Relative Accident Risk Research Articles

The impact of employment restriction on the risk of an accident at work in the mining industry in Poland

Abstract The European Union's energy policy has necessitated a reduction in coal mining, with significant consequences for occupational safety within the industry. This study investigates the correlation between employment reduction and accident risk within Poland's mining sector during 2006-2020, a period marked by over a 40% decrease in coal extraction and a corresponding 30% decrease in mining employment. An escalation in the relative risk (RR) of accidents was observed, increasing from 1.28 to 2.33. More critically, the RR of fatal accidents rose from 2.54 to 8.22 by 2019. Analysis revealed a critical employment threshold: a fall in mining employment below 140,000 is associated with a marked increase in accident risk, particularly fatal accidents. A linear model was developed to suggest that a reduction in the RR of accidents to 0.7 is requisite to achieve a national average risk for fatal accidents (RR = 1). The findings advocate for targeted safety interventions and propose a preventive strategy model. The implications are vital for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to improve worker safety in response to employment changes within the mining sector.

The risk of road traffic crashes for occupational drivers: A responsibility study with comparison to the general population.

Road accidents are the leading type of work-related fatalities, but the impact of work-related travel on overall traffic safety has been scarcely studied. The main objective of the present study was to assess drivers' relative road accident risk between work-related and personal journeys. A responsible/non-responsible case-control study was performed on a sample of 7,051 road accidents in France from the VOIESUR project. Logistic regression determined odds-ratios according to work-related versus personal travel, and identified risk factors for responsibility, specific to each of the two sub-groups. Drivers traveling on duty or commuting home were significantly less often responsible for accidents than drivers on personal journeys: OR = 0.75 [0.63; 0.89] and 0.65 [0.53; 0.80] respectively. Responsibility was significantly more frequent in commuting to versus from work: OR = 1.38 [1.06; 1.78]. Among on-duty drivers, professional passenger-transport drivers had the lowest risk of responsibility (OR = 0.25 [0.11; 0.58]), while those on temporary or work/study contracts and professional light goods vehicle drivers had the highest risk (OR = 11.64 [2.15; 62.94] and OR = 29.83 [5.19; 171.38] respectively). When driving under the influence of alcohol, risk of responsibility was higher in commuting home than in personal journeys. On-duty drivers showed lower risk of responsibility for an accident than other drivers. However, on-duty drivers on temporary or work/study contracts, who are usually not subject to specific regulations, showed higher risk, and should be the subject of particular attention regarding occupational risk prevention.

The relative risk of ischemic cerebrovascular accident in patients with Von Willebrand disease.

Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. Von Willebrand factor plays an important role in platelet activation and adhesion. It remains unclear whether Von Willebrand disease (vWD) is associated with a decreased risk of developing CVA. The study aimed to compare the relative risk (RR) of CVA in patients with and without vWD. We queried the National Inpatient Sample from 2009 to 2014 for discharge data and records for vWD and CVA using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth-Revision codes. The unadjusted and adjusted RR of CVA in patients with and without vWD were estimated using log-binomial model. Descriptive measures including means, medians, standard deviations, and range were presented based on normality test of continuous data. The prevalence of CVA was lower in patients with vWD than in those without vWD (1.31% vs 2.04%), with a RR of 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-0.68). After adjusting for common CVA risk factors, the RR remained lower in vWD patients: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86). vWD is associated with a lower RR of developing CVA. This suggests that deficiency of Von Willebrand factor is potentially protective against the development of CVA. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in humans to compare the RR of CVA in patients with and without vWD. Future studies are needed to explore causal relationships and therapeutic benefits.

Optimization of reinforced concrete beams under local mechanical and corrosive damage

ABSTRACT This article addresses the task of multicriteria optimization concerning the mechanical safety of reinforced concrete structures. New optimality criteria are formulated taking into consideration the relative risk of accidents arising as a result of natural disasters and human-induced impacts. An improved adapted genetic algorithm is developed as a basic search tool. It can be distinguished from the existing heuristic schemes by the following features. The algorithm can account for several possible accidents cenarios involving combinations of discrete or group impacts such as corrosive damage and local mechanical damage. The proposed optimization method incorporates multipoint variable operators that enable the convergence of the optimization procedure to increase by 40–60% and can effectively solve problems with a large number of variable parameters. The developed adapted genetic algorithm enables the implementation of multicriteria optimization with respect to nonlinear structural behaviour.

Alcohol Detection Using Automation

Drunk driving is the condition of driving under the usage of alcohol. A small increase in the blood alcohol level increases the relative risk of a motor vehicle accidents leading to severe injuries and sometimes death. Hence the legislator has set acceptable blood limits for drivers and overruling will lead to legal sentences. Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) is the measure used to check drunken driving. However, this method remains tough to be used due to the huge equipment and maintenance cost. The alcohol detector used in this project consists of MQ3 gas sensor and IoT based NODEMCU. This sensor attached to the steering will sense alcohol content through driver’s breathing. The status of driver along with the location map link will be sent to enrolled phone numbers. FIREBASE and THINGSPEAK features are used to achieve this task. Hence an efficient and cost effective alcohol detection method is implemented in this project.

Making the world safer: autonomous emergency braking systems enhance safety for senior drivers

ABSTRACT Active safety system components, such as autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systems, are designed to play a key role in preventing serious car accidents. We investigate the extent to which vehicles with an AEB system are safer than those without it. Empirical analysis shows that the relative risk of accident when driving a car equipped with AEB is not lower than driving one without AEB. However, when we focus on drivers aged 70 years or older, those driving with AEB are safer than they otherwise would be: their risk is approximately two-third lower. Thus, an AEB system is effective for drivers who need the most assistance.

Accident Risk in the Production Sector of EU Countries-Cohort Studies.

(1) Background: accident rates prove the uneven development of the member countries in the area of work safety. Remedial actions and structural programmes should take into account, e.g., the level of work safety in all European Union (EU) countries. Aim: the identification of differences in the level of work safety in the production sector of EU countries, especially the so-called “old” and “new” EU countries. (2) Methods: for each country UE (in 2008–2018), the relative risk (RR) of an accident at work was determined and a comparative analysis was conducted. (3) Results: an increase in the RR of an accident at work was observed along with an increase in the GDP of a given country. It was found that the level of occupational safety in Sweden and the United Kingdom is higher than in other countries, and lower in Spain and Portugal. In the three largest economies of the EU, Germany, France, and Italy, the RR of the accident in the industrial sector in relation to the national data is one of the lowest in the entire EU, not exceeding 1.3. In The Netherlands, an increase of 1.7 RR of fatal accidents in the industrial sector was observed between 2008 and 2018. (4) Conclusions: RR in the manufacturing sector of the so-called “old” EU is higher than in the so-called “new” EU, which may result from the implementation of Industry 4.0 assumptions in the “old” EU. The presented results and conclusions may be useful in shaping the EU policy in the field of sustainable development of production sectors of individual member countries.

Accident Risk among People Employed in Poland—A Retrospective Cohort Study

The article presents studies aimed at determining the relative risk of accidents at work in all age groups of employees and the trend of possible changes in risk as a function of time in the years 2008–2018. The studies were conducted on the basis of statistics of accidents at work in Poland in the years 2008–2018. The data were collected from statistical yearbooks published by the Polish Central Statistical Office. The database covered 732,460 accidents at work. A retrospective cohort analysis of the relative risks for each year and the entire population was carried out. Through sensitivity testing, changes in the summary effect resulting from the removal of a given study were determined. The group with the highest average relative risk of accidents at work (2.59) were employees aged 18–19 years. An increase in relative risk was observed among employees aged +60 years. The smallest relative risk (0.33) was determined among employees under 18 years of age, who in Poland are mainly trainees and students.

Quantifying accident risk and severity due to speed from the reaction point to the critical conflict in fatal motorcycle accidents

In fatal road vehicle accidents motorcycles are overrepresented per vehicle kilometre travelled. Fatal accidents involving motorcycles contain mode specific characteristics, and in common with fatal accidents involving all road users, speed typically presents as a significant contributory factor. The aim of the present study is to provide quantitative estimates for the contribution of speed in situations commencing from the reaction location to the safety critical event involving a motorcyclist and resulting in a fatal accident. The contribution of speed to the resulting accident risk and accident severity is considered from this reaction point. A speed-squared versus stopping distance domain, termed the severity-risk space, is examined to determine the accident measures. The defined accident measures, namely, accident risk, accident severity and accident severity risk are calculated for sixteen fatal accidents from a police dataset of recent UK motorcycle accidents. The estimates of the defined measures are provided in terms relative to values estimated for the vehicle travelling at the speed limit at the safety critical event. The relative accident risk in response to a safety critical situation shows a partial speed dependent reaction phase and a speed-squared dependent braking phase and ranges from 1.3 to 2.8. The speed-squared dependent accident severity measure ranges from 1.4 to 7.3 at pre-impact speeds. The relative accident severity risk shows speed squared to speed cubed dependency components during the reaction phase and a speed to the power of four dependent braking phase and ranges from 2.3 to 22.8. In eight cases the collision would have been avoided had the motorcyclist been travelling at the speed limit at the critical point and in the other eight cases the relative accident severity at impact ranged from 1.4 to 17.2. The speed-squared versus stopping distance domain provides an informative parameter space for considering the accident risk and accident severity dimensions of road user accidents.

Simulating the relative influence of tire, vehicle and driver factors on forward collision accident rates

Introduction: There is currently a strong focus within the automotive industry centered on traffic safety, with topics such as distracted driving, accident avoidance technologies, and autonomous vehicles. These papers tend to focus on the possible improvements from a single factor. However, there are many factors that are present in each accident, and it is important to understand the influence of each factor on the relative accident risk in order to identify the most effective approaches for improving driver safety. Rear-end accidents tend to be the most common accident type with approximately 1.8 M cases, or 31% of all accidents, in 2012, according to NHTSA. Of the rear-end accident scenarios, approximately 18–23% occur on wet surfaces. Method: A Monte Carlo Forward Collision Simulation models the conditions of a wet rear-end accident and estimates the relative impact of various vehicle collision parameters. The model takes distributions of these parameters as inputs, and outputs a risk of collision relative to a known reference case. The parameters that can be studied include: tire grip level, road grip level, vehicle velocity, following distances, and the presence of vehicle technologies (ABS, FCW & AEB). Distributions of some of these parameters have been improved thanks to Naturalistic Driving Study data from SHRP2. Results: This study shows that these vehicle systems have a large impact on safety and can change the amount of influence attributed to other parameters such as tire grip levels. As the use of automated vehicle systems expands, so will the influence of tire grip performance levels on collision risks. Practical Applications: It is more important than ever for consumers and auto manufacturers to consider tire performance levels. Therefore, the tire industry should continue to focus on wet grip as a key performance related to safety and should strive to continue to improve tire performance.

여름철 낮 시간대 교통사고에 대한 고온의 영향

Climate change affects the occurrence of heat waves in Korea. Heat wave gives significant impacts not only to human health, but also adversely affects on traffic accidents both directly and indirectly. This study analyzed heat wave impacts on traffic accidents in summer time (JJA) from 2012 to 2017 timely. To consider some occupations work in earlier or later than regular working hour, 04~20h is set for this study. Generalized additive model is used to analyze the relation between the temperature and traffic accidents. The results showed that the traffic accidents in high temperature increases in 04~08h, 08~12h, and especially 18~20h. The percent difference for relative risk of traffic accidents is 2.34% (95% confidence interval: 1.140, 3.269) when the temperature increase by 1°C in 18~20h. The results of this study suggest some requirements for measures to prevent traffic accidents in the morning and evening hours with increasing temperatures.

The impact of generation on the risk of road accidents

The paper deals with the widespread perception, popular since 2017, that millennials are the worst drivers. In motor insurance, it is commonly known that age and gender are significant determinants of accidents’ risk. Nowadays, millennials are the youngest drivers. Thus, the question arises whether, apart from the age, generation isa risk factor. The aim of this paper is to verify whether generation influences the level of the road accidents rate in Poland besides age and gender of drivers. Due to the downward trend of this rate, the relative risk of road accidents was analysed among licensed drivers in Poland in the years 2006—2017. For the analysis data of the Polish National Police, Polish Road Safety Observatory, Statistics Poland, Social Diagnosis as well as Public Opinion Research Centre were used. The percentage of licensed drivers was estimated for age and gender groups as well as the percentage of millennials in these groups, according to the generation theory. The results of the empirical study for age groups of both perpetrators of the accidents and drivers involved in accidents do not confirm the hypothesis about the impact of the generation on the risk of a road accident.

Association Between Vestibular Vertigo and Motor Vehicle Accidents: Data From the 2016 National Health Interview Survey.

Recent evidence has shown that individuals with vestibular impairment have higher rates of self-reported driving difficulty compared with individuals without vestibular impairment. However, it is unknown whether individuals with vestibular impairment are more likely to be involved in motor vehicle accidents. We used data from the 2016 National Health Interview Survey of U.S. adults to evaluate whether individuals with vestibular vertigo are more likely to experience motor vehicle accidents relative to individuals without vestibular vertigo. In multivariate analysis, vestibular vertigo was associated with an over threefold increased odds of motor vehicle accidents (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-7.3). This study supports an association between vestibular dysfunction and driving impairment, and provides a relative risk of motor vehicle accidents associated with vestibular vertigo that clinicians may utilize in counseling patients on the potential safety hazards of driving.

Accident risk of road and weather conditions on different road types

This study was designed to investigate the relative accident risk of different road weather conditions and combinations of conditions. The study applied a recently developed method which is based on the notion of Palm probability, originating in the theory of random point processes, which in this case corresponds to picking a random vehicle from the traffic. The method consists of calculating the Palm distribution of different conditions and comparing it with the distribution of the same conditions as seen by the accidents. The condition affects the accident risk statistically, when these two distributions differ. The study included all police reported single- and multi-vehicle accidents (N = 10,646) occurring on 43 main roads in Finland during the years 2014–2016. A major contribution of this paper is the demonstration of the method on national scale by using estimated hourly traffic volumes on road segments instead of measured ones, which would have been available for few roads only. Accident risks are commonly examined in relation to traffic volume. This paper includes the speed of the traffic and thus, the paper examines accident risk in relation to the time spent on the road segment in certain conditions. The hour-level weather and road condition data per segment were obtained from nearby road weather stations. The relative accident risks were increased for poor road weather conditions; however, they were highest for icy rain and slippery and very slippery road conditions. When comparing the relative accident risk based on road type, the results showed that the risk in poor weather and road conditions was higher on motorways compared to two-lane and multiple-lane roads even though the overall risk was lower on motorways. Furthermore, the corresponding relative accident risks were generally higher for single-vehicle accidents compared to multi-vehicle accidents.

Exploring rainfall impacts on the crash risk on Texas roadways: A crash-based matched-pairs analysis approach

Interaction between adverse weather conditions and motor vehicle crashes is an important topic for traffic engineers and hydrometeorologists. With the recent availability of high resolution precipitation products (hourly, 4 × 4 km), it is possible to evaluate crash risk during rainfall events more accurately. Texas, the second largest state in the U.S., with a relatively high population density in its eastern part that receives significant rainfall from tropical events, experiences many hazardous traffic conditions every year. This study investigates temporal and spatial variability of the Relative Accident Risk (RAR) due to rainy conditions across Texas during the year 2015 using a Crash-Based Matched Pairs Analysis (CB-MPA) approach for every 4 × 4 km grid using an hourly time scale. The overall findings show that rainfall increases crash risk across the state by about 57%, while seasonal-based analysis confirms the role of precipitation patterns on crash rates. Although eastern and central counties (wetter and more urbanized) have remarkably higher rates of crash occurrence, the western counties (mainly rural and dry) show higher RAR values. Moreover, higher rainfall intensity can increase RAR up to three-fold while directly having an adverse effect on crash injury type. There is a relatively high correlation between rainfall intensity and RAR values (R2 = 0.76). The analysis also shows higher RAR values on high-speed interstate highways and tollways compared to urban local streets. RAR values also vary according to the gender and age of drivers. The study findings shed light on future paths toward more detailed applications of high-resolution environmental data in crash risk analysis.

Precipitation Effects on Motor Vehicle Crashes Vary by Space, Time, and Environmental Conditions

Abstract Numerous studies have shown that precipitation has a significant impact on motor vehicle crashes. Hourly weather radar data with a 4-km resolution and over 600 000 crashes from 2002 to 2012 in Iowa are used to assess the effects of precipitation on motor vehicle crashes. Using a matched pairs analysis, this study finds that the relative accident risk (RAR) across the state during the study period was 1.69 [1.66, 1.71]. However, RAR increased to as high as 3.7 [3.6, 4.0] and as low as 1.1 [1.0, 1.2] for frozen and liquid precipitation types, respectively. RAR also varied significantly by hour of the day, with RAR near 2 in the late afternoon and 1.3 during the early morning hours, suggesting an interaction effect between precipitation and traffic volume and/or density on crash risk. The study also shows that interstates and major highways tend to have higher RAR than smaller roads, and it was able to identify locations that are particularly sensitive to precipitation with regard to crashes. This study can be used to inform future studies on the effects of weather and climate change on crashes.

Development and application of traffic accident density estimation models using kernel density estimation

Traffic accident frequency has been decreasing in Japan in recent years. Nevertheless, many accidents still occur on residential roads. Area-wide traffic calming measures including Zone 30, which discourages traffic by setting a speed limit of 30 km/h in residential areas, have been implemented. However, no objective implementation method has been established. Development of a model for traffic accident density estimation explained by GIS data can enable the determination of dangerous areas objectively and easily, indicating where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially. This study examined the relations between traffic accidents and city characteristics, such as population, road factors, and spatial factors. A model was developed to estimate traffic accident density. Kernel density estimation (KDE) techniques were used to assess the relations efficiently. Besides, 16 models were developed by combining accident locations, accident types, and data types. By using them, the applicability of traffic accident density estimation models was examined. Results obtained using Spearman rank correlation show high coefficients between the predicted number and the actual number. The model can indicate the relative accident risk in cities. Results of this study can be used for objective determination of areas where area-wide traffic calming can be implemented preferentially, even if sufficient traffic accident data are not available.

Risk of Avalanche Involvement in Winter Backcountry Recreation: The Advantage of Small Groups

Avalanches are the primary hazard for winter backcountry recreationists and cause numerous deaths and injuries annually. Although recreationists usually travel in groups, there is little empirical knowledge on group-related risk factors. This study aims to explore the relative risk of avalanche accidents with respect to group size and to discuss underlying reasons for different risk levels. We compared backcountry usage data in regions in Switzerland and Italy with avalanche accident data in these regions. We found higher avalanche risk for groups of 4 or more people and lower risk for people traveling alone and in groups of 2. The relative risk of group size 4, 5, and 6 was higher compared with the reference group size of 2 in the Swiss and Italian dataset. The relative risk for people traveling alone was not significantly different compared with the reference group size of 2 in the Italian dataset but was lower in the Swiss dataset. These findings are in accordance with avalanche safety recommendations regarding the higher risk of large groups but not regarding lower risks of people traveling alone in avalanche terrain, which is not recommended and requires great caution. Further studies on backcountry usage are necessary to improve our understanding of human behavior and risk factors. New techniques (eg, video monitoring) may be useful for acquiring reliable data on backcountry usage.

Child poisonings with methadone in France: A 6-year prospective national survey since the availability of capsules in 2008

Background. Methadone for opiate substitution was available only in syrup formulation prior to 2008. In 2007, the French Health Authorities made solid forms available. A national survey was performed in order to evaluate the modification of child poisonings induced by such a new pharmaceutical formulation. Methods. A prospective study was set up (April 15, 2008 to April 15, 2014) with the analysis of cases of unintentional ingestion of methadone by patients under 18 years old and managed by the 10 French poison control centers at the national level. As soon as a new pediatric exposure was recorded in the informatics data bank of the Poison Centers, a telephone survey was performed by the Marseilles’ Poison Center to obtain the evolution and all the necessary details. Results. 87 cases of child poisonings with the 2 forms were reviewed (syrup, 56 patients; capsules, 31 patients). Comparison shows that patients were similar for both formulations (no significant difference concerning age [median 2 years], sex ratio [M/F 0.85], previous history, and ingested quantities of methadone). There was a similar severity profile with both formulations proving that methadone can lead to lethal child intoxications (1 death with capsules and 4 with syrup). The relative risk of pediatric accidents is also the same with 2 formulations, leading the health authorities, in collaboration with laboratories, to design and distribute flyers. The aim was to inform patients who are also parents about the high danger risk of their treatment for children, whatever the formulation of methadone present in the house. Discussion. The results of this survey were similar to those of another national study by the French Poison Centers concerning adult suicide attempts with methadone. Both prospective studies led to the conclusion that methadone must be considered as a dangerous molecule for patients and their families. The recent availability of a solid formulation in France did not change the profile of poisonings with this opiate substitute treatment.

Graduated driver licensing: searching for the best composition of components

Young drivers 16-19 years have a relative accident risk of 9-10 compared to drivers aged 55-64 years. Education and training of young drivers, which could reduce the death toll, have been an issue for many decades, but without much success regarding the effects on accidents. A more promising trend, which started in the mid-1980s, is generally known as graduated driver licensing (GDL). Many different layouts are put into practice in several countries and more than 20 different components have been developed. Jurisdictions need advice from research to elaborate and propose the best composition of GDL-components. The paper gives an overview of GDL-components. Summary effects for some of the most important components are calculated by means of meta-analysis, based on empirical accident studies. Finally, the paper discusses potentials of improvement of current Brazilian driver training practices and provides recommendations about combinations of components that contribute most to the effectiveness of GDL-programs.