Alex Davidson, senior vice-president, exploration of the major gold mining company Barrick Gold, in a presentation to the Producers & Developers of Canada (PDAC) Annual Convention last March, offered an analysis of the mining industry’s consolidation over the last few years which has an uncanny resemblance to the oil industry experience. We publish a printed version of the paper. The last half decade or so has been one of the harshest stretches for exploration that I’ve seen in 30 years’ experience. The main culprits are obvious: low metal prices across the board, whether in gold, copper, nickel or other metals, and the flight of speculative capital along with investor confidence. But these alone don’t account for all the changes we’ve been through. Consolidation is also impacting the picture, both in combination with low prices and apart from them. These factors have contributed to a decline in exploration spending that promises to have continued effect on production supply going forward. Let me start with an overview of consolidation and the forces driving it, how it’s reshaping the industry, and then assess its impact on exploration. As we’ll see, while low metal prices may have helped start the consolidation wave, rising prices don’t mean an end to consolidation, or its effects on exploration. While my observations can be applied to the mining industry in general, my examples will be mainly drawn from the gold industry, which I know best. This wave of consolidation started in 2000, and it started mainly with the base metal companies: Billiton bought Rio Algom, Phelps Dodge bought Cyprus Amax, Grupo Mexico got Asarco and Rio Tinto got North. The wave picked up momentum through 2001 with the BHP Billiton merger and then the gold companies picked up on the trend. Since mid-2001 there have been over 14 company mergers/acquisitions and over 10 mine transactions in the precious metals industry.