Relaxed Clock Model Research Articles

Cicada minimum age tree: Cryptic speciation and exponentially increasing base substitution rates in recent geologic time

We developed a new time-calibrated tree incorporating primarily endemic along with some cryptic Ryukyu islands cicada data, following the recent publication of global cicada data by Marshall et al. (2018), Łukasik et al. (2018), Simon et al. (2019), Price et al. (2019), and Hill et al. (2021). A total of 352 specimens were analyzed using BEAST v1. X software with a relaxed clock model. Fossil calibrations as old as Triassic were adopted largely following Johnson et al. (2018) and Moulds (2018), and a Quaternary geological event calibration was adopted following Osozawa et al. (2012, 2021b) and input into BEAST v1. X. Our timetree suggests that Tettigarctidae had a cicada basal lineage as old as 200.63 Ma, with Derotettiginae the next oldest lineage at 99.2 Ma. Tibicininae is a sister of the remaining subfamilies of Tettigomyiinae, Cicadettinae, and Cicadidae, and their species level differentiation and radiation began at 40.57 Ma. The Cicadinae clade consists of specific tribes with paraphyletic relationship, and the vicariance and adaptive radiation generated many cryptic species in each tribe. We estimated base substitution rate as a function of age, and the result strongly indicates an exponential increase of base substitution rate in recent geologic time. The consequent increase in cicada biodiversity, including generation of cryptic species in the Ryukyu Islands and surroundings, may have been driven by the generation and spreading of C4 grasses and coeval Quaternary climate change.

A new discovery of cryptic species in barred sand burrower Limnichthys fasciatus (Pisces: Creediidae) from the western Pacific, with evolutionary perspectives of anti-equatorial species.

Although the barred sand burrower, Limnichthys fasciatus, is widely distributed throughout the western Pacific, including Japan, Taiwan, and Australia, its morphology and genetics are poorly known. We discovered four cryptic species of Limnichthys from the western Pacific based on mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) sequences. Genetic distances showed remarkably large differences (12.7%-24.3% in COI and 7.9%-19.6% in 16S rRNA) between true L. fasciatus (type locality: southeastern Australia) and the others. A relaxed clock model with optimized selected substitution models showed that their deep divergence began in the middle Miocene epoch and subsequently diverged into the current cryptic species in the Plio-Pleistocene. A eurythermal common ancestor may have evolved independently in each region due to geographical events and paleoclimatic fluctuations, which made it possible for L. fasciatus complex to be an anti-equatorial species. Despite their deep genetic divergence, they showed marked phenotypic similarity, suggesting that they have experienced similar selective pressures related to their specific behavior.

A molecular phylogeny of the Petaluridae (Odonata: Anisoptera): A 160-Million-Year-Old story of drift and extinction

Petaluridae (Odonata: Anisoptera) is a relict dragonfly family, having diverged from its sister family in the Jurassic, of eleven species that are notable among odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) for their exclusive use of fen and bog habitats, their burrowing behavior as nymphs, large body size as adults, and extended lifespans. To date, several nodes within this family remain unresolved, limiting the study of the evolution of this peculiar family. Using an anchored hybrid enrichment dataset of over 900 loci we reconstructed the species tree of Petaluridae. To estimate the temporal origin of the genera within this family, we used a set of well-vetted fossils and a relaxed molecular clock model in a divergence time estimation analysis. We estimate that Petaluridae originated in the early Cretaceous and confirm the existence of monophyletic Gondwanan and Laurasian clades within the family. Our relaxed molecular clock analysis estimated that these clades diverged from their MRCA approximately 160 mya. Extant lineages within this family were identified to have persisted from 6 (Uropetala) to 120 million years (Phenes). Our biogeographical analyses focusing on a set of key regions suggest that divergence within Petaluridae is largely correlated with continental drift, the exposure of land bridges, and the development of mountain ranges. Our results support the hypothesis that species within Petaluridae have persisted for tens of millions of years, with little fossil evidence to suggest widespread extinction in the family, despite optimal conditions for the fossilization of nymphs. Petaluridae appear to be a rare example of habitat specialists that have persisted for tens of millions of years.

Ad fontes: divergence-time estimation and the age of angiosperms.

Accurate divergence times are essential for interpreting and understanding the context in which lineages have evolved. Over the past several decades, debates have surrounded the discrepancies between the inferred molecular ages of crown angiosperms, often estimated from the Late Jurassic into the Permian, and the fossil record, placing angiosperms in the Early Cretaceous. That crown angiosperms could have emerged as early as the Permian or even the Triassic would have major implications for the paleoecological context of the origin of one of the most consequential clades in the tree of life. Here, we argue, and demonstrate through simulations, that the older ages inferred from molecular data and relaxed-clock models are misled by lineage-specific rate heterogeneity resulting from life history changes that occurred several times throughout the evolution of vascular plants. To overcome persistent discrepancies in age estimates, more biologically informed and realistic models should be developed, and our results should be considered in the context of their biological implications before we accept inferences that are a major departure from our strongest evidence.

Plastid phylogenomics clarifies broad-level relationships in Bulbophyllum (Orchidaceae) and provides insights into range evolution of Australasian section Adelopetalum

The hyperdiverse orchid genus Bulbophyllum is the second largest genus of flowering plants and exhibits a pantropical distribution with a center of diversity in tropical Asia. The only Bulbophyllum section with a center of diversity in Australasia is sect. Adelopetalum. However, the phylogenetic placement, interspecific relationships, and spatio-temporal evolution of this section remain largely unclear. To infer broad-level relationships within Bulbophyllum, and interspecific relationships within sect. Adelopetalum, a genome skimming dataset was generated for 89 samples, which yielded 70 plastid coding regions and a nuclear ribosomal DNA cistron. For 18 additional samples, Sanger data from two plastid loci (matK and ycf1) and nuclear ITS were added using a supermatrix approach. The study provided new insights into broad-level relationships in Bulbophyllum, including phylogenetic evidence for the non-monophyly of sections Beccariana, Brachyantha, Brachypus, Cirrhopetaloides, Cirrhopetalum, Desmosanthes, Minutissima, Oxysepala, Polymeres, and Sestochilos. Section Adelopetalum and sect. Minutissima s.s. formed a highly supported clade that was resolved as a sister group to the remainder of the genus. Divergence time estimations based on a relaxed molecular clock model placed the origin of Bulbophyllum in the Early Oligocene (ca. 33.2 Ma) and sect. Adelopetalum in the Late Oligocene (ca. 23.6 Ma). Ancestral range estimations based on a BAYAREALIKE model identified the Australian continent as the ancestral area of the sect. Adelopetalum. The section underwent crown diversification from the mid-Miocene to the late Pleistocene, predominantly in continental Australia. At least two independent long-distance dispersal events were inferred eastward from the Australian continent to New Zealand and to New Caledonia from the early Pliocene onwards, likely mediated by predominantly westerly winds of the Southern hemisphere. Retraction and fragmentation of the eastern Australian rainforests from the early Miocene onwards are likely drivers of lineage divergence within sect. Adelopetalum facilitating allopatric speciation.

Sequential Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference.

The ideal approach to Bayesian phylogenetic inference is to estimate all parameters of interest jointly in a single hierarchical model. However, this is often not feasible in practice due to the high computational cost. Instead, phylogenetic pipelines generally consist of sequential analyses, whereby a single point estimate from a given analysis is used as input for the next analysis (e.g., a single multiple sequence alignment is used to estimate a gene tree). In this framework, uncertainty is not propagated from step to step, which can lead to inaccurate or spuriously confident results. Here, we formally develop and test a sequential inference approach for Bayesian phylogenetic inference, which uses importance sampling to generate observations for the next step of an analysis pipeline from the posterior distribution produced in the previous step. Our sequential inference approach presented here not only accounts for uncertainty between analysis steps, but also allows for greater flexibility in software choice (and hence model availability) and can be computationally more efficient than the traditional joint inference approach when multiple models are being tested. We show that our sequential inference approach is identical in practice to the joint inference approach only if sufficient information in the data is present (a narrow posterior distribution) and/or sufficiently many importance samples are used. Conversely, we show that the common practice of using a single point estimate can be biased, e.g., a single phylogeny estimate to transform an unrooted phylogeny into a time-calibrated phylogeny. We demonstrate the theory of sequential Bayesian inference using both a toy example and an empirical case study of divergence-time estimation in insects using a relaxed clock model from transcriptome data. In the empirical example, we estimate three posterior distributions of branch lengths from the same data (DNA character matrix with a GTR+Γ+I substitution model, an amino acid data matrix with empirical substitution models, and an amino acid data matrix with the PhyloBayes CAT-GTR model). Finally, we apply three different node-calibration strategies and show that divergence-time estimates are affected by both the data source and underlying substitution process to estimate branch lengths as well as the node-calibration strategies. Thus, our new sequential Bayesian phylogenetic inference provides the opportunity to efficiently test different approaches for divergence time estimation, including branch-length estimation from other software.

Cicada minimum age tree: Cryptic speciation and exponentially increasing base substitution rates in recent geologic time

We developed a new time-calibrated tree incorporating primarily endemic along with some cryptic Ryukyu islands cicada data, following the recent publication of global cicada data by Marshall et al. (2018), Łukasik et al. (2018), Simon et al. (2019), Price et al. (2019), and Hill et al. (2021). A total of 352 specimens were analyzed using BEAST v1. X software with a relaxed clock model. Fossil calibrations as old as Triassic were adopted largely following Johnson et al. (2018) and Moulds (2018), and a Quaternary geological event calibration was adopted following Osozawa et al. (2012, 2021b) and input into BEAST v1. X. Our timetree suggests that Tettigarctidae had a cicada basal lineage as old as 200.63 Ma, with Derotettiginae the next oldest lineage at 99.2 Ma. Tibicininae is a sister of the remaining subfamilies of Tettigomyiinae, Cicadettinae, and Cicadidae, and their species level differentiation and radiation began at 40.57 Ma. The Cicadinae clade consists of specific tribes with paraphyletic relationship, and the vicariance and adaptive radiation generated many cryptic species in each tribe. We estimated base substitution rate as a function of age, and the result strongly indicates an exponential increase of base substitution rate in recent geologic time. The consequent increase in cicada biodiversity, including generation of cryptic species in the Ryukyu Islands and surroundings, may have been driven by the generation and spreading of C4 grasses and coeval Quaternary climate change.

Phylodynamic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus evolution in Mar Chiquita, Argentina.

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, resulting in considerable economic losses. Its causal agent is foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a picornavirus. Due to its error-prone replication and rapid evolution, the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of FMDV can be studied using genomic epidemiological approaches. To analyze FMDV evolution and identify possible transmission routes in an Argentinean region, field samples that tested positive for FMDV by PCR were obtained from 21 farms located in the Mar Chiquita district. Whole FMDV genome sequences were obtained by PCR amplification in seven fragments and sequencing using the Sanger technique. The genome sequences obtained from these samples were then analyzed using phylogenetic, phylogeographic, and evolutionary approaches. Three local transmission clusters were detected among the sampled viruses. The dataset was analyzed using Bayesian phylodynamic methods with appropriate coalescent and relaxed molecular clock models. The estimated mean viral evolutionary rate was 1.17 × 10- 2 substitutions/site/year. No significant differences in the rate of viral evolution were observed between farms with vaccinated animals and those with unvaccinated animals. The most recent common ancestor of the sampled sequences was dated to approximately one month before the first reported case in the outbreak. Virus transmission started in the south of the district and later dispersed to the west, and finally arrived in the east. Different transmission routes among the studied herds, such as non-replicating vectors and close contact contagion (i.e., aerosols), may be responsible for viral spread.

Phylogenomic analysis of Stylops reveals the evolutionary history of a Holarctic Strepsiptera radiation parasitizing wild bees

Holarctic Stylops is the largest genus of the enigmatic insect order Strepsiptera, twisted winged parasites. Members of Stylops are obligate endoparasites of Andrena mining bees and exhibit extreme sexual dimorphism typical of Strepsiptera. So far, molecular studies on Stylops have focused on questions on species delimitation. Here, we utilize the power of whole genome sequencing to infer the phylogeny of this morphologically challenging genus from thousands of loci. We use a species tree method, concatenated maximum likelihood analysis and Bayesian analysis with a relaxed clock model to reconstruct the phylogeny of 46 Stylops species, estimate divergence times, evaluate topological consistency across methods and infer the root position. Furthermore, the biogeographical history and coevolutionary patterns with host species are assessed. All methods recovered a well resolved topology with close to all nodes maximally supported and only a handful of minor topological variations. Based on the result, we find that included species can be divided into 12 species groups, seven of them including only Palaearctic species, three Nearctic and two were geographically mixed. We find a strongly supported root position between a clade formed by the spreta, thwaitesi and gwynanae species groups and the remaining species and that the sister group of Stylops is Eurystylops or Eurystylops + Kinzelbachus. Our results indicate that Stylops originated in the Western Palaearctic or Western Palaearctic and Nearctic in the early Neogene or late Paleogene, with four independent dispersal events to the Nearctic. Cophylogenetic analyses indicate that the diversification of Stylops has been shaped by both significant coevolution with the mining bee hosts and host-shifting. The well resolved and strongly supported phylogeny will provide a valuable phylogenetic basis for further studies into the fascinating world of Strepsipterans.

ShinyTempSignal: an R shiny application for exploring temporal and other phylogenetic signals

The molecular clock model is fundamental for inferring species divergence times from molecular sequences. However, its direct application may introduce significant biases due to sequencing errors, recombination events, and inaccurately labeled sampling times. Improving accuracy necessitates rigorous quality control measures to identify and remove potentially erroneous sequences. Furthermore, while not all branches of a phylogenetic tree may exhibit a clear temporal signal, specific branches may still adhere to the assumptions, with varying evolutionary rates. Supporting a relaxed molecular clock model better aligns with the complexities of evolution. The root-to-tip regression method has been widely used to analyze the temporal signal in phylogenetic studies and can be generalized for detecting other phylogenetic signals. Despite its utility, there remains a lack of corresponding software implementations for broader applications. To address this gap, we present shinyTempSignal, an interactive web application implemented with the shiny framework, available as an R package and publicly accessible at https://github.com/YuLab-SMU/shinyTempSignal. This tool facilitates the analysis of temporal and other phylogenetic signals under both strict and relaxed models. By extending the root-to-tip regression method to diverse signals, shinyTempSignal helps in the detection of evolving features or traits, thereby laying the foundation for deeper insights and subsequent analyses.

Dating in the Dark: Elevated Substitution Rates in Cave Cockroaches (Blattodea: Nocticolidae) Have Negative Impacts on Molecular Date Estimates.

Rates of nucleotide substitution vary substantially across the Tree of Life, with potentially confounding effects on phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses. A large acceleration in mitochondrial substitution rate occurs in the cockroach family Nocticolidae, which predominantly inhabit subterranean environments. To evaluate the impacts of this among-lineage rate heterogeneity on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales, we analyzed nuclear ultraconserved elements (UCEs) and mitochondrial genomes from nocticolids and other cockroaches. Substitution rates were substantially elevated in nocticolid lineages compared with other cockroaches, especially in mitochondrial protein-coding genes. This disparity in evolutionary rates is likely to have led to different evolutionary relationships being supported by phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial genomes and UCE loci. Furthermore, Bayesian dating analyses using relaxed-clock models inferred much deeper divergence times compared with a flexible local clock. Our phylogenetic analysis of UCEs, which is the first genome-scale study to include all 13 major cockroach families, unites Corydiidae and Nocticolidae and places Anaplectidae as the sister lineage to the rest of Blattoidea. We uncover an extraordinary level of genetic divergence in Nocticolidae, including two highly distinct clades that separated ~115 million years ago despite both containing representatives of the genus Nocticola. The results of our study highlight the potential impacts of high among-lineage rate variation on estimates of phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescales.

Cicada minimum age tree: Cryptic speciation and exponentially increasing base substitution rates in recent geologic time

We developed a new time-calibrated tree incorporating primarily endemic along with some cryptic Ryukyu islands cicada data, following the recent publication of global cicada data by Marshall et al. (2018), Łukasik et al. (2018), Simon et al. (2019), Price et al. (2019), and Hill et al. (2021). A total of 352 specimens were analyzed using BEAST v1. X software with a relaxed clock model. Fossil calibrations as old as Triassic were adopted largely following Johnson et al. (2018) and Moulds (2018), and a Quaternary geological event calibration was adopted following Osozawa et al. (2012, 2021b) and input into BEAST v1. X. Our timetree suggests that Tettigarctidae had a cicada basal lineage as old as 200.63 Ma, with Derotettiginae the next oldest lineage at 99.2 Ma. Tibicininae is a sister of the remaining subfamilies of Tettigomyiinae, Cicadettinae, and Cicadidae, and their species level differentiation and radiation began at 40.57 Ma. The Cicadinae clade consists of specific tribes with parapheletic relationship, and the vicariance and adaptive radiation generated many cryptic species in each tribe. We estimated base substitution rate as a function of age, and the result strongly indicates an exponential increase of base substitution rate in recent geologic time. The consequent increase in cicada biodiversity, including generation of cryptic species in the Ryukyu Islands and surroundings, may have been driven by the generation and spreading of C4 grasses and coeval Quaternary climate change.

Evolutionary relationships of mitogenomes in a recently radiated Old World avian family

Environmentally heterogeneous mountains provide opportunities for rapid diversification and speciation. The family Prunellidae (accentors) is a group of birds comprising primarily mountain specialists that have recently radiated across the Palearctic region. This rapid diversification poses challenges to resolving their phylogeny. Herein we sequenced the complete mitogenomes and estimated the phylogeny using all 12 (including 28 individuals) currently recognized species of Prunellidae. We reconstructed the mitochondrial genome phylogeny using 13 protein-coding genes of 12 species and 2 Eurasian Tree Sparrows (Passer montanus). Phylogenetic relationships were estimated using a suite of analyses: maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and the coalescent-based SVDquartets. Divergence times were estimated by implementing a Bayesian relaxed clock model in BEAST2. Based on the BEAST time-calibrated tree, we implemented an ancestral area reconstruction using RASP v.4.3. Our phylogenies based on the maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and SVDquartets approaches support a clade of large-sized accentors (subgenus Laiscopus) to be sister to all other accentors with small size (subgenus Prunella). In addition, the trees also support the sister relationship of P. immaculata and P. rubeculoides ​+ ​P.atrogularis with 100% bootstrap support, but the relationships among the remaining eight species in the Prunella clade are poorly resolved. These species cluster in different positions in the three phylogenetic trees and the nodes are often poorly supported. The five nodes separating the seven species diverged simultaneously within less than half million years (i.e., between 2.71 and 3.15 million years ago), suggesting that the recent radiation is likely responsible for rampant incomplete lineage sorting and gene tree conflicts. Ancestral area reconstruction indicates a central Palearctic region origin for Prunellidae. Our study highlights that whole mitochondrial genome phylogeny can resolve major lineages within Prunellidae but is not sufficient to fully resolve the relationship among the species in the Prunella clade that almost simultaneously diversify during a short time period. Our results emphasize the challenge to reconstruct reliable phylogenetic relationship in a group of recently radiated species.

Phylogeography of hepatitis B virus: The role of Portugal in the early dissemination of HBV worldwide.

In Portugal, the genetic diversity, origin of HBV and the Portuguese role in the dissemination of HBV worldwide were never investigated. In this work, we studied the epidemic history and transmission dynamics of HBV genotypes that are endemic in Portugal. HBV pol gene was sequenced from 130 patients followed in Lisbon. HBV genotype A was the most prevalent (n = 54, 41.5%), followed by D (n = 44, 33.8%), and E (n = 32, 24.6%). Spatio-temporal evolutionary dynamics was reconstructed in BEAST using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, with a GTR nucleotide substitution model, an uncorrelated lognormal relaxed molecular clock model, a Bayesian skyline plot, and a continuous diffusion model. HBV subgenotype D4 was the first to be introduced in Portugal around 1857 (HPD 95% 1699-1931) followed by D3 and A2 a few decades later. HBV genotype E and subgenotype A1 were introduced in Portugal later, almost simultaneously. Our results indicate a very important role of Portugal in the exportation of subgenotypes D4 and A2 to Brazil and Cape Verde, respectively, in the beginning of the XX century. This work clarifies the epidemiological history of HBV in Portugal and provides new insights in the early and global epidemic history of this virus.

Confidence intervals in molecular dating by maximum likelihood

Molecular dating has been widely used to infer the times of past evolutionary events using molecular sequences. This paper describes three bootstrap methods to infer confidence intervals under a penalized likelihood framework. The basic idea is to use data pseudoreplicates to infer uncertainty in the branch lengths of a phylogeny reconstructed with molecular sequences. The three specific bootstrap methods are nonparametric (direct tree bootstrapping), semiparametric (rate smoothing), and parametric (Poisson simulation). Our extensive simulation study showed that the three methods perform generally well under a simple strict clock model of molecular evolution; however, the results were less positive with data simulated using an uncorrelated or a correlated relaxed clock model. Several factors impacted, possibly in interaction, the performance of the confidence intervals. Increasing the number of calibration points had a positive effect, as well as increasing the sequence length or the number of sequences although both latter effects depended on the model of evolution. A case study is presented with a molecular phylogeny of the Felidae (Mammalia: Carnivora). A comparison was made with a Bayesian analysis: the results were very close in terms of confidence intervals and there was no marked tendency for an approach to produce younger or older bounds compared to the other.

Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference using Relaxed-clocks and the Multispecies Coalescent.

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model accommodates both species divergences and within-species coalescent and provides a natural framework for phylogenetic analysis of genomic data when the gene trees vary across the genome. The MSC model implemented in the program bpp assumes a molecular clock and the Jukes–Cantor model, and is suitable for analyzing genomic data from closely related species. Here we extend our implementation to more general substitution models and relaxed clocks to allow the rate to vary among species. The MSC-with-relaxed-clock model allows the estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using genomic sequences sampled from contemporary species when the strict clock assumption is violated, and provides a simulation framework for evaluating species tree estimation methods. We conducted simulations and analyzed two real datasets to evaluate the utility of the new models. We confirm that the clock-JC model is adequate for inference of shallow trees with closely related species, but it is important to account for clock violation for distant species. Our simulation suggests that there is valuable phylogenetic information in the gene-tree branch lengths even if the molecular clock assumption is seriously violated, and the relaxed-clock models implemented in bpp are able to extract such information. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms suffer from mixing problems when used for species tree estimation under the relaxed clock and we discuss possible improvements. We conclude that the new models are currently most effective for estimating population parameters such as species divergence times when the species tree is fixed.

Quantitatively defining species boundaries with more efficiency and more biological realism

We introduce a widely applicable species delimitation method based on the multispecies coalescent model that is more efficient and more biologically realistic than existing methods. We extend a threshold-based method to allow the ancestral speciation rate to vary through time as a smooth piecewise function. Furthermore, we introduce the cutting-edge proposal kernels of StarBeast3 to this model, thus enabling rapid species delimitation on large molecular datasets and allowing the use of relaxed molecular clock models. We validate these methods with genomic sequence data and SNP data, and show they are more efficient than existing methods at achieving parameter convergence during Bayesian MCMC. Lastly, we apply these methods to two datasets (Hemidactylus and Galagidae) and find inconsistencies with the published literature. Our methods are powerful for rapid quantitative testing of species boundaries in large multilocus datasets and are implemented as an open source BEAST 2 package called SPEEDEMON.

Cicada minimum age tree: Cryptic speciation and exponentially increasing base substitution rates in recent geologic time

We developed a new time-calibrated tree incorporating primarily endemic along with some cryptic Ryukyu islands cicada data, following the recent publication of global cicada data by Marshall et al. (2018), Łukasik et al. (2018), Simon et al. (2019), Price et al. (2019), and Hill et al. (2021). A total of 352 specimens were analyzed using BEAST v1. X software with a relaxed clock model. Fossil calibrations as old as Triassic were adopted largely following Johnson et al. (2018) and Moulds (2018), and a Quaternary geological event calibration was adopted following Osozawa et al. (2012, 2021b) and input into BEAST v1. X. Our timetree suggests that Tettigarctidae had a cicada basal lineage as old as 200.63 Ma, with Derotettiginae the next oldest lineage at 99.2 Ma. Tibicininae is a sister of the remaining subfamilies of Tettigomyiinae, Cicadettinae, and Cicadidae, and their species level differentiation and radiation began at 40.57 Ma. The Cicadinae clade consists of specific tribes with parapheletic relationship, and the vicariance and adaptive radiation generated many cryptic species in each tribe. We estimated base substitution rate as a function of age, and the result strongly indicates an exponential increase of base substitution rate in recent geologic time. The consequent increase in cicada biodiversity, including generation of cryptic species in the Ryukyu Islands and surroundings, may have been driven by the generation and spreading of C4 grasses and coeval Quaternary climate change.

Site pattern probabilities under the multispecies coalescent and a relaxed molecular clock: Theory and applications

The first step in statistical inference of the evolutionary histories of species is developing a probability model that describes the mutation process as accurately and realistically as possible. A major complication of this inference is that different loci on the genome can have histories that diverge from the common species history and each other. The multispecies coalescent process is commonly used to model one source of this divergence, incomplete lineage sorting, or ILS. In Chifman and Kubatko (2015), the authors computed the site pattern probabilities for four taxa under a full probability model based on the Jukes-Cantor substitution model when the molecular clock holds. This paper generalizes that work to a relaxed clock model, allowing for mutation rates to differ among species. This will enable better phylogentic inference in cases where the molecular clock does not hold.

StarBeast3: Adaptive Parallelized Bayesian Inference under the Multispecies Coalescent.

As genomic sequence data become increasingly available, inferring the phylogeny of the species as that of concatenated genomic data can be enticing. However, this approach makes for a biased estimator of branch lengths and substitution rates and an inconsistent estimator of tree topology. Bayesian multispecies coalescent (MSC) methods address these issues. This is achieved by constraining a set of gene trees within a species tree and jointly inferring both under a Bayesian framework. However, this approach comes at the cost of increased computational demand. Here, we introduce StarBeast3—a software package for efficient Bayesian inference under the MSC model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We gain efficiency by introducing cutting-edge proposal kernels and adaptive operators, and StarBeast3 is particularly efficient when a relaxed clock model is applied. Furthermore, gene-tree inference is parallelized, allowing the software to scale with the size of the problem. We validated our software and benchmarked its performance using three real and two synthetic data sets. Our results indicate that StarBeast3 is up to one-and-a-half orders of magnitude faster than StarBeast2, and therefore more than two orders faster than *BEAST, depending on the data set and on the parameter, and can achieve convergence on large data sets with hundreds of genes. StarBeast3 is open-source and is easy to set up with a friendly graphical user interface. [Adaptive; Bayesian inference; BEAST 2; effective population sizes; high performance; multispecies coalescent; parallelization; phylogenetics.]