Renewable Sector Research Articles

Short-Term Energy Generation Forecasts at a Wind Farm—A Multi-Variant Comparison of the Effectiveness and Performance of Various Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree Models

High-quality short-term forecasts of wind farm generation are crucial for the dynamically developing renewable energy generation sector. This article addresses the selection of appropriate gradient-boosted decision tree models (GBDT) for forecasting wind farm energy generation with a 10-min time horizon. In most forecasting studies, authors utilize a single gradient-boosted decision tree model and compare its performance with other machine learning (ML) techniques and sometimes with a naive baseline model. This paper proposes a comprehensive comparison of all gradient-boosted decision tree models (GBDTs, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost)) used for forecasting. The objective is to evaluate each model in terms of forecasting accuracy for wind farm energy generation (forecasting error) and computational time during model training. Computational time is a critical factor due to the necessity of testing numerous models with varying hyperparameters to identify the optimal settings that minimize forecasting error. Forecast quality using default hyperparameters is used here as a reference. The research also seeks to determine the most effective sets of input variables for the predictive models. The article concludes with findings and recommendations regarding the preferred GBDT models. Among the four tested models, the oldest GBDT model demonstrated a significantly longer training time, which should be considered a major drawback of this implementation of gradient-boosted decision trees. In terms of model quality testing, the lowest nRMSE error was achieved by the oldest model—GBDT in its tuned version (with the best hyperparameter values obtained from exploring 40,000 combinations).

Dual anaerobic reactor model to study biofilm and microbiologically influenced corrosion interactions on carbon steel

Continual challenges due to microbial corrosion are faced by the maritime, offshore renewable and energy sectors. Understanding the biofilm and microbiologically influenced corrosion interaction is hindered by the lack of robust and reproducible physical models that reflect operating environments. A novel dual anaerobic biofilm reactor, using a complex microbial consortium sampled from marine littoral sediment, allowed the electrochemical performance of UNS G10180 carbon steel to be studied simultaneously in anaerobic abiotic and biotic artificial seawater. Critically, DNA extraction and 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing demonstrated the principal biofilm activity was due to electroactive bacteria, specifically sulfate-reducing and iron-reducing bacteria.

Powering prosperity: Unveiling the impacts of renewable energy policies on economy, employment, and income distribution in Indonesia

This study analyzes the economic and distributional impacts of a Production Tax Credit (PTC) on Indonesia's renewable electricity sector using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation spans 2018 to 2030, utilizing the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Results indicate significant reductions in electricity prices by 2025 under two scenarios of total factor productivity (TFP) growth (20 % and 30 %), with continued price decreases through 2030. The study reveals that while urban households and highly educated labour benefit from reduced energy costs and income gains, rural and lower-skilled workers experience fewer advantages, highlighting potential inequalities. The findings underscore the importance of inclusive renewable energy policies to ensure equitable economic outcomes during the energy transition. This research contributes to existing literature by offering new insights into the role of PTC in promoting sustainable energy development in emerging economies like Indonesia, with critical implications for policy design.

COMPARING THE PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR AGRICULTURAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE ALGERIAN ECONOMY DURING THE PERIOD 1974-2021

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate to assess and measure economic performance in the field of agriculture, through both the public and private sectors, and to determine the agricultural sector’s contribution to the Algerian economy, Theoretical Framework: The importance of the agricultural sector in achieving food security and economic diversification by encouraging growth in renewable resource sectors such as agriculture. Method: The methodology adopted for this research comprises Conducting a statistical analysis of a set of economic variables related to the agricultural sector to understand the importance of this sector and its performance during the period from 1974 to 2021. Results and Discussion: - There are significant differences in favor of the private sector in all study variables, indicating a shift from public sector dominance to private sector dominance. - The public sector dominated from independence until 1990, after which the private sector emerged and participated alongside the public sector in all economic activities in Algeria. Research Implications: The agricultural sector in Algeria helps to diversify the economy and gradually reduce dependence on the unstable hydrocarbon sector by relying on sectors with renewable resources. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by Understanding the importance of the agricultural sector through its provision of food security, its contribution to the Algerian economy, and its role in reducing the import bill. All of this contributes to minimizing economic fluctuations that may affect Algeria, which is a goal pursued through economic diversification by encouraging both the public and private sectors in agriculture.

Enhancement in the performance of a vanadium-manganese redox flow battery using electrospun carbon metal-based electrode catalysts

This study investigates the performance of both a vanadium/manganese redox flow battery (V/Mn RFB) and an all-vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), employing carbon metal fabrics (CMFs) prepared through electrospinning followed by carbonization. Noteworthy advancements are observed in both systems upon coupling CMFs with thermally treated graphite felt (GF) electrodes. Nearly doubled peak power density and 50 % higher capacity utilization over 150 charge/discharge cycles at 75 mA cm−2 are achieved for the V/Mn RFB with the incorporation of CMFs alongside graphite felt as catalysts. The VRFB demonstrates notable enhancements too, achieving approximately 200 cycles at a current density of 80 mA cm−2, with high efficiencies (85 %) and electrolyte utilization (79 %) when CMFs are used in combination with graphite felts. These advancements may facilitate pilot-scale testing and integration of the V/Mn RFB for the employment in the renewable energy storage sector and grid-balancing studies.

A recursive dynamic CGE approach to investigate environmental Kuznets curve

The inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation is known as environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and has been tested in many empirical studies since more than 3 decades. Technological change is one of the tools that can be used to examine the existence of EKC in CGE models. The objective is to extract EKC for G7 countries using a multi-regional CGE model and investigate the effects of some key factors affecting EKC using historical data for the period of 1861–2021. First, we have considered the effects of energy efficiency, on CO2 emissions, on carbon intensity and on economic growth. Then, EKC was extracted based on the obtained results. In addition, the effects of factors such as carbon tax, revenue recycling schemes and various types of substitution elasticities are evaluated on EKC. Our results show that, with a 3% improvement in productivity, by 2050, GDP will increase by nearly 12% and carbon emissions will decrease by 4.4%. The combination of such two effects has led to an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. Among the elasticity of substitutions, the elasticity of substitution of capital and energy, as well as the substitution elasticity of energy inputs has the greatest effect on EKC. The slope of EKC becomes negative if a carbon tax is imposed. The EKC moves downwards if carbon tax income is transferred to the production tax-cut in renewable sectors. The results suggest that carbon tax and its allocation to renewable sectors will improve environmental effects.

Reorientation of energy policy and management: Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) framework implementation for Renewable and Thermal Energy Systems (RTES)

To bridge the critical implementation gap in Renewable and Thermal Energy Systems (RTES) sector, this study proposed a groundbreaking Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) framework. Existing policy analysis methods for RTES often fall short. This limitation was addressed by investigating the disconnect between policy vision and execution within intricate energy landscape. This analysis was extended beyond Pakistan, incorporating energy policies from leading developed and developing nations alongside a comprehensive existing energy modeling efforts for RTES. By leveraging these insights, the potential of IEP was demonstrated to account for trade-offs and seamlessly integrate diverse energy sources. This paves the way for a more sustainable, secure, and efficient RTES for future.

Ripple effects of coal phaseout on employment in China: From mining to coal consumption sectors

China's stringent decarbonisation, marked by an uncompromising coal phaseout, has induced significant ripple effects across the coal industry chain's employment structure. By utilising a composite methodology that integrates the Global Change Assessment Model and Input‒Output Model, this study systematically quantifies the impact on employment, revealing a loss of 1.6 million jobs in mining and 8.2 million in the entire chain. Concurrently, a labour shift to the renewable sector has resulted in an 18.5% increase in employment, equivalent to creating 508,000 new positions from 2017 to 2020. Projections suggest that renewable energy initiatives could address 25% of the employment gap for precision by 2060 under carbon neutrality scenarios. Nonetheless, the coal sector is expected to lose more than 20 million jobs, indicating the need for a 2.3 trillion-yuan compensation fund. This study highlights the need for policy interventions to facilitate labour transitions through comprehensive retraining programs and strategic investments. Promoting economic diversification and clean coal technologies can improve resource utilization and create new jobs. Additionally, repurposing abandoned coal mines into energy storage facilities or renewable energy sites can prevent stranded assets and generate employment. These findings provide a robust framework for addressing the socioeconomic challenges of energy transitions, offering critical insights for other coal-dependent countries aiming for sustainable development.

Pathway for a fully renewable power sector of Africa by 2050: Emphasising on flexible generation from biomass

The climate crisis coupled with energy poverty and injustice in Africa requires strategic measures to proffer sustainable solutions. A transition to a defossilised power sector is obtained for Africa by 2050, evolutionarily developed to fulfil the Paris Agreement. With the LUT Energy System Transition Model, the role of biomass in a least-cost power sector for Africa is investigated from 2020 to 2050 in five-year time steps. Techno-economic assumptions of employed technologies are applied. The study considers the current generation portfolio, lifespan of power plant technologies, and the current and future electricity demand to ascertain the best generation mix by 2050. Biomass potential of 334 TWh (17.5%) of the total African biomass potential of 1911 TWh is applied to the African power sector to develop two Best Policy Scenarios: a scenario without bioenergy (BPS-1) and a scenario with bioenergy (BPS-2). The results indicate a positive impact of bioenergy on the power sector: The total generation, total installed capacity, grid utilisation, levelised cost of electricity, and storage output decreased by 8.6%, 8.4%, 12.9%, 10.2%, 47.1% by 2050 respectively in BPS-2 relative to the BPS-1. In addition, flexible generation from biomass offers balancing to enhance variable renewable energy resources integration onto the power sector.

Scenarios on future electricity storage requirements in the Austrian electricity system with high shares of variable renewables

This paper presents three scenarios (policy, renewables and electrification and efficiency) for transitioning to a 100 % renewable electricity sector in Austria, based predominantly on wind and photovoltaics, alongside sector-specific electrification. Considering renewable expansion targets and three distinctive weather years from an overall system perspective, the core objective is to minimize variable costs of electricity storage and dispatchable power plants. The model developed determines their optimal dispatch for meeting the underlying electricity demand each hour. Within the scenarios for renewable expansion, a special focus lies on integrating short-duration (batteries), medium-duration (pumped storage hydro) and long-duration (hydrogen) energy storage. Our analysis reveals the significant impact of weather patterns on renewable electricity generation, particularly the differences between winter and summer generation quantities. This necessitates seasonal balancing and the mitigation of extremes like low wind power events, which require corresponding backup capacities. This contrast is particularly evident when comparing the years 2030–2050, wherein in the latter, certain dispatchable generators are only utilized in one of the three underlying weather years during extreme weather conditions. In our paper, we demonstrate how, especially for hydrogen production and storage, weather conditions influence production levels and the re-electrification demand. The results indicate the feasibility of achieving a fully decarbonized energy system in Austria through suitable policy measures and expanded renewable generation, with long-duration storage playing a crucial role in seasonal balance and compensating for the absence of fossil fuel generation. Strategic planning is essential to aligning the expansion of renewable energy generation with the necessary flexibility.

Assessment of bioenergy plant locations using a GIS-MCDA approach based on spatio-temporal stability maps of agricultural and livestock byproducts: A case study

Addressing the global challenge of energy sustainability and global directives on farming emissions, the United Nations, the European Union, and China have led with strict targets for clean energy, renewable share growth, and carbon neutrality, highlighting a commitment to collective sustainability. This work is situated within the ambit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), advocating for a transition towards renewable energy sources. With substantial and accessible bioenergy resources, notably in Hubei Province, China, biogas technology has emerged as an emission-cutting solution. This research, focused on the Jianghan Plain, employs an integrated approach combining spatial analyses with machine learning tools to evaluate crop yield stability over two decades, with the aim of maximising the biogas yield from agricultural byproducts, i.e., crop straw and livestock manure. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), which is informed by grey-based DEMATEL, 9 constraints and 13 environmental, social, and economic criteria were assessed to identify optimal sites for biogas facilities. The findings underscore the significant bioenergy potential of agricultural byproducts from the plain of 6.3 × 1012 kJ/year at an 11.4 kJ/m2 density. Stability analyses revealed consistent biomass availability, with rice in Gongan and Shayang and wheat in Jiangling being the primary contributors. Through the MCDA, 45–66 optimal biogas plants were identified across 4 critical counties (Zhongxiang, Shangyang, Jingshan, and Yichen), balancing the energy supply and demand under various stable scenarios. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the criticality of moderate biomass stability for stakeholder consensus and identified areas of high stability essential for energy demand fulfilment. Theoretically, this study offers a practical model for bioenergy resource exploitation that aligns with global sustainability and carbon neutrality goals to address the urgent need for renewable energy solutions amidst the global energy crisis. Practically, this study sets a precedent for policy and planning in environmental, agricultural, and renewable sectors, signifying a step forwards in achieving environmental sustainability and an energy-efficient future.

Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China’s carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy.

Trends, insights, and future prospects of renewable energy integration within the oil and gas sector operations

The integration of renewable energy within the operations of the oil and gas sector has emerged as a pivotal trend driven by environmental concerns, regulatory pressures, and technological advancements. This review explores the current trends, key insights, and future prospects associated with the adoption of renewable energy in the oil and gas sector. Trends indicate a notable shift towards incorporating renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydrogen into the traditional operations of oil and gas companies. This transition is motivated by the need to reduce carbon emissions, enhance operational efficiency, and diversify energy portfolios in alignment with sustainability goals. Companies are increasingly investing in renewable energy projects, leveraging their expertise and infrastructure to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the renewable sector. Insights gleaned from ongoing initiatives underscore the multifaceted benefits of integrating renewable energy within oil and gas operations. By deploying renewable energy technologies, companies can mitigate environmental impacts, optimize resource utilization, and enhance energy security. Moreover, the integration of renewables offers potential cost savings through reduced reliance on fossil fuels and access to government incentives aimed at promoting clean energy deployment. Looking ahead, the future prospects of renewable energy integration within the oil and gas sector appear promising yet challenging. Advancements in renewable energy technologies, coupled with declining costs, are expected to accelerate adoption rates and drive widespread implementation across the industry. However, challenges such as intermittency, grid integration, and infrastructure limitations pose significant hurdles that must be addressed through innovation and strategic planning. Furthermore, the evolving regulatory landscape and geopolitical dynamics may influence the pace and scope of renewable energy integration within the oil and gas sector. Policy frameworks promoting renewable energy deployment, carbon pricing mechanisms, and international agreements on climate action are likely to shape the trajectory of the industry in the coming years. The integration of renewable energy within the oil and gas sector represents a transformative trend with far-reaching implications for energy sustainability and corporate strategies. By embracing renewables, oil and gas companies can not only mitigate environmental risks but also position themselves for long-term competitiveness in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

Towards a Circular Solar Power Sector: Experience with a Support Framework for Business Model Innovation

The rapid expansion of the global solar photovoltaic (PV) market as part of the transition to a low-carbon energy future will increase both demand for raw materials used in PV product manufacturing as well as future PV panel waste volumes. There is an urgent need for solar industry businesses to adopt circular business models, and to support this process through targeted tools and methods that can facilitate the innovation process of such models. This paper employs an action-oriented case study methodology, drawing on insights garnered from five demonstrator cases that have applied and validated a Circular Business Model Innovation (CBMI) framework within the PV sector. Results show how this framework was applied in practice during the ideation, design, experimentation, and scaling phases of the innovation process. Specifically, results show how an experimental and iterative approach was found critical to assess viability, desirability, and feasibility of circular business strategies. The study’s empirical testing of tools with the context of a Circular Economy complements earlier theoretical conceptualizations of business model innovation processes. It illustrates how using multiple tools can provide firms with complementary insights in each stage of ideation, design, testing, and scaling of business models. It is recommended that policy makers and business leaders endorse such co-creative and experimental approaches to foster learning and business model innovation, thereby catalysing the transformation of an entire renewable energy industry sector towards Circular Economy.

Indonesiaʼs energy transition: Dependency, subsidies and renewables

AbstractIndonesiaʼs economy is highly dependent on the fossil fuel industry as evidenced in measures of non‐taxable revenue, energy subsidy, energy mix and regulatory flexibility. To cut carbon emissions by 41% in 2030, the energy system needs to transition faster than anticipated through progressive reforms and investment. Policy makers understandably are fearful of the shocks and unrests resulted from fossil fuel subsidy reform. However, the fears were shown to be an over‐reaction, especially if poorer households were supported. The state‐owned enterprise, Perusahaan Listrik Negara, is the central player in the tug of war between the fossil fuel and renewable sectors. The government should signal unwavering support for international investment in the renewables, and update the regulation on rooftop solar that boosts return on investment for domestic households. International investors will need modelling of cost competitiveness of wind farms against coal‐fired plants in more remote areas.

Lifecycle carbon footprints of buildings and sustainability pathways in China

The Paris Agreement, with a 2 °C temperature increase baseline and a 1.5 °C target temperature increase, imposes challenges to the sustainability of buildings. However, as an end-user or end-of-the-art, the building sector overlaps with other sectors, such as industry and transportation in building materials manufacturing (such as steel, concrete, cement, etc. ) and electricity use (such as building-to-vehicle charging), imposing difficulties in lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings. In this study, the lifecycle carbon footprint of buildings and sustainability pathways in China are provided. Tools and platforms for lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings are reviewed. A global database for lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings is reviewed and compared, together with an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, decarbonization technologies in the building operation stage are comprehensively reviewed, including the decarbonization potential, technology readiness level (TRL), techno-economic performance, and current technical status. Pathways on carbon neutrality in building sectors in China are provided. The results indicate that inconsistencies in global databases, unclear definitions of lifecycle carbon emissions, and inaccurate models of building energy consumption are the main challenges for accurate lifecycle carbon analysis in buildings. Various carbon neutrality transformation technologies can be classified into ultralow energy building and near zero-energy building technologies and into efficient heat pump and smart metering technologies. Pathways for low-carbon transition in building sectors include building energy saving (330 million tCO2 with 22%), renewable energy supply (299 million tCO2 with 20%), building electrification and power sector decarbonization (450 million tCO2 with 30%), and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology (420 million tCO2 with 28%). These research results can pave the way for upcoming studies on the lifecycle carbon footprint in buildings and sustainability pathways in China.

Integrating AI-Driven Green Finance Strategies for Sustainable Development: A Comparative Analysis of Renewable Energy Investments in Germany and Denmark

This research explores the convergence of synthetic intelligence (SI) and inexperienced finance techniques in influencing the development of renewable power sectors, with a specific focus on Denmark and Germany for the critical periods of 2019 and 2020. ANOVA, paired sample t-tests, and regression analysis were used as part of a strict method to look into how the production of renewable energy has changed and how AI-driven financial techniques have affected it. The results spotlight the effectiveness of AI-driven green finance solutions in bringing approximately enormous ameliorations, establishing Denmark as a probable exemplar for sustainable progress. In evaluation, Germany’s consistent power infrastructure, blended with a fantastic correlation exposed in regression evaluation, highlights the durability of its environmentally pleasant economic methods. This study presents a well-timed and informative guide for developing effective, inexperienced finance rules that guide a greener and more sustainable future as international locations all around the world address environmental-demanding situations.

Foundations of onshore Wind turbines: current situation and trends

The commitments by the governments for the net zero emissions for the coming decades will be a huge challenge for the renewable sector all over the planet. Wind energy will play a significant role in this transition and scale-up, in both offshore and onshore, is a crucial step to move forward. The quick development of the new onshore wind turbine models in the race for the most powerful machine, the gradual increase in the hub height, and the unitary power of the new onshore wind turbines are producing modifications in different components of the turbines. This work presents a review of the onshore wind turbines foundations, especially about the different foundation design concepts available in the onshore business, the analysis of some of them and the trends.

Robust capital cost optimization of generation and multitimescale storage requirements for a 100% renewable Australian electricity grid.

Transitioning from a fossil-fuel-dependent economy to one based on renewable energy requires significant investment and technological advancement. While wind and solar technologies provide lower cost electricity, enhanced energy storage and transmission infrastructure come at a cost for managing renewable intermittency. Energy storage systems vary in characteristics and costs, and future grids will incorporate multiple technologies, yet the optimal combination of storage technologies and the role of interconnectors in alleviating storage needs are not widely explored. This study focuses on optimal generation-storage capacity requirements to elucidate associated investments. We propose a multitimescale storage solution consisting of three storage categories and an interconnector between Australia's eastern and western grids. Subsequently, through an extensive sensitivity analysis, we investigate the impact of specific storage technologies and cost variations. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed interconnector offers a cost-effective solution, reducing generation and storage power capacity needs by 6 and 14%, respectively, resulting in 4% savings on overall investment costs. Moreover, the study's sensitivity analysis reveals that wind generation provides 50-70% of the energy demand for the least-cost solution. Despite storage inefficiencies, long-duration storage would need to be deployed to support power capacity for 2-4 days, representing 15-40% of peak demand, depending on future technology costs. Subsequently, achieving a fully renewable electricity sector in Australia requires a significant expansion of generation and storage infrastructure, with a 13-fold increase in storage power capacity and a 40-fold increase in storage energy capacity compared to existing levels.

Quantifying the impact of interest rate volatility on Asian energy companies: A comparative study of fossil and renewable sectors

This study examines the impact of government bond yield volatility on companies in the fossil and renewable energy sectors in five Asian countries from 2015 to 2023. The analysis uses quantile-based methods to explore the spillover effects of yield volatility on companies with high and low debt levels in these sectors. The findings show that yield volatility tends to transmit shocks at lower quantiles and over shorter periods. The network connectedness is more critical at extreme upper and lower quantiles in the short term. The results also reveal significant differences in how yield volatility affects companies with high and low leverage levels, and these effects vary across the sample countries. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the influence of yield volatility on financial decision-making in different contexts and industries. The study's results underscore the imperative for policymakers and stakeholders in the energy industry to give precedence to improving risk management methods.