Riparian Countries Research Articles

Illegal Wildlife Trade in Bangladesh and India: A Study of Comparative Laws

Poaching of wildlife and misuse of plant habitats were considered one of the local, small-scale activities carried out by opportunists or miscreants for the purpose of illegal trade or smuggling of certain species. However, the irony is that over the past few decades. It has progressively become a major contributor to illegal trade with a hotspot for serious crimes" including those involving wild animals. Wildlife trafficking has become a serious threat to ecosystem conservation, putting species at risk of extinction and causing loss of biodiversity. The main objective of this work is to ensure that Bangladesh's legal framework is compatible with international regimes, particularly in preventing wildlife trafficking. Additionally, the study undertook systematic research to assess Bangladesh's commitments, performance, and limitations and compare them with the situation in India. Bangladesh is classified as a riparian country under IUCN Red List criteria IV and V. The study reviewed books, journals, research articles, supplements, news, and analysis on both substantive and ancillary national laws, beyond the Wildlife Crime Convention, providing a comprehensive set of legal rules and principles governing interactions between traffickers and species.

Technical Efficiency of the Nile Perch Fishing Fleet on Lake Victoria: A Comparative Perspective on the Three Riparian Countries Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

Technical Efficiency of the Nile Perch Fishing Fleet on Lake Victoria: A Comparative Perspective on the Three Riparian Countries Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

Application of DPSIR model to ascertain driving forces and their impacts on the Volta basin

Managing trans-boundary water and its watershed areas is a challenging task. The riparian countries sharing the boundary may have different economic and national goals that can dictate the pressures exerted on water bodies and their catchments areas. The pressure will have dire consequences on the environment, the climate and the sustainability of the Volta River. This paper seeks to apply the Driving Forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework as a model to ascertain the driving forces and their impacts on the Black and the White sub-basins of the Volta River. The research was carried out through desk study of literature, reports and policies on the Volta basin as well as information from international bodies such as World Bank, United Nations, and European Union among others. The DPSIR framework thus established the state of the ecosystem, pressure exerted, impact and the responses to provide scientific basis for decision-making and address the impacts on the Volta River. The DPSIR framework was focused on Ghana and Burkina Faso due to their large share of the basin. Burkina Faso's share of the Volta basin area is 43 %, whereas, that of Ghana is 41.6 %. The use of DPSIR model will help stakeholders and policy makers in proper decision making. It was therefore recommended that there should be policy regulations to reduce the impact on the environment.

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality and Consumption in the Tigris River Basin (Mosul-Baghdad)

Abstract Iraq is one of a riparian country into the basin of Tigris River with (Turkey, Syria, and Iran). The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to climatic changes the rise of the demand on water. The meteorological data was used to estimate the water surplus and water deficit for the period (1990-2021), while the hydrological data was used to show the variation of the flow during the years due to climatic change on the Tigris River basin (2005-2021), and applying the SCS-CN method to estimate the surface runoff. The impact of climate change was estimated by calculating its effect on the physochemical characteristics in the river basin for the period (from January to December\2021) and compared it with standards specifications, in addition to comparing of amount of the water consumption in the Tigris River during the period (2017-2021). The results show a high ratio of water deficit in the downstream of the Tigris River basin due to decreasing the precipitation ratio in these areas. The Rainfall-Runoff-Depth was simulated using the SCS-CN method. The water quality parameters of Tigris River were within the standards of drinking water, except of TDS values at Tharthar-Tigris canal and Baghdad which exceeded the permissible limits. The results show an impact of climatic change on a Tigris River are different but it’s more effects in urban areas due to water consumption of the Tigris River.

Differences in drought characteristics, progression, and recession across ecosystem types in the pantropical region of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Exploring the development and impacts of drought across different ecosystems can offer new insights for mitigating the adverse effects of drought events. Using the pantropical Lancang-Mekong River Basin as the study region, we investigated the agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought characteristics and explored their drought progression and recession rates across four vegetation ecosystem types: tropical forests, subtropical forests, shrubs, and crops. We utilized newly developed drought indices based on the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset, GOSIF chlorophyll fluorescence data, and modified Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover data. The results showed that agricultural and hydrological droughts exhibited increasing trends from 2001 to 2021, whereas ecological drought displayed a decreasing trend over the same period. The cropland region experienced the fewest drought events, shortest drought durations, slowest progression rates, and lowest recession rates. By contrast, the two evergreen, broadleaf forest ecosystems (subtropical and tropical forests) experienced the highest number of drought events and fastest progression and recession rates. The findings suggest a trade-off relationship between vegetation resistance and recovery, where faster drought onset is associated with faster drought recession for ecological drought. Given the more severe challenges posed by agricultural and hydrological droughts, the riparian countries in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin should adopt proactive financial and management measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of these drought types. The insights gained from this study can inform the development of targeted strategies for drought monitoring, preparedness, and response across diverse ecosystems.

A legal analysis of historic waters under international law: Nile river dispute between Ethiopia and other riparian countries mainly Egypt

A legal analysis of historic waters under international law: Nile river dispute between Ethiopia and other riparian countries mainly Egypt

Global Water Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa and how to strengthen science-policy dialogues on transboundary governance and cooperation

The United Nations Water Conference 2023 highlighted the need for concrete actions to boost integrated water resources management for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and called for strategies to enhance cooperation among stakeholders. Technical cooperation between countries and institutions in transboundary systems, e.g., on environmental data collection, is an effective way to promote international diplomacy and prevent disputes between riparian states. Still, establishing collaborations to inform bilateral dialogues on the identification of environmental challenges, their causes, and development priorities may be a difficult task in itself. This is particularly true in the African context because of limited resources and lack of data. In this paper, we analyse the case of nine transboundary river basins in Sub-Saharan Africa to identify which water-management challenges are perceived as most important by the different riparian countries from a policy and scientific perspective. Our insights are based on the most up-to-date scientific papers, open access reports and technical literature, river basin authority’s strategy papers, projects’ summary reports, and national policy documents. We also complement these sources with the pieces of information we gained through collaborations with regional and local experts, and management bodies (such as river basin authorities). We highlight the current water-related conflicts and the gap between the priorities identified by the scientific community and different riparian countries on how to tackle hydro-climatic change and improve food and energy security, human and environmental health. Based on our experience, we discuss some keys to building trust among stakeholders, strengthening cooperation, and identifying shared water-governance measures in transboundary river basins. They are: (i) connect science and policy to provide sound knowledge for the right questions, (ii) value local knowledge and exploit the complementarity of different perspectives, (iii) consider multiple spatial scales and multi-level stakeholders to leave no one behind, (iv) promote a culture which values trade-offs and handles complexity, and (v) co-create data and knowledge to facilitate stakeholder dialogue from problem definition to intervention identification.

Cross-Border Water Management in Transboundary River conflicts in Palestine

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze cross-border water management in transboundary river conflicts in Palestine. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Research on cross-border water management in transboundary river conflicts stresses cooperation, trust-building, and integrated approaches for sustainable solutions. Equitable resource allocation, effective communication among riparian states, and international legal frameworks play vital roles in resolving disputes. Adaptive governance mechanisms are crucial for addressing changing hydrological conditions and political dynamics. Collaborative efforts are essential for managing transboundary river conflicts effectively. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Hydro-hegemony theory, institutional collective action (ICA) theory & environmental peacebuilding theory may be used to anchor future studies on cross-border water management in transboundary river conflicts in Palestine. Implementing integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches that involve stakeholders from all riparian countries can enhance practical efforts to address transboundary river conflicts. Developing robust legal and institutional frameworks at both national and international levels is crucial for resolving transboundary river conflicts and promoting cooperation.

Trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin

There have been intense conflicts over water resources between upstream and downstream countries in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) over the past years, primarily due to the trade-off relationship between hydropower and rice production. Great potential for transboundary cooperation has been shown, such as China’s emergency water release in 2016 to alleviate downstream severe drought. However, there is still a lack of systematic cooperation pattern. To address this issue, the study proposes a trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation, and then derives three key political factors including price weight, export rate, and terminal water level of reservoirs. Our results show that (1) The hydropower and rice production under the trade-driven model can approximate the centralized model, and the “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation is feasible. (2) For downstream countries, rice is the main product, and the rice production and economic benefit can be increased with a higher price weight or export rate. Compared to Thailand and Cambodia, Vietnam needs to engage in deeper trade with China. (3) For upstream China, hydropower is the main product, and the economic benefit of riparian countries can be increased with higher export rates. The discharge in the dry season is increased, which is driven by the trade of rice. Additionally, China’s initiative to reduce the terminal water level of reservoir Nuozhadu has the potential to further increase rice production in downstream countries. This study indicates that the transboundary cooperation in LMRB requires joint efforts of upstream and downstream countries.

Ecological implications of unintentional aquaculture escapees: an overview of risks, remediation strategies and knowledge gaps in the aquaculture sector of India and riparian East African countries

The global expansion of aquaculture has driven significant technological advancements, including raceways, Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture (IMTA) and marine offshore cages. However, unregulated aquaculture escapees pose a severe threat to aquatic biodiversity, acting as a potential time bomb for the entire ecosystem. Addressing this issue requires a comprehensive understanding of the impact of unintentional escapees on aquatic ecosystems, particularly in India and riparian East African countries (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania). Using an exploratory research design drawing from various peer-reviewed sources, this study outlines the dynamic growth of aquaculture in these countries, identifies high-impact escape incidents, and correlates risks and remedies with global cases, especially in regions such as Norway, Scotland, Ireland, Colombia, and the United States, where serious incidents of aquaculture escapees have been reported. The research categorizes aquaculture development trends, discusses mechanisms of escapee impact, proposes remedies, assesses methods and inferential strength, and highlights gaps in the existing literature. The study revealed complex ecological shifts caused by aquaculture escapees from invasive non-native fish species, affecting predation, competition, and genetic diversity. Escaped fish from aquaculture facilities pose a significant threat to aquatic biodiversity, especially in the study regions. The escalating risk of unintentional escapes was highlighted in India and three East African countries. To mitigate this, the study proposes integrating escapee management into national fisheries systems, amending fisheries laws, holding fish farmers accountable for aquaculture system failure, and developing comprehensive regulations for non-native species in aquaculture within the study regions. It is recommended to standardize the planning for aquaculture facilities and implement emergency plans, training, local mobilization and further research on the impact thresholds of aquaculture escapees in the study regions. Ecological education in aquaculture communities and the recognition of the role of translational scientists are crucial for the dissemination of knowledge. Urgent government action is needed to address unreported aquaculture escapes, preventing further ecosystem degradation and ensuring global aquaculture sustainability.

The Rhine Catchment: A Review of Sediment-Related Knowledge, Monitoring, and a Future Research Perspective

The Rhine River is affected by major human interventions affecting its morphology and sediment regime, which have severely changed its flow and sediment transport. While channelization has increased the sediment transport capacity in the free-flowing sections, the sediment retention behind dams has caused a bedload deficit downstream and has additionally intensified riverbed erosion. The resulting consequences range from the exposure of less erodible sediment layers that pose obstacles for navigation, to the scouring of infrastructure, the lowering of groundwater levels, and multiple negative ecological consequences. To optimize the efficiency of countermeasures, a coherent overview of all sediment-related activities and the state of knowledge on the Rhine catchment is required. That is why the present study aims to give a catchment-wide overview in this regard, identify knowledge gaps and proposing a future research programme. The methodological approach includes a comprehensive literature review and online interviews with experts from six riparian countries working in the fields of sediment research and management. Based on our investigations, we have derived several research topics, each consisting of research questions. Three project ideas were defined that should primarily be realized: (i) the influence of climate change and land use change on the sediment regime; (ii) alteration and improvement of the sediment balance and continuity, sediment transport, and morphology; and (iii) national and bilateral projects on sediment transport processes and management.

Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods

Abstract. Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides throughout the region. These rains drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in the second half of May 2020. The combination of high lake levels, consequent shoreline flooding, and flooding of tributary rivers caused hundreds of casualties and damage to housing, agriculture, and infrastructure in the riparian countries of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Media and government reports linked the heavy precipitation and floods to anthropogenic climate change, but a formal scientific attribution study has not been carried out so far. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and then investigate to what extent human-induced climate change influenced the probability and magnitude of the record-breaking lake levels and associated flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology. Using remote-sensing-based flood mapping tools, we find that more than 29 000 people living within a 50 km radius of the lake shorelines were affected by floods between April and July 2020. Precipitation in the basin was the highest recorded in at least 3 decades, causing lake levels to rise by 1.21 m between late 2019 and mid 2020. The flood, defined as a 6-month rise in lake levels as extreme as that observed in the lead-up to May 2020, is estimated to be a 63-year event in the current climate. Based on observations and climate model simulations, the best estimate is that the event has become more likely by a factor of 1.8 in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate and that in the absence of anthropogenic climate change an event with the same return period would have led lake levels to rise by 7 cm less than observed. Nonetheless, uncertainties in the attribution statement are relatively large due to large natural variability and include the possibility of no observed attributable change in the probability of the event (probability ratio, 95 % confidence interval 0.8–15.8) or in the magnitude of lake level rise during an event with the same return period (magnitude change, 95 % confidence interval 0–14 cm). In addition to anthropogenic climate change, other possible drivers of the floods and their impacts include human land and water management, the exposure and vulnerability of settlements and economic activities located in flood-prone areas, and modes of climate variability that modulate seasonal precipitation. The attribution statement could be strengthened by using a larger number of climate model simulations, as well as by quantitatively accounting for non-meteorological drivers of the flood and potential unforced modes of climate variability. By disentangling the role of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in the high-impact 2020 floods in the Lake Victoria basin, this paper contributes to a better understanding of changing hydrometeorological extremes in eastern Africa and the African Great Lakes region.

Impact of Türkiye’s Dam Construction on the Water Resources of the Transboundary Aras River Basin in Iran

Abstract The Aras River Basin, a significant transboundary river basin in the Caucasus region, is shared among four riparian countries, including Türkiye, Armenia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. Although positive measures have been taken to enhance water cooperation in this river basin, the Eastern Anatolia Project (DAP) and the hydraulic mission of Türkiye remain the primary factors that could potentially reverse the cooperative atmosphere of the basin and lead to conflict. In recent decades, Türkiye has utilised transboundary water resources to bolster its economic power, advance political strategies, and establish hydro-hegemony. Despite the significant Mega-Project and hydraulic mission of the upstream in the Aras River Basin, they have not received adequate attention in hydro politics studies. This study employs secondary sources to investigate Türkiye’s actions in the region. It discusses the implications of Türkiye’s projects on downstream riparian states in general and Iran’s water resources, including dam construction.

Short communication: Forecasting Shellfish Aquaculture Threats. An Earth Observation Derived Tool Aiming at Avoiding Microbiological Public Health Hazards

Shellfish aquaculture is of great importance in offering a sustainable food source, thus playing a major role towards achieving food security and nutrition, employment, and economic development in coastal areas. Mussel aquaculture, in particular, offers a substantial development opportunity for Black Sea riparian countries; however, a significant attention must be given to zoo-sanitary conditions and public health, considering the filter-feeding behaviour of these organisms. With the involvement of GFCM’s Aquaculture Demonstrative Center (hosted by NIMRD), the microbiological classification of bivalve mollusk production and relaying areas in Romania was performed. Yet, the regular monitoring of these areas is not enough to prevent accidental contamination of shellfish farms, in case a potential harmful discharge from a wastewater treatment plant occurs. In this contet, the goal of our research was to develop a prediction tool, focused on an early warning system of any possibly microbiologically loaded water discharge (Escherichia coli), using a downscaling of CMEMS Earth Observation data and in situ validation. The developed service module can give farmers the ability to predict a potential harmful outbreak and decide to harvest earlier or later and/or keep the mussels in a purification tank before marketing, in order to avoid any possible E. coli contaminated harvest to be put on the market involuntarily.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile

The role of institutionalized cooperation in transboundary basins in mitigating conflict potential over hydropower dams

Numerous dams are currently being built, many of them in transboundary basins. This can lead to disagreements and conflicts between riparian states, compromising not only environmental and social sustainability, but also regional stability and peace. Addressing such conflict risks, states have developed legal and governance mechanisms to address the conflict potential around dams, ranging from international water law principles to dam-specific provisions in basin treaties and from basin management plans to environmental impact assessment approaches. This paper assesses whether, how and to what extent such institutionalized governance mechanisms can prevent or mitigate conflict through both a global perspective (based on global datasets on international water treaties and basin organizations) and a case study perspective (conducting an in-depth analysis of three basins the Mekong, Zambezi, and Senegal river basins). It finds that globally there is a shortcoming in institutionalized cooperation mechanisms preventing and mitigating conflict risks over dams, but in those albeit rather few basins where they do exist, they can reduce conflict risks and thus benefit riparian people, ecosystems, and countries. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on the role of international water law and basin organizations in sustainably managing shared water resources and support calls for the strengthening of those.

Conflicts and Treaty over the Nile Basin. A Critical Review

The Nile, which flows through ten river basin nations, is the most crucial water channel in Africa's north-western region. The river receives its water from two key rivers: the White Nile in Burundi and the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The Atbara River, which commences in Sudan and runs north of Khartoum, connects the two rivers. The Nile River is the foundation of life and conflict. Conflicts between riparian countries that rely upon this common freshwater source have grown as a result of the river's deterioration and problems with water scarcity in the basin. The bilateral agreement that governs the allocation of water among the nations allocates the majority of the Nile river's flow to Egypt, which is the downstream country, and the remaining portion to Sudan, leaving the other nations that make up the Nile catchment deprived of determined shares. Although there is a chance for conflict amongst Nile riparians, current attempts to forge an all-encompassing regional agreement to control the river's use encourage riparians to work together rather than compete for water in the future. The Nile River would not have caused conflict amongst its riparian countries if it had been apportioned evenly. For millennia, the Nile's countries that border it have worked cooperatively to overcome problems throughout the basin in order to utilize the resource for the benefit of future generations. Various forms of international technological cooperation have been signed to halt conflicts and bring sustainable management to the Nile basin. This review addresses the conflicts and treaties in the Nile Basin between the Nile riparian countries. It also describes international collaboration, emphasizing the latest Nile Basin Initiative as an example of successful multilateral cooperation that could avert future conflicts over the Nile

An approach to complex transboundary water management in Central Asia: Evolutionary cooperation in transboundary basins under the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus

Water-related issues in transboundary basins are generally complicated by the challenges of climate change, the historical evolution of the basin characteristics, and the different interests of the riparian countries. Therefore, dealing with water-sharing and water cooperation problems among basin countries needs to be based on multi-factor system analysis in the context of regional water, energy, food (land) resources, and ecosystems. In the present study, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia, where transboundary water problems are extremely prominent and complex, was selected as the research area. Firstly, the characteristics of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus of the Aral Sea basin are analyzed. Then, based on the game theory, a multi-objective game model is constructed, and the multi-objective evolutionary game process and evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) of both the upstream and downstream countries are explored. Finally, the evolutionary stable strategy under the intervention of the basin commission is simulated. The results show that there are obvious reciprocal feedbacks among water, land, energy, and ecosystem in the Aral Sea basin, and the uneven distribution of natural resources, fragile ecosystems, and conflicting demands of multiple actors lead to the unstable evolution of the nexus. Driven by the maximization of upstream and downstream countries’ respective interests, the optimal stabilization strategy of the system cannot be realized. Whereas, the introduction of the basin commission intervention and its restraint mechanism is conducive to promoting cooperation and maximizing the overall benefits of the basin. The incentives and penalties of the basin commission have significant effects on whether the system can reach Pareto optimality, and higher incentive coefficient and penalty coefficient help the system converge to the ideal state more quickly. The evolution of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus based on the perspective of the whole basin can provide theoretical support for dealing with the transboundary water conflicts, and the cooperation strategy aiming at maximizing the overall benefits of the basin can provide decision-making basis for promoting transboundary water cooperation and synergistic development of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus.

Evaluation of future climatology and its uncertainty under SSP scenarios based on a bias processing procedure: A case study of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

The Lancang-Mekong River is the most important international river in Southeast Asia, and its water resources are invaluable for the survival of the inhabitants of the basin, while the climatic conditions have a significant impact on the production and livelihoods of the riparian countries. In this study, future climate change in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) was projected based on precipitation and temperature from CMIP6. First, a bias processing procedure was established to correct the initial bias of climate models using the Daily Bias Correction (DBC) method, and the performance of equal weighted averaging (EW) and Bayesian mode averaging (BMA) of multi-model ensembles was compared. The characteristics of future precipitation and temperature changes were projected in terms of mean climatology, seasonal variation and extreme events, respectively, from which the future trends of the four weather extremes (dry-cold, dry-hot, wet-cold and wet-hot) were projected. Evaluation based on mean climatology, daily frequency distribution, temporal change and its bias showed that the climate bias correction procedure has good performance. It was found that future precipitation in the LMRB will increase by 50–120 mm in the near future (2031–2050) and 150–400 mm in the far future (2061–2090), with higher increases in the upper Mekong River Basin (MRB), Lower MRB and Mekong Delta than in the Lancang River Basin (LRB) and middle MRB. Future increase in precipitation will occur mainly from June to October, while April and May will see a decrease by 10–30 mm, and the number of heavy precipitation days (R25, daily precipitation exceeding 25 mm) will increase by about 5 days in the eastern part of the lower and middle MRB. The mean temperature will increase by 1–3 °C in most parts of the LMRB, with the LRB experiencing an increase of about 3 °C higher than in the MRB. Future maximum and minimum daily temperatures will increase by 1–2 °C in the near future and by 2–5 °C in the far future. Dry-hot days will increase by about 20 days in the lower and middle MRB, and wet-hot days will increase significantly in the MRB, by 30–80 days in the near future and by 50–100 days in the far future.

Water quantity–quality assessment in the transboundary river basin under climate change: a case study

Abstract This study combined hydrological and water quality simulation models with a water resources planning model to project future water supply conditions under the dam construction in the Harirud River, located at the Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and the Iran border. The sustainability requirements and possible conflicts among riparian countries were assessed under climate change and future development in Afghanistan's upstream. The water quantity and quality of the Doosti Dam Basin on the Harirud River were investigated based on a contemporary time (1955–2015) to predict the future condition (2020–2099). The representative concentration pathway scenarios were applied based on five bias-corrected climate models. Results showed that most areas of the study area experienced an increase in temperature (1.5–3.8°C) and a decrease in precipitation (19–24%). The Doosti Dam inflow decreased by about 70% after the Salma Dam construction, and the reliability and sustainability of agricultural water supply in Iran and Turkmenistan will reduce to less than 3% under the representative concentration pathways 8.5 climate change scenario. The results show that the Doosti Dam is not a reliable source to supply the domestic water demand of Mashhad, the second most important city in Iran.