Gold Returns Research Articles

Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years

Using data that cover the annual period from 1258 to 2023, we studied the link between real gold returns and climate risks. We documented a positive contemporaneous link and a negative predictive link. Our findings further show that the predictive link historically gave rise to significant out-of-sample forecasting gains. The positive contemporaneous link is consistent with the view that investors viewed gold as a safe haven in times of elevated climate risks. The negative predictive link, in turn, is consistent with an overshooting scenario in which the real gold price overshot in response to climate risks, only to return subsequently to a lower value. Our findings should provide important implications for investors and policymakers, given that our analysis covered the longest possible data sample involving the gold market, and hence, was independent of any sample selection bias.

The Relationship between the Return of Energy Companies Listed on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and the Exchange Rate, KASE Index, and Gold Return: ARDL Bounds Value Approach

In a free market economy, stock market indices are influenced not only by national economic developments, but also by economic indicators such as gold, exchange rates, and oil. It is important to consider these indicators when analyzing the returns of companies traded on the stock exchange. Internal factors that impact stock market returns include the company's estimated earnings and changes in the company's financial structure. External factors include macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates, interest rates, gold prices, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A study analyzed the relationship between the returns of energy companies traded on KASE and the KASE index, exchange rate, and gold return during the period of 01.01.2023-01.04.2024 (328 trading days) using the ARDL Bounds Value Approach. The research findings indicate that the stock market composite index, foreign exchange, and gold returns have a long-term effect on the returns of energy companies. Particularly, the long-term effect of the stock market composite index return is found to be significant and positive for all three assets. Additionally, the effect of companies' past values has been observed as negative. According to the error correction model analysis, a key finding is that shocks to company returns will reach equilibrium in a short time, approximately one trading day. These results can provide decision support, especially for investors, when investing in energy companies.

Spillover Effects between Oil, Gold, Stock, and Exchange Rate Returns in Thailand: An Extended Joint Connected TVP-VAR Approach

The objective of this study is to analyze the spillover effects among the returns of oil, gold, the stock market, and exchange rates in Thailand. Using the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR) with extended joint connectedness and data from April 2002 to March 2024, our analysis reveals a moderate level of the dynamic linkage among these returns. We observe that the dynamic connectedness among all returns varies over time, influenced by global economic events and country situations. Notably, in Thailand's landscape, stock market and gold returns act as net shock transmitters, with the stock market exhibiting the highest volatility among all variables, while oil and exchange rate markets function as net recipients. These insights significantly contribute to understanding asset and commodity markets and offer valuable policy implications for effectively managing these markets.

Co‐Jump Dependency and Transmission Across US Commodity Futures: A Network Analysis

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the co‐jump transmission in 20 commodity futures returns in the United States using co‐jump network models. Specifically, it reveals co‐jumping behavior in both static and time‐varying settings, considering the overall commodity markets and various commodity groups separately, which helps us understand the dynamic changes in co‐jump dependencies at the overall and sector levels. The main results reveal that co‐jump heterogeneity exists among commodities but is generally more apparent within each commodity group, and co‐jumps vary over time. Gold exerts the strongest influence, with many commodity futures being influenced by the jumps behavior in gold returns. During the COVID‐19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine war, the energy group ranks highest in terms of co‐jump network centrality. Our empirical analysis highlights the portfolio performance and risk reduction, and an additional examination shows that centrality information from the co‐jump network contains a highly and statistically forecasting power for US stock market volatility.

How do the gold intra-day returns and volatility react to monetary policy shocks?

In this paper, we use high frequency data to obtain novel asymmetry results in the short-term response of gold to monetary policy shocks. The gold returns and volatility 5 min after the shock are found to be more sensitive to looser than tighter FOMC rate announcement changes. This is explained by the increased appeal of gold during uncertainties and as a safe haven following negative monetary shocks. The rally in gold prices is construed by the market as an increase in the demand for safe haven assets, and hence, a stronger response in gold returns and volatility ensues. Moreover, we find that the gold price adjustment and its volatility adjustment continue for longer than five minutes after the FOMC shock. This suggests potential short-term inefficiencies in the gold market concerning the short-term rates.

Comparative Analysis of Gold, Art, and Wheat as Inflation Hedges

This study confirms gold’s role as a reliable inflation hedge while introducing new insights into lesser-explored assets like art and wheat. Using advanced methodologies such as the ARDL framework and LSTM deep learning, it conducts a detailed analysis of inflation-hedging dynamics, exploring non-linear relationships and unexpected inflation impacts across various asset classes. The findings reveal complex dynamics. Gold demonstrates strong long-term inflation hedging potential. The negative coefficient for the US dollar index suggests that gold acts as a hedge against currency depreciation. Furthermore, a positive relationship between gold returns and inflation during high inflation periods highlights its effectiveness in protecting purchasing power. Art presents a more intricate picture. Long-term analysis suggests a weak mean-reverting tendency, but a negative relationship with inflation, potentially linked to economic downturns. Interestingly, unexpected inflation positively correlates with art returns in the long run, hinting at its potential inflation-hedging abilities. No statistically significant connection between wheat prices and overall inflation was observed; the short-run analysis reveals a dynamic interplay between inflation, real GDP growth, and wheat prices at different time points.

Extracting gold risk premium via dimension reduction tools: implication on the gold–inflation relationship

ABSTRACT We forecast future gold returns with a long sample starting from 1980, using various dimension reduction tools. We demonstrate that the models based on dimension reduction tools can generate sizable fit (approximately 20% of in-sample R2) and strong out-of-sample performance (approximately 15% of out-of-sample R2). By utilizing the extracted gold risk premiums, we test the gold–inflation relationship on an ex-ante basis. We find a strong positive relationship between the expected inflation and the gold risk premium when forecasting with feature extraction methods (PLS, PCA, scaled-PCA, target-PCA).

Global economic contraction, climate change and the gold market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach

AbstractOur paper has two main objectives. First, we aim to investigate the relationship between global economic contraction (GECON) and the return volatility of gold. Second, we examine the role of climate change as a mediator in this connection. To achieve this, we use the GARCH‐MIDAS model, which accommodates data in different frequencies in the same model. This prevents the loss of important information when aggregating high‐frequency data to lower‐frequency data. We also use alternative measures of GECON from Kilian and Zhou (Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018; 88, 54–78) and Baumeister et al. (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020;104(4), 828–844) to ensure the robustness of our findings. Our results show that global economic contraction positively impacts the return volatility of gold. Additionally, our findings confirm that the increased uncertainty caused by climate change makes gold a safe haven for investors. This means that gold's return volatility is not negatively impacted by the rising level of uncertainty caused by climate‐induced contraction. Moreover, we note that the index of GECON that accommodates more dynamics can produce more accurate predictability for gold market volatility. Our analysis of stock market volatility further confirms that gold has a safe haven potential relative to the stock market.

Volatility and models based on the extreme value theory for gold returns

In this study, we use daily gold log-returns to analyse the quality of forecasting expected shortfalls (ES) using volatility and models based on the extreme value theory (EVT). ES forecasts were calculated for conditional APARCH models formed on the entire distribution of returns, as well as for EVT models. The results of ES forecasts for each model were verified using the backtesting procedure proposed by Acerbi and Szekely. The results show that EVT models provide more accurate one-day ahead ES forecasts compared to the other models. Moreover, the asymmetric theoretical distributions for innovations of EVT models allow the improvement of the accuracy of ES forecasting.

On the (In)efficiency of gold and bitcoin: impact of COVID-19

PurposeWe aim to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of Gold and Bitcoin returns. In particular, our efficiency tests are based on the popular calendar anomaly, the turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect in these markets.Design/methodology/approachWe define the TOM days as the final trading day of a month and initial three trading days of the immediate next month. To understand the TOM effect, we estimate the typical Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model using the Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) standard errors and covariances.FindingsThough in the full sample, a positive and significant TOM effect is observed only for Bitcoin, during COVID period, the TOM effect appears in Gold returns and becomes stronger for Bitcoin, implying that the considered securities become inefficient during COVID period.Practical implicationsBased on these results, we create a trading strategy which is found to surpass the buy-and-hold strategy for both the full sample as well as the COVID period for Bitcoin while only during the COVID period for Gold. Our results provide useful implications for investors and policymakers as the Gold and Bitcoin markets can be timed by taking positions especially based on the behavior of the TOM effect.Originality/valueWe examine the TOM effect in the two important securities – Gold and Bitcoin. Though, a few studies have examined this anomaly in currency, equity and cryptocurrency markets, however, they have not considered the Gold market. Additionally, no study has examined the impact of COVID-19 on the TOM effect in these markets, and hence, market efficiency. We believe that our study is the first to examine the TOM effect in these markets simultaneously.

Hedging Bitcoin with commodity futures: An analysis with copper, gas, gold, and crude oil futures

There is increased interest in the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrency and commodity futures. This study examines the hedging performance of four well-known commodity futures against fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Furthermore, this study used the DCC- and ADCC-MGARCH models to estimate conditional correlations and time-varying optimal hedge ratios between the returns of copper, gas, gold, and crude oil futures, and Bitcoin. We use a rolling window method to calculate one-step-ahead time-varying optimal hedge ratios and evaluate hedging performance. The empirical results show that gas and gold have hedge benefits to Bitcoin. However, crude oil shows poor hedge performance. From the results of one-step-ahead hedge ratios, for copper and oil, we find that hedge ratios increased and hedge effectiveness improved since the COVID-19 outbreak.

Impact of Oil and Gold Prices on Southeast Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from Quantile Regression Analysis

According to Chang and Li (2022), the COVID-19 pandemic may have had an impact on the European and American capital markets’ dependence on crude oil. However, no studies have assessed the returns and impacts of crude oil and gold prices on Southeast Asian stock markets in conjunction with the COVID-19 pandemic. To address this gap, a quantile regression model was used to analyze data of Southeast Asia stock prices from 2016 to 2023, alongside the daily closing prices of Dubai crude oil and world gold. The findings suggest that crude oil has a large trickle-down impact on the Southeast Asian market returns. This highlights the importance of dynamic linkages over time by reporting dynamic spillover to be statistically significant in Southeast Asian stock returns. Most stock returns show that volatility shocks are enduring. In Singapore and Thailand, the gold returns significantly and favorably affect the stock returns at all quantiles. At various quantiles, the impact of gold returns is notably favorable in the remaining scenarios.

Market volatility and crisis dynamics: a comprehensive analysis of U.S., China, India, and Pakistan stock markets with oil and gold interconnections during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine war periods

The objective of this paper is to explore the interconnectedness of volatility among the stock markets of U.S., China, India, and Pakistan in conjunction with oil and gold markets. Employing the novel Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model for assessing connectedness, the study scrutinizes key patterns of dependency and interrelation between these markets. Furthermore, this study investigates the dynamic connectedness during the global health crisis due to COVID-19 and the geopolitical crisis due to Russia–Ukraine war periods to identify the changes in their relationship following the two crises episodes. The findings underscore the significance of volatility transmissions emanating from the U.S., a developed market, in shaping these dynamic linkages. It is observed that oil and gold returns play a limited role as sources of shocks for market returns in China, India, and Pakistan, suggesting a relatively lower contribution of oil and gold to equity market volatility. The results also emphasize the safe-haven characteristics of gold during periods of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Moreover, the study indicates that the volatility transmissions during the COVID-19 pandemic are more pronounced compared to the Russia–Ukraine war crisis. These findings hold notable implications for both investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and the development of risk-averse strategies, particularly in times of crisis.

Reassessment of linkage between stock prices and gold prices: A causal investigation

This research aims to understand the connection between the capital market and the gold market. To understand the link between gold prices and equity prices and vice versa, the vector autoregression model (VAR) is estimated, and the Granger causality test is performed in the framework of VAR. Unit root tests such as the Augment Dicky Fuller test and Phillips-Pierrion test are conducted to check for the stationarity of the data. Johansen's cointegration test is conducted to check for cointegration between two time series. We utilized weekly data from June 7, 2009, to December 25, 2021. Stock indices of three countries, namely, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, are used in the paper. Gold prices are in the currency of selected stock markets. According to the findings, unidirectional causality exists only in the case of Turkey, where it runs from stock returns to gold returns. Numerous articles have attempted to clarify the connection between the gold market and stock exchanges. This paper utilizes the most recent data and tries to understand the linkages among three countries that are major buyers of gold.

Comparative Analysis of Portfolio Performance, Risk and Return of Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin), Stocks and Gold as Alternative Investments in the Digital Age

In this study, portfolio performance, risk, and return are compared between the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and equities and gold as alternative investments in the digital age. This type of quantitative study uses comparative approaches. Monthly closing price data was located online or on websites for the secondary data used in this study. The saturation sampling approach was used to get 180 data from the sampling of samples. The analytical approach utilized with the SPSS 26.0 for Windows application comprises quantitative analysis, normality testing, homogeneity testing, and hypothesis testing. The study’s findings reveal that: (1) the returns offered by bitcoin, IDX30 shares, and Antam gold are not significantly different; (2) the risks offered by bitcoin, IDX30 shares, and Antam gold have significant differences; (3) the performance offered by bitcoin. There are significant differences between IDX30 shares and Antam gold with the Sharpe method; and (4) the performance offered by bitcoin, IDX30 shares, and Antam gold with the Treynor method has a significant difference.
 Keywords: cryptocurrency, investment, portfolio performance, stock, gold, risk, return

Exploring fluctuations and interconnected movements in stock, commodity, and cryptocurrency markets

Abstract This research employs a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to explore the volatility and dynamic interactions between stock, commodity, and cryptocurrency markets. It focuses on the returns of the S&P 500, gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin to analyse their interconnections. Our results indicate that Bitcoin returns positively affect S&P 500 and crude oil, but negatively impact gold. Conversely, crude oil returns have a positive influence on gold but lead to decreased returns for Bitcoin and the S&P 500. Similarly, higher gold returns correspond to increased returns in crude oil and S&P 500 but decreased returns in Bitcoin. The rise of the S&P 500 negatively influences Bitcoin and crude oil returns, while gold returns remain unaffected. However, these relationships exhibit weak and limited strength. Including these assets in a portfolio can help risk mitigation, as Bitcoin diversifies crude oil, gold, and S&P 500, and crude oil diversifies S&P 500. These findings contribute to our understanding of global financial dynamics and inform decision-making in risk assessment, portfolio management, risk mitigation, and diversification strategies.

THE RETURN OF UKRAINIAN CULTURAL TREASURES: A LONG ROAD HOME

An analysis of various aspects of the return of Ukrainian cultural treasures has been conducted. The article examines the collaboration between the Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University and the Archive-Museum of the Ukrainian Free Academy of Sciences in the USA in 2009. It demonstrates that archival materials and personal belongings of the Kosach family were transferred from the Funds of the Archive-Museum of the Ukrainian Free Academy of Sciences to the Lesia Ukrainka Research Institute. It is indicated that in 2010, a concept was developed and the initial stage of the “Cultural Treasures of Ukraine” information system was implemented. This system comprised eight registers of cultural treasures: those lost during and as a result of World War II (libraries, museums); those returned to Ukraine; those related to the history of the Ukrainian people located outside Ukraine; those sought nationally; those sought upon requests from other countries; confiscated cultural treasures; objects with permits for temporary export from Ukraine. It is noted that during this period, exhibitions, cultural projects, presentations, and discussions related to the return of Ukrainian cultural treasures were organized. After the cessation of the State Service for Control over the Movement of Cultural Values across the State Border in 2011, the Department for the Control of the Movement of Cultural Values was established within the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine. Importantly, despite funding constraints due to an economic crisis, efforts were made to search for cultural treasures and maintain cooperation with the Ukrainian diaspora. Additionally, the article highlights initiatives concerning the return of Scythian gold and the intricate process of repatriating cultural artifacts to Ukraine. The protracted legal battle in this matter is analyzed. Methodological work was also carried out to establish specific norms for conducting expertise on cultural values, leading to the approval of Methodological Recommendations for the State Expertise of Cultural Values by the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine in 2019. Notably, contacts with the United States of America and Germany have been of particular importance in the realm of cultural treasures repatriation.

Do geopolitical risks from the economic powers dominate world gold return? Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach

Do geopolitical risks from the economic powers dominate world gold return? Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach

Gold and Bitcoin as Hedging Instruments for Equity Markets under Crisis

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 'Cambria',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Gold has been traditionally well recognized as a safe heaven for financial markets. Lately, Bitcoin has been gradually considered as a popular alternative. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, it has become even more necessary and critical to examine the diversification capability of them to hedge financial risks associated with an unexpected crisis comparable to the pandemic. This paper hence employs the wavelet analysis, complemented by the multivariate DCC-GARCH approach, to measure the coherence of the gold and Bitcoin prices with six representative stock market indices, three for developed economies and three for emerging economies, all of which are heavily affected by the pandemic. To have a more balanced and comprehensive analysis, two-year data are used, spanning from 12th April 2019 to 15th April 2021, which covers approximately one year before and one year after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that the returns of both gold and Bitcoin are generally not strongly correlated with the market returns of all six indices, particularly for short-term investment horizons. That is, investors in all six indices can benefit through gold, as well as Bitcoin, in terms of hedging. Meanwhile, compared with Bitcoin, gold shows to be less correlated with the indices, particularly for long-term investment horizons. The findings hence suggest that gold and Bitcoin offer diversification benefits to investors in the market indices during a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for short-term investment horizons. The study also reminds policymakers thinking beyond the pandemic about the future of the earth, including air pollution and health, for sustainable development of the whole world.</span></p>

The response of gold to the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how the gold return and its volatility respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachStochastic volatility (SV) models are conducted to examine the response of gold to the number of new confirmed cases and deaths.FindingsThe results indicate that an increase in the change rate of the number of COVID-19 infections or fatalities leads to heightened volatility in gold prices. Moreover, the results suggest that gold volatility is more sensitive to the impacts from high-income countries than by those from middle- and low-income countries. In addition, the asymmetric effect is detected in the gold price volatility, which is contrary to the typical asymmetric effect seen in the stock market. Furthermore, the results remain robust after accounting for the US dollar and the volatility index in relation to gold returns.Practical implicationsThis study presents whether and to what extent gold is incorporated in the information related to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.Originality/valueThis study augments the existing literature by exploring how the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities influences gold prices. In addition, it examines the day-of-the-week and asymmetric effects that may contribute to the volatility of gold prices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the evolution of gold has not yet been investigated using SV models.