Return Synchronicity Research Articles

Disclosure Regulation and Price Informativeness: Evidence from Industry-Information Disclosure Guidelines in China

We examine whether China’s industry-information disclosure guidelines (IIDGs) improve firms’ stock price informativeness and the quality of their textual disclosure. Employing a stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that applicable firms respond to IIDG implementation by including additional IIDG-related and firm-specific information in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A). Our results also show that the stock market reacts to the enhanced disclosure and incorporates more firm-specific (rather than market-wide or industry-level) information into the stock price, as evidenced by a decrease in stock return synchronicity. Further analyses show that firms with fewer increases in textual disclosure following IIDG implementation are more likely to receive disclosure-related comment letters. Additionally, the extent to which firms change their textual disclosure varies with the industry concentration and firms’ profit margins due to the proprietary costs of disclosure.

Synthesization of macroeconomic policies and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

This study investigated the impact of macroeconomic policy changes in China on the stock markets of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners, whose economies have significant spillover effects. This topic is critical, because the BRI is a pivotal regional cooperation framework, which substantially influences economic dynamics and trade expansion across participating countries. We studied 47 countries from 2006 to 2021, and found a positive relationship between the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and stock return synchronicity in BRI countries. We also explored monetary and fiscal policies and discovered that increased policy intensities correlate with higher synchronicity in BRI stock markets. Additionally, the benefit of macroeconomic policies was more pronounced in countries with closer trade ties and greater policy coordination with China. Further investigation showed that during periods of increased economic policy uncertainties within China and globally, the increase of stock return synchronicity is more pronounced.

The Capital Market Effects of Centralizing Regulated Financial Information

ABSTRACTWe study the capital market effects of information centralization by exploiting the staggered implementation of digital storage and access platforms for regulated financial information (Officially Appointed Mechanisms, or OAMs) in the European Union. We find that the implementation of OAMs results in significant improvements in capital market liquidity, consistent with the notion that OAMs lower investors' processing costs. The findings are more pronounced when processing costs are high to begin with, that is, when firms (1) are small and receive low business press coverage and (2) have high levels of retail ownership. We then identify a mechanism through which centralization facilitates capital market effects: information spillovers. First, we find that liquidity improvements are larger when OAMs have features that easily allow investors to search for peer firm information. Second, liquidity improvements are larger for firms with a high share of industry peers operating on the same OAM and for firms with a high share of small, low‐coverage peers on that OAM. Third, around the annual report release dates of peer firms, focal‐firm liquidity improves and focal‐peer stock return synchronicity increases. Overall, our evidence suggests that, even in a modern information age, information centralization improves capital market liquidity and facilitates the acquisition and use of peer firm information.

Synchronicity and Sentiment: Decoding Earnings Quality and Market Returns in EU under Economic Policy Uncertainty

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on earnings quality and market returns in the European Union, a topic of growing importance in the wake of fluctuating global economic conditions. Using data from 14 EU countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2022, the findings of this study are significant, revealing a clear correlation between heightened economic policy uncertainty and altered investor behavior, as well as a deterioration in earnings quality. We also found that (a) stock market returns are threatened by the shroud of economic uncertainty, (b) higher market sentiment anticipates a negative return but, on the other hand, lower market sentiment expects an increase in the return, (c) stock market returns are higher in the case of highly accurate analyst forecasts, and (d) stock market returns are higher in the case of a higher level of stock return synchronicity. These insights have profound implications for investors, policymakers, and scholars, offering a deeper understanding of market dynamics under uncertainty and guiding more informed decision-making in turbulent economic times.

An Alignment of Financial Signaling and Stock Return Synchronicity

An Alignment of Financial Signaling and Stock Return Synchronicity

Does XBRL Tagging Indicate Disclosure Quality? The Relationship Between XBRL Standard and Extension Tags and Stock Return Synchronicity

ABSTRACT We propose new measures of financial disclosure quality based on XBRL standard and extension tag counts. XBRL is designed to allow users to analyze more financial statement detail, thereby increasing reporting transparency. Thus, firms that use more XBRL standard tags should produce more detailed and comparable financial reports. To test this assertion, we examine the association between XBRL tag counts and stock return synchronicity, which measures the market’s reaction to the quality of firms’ disclosures. We find that firms that use more standard taxonomy tags in their 10-K reports have higher stock return synchronicity after the 10-K filing. However, we find that stock return synchronicity decreases as XBRL extension tag counts increase, suggesting that the use of extension tags reduces disclosure quality. Our findings contribute to the growing body of research on XBRL disclosure. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Stock Return Synchronicity and Profitability: Evidence from India

The current research article studies the stock return synchronicity (SYNCH) and profitability for Indian firms. SYNCH is measured using the value of R2 calculated from the market model for the sample firms. The market model runs regressions of individual stock returns with the Nifty index return. The quantile regression model is run to study the SYNCH and profit after tax (PAT). In addition, the SYNCH and its relation with PAT for low-quantile firms are compared to the SYNCH of high-quantile firms. After controlling for relevant variables, the quantile regression results provide evidence that SYNCH is related to PAT. The reported results also provide evidence that the lower quantile firms differ from higher quantile firms in terms of the impact of PAT on SYNCH.

How economic uncertainty influences the performance of investor perceptions and behavior

In the presence of high uncertainty and asymmetric information, firms might opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. Thus, this paper examines how investor perceptions and risk-taking behavior fluctuate under high economic uncertainty and how earnings quality influences stock return synchronicity and analyst forecast accuracy during periods of high uncertainty. Using a large sample obtained from 24 countries worldwide over the period from 1997 to 2017, we find that investors take a bearish attitude and stocks are more synchronized during years with high economic uncertainty. Furthermore, we find a negative association between analyst forecast accuracy and economic uncertainty. Second, a low level of investor protection indicates a low level of market sentiment. Third, stocks become more synchronous and analyst forecasts are more accurate during periods of high investor sentiment and in the presence of higher levels of earnings quality. Fourth, higher stock return synchronicity implies greater analyst forecast accuracy. Overall, we show that all these effects are more intense during periods of high economic uncertainty.

Annual report readability and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from India

This study investigates the relationship between the comprehensibility of a firm’s annual report and its stock return synchronicity in the Indian market. The study employs the readability of annual reports as a measure for the cost of information processing. The findings suggest that firms with more readable annual reports tend to display higher stock return synchronicity. This relationship implies that more legible financial disclosures are associated with more efficient and transparent capital markets. Additionally, the research discovered that the relationship between readability and stock return synchronicity is particularly pronounced for companies with high institutional investment, high analyst coverage, and lower information asymmetry. The sample size of the study encompasses NSE 500 companies for the period 2015–2016 to 2019–2020.

When stock return synchronicity meets investor sentiment

We examine the sentiment-synchronicity relationship in the Chinese stock market and find that investor sentiment has a significantly positive impact on the stock return synchronicity. Besides, the effect is more pronounced for young, small, volatile, and low-priced stocks. These findings are robust to alternative model specifications, an alternative sentiment proxy, and subperiod analysis.

Market‐wide shocks and the predictive power for the real economy in the Korean stock market

We examine the predictive power of the stock market return for real economic growth corresponding to market-wide shocks in Korea. The periods of large market-wide shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, are characterized by the stock return synchronicity and volatility that can measure price informativeness. We find that the predictive power of the stock market return disappears when stock returns show high synchronicity and volatility, and the deteriorated predictive power is associated with an increase in individual investors' net buying shares. Our finding suggests that, even if the stock market shows outstanding performance following market-wide shocks, this signal should be interpreted with caution because the stock market return may become less informative about fundamentals and lose the predictive power for the real economy.

Analyst Incentives and Stock Return Synchronicity: Evidence from MiFID II

MiFID II affects sell-side analyst incentives in Europe, forcing analysts to justify the value they add. While the number of analysts decreases, the average stock return synchronicity with the market also decreases, implying an improvement in price informativeness. The decrease in synchronicity is larger for firms that are more important for the analysts and brokers covering them. It is also asymmetric and substantially larger for negative market movements. Our results suggest that, by changing incentives, MiFID II not only improves the quality of individual analyst work, but also achieves an improvement in the aggregate stock price informativeness.

Information assimilation and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from an investor relations management platform

In this paper, we employ a unique information assimilation measure for listed firms in China based on their communications with investors through an online platform designated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). We examine whether a firm's efforts in enhancing investors’ information assimilation, such as providing more quality clarifications and explanations, helps facilitate the incorporation of firm-specific information in stock prices and reduces stock return synchronicity. We find robust evidence that more quality-clarifying communications contribute to lower stock return synchronicity after controlling for other information sources, and the decrease in synchronicity is mostly due to increased firm-specific information rather than noise. The causal relationship is established using a stacking DID approach and a PSM method. In a further analysis, we find that more quality communications can strengthen investors’ reaction to good news and smooth their reaction to bad news. Our study provides direct evidence that enhanced information assimilation benefits firms by entrenching more firm-specific information into stock prices.

Stock return synchronicity in a weak information environment: evidence from African markets

PurposeThis study investigates the level of stock return synchronicity in African markets with the aim of establishing whether, contrary to conventional wisdom, stock return synchronicity can be low in countries with relatively weak information environments.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a sample of five African countries (Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa) and a total of 616 firms over the period 2005–2015. This study's main measure of synchronicity is the R2 from a regression of stock returns on index returns. The authors also carry out regression analysis to investigate the main firm-level drivers of synchronicity.FindingsOn average, firms in African markets do not exhibit high levels of stock return synchronicity, providing support for the view that stock return synchronicity can be low in markets with relatively weak transparency. The authors, however, observe an increase in the level of synchronicity during the global financial crisis, notably for Ghana and Kenya. In the regression analysis, the main firm-level driver of synchronicity is firm size, while contrary to some previous studies, ownership structure has no impact. The authors also find evidence of the impact of changes in accounting regulation, notably the mandatory adoption of IFRS, on the level stock synchronicity.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the understanding of stock return synchronicity and how price discovery can vary between different information environments. The authors argue that stock returns in African countries may not always fit the stereotypical view that they are synchronous. The level of synchronicity among firms suggests that corporate events may carry some stock price implications.

Idiosyncratic return variation: Firm-specific information or noise?

There has been a long debate on the interpretation of idiosyncratic return variation. We inform this debate by examining the extent to which stock return synchronicity is associated with post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) in China. We find that firms with higher synchronicity exhibit less pronounced PEAD and that this negative association weakens for firms with high institutional ownership. The findings suggest that in the Chinese stock markets, where retail investors are in the majority, idiosyncratic returns reflect noise rather than firm-specific information on average, and institutional investors play a role in reducing noise in idiosyncratic returns.

Learning from the Joneses: Technology spillover, innovation externality, and stock returns

This paper provides empirical evidence for the role of technology spillover, an important innovation externality, in asset pricing. Using patent and R&D data, I show that firms with more technology spillover earn 7.7% higher annualized returns than firms with less technology spillover. Exploiting three quasi-natural experiments, I find that the return effect is strengthened (attenuated) when there is a plausibly exogenous increase (decrease) in the flow of technological information across firms. I also find that firms with more technology spillover have higher cash flow sensitivity to aggregate consumption, numbers of new products, and stock return synchronicity. These findings are consistent with models on learning about new technology; specifically, spillover enables learning about new technology to facilitate timely and large-scale adoption of new technology, which in turn exposes spillover recipients to additional systematic risk. These findings highlight the influence of innovation externality on stock returns.

Foreign Investment and Stock Price Informativeness: Evidence From the Shanghai (Shenzhen)–Hong Kong Stock Connect

This article investigates the impact of heterogeneous foreign investment on home market stock price informativeness. Evidence from China’s nascent A-share market shows non-segmented foreign investment reduces firms’ stock return synchronicity, while segmented foreign investment does not. Using the Shanghai (Shenzhen)–Hong Kong Stock Connect program as a natural experiment that exogenously increases non-segmented foreign ownership, we find that synchronicity drops significantly for program stocks relative to the control stocks. Our results are most consistent with an “informed trading” explanation, rather than a “learning” or “governance” explanation. These results have policy implications for stock market liberalization programs.

Private information in trades, R2, and large stock price movements

We investigate the relations between trading-conveyed private information and stock return distributions. Using high-frequency measures of private information, we find that private information in trades is associated with lower stock return synchronicity. We also find private information in trades is positively associated with stock price crashes and positive stock price jumps. Our results are robust to several specification checks, including the use of alternative private information proxies, various model specifications, and different time periods. Overall, we demonstrate that trading conveyed private information reduces stock return synchronicity and predicts the frequency of crashes and jumps. Our findings can be useful for market makers, regulators, and traders, who are interested in firm-specific return variation and extreme stock price movements at high frequencies.

Investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity in Tehran Stock Exchange

Investor sentiment and stock return synchronicity in Tehran Stock Exchange

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, TRANSPARANCY AND STOCK RETURN SYNCHRONICITY

This study aims to analyze the effect of corporate governance on transparency as measured by stock return synchronicity. The variables used are board size (commissioner), big4 audit, institutional ownership, market to book, the volatility of firm fundamentals, leverage, and firm size. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear analysis models. This study uses a sample of non-financial business entities listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). The number of samples used in this study was 198 observations. The results showed that the variable board size (commissioner), institutional ownership, and leverage had a positive effect on transparency, and the implied volatility of the firm hurt transparency. Other variables such as big4 audit, market to book ratio, and firm size do not affect transparency.