Relative Unemployment Research Articles

Immigrant Threat or Institutional Context? Examining Police Agency and County Context and the Implementation of the 287(g) Program

ABSTRACT During the early 2000s, the U.S. government began to partner with local law enforcement agencies for assistance with the enforcement of immigration laws. Participation in the voluntary 287(g) program by law enforcement agencies was an important early iteration of this new strategy. Although relatively few agencies adopted 287(g), its implementation was a critical turning point in the nation’s approach to immigration enforcement and has been linked to a wide range of negative consequences for Latinos, including higher levels of violent victimization, and decreases in police trust. This study advances knowledge about the factors associated with 287(g) program adoption during the late 2000s. We examined the role of agency ethnoracial diversity and fiscal capacity and several theoretically relevant indicators of the broader county context. Based on a sample of 880 law enforcement agencies located in 233 counties, rare event logistic regression models indicate that the strongest predictors of 287(g) adoption were the share of county population estimated to be undocumented immigrants, the degree of support for the Republican Presidential candidate, and the relative unemployment of Hispanic and non-Hispanic White residents. Overall, the results suggest that 287(g) was primarily a political response to concerns about the potential threats associated with undocumented immigration.

Monetary Policy and the Gender and Racial Employment Dynamics in Brazil

ABSTRACT Monetary policy has been historically concerned with controlling inflation, using the interest rate as its main tool. However, such policies are not gender- or race-neutral. This paper explores econometrically the effect of changes in the interest rate for female and black employment creation in Brazil. We conducted a fixed effects analysis for 13 states between 2012 and 2021 to estimate the effects of changes in interest rates on unemployment, separating it by gender and race. Our results show that the increase in the real interest rate has a positive effect on the relative unemployment of black men to white men, no effect on the relative unemployment of black women to white men, and a negative effect on the relative unemployment of white women to white men. These effects are intensified in regions where the black share of the population is lower. This paper contributes to understanding the challenges to closing gender and racial gaps, particularly in developing economies. We conclude that social stratification, if not considered, can lead to misleading policies that perpetuate unequal socioeconomic outcomes.

Changes in unemployment and permanent sickness in England’s East Midlands coalfields, 1971–2011

ABSTRACT The UK coal industry was an important part of the economy, but it experienced substantial job losses during the 1980s and 1990s. To alleviate the resulting socio-economic problems, many areas received regeneration funds. We examine to what extent relative unemployment and permanent sickness and disability in the coalfields of the East Midlands changed between 1971 and 2011. Over this period rates of permanent sickness and disability have increased, and the gap widened between coalfields and non-coalfields. In contrast, unemployment has decreased at a faster rate in the coalfields. However, both outcomes are better in those coalfields that were less dependent on mining.

Empirical modeling of internal migration and commuting flows for economic regions in Norway

This article provides empirical results for internal migration and commuting flows using panel data for 89 economic regions in Norway for the years 2001–2014. The emphasis is on the potential effects of different incentive variables. We consider both in- and out-migration as well as in- and out-commuting with a common set of explanatory variables. We perform panel data analysis for four educational groups using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models, acknowledging that the effects of the incentive variables may vary across educational groups. Generally, we find weak responses to the incentive variables for the eight response variables, but they differ somewhat across the educational groups. The group comprised of those with a low education appears to be most responsive. An increase in an economic region’s relative wage rate leads to higher in-migration and lower out-migration for individuals with low education. Furthermore, an increase in an economic region’s relative unemployment rate leads to lower in-migration whereas out-migration is left unaffected for individuals with this type of education. Besides, an increase in the relative unemployment rate leads to a significant reduction in in-commuting for this group.

International trade, intellectual property rights and the (un)employment of migrants

AbstractWe study the effect of trade liberalisation and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on the unemployment rate of migrants relative to nonmigrants. We build a North–South trade and growth model with a positive steady state rate of migration. We find that bilateral trade liberalisation decreases the relative unemployment rate of migrants when migration is low and increases the relative unemployment rate when the migration rate is high. The results do not rely on assumptions about network effects, the probability to find a job for a migrant is independent of the relative size of the migrant diaspora. IPR protection leads to a higher relative unemployment rate of migrants regardless of the size of migration. We provide suggestive empirical evidence in line with the theoretical predictions on trade liberalisation and IPR protection using data for 20 OECD countries over the period 2000–2014.

Push or Pull: What Drives Emigration from Lithuania?

This article investigates the main economic and non-economic determinants of population emigration from Lithuania. Our study offers a new approach for modelling the push and pull factors considering the push–pull link. We construct the relative variables and deploy mixed models for the macro data of Lithuania and 24 European destinations over 2010–2019. Our findings reveal that such economic variables as relative economic welfare, unemployment and income inequality are the key push–pull factors. The study results indicate that changes in relative welfare have the highest power to change Lithuanian emigration with the main impact recorded the same year, while changes in relative income inequality and unemployment affect fewer emigrants, and it takes one year for the effect to materialise. The obtained higher importance of relative welfare compared to the average wage suggests that the goods and services provided by the state play a role in the personal cost–benefit calculation of prospective emigrants. This study addresses the research gap on the quantitative push–pull factor evaluation, the timing of their impact, connectivity of the push–pull factors and structural changes, providing a foundation for future research on the root causes of emigration.

Relative Unemployment, Political Information, and the Job Approval Ratings of State Governors and Legislatures

AbstractResearch finds that voters benchmark the state's unemployment level to the nation's when holding state policy makers accountable. Yet benchmarking requires some voter knowledge if the standard is to be applied correctly as an accountability rule. This article leverages the fact that voters have more knowledge about their state governors than legislatures assess how much knowledge is necessary for holding these policy makers accountable. Using pooled Cooperative Congressional Election Study data from 2006 to 2016, results find that knowledge has stronger mediating effects for the state legislature than governor. Furthermore, despite the low knowledge levels among voters about the state legislature, collectively there appears to be enough knowledge to hold that policymaking body accountable. The conclusion offers directions for future research.

Macroeconomic Crisis and the Gender Gap in Mental Health: Evidence from the 2009 Great Recession

This paper uses a detailed country-level dataset to study how the 2009 Great Recession differently affected gender-specific mental health and the gender gap in mental health in the USA. The country’s mental health is measured in terms of the population share suffering from mental health and substance use disorders, where higher numbers denote worse mental health outcomes. The results suggest that overall mental health in the USA worsened due to post-recession increase in economic distress. Despite the evidence that the recession increased the relative unemployment of American males, I find inconclusive evidence of the recession’s impact on male mental health. In contrast, female mental health observed worsening post-2009 Great Recession, culminating in the substantial widening of the already high gender gap in mental health in the USA. The estimates indicate that female mental health worsened by around 3.1% of the pre-treatment mean, whereas the gender gap in mental health widened by the 14.8% of the pre-treatment mean. By referring to existing research, I underline non-economic channels (increased household-level stress, worsened relationship quality, increased domestic violence) that help explain how the crisis-induced economic distress translated into the widened gender gap in mental health.

Characterising Graduate Unemployment in Nigeria as Education-job Mismatch Problem

The study investigates education-job mismatch in the graduate segment of the nation’s labour market, which has had to contend with increasing graduate unemployment in an environment that is inundated with frequent adverts for vacancies across graduate disciplines. Variance of relative unemployment and proportional index of unemployed and employed are used to explain the mismatch from 2012 to 2016. Mismatch is found to be low but increasing in the entire labour market. Aggregate unemployment rate was structurally dependent on unemployment rates among those without education and those who had secondary education while the rate was cyclically affected by unemployment rates in the ranks of those who had post-secondary education (graduates) and those who underwent less than primary education. The results of the proportional index analysis show that the graduates of Medical Sciences, Social Sciences/Business Studies and Engineering would not experience unemployment, while graduates with specialisations in Education, Law, Arts and Sciences were most likely to be unemployed in the Nigerian labour market. A number of reasons are offered to explain the plausibility of these results, while some solutions are put forward to address unemployment among graduates of the latter set of disciplines.

Crisis at home: mancession-induced change in intrahousehold distribution

The Great Recessions was essentially a 'mancession' in countries like Spain, the UK or the US, i.e. it hit men harder than women for they were disproportionately represented in heavily affected sectors. We investigate how the mancession, and more generally women's relative opportunities on the labor market, translate into within-household redistribution. Precisely, we estimate the spouses' resource shares in a collective model of consumption, using Spanish data over 2006-2011. We exploit the gender-oriented evolution of the economic environment to test two original distribution factors: first the regional-time variation in spouses' relative unemployment risks, then the gender-differentiated shock in the construction sector (having a construction sector husband after the outburst of the crisis). Both approaches conclude that the resource share accruing to Spanish wives increased by around 7-9 percent on average, following the improvement of their relative labor market positions. Among childless couples, we document a 5-11 percent decline in individual consumption inequality following the crisis, which is essentially due to intrahousehold redistribution.

Economic determinants of intervoivodship migration

The aim of the research is to indicate the influence of economic determinants of interregional migration flows in Poland in the years 1999—2015. The analysis was conducted on the basis of data from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland using descriptive methods of migration flows differentiation analysis, wages and unemployment rates in time and space and spatial econometrics methods: the least squares method (LSM), generalised method of moments (GMM), logistic models and fixed effects models. The conclusions of the research are as follows: migration inflows are most strongly influenced by relative wages, and outflows by the relative unemployment rate. Moreover, migrants decide to change their place of residence, taking into account a spatial factor.

Quality of youth employment in Russia: analysis of job satisfaction assessments

The objective of the paper is to reveal regularities and specific features of the quality of employment among young Russian workers. The author analyses the patterns of individual-specific job satisfaction assessments. The empirical basis of the study is the data of the 22d wave of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) which corresponds to the period of relative economic stability (late 2013-early 2014).To reveal the youth employment specifics the average job satisfaction scores in different age groups were calculated; a comparative study of their distributions based on a number of criteria was carried out. Multiple correlation analysis was used to define factors of job satisfaction. The novelty of the paper lies in the object of analysis, namely the youth employment quality given the lack of homogeneity in job satisfaction assessments. The U-shaped relationship was found between job satisfaction and age.Among youth groups, a group of 15—19 year olds differs both by the highest job satisfaction levels and a bigger share of those who are not satisfied with the wages and opportunities for professional growth. The study reveals that this is the only group where the share of persons who are satisfied with the job increases in times of crisis. New determinants of job satisfaction describing the regional labor market (relative unemployment rates and wage inequality) were introduced.The findings can be used for further research of the employment quality and show that the Russian youth employment quality should be put on the agenda. The author suggests that the assessments of job satisfaction levels should be included in the official system of employment quality indicators.

Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform

China’s large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the late 1990s provides a natural experiment for estimating precautionary savings. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed similar job security as government employees. The reform caused massive SOE layoffs, but government employees kept their “iron rice bowl.” The changes in the relative unemployment risks for SOE workers provide a clean identification of income uncertainty. With self-selection biases mitigated by focusing on government assigned jobs, precautionary savings account for about 40 percent of SOE households’ wealth accumulation. Moreover, demographic groups more vulnerable to the reform also accumulated more precautionary wealth.

Labour-market institutions, (un)employment, wages, and growth: theory and data

ABSTRACTWe analyse the implications of labour-market institutions on wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, on relative unemployment of unskilled labour, and on the economic growth rate in two clusters resulting from 27 OECD countries: Cluster 1, closely related with the Anglo-Saxon model, and Cluster 2, dominated by the Continental-European model. By linking the unskilled wage to the skilled one in Cluster 2, due to the indexation of social benefits to per-capita income, we accommodate the observed paths of the three variables in both clusters between 1991 and 2008: Cluster 1 presents a higher wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, a lower unemployment of the unskilled labour, and a better economic growth rate.

Changes in the Situation of Different Demographic Groups in the Lithuanian Labour Market and the Influence of Methodical Differences on Relative Unemployment Indicators

The paper analyses employment, activity and unemployment trends in Lithuania by sex and age, with thefocus on the monitoring of the labour market situation of different demographic groups. The possibilities of integratingwomen and men, elderly and young people into the labour market are evaluated using key labour market indicators. Differentunemployment estimation methods are used for the assessment of changes in the labour market situation of differentdemographic groups in Lithuania. Statistical data analysis is supplemented by the results of individual research.

Examining the Effective Social and Economic Factors on Underground Economy

The expansion of underground economic activities is a reality in today's world and it plays a vital role in the economy and the lives of people in many countries. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of 8 variables (income level, education level of the individual, spouse's education, feeling of relative deprivation, unemployment, risk and severity of punishment, family background and the price gap between the formal and informal market) on the tendency of people to act in underground economy activities with a social and economic approach. Sistan and Baluchistan (eastern frontier province of Iran) is the case of this study with the sample size of 300 people. Logit model has been used to determine the people of two groups, which consist of people who act in underground activities and non engaged people. The results show that the unemployment and the feelings of relative deprivation in terms of social have a positive and significant effect on tendency of people to underground activities. But there are negative significant relationships between the level of individual spouse's education, the level of individual education, family background, income level and feeling of relative deprivation economically and the tendency of people to carry out activities in underground economy. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n3p525

Ivory-tower or market-oriented enterprise: the role of higher education institutions in shaping graduate employability in the domain of science

This article researches higher education (HE) managers’ perception of graduate professional success and higher education institutions’ (HEI) activity aimed at enhancing graduate employability. The issue is worth examining not only because of growing relative unemployment rates among HE graduates but also because it is a part of a heated discussion on the contemporary evolution of HEIs. We analysed 36 semi-structured interviews with representatives of HEIs offering studies in the field of science in six countries (Austria, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovenia and Turkey). Our analysis showed that there are three approaches observed, depending to a large extent on the balance between different HE stakeholders within subdomains (triple-helix theory). Our results support the hypothesis of diversification of HEIs’ models varying from the traditional ivory-tower-type university (with a dominating role of academic oligarchy) to the market-oriented educational enterprise (where the business sector is a key driver of change).

From Progress to Nightmare - European Regional Unemployment Over Time

We analyze the distribution of regional unemployment in Europe over the last three decades using non-parametric kernel densities and stochastic kernels. In addition, we employ a multi-level factor model to separate European, country, and region-specific unemployment fluctuations. Three phases of distributional change of EU relative unemployment rates are detected: they polarized from 1986 to 1996, converged after the introduction of the Euro and have been polarizing again since the outbreak of the financial crisis, having reached the highest levels ever. We find that European fluctuations account for roughly two fifths of the total variance confirming the existence of a European unemployment cycle. Country fluctuations are equally important, which leaves one fifth to be explained by region-specific movements. German regions are found to respond negatively to the European factor and country movements cause diverse responses in particular in Italy and England. The convergence prior to 2007 can be attributed to country affects and the divergence thereafter both to country and region-specific factors. Finally, we also discuss within country heterogeneity.

Housing markets and policy in the UK and the USA

Purpose – This paper aims to examine how the exogenous shock of the global financial crisis has had a differential impact on the housing markets of the USA and UK. Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by examining the nature and dynamics of the global financial crisis. It presents a detailed comparison of institutional and housing market characteristics in each country. A particular focus is the differences in mortgage funding and subprime lending trends over the decade leading up to the financial crisis. Findings – The analysis demonstrates the distinctiveness of the recent housing cycles and the geography of the downward price adjustments. Relative unemployment rates play a key role in these outcomes. Despite the different dynamics of the boom and bust, there is a common legacy in terms of the collapse of house building, repossessions/foreclosures and falling home ownership rates. The short-term policy responses by both governments addressed the same target issues in alternative ways but with different outcomes. Longer-term solutions are still being debated in both countries. Originality/value – Innovatory insights are provided by the comparison of the sub-national spatial pattern of the recent house price cycle in two countries.

SKILL-BIASED TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND BRAIN DRAIN

We develop a model of directed technology adoption, frictional unemployment, and migration to examine the effects of a change in skill endowments on the wages, employment rates, and emigration rates of skilled and unskilled workers. We find that, depending on the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers and the elasticity of the matching function, an increase in the skill ratio can reduce both the relative unemployment rate and the relative emigration rate (brain drain) of skilled workers. We provide numerical simulations to support our findings and show that the effects are empirically relevant and potentially sizable.