Renewables In Electricity Generation Research Articles

Transitioning to Clean Energy: A Comprehensive Analysis of Renewable Electricity Generation in the EU-27

The EU power sector is under increasing pressure due to rising electricity demand and the need to meet decarbonisation targets. Member states have been active in investing in renewables and building capacity to increase their share of renewables in electricity generation. However, it is important to examine what progress each member state has made in the deployment of renewable energy for electricity generation and what factors influence gross electricity generation from renewable energy. In this study, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis was used to examine the changes in EU-27 countries’ gross electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), wind, and solar PV from 2012 to 2021. The results show that the RES deployment per capita effect and the RES share effect were the main positive factors for the total gross electricity generation from RES in the EU. In contrast, the RES capacity productivity effect and the energy intensity effect had negative contributions. Population growth had a positive influence but was less significant than the other factors. The deployment of RES per capita effect was the main factor in the overall growth of gross electricity generation from RES in Northern Europe, Central Western Europe, and Central Eastern Europe, according to comparisons between the regional groups. RES share effect was the main driver in Southern Europe. The decrease in RES capacity productivity was the second most important factor influencing the variation in the amount of energy generated by RES in Northern Europe and Central Western Europe. The results could be used to develop more effective and tailored renewable energy policies that take into account the existing main drivers of RES, wind, and solar energy in each of the EU-27 member states.

Drivers of renewable energy penetration and its role in power sector's deep decarbonization towards carbon peak

The power sector is a linchpin of global carbon mitigation goal, and renewables are increasingly the preferred source of new electricity generation globally. It is necessary to uncover the driving mechanism of renewable energy penetration and its impact on deep decarbonization of the power sector. To this end, this research utilizes the production-theoretical decomposition analysis to attribute the change in renewable electricity generation to nine drivers. Then, a system dynamics model is established to track the trajectory of carbon emissions in the power sector under multiple scenario settings of renewable energy penetration. Additionally, cross-country heterogeneity analysis is conducted between China, the USA, the UK, and Germany. The results indicate that: (1) The electricity consumption scale plays a decisive role in driving China's renewable electricity generation during 1995–2018, while electricity productivity and output productivity are the major negative contributors. (2) In the UK, the USA, and Germany, electricity productivity and output productivity act as the main promoters of renewable electricity generation. (3) The decline in China's two productivity effects is primarily attributed to the drop of technical efficiency. However, technology progress in these developed countries contributes to increasing the two productivity indexes. (4) The IRENA roadmap scenario (40%) is not enough to peak carbon emissions in China's power sector before 2030, while 46.3% of renewables in electricity generation is sufficient to achieve this goal. This research provides an insightful roadmap for facilitating renewable energy transition and decarbonizing the power sector.

Resource assessment for green hydrogen production in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has long been regarded as a major exporter of fossil fuel energy. As the global energy sector is undergoing an unprecedented transition to low-carbon solutions, new emerging energy technologies, such as hydrogen production, require more different resource bases than present energy technologies. Kazakhstan needs to consider whether it has enough resources to stay competitive in energy markets undergoing an energy transition. Green hydrogen can be made from water electrolysis powered by low-carbon electricity sources such as wind turbines and solar panels. We provided the first resource assessment for green hydrogen production in Kazakhstan by focusing on three essential resources: water, renewable electricity, and critical raw materials. Our estimations showed that with the current plan of Kazakhstan to keep its water budget constant in the future, producing 2–10 Mt green hydrogen would require reducing the water use of industry in Kazakhstan by 0.6–3% or 0.036–0.18 km3/year. This could be implemented by increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation and phasing out some of the water- and carbon-intensive industries. Renewable electricity potential in South and West Kazakhstan is sufficient to run electrolyzers up to 5700 and 1600 h/year for wind turbines and solar panels, respectively. In our base case scenario, 5 Mt green hydrogen production would require 50 GW solar and 67 GW wind capacity, considering Kazakhstan's wind and solar capacity factors. This could convert into 28,652 tons of nickel, 15,832 tons of titanium, and many other critical raw materials. Although our estimations for critical raw materials were based on limited geological data, Kazakhstan has access to the most critical raw materials to support original equipment manufacturers of low-carbon technologies in Kazakhstan and other countries. As new geologic exploration kicks off in Kazakhstan, it is expected that more deposits of critical raw materials will be discovered to respond to their potential future needs for green hydrogen production.

The impact of alternative energy on the world's energy mix of global energy consumption

Alternative energy is a strategic future for humanity because of the inevitable rise in cost and depletion of natural resources and, in the long term, nuclear materials for nuclear power operations. Every study in renewable energy development is an approach to make better use of renewable energy sources. Many countries have set targets for increased renewable energy clustering. Western European countries occupy an honourable place.The EU case study examines actions to integrate renewables into the current energy system, ensuring that the share of renewables in electricity generation reaches 12% by 2022. Renewables could thus change the fuel and energy mix, both of individual countries and of the global community as a whole, in the coming years.

The geographical location, current state and forecasting of development of renewable energy facilities within Lviv region


 
 
 
 Ukraine, as a member of the European Energy Community, has committed itself to achieve a share of 12 % renewables in its final energy generation by 2025 and a share of at least 25 % by 2035 (including all hydropower and thermal energy capacities). In 2019, the share of renewables in electricity generation in Ukraine was only 4 %. Renewables produce 4 % of total electricity production in Lviv region. According to this indicator, the region is the leader in the Western Ukraine. The paper analyzes the geographical location and the current state of renewable energy facilities in the Lviv region and forecasting their further development. As of July 1, 2020, in Lviv region there are 67 renewable energy facilities with a total capacity of over 310 MW. Most of the renewables supply electricity to the integrated energy system at a “green” tariff. They include two wind power plants with a total capacity of 33.9 MW in Staryy Sambir district; 59 industrial solar power plants with a total capacity of over than 275 MW in 15 administrative districts of Lviv region, Boryslav and Chervonohrad cities; two mini hydropower plants with a total capacity of 0.576 MW in Drohobych and Turka districts; three mini heat and electricity production plants running on biomass and producing electricity and thermal energy (Radekhiv heat and electricity production plant with a capacity of 2.4 MW, other heat and electricity production plants with a total capacity of 3.66 MW); one biomass electricity production plant operating in the Eco-Mit LLC pig farm in the village of Batyatychi in Kamianka-Buzka district. In addition, 985 solar electricity production plants at private households were built in 20 administrative districts and 9 cities in the region. Their total capacity is over 19 MW, which is equivalent to average capacity of one industrial solar electricity production plant. The leader in the number of industrial facilities for renewable energy is Yavoriv district, where almost half of the total renewables’ capacity of Lviv region is concentrated. The largest number of solar electricity production plants of private households is located in Pustomyty and Yavoriv districts, and Lviv city, whereas the lowest number in mountainous areas, particular in Turka and Skole districts. As of January 1, 2020, solar energy constituted 70 % of renewable energy in Lviv region. At the same time, according to the Development Strategy of Lviv region for the period of 2021–2027, the largest share in the structure of electricity production belongs to wind energy. The development of renewable energy in Ukraine depends on the rate of “green” tariff. The actual financial stimulus has led to a rapid increase in the share of renewables in total electricity generation in Ukraine and Lviv region in particular. Promising areas for renewable energy in Lviv region are wind and bioenergy developments.
 
 
 

How Germany achieved a record share of renewables during the COVID-19 pandemic while relying on the European interconnected power network

In 2020, Germany reached a maximum share of 50.5% intermittent renewables in electricity generation. Such a high share results in an increasing need for flexibility measures such as international transmission flexibility, i.e., electricity imports and exports. In fact, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany changed from a former electricity net exporter to a net importer. This paper, therefore, analyzes what we can learn from the resulting development of German electricity imports as a flexibility measure from a market, environmental, and network perspective. We analyze data on electricity imports/exports, generation, prices, and interconnection capacities of 38 bidding zones, respectively 11 countries within the ENTSO-E. In particular, we formulate three hypotheses to partition our overarching research question. Our results reveal that from a market perspective, Germany's increased need for transmission flexibility did not generally result in increased prices for German electricity imports. Also, from an environmental perspective, Germany increasingly relied on electricity imports from countries that exhibited a lower share of renewables. Finally, during the COVID-19 pandemic some of Germany's interconnection capacities to its neighboring countries exhibited a higher utilization. In view of our results, German policymakers may reflect on decarbonization policies considering a holistic European perspective.

Dynamic tariffs, demand response, and regulation in retail electricity markets

Greater penetration of renewables in electricity generation will result in high variability in residual demand (demand net of renewable generation); this will further challenge the stability and flexibility of power systems. One possible solution is demand response, which is usually achieved through dynamic tariffs that offer consumers financial incentives to shift or reduce peak load to off-peak periods. We construct a two-stage dynamic game to model the retail market, in which the retailer sets dynamic tariffs to maximize profit, and consumers respond to the prices. Using the Irish smart metering data as model inputs, we find that in our baseline scenario, the dynamic tariff would generate for the retailer an additional €7.35 of annual profit from a representative Irish household. With market regulations, the dynamic tariff will benefit consumers and retailers alike. We also find that the interaction between demand-side management stimuli and market regulation can further reduce consumer-level electricity demand, increase retail profit, and lower consumers’ electricity bills.

Optimal energy transition with variable and intermittent renewable electricity generation

We propose one of the first dynamic models of the optimal transition from fossil fuels to renewables in electricity generation that takes into account the variability and intermittency of renewable energy sources as well as storage. We take as an example solar energy, which is variable (no sun at night) and intermittent (few or no sun at day when there are clouds). We show that when the clouds phenomenon is not too severe, intermittency can be safely ignored and the planner just needs to take into account the deterministic variability of the renewable source. In this case, the optimal transition consists in using fossil fuels at day and night and complement them by solar electricity at day while investing to build up solar capacity; then abandoning fossils at day and keeping them for night electricity generation only; then, when solar capacity is large enough, starting to store electricity; and finally abandoning totally fossils when the carbon budget is exhausted. However, if the cloud problem is severe, intermittency matters a lot and precaution requires to start storage earlier, before fossils have been abandoned at day. We show that renewable electricity generation and storage are complement: absent storage devices, the long run solar capacity is smaller, and so is electricity consumption. We finally provide a quantitative illustration for the case of the Spanish energy transition. We show that in Spain intermittency can be safely ignored. We compute the carbon value corresponding to a 2 ∘C carbon budget, the dates at which storage starts, and the path of investment in solar capacity.

The Choice between Renewables and Non-renewables: Evidence from Electricity Generation in 29 Countries

We examine how per capita income and relative fossil fuel prices influence the use of non-renewables (oil, coal and natural gas), nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewables in electricity generation. Panel regressions are estimated using the fully modified ordinary least squares method and data across 29 countries (1985-2017).We include both developed and developing economies whose classification status is allowed to vary during the sample period depending on per capita income.Results suggest that oil prices play a dominant role in boosting the use of renewables, while gas serves as a transition fuel. For developing nations, income is a significant constraint in the use of renewables, while coal and gas prices do not significantly influence the use of hydro and nuclear. This finding supports a shift away from the exclusive use of pricing mechanisms towards set targets linked to per capita income to encourage the use of renewables in developing economies.

Electricity Generation from Hydro, Wind, Solar and the Environment

Human actions such as electricity generation are contributory causes of climate change. In a quest to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases associated with electricity generation from fossil fuels, the world is turning to renewables. Renewable sources, however, also do have an impact on the environment. Likewise, renewable electricity generation is also dependent on the climate. Hydro, Wind, and Solar are the popular renewable energy sources for the generation of electricity. This work reviews the impact of these renewables in electricity generation on the environment. It also considers the effect of climate change on its use. The construction of renewable electricity generating plants leads to habitat disruptions and can also cause fatalities. Climate change weighs an enormous impact on the performance of renewable electricity generating plants. The recent blackout experienced in Texas as a result of the cold weather is a good example. The end of extreme weather conditions is not yet, and the need to start preparing to prevent a blackout re-occurrence. A possible solution for sustainable renewable electricity generation in extreme weather conditions lies in synthetic fuel availability.

Modelling and optimisation of long-term forecasting of electricity demand in oil-rich area, South Iran

The present study was conducted to predict the electricity status based on scenario design and energy modelling using optimization approach by 2050 in Khuzestan, Iran. Two scenarios were proposed, one investigating the current trend called the BAU (Business as Usual) and the other SMD (Sustainable Management and Development scenario). According to the BAU scenario, electricity consumption will reach from 29.08 to 73.79 TWh during 2017–2050, reducing renewable energy sources from 30.3 to 18.9%. In addition to being more dependent on fossil fuels and increasing greenhouse gas emissions, power plant capacity will not be responsive to the peak of electricity consumption. However, this situation will be improved in the SMD scenario using consumption management strategies, increased efficiency, and resource development. Reducing electricity demand and generation by 2.5 and 28.2%, respectively, will reduce environmental externalities by 658.8 million and saves 173 MTCO2e. The SMD scenario's benefit would be equal to 6,376.8 million compared to the BAU considering all socio-economic and environmental indicators. The results show that relying on fossils to generate electricity will cost more in long-term. The SMD scenario with the participation and development of renewables with greater dispersion reduces transmission losses and optimizes electricity generation to minimize environmental hazards. Highlights Long-term future research on electricity demand and the share of energy resources in its production is under investigation. Energy modelling has been implemented with the LEAP software through an optimisation approach. According to the REF scenario, electricity demand will exceed its production and Khuzestan will face the challenge of electricity supply. The SMD scenario can reduce demand growth and increase the share of renewables in electricity generation. The cost–benefit of the SMD scenario will be more than 6376 M$ by 2050 compared to the REF scenario.

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in China during 1997–2040: The roles of energy transition and thermal power generation efficiency

CO2 emissions from electricity generation (CEE) in China increased from 935 Mt to 3511 Mt during the period 1997–2017, ignoring a slight decline from 2013 to 2015. To identify what resulted in this pattern and how to peak China's CEE in the future, this study first quantitatively evaluated the drivers of CEE. Then, considering both the energy transition and thermal power generation efficiency (TPGE) could make sense in CEE reduction, based on historical data from China's 30 provinces during 1997–2017, we established twelve scenarios, which were hybrids of four electricity mix scenarios (refer to International Energy Agency (IEA) and China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNRE)) and three TPGE scenarios (business-as-usual (BAU), median scenario, and best-available-technology (BAT)), to explore the impacts of energy transition and regional convergence in TPGE on CEE until 2040. The BAU scenario assumes the TPGE in all provinces develops as historical trends, while the median scenario and BAT scenario represent a form of weak and strong regional convergence in TPGE across provinces, respectively. The decomposition results showed that TPGE was a dominator in emissions reduction, followed by the share of renewables in electricity generation. The scenario analysis indicated that when the electricity mix changes with IEA's Current Policies scenario, the decline in CEE will be not persistent after 2017 unless a strong regional convergence in TPGE occurs. Moreover, under BAT scenario, with any case of electricity mix the CEE in 2040 is 31–54% lower than that under BAU scenario. The results also showed that more ambitious targets for developing low-carbon technologies could help the rapid decarbonization of China's electricity sector.

A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success

Energy scenarios, relying on wide-ranging assumptions about the future, do not always adequately reflect the lock-in risks caused by planned power-generation projects and the uncertainty around their chances of realization. In this study we built a machine-learning model that demonstrates high accuracy in predicting power-generation project failure and success using the largest dataset on historic and planned power plants available for Africa, combined with country-level characteristics. We found that the most relevant factors for successful commissioning of past projects are at plant level: capacity, fuel, ownership and connection type. We applied the trained model to predict the realization of the current project pipeline. Contrary to rapid transition scenarios, our results show that the share of non-hydro renewables in electricity generation is likely to remain below 10% in 2030, despite total generation more than doubling. These findings point to high carbon lock-in risks for Africa, unless a rapid decarbonization shock occurs leading to large-scale cancellation of the fossil fuel plants currently in the pipeline. Energy scenarios can sometimes miss lock-in caused by planned power plant projects and uncertainty around their realization. Here, Alova et al. build a machine-learning model that predicts Africa’s electricity generation mix in 2030 based on the commissioning chances of planned projects.

State of Climate Action: Assessing Progress toward 2030 and 2050

To keep the window open to limit global warming to 1.5 C, countries need to accelerate transformation towards a net-zero emissions future across all sectors at a far faster pace than recent trends, according to this report from World Resources Institute and ClimateWorks Foundation, with input from Climate Action Tracker. For example, the report finds that to get on track for the emission cuts required by 2030, the world needs to: Accelerate the increased share of renewables in electricity generation five times faster; Phase out coal in electricity generation five times faster; Reduce the carbon intensity of electricity generation three times faster; Accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles 22 times faster than the significant rates of adoption in recent years; Accelerate the increase in the share of low-carbon fuels by eight times faster; and Accelerate the increase in annual tree cover gain five times faster. The rapid transformation needed to halve emissions by 2030 will require significant financial investments, technology transfer and capacity-building for developing countries. While climate finance has increased significantly in recent years across the public, private and philanthropic sectors, it is still not at the scale needed to revolutionize our energy and transportation systems, accelerate energy efficiency and protect forests. Estimates indicate that between $1.6 and $3.8 trillion per year will be needed through 2050 to transform the energy system alone. Experience has shown that transformative change can happen at an exponential, non-linear rate. Systemic changes that once seemed impossible have ultimately been achieved, such as technological advances with cars, phones and computers. A rapid transition to a zero-carbon future offers the same opportunity — but only with smart and proactive investments in key sectors. The report outlines opportunities within all six sectors to align emissions trajectories with what the science suggests is necessary to avoid the worst climate impacts. Countries, businesses, philanthropy and others must urgently put in place policies, incentives and financial investments to accelerate us toward that safer, prosperous and more equitable future.

Fossil Fuel Substitution with Renewables for Electricity Generation – Effects on Sustainability Goals

The substitution of fossil fuel power plants with renewable units will lead to a profound reduction of CO2 emissions and will assist in evading the Global Climate Change. Using demand data from the electricity grid of Texas, this paper develops a scenario for the substitution of coal, at first, and of all fossil fuel power plants, secondly, in the entire State of Texas. Meeting the electricity demand of the grid with renewables, makes it necessary to develop significant energy storage capacity in addition to the renewable – wind and solar – installations. Because of the lower pant capacity factors of wind and solar units, the calculations show that significantly higher renewable power capacity must be built than the current capacity of the fossil fuel units to be substituted. Also, that a substantial fraction of the generated energy is lost in the storage-recovery processes. All these factors are expected to increase the price of electricity paid by the consumers. Ahis will have an impact on the less affluent segments of the population and – if ignored by national energy policies – will affect the goal to reduce inequality within and among countries.

Examining the decreasing share of renewable energy amid growing thermal capacity: The case of South America

Concerns about climate change have required energy policy to be reconsidered around the world. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has the potential to contribute significantly to the goals of the Paris Agreement (2015), particularly in the developing world. The recent evolution of total installed capacity of electricity mix in eight South American countries and the current renewable energy policy is considered. Indications of an energy paradox are seen: the installed share of thermal capacity increases as energy demand grows, decreasing the share of renewable energy despite the government's stated policy and commitment to increasing renewables in electricity generation through incentives and regulations. The share of installed hydro compared to thermal generation declined from 2007 to 2017 in Chile, Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia. Furthermore, South American countries are unlikely to reach the aforementioned share of renewables in the energy matrix, with the exception of Uruguay. Thus, organic growth of renewables may not be enough in a region with high potential and a long history of low emissions from electricity. It may be necessary for governments to more actively prioritize, regulate, and support inclusive subsidies for both public and private investors in the electricity sector to reduce the risk of climate change and achieve greenhouse gas reduction goals.

How consumers trade off supply security and green electricity: Evidence from Germany and Great Britain

The expansion of renewable energies requires infrastructure investments to at least maintain the stability of electricity grids. Using survey data from residential consumers in Germany and Great Britain, we infer in pecuniary terms the extent to which people are prepared to reward the presence of renewable resources in electricity production and how they trade off this change in the fuel mix against supply reliability. We rely on random-parameter econometric techniques to capture various degrees of heterogeneity among the respondents. Our central finding is that the vast majority of respondents (a) value a higher percentage of renewables in electricity generation and (b) penalize interruptions to supply. The trade-off between capacity expansion and supply security is such that the reported penalties for outages easily crowd out the willingness-to-pay for renewables.

Energy Transition with Variable and Intermittent Renewable Electricity Generation

We propose one of the first dynamic models of the optimal transition from fossil fuels to renewables in electricity generation that takes into account the variability and intermittency of renewable energy as well as storage. This work sheds light on the extent to which variability and intermittency constitute a serious obstacle to energy transition and, given these constraints, the value of storage. The results of this model provide useful insight into the complexity of transitioning to a clean energy mix, as well as the role climate policy can play in facilitating both the growth of renewables and storage.

The economy-wide effects of large-scale renewable electricity expansion in Europe: The role of integration costs

With the increasing share of renewables in electricity generation in Europe, implied economy-wide macroeconomic feedbacks and spill-over effects to other sectors and actors are of rising importance. We quantify the macroeconomic effects of a large-scale expansion of wind and photovoltaics (PV) in Europe, employing a global multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We place special emphasis on electricity market integration costs, which have so far been neglected not only in most bottom-up technology comparisons, but also in macroeconomic studies. We find that the societal welfare effects of a large-scale expansion of wind and PV tend to be positive; however, when integration costs are taken into account, positive welfare effects are either much smaller or even become negative, depending very much on regional characteristics, such as the prevailing electricity mix, weighted average costs of capital (WACC) or capacity factors. We also show that macroeconomic feedback effects raise generation costs above what is anticipated from a bottom-up perspective, since the high capital intensities of renewable electricity generation technologies drive up economy-wide capital prices. This may imply that they are no longer competitive when installed at large-scales.

Impact of environmental taxes on sustainable energy development in baltic states, Czech republic and Slovakia

Environmental taxes have direct impact on sustainable energy development as energy production and consumption is the major source of GHG and classical pollutants emissions. There are number of EU member states which are using environmental pollution taxes as the main economic instrument of atmospheric air pollution reduction. The energy sector is the main source of atmospheric pollution therefore environmental taxes should have direct impact on sustainable energy development as these taxes create incentives to reduce consumption of fossil fuels and to switch to renewables and cleaner fossil fuels such as natural gas. The comparative study of environmental taxes and indicators of sustainable energy sector development in Baltics and Czech Republic and Slovakia was performed to assess what role environmental taxes are playing in achieving sustainable energy development in selected new EU member states. Analysis of environmental taxes in three Baltic States and Czech Republic indicated quite different energy and pollution tax rates as well as quite large differences in the share of environmental tax revenues as percentages of GDP in these countries. Estonia distinguishes with the best results in greening environmental tax system and one of the best results in achieving sustainable energy development targets. Latvia has one of the lowest share of environmental taxes as percentage of GDP and has very high shares of renewables in electricity generation and in final energy consumption however it is more related with favourable climate conditions and well developed hydro power plants.