Carrying Capacity Of Resources Research Articles

Impact of China’s Energy-Consuming Right Trading on Urban Land Green Utilization Efficiency

China is facing development challenges, such as the red line of arable land, resource shortage, and tightening ecological and environmental constraints. In this context, improving land green utilization efficiency (LGUE) is not only an important undertaking to optimize the spatial layout of the country and improve resource carrying capacity but also an inevitable choice for the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. China’s energy-consuming right trading (ECRT) is an important energy transition demonstration policy; however, its effect on LGUE has yet to be scientifically evaluated in academic research. Using panel data of 260 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2021, this study first uses a difference-in-difference model to test the effect of ECRT on LGUE, analyze its transmission mechanism, and further examine the impact of urban characteristic heterogeneity on policy effects from multiple perspectives. Results show the following: (1) The pilot policy of ECRT significantly improves urban LGUE, as confirmed by robustness tests. (2) The ECRT pilot policy enhances urban technological innovation, promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, and thereby improves LGUE. (3) The ECRT has a more significant enhancement effect on the central and western cities, large-scale cities, and resource-based cities. (4) Government environmental protection assessment can have a positive moderating effect, that is, further amplifying the effect of ECRT on improving urban LGUE. In conclusion, we should solidly promote the construction of a unified national ECRT market, formulate policy implementation plans tailored to local conditions, and steadily improve LGUE. To a certain extent, this paper reveals the inherent logic of how ECRT affects LGUE, which provides opportunities for cities to improve LGUE through ECRT, and provides reference for promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.

Evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area

From four dimensions of resource, environment, ecology (green ecology) and social economy, correlation analysis method and principal component analysis method of SPSS are used to screen evaluation indexes to design a scientific and reasonable evaluation indexes system of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area in line with regional characteristics. Based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, resource and environmental carrying capacity of the New Area are evaluated. The results show that: the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the New Area from 2014 to 2018 are 0.3229, 0.3556, 0.3521, 0.3859 and 0.4445 respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.32% and a steady growth trend. Then, some countermeasures to improve resource and environmental carrying capacity of the New Area are presented from three aspects of development and utilization of land resource, development and utilization of water resource and protection and utilization of water environment.

Analysis of the coupling coordination of livestock production, residential consumption, and resource and environmental carrying capacity in China

Analysis of the coupling coordination of livestock production, residential consumption, and resource and environmental carrying capacity in China

Model analysis and data validation of structured prevention and control interruptions of emerging infectious diseases.

The design of optimized non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is critical to the effective control of emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, A/H1N1 and COVID-19 and to ensure that numbers of hospitalized cases do not exceed the carrying capacity of medical resources. To address this issue, we formulated a classic SIR model to include a close contact tracing strategy and structured prevention and control interruptions (SPCIs). The impact of the timing of SPCIs on the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals and on the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas (i.e. implementing a dynamic zero-case policy) were analyzed numerically and theoretically. These analyses revealed that to minimize the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals, the optimal time to initiate SPCIs is when they can control the peak value of a second rebound of the epidemic to be equal to the first peak value. More individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention during SPCIs. The longer the duration of the intervention and the stronger the contact tracing intensity during SPCIs, the more effective they are in shortening the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas. The dynamic evolution of the number of isolated and non-isolated individuals, including two peaks and long tail patterns, have been confirmed by various real data sets of multiple-wave COVID-19 epidemics in China. Our results provide important theoretical support for the adjustment of NPI strategies in relation to a given carrying capacity of medical resources.

Spatial identification and priority conservation areas determination of wilderness in China

In the context of an increasingly severe ecological crisis and accelerating ecological civilization construction, the specific regional differences as well as the natural environment of China restrict the uniform population distribution and the social economy's spatial layout, forming a large and widely distributed wilderness. The post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) takes the protection of wilderness areas as one of the key conservation goals and brings new opportunities for wilderness protection. Objective and accurate identification of the spatial range of wilderness and the determination of the focus of wilderness protection are significant for carrying out resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluations, biodiversity conservation, and national park system construction. At present, fewer studies pay attention to wilderness area identification and protection in China. In this study, we used the MaxEnt and Marxan models to establish a framework to identify the spatial distribution and conservation priorities of China's wilderness as well as guide wilderness conservation. The wilderness areas in China show a large-scale, concentrated distribution in space and a small, scattered distribution. From 2000 to 2020, the wilderness area decreased from 3.6323 million km2 in 2000 to 2.9142 million km2 in 2020, and the wilderness area reduction rate from 2000 to 2010 was greater than that in 2010–2020. From 2000 to 2020, the center of gravity of the wilderness area shifted 893.5 km to the southwest. Wilderness center of gravity relocated from Pingluo County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to Delingha City, Qinghai Province. Considering conservation objectives and conservation costs, we determined that the wilderness area in urgent need of protection is 55,100 km2, accounting for 1.8 % of the total wilderness area. It is mainly distributed in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (13,000 km2), Yunnan Province (12,000 km2), and Sichuan Province (5300 km2). This methodological framework can provide an important reference for governments in dealing with global climate change, maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem diversity, and promoting sustainable human development.

Framework of land use planning for an energy producing city of Northwest China based on water-energy-food nexus

The development of cities and their industries is constrained by the water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus) formed under certain biophysical conditions. Urban-scale WEF nexus research is very different from macroscale (global or national) research. There is a need for quantitative optimization of several economic sectors, as well as spatial heterogeneity of resource endowments, to develop policies that are distinctive for different levels of endowments. Currently, China is implementing Territorial Spatial Planning (TSP) at all administrative levels throughout the country. Its theoretical basis is to realize the overall management of urban ecological protection land, urban expansion, and industrial growth by measuring the resource carrying capacity and land development suitability of each plot. This provides an opportunity to explore the interconnections between WEF nexus at urban scale by examining the wide range of urban resource availability. Here, we propose the WEF-TSP framework, which helps to realize the multi-objective development needs of regional ecological protection, urban expansion, agricultural development, and energy production in a certain city and provides a decision-making basis for future urban land spatial planning. Ordos, a city in China recognized for its significant energy reserves, has been selected as the subject of a case study. Combined with the spatial heterogeneity of Ordos's resource endowment and focusing on the strong constraints of water resources and ecological protection, this study explores the urban land spatial layout scheme of Ordos in 2030 under different energy development scenarios. It can also provide a reference for other cities in China and even the world to study the spatial layout of urban land use and industrial development based on the WEF nexus.

Resource and environmental carrying capacity study of Kubai Coalfield in Xinjiang based on RS and GIS

The study of resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is critical to the ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of mining areas. Using multi-source remote sensing data such as Landsat5 and Landsat8, as well as socioeconomic statistics, the impact mechanism of the Kubai Coalfield's RECC was analyzed using the theory of Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR), and a three-level evaluation index system of 1-5-18 was proposed. The cloud model enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to estimate the weight value of each assessment index. The Kubai Coalfield's RECC was calculated by superimposing the weights of different variables, and the contributing elements and changing trends of the RECC were investigated. The RECC of the Kubai Coalfield is highest in the east, second highest in the west, and lowest in the center, according to the results. The vegetation cover of the mining area has a direct impact on the RECC, and mining activity is the primary cause of the change in carrying capacity; however, coal mining has a lagging effect on the RECC. The study's findings serve as a guide for the quantitative assessment of RECC of Xinjiang's environmentally vulnerable mining sites and offer theoretical justification for the approach taken in the study of RECC of mining areas and the preservation of ecological environment sources.

Spatial suitability evaluation based on multisource data and random forest algorithm: a case study of Yulin, China

With a large population and rapid urbanization, there are still many challenges to optimize the ecological-agricultural-urban space. Here, taking Yulin City, situated on the Loess Plateau of China as a case in point, we explored the spatial suitability evaluation of ecological-agricultural-urban space. Building upon the Chinese government’s concept of “resource and environmental carrying capacity and territorial development suitability evaluation” (hereinafter referred to as “double evaluation”), this study applies machine learning to the planning of ecological-agricultural-urban space. It explores an intelligent evaluation method for land space patterns using multi-source data. Based on the random forest (RF) algorithm and geographic information system (GIS), resulting in evaluated spatial patterns for ecological-agricultural-urban in the Yulin area. The results showed the constructed random forest models achieved an accuracy of 93% for ecology, 90% for agriculture, and 92% for urban space in Yulin City on the test dataset. By means of suitability analysis, the results indicated that the extremely important ecological space were predominantly located in the southwestern and eastern regions of the study area, while suitable space for agricultural production were primarily scattered throughout the southeast. In contrast, suitable space for urban construction were concentrated mainly in the central part of the study area. The use of machine learning has proven to be effective in addressing multicollinearity among spatial evaluation factors across three different areas. By eliminating human subjectivity in weight assignment during evaluation, it introduces fresh perspectives for land space planning and status assessment. These findings may offer support for the scientific delineation of ecological-agricultural-urban space (three districts and three lines) in China.

Retracted: Rough Set Construction and Entropy Weight Evaluation of Urban Higher Education Resource Carrying Capacity Based on Big Data

Retracted: Rough Set Construction and Entropy Weight Evaluation of Urban Higher Education Resource Carrying Capacity Based on Big Data

Optimization of Forest and Grass Vegetation Distribution in the Aksu River Basin by Water Resources Carrying Capacity

In arid areas, vegetation is the basis for maintaining the virtuous cycle of ecosystems, while water resources are the key factor restricting the survival of vegetation communities. The balance between water resources and vegetation is related to the sustainable development of ecological benefits and economic benefits in arid areas. Although research on the carrying potential of vegetation in arid areas has been emphasized, there is still a lack of spatial analysis of different vegetation types over large areas. Therefore, this study takes precipitation as the basic source of water resources, calculates the amount of available water resources in the basin from the available effective precipitation and available irrigation water, and it analyzes the spatial distribution of forest and grass vegetation types under the water resources constraint, combined with the ecological water demand of different vegetation types and based on the principle of “Water to determine the Vegetation”. The results showed that the ecological water demand of each vegetation type was as follows: Forest > Shrub Vegetation > Grassland Vegetation > Desert Vegetation. The range of comprehensive available water resources of vegetation was from 0 to 221.71 mm, which decreased with the altitude gradient. Then, the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation types constrained by the water resources in the Aksu River Basin showed a striped distribution from north to south, with shrub vegetation in the high-altitude mountainous area, grassland vegetation in the low-altitude area, and desert vegetation in the desert plain area, respectively, accounting for 29.05%, 10.74%, and 53.45% of the total basin. This research approach provides a scientific basis for the planning of forest and grass vegetation construction in arid regions.

Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Assessment in Earthquake-Prone Area—Taking the Luding Earthquake Disaster as an Example

Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Assessment in Earthquake-Prone Area—Taking the Luding Earthquake Disaster as an Example

Spatial-temporal evolution law analysis of resource and environment carrying capacity based on game theory combination weighting and GMD-GRA-TOPSIS model. Evidence from 18 cities in Henan Province, China

In the backdrop of the high-quality growth of China's Yellow River Basin (YRB), Henan Province as a significant resource, population, economic, and grain-producing province, the contradiction between the finite availability of natural resource supply and ecological environmental capacity and the socioeconomic development has become more and more prominent, which significantly restricts the healthy sustainable development of Henan Province. Thus, it is essential to precisely assess the Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity (RECC) for Henan Province and control the scale of cities within the regulating capacity of the ecological and resource system. Therefore, based on the evaluation system composed of natural resources, ecological environment and socioeconomic subsystems, the method of substitutability of indicator information is applied to screen the indicator system. Determine the integrated weight value of each indicator based on the Ordinal Relationship-Entropy Weight-Game Theory model. To identify the spatial-temporal progression law of RECC in 18 cities in the province of Henan from 2005 to 2020 and to forecast the development trend of RECC in each city from 2021 to 2026, the GMD-GRA-TOPSIS-Holt model was constructed. The research findings show that (1) the development of RECC in Henan Province is divided into two periods: the period of slow development (2005–2011) and the period of rapid enhancement (2012–2020). Shangqiu (SQ) and Puyang (PY) were the two cities with the largest and smallest increases in the province, with a difference of up to 51.59%. (2) There are significant regional differences in the RECC and the subsystem carrying capacity in Henan Province. Except for the resource subsystem, the carrying capacity levels of the remaining three systems are improving, and the differences among cities are gradually decreasing. (3) The vitality and strength of the future development of RECC in Henan Province will continue to increase, characterised by “accelerated advancement in the early stage and steady improvement in the later stage.” Overall, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the scientific understanding of RECC in the cities of Henan Province and a scientific basis for optimising the allocation of resources and environmental capacity. Furthermore, the evaluation model constructed in this paper expands the space of theoretical application and has a popularisation value.

Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and non-linear interactions related to society, economy, water resources, and the water environment. A comprehensive comprehension of its internal mechanisms is essential for the continual enhancement of the regional WRCC. This study concentrates on the temporal and spatial variability of the WRCC to investigate a method for dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process—entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resource carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision on the water resource shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which has made the province’s water resource carrying capacity tend to become better gradually. Simultaneously, a system dynamics model (SD) for water resource carrying capacity was established based on an analysis of the model structure. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water saving, and cross-regional water transfer. Subsequently, each scenario is further categorized into high- and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes. Afterward, simulations and predictions were conducted for a total of six schemes spanning from 2023 to 2030. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of the economy and population, the efficient water conservation, and the interbasin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high speed) are the best choices for the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Research on the impact of domestic agricultural R&D on high-quality agricultural development in China

A fresh wave of technical change is seen as one of the most effective ways to achieve sustainable agricultural development due to the declining carrying capacity of resources and the environment. China, a nation with a sizable population, has drawn immense research attention over the following question: How can China promote agricultural transformation and achieve high-quality agricultural development through technological innovation? Based on the panel data that considers 28 provincial-level administrative regions in mainland China from 2010 to 2018, the study utilizes two-way fixed models; thus, it tests the impact of domestic agricultural research and development on high-quality agricultural development. Furthermore, it utilizes the moderating effect to verify the relationship between the two aforementioned factors under the influence of foreign technology introduction, human capital, and financial support. We observed the following: First, the high-quality agricultural development that characterized all the Chinese regions exhibited a steady upward trend. The industrial system, ecological system, and management system exhibited considerable development, whereas the development of the production system was lagging. Second, domestic agricultural research and development has promoted high-quality agricultural development. Third, under the moderating effect of foreign technology introduction, human capital, and financial support, the promotion effect of domestic agricultural research and development on high-quality agricultural development has gradually weakened. This study presents various proposals; thus, it strengthens the role of domestic agricultural research and development in promoting high-quality agricultural development.

Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Resource Carrying Capacity in the Region around Poyang Lake, China, from 2010 to 2020

Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Resource Carrying Capacity in the Region around Poyang Lake, China, from 2010 to 2020

Effects of a proposed hydraulic project on the surface water connectivity in Poyang Lake floodplain system, China: Numerical simulation and geostatistical analysis

Study RegionPoyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has been experiencing persistent shrinkage in recent years. Study FocusThe Poyang Lake Hydraulic Project (PLHP) was proposed to improve water resource and environment carrying capacity, its hydrological effects remain under investigation. This study combined a hydrodynamic model with geostatistical connectivity analysis, to quantify the influence of the PLHP on surface water connectivity in Poyang Lake. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionThe PLHP enlarges inundated areas most in the recession period (September-November), accounting for 85% of the total increase throughout the operating period (September-March), and enhances the interconnection probability within these inundated regions. Statistical analysis reveals that the Connectivity Function (CF) in low connectivity conditions (CF <0.4) can be significantly increased by 0.1–0.9, primarily in areas with lower topographies. While for the saucer-shaped sub-lakes, the PLHP can rarely extend the connecting processes between the main lake and sub-lakes in low-water-level conditions below 13 m, which is the lowest threshold height of most sub-lakes. Moreover, most isolated sub-lakes have merged into the main lake when the water level is higher than 14 m, thus the PLHP is no longer effective in this condition. Therefore, the enhancement effect of the PLHP on the connectivity of sub-lakes is restricted in both high- and low-water-level years, and is most pronounced in the medium-water-level year.

How does urban land use efficiency improve resource and environment carrying capacity?

Considering the constraints on urban land expansion, improving the efficiency of existing urban land becomes a key factor in promoting resource sustainability and environmental protection. This paper examines the impact mechanism and threshold effect of urban land use efficiency (ULUE) on resources and environment carrying capacity (RECC) using panel data covering 282 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2018. The empirical results show that: (1) ULUE enhances RECC in China, and the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure are important transmission mechanisms; (2) The impact of ULUE on RECC is heterogeneous, showing significant differences in different regions, periods, administrative levels, and resource endowments; (3) With industrial rationalization and industrial advancement as threshold variables, ULUE exhibits a “gradient-style” enhancement with significant threshold characteristics in improving RECC. These findings can provide practical guidance for various land policies.

Analysis of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Guyuan City

To assess the water resource carrying capacity of Guyuan City, an analysis was conducted using the load index method, principal component analysis, and ecological water footprint method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out using these three methods to evaluate the current state of water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City. The results indicate that the water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City is mainly influenced by economic development factors, water supply–demand balance factors, and natural factors. During the period from 2002 to 2016, the water resource carrying capacity fluctuated in response to changes in the total water resources. However, from 2016 to 2021, it exhibited an increasing trend due to improvements in water resource utilization efficiency and effective water conservation measures. However, the water resource carrying capacity remains at a relatively low level, and it has consistently been in an overloaded state, with the development and utilization of water resources approaching their limits. Water scarcity in Guyuan City is a pressing concern, characterized by severe limitations on its potential for development and utilization. The persistent supply–demand imbalance is anticipated to impede the region’s pursuit of high-quality economic development in the foreseeable future.

Assessing Water Resource Carrying Capacity and Sustainability in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China): A TOPSIS–Markov Model Analysis

This study employs the Driving Force–Pressure–State–Response (DPSR) framework to establish an evaluation index system for the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China). Utilizing the TOPSIS and obstacle degree models, we analyze the trends in the WRCC and its main hindrance factors in the Cele–Yutian Oasis from 2005 to 2020. Additionally, we employ the Markov model to investigate the dynamic changes in the land use types. The findings reveal that the most unfavorable WRCC status occurred in 2007, with a Grade IV rating (a mild overload). By 2020, the WRCC improved to a Grade III rating (critical), indicating a positive trajectory. However, persistent challenges for water resources remain, with a prolonged critical state. Over the past 15 years, the grassland area has decreased by 15.18%, and the forest area has decreased by 50%. The dynamic degree of grassland, forests, and water bodies is negative, signifying shifts to other land types, with water bodies undergoing the most significant change at −10.16%. Based on the outcomes of these two models, we propose regionally tailored measures to support sustainable development. These research results provide a scientific foundation for optimal water resource allocation and sustainable development in the Cele–Yutian Oasis Economic Belt.

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

The Yellow River Basin is an essential ecological barrier in China, but it is relatively underdeveloped. The human–land relationship needs to be coordinated, and the ecological environment is fragile, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, a “five-dimensional integrated” comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation model is constructed using the five dimensions of water, land, ecology, monitoring, and early warning to evaluate its resource carrying capacity quantitatively. It constructs an early warning system of the resource carrying capacity based on the quantitative evaluation results and monitors the state of the resource carrying capacity. The results show that (1) seven major urban agglomerations’ populations, grain productions, and land are surplus, and 50.85% of prefecture-level cities have food surpluses regarding human–food relationships. (2) There are shortages in the urban agglomeration’s water resources and a deficit in the water resource carrying capacity. (3) The average ecological carrying capacity index is 0.519, indicating a state of ecological affluence. (4) The comprehensive resource carrying capacity is defined as level-three heavy-load conditions, while 67%, 22%, and 14% of cities have level-one, -two, and -three heavy-load conditions, respectively. This study can aid in the monitoring of the resource carrying status of the Yellow River Basin. These results provide a scientific basis for effectively restraining the utilization and development of natural resources in the Yellow River Basin. It can also provide a research paradigm for the world’s river basins, as well as the sustainable development of man and nature in the world.