As a damage-associated molecular pattern protein, high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) is associated with kidney and systemic inflammation. The predictive and therapeutic value of HMGB1 as a biomarker has been confirmed in various diseases. However, its value in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the correlation between serum and urine HMGB1 levels and DKD progression. We recruited 196 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), including 109 with DKD and 87 T2DM patients without DKD. Additionally, 60 healthy participants without T2DM were also recruited as controls. Serum and urine samples were collected for HMGB1 analysis. Simultaneously, tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 1A (TNFR-1) in serum and kidney injury molecule (KIM-1) in urine samples were evaluated for comparison. Serum and urine HMGB1 levels were significantly higher in patients with DKD than in patients with T2DM and healthy controls. Additionally, serum HMGB1 levels significantly and positively correlated with serum TNFR-1 (R 2=0.567, p<0.001) and urine KIM-1 levels (R 2=0.440, p<0.001), and urine HMGB1 has a similar correlation. In the population with T2DM, the risk of DKD progression increased with an increase in serum HMGB1 levels. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated serum HMGB1 level was an independent risk factor for renal function progression in patients with DKD, and regression analysis did not change in the model corrected for multiple variables. The restricted cubic spline depicted a nonlinear relationship between serum HMGB1 and renal function progression in patients with DKD (p-nonlinear=0.007, p<0.001), and this positive effect remained consistent across subgroups. Serum HMGB1 was significantly correlated with DKD and disease severity. When the HMGB1 level was ≥27 ng/ml, the risk of renal progression increased sharply, indicating that serum HMGB1 can be used as a potential biomarker for the diagnosis of DKD progression.