Reliable Prediction Model Research Articles

AI4ACEIP: A Computing Tool to Identify Food Peptides with High Inhibitory Activity for ACE by Merged Molecular Representation and Rich Intrinsic Sequence Information Based on an Ensemble Learning Strategy.

Hypertension is a common chronic disorder and a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) converts angiotensin I to angiotensin II, causing vasoconstriction and raising blood pressure. Pharmacotherapy is the mainstay of traditional hypertension treatment, leading to various negative side effects. Some food-derived peptides can suppress ACE, named ACEIP with fewer undesirable effects. Therefore, it is crucial to seek strong dietary ACEIP to aid in hypertension treatment. In this article, we propose a new model called AI4ACEIP to identify ACEIP. AI4ACEIP uses a novel two-layer stacked ensemble architecture to predict ACEIP relying on integrated view features derived from sequence, large language models, and molecular-based information. The analysis of feature combinations reveals that four selected integrated feature pairs exhibit enhancing performance for identifying ACEIP. For finding meta models with strong abilities to learn information from integrated feature pairs, PowerShap, a feature selection method, is used to select 40 optimal feature and meta model combinations. Compared with seven state-of-the-art methods on the source and clear benchmark data sets, AI4ACEIP significantly outperformed by 8.47 to 20.65% and 5.49 to 14.42% for Matthew's correlation coefficient. In brief, AI4ACEIP is a reliable model for ACEIP prediction and is freely available at https://github.com/abcair/AI4ACEIP.

Challenges in developing reliable phosphorus predictive models: Unpredictable release under soil redox changes

Phosphorus (P), crucial for plant nutrition, is unevenly distributed in the Earth's crust, necessitating its supplementation in agriculture through fertilizers. However, excessive use can lead to water pollution. Our research focuses on the P adsorbing complex, investigating P release due to flooding, using 12 well- characterized soils with contrasting properties. Our research measures directly the P-adsorbing complex using adsorption/desorption isotherms. We observed that the P concentration in the solution —sufficient to prevent desorption yet low enough to avoid further sorption by the soil— decreases when the soil undergoes complete reduction (anoxia). When grouped by similarity, calcareous soils exhibit higher maximum P adsorption capacities (Xmax) under alternating reducing conditions (ARC) compared to continuous reducing conditions (CRC). In slightly acidic soils, CRC leads to a wider spread in Xmax values than ARC. For acidic, organic matter-rich soils, ARC results in the highest Xmax values (123 mmol P kg-1 soil) compared to CRC, whereas in acidic, light-textured soils, CRC shows significantly higher mean Xmax values than ARC. Nevertheless, we were unable to develop a predictive model for soil P desorption based on key intrinsic properties and climate. When an environmental or anthropogenic transformation induces anoxia, the P released does not follow a predictable pattern.

Analysis and Prediction of Path Loss for Mobile Communication Lines in Nasarawa State Using Propagation Models

The design of future-generation mobile communication systems depends critically on the path loss prediction methods and their suitability to various signal propagation regions. Even though 5G has been launched in Nigeria, its deployment still faces significant challenges especially in the suburban, and non-urban regions which still depends on 4G. Many operators are still in the process of upgrading their existing 4G networks to support network coverage and higher speed data throughput. Due to the unique mix of Nasarawa State with diverse terrains, in this study, path loss prediction for the key telecommunication networks in Nasarawa State was carried out using Signal Strength Info App. Data was collected for a period of eight weeks (August, 2nd to September, 4th 2023) focusing on 4G LTE networks operating within the 1800 MHz frequency band. Analysis of path loss using empirical models such as Hata, Egli, and COST-231 Hata models were compared with the measured path loss in different terrains of urban, sub-urban, and non-urban environments. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) analysis was carried out between empirical and measured path losses. Results shows that, the order of mean predicted path loss at 5km was free space model (BN>CN>DN.AN), Hata model (DN>BN>CN>AN), Cos-231 Hata model (CN>AN>BN>DN), and Egli model (AN>BN>DN>CN). Hate model predicted the highest path loss values while Egli model predicted the lowest values. Overall, Egli model is found to be the most reliable and suitable path loss prediction model for entire Nasarawa State with RMSE value 5.99dBm, 2.90dBm and 3.14dBm for Nasarawa, Keffi and Akwanga LGA respectively. However, Cost-231 Hata model with RMSE value of 5.71dBm is suitable for path loss prediction in Karu due to its irregular terrain. The findings of this study are significant for practical applications in network planning, base station coverage, frequency allocation, and signal strength management, ensuring optimal mobile network performance across various terrains.

Predicting Market Share Patterns using LSTM

Forecasting stock prices is a significant challenge in the financial sector, marked by its complexity and the impact of numerous variables. In this paper, we undertake a comprehensive investigation into how machine learning algorithms can be effectively applied to address this challenge. Our main goal is to clarify the methodologies and strategies that can enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. We explore the complex process of predicting stock values and scrutinize the various machine learning algorithms that have been suggested and employed for this purpose. By critically evaluating these algorithms, we aim to provide insights into their individual strengths and weaknesses, ultimately helping the reader make an informed decision about the most appropriate algorithm for their specific forecasting requirements. Beyond algorithm selection and attribute analysis, our review also considers external factors that can significantly influence stock prices. These factors include a broad range of variables, such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, corporate news, and market sentiment. Understanding the interaction between these external elements and stock market dynamics is essential for developing more robust and reliable prediction models.

Personal Bankruptcy Prediction Using Logistic Regression Model

According to the Insolvency Department of Malaysia, as of December 2023, 233,483 Malaysians are currently involved in bankruptcy cases due to their defaults on hire purchase loans, credit card loans, personal loans, housing loans, and business loans. This is indeed a critical issue because the growing number of personal bankruptcy cases will hurt the Malaysian economy as well as society. From an individual's economic perspective, bankruptcy minimizes their chances of getting a job. Apart from that, their accounts will be frozen, they will lose control of their properties and assets, and they will not be allowed to start any business or be a part of any company's Board of Directors. Bankrupts also will be rejected from any loan application. This paper examines this problem by developing a personal bankruptcy prediction model using the logistic regression technique. This paper defines "bankrupt" as terminated members who failed to settle their loans. The sample comprised 24,546 cases with 17% settled cases and 83% terminated cases. The data included a dependent variable, i.e., bankruptcy status (Y=1(bankrupt), Y=0(non-bankrupt)), and 12 predictors. Upon completion, this paper succeeds in coming out with a reliable personal bankruptcy prediction model and significant variables of personal bankruptcy. The findings of this paper are very beneficial and significant to creditors, banks, the Malaysia Department of Insolvency, potential borrowers, members of AKPK, and society in general in raising awareness of personal bankruptcy risks and such information may help them to take preventive measures in minimizing the number of personal bankruptcy cases.

Construction of a prediction model for induction of labor based on a small sample of clinical indicator data

Because of the diversity and complexity of clinical indicators, it is difficult to establish a comprehensive and reliable prediction model for induction of labor (IOL) outcomes with existing methods. This study aims to analyze the clinical indicators related to IOL and to develop and evaluate a prediction model based on a small-sample of data. The study population consisted of a total of 90 pregnant women who underwent IOL between February 2023 and January 2024 at the Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Healthcare Hospital, and a total of 52 clinical indicators were recorded. Maximal information coefficient (MIC) was used to select features for clinical indicators to reduce the risk of overfitting caused by high-dimensional features. Then, based on the features selected by MIC, the support vector machine (SVM) model based on small samples was compared and analyzed with the fully connected neural network (FCNN) model based on large samples in deep learning, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was given. By calculating the MIC score, the final feature dimension was reduced from 55 to 15, and the area under curve (AUC) of the SVM model was improved from 0.872 before feature selection to 0.923. Model comparison results showed that SVM had better prediction performance than FCNN. This study demonstrates that SVM successfully predicted IOL outcomes, and the MIC feature selection effectively improves the model's generalization ability, making the prediction results more stable. This study provides a reliable method for predicting the outcome of induced labor with potential clinical applications.

A LSTM algorithm-driven deep learning approach to estimating repair and maintenance costs of apartment buildings

PurposeThis study proposes a deep learning algorithm-based model to predict the repair and maintenance costs of apartment buildings, by collecting repair and maintenance cost data that were incurred in an actual apartment complex. More specifically, a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm was adopted to develop the prediction model, while the robustness of the model was verified by recurrent neural networks (RNN) and gated recurrent units (GRU) models.Design/methodology/approachRepair and maintenance cost data incurred in actual apartment complexes is collected, along with various input variables, such as repair and maintenance timing (calendar year), usage types, building ages, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and solar radiation. Then, the LSTM algorithm is employed to predict the costs, while two other learning models (RNN and GRU) are taught to validate the robustness of the LSTM model based on R-squared values, mean absolute errors and root mean square errors.FindingsThe LSTM model’s learning is more accurate and reliable to predict repair and maintenance costs of apartment complex, compared to the RNN and GRU models’ learning performance. The proposed model provides a valuable tool that can contribute to mitigating financial management risks and reducing losses in forthcoming apartment construction projects.Originality/valueGathering a real-world high-quality data set of apartment’s repair and maintenance costs, this study provides a highly reliable prediction model that can respond to various scenarios to help apartment complex managers plan resources more efficiently, and manage the budget required for repair and maintenance more effectively.

Coupling SWAT and Transformer Models for Enhanced Monthly Streamflow Prediction

The establishment of an accurate and reliable predictive model is essential for water resources planning and management. Standalone models, such as physics-based hydrological models or data-driven hydrological models, have their specific applications, strengths, and limitations. In this study, a hybrid model (namely SWAT-Transformer) was developed by coupling the physics-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with the data-driven Transformer to enhance monthly streamflow prediction accuracy. SWAT is first constructed and calibrated, and then its outputs are used as part of the inputs to Transformer. By correcting the prediction errors of SWAT using Transformer, the two models are effectively coupled. Monthly runoff data at Yan’an and Ganguyi stations on Yan River, a first-order tributary of the Yellow River Basin, were used to evaluate the proposed model’s performance. The results indicated that SWAT performed well in predicting high flows but poorly in low flows. In contrast, Transformer was able to capture low-flow period information more accurately and outperformed SWAT overall. SWAT-Transformer could correct the errors of SWAT predictions and overcome the limitations of a single model. By integrating SWAT’s detailed physical process portrayal with Transformer’s powerful time-series analysis, the coupled model significantly improved streamflow prediction accuracy. The proposed models offer more accurate and reliable predictions for optimal water resource management, which is crucial for sustainable economic and societal development.

Assessment and prediction of Water Quality Index (WQI) by seasonal key water parameters in a coastal city: application of machine learning models.

The Water Quality Index (WQI) provides comprehensive assessments in river systems; however, its calculation involves numerous water quality parameters, costly in sample collection and laboratory analysis. The study aimed to determine key water parameters and the most reliable models, considering seasonal variations in the water environment, to maximize the precision of WQI prediction by a minimal set of water parameters. Ten statistical or machine learning models were developed to predict the WQI over four seasons using water quality dataset collected in a coastal city adjacent to the Yellow Sea in China, based on which the key water parameters were identified and the variations were assessed by the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL). Results indicated that model performance generally improved with adding more input variables except Self-Organizing Map (SOM). Tree-based ensemble methods like Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Random Forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy, particularly in winter. Nutrients (Ammonia Nitrogen (AN) and Total Phosphorus (TP)), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), and turbidity were determined as key water parameters, based on which, the prediction accuracy for Medium and Low grades was perfect while it was over 80% for the Good grade in spring and winter and dropped to around 70% in summer and autumn. Nutrient concentrations were higher at inland stations; however, it worsened at coastal stations, especially in summer. The study underscores the importance of reliable WQI prediction models in water quality assessment, especially when data is limited, which are crucial for managing water resources effectively.

Application of a support vector regression model employing meta-heuristic algorithms for estimating pile bearing capacity

ABSTRACT The design of pile foundations hinges significantly on the pile-bearing capacity (PBC), a crucial factor affected by numerous soil features and parameters. Piles serve as a key component in relocating structural loads to the ground, underscoring the need for accurately determining PBC in geotechnical design. While prior research has delved into utilizing artificial neural networks (ANN) for predicting PBC, they encounter shortcomings such as grappling with finding global minima and slow convergence rates. This study introduces Support Vector Regression (SVR) as a machine-learning approach, augmented by two meta-heuristic optimization techniques: the Giant Trevally Optimizer (GTO) and Smell Agent Optimization (SAO), to achieve optimal results. These techniques empower engineers and data scientists to develop more precise and reliable predictive models in geotechnical engineering, ultimately enhancing the safety and efficiency of foundation design and construction. Drawing upon an extensive dataset compiled from previous studies, a predictive model was constructed to estimate PBC using soft computing techniques. The outcomes overwhelmingly favored the SVGT model, a fusion of the SVR model with GTO, demonstrating excellent anticipative capacities with an outstanding R2 value of 0.998 and an impressively low RMSE value of 91.21.

Bayesian inference of coupled groundwater flow and radiogenic helium-4 production and transport at the catchment scale

Hydrogeological numerical models are essential for assessing radioactive waste disposal by understanding groundwater flow systems. These models typically rely on hydraulic head data, with other state variables often underutilized in model inversions. In Flanders' Neogene aquifer, where safety studies for Boom Clay are ongoing, existing models face uncertainties due to dependence on hydraulic heads alone. This study aims to: i) develop a conceptual model of radiogenic Helium-4 (4Herad) production and transport to reproduce observed concentrations; ii) evaluate the usefulness of 4Herad observations as an additional state variable for inverse conditioning; and iii) assess how including 4Herad affects model calibration and uncertainty reduction. We address these objectives by incorporating radiogenic Helium-4 (4Herad) as an unconventional state variable in model inversion to tackle parameter non-uniqueness. Utilizing a Bayesian approach, we employ two 3D models: a groundwater flow (GWF) model conditioned by hydraulic heads and a coupled GWF model with 4Herad production and transport, conditioned by both hydraulic heads and 4Herad concentrations. We hypothesize that integrating 4Herad will improve model accuracy and reduce uncertainties compared to using hydraulic head data alone. Findings indicate that major 4Herad sources include crustal fluxes (~57 %) and in situ Boom Clay production (~25 %). The coupled inference narrows the posterior distributions of parameters, especially for hydraulic conductivity (e.g., Mol, Diest, Berchem formations, and the Rauw Fault) and recharge, showing that 4Herad observations effectively reduce uncertainty beyond hydraulic head data. Including 4Herad improves model reliability and prediction accuracy, highlighting its importance for refining groundwater flow parameters and derived fluxes. To the best of our knowledge, this study marks the first-ever attempt at harnessing 4Herad quantitative insights into flow and transport parameters following a Bayesian approach at a catchment scale, setting a precedent for future research and emphasizing the innovative nature of this work. This study showcases a state-of-the-art approach in hydrogeological modelling, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating 4Herad with hydraulic head observations to produce more reliable model predictions. By reducing uncertainties in crucial groundwater fluxes, this approach offers significant potential for improving geological disposal safety studies. This pioneering work advocates for the continued use of 4Herad in hydrogeological modelling, emphasizing its innovative contribution to future research and safety studies. Plain language summaryUnderstanding how groundwater flows is crucial for safely storing radioactive waste. Traditionally, models used to study groundwater rely mostly on measurements of water pressure, while other valuable data often go unused. In the Neogene aquifer in Flanders, where researchers are studying the Boom Clay formation for potential waste storage, relying only on water pressure has created uncertainties in the models. This study explores a new approach by using a different type of measurement: radiogenic Helium-4 (4Herad). The goals of the study are threefold: first, to build a model that accurately represents how 4Herad is produced and moves through the groundwater; second, to test whether including 4Herad as an additional measurement improves the model compared to using only water pressure data; and third, to see how using 4Herad affects the accuracy and reliability of the model. The study uses two types of models: one that relies only on water pressure data and another that includes both water pressure and 4Herad measurements. The idea is that 4Herad could provide additional insights and help reduce uncertainties in the model. The findings show that 4Herad comes mainly from two sources: the surrounding crust and the Boom Clay itself. Including 4Herad in the model helps narrow down uncertainties, particularly regarding how water moves through different layers and how much water is being replenished. This research is the first to use 4Herad in this way, using a formal statistical method to improve groundwater models. The results suggest that 4Herad is a valuable addition for making more accurate predictions and improving safety assessments for radioactive waste storage.

Identifying risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome in critically ill patients: a retrospective study.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening condition that can develop in critically ill patients. Early identification of risk factors associated with ARDS development is essential for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the potential predictors of ARDS in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We conducted a retrospective study involving 502 critically ill patients admitted to the ICUs of three hospitals. Demographic and clinical data, including laboratory test results, were collected during their ICU stay. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with the development of ARDS. Among the 502 critically ill patients, 104 (20.7%) patients developed ARDS during their ICU stay, with a median time to development of 5.2 days. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.13; P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17; P = 0.013), T lymphocyte count (OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.69-0.93; P = 0.011), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.08-1.23; P = 0.003) were independently associated with the development of ARDS in critically ill patients. Our study identified age, CRP, T lymphocyte count, and IL-6 as independent predictors of ARDS in critically ill patients admitted to the ICU. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring these parameters in critically ill patients to identify those at high risk of developing ARDS. Early recognition and intervention based on these risk factors may improve patient outcomes in the ICU setting. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate these results and develop a reliable predictive model for ARDS in critically ill patients.

Craniofacial features and incisor position design of esthetics population after orthodontic treatment.

This study aims to provide craniofacial features and incisor position prediction models among esthetics population after orthodontic treatment. A total of 338 patients with esthetic profiles were selected from 1 055 post-orthodontic adults based on inclusion and exclusion criteria and scored by five dental students. Mean values of cephalometric measurement were demonstrated with gender and sagittal skeletal pattern (ANB) differences assessed by generalized estimating equation. Correlations among age, skeletal, and soft tissue variables in different genders were determined. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the influence of skeletal and soft tissue variables on orthodontic incisor position. Within the esthetic cohort after orthodontic treatment, gender differences existed in cranial and mandibular length, mandibular rotation, protrusion of pogonion, inclination of maxillary incisors, upper lip thickness, lower 1/3 face height, and nose protrusion. However, in class Ⅰ malocclusion, the development of the chin showed no significance, whereas the protrusion of the lower lip significantly differed between genders, with less protrusion in males. In males, the protrusion of lip and chin varied among groups, with thinner basic upper lip thickness of class Ⅱ than class Ⅰ and greater lower lip height of class Ⅲ than class Ⅰ. In females, the protrusion and height of the upper lip and chin varied in groups, with thicker basic upper lip thickness of class Ⅲ than class Ⅰ. Upper lip thickness, female basic upper lip thickness, and female lower lip height were correlated with age. The protrusion of the upper lip was mainly correlated with posterior cranial base, mandibular body length, ANB in male and SNA, ANB, sagittal maxillary length, mandibular rotation, and protrusion of pogonion in female. The protrusion of the lower lip in males was mainly correlated with ramus height, mandibular rotation, protrusion of pogonion in male and ANB, mandibular rotation, and protrusion of pogonion in females. After employing skeletal variables to fit dental parameters, optimal results were achieved in male IMPA (adjusted R2=0.712) and female G Vert-U1 (adjusted R2=0.795). After employing skeletal and soft tissue variables simultaneously, optimal results were achieved in male and female G Vert-U1, which was mainly influenced by the protrusion of the chin and nasal base in males (adjusted R2=0.836) and the protrusion of the nasal base as well as ANB in females (adjusted R2=0.842). This study demonstrated the craniofacial features of esthetics population after orthodontic treatment and revealed the correlation of gender, age, skeleton, and soft tissues to provide reliable prediction models for aesthetic orthodontic incisor position.

HYBRID ARCHITECTURE WITH IMPROVED SCORE LEVEL FUSION FOR PATIENT WAITING TIME PREDICTION

Hospitals are overcrowded in proportion to the massive increase in population, making it difficult for hospitals to manage or arrange or shorten patient wait time during medical care. However, it is difficult to overstate the significance of patient waiting time management and predictability. In most of the hospitals, the clinical workflow is defined and driven by the patient queues. Predicting the incoming patients and waiting times has thus emerged as one of the most crucial clinical management techniques. Our proposed work aims to address the limitations of current waiting time prediction models by providing a more sophisticated, data-driven approach that can adapt to the complexities of healthcare environments. This work focuses on developing a new model for predicting the patient’s waiting time. The primary aim of this research is to create a reliable predictive model capable of accurately anticipating patient waiting times. This innovation aims to enhance both patient satisfaction and operational efficiency within healthcare settings. By offering healthcare administrators a tool to better manage patient flow, allocate resources efficiently, and minimize waiting times, this model seeks to optimize overall healthcare service delivery. The initial process carried out is pre-processing which includes data acquisition and improved [Formula: see text]-score normalization. Subsequently, entropy features, correlation features, and improved mutual information (MI) features are extracted. Then, prediction is carried out using hybrid classifier (HC) that involves a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU). Finally, improved score level fusion (ISLF) is introduced to get absolute outcomes on WTP. The analysis outcomes on varied error metrics show the efficacy of the proposed WTP model.

Microstructure evolution and high temperature air oxidation behaviour of thick Cr coatings at 1200 °C

The thick Cr coated Zr-4 alloys were prepared by magnetron sputtering deposition and their microstructure evolution and high-temperature air oxidation behaviour were investigated. Oxidation tests showed that the thick Cr coatings can improve the high-temperature air oxidation resistance of Zr-4 alloy even if the α-Zr(O) layer was formed at some regions. The mechanism of high-temperature air oxidation was also discussed in detail, and these experimental results could provide data for establishing a reliable prediction model of this degradation.

Application of Machine Learning Methods in Predicting Lysine-specific Histone Demethylase 1 (LSD1) Inhibitors

Background: Lysine-specific histone demethylase 1 (LSD1) is a well-known anti-cancer target for drug discovery. Novel reversible inhibitors of LSD1 are desirable to be developed. Objective: This study aimed to build reliable predictive models to evaluate the antineoplastic efficacy of compounds and reveal the structural foundation underlying the inhibitory activity of LSD1. Methods: Multiple artificial intelligence algorithms were utilized in the development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. A dataset comprising 915 compounds with welldefined IC50 values against LSD1 was assembled for analysis. The structures of these compounds were described by different descriptor packages. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to explore the chemical space distribution of each dataset. Y-randomization test and applicability domain (AD) analysis were deployed to validate the reliability of models. Results: For regression models, a consensus model was constructed by integrating the predictions of four top-performing individual models (SVM_ECFP4, RFR_PyDescriptor, RFR_RDKIT, and TRANSNNI), resulting in enhanced predictive performance as compared to the individual models. The consensus model achieved a determination coefficient (r2, for the test set) value of 0.82. For classification models, the consensus model was derived from the amalgamation of three individual models (ASNN_RDKIT, ASNN_ECFP4, and RFR_ECFP4), and the overall prediction accuracy of the model was 0.96 for external validation. Conclusion: The reliable models could be used to identify highly active LSD1 inhibitors for the purpose of efficient virtual screening. In addition, the important molecular properties and structural fragments derived from this work can provide guidance for the structural optimization of novel LSD1 inhibitors.

Multi-year La Niña frequency tied to southward tropical Pacific wind shift

AbstractMulti-year La Niña events cause prolonged climate disruptions worldwide, but a systematic understanding of the underlying mechanisms is not yet established. Here we show using observations and models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project that a greater frequency of consecutive La Niña events is tied to the upper equatorial Pacific Ocean when it favors more rapid heat discharge. The propensity for heat discharge is underscored by negative skewness in upper-ocean heat content, underpinned by southward tropical Pacific wind shift during austral summer. Models with stronger westerly anomalies south of the equator simulate steeper east-to-west upward tilt of the thermocline that is favorable for a greater discharge rate. This highlights the crucial role of the southward wind shift in the nonlinear system of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The large inter-model spread in multi-year La Niña processes underscores the need in constraining models for reliable climate prediction and projection.

Improve Metode Lightgbm untuk Prediksi Harga Mobil Bekas Menggunakan Hyper-Parameter Tuning

This study aims to predict used car prices using the LightGBM method and hyperparameter tuning techniques in the context of data science. The analysis process includes collecting historical data on used cars, preprocessing the data to clean and encode variables, and splitting the data into training and testing sets. The LightGBM model was trained and optimized through hyperparameter tuning using GridSearchCV to improve model performance. The model was evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. The results indicate that the well-optimized LightGBM model can accurately predict used car prices with high accuracy. The low MSE value (35207938112.028404) and high R-squared value (0.9462871489515565) demonstrate the model's excellent predictive quality. This research provides deeper insights into the factors influencing used car prices and contributes to the development of effective and reliable predictive models.

Energy consumption forecasting in PCM-integration buildings considering building and environmental parameters for future climate scenarios

Despite numerous machine learning methods being employed to predict the energy consumption of PCM-integrated buildings, key research gaps remain. Most studies focus solely on building parameters while omitting important environmental parameters, including precipitation and air pressure. No study evaluated and proposed prediction models for PCM-integrated buildings considering future climate scenarios. Also, as per the authors′ knowledge, no researcher has assessed the impact of variations in the hyperparameter, especially for decision tree-based prediction models to develop a reliable prediction model with less complexity and a high degree of interpretability between independent and dependent variables. This research addresses these gaps by evaluating fine, medium, and coarse decision trees for predicting energy consumption in PCM-integrated buildings under future climate scenarios by considering extensive building and environmental parameters simultaneously. A database for energy consumption was created through energy simulations for 11 cities in hot semi-arid climates. The Fine Decision Tree (FDT3) emerged as the most accurate prediction model, with R2 values over 94 % in training and testing phases based on model evaluation and validation processes. Parametric analysis further revealed that both environmental and building parameters are crucial in accurately predicting the energy consumption of PCM-integrated buildings using FDT3.

Dynamic Behavior of Impacting Droplet on the Edges of Different Wettability Surface.

The dynamic behavior of impacting droplet shearing by the surface edge with different wettabilities is complicated and has great significance for engineering application. The morphological evolution of droplet with various Weber numbers (We) and wettability impacting on the edge of square substrate is investigated by high-speed photography. Moreover, the effects of the contact angle (α) and Weber numbers (We) on the shear breaking process of droplets are obtained. There are three types morphological evolution of impacting droplet are observed experimentally, including unbroken, tensile breakup, and shear breakup. Contact angle and Weber number have been proved to be the significant factors affecting the type of droplet morphological evolution. Meanwhile, the critical Weber number of different types are obtained quantitatively. Moreover, as α increases, the critical Weber numbers for breakup increase. In the shear breakup process, the mass ratio between the droplets remaining on the substrate and the initial droplets is maintained at 50%. Particularly, a reliable prediction model for the spreading of droplet impacting the side wall is proposed and compared with the experimental data. Overall, this study provides new direction and guidance for exploring droplet breakup kinetics.