Rising Sea Surface Temperatures Research Articles

TEOS-10 Equations for Determining the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

At an energy flux imbalance of about 1 W m–2, the ocean stores 90% of the heat accumulating by global warming. However, neither the causes of this nor the responsible geophysical processes are sufficiently well understood. More detailed investigations of the different phenomena contributing to the oceanic energy balance are warranted. Here, the role of low-level marine clouds in the air–sea interaction is analysed. TEOS-10, the International Thermodynamic Equation of State of Seawater—2010, is exploited for a rigorous thermodynamic description of the climatic trends in the lifted condensation level (LCL) of the marine troposphere. Rising sea surface temperature (SST) at a constant relative humidity (RH) is elevating marine clouds, cooling the cloud base, and reducing downward thermal radiation. This LCL feedback effect is negative and counteracts ocean warming. At the current global mean SST of about 292 K, the net radiative heat flux from the ocean surface to the LCL cloud base is estimated to be 24 W m–2. Per degree of SST increase, this net flux is expected to be enhanced by almost 0.5 W m–2. The climatic LCL feedback effect is relevant for the ocean’s energy balance and may be rigorously thermodynamically modelled in terms of TEOS-10 equations. LCL height may serve as a remotely measured, sensitive estimate for the sea surface’s relative fugacity, or conventional relative humidity.

Comparative VGP models to analyse the primary productivity in the north Indian ocean and the linkages with rising sea surface temperature

The Primary Productivity of an ecosystem is an indicator of the health of the marine ecosystem and fishing yield. Primary productivity across the continental sea of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin was estimated using two vertically generalised production models. We examine the productivity using two non-parametric tests and present the changes using a gridded basin map. In the Behrenfeld and Falkowski (BF) approach, estimated primary productivity shows a significant decline of over 6550 km2 from 2003 to 2020, recorded spatially 100 km2 adjacent to the coastline. However, an area of 825 km2 across the exclusive economic zone of the Indian sub-continent has seen a significant rise in primary productivity. The Kameda and Ishizaka (KI) model limits productivity reduction to 2500 km2 across the NIO basin. The seasonal trends indicate reduced summer productivity across the basin. Both models point towards a significant reduction of productivity observed across the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (ARS) coastal regions owing to the damaging effects of anthropogenic-induced global warming. Secondly, simultaneous regression analysis using climate-based indicators and satellite-based NPP and Chlr-a data shows a significant reduction with high magnitude in the levels of NPP across the BoB and ARS between 1997 and 2020 due to rising sea surface temperature and a reduction of 9% and 6% in chlorophyll-a levels, respectively. These results point towards the inverse linkage between the rising SST on the primary productivity of the NIO basin and its devastating impacts on marine fisheries, especially in the BoB. These findings underscore the need for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of climate change and promote sustainable management of marine resources.

A global database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves

Coral reefs support the world’s most diverse marine ecosystem and provide invaluable goods and services for millions of people worldwide. They are however experiencing frequent and intensive marine heatwaves that are causing coral bleaching and mortality. Coarse-grained climate models predict that few coral reefs will survive the 3 °C sea-surface temperature rise in the coming century. Yet, field studies show localized pockets of coral survival and recovery even under high-temperature conditions. Quantifying recovery from marine heatwaves is central to making accurate predictions of coral-reef trajectories into the near future. Here we introduce the world’s most comprehensive database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves and other disturbances, called Heatwaves and Coral-Recovery Database (HeatCRD) encompassing 29,205 data records spanning 44 years from 12,266 sites, 83 countries, and 160 data sources. These data provide essential information to coral-reef scientists and managers to best guide coral-reef conservation efforts at both local and regional scales.

Investigation of the Synoptic and Dynamical Characteristics of Cyclone Shaheen (2021) and Its Influence on the Omani Coastal Region

Tropical Cyclone Shaheen (TCS), originating in the Arabian Sea on 30 September 2021, followed an east-to-west trajectory and made landfall as a category-1 cyclone in northern Oman on 3 October 2021, causing severe floods and damages before dissipating in the United Arab Emirates. This study aims to analyze the synoptic and dynamical conditions influencing Shaheen’s genesis and evolution. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, SEVIRI-EUMETSAT imagery, and Sorbonne University Atmospheric Forecasting System (SUAFS) outputs, it was found that Shaheen manifested as a warm-core cyclone with moderate vertical wind shear within the eyewall. Distinctive features included a trajectory aligned with rising sea surface temperatures and increased specific humidity levels at 700 hPa in the Arabian Sea. As Shaheen approached the Gulf of Oman, a significant increase in rainfall rates occurred, correlated with variations in sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear. Comparative analysis between SUAFS and ERA5 data revealed a slight northward shift in the SUAFS track and landfall. Advance warnings highlighted heavy rainfall, rough seas, and strong winds. This study provides valuable insights into the meteorological factors contributing to Shaheen’s formation and impact.

Population genomics of the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris): Implications for conservation amid climate-driven range shifts

Climate change is rapidly affecting species distributions across the globe, particularly in the North Atlantic. For highly mobile and elusive cetaceans, the genetic data needed to understand population dynamics are often scarce. Cold-water obligate species such as the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) face pressures from habitat shifts due to rising sea surface temperatures in addition to other direct anthropogenic threats. Unravelling the genetic connectivity between white-beaked dolphins across their range is needed to understand the extent to which climate change and anthropogenic pressures may impact species-wide genetic diversity and identify ways to protect remaining habitat. We address this by performing a population genomic assessment of white-beaked dolphins using samples from much of their contemporary range. We show that the species displays significant population structure across the North Atlantic at multiple scales. Analysis of contemporary migration rates suggests a remarkably high connectivity between populations in the western North Atlantic, Iceland and the Barents Sea, while two regional populations in the North Sea and adjacent UK and Irish waters are highly differentiated from all other clades. Our results have important implications for the conservation of white-beaked dolphins by providing guidance for the delineation of more appropriate management units and highlighting the risk that local extirpation may have on species-wide genetic diversity. In a broader context, this study highlights the importance of understanding genetic structure of all species threatened with climate change-driven range shifts to assess the risk of loss of species-wide genetic diversity.

Baseline Climatology of the Canary Current Upwelling System and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature

Global climate change has induced a rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although this increase is not uniform across the world. Significant variations exist between coastal and offshore waters, particularly in regions affected by upwelling processes. This study focuses on the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS), stretching from Northwest Iberia to Northwest Africa. High-resolution remotely sensed SST data (0.05°) from the ODYSSEA Level 4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed dataset were validated with in situ measurements and employed to establish a regional climatological baseline for 1982–2012. Subsequent years were compared to this baseline to construct SST anomaly maps, revealing SST changes since 2012. The study area was further divided into sub-regions for comparative analysis. Results indicate that SST consistently increased at a higher rate offshore compared to the adjacent nearshore regions. A reference dataset spanning 1951–1981 was used to gauge SST variability between the two baselines. SST exhibited a 0.59 °C increase from 1951–1981 to 1982–2012, with a slowing of SST trends beyond the 1982–2012 baseline. This research offers valuable insights into the climatological dynamics of the CCUS. These findings enhance our understanding of this critical coastal system’s climatology, laying the groundwork for future investigations into evolving climate patterns in coastal regions.

Warming of the Kuroshio Current Over the Last Four Decades has Intensified the Meiyu‐Baiu Rainband

AbstractIn recent decades, rise of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio region of the East China Sea (ECS), which is associated with global warming, has attracted considerable attention. Despite its relevance to air‐sea interaction phenomena, the atmospheric consequences of this SST increase remain largely unexplored. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data set in conjunction with a moisture budget analysis, we found that during 1979–2022, warming in the ECS‐Kuroshio has contributed to the intensification of the East Asian Meiyu‐Baiu rainband in June. This intensification is attributed to augmented wind convergence in the low‐level free troposphere (950–700 hPa). Importantly, the atmospheric responses to ECS‐Kuroshio warming penetrated the deep troposphere (to approximately 300 hPa), suggesting an enhancement of deep convection. Furthermore, ECS‐Kuroshio warming likely strengthened the overlying atmospheric low pressure, resulting in wind convergence enhancement. The findings clarified the important role of the ECS‐Kuroshio in driving East Asian climate change amid global warming.

Recruitment Patterns and Environmental Sensitivity of Glass Eels of Anguilla japonica in the Yangtze Estuary, China.

The decline of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) populations in the Yangtze River estuary represents a critical conservation concern. Eleven-years of daily catch data during recruitment periods (i.e., January-April, 2012-2022) indicate that annual catch averaged from 153 to 1108 eels, and show a bimodal pattern in glass eel arrivals. Utilizing seasonal-trend decomposition and generalized additive models, we demonstrated a strong correlation between catch abundance, optimal water temperatures, and lunar cycles. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicts an increase in glass eel numbers for 2023-2024 but also points to a concerning trend of delayed recruitment timing since 2016, attributable to the 0.48 °C per decade rise in sea surface temperatures. This delay correlates with a significant decrease in the average body weight of glass eels, suggesting potential energy deficits that may hinder successful upstream migration. This study not only furthers our understanding of glass eel recruitment dynamics but also underscores the urgent need for targeted conservation measures. Additionally, it highlights the importance of sustained, detailed monitoring to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on these eels, vital for preserving the Yangtze River's ecological integrity.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate at Gun Nuur in the northern Mongolian Plateau

This study quantitatively reconstructs Holocene climate based on a palynological analysis of a 745-cm lake core at Gun Nuur in the northern Mongolian Plateau. The core is precisely dated with 49 dates and the dataset comprises 372 pollen samples providing high temporal resolution. We obtained quantitative reconstructions of annual temperature (Tann) and precipitation (Pann) based on comparison with a modern pollen dataset comprising 604 data sites for which climate correlation coefficients are high (R2 = 0.76 for Tann and R2 = 0.70 for Pann) and the uncertainties are relatively small (RMSEP = 1.99 °C for Tann and RMSEP = 46.22 mm for Pann). Results show that the climate in the northern Mongolian Plateau experienced a warm-dry climate in the early Holocene (∼10,300 to ∼7900 cal. yr BP), a stable cool-wet climate in the middle and early-late Holocene (∼7900 to ∼2300 cal. yr BP), and an increasingly cool-wet climate in more recent times (last ∼2300 years). The high temperature in the northern Mongolian Plateau before ∼7900 cal. yr BP is attributable to the thermal sensitivity of the interior Asian continent to high summer insolation. The nearly constant and rather stable temperature during the past ∼7900 years is most likely the result of the thermal insensitivity of the well-developed and densely-covered Taiga forests in south Siberia to declining summer insolation. Increasing precipitation in the northern Mongolian Plateau in the period before ∼7900 cal. yr BP is similar to coeval records from the Altai Mountains, the Yinshan Mountains and the Lake Baikal basin, and most likely resulted from rising sea surface temperature both in the North Atlantic Ocean and in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean. The stable and nearly constant precipitation during the past ∼7900 years most likely resulted from the combined effect of decreasing water vapor supply from the cooling Western Tropical Pacific Ocean and the increasing water vapor supply from the warming North Atlantic Ocean.

Evaluating rural poverty and livelihood diversification in the context of climate-induced extreme events in coastal area: Insights from Indian Sundarban

Agriculture has traditionally been the backbone of the Indian economy, accounting for a large portion of our country’s gross domestic product. Climate change scenarios, rising sea surface temperatures, and other environmental concerns have had a significant impact on agricultural production, making this situation more vulnerable and forcing rural communities to seek alternative forms of income. To better grasp the genuine status of livelihood diversification, researchers looked at some of the most vulnerable cyclone-affected villages in the Indian Sundarban’s southwest coastal districts. For this exploratory work based on geomorphological units, 850 households from fifteen different places were surveyed. However, 15 FGDs were performed to get specific information from the community. Using Alkire and Foster technique with Simpson Index, this study seeks to estimate multidimensional poverty index for village households in coastal blocks of West Bengal. The multiple linear regression model (MLRM) subtraction of predictor variables using the T-test uses stepwise regression. Results reveal livelihood diversification as way-out to poverty due to climatic extreme events. Coastal and riverine villages decomposed of roughly 80% of deprivation with 48% intense poverty. Livelihoods in island, coastal and riverine locations heavily transformed during last 10-12 years. In MLRM model food security alone explains (81.7%) the regional livelihood diversification. The majority of rural communities primarily from island, coastal, and riverine areas, have diversified their livelihoods from agriculture and fishing. Multiple factors, both positive and negative, lead to the reduction of livelihood diversification. Extreme occurrences have a substantial impact on livelihood diversification, as do the number of migrants, household assets, education of the head of family, dependence ratio, and amount of savings. In order to address such problems, households in most villages aim to diversify their income opportunities from nature-based (farm-related) to non-formal (non-farm) activities, as shown by the findings of this assessment.

Predicting the interannual variability of the subtropical high over the western Pacific Ocean based on the improved information diffusion model

Because of its special location and structure, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) influences greatly the climate and weather in East Asia, especially the summer precipitation. To clarify how the interannual variability (IAV) of the WPSH is related to anomalies in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation, time series of the intensity index of the WPSH are subjected to wavelet analysis, showing IAV in the index. Characteristic indexes are defined for three key sea areas and the equatorial-latitude westerly region. After a continuous wavelet transform, the oscillation period of them is similar to that of the WPSH. The cross-wavelet transform of the four regional and two WPSH indexes is used to obtain the corresponding time-delay correlation. Regarding the potential correlation, WPSH weakening leads to strengthening of the westerly wind and then affects the rise of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the same time, warm water moves eastward. This gradually increases the SST in the equatorial central Pacific and warm pool area and then strengthens the WPSH under the action of the Hadley circulation. From the above analysis, a model for predicting the IAV of the WPSH intensity index is established based on the information diffusion model improved by a genetic algorithm. An experiment is conducted to predict the IAV of the WPSH intensity index, and the results show that the prediction model is accurate in predicting the IAV trend, with good prediction for 84 months. The mean absolute percentage error is 14.44% and the correlation coefficient is 0.8507. Also, the normal and abnormal years of the WPSH are used as different starting points for different prediction experiments. However, the different starting points have little influence on the predictions, showing the stability of the model. Studying the IAV of the WPSH provides a strong theoretical and scientific basis for predicting its abnormal interannual behavior and offers the prospect of socially important disaster prevention and mitigation.

A MIXED METHOD TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE STUDY OF COASTAL FACTOR CORRELATION TO DECLINING SEA ICE IN RESOLUTE BAY, NUNAVUT

Canadian Arctic environments suffer severe consequences from global climate change. As sea surface and air temperatures rise, sea ice extent and thickness continue to decline, resulting in longer ice-free seasons. Due to the remote nature of Canadian Arctic communities, there are limited quantitative data available for calibration of predictions. However, local Inuit hunters, trappers, and elders hold a plethora of knowledge on the sea ice and coastal environment within their communities. This study seeks to answer the question, can coastal factors be correlated to declining sea ice through scientific and traditional knowledge methods. The present study examined (1) historical trends in, (2) lived experience and traditional knowledge of, and (3) correlation between, sea ice and the coastal environment in Resolute Bay, Nunavut Canada.

Niche comparison and range shifts for two Kappaphycus species in the Indo-Pacific Ocean under climate change

Nowadays, eucheumatoids lead the rankings in globally cultivated seaweed production, including the seaweeds Kappaphycus alvarezii and Kappaphycus striatus. Eucheumatoids have declined in biomass over recent years, and climate change is regarded as one of the important factors. Thus, it is urgent to investigate the range dynamics of Kappaphycus under climate change. Considering its high practical relevance for conserving biodiversity, the niche conservatism hypothesis was tested between the two species through ecological niche modeling (ENM), ordination, and hypervolume approach which quantify the extent of niche overlap. In this study, we sifted the best-performing algorithm - Maxent and tuned parameters for fitting the distribution of both Kappaphycus species, compared their geographical distribution patterns, and predicted their range dynamics under climate change. All three methodological approaches indicated significant niche differences in both geographical and environmental space between the two Kappaphycus species. Our models predicted that range shifts mainly induced by rising sea surface temperature are likely to differ between two Kappaphycus species, with K. striatus suffering much range contraction (359,448 km2 in 2100s RCP8.5). By the year 2100, both Kappaphycus species are forecast to lose suitable habitats along most of the coastline of Southeast Asia under the RCP8.5 scenario. K. alvarezii is predicted to expand its distributions (96,429 km2) under the RCP2.6 scenario by the year 2100, suggesting resilience to mild global warming. Our study enhances the understanding of Kappaphycus aquaculture, and is conducive to the sustainable development of tropical seaweed by stressing the importance of conservation and investigation under climate change.

Environmental communication in community-based conservation movement: Lesson from the Masigit Kareumbi Hunting Park, Indonesia

Environmental communication plays an important role in articulating environmental and disaster issues such as global warming, rising sea surface temperatures, pollution, and nature conservation. Not only delivering information and dialogues on environment, but it also manifests through actions such as protest, posters, movies, and concrete participation. Inevitably, the nexus of environmental communication in Indonesia should lie in its action involving community participation in the conservation movement. Therefore, this study seeks to explain the symbolic action in The Masigit Kareumbi Conservation Movement. This research used a qualitative method with a single instrumental case study strategy approach by taking a case of The Masigit Kareumbi Conservation Cadre School and benefitted from environmental communication functions and participatory communication. Data were collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews, direct observation, and literature study. The result is the symbolic action in this conservation movement has served two functions in environmental communication: pragmatic and constitutive. The pragmatic function is discovered through educational sessions and discussions on conservation in the hunting park for protecting wilderness area. The constitutive action is laid out by fostering relationship and worldview with nature through hiking, flora, and fauna lessons, and seeking the meaning of nature for students involved.

Literature Study on Conditions of Sea Surface Temperature and Seawater Rise in Indonesia Detected by Remote Sensing

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an important parameter for climate dynamic issues either globally or regionally as well as for global warming issues. In some condition the parameter can cause melting glaciers that will influence the rise of the sea levels. The further effect will be the climate change with the weather phenomena such as storms, hurricanes and heavy rains. As the result, the changes of the planting seasons occur and all of these will harm human life on earth. If there is no prevention with the condition of the parameter it is predicted that by 2040 the sea levels will rise highly because of the melting polar ice caps that will cause the sink of theislands. The SST has been detecting using remote sensing methods for 32 years in Indonesia. The trend has increased to reduce the damage of infrastructure and the activity disturbance of coastal communities. Indonesian country optimistically commits to achieve the target of net zero emission by 2060. The Indonesian government has stated nationally the climate target commitments determined for Indonesia and will strive to maintain the main target of reducing greenhouse gas emission into 41% by 2030.

Photosynthesis and whole-plant carbon balances of warm affinity Halophila nipponica and cold affinity Zostera marina in relation to water temperature rise: implication for future geographic distribution

Climate change associated sea surface temperature rise could significantly affect the physiology, and consequently geographic distribution of seagrasses. Photosynthetic and respiratory responses of warm affinity Halophila nipponica and cold affinity Zostera marina to a change in water temperature (7–26°C) were investigated to estimate whole-plant carbon balance for prediction of the future geographic distributions of these seagrasses in the northwestern Pacific region. It was hypothesized that H. nipponica and Z. marina showed distinctly different patterns of carbon balance with changes in water temperature. Photosynthetic and respiratory rates of H. nipponica and Z. marina generally increased with increasing water temperature, except for Ic and Ik of H. nipponica and α of Z. marina. H. nipponica showed high Pmax and α values, which could support a greater respiratory demand related to the higher proportion of non-photosynthetic tissues (~67%), compared with Z. marina (~34%). The whole-plant carbon balance of Z. marina remained positive throughout the experiment, although it decreased to nearly zero during the high water-temperature period. H. nipponica exhibited a negative carbon balance during winter and early spring, which corresponded with severely limited growth at water temperatures< 15°C. These results suggest that increases in water temperature, particularly during winter, in relation to continuous climate change, could induce substantial changes in the seagrass ecosystem structure and corresponding changes in coastal ecosystem services in the temperate coastal waters of the northwestern Pacific region. The results of this study will provide valuable information on the effective management and conservation of coastal and estuarine ecosystems under ongoing climate change.

The temporal abundance-distribution relationship in a global invader sheds light on species distribution mechanisms

The geographic expansion and abundance fluctuations of invasive species offer unprecedented insights to investigate potential mechanisms underlying the distribution-abundance relationship, one of the most universal patterns in community ecology. However, the abundance of invasive species is rarely documented in the needed detail. Data from historical records, scientific and popular literature, citizen science and expert interviews were synthesized to obtain insights into the long-term expansion and abundance cycles of the Chinese mitten crab, one of the world’s 100 worst invasive species. Thus for the first time, global long-term data on population size fluctuations have been correlated with the global spatiotemporal invasion history of a non-native species. Geographic expansions and increases in abundance co-occurred in the 1930s and again since the 1990s in agreement with the distribution-abundance relationship. Furthermore, a regional case study for the German river Elbe indicates that increases in abundance may be driven by improved riverine water quality and rising sea surface temperatures. Environmental restoration and climate change therefore benefit this invasive species, and could lead to further geographic expansion and increases in abundance.

A Vibrio T6SS-Mediated Lethality in an Aquatic Animal Model.

Bacteria belonging to the genus Vibrio include many known and emerging pathogens. Horizontal gene transfer of pathogenicity islands is a major contributor to the emergence of new pathogenic Vibrio strains. Here, we use the brine shrimp Artemia salina as a model and show that the marine bacterium Vibrio proteolyticus uses a horizontally shared type VI secretion system, T6SS3, to intoxicate a eukaryotic host. Two T6SS3 effectors, which were previously shown to induce inflammasome-mediated pyroptotic cell death in mammalian phagocytic cells, contribute to this toxicity. Furthermore, we find a novel T6SS3 effector that also contributes to the lethality mediated by this system against Artemia salina. Therefore, our results reveal a T6SS that is shared among diverse vibrios and mediates host lethality, indicating that it can lead to the emergence of new pathogenic strains. IMPORTANCE The rise in sea surface temperature has been linked to the spread of bacteria belonging to the genus Vibrio and the human illnesses associated with them. Since vibrios often share virulence traits horizontally, a better understanding of their virulence potential and determinants can prepare us for new emerging pathogens. In this work, we showed that a toxin delivery system found in various vibrios mediates lethality in an aquatic animal. Taken together with previous reports showing that the same system induces inflammasome-mediated cell death in mammalian phagocytic cells, our findings suggest that this delivery system and its associated toxins may contribute to the emergence of pathogenic strains.

Risk assessment of coral reef vulnerability to climate change and stressors in tropical islands: The case of Mauritius

Coral reefs play a critical role in the socio-economic development of oceanic islands, besides offering coastal protection against the destructive forces of the sea under storm conditions. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making-based geospatial model is used which combine highly influential climatic, ecological, and anthropogenic reef degradation factors in view of revealing regions of high coral reef vulnerabilities to inform ecosystems conservation and management. Further investigation of the coastal seawater temperature trend revealed a rise in sea surface temperature approximating 0.66 °C over the 2003–2020 period as compared to the 1985–2003 interval, with a decadal temperature rise of 0.16 °C reported to be higher than the global average. The bleaching threshold in the region is frequently exceeded during the postmillennial period, further reducing coral fitness. Finally, management strategies are proposed here, which include the adequate design of Marine Protected Area networks, and the implementation of policy strategies for fertilizer use, sustainable coastal development projects, and control of reef predator population. The insights in this paper are expected to be applicable in the reef management of other oceanic islands.

Where have all the petrels gone? Forty years (1978–2020) of Wilson’s Storm Petrel (Oceanites oceanicus) population dynamics at King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo, Antarctica) in a changing climate

Numerous seabird species are experiencing population declines, and this trend is expected to continue or even accelerate in the future. To understand the effects of environmental change on seabird populations, long-term studies are vital, but rare. Here, we present over four decades (1978–2020) of population dynamic and reproductive performance data of Wilson’s Storm Petrels (Oceanites oceanicus) from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica. We determined temporal trends in population size, breeding output, and chick growth rates, and related interannual variation in these variables to various environmental variables. Our study revealed a decline of 90% in population size of Wilson’s Storm Petrels in two colonies, and considerable changes in breeding output and chick growth rates. Temporal changes in breeding demographics were linked to interannual environmental variation, either causing changes in food availability (particularly Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba) or in nest burrow accessibility due to snow blocking the entrance. With the expected rise in air and sea surface temperatures, the predicted increases in precipitation over the Antarctic Peninsula will likely lead to increased snowstorm prevalence. Additionally, the rising temperatures will likely reduce food availability due to reduced sea ice cover in the wintering grounds of Antarctic krill, or by changing phyto- and zooplankton community compositions. The ongoing environmental changes may thus lead to a further population decline, or at the very least will not allow the population to recover. Monitoring the population dynamics of Antarctic seabirds is vital to increase our understanding of climate change-induced changes in polar food webs.