atlantic. For highly mobile and elusive cetaceans, the genetic data needed to understand population dynamics are often scarce. Cold-water obligate species such as the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) face pressures from habitat shifts due to rising sea surface temperatures in addition to other direct anthropogenic threats. Unravelling the genetic connectivity between white-beaked dolphins across their range is needed to understand the extent to which climate change and anthropogenic pressures may impact species-wide genetic diversity and identify ways to protect remaining habitat. We address this by performing a population genomic assessment of white-beaked dolphins using samples from much of their contemporary range. We show that the species displays significant population structure across the North Atlantic at multiple scales. Analysis of contemporary migration rates suggests a remarkably high connectivity between populations in the western North Atlantic, Iceland and the Barents Sea, while two regional populations in the North Sea and adjacent UK and Irish waters are highly differentiated from all other clades. Our results have important implications for the conservation of white-beaked dolphins by providing guidance for the delineation of more appropriate management units and highlighting the risk that local extirpation may have on species-wide genetic diversity. In a broader context, this study highlights the importance of understanding genetic structure of all species threatened with climate change-driven range shifts to assess the risk of loss of species-wide genetic diversity.

Baseline Climatology of the Canary Current Upwelling System and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature

Global climate change has induced a rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although this increase is not uniform across the world. Significant variations exist between coastal and offshore waters, particularly in regions affected by upwelling processes. This study focuses on the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS), stretching from Northwest Iberia to Northwest Africa. High-resolution remotely sensed SST data (0.05°) from the ODYSSEA Level 4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed dataset were validated with in situ measurements and employed to establish a regional climatological baseline for 1982–2012. Subsequent years were compared to this baseline to construct SST anomaly maps, revealing SST changes since 2012. The study area was further divided into sub-regions for comparative analysis. Results indicate that SST consistently increased at a higher rate offshore compared to the adjacent nearshore regions. A reference dataset spanning 1951–1981 was used to gauge SST variability between the two baselines. SST exhibited a 0.59 °C increase from 1951–1981 to 1982–2012, with a slowing of SST trends beyond the 1982–2012 baseline. This research offers valuable insights into the climatological dynamics of the CCUS. These findings enhance our understanding of this critical coastal system’s climatology, laying the groundwork for future investigations into evolving climate patterns in coastal regions.

Warming of the Kuroshio Current Over the Last Four Decades has Intensified the Meiyu‐Baiu Rainband

AbstractIn recent decades, rise of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio region of the East China Sea (ECS), which is associated with global warming, has attracted considerable attention. Despite its relevance to air‐sea interaction phenomena, the atmospheric consequences of this SST increase remain largely unexplored. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data set in conjunction with a moisture budget analysis, we found that during 1979–2022, warming in the ECS‐Kuroshio has contributed to the intensification of the East Asian Meiyu‐Baiu rainband in June. This intensification is attributed to augmented wind convergence in the low‐level free troposphere (950–700 hPa). Importantly, the atmospheric responses to ECS‐Kuroshio warming penetrated the deep troposphere (to approximately 300 hPa), suggesting an enhancement of deep convection. Furthermore, ECS‐Kuroshio warming likely strengthened the overlying atmospheric low pressure, resulting in wind convergence enhancement. The findings clarified the important role of the ECS‐Kuroshio in driving East Asian climate change amid global warming.

Recruitment Patterns and Environmental Sensitivity of Glass Eels of Anguilla japonica in the Yangtze Estuary, China.

The decline of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) populations in the Yangtze River estuary represents a critical conservation concern. Eleven-years of daily catch data during recruitment periods (i.e., January-April, 2012-2022) indicate that annual catch averaged from 153 to 1108 eels, and show a bimodal pattern in glass eel arrivals. Utilizing seasonal-trend decomposition and generalized additive models, we demonstrated a strong correlation between catch abundance, optimal water temperatures, and lunar cycles. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicts an increase in glass eel numbers for 2023-2024 but also points to a concerning trend of delayed recruitment timing since 2016, attributable to the 0.48 °C per decade rise in sea surface temperatures. This delay correlates with a significant decrease in the average body weight of glass eels, suggesting potential energy deficits that may hinder successful upstream migration. This study not only furthers our understanding of glass eel recruitment dynamics but also underscores the urgent need for targeted conservation measures. Additionally, it highlights the importance of sustained, detailed monitoring to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on these eels, vital for preserving the Yangtze River's ecological integrity.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate at Gun Nuur in the northern Mongolian Plateau

This study quantitatively reconstructs Holocene climate based on a palynological analysis of a 745-cm lake core at Gun Nuur in the northern Mongolian Plateau. The core is precisely dated with 49 dates and the dataset comprises 372 pollen samples providing high temporal resolution. We obtained quantitative reconstructions of annual temperature (Tann) and precipitation (Pann) based on comparison with a modern pollen dataset comprising 604 data sites for which climate correlation coefficients are high (R2 = 0.76 for Tann and R2 = 0.70 for Pann) and the uncertainties are relatively small (RMSEP = 1.99 °C for Tann and RMSEP = 46.22 mm for Pann). Results show that the climate in the northern Mongolian Plateau experienced a warm-dry climate in the early Holocene (∼10,300 to ∼7900 cal. yr BP), a stable cool-wet climate in the middle and early-late Holocene (∼7900 to ∼2300 cal. yr BP), and an increasingly cool-wet climate in more recent times (last ∼2300 years). The high temperature in the northern Mongolian Plateau before ∼7900 cal. yr BP is attributable to the thermal sensitivity of the interior Asian continent to high summer insolation. The nearly constant and rather stable temperature during the past ∼7900 years is most likely the result of the thermal insensitivity of the well-developed and densely-covered Taiga forests in south Siberia to declining summer insolation. Increasing precipitation in the northern Mongolian Plateau in the period before ∼7900 cal. yr BP is similar to coeval records from the Altai Mountains, the Yinshan Mountains and the Lake Baikal basin, and most likely resulted from rising sea surface temperature both in the North Atlantic Ocean and in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean. The stable and nearly constant precipitation during the past ∼7900 years most likely resulted from the combined effect of decreasing water vapor supply from the cooling Western Tropical Pacific Ocean and the increasing water vapor supply from the warming North Atlantic Ocean.

Evaluating rural poverty and livelihood diversification in the context of climate-induced extreme events in coastal area: Insights from Indian Sundarban

Agriculture has traditionally been the backbone of the Indian economy, accounting for a large portion of our country’s gross domestic product. Climate change scenarios, rising sea surface temperatures, and other environmental concerns have had a significant impact on agricultural production, making this situation more vulnerable and forcing rural communities to seek alternative forms of income. To better grasp the genuine status of livelihood diversification, researchers looked at some of the most vulnerable cyclone-affected villages in the Indian Sundarban’s southwest coastal districts. For this exploratory work based on geomorphological units, 850 households from fifteen different places were surveyed. However, 15 FGDs were performed to get specific information from the community. Using Alkire and Foster technique with Simpson Index, this study seeks to estimate multidimensional poverty index for village households in coastal blocks of West Bengal. The multiple linear regression model (MLRM) subtraction of predictor variables using the T-test uses stepwise regression. Results reveal livelihood diversification as way-out to poverty due to climatic extreme events. Coastal and riverine villages decomposed of roughly 80% of deprivation with 48% intense poverty. Livelihoods in island, coastal and riverine locations heavily transformed during last 10-12 years. In MLRM model food security alone explains (81.7%) the regional livelihood diversification. The majority of rural communities primarily from island, coastal, and riverine areas, have diversified their livelihoods from agriculture and fishing. Multiple factors, both positive and negative, lead to the reduction of livelihood diversification. Extreme occurrences have a substantial impact on livelihood diversification, as do the number of migrants, household assets, education of the head of family, dependence ratio, and amount of savings. In order to address such problems, households in most villages aim to diversify their income opportunities from nature-based (farm-related) to non-formal (non-farm) activities, as shown by the findings of this assessment.

Predicting the interannual variability of the subtropical high over the western Pacific Ocean based on the improved information diffusion model

Because of its special location and structure, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) influences greatly the climate and weather in East Asia, especially the summer precipitation. To clarify how the interannual variability (IAV) of the WPSH is related to anomalies in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation, time series of the intensity index of the WPSH are subjected to wavelet analysis, showing IAV in the index. Characteristic indexes are defined for three key sea areas and the equatorial-latitude westerly region. After a continuous wavelet transform, the oscillation period of them is similar to that of the WPSH. The cross-wavelet transform of the four regional and two WPSH indexes is used to obtain the corresponding time-delay correlation. Regarding the potential correlation, WPSH weakening leads to strengthening of the westerly wind and then affects the rise of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the same time, warm water moves eastward. This gradually increases the SST in the equatorial central Pacific and warm pool area and then strengthens the WPSH under the action of the Hadley circulation. From the above analysis, a model for predicting the IAV of the WPSH intensity index is established based on the information diffusion model improved by a genetic algorithm. An experiment is conducted to predict the IAV of the WPSH intensity index, and the results show that the prediction model is accurate in predicting the IAV trend, with good prediction for 84 months. The mean absolute percentage error is 14.44% and the correlation coefficient is 0.8507. Also, the normal and abnormal years of the WPSH are used as different starting points for different prediction experiments. However, the different starting points have little influence on the predictions, showing the stability of the model. Studying the IAV of the WPSH provides a strong theoretical and scientific basis for predicting its abnormal interannual behavior and offers the prospect of socially important disaster prevention and mitigation.

A MIXED METHOD TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE STUDY OF COASTAL FACTOR CORRELATION TO DECLINING SEA ICE IN RESOLUTE BAY, NUNAVUT

Canadian Arctic environments suffer severe consequences from global climate change. As sea surface and air temperatures rise, sea ice extent and thickness continue to decline, resulting in longer ice-free seasons. Due to the remote nature of Canadian Arctic communities, there are limited quantitative data available for calibration of predictions. However, local Inuit hunters, trappers, and elders hold a plethora of knowledge on the sea ice and coastal environment within their communities. This study seeks to answer the question, can coastal factors be correlated to declining sea ice through scientific and traditional knowledge methods. The present study examined (1) historical trends in, (2) lived experience and traditional knowledge of, and (3) correlation between, sea ice and the coastal environment in Resolute Bay, Nunavut Canada.