Rift Valley Fever Transmission Research Articles

Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.

Modeling Rift Valley fever transmission: insights from fractal-fractional dynamics with the Caputo derivative

<abstract><p>The infection caused by Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus is a dangerous vector-borne disease found in humans, domestic, and wild animals. It is transferred through insect vectors to ruminant host and then spread through direct contact of infected animals with their body fluid or organs. In this paper, a fractal-fractional model for the transmission of RVF in the Caputo's sense was presented. We analyzed the model and determined the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix technique, indicated by $ \mathcal{R}_0 $. The global sensitivity technique is used for the sensitivity test of $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ to find out the most sensitive input-factors to the reproduction parameter $ \mathcal{R}_0 $. The existence and uniqueness results of the proposed fractal-fractional model were established. Then, we presented the fractal-fractional dynamics of the proposed RVF model through a novel numerical scheme under the fractal-fractional Caputo operator. In the end, the recommended model of RVF was highlighted numerically with the variation of different input parameters of the system. The key factors of the system were highlighted to the policymakers for the control and prevention of the infection.</p></abstract>

Understanding knowledge, attitude and perception of Rift Valley fever in Baringo South, Kenya: A cross-sectional study.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral hemorrhagic disease that affects humans and livestock. In Kenya, the disease has spread to new areas like Baringo County, with a growing realization that the epidemiology of the virus may also include endemic transmission. Local knowledge of a disease in susceptible communities is a major driver of prevention and control efforts. A cross-sectional survey using a semi-structured questionnaire was conducted in five locations of Baringo South that had reported RVF cases during the last outbreak, to determine the knowledge, attitude and perception of the predominantly agro-pastoralist community to RVF. Knowledge of RVF clinical signs, transmission, risk factors and prevention all contributed to the total knowledge score. Additionally, the respondents' attitude was based on their awareness of the threat posed by RVF and preparedness to take appropriate measures in case of suspected infection. Out of the 300 respondents, 80% had heard about the disease, however, only 9.6% attained at least half of the total knowledge score on RVF. Nevertheless, 86% recognized the threat it posed and knew the appropriate action to take in suspected human and livestock cases (positive attitude). Factors significantly associated with a better knowledge of RVF included higher education level, being Maasai, higher socio-economic index, old age and history of RVF in household members and livestock. Being Maasai and a higher socio-economic index were significantly associated with a positive attitude. The low level of knowledge exhibited by the respondents could be due to progressive loss of interest and information associated with a prolonged inter-outbreak period. This calls for regular awareness campaigns. More emphasis should also be put on educating communities on the role played by the mosquito vector in the epidemiology of RVF. The most promising routes of disseminating this information are radio and community gatherings.

Risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus seropositivity in one-humped camels (Camelus dromedarius) and pastoralist knowledge and practices in Northern Nigeria

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a complex emerging arboviral hemorrhagic disease that causes significant illness in animals and humans. Camel trade across the land borders between Nigeria and the Niger Republic occurs frequently and poses a significant risk for RVF transmission to pastoralists and traders. We carried a cross-sectional study between November 2016 and April 2017 in two northern States (Katsina and Jigawa) known for camel trade in Nigeria to investigate the seroprevalence and potential risk factors for RVFV occurrence. We collected 720 sera and administered questionnaire to pastoralists. We used the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA) to determine the previous exposure to RVFV infection. We retrieved environmental information from public data sources that might explain RVFV seropositivity at the LGA level. To asses potential risk factors,we categorized LGAs with RVFV as "1" and those without a case" 0". We fitted a logistic model to the data and estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. An overall 19.9% prevalence was reported among camel herd—the highest seropositivity (33.3%) was recorded in SuleTankarkar LGA. In the multivariable model, only rain-fed croplands was significantly associated with RVFV antibodies occurrence p = 0.048 (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76–0.99). Only a minority of the respondents, 19.3% (n = 17/88), knew that RVF is zoonotic. Separation of healthy animals from the infected animals was carried out by 53.4% (47/88) pastoralists while 59.1% (52/88) pastoralists still use ethnoveterinary practices to control or mitigate disease outbreaks. Our study demonstrates the presence of RVFV antibodies among camel in Nigeria and the associated risk factors. These findings highlight the need for enhancing surveillance and control efforts and the public health education of camel pastoralists. Further investigation to unravel the zoonotic transmission potential to pastoralists and other animal species is pertinent.

Rift Valley fever knowledge, mitigation strategies and communication preferences among male and female livestock farmers in Eastern Province, Rwanda.

The Government of Rwanda reported an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Eastern Province in 2018. To respond to the outbreak, vaccination and education campaigns about the disease were carried out. Because RVF cases continue to be detected in Rwanda and the disease impacts livelihoods and health, accurate knowledge and communication are imperative. The objectives of this study were to evaluate knowledge and risk perceptions of RVF transmission among livestock farmers in Nyagatare District, Eastern Province, Rwanda, and to compare RVF knowledge, risk perceptions, and farming practices between male and female livestock farmers. This cross-sectional, quantitative study was conducted in selected sectors of Nyagatare District in the Eastern Province of Rwanda in June 2019. A 34-question survey was used to ask about demographics, livestock ownership, risk perceptions about zoonotic diseases and livestock management, RVF knowledge, preferred communication sources and information sharing strategies, and protective strategies for RVF mitigation while working with livestock. Livestock farmers were interviewed at three milk collection centers, two village meeting points, a farm cooperative meeting, and during door-to-door visits in villages. In total, 123 livestock farmers were interviewed. The survey found that most livestock farmers lacked knowledge about epizootic and zoonotic transmission of RVF, more male livestock farmers were familiar with RVF and risk mitigation strategies, and female livestock farmers are not viewed as reliable sources of information. Additionally, most livestock farmers had not vaccinated their animals against RVF despite past vaccination campaigns. Radio was the most popular communication channel. These findings show that RVF knowledge and information sharing are inadequate among livestock farmers in Eastern Province. Therefore, vaccination and education campaigns may need to be reevaluated within the context of these trends in order to prepare for future RVF outbreaks.

A One Health perspective to identify environmental factors that affect Rift Valley fever transmission in Gezira state, Central Sudan

BackgroundRift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic viral vector-borne disease that affects both animals and humans and leads to severe economic consequences. RVF outbreaks are triggered by a favorable environment and flooding, which enable mosquitoes to proliferate and spread the virus further. RVF is endemic to Africa and has spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen. There is great concern that RVF may spread to previously unaffected geographic regions due to climate change. We aimed to better understand the spatiotemporal pattern of the 2007 RVF outbreak at the human–animal–environment interface and to determine environmental factors that may have effects on RVF occurrence in Gezira state, Sudan.Materials and methodsWe compiled epidemiological, environmental, and spatiotemporal data across time and space using remote sensing and a geographical information system (GIS). The epidemiological data included 430 RVF human cases as well as human and animal population demographic data for each locality. The cases were collected from 41 locations in Gezira state. The environmental data represent classified land cover during 2007, the year of the RVF outbreak, and the average of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 6 months of 2007 is compared with those of 2010 and 2014, when there was no RVF outbreak. To determine the effect of the environmental factors such as NDVI, soil type, and RVF case’s location on the Blue Nile riverbank on RVF incidence in Gezira state, a multilevel logistic regression model was carried out.ResultsWe found that the outbreak in Gezira state occurred as a result of interaction among animals, humans, and the environment. The multilevel logistic regression model (F = 43,858, df = 3, p = 0.000) explained 23% of the variance in RVF incidence due to the explanatory variables. Notably, soil type (β = 0.613, t = 11.284, p = 0.000) and NDVI (β = − 0.165, t = − 3.254, p = 0.001) were the explanatory environmental factors that had significant effects on RVF incidence in 2007 in Gezira state, Sudan.ConclusionsPrecise remote sensing and the GIS technique, which rely on environmental indices such as NDVI and soil type that are satellite-derived, can contribute to establishing an early warning system for RVF in Sudan.Future preparedness and strengthening the capacity of regional laboratories are necessary for early notification of outbreaks in animals and humans.

Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics

Summary Objectives: To summarize current research in the field of Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics. Methods: The complete 2016 literature concerning public health and epidemiology informatics has been searched in PubMed and Web of Science, and the returned references were reviewed by the two section editors to select 14 candidate best papers. These papers were then peer-reviewed by external reviewers to allow the editorial team an enlightened selection of the best papers. Results: Among the 829 references retrieved from PubMed and Web of Science, three were finally selected as best papers. The first one compares Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia as tools for Influenza surveillance. The second paper presents a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for mapping suitable areas for Rift Valley fever transmission in Eastern Africa. The last paper evaluates the factors associated with the visit of Facebook pages devoted to Public Health Communication. Conclusions: Surveillance is still a productive topic in public health informatics but other very important topics in public health are appearing.

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990–91 and 2008–09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics.

Objectives: To summarize current research in the field of Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics. Methods: The complete 2016 literature concerning public health and epidemiology informatics has been searched in PubMed and Web of Science, and the returned references were reviewed by the two section editors to select 14 candidate best papers. These papers were then peer-reviewed by external reviewers to allow the editorial team an enlightened selection of the best papers. Results: Among the 829 references retrieved from PubMed and Web of Science, three were finally selected as best papers. The first one compares Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia as tools for Influenza surveillance. The second paper presents a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for mapping suitable areas for Rift Valley fever transmission in Eastern Africa. The last paper evaluates the factors associated with the visit of Facebook pages devoted to Public Health Communication. Conclusions: Surveillance is still a productive topic in public health informatics but other very important topics in public health are appearing.

Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa.

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730–0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a Rift Valley fever model

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease with pronounced health and economic impacts on domestic animals and humans in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Using techniques of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (both local derivatives and sampling-based methods) of a mathematical model for RVF transmission in livestock by two population of mosquitoes (Aedes and Culex). We systematically investigate the relative importance of each model parameter for both disease epidemic and endemic activities. The relationship between vertical transmission and basic reproduction number reveals that during epidemic activities vertical transmission accelerates the course of the outbreak as it increases the size of infected vectors and reduces the duration of the outbreak. However, during endemic activities, vertical transmission exceeding 20% highly influences the basic reproduction number and disease persistence. Results of both local and global sensitivity analysis agrees that R0 is most sensitive to vertical transmission, probability of transmission from Aedes mosquitoes to host, vector initial density and number of bites an Aedes mosquito would want to bite a host and number of bites that a host can sustain. This suggests that reducing vector population and enhancing control intervention in livestock is a viable preventive strategy. Both time varying and time invariant sensitivity analysis of disease prevalence governed by both asymptomatic and symptomatic state variables indicate that the most significant parameters are: number of bites that an Aedes mosquito would want to bite a host, number of bites a host can sustain, probability of transmission from host to an Aedes mosquito and the host death rate. Furthermore, time varying sensitivity analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the effects of each model input parameter at all important stages of the epidemic.

Lay perceptions of risk factors for Rift Valley fever in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya.

BackgroundHuman behavioral factors have been found to be central in the transmission of Rift Valley fever. Consumption of contaminated meat and milk in particular have been identified as one of the key risk factors for the transmission of Rift Valley fever in humans. In pastoral communities, livestock is the main source of livelihood from which many benefits such as food as well as economic and cultural services are derived. Zoonotic diseases therefore have a great impact on pastoral communities livelihoods. However, lay perceptions regarding the transmission of these diseases including Rift Valley fever hampers their effective control. This study investigated the lay perceptions of risks for Rift Valley fever transmission in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya.MethodsA qualitative study was carried out in Ijara district, Kenya which was one of the hotspots of Rift Valley during the 2006/2007 outbreak. Data were collected using focus group discussions and narratives guided by checklists. Eight focus group discussions consisting of 83 participants and six narratives were conducted. Data was transcribed, coded and analysed according to Emergent themes.ResultsThe participants reported that they had experienced Rift Valley fever in their livestock especially sheep and in humans both in 1997/1998 and 2006/2007. However, they believed that infections in humans occurred as a result of mosquito bites and had little to do with their consumption of meat, milk and blood from infected livestock. The participants in this study indicated that they had heard of the risks of acquiring the disease through consumption of livestock products but their experiences did not tally with the information they had received hence to them, Rift Valley fever was not transmissible through their dietary practices.ConclusionsThough the communities in this region were aware of Rift Valley fever, they did not have elaborate information regarding the disease transmission dynamics to humans. To avoid misconception about transmission of the disease, intervention strategies, require to be accompanied by comprehensive explanations of the dynamics of its transmission. It is necessary to develop appropriate interventions that take into consideration, lay perceptions of risk factors for the disease and communities’ livelihood strategies.

Rift Valley fever potential mosquito vectors and their infection status in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonotic disease. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been isolated from more than 40 species of mosquitoes from eight genera. This study was conducted to determine the abundance of potential mosquito vectors and their RVFV infection status in Ngorongoro District of northern Tanzania.Methods: Adult mosquitoes were collected outdoors using the CDC light traps baited with carbon dioxide in five randomly selected villages namely, Meshili, Malambo, Osinoni, Endulen and Nainokanoka. The study was carried out towards the end of rainy season in May 2013. The traps were set in proximity to potential breeding sites and cattle kraals. The collected mosquitoes were identified to genus and species using morphological keys. They were tested for RVFV RNA using real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR).Results: A total of 2,094 adult mosquitoes belonging to three genera and nine species were collected. Most of them (87.5%) were collected in Meshili, followed by Malambo (8.2%) and Osinoni (4%) villages. No single mosquito was collected in Nainokanoka or Endulen. The nine species collected were Culex pipiens complex, Cx. antennatus, Cx. tigripes, Cx. annulioris, Cx. cinereus, Anopheles arabiensis, An. squamosus, An. pharoensis and Mansonia uniformis. No RVFV RNA was detected in the mosquito specimens.Conclusion: Various RVFV potential mosquito species were collected from the study villages. These mosquito vectors were heterogeneously distributed in the district suggesting a variation in RVF transmission risk in the study area.

Inter-epidemic acquisition of Rift Valley fever virus in humans in Tanzania.

BackgroundIn East Africa, epidemics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) occur in cycles of 5–15 years following unusually high rainfall. RVF transmission during inter-epidemic periods (IEP) generally passes undetected in absence of surveillance in mammalian hosts and vectors. We studied IEP transmission of RVF and evaluated the demographic, behavioural, occupational and spatial determinants of past RVF infection.MethodologyBetween March and August 2012 we collected blood samples, and administered a risk factor questionnaire among 606 inhabitants of 6 villages in the seasonally inundated Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. ELISA tests were used to detect RVFV IgM and IgG antibodies in serum samples. Risk factors were examined by mixed effects logistic regression.FindingsRVF virus IgM antibodies, indicating recent RVFV acquisition, were detected in 16 participants, representing 2.6% overall and in 22.5% of inhibition ELISA positives (n = 71). Four of 16 (25.0%) IgM positives and 11/71 (15.5%) of individuals with inhibition ELISA sero-positivity reported they had had no previous contact with host animals. Sero-positivity on inhibition ELISA was 11.7% (95% CI 9.2–14.5) and risk was elevated with age (odds ratio (OR) 1.03 per year; 95% CI 1.01–1.04), among milkers (OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.23–3.91), and individuals eating raw meat (OR 4.17; 95% CI 1.18–14.66). Households keeping livestock had a higher probability of having members with evidence of past infection (OR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.42–6.48) than those that do not keep livestock.ConclusionThere is inter-epidemic acquisition of RVFV in Kilombero Valley inhabitants. In the wake of declining malaria incidence, these findings underscore the need for clinicians to consider RVF in the differential diagnosis for febrile illnesses. Several types of direct contact with livestock are important risk factors for past infection with RVFV in this study’s population. However, at least part of RVFV transmission appears to have occurred through bites of infected mosquitoes.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Decision making environment on Rift Valley fever in Ferlo (Senegal).

The Rift Valley fever (RVF), which first appeared in Kenya in 1912, is an anthropozoonosis widespread in tropical areas. In Senegal, it is particularly felt in the Ferlo area where a strong presence of ponds shared by humans, cattle and vectors is noted. As part of the studies carried out on the environmental factors which favour its start and propagation, the focus of this paper is put on the decision making process to evaluate the impacts, the interactions and to make RVF monitoring easier. The present paper proposes a model based on data mining techniques and dedicated to trade experts. This model integrates all the involved data and the results of the analyses made on the characteristics of the surrounding ponds. This approach presents some advantage in revealing the relationship between environmental factors and RVF transmission vectors for space-time epidemiology monitoring purpose.

Rift Valley Fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions.

Four large outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) occurred in Mauritania in 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2012 which caused lots of animal and several human deaths. We investigated rainfall and vegetation conditions that might have impacted on RVF transmission over the affected regions. Our results corroborate that RVF transmission generally occurs during the months of September and October in Mauritania, similarly to Senegal. The four outbreaks were preceded by a rainless period lasting at least a week followed by heavy precipitation that took place during the second half of the rainy season. First human infections were generally reported three to five weeks later. By bridging the gap between meteorological forecasting centers and veterinary services, an early warning system might be developed in Senegal and Mauritania to warn decision makers and health services about the upcoming RVF risk.

An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Impact of Herd Mobility on the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal)

Vector-borne diseases are highly sensitive to environment and to environmental changes. Rift Valley Fever (RFV) is a mosquito-borne zootic virus associated with severe diseases in human beings and economic consequences to livestock sector. Animal and human movements have a fundamental impact on RVF transmission. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the use of mathematics and agent based models to represent and analyze the dynamic of RFV transmission. However, no previous study has taken into consideration animal herds’ mobility and precipitation factors to understand the disease spread. This limitation underlines the necessity to use computational model approach based on multi-agent system in the study of vector-borne diseases transmission and diffusion. In this paper, a multi-agent system combining conceptual model expressiveness is used to study animal herds’ mobility and the precipitation parameter impact on the Rift Valley Fever outbreak in Ferlo Barkedji in Northern Senegal. Simulation scenarios with various parameters, including rain quality, hosts, vectors, camp dispersal around ponds, etc., are unrolled. The different results we have obtained show that the evolution of the number of infected hosts and infected vectors depend on the degree of animal herds’ mobility and on precipitations. Our model provides a framework that permits predicting the spread of the disease associated with the mobility of animal herds.

Inter-epidemic transmission of Rift Valley fever in livestock in the Kilombero River Valley, Tanzania: a cross-sectional survey.

BackgroundIn recent years, evidence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission during inter-epidemic periods in parts of Africa has increasingly been reported. The inter-epidemic transmissions generally pass undetected where there is no surveillance in the livestock or human populations. We studied the presence of and the determinants for inter-epidemic RVF transmission in an area experiencing annual flooding in southern Tanzania.MethodologyA cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted in randomly selected cattle, sheep and goats in the Kilombero river valley from May to August 2011, approximately four years after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak in Tanzania. The exposure status to RVF virus (RVFV) was determined using two commercial ELISA kits, detecting IgM and IgG antibodies in serum. Information about determinants was obtained through structured interviews with herd owners.FindingsAn overall seroprevalence of 11.3% (n = 1680) was recorded; 5.5% in animals born after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak and 22.7% in animals present during the outbreak. There was a linear increase in prevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts. Nine inhibition-ELISA positive samples were also positive for RVFV IgM antibodies indicating a recent infection. The spatial distribution of seroprevalence exhibited a few hotspots. The sex difference in seroprevalence in animals born after the previous epidemic was not significant (6.1% vs. 4.6% for females and males respectively, p = 0.158) whereas it was significant in animals present during the outbreak (26.0% vs. 7.8% for females and males respectively, p<0.001). Animals living >15 km from the flood plain were more likely to have antibodies than those living <5 km (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04–3.56). Species, breed, herd composition, grazing practices and altitude were not associated with seropositivity.ConclusionThese findings indicate post-epidemic transmission of RVFV in the study area. The linear increase in seroprevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts implies a constant exposure and presence of active foci transmission preceding the survey.