Restructuring Of Electric Power Industry Research Articles

Panel semiparametric quantile regression neural network for electricity consumption forecasting

Addressing the forecasting issues is one of the core objectives of developing and restructuring of electric power industry in China. However, there are not enough efforts that have been made to develop an accurate electricity consumption forecasting procedure. In this paper, a panel semiparametric quantile regression neural network (PSQRNN) is developed by combining an artificial neural network and semiparametric quantile regression for panel data. By embedding penalized quantile regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge regression and backpropagation, PSQRNN keeps the flexibility of nonparametric models and the interpretability of parametric models simultaneously. The prediction accuracy is evaluated based on China's electricity consumption data set, and the results indicate that PSQRNN performs better compared with three benchmark methods including BP neural network (BP), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Quantile Regression Neural Network (QRNN).

A Novel Evaluation Method of Transmission Grid Performance in Power Spot Market

Power spot market reform has been the focus of China's electric power industry restructuring initiative in recent years. The pace of introducing power spot markets in a number of provinces are now being accelerated. In power spot market, the transaction clearing results are closely coupled with power grid dispatching operations, and the power grid structure could deeply affect market members' earnings. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a method for evaluating transmission power grid performance in the context of power spot market. To this end, this paper presents a novel method for evaluating the operation efficiency of a transmission grid based on locational marginal prices (LMP). Firstly, the main characteristics of power spot market is introduced and the influence mechanism of transmission power grid on the market clearing outcomes is analyzed. The market operation efficiency of the transmission grid is calculated by comparing the market clearing results with or without considering the operational constraints of the transmission grid. Besides, an efficient computing method based on reinforcement learning is proposed to calculate the index. Finally, a case study based on the IEEE-33 bus system shows that this method can quantify the influence of transmission grid operational constraints on the transaction clearing results in spot market. The transmission grid performance index could be useful both in power market trading information disclosure and as a reference index for transmission expansion planning.

An intelligent model to predict the day-ahead deregulated market clearing price: a hybrid NN, PSO and GA approach

Under restructuring of electric power industry and changing traditional vertically integrated electric utility structure to competitive, market clearing price (MCP) prediction models are essential for all generation company (GenCos) for their survival under new deregulated environment. In this paper, a hybrid model is presented to predict hourly electricity MCP. The model contains a Neural Network (NN), Particle swarm optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The NN is used as the major forecasting module to predict the electricity MCP values and PSO applied to improve the traditional neural network learning capability and optimizing the weights of the NN and GA applied to optimize NN architecture. The main contribution includes: presenting a hybrid intelligent model for MCP prediction; applying K-Means algorithm to clustering NN’s test set and seasonality pattern detection; and evaluation of its performance by improved MAE with penalty factor for positive error. It has been tested on Iranian real-world electricity market for the one month of the year 2010-2013 that result shown average weighted MAE for day ahead MCP prediction is equal to 0.12 and forecasting of MCP can be improved by more than 6.7% and 4%in MAE in compare of simple NN and combination of NN and bat algorithm.

Emission Constraint Profit based Unit Commitment Problem using Improved Bacterial Foraging Algorithm

Objectives: The main objective function is to increase the Generation Companies profit and reduce the GHG gas emission of the thermal generating units. Methods/Analysis: During the most recent few centuries, emission control has become a very big problem of worlds concern due to the frequently increasing pollution of earth’s atmosphere. In order to reach the emission control in this paper the Improved Bacterial Foraging Algorithm (IBFA) is proposed. The Bacterial Foraging Algorithm is formed by foraging behavior of E-coli Bacteria in the human intestine. But the BF algorithm leads to some convergence problem while solving the large problems. So for improving the performance of the large problems the new integer coded Improved Bacterial Foraging Algorithm is proposed. Findings: The proposed method is implemented to the IEEE 39 bus10 unit system with one day time period. This proposed algorithm is simulated using MATLAB software and the output results are compared with traditional Unit Commitment Method. Novelty/Improvement: The restructuring of electric power industry is used to reform the electric supply industry. The generation scheduling of thermal generating units in deregulated environment is named as Profit Based Unit Commitment. In PBUC problem the normal Demand constraint is changed to modified power demand constraint to increase the GENeration Companies (GENCO) profit.

A Probabilistic Transmission Planning Framework for Reducing Network Vulnerability to Extreme Events

The restructuring of electric power industry has brought in plenty of challenges for transmission expansion planning (TEP), mainly due to uncertainties. The commonly used probabilistic TEP approach requires the network to meet an acceptable risk criterion. However, a series of blackouts in recent years caused by extreme weather-related events have raised the concerns about network vulnerability through calculating the expected risk value. In this paper, we have proposed the concept that TEP should be economically adjusted in order to make network less vulnerable to extreme events (EEs) caused by climate change, e.g., floods or ice storms. We firstly give the explicit definitions of economic adjustment (EA) index and adjusted risk value. Then we formulate our model as a risk-based decision making process while satisfying the deterministic ${\rm N}-1$ criterion. The proposed approach is tested on the IEEE 118-bus system. Results based on various risk aversion levels are given and comparison studies with other risk-based TEP approaches have been done. Also, sensitivity analysis of parameter setting has been conducted. According to the numerical results, the proposed risk-based TEP model is a flexible decision-making tool, which can help decision makers make a tradeoff between economy and security.

Network model of bilateral power markets based on complex networks

The bilateral power transaction (BPT) mode becomes a typical market organization with the restructuring of electric power industry, the proper model which could capture its characteristics is in urgent need. However, the model is lacking because of this market organization's complexity. As a promising approach to modeling complex systems, complex networks could provide a sound theoretical framework for developing proper simulation model. In this paper, a complex network model of the BPT market is proposed. In this model, price advantage mechanism is a precondition. Unlike other general commodity transactions, both of the financial layer and the physical layer are considered in the model. Through simulation analysis, the feasibility and validity of the model are verified. At same time, some typical statistical features of BPT network are identified. Namely, the degree distribution follows the power law, the clustering coefficient is low and the average path length is a bit long. Moreover, the topological stability of the BPT network is tested. The results show that the network displays a topological robustness to random market member's failures while it is fragile against deliberate attacks, and the network could resist cascading failure to some extent. These features are helpful for making decisions and risk management in BPT markets.

Prediction using learning coefficients for efficient operation of deregulated electricity market

Deregulation and restructuring of electric power industry is occurring in many parts of the world. It is aimed at introducing competition in the supply and retail side of the industry, while maintaining control over the transmission lines. Tracing methodology hence had been introduced to overcome problems related to the Marginal pricing of transmission costs. This paper first analyses of the proportional method which leads to a redefined power tracing method, and then further refines the proposed prediction method by establishing trends of the learning coefficients, using them to examine the relationship between accuracy and number of samples taken. Response of individual generators to change in demand and the corresponding associated losses are also presented. MATLAB with matpower4.0b extension was used to present the study on the IEEE 24bus RTS.

Electric power industry restructuring and ROE: The case of Korea Electric Power Corporation

Korea's electric power industry was previously run by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in a natural monopoly-type structure. As economy of scale was waning in influence and management effectiveness began to increase in importance, KEPCO was divided into six subsidiaries and faced competition beginning in April 2001. This study evaluates the restructuring process for Korea's power industry and analyzes the financial outcomes based on return on equity (ROE). The results show that the ROE ratio increased. In the analysis period (1993–2004), the financial ratio showed a better performance than that before restructuring. However, productivity ratios such as productivity of capital (or gross value added to total assets) and gross value added to property, plant, and equipment decreased compared to the situation before restructuring. It is believed that the results were due to the increased financial leverage of KEPCO. For this reason, KEPCO should make further efforts to manage its debt in a systematic way.

Electric power grid interconnection in Northeast Asia

In spite of regional closeness, energy cooperation in Northeast Asia has remained unexplored. However, this situation appears to be changing. The government of South Korea seems to be very enthusiastic for power grid interconnection between the Russian Far East and South Korea to overcome difficulties in finding new sites for building power facilities to meet its need for increased electricity supplies. This paper analyzes the feasibility of this electric power grid interconnection route. The issues addressed include electricity market structures; the prospects for electric power industry restructuring in the Russian Federation and South Korea; the political issues related to North Korea; the challenges for the governments involved and the obstacles anticipated in moving this project forward; project financing and the roles and concerns from multilateral and regional banks; and institutional framework for energy cooperation. While there are many technical issues that need to be resolved, we think that the great challenge lies in the financing of this commercial project. Thus, the governments of the Russian Federation and South Korea involved in the project need to foster the development of their internal capital markets and to create confidence with international investors. To this end, on energy side, this involves defining a clear energy policy implemented by independent regulators, speeding up the already started but delayed reform process of restructuring electric power industry and markets, and establishing a fair and transparent dispute resolution mechanism in order to reduce non-commercial risks to a minimum. The paper argues that establishing a framework for energy cooperation in this region will contribute positively towards that end, although views differ regarding its specific form. Finally, given that North Korea has a crucial transit role to play and faces a very unstable political situation, it is concluded that moving the project forward needs to be contingent on a resolution of the North Korea's nuclear crisis.

Electric Power Grid Interconnection in Northeast Asia

Despite its regional closeness, energy cooperation in Northeast Asia has remained unexplored. However, this situation appears to be changing. The government of South Korea seems to be very enthusiastic for power grid interconnection between the Russian Far East and South Korea to overcome difficulties in finding new sites for building power facilities to meet its need for increased electricity supplies. This paper analyzes the feasibility of this electric power grid interconnection route. The issues addressed include electricity market structures; the prospects for electric power industry restructuring in the Russian Federation and South Korea; the political issues related to North Korea; the challenges for the governments involved and the obstacles anticipated in moving this project forward; project financing and the roles and concerns from multilateral and regional banks; and institutional framework for energy cooperation. While there are many technical issues that need to resolve, we think that the great challenge lies in the financing of this commercial project. Thus, the governments of the Russian Federation and South Korea involved in the project need to foster the development of their internal capital markets and to create confidence with international investors. To this end, on energy side, this involves defining a clear energy policy implemented by independent regulators, speeding up the already started but delayed reform process of restructuring electric power industry and markets, and establishing a fair and transparent dispute resolution mechanism in order to reduce non-commercial risks to a minimum. The paper argues that establishing a framework for energy cooperation in this region will contribute positively towards that end, although views differ regarding its specific form. Finally, given that North Korea has a crucial transit role to play and faces a very unstable political situation, it is concluded that moving the project forward needs to be contingent on a resolution of the North Korea's nuclear crisis.

Coordination between Generation and Transmission Maintenance Scheduling by Means of Multi-agent Technique

This paper proposes a multi-agent approach to maintenance scheduling in restructured power systems. The restructuring of electric power industry has resulted in market-based approaches for unbundling a multitude of service provided by self-interested entities such as power generating companies (GENCOs), transmission providers (TRANSCOs) and distribution companies (DISCOs). The Independent System Operator (ISO) is responsible for the security of the system operation. The schedule submitted to ISO by GENCOs and TRANSCOs should satisfy security and reliability constraints.The proposed method consists of several GENCO Agents (GAGs), TARNSCO Agents (TAGs) and a ISO Agent(IAG). The IAG’s role in maintenance scheduling is limited to ensuring that the submitted schedules do not cause transmission congestion or endanger the system reliability. From the simulation results, it can be seen the proposed multi-agent approach could coordinate between generation and transmission maintenance schedules.

00/00282 Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring

00/00282 Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring

Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring

In 1978, Congress passed the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) in response to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. One of the unintended results of PURPA has been to show that electric generation was not a natural monopoly and could be opened to competition. Both the theoretical and empirical determinants of cogeneration and how they may be affected by future electric power industry restructuring are important for future industrial generation decisions. This paper explores these determinants and identifies differences between industrial cogenerators which sell power back into the electricity grid (commercial generators) and those which keep all of their electricity generation for internal purposes (self generators). The empirical results indicate that increases in industrial firm technical capabilities tends to increase their probabilities of both commercial and self generating. In addition, the models indicate that increases in retail electricity prices and industrial output increases industrial generation probabilities. The ability to switch fuels enhances industrial generation probabilities, as does a decrease in the price of natural gas. The results also imply that under electric restructuring a number of industrial generators may find that they face a stranded cost problem much like the one faced by their electric utility counterparts.

Power Reliability and Quality Adds Power Value

It is estimated that $27 billion dollars was lost as a result of power mishaps during 1996. Within the industry, there is little agreement on the effect that electric power industry restructuring will have on the future reliability and quality of the system. However, many engineering experts are concerned that the number of mishaps will increase as the electric power industry becomes more competitive because (1) power will travel over longer distances to reach the customer, (2) increased system impedance will make it more susceptible to sags from faults, (3) power suppliers will have less incentive to resolve system problems cooperatively, (4) price cutting pressures will result in decreased system maintenance and (5) more breakdowns will result from antiquated, and ill-maintained, end-user equipment. The 1996 western states outages prompted an immediate focus on reliability issues. Moreover, power suppliers and end-users are beginning to become more aware of the serious legal implications posed by problems in power reliability and quality, as the traditional utility gross negligence liability standards begin to be replaced by breach of contract, negligence and, perhaps, strict liability standards. This has resulted in new interest in power reliability and quality in power contract negotiations, loss control and maintenance,more » and reviews and audits of insurance requirements.« less