Relative Root Mean Square Error Values Research Articles

Hybrid modeling approaches for agricultural commodity prices using CEEMDAN and time delay neural networks

Improving the forecasting accuracy of agricultural commodity prices is critical for many stakeholders namely, farmers, traders, exporters, governments, and all other partners in the price channel, to evade risks and enable appropriate policy interventions. However, the traditional mono-scale smoothing techniques often fail to capture the non-stationary and non-linear features due to their multifarious structure. This study has proposed a CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)-TDNN (Time Delay Neural Network) model for forecasting non-linear, non-stationary agricultural price series. This study has evaluated its suitability in comparison with the other three major EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) variants (EMD, Ensemble EMD and Complementary Ensemble EMD) and the benchmark (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Non-linear Support Vector Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest and TDNN) models using monthly wholesale prices of major oilseed crops in India. Outcomes from this investigation reflect that the CEEMDAN-TDNN hybrid models have outperformed all other forecasting models on the basis of evaluation metrics under consideration. For the proposed model, an average improvement of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), Relative RMSE and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values has been observed to be 20.04%, 19.94% and 27.80%, respectively over the other EMD variant-based counterparts and 57.66%, 48.37% and 62.37%, respectively over the other benchmark stochastic and machine learning models. The CEEMD-TDNN and CEEMDAN-TDNN models have demonstrated superior performance in predicting the directional changes of monthly price series compared to other models. Additionally, the accuracy of forecasts generated by all models has been assessed using the Diebold-Mariano test, the Friedman test, and the Taylor diagram. The results confirm that the proposed hybrid model has outperformed the alternative models, providing a distinct advantage.

Improving airborne laser scanning-based species-specific forest volume estimation using sentinel-2 time series

ABSTRACT Species-specific timber volume estimates are required to support forest planning and conservation. We evaluated whether additional predictors from a Sentinel-2 time series can improve airborne laser scanning (ALS)-based estimation of species-specific timber volumes. Furthermore, we determined the satellite image dates that provided the greatest improvement in accuracy. The Sentinel-2 time series was constructed to cover 1 March–30 November time-period, with a focus on late spring and early summer. The estimation was done using the k Most Similar Neighbor method and predictors extracted from the ALS data and Sentinel-2 images. Our best model included both ALS and Sentinel-2 time-series predictors, and the relative root mean square error (RMSE) values for pine, spruce and deciduous timber volumes were 40.8%, 57.0% and 51.3%, respectively (mean 49.7%). All deciduous trees were treated as one species. When bands from an individual image were used instead of the time series, the best result was obtained with an image from September where the respective relative RMSE values were 42.2% (deciduous), 58.4% (pine) and 60.6% (spruce) with a mean value of 53.7%. A fusion of a Sentinel-2 time-series and ALS data can improve species-specific estimation results compared to the use of individual Sentinel-2 images or ALS only.

A Novel Point Cloud Adaptive Filtering Algorithm for LiDAR SLAM in Forest Environments Based on Guidance Information

To address the issue of accuracy in Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) for forested areas, a novel point cloud adaptive filtering algorithm is proposed in the paper, based on point cloud data obtained by backpack Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). The algorithm employs a K-D tree to construct the spatial position information of the 3D point cloud, deriving a linear model that is the guidance information based on both the original and filtered point cloud data. The parameters of the linear model are determined by minimizing the cost function using an optimization strategy, and a guidance point cloud filter is subsequently constructed based on these parameters. The results demonstrate that, comparing the diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height before and after filtering with the measured true values, the accuracy of SLAM mapping is significantly improved after filtering. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of DBH before and after filtering are 2.20 cm and 1.16 cm; the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are 4.78 cm and 1.40 cm; and the relative RMSE values are 29.30% and 8.59%. For tree height, the MAE before and after filtering are 0.76 m and 0.40 m; the RMSE values are 1.01 m and 0.50 m; the relative RMSE values are 7.33% and 3.65%. The experimental results validate that the proposed adaptive point cloud filtering method based on guided information is an effective point cloud preprocessing method for enhancing the accuracy of SLAM mapping in forested areas.

Integration of machine learning and remote sensing for above ground biomass estimation through Landsat-9 and field data in temperate forests of the Himalayan region

Accurately estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) in forest ecosystems facilitates efficient resource management, carbon accounting, and conservation efforts. This study examines the relationship between predictors from Landsat-9 remote sensing data and several topographical features. While Landsat-9 provides reliable data crucial for long-term monitoring, it is part of a broader suite of available remote sensing technologies. We employ machine learning algorithms such as Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF), alongside linear regression techniques like Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The primary objectives of this study encompass two key aspects. Firstly, the research methodically selects optimal predictor combinations from four distinct variable groups: Landsat-9 (L1) data, a fusion of Landsat-9 data and Vegetation-based indices (L2), and the integration of Landsat-9 data with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM DEM) (L3) and the combination of best predictors (L4) derived from L1, L2, and L3. Secondly, the research systematically assesses the effectiveness of different algorithms to identify the most precise method for establishing any potential relationship between field-measured AGB and predictor variables. Our study revealed that the Random Forest (RF) model was the most efficient method utilizing Landsat-9 OLI and SRTM DEM (L3) predictors, achieving remarkable accuracy. This conclusion was reached by assessing its outstanding performance when compared to an independent validation dataset. The RF model exhibited remarkable accuracy, presenting relative mean absolute error (RMAE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and R2 values of 14.33%, 22.23%, and 0.81, respectively. The XGBoost model is the subsequent choice with RMAE, RRMSE, and R2 values of 15.54%, 23.85%, and 0.77, respectively. The study further highlights the significance of specific spectral bands, notably B4 and B5 from Landsat 9 OLI data, in capturing spatial AGB distribution patterns. Integration of vegetation-based indices, including TNDVI, NDVI, RVI, and GNDVI, further refines AGB mapping precision. Elevation, slope, and the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) are crucial proxies for representing biophysical and biological mechanisms impacting AGB. Through the utilization of openly accessible fine-resolution data and employing the RF algorithm, the research demonstrated promising outcomes in the identification of optimal predictor-algorithm combinations for forest AGB mapping. This comprehensive approach offers a valuable avenue for informed decision-making in forest management, carbon assessment, and ecological monitoring initiatives.

Estimating wheat spike-leaf composite indicator (SLI) dynamics by coupling spectral indices and machine learning

The contribution of spike photosynthesis to grain yield (GY) has been overlooked in the accurate spectral prediction of yield. Thus, it’s essential to construct and estimate a yield-related phenotypic trait considering spike photosynthesis. Based on field and spectral reflectance data from 19 wheat cultivars under two nitrogen fertilization conditions in two years, our objectives were to (i) construct a yield-related phenotypic trait (spike–leaf composite indicator, SLI) accounting for the contribution of the spike to photosynthesis, (ii) develop a novel spectral index (enhanced triangle vegetation index, ETVI3) sensitive to SLI, and (iii) establish and evaluate SLI estimation models by integrating spectral indices and machine learning algorithms. The results showed that SLI was sensitive to nitrogen fertilizer and wheat cultivar variation as well as a better predictor of yield than the leaf area index. ETVI3 maintained a strong correlation with SLI throughout the growth stage, whereas the correlations of other spectral indices with SLI were poor after spike emergence. Integrating spectral indices and machine learning algorithms improved the estimation accuracy of SLI, with the most accurate estimates of SLI showing coefficient of determination, root mean square error (RMSE), and relative RMSE values of 0.71, 0.047, and 26.93%, respectively. These results provide new insights into the role of fruiting organs for the accurate spectral prediction of GY. This high-throughput SLI estimation approach can be applied for wheat yield prediction at whole growth stages and may be assisted with agronomical practices and variety selection.

Water Quality Modelling with Industrial and Domestic Point Source Pollution : a Study Case of Cikakembang River, Majalaya District

Rapid industrial development is one of the leading causes of environmental degradation. The textile industries and the domestic activities in Majalaya District produce wastewater directly discharged into the Cikakembang River. As a result, the Cikakembang River’s water quality has decreased to the point that the water quality cannot be used for daily needs. This study modeled three main parameters in water quality modelling, namely Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD). Using MATLAB, the three-water quality governing equations originating from the Advection-Dispersion Equation were solved using the Runge Kutte-4 discretization scheme. The numerical modelling was carried out along 2.36 km of the Cikakembang River. All water quality coefficients, such as the DO Saturation (DOsat), the Reaeration Rate (ka), the Dispersion Coefficient (D), the Deoxygenation Rate (kd), and the Decomposition Rate (kc), for the Cikakembang River were estimated using equations developed by existing studies. The estimation of ka and D coefficients requires hydraulic parameters, which in this study were estimated using the HEC-RAS simulation. Meanwhile, kd and kc values were obtained from the calibration and verification process. The Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) objective function was used to evaluate the results of water quality modelling at three sampling points. In the calibration process, the resultsof water quality modelling produced RRMSE values for the DO, BOD, and COD parameters of 1.99%, 0.36% and 0.92%, respectively. Meanwhile, for the verification process, the RRMSE values for the DO, BOD, and COD parameters are 1.95%, 1.02% and 1.86%. All water quality parameters produce small RRMSE values in the calibration and verification processes. Hence, the water quality model created has good accuracy and stability.

Weight estimation models for commercial Pinus radiata wood in small felling stands based on UAV-LiDAR data

Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanners have been adopted as an effective tool for conducting forest inventories, reducing field work and associated costs. These studies are based on obtaining information on volume, height and diameter at breast height (DBH). However, in the timber sector in Galicia (Spain)the variable used as the unit of purchase/sale is "weight". Therefore, this paper sets out to test different machine learning algorithms, such as multiple linear regression (MLR), MLR log-transformed (MRL-LT), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Forest (RF) to obtain a methodology applicable in the study area and replicable in other areas, with real utility in the forestry industry for determining the weight of Pinus radiata wood. These models are based on 73 observations and 19 predictors and have been developed and applied to a total of 33 Forest Cuts (FC) divided into 5204 tesserae. The models are validated by Fold Cross-Validation, with RMSE (relative root mean square error), R2 and MAE (mean absolute error) values being calculated. Of the four models studied, the PCA model performs best (R2=0.85, RMSE=1.84, MAE=1.46), followed by the MRL-LT which gives a value of R2=0.82 (RMSE=1.84, MAE=1.46). The actual figure for total Pinus radiata timber harvested was 35,440.54 t The PCA model estimated a total of 35,913.53 t (r = 0.98, R2=0.97, εr=9.35 %), while the MRL-LT model calculated 35,847.92 t (r = 0.99, R2=0.98, εr=8.85 %). On the other hand, the weight was underestimated by the MLR model and overestimated by the RF. The plain MLR model underestimated the "weight" of the wood, while the MRL-LT model provided the best result, with errors of less than 10 % in 72 % of the FCs. In conclusion, this study provides a powerful tool that will enable stakeholders in the community timber industry to accurately estimate the weight of timber in Pinus radiata stands, enhancing a more highly automated forest inventory that can optimise the number of field operations to be performed.

Retrieving 3D distributions of atmospheric particles using Atmospheric Tomography with 3D Radiative Transfer – Part 2: Local optimization

Abstract. Our global understanding of clouds and aerosols relies on the remote sensing of their optical, microphysical, and macrophysical properties using, in part, scattered solar radiation. Current retrievals assume clouds and aerosols form plane-parallel, homogeneous layers and utilize 1D radiative transfer (RT) models. These assumptions limit the detail that can be retrieved about the 3D variability in the cloud and aerosol fields and induce biases in the retrieved properties for highly heterogeneous structures such as cumulus clouds and smoke plumes. In Part 1 of this two-part study, we validated a tomographic method that utilizes multi-angle passive imagery to retrieve 3D distributions of species using 3D RT to overcome these issues. That validation characterized the uncertainty in the approximate Jacobian used in the tomographic retrieval over a wide range of atmospheric and surface conditions for several horizontal boundary conditions. Here, in Part 2, we test the algorithm's effectiveness on synthetic data to test whether the retrieval accuracy is limited by the use of the approximate Jacobian. We retrieve 3D distributions of a volume extinction coefficient (σ3D) at 40 m resolution from synthetic multi-angle, mono-spectral imagery at 35 m resolution derived from stochastically generated cumuliform-type clouds in (1 km)3 domains. The retrievals are idealized in that we neglect forward-modelling and instrumental errors, with the exception of radiometric noise; thus, reported retrieval errors are the lower bounds. σ3D is retrieved with, on average, a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) < 20 % and bias < 0.1 % for clouds with maximum optical depth (MOD) < 17, and the RRMSE of the radiances is < 0.5 %, indicating very high accuracy in shallow cumulus conditions. As the MOD of the clouds increases to 80, the RRMSE and biases in σ3D worsen to 60 % and −35 %, respectively, and the RRMSE of the radiances reaches 16 %, indicating incomplete convergence. This is expected from the increasing ill-conditioning of the inverse problem with the decreasing mean free path predicted by RT theory and discussed in detail in Part 1. We tested retrievals that use a forward model that is not only less ill-conditioned (in terms of condition number) but also less accurate, due to more aggressive delta-M scaling. This reduces the radiance RRMSE to 9 % and the bias in σ3D to −8 % in clouds with MOD ∼ 80, with no improvement in the RRMSE of σ3D. This illustrates a significant sensitivity of the retrieval to the numerical configuration of the RT model which, at least in our circumstances, improves the retrieval accuracy. All of these ensemble-averaged results are robust in response to the inclusion of radiometric noise during the retrieval. However, individual realizations can have large deviations of up to 18 % in the mean extinction in clouds with MOD ∼ 80, which indicates large uncertainties in the retrievals in the optically thick limit. Using less ill-conditioned forward model tomography can also accurately infer optical depths (ODs) in conditions spanning the majority of oceanic cumulus fields (MOD < 80), as the retrieval provides ODs with bias and RRMSE values better than −8 % and 36 %, respectively. This is a significant improvement over retrievals using 1D RT, which have OD biases between −30 % and −23 % and RRMSE between 29 % and 80 % for the clouds used here. Prior information or other sources of information will be required to improve the RRMSE of σ3D in the optically thick limit, where the RRMSE is shown to have a strong spatial structure that varies with the solar and viewing geometry.

A Mixed Methods Approach for Fuel Characterisation in Gorse (Ulex europaeus L.) Scrub from High-Density UAV Laser Scanning Point Clouds and Semantic Segmentation of UAV Imagery

The classification and quantification of fuel is traditionally a labour-intensive, costly and often subjective operation, especially in hazardous vegetation types, such as gorse (Ulex europaeus L.) scrub. In this study, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies were assessed as an alternative to traditional field methodologies for fuel characterisation. UAV laser scanning (ULS) point clouds were captured, and a variety of spatial and intensity metrics were extracted from these data. These data were used as predictor variables in models describing destructively and non-destructively sampled field measurements of total above ground biomass (TAGB) and above ground available fuel (AGAF). Multiple regression of the structural predictor variables yielded correlations of R2 = 0.89 and 0.87 for destructively sampled measurements of TAGB and AGAF, respectively, with relative root mean square error (RMSE) values of 18.6% and 11.3%, respectively. The best metrics for non-destructive field-measurements yielded correlations of R2 = 0.50 and 0.49, with RMSE values of 40% and 30.8%, for predicting TAGB and AGAF, respectively, indicating that ULS-derived structural metrics offer higher levels of precision. UAV-derived versions of the field metrics (overstory height and cover) predicted TAGB and AGAF with R2 = 0.44 and 0.41, respectively, and RMSE values of 34.5% and 21.7%, demonstrating that even simple metrics from a UAV can still generate moderate correlations. In further analyses, UAV photogrammetric data were captured and automatically processed using deep learning in order to classify vegetation into different fuel categories. The results yielded overall high levels of precision, recall and F1 score (0.83 for each), with minimum and maximum levels per class of F1 = 0.70 and 0.91. In conclusion, these ULS-derived metrics can be used to precisely estimate fuel type components and fuel load at fine spatial resolutions over moderate-sized areas, which will be useful for research, wildfire risk assessment and fuel management operations.

Inversion of Coniferous Forest Stock Volume Based on Backscatter and InSAR Coherence Factors of Sentinel-1 Hyper-Temporal Images and Spectral Variables of Landsat 8 OLI

Forest stock volume (FSV) is a basic data source for estimating forest carbon sink. It is also a crucial parameter that reflects the quality of forest resources and forest management level. The use of remote sensing data combined with a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm has been widely used in FSV estimation. However, due to the complexity and spatial heterogeneity of the forest biological community, in the FSV high-value area with dense vegetation, the optical re-mote sensing variables tend to be saturated, and the sensitivity of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscattering features to the FSV is significantly reduced. These factors seriously affect the ac-curacy of the FSV estimation. In this study, Landsat 8 (L8) Operational Land Imager multispectral images and C-band Sentinel-1 (S1) hyper-temporal SAR images were used to extract three re-mote sensing feature datasets: spectral variables (L8), backscattering coefficients (S1), and inter-ferometric SAR factors (S1-InSAR). We proposed a feature selection method based on SVR (FS-SVR) and compared the FSV estimation performance of FS-SVR and stepwise regression analysis (SRA) on the aforementioned three remote sensing feature datasets. Finally, an estima-tion model of coniferous FSV was constructed using the SVR algorithm in Wangyedian Forest Farm, Inner Mongolia, China, and the spatial distribution map of coniferous FSV was predicted. The experimental results show the following: (1) The coherence amplitude and DSM data ob-tained based on S1 images contain information relat-ed to forest canopy height, and the hy-per-temporal S1 image data significantly enrich the diversity of S1-InSAR feature factors. There-fore, the S1-InSAR dataset has a better FSV response than remote sensing factors such as the S1 backscattering coefficient and L8 vegetation index, and the corresponding root mean square er-ror (RMSE) and relative RMSE (rRMSE) values reached 47.6 m3/ha and 20.9%, respectively. (2) The integrated dataset can provide full play to the synergy of the L8, S1, and S1-InSAR remote sensing data. Its RMSE and rRMSE values are 44.3 m3/ha and 19.4% respectively. (3) The proposed FS-SVR method can better select remote sensing variables suitable for FSV estimation than SRA. The average value of the rRMSE (23.17%) based on the three datasets was 13.8% lower than that of the SRA method (26.87%). This study provides new insights into forest FSV retrieval based on active and passive multisource remote sensing joint data.

Prognosis of forest production using machine learning techniques

Forest production and growth are obtained from statistical models that allow the generation of information at the tree or forest stand level. Although the use of regression models is common in forest measurement, there is a constant search for estimation procedures that provide greater accuracy. Recently, machine learning techniques have been used with satisfactory performance in measuring forests. However, methods such as Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Random Forest are relatively poorly studied for predicting the volume of wood in eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. Therefore, it is essential to check whether these techniques can provide gains in terms of accuracy. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the use of Random Forest and ANFIS techniques in the prognosis of forest production. The data used come from continuous forest inventories carried out in stands of eucalyptus clones. The data were divided into 70% for training and 30% for validation. The algorithms used to generate rules in ANFIS were Subtractive Clustering and Fuzzy-C-Means. Besides, training was done with the hybrid algorithm (descending gradient and least squares) with the number of seasons ranging from 1 to 20. Several RFs were trained, varying the number of trees from 50 to 850 and the number of observations by five leaves to 35. Artificial neural networks and decision trees were also trained to compare the feasibility of the techniques. The evaluation of the estimates generated by the techniques for training and validation was calculated based on the following statistics: correlation coefficient (r), relative Bias (RB), and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) in percentage. In general, the techniques studied in this work showed excellent performance for the training and validation data set with RRMSE values <6%, RB < 0.5%, and r > 0.98. The RF presented inferior statistics about the ANFIS for the prognosis of forest production. The Subtractive Clustering (SC) and Fuzzy-C-Means (FCM) algorithms provide accurate baseline and volume projection estimates; both techniques are good alternatives for selecting variables used in modeling forest production.

Transferability of ALS-based forest attribute models when predicting with drone-based image point cloud data

Field measurement of sample plots is a major cost in forest remote sensing. This is also relevant in drone-based forest inventories where the target area is rather small compared to the area used in other remote sensing techniques. Implementation of forest inventories by remote sensing could be streamlined by using models fitted elsewhere in a similar type of forest. The main objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of forest attribute predictions from drone-based image point clouds (DIPC) without locally fitted models. Instead, the models were fitted in 22 inventory areas across Finland using airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. These models were applied to predict dominant height and stem volume for a separate test area located in eastern Finland. In the test area, the predictors were computed from DIPC data for 15 m × 15 m sub-plots that were finally aggregated to full 30 m × 30 m plots. All dominant height models performed well with the test data: the relative root mean square error (RMSE) varied between 3 and 5% and the relative mean difference (MD) values ranged between 0 and 3%. In contrast, the stem volume models fitted in northern Finland performed poorly with the test data. These models produced RMSE values between 40 and 65%, whereas models fitted in other parts of the country produced RMSE values between 20 and 30%. Similarly, MD values associated with the stem volume models fitted in northern Finland ranged between 24 and 51%, whereas MD values associated with models fitted elsewhere in Finland ranged between 3 and 17%. Regional variations in forest structure are the main reason why models fitted in northern Finland did not perform as well as in the test area.

The applicability of HYDRUS‐1D to infiltration of water‐repellent soil at different depths

AbstractHYDRUS‐1D has been extensively applied to the simulation of wettable soil infiltration, but very few studies have explored its applicability to the infiltration of water‐repellent soil (WRS) at different depths. To this end, HYDRUS‐1D was used to simulate water movement of layered soil with a surface repellent thickness of 10 cm. The parameters of the van Genuchten model were calibrated and validated using cumulative infiltration (CI), distance of the wetting front (Zf) and volumetric water content (θv) through five respective treatments. Another 10 tilled scenarios were selected to simulate water movement of tilled WRS. RRMSE (relative root mean square error) and CRM (coefficient of residual mass) were adopted to evaluate simulation accuracy. For the calibration and validation, the RRMSE values ranged from 0.04 to 0.251 and 0.042 to 0.101, respectively, indicating that HYDRUS‐1D could effectively simulate water movement of WRS. Furthermore, for layered treatments, the simulation accuracy of θv, CI and Zf decreased with the increase of the degree of repellency and thickness. The treatments with the repellent thickness of 10 cm had higher simulation accuracy than that with repellent thickness of 5 cm when the top layer had the same WRS. The results revealed HYDRUS‐1D was effective in the simulation of water movement in repellent clay loam with different degrees of repellency and depths.Highlights The applicability of HYDRUS‐1D to the infiltration of water‐repellent soil (WRS) at different depths was explored. The simulation of different degrees of repellency and depths was first conducted. Simulation accuracy decreased with the increase of degree of repellency and thickness. HYDRUS‐1D was effective in simulating water movement of repellent soil.

Assessment of the clumped model to estimate olive orchard evapotranspiration using meteorological data and UAV-based thermal infrared imagery

A study was performed to evaluate the clumped model in estimating olive orchard evapotranspiration (ETa) using meteorological data and high-resolution thermal infrared (TIR) imagery obtained from a camera onboard an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). An experimental site was established within a superintensive drip-irrigated olive (cv. Arbequina) orchard located in the Pencahue Valley (35.49° S, 71.73°W, and 85 m above sea level), Maule Region, Chile. UAV-based TIR images were collected to obtain the land surface temperature at a very high resolution on 12 clear-sky days during the 2015–2016 growing season. Measurements of the latent heat flux (LE) obtained from an eddy covariance (EC) system were analyzed to assess the clumped model. In addition, submodels to calculate the net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G) were evaluated using a four-way net radiometer and soil heat flux plates with soil thermocouples, respectively. Comparisons indicated that the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) values for LE were 37 and 27 W m−2, respectively, while those for ETa were 0.44 and 0.35 mm day−1, respectively. Both UAV-based values for Rn and G were estimated with RMSE < 31 W m−2 and MAE < 18 W m−2. The relative RMSE (rRMSE) values were 26% for LE, 24% for ETa, 5% for Rn, and 11% for G. The results suggest that the clumped model based on UAV-based TIR imagery and meteorological data could produce maps with a very high resolution to estimate the intraorchard spatial variability in olive orchard water requirements.

Building Energy an Simulation Model for Analyzing Energy Saving Options of Multi-Span Greenhouses

This study proposes a multi-span greenhouse Building Energy Simulation (BES) model using a Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS)-18 program. A detailed BES model was developed and validated to simulate the thermal environment in the greenhouse under different design parameters for the multi-span greenhouse. Validation of the model was carried out by comparing the results from computed and experimental greenhouse internal temperatures. The statistical analyses produced an R2 value of 0.84, a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 1.8 °C, and a relative (r)RMSE value of 6.7%, showing good agreement between computed and experimental results. The validated proposed BES model was used to evaluate the effect of multi-span greenhouse design parameters including thermal screens, number of screens, orientation, covering materials, double glazing, north-wall insulation, roof geometry, and natural ventilation, on the annual energy demand of the greenhouse, subjected to Taean Gun (latitude 36.88° N, longitude 126.24° E), Chungcheongnam-do, South Korea winter and summer season weather conditions. Additionally, the proposed BES model is capable of evaluating multi-span greenhouse design parameters with daily and seasonal dynamic control of thermal and shading screens, natural ventilation, as well as heating and cooling set-points. The TRNSYS 18 program proved to be highly flexible for carrying out simulations under local weather conditions and user-defined design and control of the greenhouse. The statistical analysis of validated results should encourage the adoption of the proposed model when the underlying aim is to evaluate the design parameters of multi-span greenhouses considering local weather conditions and specific needs.

Monitoring Wheat Growth Using a Portable Three-Band Instrument for Crop Growth Monitoring and Diagnosis.

An instrument developed to monitor and diagnose crop growth can quickly and non-destructively obtain crop growth information, which is helpful for crop field production and management. Focusing on the problems with existing two-band instruments used for crop growth monitoring and diagnosis, such as insufficient information available on crop growth and low accuracy of some growth indices retrieval, our research team developed a portable three-band instrument for crop-growth monitoring and diagnosis (CGMD) that obtains a larger amount of information. Based on CGMD, this paper carried out studies on monitoring wheat growth indices. According to the acquired three-band reflectance spectra, the combined indices were constructed by combining different bands, two-band vegetation indices (NDVI, RVI, and DVI), and three-band vegetation indices (TVI-1 and TVI-2). The fitting results of the vegetation indices obtained by CGMD and the commercial instrument FieldSpec HandHeld2 was high and the new instrument could be used for monitoring the canopy vegetation indices. By fitting each vegetation index to the growth index, the results showed that the optimal vegetation indices corresponding to leaf area index (LAI), leaf dry weight (LDW), leaf nitrogen content (LNC), and leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA) were TVI-2, TVI-1, NDVI (R730, R815), and NDVI (R730, R815), respectively. R2 values corresponding to LAI, LDW, LNC and LNA were 0.64, 0.84, 0.60, and 0.82, respectively, and their relative root mean square error (RRMSE) values were 0.29, 0.26, 0.17, and 0.30, respectively. The addition of the red spectral band to CGMD effectively improved the monitoring results of wheat LAI and LDW. Focusing the problem of vegetation index saturation, this paper proposed a method to construct the wheat-growth-index spectral monitoring models that were defined according to the growth periods. It improved the prediction accuracy of LAI, LDW, and LNA, with R2 values of 0.79, 0.85, and 0.85, respectively, and the RRMSE values of these growth indices were 0.22, 0.23, and 0.28, respectively. The method proposed here could be used for the guidance of wheat field cultivation.

Gas distribution mapping for indoor environments based on laser absorption spectroscopy: Development of an improved tomographic algorithm

Gas distribution mapping (GDM) is an important technology for the study of indoor environment, which can be used to evaluate the efficiency of environmental control system and identify pollutant sources. Most recent studies have implemented GDM through contact sensors or a sensor network, which is difficult to calibrate all the sensors and cover the whole space. In this study, we introduced the non-contact tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS) technology for GDM in the indoor environment. An improved tomographic algorithm, namely Least Square with Tikhonov Regularization (LSTR), was proposed and compared with two available tomographic algorithms using four validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. We also analyzed the effects of the laser emitter placements and optical path densities on the concentration field reconstruction quantitatively. The results showed that the LSTR method could reduce the average relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of tomography by 52%, and the laser emitter at the long edge middle (LEM) can achieve better tomographic performance. The degree of the concentration dispersion from the source would mainly impact the tomographic results: when the sector dispersion (SD) value of concentration distribution was about 2.3 times larger, the average RRMSE value would be decreased by about 40%. The intersection matrix with a higher path density achieved a more accurately reconstructed map due to its lower condition number. In addition, the optical path density was suggested to twice the number of grid cells considering the trade-off between scanning time and accuracy.

A Probability-Based Spectral Unmixing Analysis for Mapping Percentage Vegetation Cover of Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

China has been facing serious land degradation and desertification in its north and northwest arid and semi-arid areas. Monitoring the dynamics of percentage vegetation cover (PVC) using remote sensing imagery in these areas has become critical. However, because these areas are large, remote, and sparsely populated, and also because of the existence of mixed pixels, there have been no accurate and cost-effective methods available for this purpose. Spectral unmixing methods are a good alternative as they do not need field data and are low cost. However, traditional linear spectral unmixing (LSU) methods lack the ability to capture the characteristics of spectral reflectance and scattering from endmembers and their interactions within mixed pixels. Moreover, existing nonlinear spectral unmixing methods, such as random forest (RF) and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), are often costly because they require field measurements of PVC from a large number of training samples. In this study, a cost-effective approach to mapping PVC in arid and semi-arid areas was proposed. A method for selection and purification of endmembers mainly based on Landsat imagery was first presented. A probability-based spectral unmixing analysis (PBSUA) and a probability-based optimized k nearest-neighbors (PBOkNN) approach were then developed to improve the mapping of PVC in Duolun County in Inner Mongolia, China, using Landsat 8 images and field data from 920 sample plots. The proposed PBSUA and PBOkNN methods were further validated in terms of accuracy and cost-effectiveness by comparison with two LSU methods, with and without purification of endmembers, and two nonlinear approaches, RF and RBFNN. The cost-effectiveness was defined as the reciprocal of cost timing relative root mean square error (RRMSE). The results showed that (1) Probability-based spectral unmixing analysis (PBSUA) was most cost-effective and increased the cost-effectiveness by 29.3% 29.3%, 33.5%, 50.8%, and 53.0% compared with two LSU methods, PBOkNN, RF, and RBFNN, respectively; (2) PBSUA, RF, and RBFNN gave RRMSE values of 22.9%, 21.8%, and 22.8%, respectively, which were not significantly different from each other at the significance level of 0.05. Compatibly, PBOkNN and LSU methods with and without purification of endmembers resulted in significantly greater RRMSE values of 27.5%, 32.4%, and 43.3%, respectively; (3) the average estimates of the sample plots and predicted maps from PBSUA, PBOkNN, RF, and RBFNN fell in the confidence interval of the test plot data, but those from two LSU methods did not, although the LSU with purification of endmembers improved the PVC estimation accuracy by 25.2% compared with the LSU without purification of endmembers. Thus, this study indicated that the proposed PBSUA had great potential for cost-effectively mapping PVC in arid and semi-arid areas.

Optimal time series model for forecasting monthly temperature in the southwestern region of Thailand

Forecasting and describing the dynamic changes of climatic variables are essential in determining the occurrences of extreme climate events. The understanding of these events will help in taking actions to lessen their related effects. This study compares auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) and the auto-regressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) models in forecasting temperature in Ranong and Phuket, Thailand. The average monthly temperature observations between 2006 and 2016 were collected from the Thai Meteorological Department for the study. The ARIMA and ARIMAX models were then applied to the average monthly temperature using the relative humidity and rainfall as the explanatory variables. Analysis of the root mean square error and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) values from the models revealed that the methods fitted the data quite well. However, the optimal ARIMAX model obtained in Ranong was the ARIMAX (1,0,0)(0,1,0)12 with RRMSE value of 0.874 did better than the optimal ARIMA model. The relative humidity and rainfall factors were very influential in the models. Also, the ARIMA (3,0,2)(0,1,0)12 model with RRMSE value of 1.113 was observed to be the optimal model in the temperature modelling in Phuket. This model fitted better than the optimal ARIMAX model in temperature modelling at Phuket. The fitted models will be beneficial in numerous applications where the observed temperature records are quite short, incomplete, or lack spatial coverage

Toward the robust establishment of variable-fidelity surrogate models for hierarchical stiffened shells by two-step adaptive updating approach

Since the high-fidelity model (HFM) of hierarchical stiffened shells is time-consuming, the sampling points based on HFM are generally few, which would result in a certain randomness of the sampling process. In some cases, the prediction accuracy of the variable-fidelity surrogate model (VFSM) is prone to be not robust and reliable. In order to improve the robustness of the prediction accuracy of VFSM, a two-step adaptive updating approach is proposed for the robust establishment of VFSM. In the first step, the leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation is carried out for sampling points of the low-fidelity model (LFM), aiming at finding out those with large prediction error. Then, these points are evaluated by HFM and then added into the original HFM set. In the second step, another LOO cross validation is performed on sampling points of the hybrid bridge function linking HFM and LFM. Based on the Voronoi diagram method, new updating points are chosen from where the largest prediction error of the bridge function lies, and then the VFSM is updated. After above two-step updating process, the VFSM is established. Three simple examples of test functions are firstly presented to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Further, the proposed method is applied to an engineering example of hierarchical stiffened shells. In order to provide evaluation indexes for prediction accuracy and robustness of VFSM, the VFSM is established by multiple times, and the mean value and the standard deviation of the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) values of the multiple sets of VFSM are calculated. Results indicate that, under the similar computational cost, the mean value and the standard deviation of the RRMSE values of the proposed method decrease by 24.1% and 82.0% than those of the traditional VFSM based on the direct sampling method, respectively. Therefore, the high prediction accuracy and robustness of the proposed method is verified. Additionally, the total computational time of the proposed VFSM decreases by 70% than that of the surrogate model based on HFM when achieving the similar prediction accuracy, indicating the high prediction efficiency of the proposed VFSM.