Rice Prices Research Articles

Evaluating Temporal Price Behaviour of Rice in Bangladesh

Aims: The agriculture sector in Bangladesh is predominantly centered on rice production and it is the staple food. High prices of rice can affect the consumers adversely. This study aimed to analyze the annual price dynamics of rice in Bangladesh. Study Design: The study was based on secondary time series data of prices of different category of rice at wholesale and retail level. Both nominal and deflated prices were sued to analyze for achieving the objectives of the study. Place and Duration of Study: Secondary time series data of price for different category of rice from country as a whole from 1991 to 2021 were used to assess its annual price behavior. Methodology: Descriptive statistics were employed to assess the annual price fluctuations, while linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual price trends. Results: The analysis revealed significant variations in the annual wholesale and retail prices of rice (both fine and coarse). Notably, coarse rice exhibited greater price fluctuations compared to fine rice in both wholesale and retail markets. Price fluctuation at retail level for fine rice is greater than the wholesale level but in case of coarse rice, price fluctuation at retail level is lower than wholesale level. The study further found that the wholesale price trend for fine rice increased more sharply than that of coarse rice, a pattern that was also reflected in retail prices. Conclusion: The study indicates that over the study period, the price of fine rice experienced a more pronounced fluctuate and increase compared to coarse rice.

The Effect of Food Price Stabilization on Inflation in West Nusa Tenggara 2019-2023

One of the primary contributors to the inflation rate in West Nusa Tenggara Province is the fluctuation of prices for food commodities. The objective of this study is to examine the extent to which fluctuations in food commodity prices, including those of rice, red chili, and shallots, contribute to inflationary trends in West Nusa Tenggara. The data used is monthly data on inflation and food commodity prices from 2019-2023 obtained from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics), DKP (Food Security Agency), and the Agriculture Office of West Nusa Tenggara Province. The analysis method used is vector autoregression (VAR), which includes stationarity test, VAR stability test, optimal lag test, cointegration test, VAR estimation, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition. The results of this study indicate that in the short term premium rice prices, curly red chili prices, and shallots do not affect inflation. Conversely, in the long run, the variable price of shallots does not affect inflation, while the variable price of premium rice and curly red chili prices exert an influence on inflationary pressures in West Nusa Tenggara Province. The Variance Decomposition Test indicates that the price of curly red chili contributes 37.24 percent to inflation in the fifth period, while premium rice has an effect of 8.66 percent on inflation in the second period and shallots have an effect of 7.93 percent on inflation in the fifth period.

ANALISIS HARGA PANGAN POKOK TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN DI INDONESIA

Food security ensures that sufficient, high-quality food is accessible to everyone for optimal consumption. Rising food prices can severely impact food security, especially for economically vulnerable groups. This research investigates the relationship between staple food prices and food security in Indonesia, focusing on factors like rice energy intake, egg protein intake, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, and regional conditions on Java, Bali, and other islands. Data from all Indonesian provinces for 2018-2020 is analyzed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method. The Food Security Index (IKP) comes from the National Food Agency’s Food Security Index Book, and food price data is sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). Control data such as GRDP per capita is from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), while rice energy and egg protein intake data are from the Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Consumption Directory. The analysis reveals that rising rice prices from 2018 to 2020 significantly negatively affected food security. The study recommends evaluating rice price policies to maintain stability and enhance food accessibility. Similar evaluations for egg prices are also suggested to ensure protein availability for the community.

Awareness and Implications of the Rice Tariffication Law (Republic Act 11203) among Irrigation Association Members in Dipolog City, Philippines

The Rice Tariffication Law, enacted in the Philippines in 2019, aimed to reduce rice prices for consumers while supporting rice growers through various assistance measures. This study assessed the awareness and implications of the Rice Tariffication Law (Republic Act 11203) among irrigated rice farmers in selected barangays of Dipolog City, Philippines. Interviews with 82 farmers revealed that although 71% were aware of the law, their understanding of its objectives (71%) and key provisions (70%-77%) was limited. Nevertheless, all participants received government assistance in the form of farm mechanization, fertilizers, financial aid, and seeds. Farmers unanimously acknowledged both the positive and negative effects of the law. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference in the average income per hectare of rice farmers before and after the law's implementation. The study recommends educational initiatives, particularly through institutions like Jose Rizal Memorial State University, to enhance farmers' understanding and dissemination of the law's objectives and key provisions.

Strategi Pemerintah Kota Surabaya dalam Menghadapi Kenaikan Harga Beras

The phenomenon of rising rice prices often occurs due to several influencing factors, one of which comes from the climate and the existence of a bumper harvest. In addition, higher market demand than production is also one of the causes. Surabaya as a city that is predicated as a consumer rather than a producer of rice is very careful in maintaining the existing rice supply. Public panic over the increase in rice prices has led the government to issue programs as a strategy to overcome it, one of which is consistently implemented to date is the Cheap Market Movement. The purpose of this research is to describe the government's strategy in overcoming the price of rice based on the five indicators of Geoff Mulgan's theory. This research uses descriptive qualitative research methods by taking results from interviews as primary data and secondary data obtained from literature reviews such as articles, journals, and relevant references. The results of this study reveal that the Cheap Market Movement program and the existence of SPHP rice can help people's lives and achieve the success rate of strategies issued by the Surabaya city government, especially by the Food Security and Agriculture Office.

Dinamika Harga Beras di Kota Kendari: Analisis Fluktuasi 2015-2023

Food price stability is one of the essential issues in the direction of government policy. Price uncertainty at the farm level and the guarantee of food price stability at the consumer level are unresolved problems. This study aims to analyze rice price fluctuations in Kendari City from 2015 to 2024. The research was conducted in Kendari City in March - May 2024. The research used secondary data, namely time series data on rice prices in Kendari City from 2015 to 2023. The research data collection technique is a literature study, namely collecting time series data on rice prices in Kendari City sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and related agencies. The research variable is the price of rice in Kendari City from 2015 to 2023. Data analysis used to analyze rice price fluctuations in Kendari City is the Coefficient of Variation (CV). The results showed that rice price fluctuations in Kendari City from 2015 to 2023 were low, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3%. The highest rice price condition in Kendari City occurred in 2023, which amounted to IDR 13,321 per kilogram. At the same time, the lowest rice price condition occurred in 2015, which amounted to IDR 9,738 per kilogram. Therefore, government policy intervention is needed to stabilize food prices, especially rice in Kendari City.

Analisis Determinan Volume Impor Gandum di Indonesia

Wheat is one of the food commodities consumed by the Indonesian people. The need for wheat in Indonesia from year to year tends to increase but is almost entirely met through imports and makes Indonesia one of the world's largest wheat importers. Dependence on food commodities from the import side has a huge risk for national food security because in addition to the increasingly limited foreign exchange owned, there is also uncertainty in terms of quantity and price. The purpose of this study is to find out the factors that affect wheat imports in Indonesia. The variables in this study are foreign exchange reserves, international wheat prices, domestic rice prices, and the US dollar exchange rate. This study uses secondary data with a quantitative approach using 34 data. Data analysis techniques using descriptive statistical analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study show 1) Foreign Exchange Reserves, International Wheat Prices, Domestic Rice Prices, and the US Dollar Exchange Rate simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 2) Foreign Exchange Reserves partially have a positive and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 3) International Wheat Prices partially have a negative and significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia, 4) Domestic Rice Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate have no significant effect on the Volume of Wheat Imports in Indonesia.

Application of K-Means Clustering and OR-Tools to Optimize Rice Distribution: A Case Study of Perum Bulog Indonesia

Food security is one of the Indonesian government's priority policies aimed at maintaining economic and political stability. To ensure the nutritional needs of its population are met, the government requires sufficient food availability distributed nationwide at stable and affordable prices. Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia. According to data from the National Food Agency, rice consumption in Indonesia is very high, averaging 139 kilograms per capita per year, with a dependency rate of 97%. In response to food security challenges, the Indonesian government has entrusted the Food Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP) for rice to Perum BULOG, a State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) specializing in food logistics. To optimize distribution to Perum BULOG’s retailers, called Rumah Pangan Kita (RPK), efficient routes and transport capacity are prioritized. Therefore, this paper proposes an approach using the Heterogeneous Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (HCVRP) to enhance distribution efficiency and reduce delivery costs. By employing the K-Means algorithm to cluster RPK addresses and Guided Local Search via OR-Tools to determine suitable transportation types, this study successfully identified optimal delivery routes for each cluster and corresponding vehicle types. The results demonstrated a reduction in delivery costs of up to 21%, significantly improving the efficiency of the SPHP rice distribution process. This outcome ultimately supports rice availability and price stability, crucial for maintaining food security in Indonesia.

How I Learned to Stabilize Rice Prices, and Why: A Retrospective Essay

This paper for the 20th anniversary special issue of the Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development traces the evolution of my thinking on what to do about food price instability. Now that feeding the world is again front-page news, I am trying to figure out what pieces of my own thinking over the past half century might provide guidance on how to proceed. The world food system is under great stress as I write (early 2024), but this is probably a good time for some historical perspective as well as active engagement from people with knowledge of on-the-ground realities. I apologize in advance for the extensive listing of my own publications, but their story is my story.

원주이씨 해남문중의 『용하도록』과 지역사 정보

In this article, we analyzed the 『Yonghadorok(用下都錄)』 owned by WonjuLee clan(原州李氏) and examined the area of Durak(斗落) in the Haenam region , the problem of place names, the opening of Mokpo Port and the rice crop house, and the drought in the Haenam region during the Japanese colonial period. The average area of 1 durak in 『Yonghadorok』 is 214 pyeong(坪), which is larger than the average of 200 pyeong in Haenam Country. And out of the 12 places analyzed, there are as many as 4 places that deviate from 200 pyeong to 10% error of 180~220 pyeong, and among them, 2 places are close to 300 pyeong. Thus, it can be seen that even within the same municipality there was a great deviation in the area of 1 durak. 『Yonghadorok』 conveys micro-place names that have not been recorded in the existing research. Accordingly, the analysis of Yonghagi(用下記) can be said to be local history information that can supplement the study of place names at dong(洞) levels. On the other hand, if you look at the 『Yonghadorok』, the same place name is written in different Chinese characters depending on the writer, which shows that even the local literate class was not well versed in the origin of the place names in their own region. The Haenam(海南) area belongs to the Mokpo cultural area, where Mokpo Port can be easily accessed by ship. With the opening of the port of Mokpo Port, the price of rice skyrocketed. Specifically, the price of rice in Haenam and Yeongam(靈巖) region soared 2 times and 2.42 times, respectively. The crop status of Yonghagi is an indirect data that can grasp the drought at the city and county level as a time series. As a result of the analysis, through in 1901, 1912, 1938, and 1942~1943, when droughts occurred in Jeolla Province(全羅道), in Haenam region the average or abundant crops were harvested. As a result, it was possible to specifically observe that the weather-related information at the Province(道) level cannot be applied to the city and county level as it is.

Analysis of Forecasting Methods on Rice Price Data at Milling Level According to Quality

Rice is a primary source of carbohydrates for many Indonesians, and its prices often surge due to uncontrolled demand. Therefore, the government is crucial in monitoring rice prices to maintain stability. Information technology, particularly data mining such as forecasting, is essential for providing accurate information on future rice prices. It will assist various stakeholders in making informed pricing policy decisions. This study employs Random Forest Regression and Gradient Boosting Regressor methods to predict rice prices using a dataset that includes monthly average rice prices at milling levels, categorized by quality (Premium and Medium), spanning from January 2013 to April 2024. The dataset consists of 136 rows, each representing a unique combination of year, month, and quality, and is stored in CSV format. Methodological steps include data collection, preprocessing, modeling, and model evaluation using monthly average rice prices at milling levels based on quality, including premium and medium grades. The results from Random Forest Regression indicate Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of 24.90 for premium rice and 25.47 for medium rice. The study reveals that Random Forest Regression outperforms Gradient Boosting Regressor in this context. Future research should explore additional prediction methods and consider other variables influencing rice prices to enhance model accuracy.

Rice Farmgate Price Estimation and Collection Modality in Oromia, Ethiopia

The main aim of this analysis to estimate minimum farmgate price for paddy rice and to indicate paddy rice collection modalities from farmers and provide an overview of current rice production status in Oromia. Rice (Oryza sativa) is one of the most stable foods and expected to contribute to ensuring food security in Ethiopia. The success of rice production depends somewhat on its high yield potential, processing technologies and marketing facilities. Improving rice production and productivity as well as facilitating its processing and marketing access is therefore one of a key part of the economic growth strategies in the Oromia government’s food self-sufficiency initiatives. Both local production and import are the two key sources of rice grain supply and meet consumption demand of Oromia people. Consumption trends in Oromia as well as in Ethiopia have shown a substantial increase from time to time. Using a quantitative secondary data and a review of existing literature, this study provides an overview of the rice production and estimating the farmgate price of paddy rice. The study stresses the need for estimation of farmgate price, formulation of rice processing technologies and market-enhancing policies, such as supplying and installing rice processing technologies, better access to market facilities and market information and to improve rice productivity.

Price and Non‐Price Factors in Development of Rice Cultivation: Case Studies From Southern India and Mekong‐Delta Vietnam

ABSTRACTThe high rice prices of 2023 have highlighted the need for increasing rice productivity. But improving productivity, especially in low‐performing rice‐producing regions, should also improve incomes for the numerous smallholder cultivators. This article examines what we can learn from the experience of high‐performing rice‐growing regions, which have both high rice yields and incomes. We focus on two best‐performing villages from Kerala, southern India and Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Using a detailed case study approach combining farm budget analysis, counterfactual simulations using agricultural household models, and qualitative insights, our analysis shows the contribution of price support, irrigation, and agricultural research in these two regions to the current situation. While price support was the prominent factor in Keralaʼs village, irrigation and extending the cropping intensity was important for farm incomes in the Mekong Delta village. This comparative analysis demonstrates the need for an ongoing evaluation of price and non‐price factors and supplementing farm incomes through specific interventions for developing low‐performing rice‐producing regions.

Analysis of Rice Demand in Klaten Regency

This study aims to analyze the influence of rice prices, population size, and income on rice demand, as well as to determine the elasticity of rice demand in Klaten Regency. A descriptive analysis method was employed using secondary time series data over a period of 10 years (2013-2022), which included rice demand and population data. The data analysis model applied was multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests. Hypotheses were tested using t-tests, F-tests, and R-squared tests. The results indicate that: 1) Rice prices have a negative influence on rice demand, with a p-value of 0.06; 2) Population size has a positive influence on rice demand, with a p-value of 0.003; 3) Per capita income positively influences rice demand, with a p-value of 0.004; and 4) Rice demand is inelastic, as the price elasticity coefficient (0 < Ep < 1) suggests that changes in rice demand are smaller than changes in rice prices. Income elasticity (EI > 1) indicates that rice demand increases significantly with higher income levels.

The Direction of Farming Policy Toward Food Resilience in Indonesia

Objective: This research aims to analyze the direction of farming policy toward food resilience through subsidy program and maintaining the existence of farmers. Theoretical Framework: As an agrarian state, Indonesia has majority populations living in rural areas with farming being livelihood and rice being main food staple. Therefore, the availability of food material is a very crucial problem. Method: The research methods used was survey on dry-land farmers, secondary data, and documentation of newspaper clipping. Result: The result shows: 1) the farming policy is inhibited by the ever reduced land, 2) subsidy granting has not solved the farmers’ problem yet, the difficulty of finding fertilizer during harvest season and lowered prices during harvest season, and 3) the governmental policy through importing rice does not solve the root of problem in achieving food resilience by making the farmers not prosperous. Implication of Research: The policy is made by government through improving domestic production and importing rice to secure the rice reserve in Perum BULOG. Conclusion: The problems inhibiting the production of food staple are the reduced farming land, the increased population number, and the natural factor. On the other hand, the price of rice goes down during harvest season and import during low season always occurs repeatedly. A commitment of farming policy direction partial to the farmers is required, from upstream to downstream.

THE EFFECT OF RICE PRICE ON THE INDONESIAN INFLATION IN A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

The aim of this research is to identify and verify whether rice prices do play a role in driving national inflation using time series data. The time series data for this study spans from 2017 to 2023 on a monthly basis. To facilitate our analysis, we subject the data to standardized stationary tests, serving two essential purposes. Firstly, these tests ascertain the constancy of mean, standard deviation, variance, and covariance for each observation. Secondly, they aid in determining the extent of integration among the variables under scrutiny. For this particular purpose, we employ the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots. The outcomes of these stationary tests provide crucial insights, directing policy decisions to effectively address the challenge of inflation. It is widely acknowledged that the factors driving inflation rates, not only in Indonesia but globally, can be classified into two primary categories, the first being associated with the money supply. The research findings distinctly demonstrate that while rice certainly plays a role, it is not the exclusive or singular underlying cause of fluctuations in the inflation rate.

Analisis Perbedaan Preferensi Konsumen dalam Mengkonsumsi Beras Kampung dan Beras Pasar di Wilayah Desa Andeng Kecamatan Sengah Temila

This research was conducted with the aim of observing and finding out the extent of consumers’ preferences for consuming village rice. This research was carried out using qualitative methods through data collection by conducting observations and interviews. The results of this research are that village rice has several attribute elements such as price, shape of rice, taste, aroma, color and packaging size. These product attributes are one way to develop products and services that have been used by business actors. This product attribute can help consumers to differentiate village rice products from market rice because both have different attributes so that with these product attributes business actors can see consumer preferences in consuming village rice. Consumer preferences in the Andeng village area, Sengah Temila sub-district, Landak district can be seen from how often consumers buy or consume village rice sold by business actors. In terms of consumer interests and tastes, many consumers prefer to buy village rice rather than buy rice in the market because the price of village rice is cheaper than the price of market rice

ANALISIS KETAHANAN PANGAN RUMAH TANGGA PETANI PADI SAWAH DI DESA MONAPA KECAMATAN MOWILA KABUPATEN KONAWE SELATAN

This study aims to find out (1) How is the food security of paddy rice farming households in Monapa Village, Mowila District, South Konawe Regency; (2) Factors affecting the food security of rice farming households in Monapa Village, Mowila District, South Konawe Regency, with a total sample of 63 respondents using the slovin formula. To answer the first goal using the measurement of the share of food expenditure. For the second purpose using multiple linear analysis. Based on the results of research on the food security of lowland rice farmer households in Monapa Village, Mowila District, South Konawe Regency, the majority of 65.08% of households fall into the food insecure category (share of food expenditure ≥ 60%) and the remaining 34.92% of households included in the category of food security (share of food expenditure ≤ 60%). The factor that has a significant effect on the food security of paddy rice farming households in Monapa Village, Mowila District, South Konawe Regency is household income with a significant value of 0.032 which is less than the value of α (0.05). While the variables of the number of family members, the education of the housewife, the price of rice and eggs have no significant effect on the food security of rice farming households.

PERAN PENYULUH PERTANIAN TERHADAP KINERJA USAHATANI PADI SAWAH DI DESA TEPPOE KECAMATAN POLEANG TIMUR KABUPATEN BOMBANA

This study aims to examine the role of agricultural extension workers in the context of wet-rice farming in Teppoe Village, East Poleang Subdistrict, and to elucidate the relationship between the two. The research population consisted of all wet-rice farmers in Teppoe Village, amounting to a total of 250 individuals. A sample of 25 individuals was selected from the total research population, representing 10% of the total number of respondents. The data were collected via survey, interview, and documentation methods with the assistance of research instruments in the form of questionnaires. This study employs a quantitative approach. The research data were analyzed using quantitative descriptive methods, specifically the class interval formula and Spearman's rank correlation. The findings indicated that the role of agricultural extension workers in Teppoe Village, East Poleang Subdistrict, as facilitators was deemed to be satisfactory. However, their roles as motivators and educators were perceived to be inadequate, while their role as innovators was considered to be satisfactory. The performance of paddy rice farming in terms of productivity is in the satisfied category, while the sales price of paddy rice and farmers' income are in the moderately satisfied category. The relationship between the role of agricultural extension officers and farm performance was found to be statistically significant (value 0.031), though the strength of the relationship was relatively weak (value 0.363).

COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY

Extreme weather changes and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 will cause drought, resulting in a decrease in rice production and an increase in rice prices. It has significantly impacted East Java Province as it is the most extensive rice supplier in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the price of rice with six different qualities using the Fourier series estimator and Gaussian kernel function simultaneously. The results show that the Gaussian kernel method, with a bandwidth value of 1, produces a better model with a MAPE value of 0.228259% than the sine function Fourier series method in predicting rice prices based on six different qualities. The prediction results using the Gaussian kernel function method are categorized as highly accurate because they are less than 10%. This research accelerates the realization of SDG 2 related to "Zero Hunger" through government policies to control the high price of rice in Indonesia. Recommendations that can be given through the research results include cooperation with the government, which can help access information and resources needed to manage price risks.