Restricted Mean Survival Time Research Articles

In-hospital survival of critically ill COVID-19 patients treated with glucocorticoids: a multicenter real-world data study

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a major challenge to healthcare systems globally. Millions of people have been infected, and millions of deaths have been reported worldwide. Glucocorticoids have attracted worldwide attention for their potential efficacy in the treatment of COVID-19. Various glucocorticoids with different dosages and treatment durations have been studied in patients with different severities, with a suitable dosage and treatment duration not yet defined. This study aimed to investigate whether in-hospital survival differs between critically ill patients treated with low-dose glucocorticoids, high-dose glucocorticoids or no glucocorticoids. All critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit of the Charité Hospital—Universitätsmedizin Berlin between February 2020 and December 2021 with COVID-19 pneumonia receiving supplemental oxygen were eligible to participate in this multicenter real-world data study. Patients were retrospectively assigned to one of three groups: the high corticosteroid dose (HighC) group (receiving 6 mg parenteral dexamethasone or an equivalent corticosteroid dosage for ten days), the low corticosteroid dose (LowC) group (receiving less than 6 mg parenteral dexamethasone or an equivalent corticosteroid dosage for ten days), or the no corticosteroid (NoC) group. Overall survival and risk effects were compared among groups within the total observation period, as well as at 35 days after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to compare the risk of death between the treatment groups. Out of 1561 critically ill COVID-19 patients, 1014 were included in the baseline analysis. In the survival study, 1009 patients were assigned to the NoC (n = 346), HighC (n = 552), or LowC group (n = 111). The baseline characteristics were balanced between groups, except for age, BMI, APACHE II score, SOFA and SAPS II. While the 35-day survival did not show any differences, a landmark analysis of the patients surviving beyond 35 days revealed differences between groups. The restricted mean survival time was 112 days in the LowC group [95% CI: 97 – 128], 133 days in the HighC group [95% CI: 124 – 141] and 144 days in the NoC group [95% CI: 121 – 167]. The multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated that, regardless of age, sex, health status or invasive oxygenation, a low-dose treatment increased the hazard of death of critically ill COVID-19 patients by a factor of 2.09 ([95% CI: 0.99, 4.4], p = 0.05) and a high-dose corticosteroid treatment increased the risk by a factor of 1.07 ([95% CI: 0.53, 2.15], p = 0.85) compared to no treatment with glucocorticoids. The analysis reveals that corticosteroid treatment does not influence the survival of critically ill COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit within 35 days. Our evaluations further suggest that regardless of ventilation status, the decision-making process for administering corticosteroid therapy should account for the individual severity of the illness.

#2576 Effect of dialysis versus conservative care on all-cause mortality in older patients with advanced CKD: nationwide Swedish cohort study

Abstract Background and Aims Conservative care is emerging as an alternative to dialysis in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, high-quality evidence comparing the effect of dialysis versus conservative care on patient survival is lacking. Previous observational studies suffered from avoidable biases, such as immortal time bias and lead time bias, and adjusted for limited confounders. This study aimed to assess the effects of dialysis versus conservative care on mortality in older patients with advanced CKD. Method The target trial emulation framework was used to design and analyze this observational study. We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study using data from the Swedish Renal Registry between 2007-2021. We included all nephrologist-referred patients with eGFR < 20 ml/min/1.73 m2 who had a registered decision for dialysis or conservative care. Eligible patients were required to be ≥ 65 years with a Davies Comorbidity Score ≥ 2 or ≥ 80 years. The primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for 50 baseline confounders, including demographics, comorbidities, medication use, blood pressure, laboratory measurements, hospitalizations, and calendar year. Patients in the non-overlapping region of the propensity score distribution were excluded since they had an absolute indication for dialysis or conservative care. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate intention-to-treat hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to estimate absolute risks. Additionally, we calculated the 5-year restricted mean survival times (RMST) and the 5-year RMST difference between dialysis and conservative care arms. To test the robustness and consistency of our main results, we performed a subgroup analysis in patients aged ≥80. Results Of 2834 eligible patients, 1903 had a registered choice for dialysis and 931 for conservative care. The median age was 81 years, 36.1% were female and median eGFR was 13.1 ml/min/1.73 m2. During the 5-year follow-up period, 29 conservative care patients started dialysis and 430 patients died before starting dialysis. After weighting, all confounders were balanced (standardized mean difference < 0.10). Compared to dialysis, conservative care was associated with a higher absolute 5-year risk of death (91.8% vs. 74.1%), corresponding with an absolute risk difference of 17.6% (95% CI 13.3%-21.9%) (Fig. 1). The adjusted hazard ratio for conservative care vs. dialysis was 2.3 (95% CI 2.0-2.6). The 5-year restricted mean survival times were 34.8 (95% CI 33.2-37.3) months for dialysis and 21.5 (95% CI 19.4-23.6) months for conservative care groups. The 5-year RMST difference was 13.3 months (95% CI 10.8-16.6), meaning that dialysis patients would live on average 13.3 months longer over a 5-year follow-up period than conservative care patients (Table 1). The results were consistent among people ≥ 80 years (adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.9-2.5; 5-year RMST difference 9.4 months, 95% CI 7.2-13.9). Conclusion In older patients with advanced CKD under nephrologist care, conservative care was associated with a higher risk of mortality than dialysis. These findings could improve the shared decision-making process with patients on the choice of kidney failure treatment.

Increased coexpression of PD-L1 and IDO1 is associated with poor overall survival in patients with NK/T-cell lymphoma.

Immunotherapy with programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) blockade was effective in patients with NK/T-cell lymphoma. In addition to PD-L1, indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase-1 (IDO1) is one of the most promising immunotherapeutic targets. High proportions of PD-L1 and IDO1 proteins were observed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) from 230 newly diagnosed patients with NK/T lymphoma with tissue samples from three cancer centers and were associated with poor overall survival (OS) in patients with NK/T lymphoma. Importantly, the coexpression of PD-L1 and IDO1 was related to poor OS and short restricted mean survival time in patients with NK/T lymphoma and was an independent prognostic factor in the training cohorts, and which was also validated in 58 NK/T lymphoma patients (GSE90597). Moreover, a nomogram model constructed with PD-L1 and IDO1 expression together with age could provide concise and precise predictions of OS rates and median survival time. The high-risk group in the nomogram model had a positive correlation with CD4 + T-cell infiltration in the validation cohort, as did the immunosuppressive factor level. Therefore, high PD-L1 and IDO1 expression was associated with poor OS in patients with NK/T lymphoma. PD-L1 and IDO1 might be potential targets for future immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy for NK/T lymphoma.

Bayesian pairwise meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards: A simulation study of flexible parametric, piecewise exponential and fractional polynomial models.

Traditionally, meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes reports a single pooled hazard ratio assuming proportional hazards (PH). For health technology assessment evaluations, hazard ratios are frequently extrapolated across a lifetime horizon. However, when treatment effects vary over time, an assumption of PH is not always valid. The Royston-Parmar (RP), piecewise exponential (PE), and fractional polynomial (FP) models can accommodate non-PH and provide plausible extrapolations of survival curves beyond observed data. Simulation study to assess and compare the performance of RP, PE, and FP models in a Bayesian framework estimating restricted mean survival time difference (RMSTD) at 50 years from a pairwise meta-analysis with evidence of non-PH. Individual patient data were generated from a mixture Weibull distribution. Twelve scenarios were considered varying the amount of follow-up data, number of trials in a meta-analysis, non-PH interaction coefficient, and prior distributions. Performance was assessed through bias and mean squared error. Models were applied to a metastatic breast cancer example. FP models performed best when the non-PH interaction coefficient was 0.2. RP models performed best in scenarios with complete follow-up data. PE models performed well on average across all scenarios. In the metastatic breast cancer example, RMSTD at 50-years ranged from -14.6 to 8.48 months. Synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and estimation of RMSTD in the presence of non-PH can be challenging and computationally intensive. Different approaches make different assumptions regarding extrapolation and sensitivity analyses varying key assumptions are essential to check the robustness of conclusions to different assumptions for the underlying survival function.

There is More to Length of Survival than Survival: Endpoints in Oncology Trials.

Progression free survival as a primary endpoint for comparative trials does not fully capture the therapeutic risk/benefit ratio. Additionally, summarization of the treatment effect via a hazard ratio is problematic when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. Restricted mean survival time metrics may address these challenges but have other limitations.

Time- vs Step-Based Physical Activity Metrics for Health

Current US physical activity (PA) guidelines prescribe moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) time of at least 150 minutes per week for health. An analogous step-based recommendation has not been issued due to insufficient evidence. To examine the associations of MVPA time and step counts with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This cohort study analyzed data from an ongoing follow-up study of surviving participants of the Women's Health Study, a randomized clinical trial conducted from 1992 to 2004 in the US to evaluate use of low-dose aspirin and vitamin E for preventing cancer and CVD. Participants were 62 years or older who were free from CVD and cancer, completed annual questionnaires, and agreed to measure their PA with an accelerometer as part of a 2011-2015 ancillary study. Participants were followed up through December 31, 2022. Time spent in MVPA and step counts, measured with an accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. The associations of MVPA time and step counts with all-cause mortality and CVD (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD mortality) adjusted for confounders. Cox proportional hazards regression models, restricted mean survival time differences, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the associations. A total of 14 399 women (mean [SD] age, 71.8 [5.6] years) were included. The median (IQR) MVPA time and step counts were 62 (20-149) minutes per week and 5183 (3691-7001) steps per day, respectively. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 9.0 (8.0-9.9) years, the hazard ratios (HR) per SD for all-cause mortality were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.90) for MVPA time and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) for step counts. Greater MVPA time and step counts (top 3 quartiles vs bottom quartile) were associated with a longer period free from death: 2.22 (95% CI, 1.58-2.85) months and 2.36 (95% CI, 1.73-2.99) months at 9 years follow-up, respectively. The AUCs for all-cause mortality from MVPA time and step counts were similar: 0.55 (95% CI, 0.52-0.57) for both metrics. Similar associations of these 2 metrics with CVD were observed. Results of this study suggest that among females 62 years or older, MVPA time and step counts were qualitatively similar in their associations with all-cause mortality and CVD. Step count-based goals should be considered for future guidelines along with time-based goals, allowing for the accommodation of personal preferences.

Survival outcomes following urgent lung transplantation in France and the USA

IntroductionLung graft allocation can be based on a score (Lung Allocation Score) as in the USA or sequential proposals combined with a discrete priority model as in France. We aimed...

Comparative effectiveness of first-line systemic treatments for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

No head-to-head trials had been performed to estimate the relative effectiveness of poly ADP-ribose polymerase inhibitor (PARPi) and androgen receptor signaling inhibitor (ARSi) in the first-line treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). We aimed to perform a systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of various systemic treatment agents for patients with mCRPC. A comprehensive literature search was conducted for abstracts and full-text articles from the database's inception through April 27, 2023. The study concentrated on assessing radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) for both overall and homologous recombination repair mutation (HRRm) population, with overall survival (OS) as the secondary measure. Under the Bayesian framework, the overall effect was pooled using the fixed-effects model in base case analysis. Scenario analysis using restricted mean survival time (RMST) methods was performed to test the robustness of the results. Nine studies with 6,830 patients and 8 unique treatment options were included. Network meta-analysis demonstrated that talazoparib in combination with enzalutamide (TALA + ENZA; overall population, hazard ratio [HR], 0.20; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.16-0.26; RMST, 3.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.46-4.60; HRRm population, HR, 0.15; 95% CrI: 0.09-0.23; RMST, 4.14; 95% CI 2.84-5.39) was superior to other treatments in the first-line setting in terms of rPFS. The results of Bayesian framework and RMST models showed consistent efficacy ranks. When extrapolated to overall survival benefit, within the Bayesian framework, olaparib plus abiraterone acetate and prednisone (OLAP + AAP) achieved the highest OS benefit for the overall population, which was not statistically significant when compared to TALA + ENZA. However, TALA + ENZA achieved the highest OS benefit at 3years by applying RMST. We suggest that talazoparib in combination with enzalutamide is probably a preferred treatment agent for the overall population and HRRm patients with mCRPC. Given the limitations of network framework and the modeling assumptions undertaken to finalize the analyses, results should be cautiously interpreted.

Evaluation of sex inequity in lung-cancer-specific survival.

Whether sex is an independent prognostic factor in lung cancer survival is the subject of ongoing debate. Both large national registries and single hospital studies have shown conflicting findings. In this study, we explore the impact of sex on lung-cancer-specific survival in an unselected population that is well-characterized with respect to stage and other covariates. All patients diagnosed with lung cancer at a single hospital serving a whole and defined region in Southern Norway during the 10 years 2007-2016 were included. Follow-up data were available for at least 56 months for all patients. Analyses were adjusted for stage, treatment, performance status, smoking, age, histology, epidermal growth factor receptor/anaplastic lymphoma kinase/immunotherapy treatment and period. Differences in lung-cancer-specific survival by sex were explored using restricted mean survival times (RMST). Of the 1,261 patients diagnosed with lung cancer, 596 (47%) were females and 665 (53%) males, with mean ages of 68.5 and 69.5 years, respectively. The observed 5-year lung-cancer-specific survival rate was 27.4% (95% CI 23.7, 31.2) in females and 21.4% (95% CI 18.2, 24.8) in males. However, after adjustment for covariates, no significant differences by sex were observed. The 5-year RMST was 0.9 months shorter (95% CI -2.1, 0.31, p = 0.26) in males compared to females. In this cohort, sex was not associated with a difference in lung-cancer-specific survival after adjusting for clinical and biological factors. Imbalance in stage at diagnosis was the main contributor to the observed difference in lung-cancer-specific survival by sex.

Mitraclip Versus Medical Therapy or Surgery in Patients With Mitral Regurgitation: Long-Term Outcomes Determined by the Reconstruction of Individual Patient Data.

Although MitraClip has been studied in numerous trials, its evidence in the long term is basedon a few original studies. We used an original technique of evidence synthesis to review long-termcomparative trialsevaluating MitraClip. We searched the PubMed database to select long-term comparative trials of MitraClip. The endpoint was all-cause mortality (minimum follow-up, one year). Included trials were analyzed using theIPDfromKM (reconstruct Individual Patient Data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves)method to reconstruct individual patient data from Kaplan-Meier curves. Standard survivalstatistics were used to interpret these long-term efficacy data. The survival benefit per patient was estimatedfrom the restricted mean survival time (RMST). Six comparative studies of MitraClip were included; 973 patients were treated with MitraClip (six arms), 717 with medical therapy (five arms), and 80 with surgical repair or replacement (one arm). In our mainanalysis, the outcomes observed in patients treated with MitraClip were significantly better than thoseof medical therapy (hazard ratio for all-cause mortality, 0.5276; 95% confidence interval, 0.4412 to 0.6309;p < 0.001); the number of patients treated with surgery was too small to make reliable comparisons. Mediansurvival was 30.4 months for medical therapy versus not reached for the other two groups. RMST was 43.931 and33.756 monthsfor MitraClip and controls, respectively, yielding a gain per patient of 10.17 months (95%confidence interval, 7.47 to 12.88). In our simplified cost-effectiveness evaluation, a gain of approximately10 months per patient compared favorably with the device cost.Our analysis provided an original interpretation of the long-termevidence available on MitraClip.

Does Thoracic Duct Ligation at the Time of Esophagectomy Impact Long-Term Survival? An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

Background: Thoracic duct ligation (TDL) during esophagectomy has been proposed to reduce the risk of postoperative chylothorax. Because of its role in immunoregulation, some authors argued that it had an unfavorable TDL effect on survival. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of TDL on overall survival (OS). Methods: PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched through December 2023. The primary outcome was 5-year OS. The restricted mean survival time difference (RMSTD), hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used as pooled effect size measures. The GRADE methodology was used to summarize the certainty of the evidence. Results: Five studies (3291 patients) were included. TDL was reported in 54% patients. The patients' age ranged from 49 to 69, 76% were males, and BMI ranged from 18 to 26. At the 5-year follow-up, the combined effect from the multivariate meta-analysis is -3.5 months (95% CI -6.1, -0.8) indicating that patients undergoing TDL lived 3.5 months less compared to those without TDL. TDL was associated with a significantly higher hazard for mortality at 12 months (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.73), 24 months (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.12-1.35), and 28 months (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28). TDL and noTDL seem comparable in terms of the postoperative risk for chylothorax (RR = 0.66; p = 0.35). Conclusions: In this study, concurrent TDL was associated with reduced 5-year OS after esophagectomy. This may suggest the need of a rigorous follow-up within the first two years of follow-up.

Individualized survival prediction and surgery recommendation for patients with glioblastoma.

There is a lack of individualized evidence on surgical choices for glioblastoma (GBM) patients. This study aimed to make individualized treatment recommendations for patients with GBM and to determine the importance of demographic and tumor characteristic variables in the selection of extent of resection. We proposed Balanced Decision Ensembles (BDE) to make survival predictions and individualized treatment recommendations. We developed several DL models to counterfactually predict the individual treatment effect (ITE) of patients with GBM. We divided the patients into the recommended (Rec.) and anti-recommended groups based on whether their actual treatment was consistent with the model recommendation. The BDE achieved the best recommendation effects (difference in restricted mean survival time (dRMST): 5.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.40-7.39; hazard ratio (HR): 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77), followed by BITES and DeepSurv. Inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted HR, IPTW-adjusted OR, natural direct effect, and control direct effect demonstrated better survival outcomes of the Rec. group. The ITE calculation method is crucial, as it may result in better or worse recommendations. Furthermore, the significant protective effects of machine recommendations on survival time and mortality indicate the superiority of the model for application in patients with GBM. Overall, the model identifies patients with tumors located in the right and left frontal and middle temporal lobes, as well as those with larger tumor sizes, as optimal candidates for SpTR.

Clinical and Genomic-Based Decision Support System to Define the Optimal Timing of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes

PURPOSE Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is the only potentially curative treatment for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Several issues must be considered when evaluating the benefits and risks of HSCT for patients with MDS, with the timing of transplantation being a crucial question. Here, we aimed to develop and validate a decision support system to define the optimal timing of HSCT for patients with MDS on the basis of clinical and genomic information as provided by the Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M). PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied a retrospective population of 7,118 patients, stratified into training and validation cohorts. A decision strategy was built to estimate the average survival over an 8-year time horizon (restricted mean survival time [RMST]) for each combination of clinical and genomic covariates and to determine the optimal transplantation policy by comparing different strategies. RESULTS Under an IPSS-M based policy, patients with either low and moderate-low risk benefited from a delayed transplantation policy, whereas in those belonging to moderately high-, high- and very high-risk categories, immediate transplantation was associated with a prolonged life expectancy (RMST). Modeling decision analysis on IPSS-M versus conventional Revised IPSS (IPSS-R) changed the transplantation policy in a significant proportion of patients (15% of patient candidate to be immediately transplanted under an IPSS-R–based policy would benefit from a delayed strategy by IPSS-M, whereas 19% of candidates to delayed transplantation by IPSS-R would benefit from immediate HSCT by IPSS-M), resulting in a significant gain-in-life expectancy under an IPSS-M–based policy ( P = .001). CONCLUSION These results provide evidence for the clinical relevance of including genomic features into the transplantation decision making process, allowing personalizing the hazards and effectiveness of HSCT in patients with MDS.

Cost-effectiveness of outpatient adherence to recommendations for monitoring of patients hospitalized for heart failure.

A set of indicators to assess the quality of care for patients hospitalized for heart failure was developed by an expert working group of the Italian Health Ministry. Because a better performance profile measured using these indicators does not necessarily translate to better outcomes, a study to validate these indicators through their relationship with measurable clinical outcomes and healthcare costs supported by the Italian National Health System was carried out. Residents of four Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, Lazio, and Sicily) who were newly hospitalized for heart failure (irrespective of stage and New York Heart Association class) during 2014-2015 entered in the cohort and followed up until 2019. Adherence to evidence-based recommendations [i.e. renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAS) inhibitors, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), and echocardiograms (ECCs)] experienced during the first year after index discharge was assessed. Composite clinical outcomes (cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause mortality) and healthcare costs (hospitalizations, drugs, and outpatient services) were assessed during the follow-up. The restricted mean survival time at 5years (denoted as the number of months free from clinical outcomes), the hazard of clinical outcomes (according to the Cox model), and average annual healthcare cost (expressed in euros per person-year) were compared between adherent and non-adherent patients. A non-parametric bootstrap method based on 1000 resamples was used to account for uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates. A total of 41406 patients were included in this study (46.3% males, mean age 76.9±9.4years). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, MRAs, and ECCs were 64%, 57%, 62%, and 20% among the cohort members, respectively. Compared with non-adherent patients, those who adhered to ECCs, RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs experienced (i) a delay in the composite outcome of 1.6, 1.9, 1.6, and 0.6months and reduced risks of 9% (95% confidence interval, 2-14%), 11% (7-14%), 8% (5-11%), and 4% (-1-8%), respectively; and (ii) lower (€262, €92, and €571 per year for RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs, respectively) and higher costs (€511 per year for ECC). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs showed a delay in the composite outcome and a saving of costs in 98%, 84%, and 93% of the 1000 bootstrap replications, respectively. Strict monitoring of patients with heart failure through regular clinical examinations and drug therapies should be considered the cornerstone of national guidelines and audits.

Prognostic Implications of Residual Tricuspid Regurgitation Grading After Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Repair.

The safety profile of transcatheter tricuspid valve (TTV) repair techniques is well established, but residual tricuspid regurgitation (TR) remains a concern. The authors sought to assess the impact of residual TR severity post-TTV repair on survival. We evaluated the survival rate at 2 years of 613 patients with severe isolated functional TR who underwent TTV repair in TRIGISTRY according to the severity of residual TR at discharge using a 3-grade (mild, moderate, and severe) or 4-grade scheme (mild, mild to moderate, moderate to severe, and severe). Residual TR was none/mild in 33%, moderate in 52%, and severe in 15%. The 2-year adjusted survival rates significantly differed between the 3 groups (85%, 70%, and 44%, respectively; restricted mean survival time [RMST]: P= 0.0001). When the 319 patients with moderate residual TR were subdivided into mild to moderate (n=201, 33%) and moderate to severe (n=118, 19%), the adjusted survival rate was also significantly different between groups (85%, 80%, 55%, and 44%, respectively; RMST: P = 0.001). Survival was significantly lower in patients with moderate to severe residual TR compared to patients with mild to moderate residual TR (P = 0.006). No difference in survival rates was observed between patients with no/mild and mild to moderate residual TR (P = 0.67) or between patients with moderate to severe and severe residual TR (P = 0.96). The moderate residual TR group was heterogeneous and encompassed patients with markedly different clinical outcomes. Refining TR grade classification with a more granular 4-grade scheme improved outcome prediction. Our results highlight the importance of achieving a mild to moderate or lower residual TR grade during TTV repair, which could define a successful intervention.

Visualizing hypothesis tests in survival analysis under anticipated delayed effects.

What can be considered an appropriate statistical method for the primary analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) with a time-to-event endpoint when we anticipate non-proportional hazards owing to a delayed effect? This question has been the subject of much recent debate. The standard approach is a log-rank test and/or a Cox proportional hazards model. Alternative methods have been explored in the statistical literature, such as weighted log-rank tests and tests based on the Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST). While weighted log-rank tests can achieve high power compared to the standard log-rank test, some choices of weights may lead to type-I error inflation under particular conditions. In addition, they are not linked to a mathematically unambiguous summary measure. Test statistics based on the RMST, on the other hand, allow one to investigate the average difference between two survival curves up to a pre-specified time point -a mathematically unambiguous summary measure. However, by emphasizing differences prior to , such test statistics may not fully capture the benefit of a new treatment in terms of long-term survival. In this article, we introduce a graphical approach for direct comparison of weighted log-rank tests and tests based on the RMST. This new perspective allows a more informed choice of the analysis method, going beyond power and type I error comparison.

Assessing the effect of metastasis-directed therapy in oligometastatic disease using the restricted mean survival time.

Metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is emerging as an effective therapeutic option for oligometastatic disease (OMD). However, a lack of phase III data, consensus guidelines, and toxicity concerns limit its widespread use. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) routinely report hazard ratios (HRs) and medians that lack clear clinical and robust interpretation. Restricted-mean survival time (RMST) is the duration of time a patient is expected to survive over the follow-up period, providing a robust and interpretable alternative. We analyzed the efficacy of SBRT using RMST. All registered RCTs of ablative radiotherapy in OMD in ClinicalTrials.gov through 2022 were identified. Data were reconstructed from Kaplan-Meier curves, and the HRs and RMST differences were estimated for surrogate endpoints (SEs) and overall survival (OS). Six studies comprising 426 patients met the inclusion criteria. The RMST differences for SEs ranged from 4.6 months in a study by Iyengar et al. to 11.1 months in SABR-COMET. The RMST differences for OS in SABR-COMET, Gomez et al., and SINDAS studies were 12.6, 15 and 7.9 months, respectively. RMST demonstrates the efficacy of local treatment in OMD. Representing the expected survival time, this method effectively communicates outcomes to patients and clinicians.

Extended pleurectomy decortication and chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for pleural mesothelioma (MARS 2): a phase 3 randomised controlled trial

Extended pleurectomy decortication for complete macroscopic resection for pleural mesothelioma has never been evaluated in a randomised trial. The aim of this study was to compare outcomes after extended pleurectomy decortication plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone. MARS 2 was a phase 3, national, multicentre, open-label, parallel two-group, pragmatic, superiority randomised controlled trial conducted in the UK. The trial took place across 26 hospitals (21 recruiting only, one surgical only, and four recruiting and surgical). Following two cycles of chemotherapy, eligible participants with pleural mesothelioma were randomly assigned (1:1) to surgery and chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone using a secure web-based system. Individuals aged 16 years or older with resectable pleural mesothelioma and adequate organ and lung function were eligible for inclusion. Participants in the chemotherapy only group received two to four further cycles of chemotherapy, and participants in the surgery and chemotherapy group received pleurectomy decortication or extended pleurectomy decortication, followed by two to four further cycles of chemotherapy. It was not possible to mask allocation because the intervention was a major surgical procedure. The primary outcome was overall survival, defined as time from randomisation to death from any cause. Analyses were done on the intention-to-treat population for all outcomes, unless specified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02040272, and is closed to new participants. Between June 19, 2015, and Jan 21, 2021, of 1030 assessed for eligibility, 335 participants were randomly assigned (169 to surgery and chemotherapy, and 166 to chemotherapy alone). 291 (87%) participants were men and 44 (13%) women, and 288 (86%) were diagnosed with epithelioid mesothelioma. At a median follow-up of 22·4 months (IQR 11·3-30·8), median survival was shorter in the surgery and chemotherapy group (19·3 months [IQR 10·0-33·7]) than in the chemotherapy alone group (24·8 months [IQR 12·6-37·4]), and the difference in restricted mean survival time at 2 years was -1·9 months (95% CI -3·4 to -0·3, p=0·019). There were 318 serious adverse events (grade ≥3) in the surgery group and 169 in the chemotherapy group (incidence rate ratio 3·6 [95% CI 2·3 to 5·5], p<0·0001), with increased incidence of cardiac (30 vs 12; 3·01 [1·13 to 8·02]) and respiratory (84 vs 34; 2·62 [1·58 to 4·33]) disorders, infection (124 vs 53; 2·13 [1·36 to 3·33]), and additional surgical or medical procedures (15 vs eight; 2·41 [1·04 to 5·57]) in the surgery group. Extended pleurectomy decortication was associated with worse survival to 2 years, and more serious adverse events for individuals with resectable pleural mesothelioma, compared with chemotherapy alone. National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (15/188/31), Cancer Research UK Feasibility Studies Project Grant (A15895).

Reverse total shoulder replacement versus anatomical total shoulder replacement for osteoarthritis: population based cohort study using data from the National Joint Registry and Hospital Episode Statistics for England

ObjectivesTo answer a national research priority by comparing the risk-benefit and costs associated with reverse total shoulder replacement (RTSR) and anatomical total shoulder replacement (TSR) in patients having elective primary...

Determining individual suitability for neoadjuvant systemic therapy in breast cancer patients through deep learning.

The survival advantage of neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST) for breast cancer patients remains controversial, especially when considering the heterogeneous characteristics of individual patients. To discern the variability in responses to breast cancer treatment at the individual level and propose personalized treatment recommendations utilizing deep learning (DL). Six models were developed to offer individualized treatment suggestions. Outcomes for patients whose actual treatments aligned with model recommendations were compared to those whose did not. The influence of certain baseline features of patients on NST selection was visualized and quantified by multivariate logistic regression and Poisson regression analyses. Our study included 94,487 female breast cancer patients. The Balanced Individual Treatment Effect for Survival data (BITES) model outperformed other models in performance, showing a statistically significant protective effect with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted baseline features [IPTW-adjusted hazard ratio: 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.41-0.64; IPTW-adjusted risk difference: 21.46, 95% CI 18.90-24.01; IPTW-adjusted difference in restricted mean survival time: 21.51, 95% CI 19.37-23.80]. Adherence to BITES recommendations is associated with reduced breast cancer mortality and fewer adverse effects. BITES suggests that patients with TNM stage IIB, IIIB, triple-negative subtype, a higher number of positive axillary lymph nodes, and larger tumors are most likely to benefit from NST. Our results demonstrated the potential of BITES to aid in clinical treatment decisions and offer quantitative treatment insights. In our further research, these models should be validated in clinical settings and additional patient features as well as outcome measures should be studied in depth.