Revealed Preference Tests Research Articles

A Revealed Preference Test for Choquet and Max-Min Expected Utility with Ambiguity Aversion

We develop a revealed preference test for the Choquet expected utility model with ambiguity aversion, which does not rely on specific functional form assumptions on the utility index. It is computationally efficient if the number of states is not too large, even for a large number of observations. This is a nice feature compared to other existing revealed preference tests for decision models with ambiguity. We illustrate the usefulness of our results by implementing our test on two experimental datasets from the literature, and we compare the empirical fit of this model to the subjective expected utility model. (JEL C91, D81, D91, G41)

A Comparison of Financial Risk-Tolerance Assessment Methods in Predicting Subsequent Risk Tolerance and Future Portfolio Choices

This study explores the effectiveness of various methods for measuring risk tolerance, with the aim to better understand the risk-taking attitudes and behaviors of financial decision-makers. Using data collected between October 2020 and March 2021, the research investigates three key areas: (a) the stability of risk tolerance over a six-month period, (b) the individual and household characteristics that predict future risk tolerance, and (c) the predictive accuracy of various risk-tolerance assessment methods in relation to portfolio choices made by financial decision-makers. The results show that risk-tolerance scores derived from a psychometrically developed scale provide the most accurate insights into future risk-taking attitudes and portfolio decisions. For those looking for a simple way to assess both current and future risk tolerance and portfolio choices, a stated-preference item can be effective. Although less consistent, a revealed-preference test can also be used to predict risk tolerance and risk-taking behavior. Findings provide guidance for financial decision-makers and financial advisors by comparing the key features of the three primary risk-tolerance assessment methods evaluated in this study. The study also establishes a foundational basis for selecting the most appropriate evaluation approach, based on the variables identified in the findings.

Revealing Choice Bracketing

Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly bracket, but existing designs do not test it. We design a novel experiment and revealed preference tests for how someone brackets their choices. In portfolio allocation under risk, social allocation, and induced-value shopping experiments, 40–43 percent of subjects are consistent with narrow bracketing, and 0–16 percent with broad bracketing. Adjusting for each model’s predictive precision, 74 percent of subjects are best described by narrow bracketing, 13 percent by broad bracketing, and 6 percent by intermediate cases. (JEL D12, D81, D91)

Revealed preference tests for price competition in multi-product differentiated markets

Assumptions of competitive structure are often crucial for marginal cost estimation and counterfactual predictions. This paper introduces tests for price competition among multi-product firms. The tests are based on the firm’s revealed preference (revealed profit function). In contrast to other approaches based on estimated demand functions such as conduct parameter estimation, the proposed tests do not require any instrumental variables, even though the models can accommodate structural error terms. In this paper, I employ a demand structure introduced by Nocke and Schutz (Econometrica 86(2):523–557, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14720), the discrete/continuous choice model, which nests the multinomial logit demand and CES demand functions. Any price and quantity data can be rationalized by price competition under a discrete/continuous choice model and increasing marginal costs. Adding more assumptions to the demand functions, such as logit, CES, or the co-evolving and log-concave property produces some falsifiable restrictions.

A general revealed preference test for quasilinear preferences: theory and experiments

We provide a generalized revealed preference test for quasilinear preferences. The test applies to nonlinear budget sets and non-convex preferences as those found in taxation and nonlinear pricing contexts. We study the prevalence of quasilinear preferences in a laboratory real-effort task experiment with nonlinear wages. The experiment demonstrates the empirical relevance of our test. We find support for either convex (non-separable) preferences or quasilinear preferences but weak support for the hypothesis of both quasilinear and convex preferences.

Revealed Preference Tests for Linear Probability-Prize Tradeoffs

Revealed Preference Tests for Linear Probability-Prize Tradeoffs

Groundwater Usage and Strategic Complements: Part II (Revealed Preferences)

We investigate the strategic nature of farmers’ groundwater usage with a rich dataset from the American Midwest. We propose a new revealed preference test for the groundwater interaction as a dynamic game. We reject a view of groundwater usage decisions as strategic substitutes in favor of strategic complements as a better description.

Power against random expenditure allocation for revealed preference tests

This paper proposes new power indices for revealed preference tests. The indices are based on models of irrational consumption behavior where the consumer randomly allocates a certain fraction of expenditure. The methods allow a researcher to trace out the entire power curve against random expenditure allocation. The power indices are illustrated on altruistic choices in experimental data.

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure to generate revealed preference consistent datasets

This paper presents Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) procedures to sample uniformly from the collection of datasets that satisfy some revealed preference test. The MCMC for the GARP test combines a Gibbs-sampler with a simple hit and run step. It is shown that the MCMC has the uniform distribution as its unique invariant distribution and that it converges to this distribution at an exponential rate.

A utility representation theorem for general revealed preference

We provide a utility representation theorem for the revealed preference of an agent choosing in an arbitrary space endowed with a separable partial order. The result can be applied to construct new revealed preference tests for choices over infinite consumption streams and probability distribution spaces, among other cases of interest in economics. As an illustration, we construct revealed preference tests for best-responding behavior in strategic games and infinite horizon consumption problems.

Revealed preferences of groundwater usage: decisions as strategic complements, not substitutes

We investigate the strategic nature of farmers’ groundwater usage with a rich dataset from the American Midwest. We propose a new revealed preference test for the groundwater interaction as a dynamic game. We reject a view of groundwater usage decisions as strategic substitutes in favor of strategic complements as a better description.

Testable Implications of Models of Intertemporal Choice: Exponential Discounting and Its Generalizations

We present revealed-preference characterizations of the most common models of intertemporal choice: the model of exponentially discounted concave utility, and some of its generalizations. Our characterizations take consumption data as primitives, and provide nonparametric revealed-preference tests. We apply our tests to data from two recent experiments and find that our axiomatization delivers new insights and perspectives on datasets that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods. (JEL C91, D11, D15)

General Revealed Preference Tests of Weak Separability and Utility Maximization with Incomplete Adjustment

We propose more general non-parametric revealed preference tests for weak separability and utility maximization with incomplete adjustment. Hence, these procedures account for a decision maker’s inability to adjust his optimal allocation of the demanded goods and assets. Incomplete adjustment is especially important when modelling preferences of durable goods and assets. The procedures are based on a computationally attractive integer programming approach. Two empirical applications show that it is important to account for incomplete adjustment in consumer demand models of durable consumption goods and monetary assets.

Credibility in Second-Price Auctions: An Experimental Test

We provide the first direct test of how the credibility of an auction format affects bidding behavior and final outcomes. To do so, we conduct a series of laboratory experiments where the role of the seller is played by a human subject who receives the revenue from the auction and who (depending on the treatment) has agency to determine the outcome of the auction. We find that a large majority of bids in the non-credible version of the second-price auction lie between the theoretical benchmarks of the first-price auction and the credible second-price auction. While sellers in the non-credible second-price auction often break the rules of the auction and overcharge the winning bidder, they typically do not maximize revenue. We provide a behavioral explanation for our results based on incorrect beliefs (on the part of bidders) and aversion to rule-breaking (on the part of sellers), which is confirmed by revealed preference tests.

Revealed Preference Tests for Price Competition in Multi-product Differentiated Markets

Assumptions on competitive structure are often crucial for marginal cost estimation and counterfactual predictions. This paper introduces tests for price competition among multi-product firms are introduced. The tests are based on the firm's revealed preference (revealed profit function). In contrast to other approaches based on estimated demand functions such as conduct parameter estimation, the proposed tests do not require any instrumental variables even though the models can accommodate structural error terms. In this paper, I employ a demand structure introduced by Nocke and Schutz (2018), the discrete/continuous choice model, which nests the multinomial logit demand and CES demand functions. Any price and quantity data can be rationalized by price competition under a discrete/continuous choice model and increasing marginal costs. Adding more assumptions on the demand function, such as logit, CES, or the co-evolving and log-concave property produces some falsifiable restrictions.

Revealed preference tests of indirect and homothetic weak separability of financial assets, consumption and leisure

Hjertstrand et al. (2016) recently tested weak separability of the direct utility function using U.S. data on consumption goods, leisure, financial and monetary assets. This paper investigates different forms of weak separability. While weak separability of the direct utility function provides the best fit, by allowing for small errors in the data we find some evidence that financial and monetary assets can be rationalized by a weakly separable indirect utility function. Further we find that M1, a modern analog of money defined by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and narrow and broader real sector aggregates can be rationalized by indirect weak separability. We also find that M1 and real sector aggregates can be rationalized by homothetic weak separability.

Detecting collusion in retail electricity markets: Results from Japan for 2005 to 2010

This analysis investigates whether the Cournot model of imperfect competition holds true in the Japanese retail electricity market, using monthly data over the period 2005 to 2010. One concern about electricity markets that are open to retail competition is the potential for collusive behavior of some suppliers. A revealed preference test of the Cournot model is conducted, using market price and firm output data, as in Carvajal et al. (2013). The application of the revealed preference test to the retail electricity market in Japan indicates that the possibility of collusive behavior among the incumbents cannot be excluded.

Index Numbers and Revealed Preference Rankings

For previously identified weakly separable blockings of goods and assets, we construct aggregates using four superlative index numbers, the Fisher, Sato-Vartia, Tornqvist and Walsh, two non-superlative indexes, the Laspeyres and Paasche and the atheoretical simple summation. We conduct several tests to examine how well each of these aggregates “fit” the data. These tests are how close the aggregates come to solving the revealed preference conditions for weak separability, how often each aggregate gets the direction of change correct and how well the aggregates mimic the preference ranking from revealed preference tests. We find that, as the number of goods and assets being aggregated increases, the problems with simple summation manifest.

A General Revealed Preference Test for Quasi-Linear Preferences: Theory and Experiments

We provide a generalized revealed preference test for quasi-linear preferences. The test applies to nonlinear budget sets and nonconvex preferences and can be used in contexts such as taxation and nonlinear pricing. We use this test to evaluate the prevalence of quasi-linear preferences in a laboratory experiment on consumption. We find that half of the subjects who satisfy the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preferences also satisfy the criteria for quasi-linear preferences.

Samuelson's Approach to Revealed Preference Theory: Some Recent Advances

Since Paul Samuelson introduced the theory of revealed preference, it has become one of the most important concepts in economics. This chapter surveys some recent contributions in the revealed preference literature. We depart from Afriat's theorem, which provides the conditions for a data set to be consistent with the utility maximization hypothesis. We provide and motivate a new condition, which we call the Varian inequalities. The advantage of the Varian inequalities is that they can be formulated as a set of mixed integer linear inequalities, which are linear in the quantity and price data. We show how the Varian inequalities can be used to derive revealed preference tests for weak separability, and show how it can be used to formulate tests of the collective household model. Finally, we discuss measurement errors in the observed data and measures of goodness-of-fit, power and predictive success.