ABSTRACT Wheat is a very vital cereal crop in the development of a nation’s economy and agricultural sector. A crucial element that profoundly affects the growth and productivity of wheat is the soil temperature. As an insulating layer, straw mulch controls the soil temperature. Field measurement of the soil temperature is time-consuming and costly; therefore, the present study investigates the applicability of random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models for estimating soil temperature in wheat fields covered with straw mulch using meteorological, soil cover and agronomical parameters. A field study was conducted on the wheat cultivar with two soil cover treatments for measuring the soil temperature at three depths (5, 50 and 80 cm). Soil plant analysis development value; soil cover and depth; daily meteorological data such as average air temperature, average relative humidity, sunshine hours and vapor pressure were used as inputs for machine learning models in training and testing. Statistical performance indicators showed applicability of three models with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.245–0.595°C, 0.867–0.886°C and 0.557–0.812°C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging from 0.917–0.987, 0.823–0.836 and 0.804–0.935 and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) ranging from 0.949–0.991, 0.887–0.897 and 0.881–0.957 for the RF, SVM and GRNN, respectively. Results indicated better performance of the RF model for predicting the soil temperature at different depths in the case of both crop and soil cover conditions. Also, the uncertainty analysis indicated the better performance of RF with R-factor and P-factor value of 0.40 and 0.84, respectively.