Relative Labor Demand Research Articles

Trends in College–High School Wage Differentials in China: The Role of Cohort-Specific Labor Supply Shift

The wage gap between 4-year college (BA) and high school (HS) graduates narrows down among young workers from 2002 to 2009 in urban China, despite steadily increasing BA–HS wage gaps for older workers during the same time. This period corresponds to the labor market entry of a radically increasing number of college-educated labor stimulated by China’s higher education expansion program initiated in 1999. This study examines how cohort-specific relative supply of college-educated labor affects the cohort-specific college wage premiums and the overall BA–HS wage gaps in the labor market. Incorporating an aggregate labor supply model with imperfect substitution across labor with the same education level but in different age groups, changes in age-group-specific BA–HS wage gaps over time are decomposed into changes in aggregate and age-group-specific relative labor supply and demand factors. Findings suggest that the substantially expanded opportunities to attend college contribute to the falling BA–HS income inequality among young post-expansion cohorts: a 1-percent increase in the relative supply of BA-educated workers within one’s own cohorts depresses cohort-specific BA–HS wage gap by 0.2%. Policies that substantially boost educational attainment for certain cohorts could reduce education-related wage gaps for these cohorts and have spillover effects to the wage structure in the labor market.

Air Pollution Quotas and the Dynamics of Internal Skilled Migration in Chinese Cities

This paper examines the role of a sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions quota introduced as part of China's 11th Five-Year Plan on internal movements of high-skilled labour across Chinese prefecture cities. Using data on migration flows calculated through changes in Hukou status, this study suggests that a 1,000 tons increase in the SO2 emissions reduction quota leads on average to approximately a 1.5 percentage points increase in high-skilled net outmigration. Compared to the largest prefectures, this regulation effect is twice as large in the smaller regulated prefectures. A possible mechanism could be that the implementation of SO2 quotas decreases relative labour demand in polluting industries in the regulated cities in the short term, thereby resulting in sectoral transitions from dirty-to-clean industries as well as skilled net outmigration flows. However, this net outmigration trend fades in the long term due to stabilisation in air quality. Our findings help contribute to a broader understanding of the effects of environmental policies on internal labour migration and labour force dynamics.

From Product Concentration to Local Labor Market Outcomes: The Effect on Industry Wages

In this paper, I examine whether higher product market power can affect labor earnings through its effect on overall labor demand in distinct markets, as a set of dominant firms replaces employment by competitors. To identify relative labor demand shifts, I focus on variations in the spatial concentration within an industry following increases in market power.

Employment impacts of market novelty sales: evidence for nine European Countries

This study investigates the impact of new market product (market novelty) sales on labor demand (employment). Based on a two-output cost function (market novelties and existing products) a relative employment equation is derived with the ratio of labor to material inputs as dependent variables. The relative labor demand model is estimated using biennial data for 25 industries, nine European countries and five time periods (2002–2010) or by use of a size-class dataset with broad industry groups. System GMM estimations accounting for endogeneity show that the turnover (sales) of market novelties (in relation to existing products) has a significant impact on relative employment in manufacturing industries. On average, an increase in the relative turnover of new market products by one percentage point is associated with a 1.6% increase in the employment ratio. In contrast, employment in service industries does not benefit from new market products but instead from the intensity with which information and communication technology innovations are used, approximated by the proportion of broadband internet connected employees. When instead the size-class dataset is employed, it becomes clear that market novelties primarily drive employment in small firms.

Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle

We present new evidence on the evolution of labor mobility in the United States over the past four decades. Building on the seminal methodology by Blanchard and Katz (1992), combined with multiple sources of regional population and migration data, we show that interstate mobility in response to relative labor demand conditions is not as high as previously established and has been weakening since the early 1990s. In addition, we find that mobility is countercyclical: net migration across regions responds more strongly to spatial disparities in recessions than in normal times. While the declining trend in mobility has been driven by weaker out-migration from states experiencing negative relative shocks, the mobility surge in recessions is mostly accounted for by temporarily stronger in-migration to better-performing states.

Firm-level effects of offshoring of materials and services on relative labor demand

Based on firm level data for the Swedish manufacturing sector the objective of this paper is to analyze relative labor demand effects due to offshoring. Data allow us to distinguish between goods and service offshoring and from which country Swedish firms source their inputs. Overall, our results give no support to the fears that offshoring of goods or services lead to out-location of high-skilled activity in Swedish firms. Rather, this paper finds robust evidence that the aggregate effects from offshoring lead to increasing relative demand of high-skilled labor, mainly due to service offshoring.

Technological Change, Skill Demand, and Wage Inequality: Evidence from Indonesia

• We examine how technological change affects wage inequality in Indonesia. • Indonesia has experienced rising wage inequality since the early 2000s. • Inequality increased after shifts in relative labor demand within and between industries. • International trade and FDI increase demand for skilled workers and skill premium. This study provides empirical evidence of the impact that technological progress has on wage inequality in Indonesia. The share of educated workers and their skill premiums have recently increased. A supply–demand analysis, using labor force survey data during 1990–2009, shows that both the between- and within-industry shifts of labor demand that favored skilled workers contributed to the widening wage inequality since the early 2000s. Evidence from firm-level data in the manufacturing sector indicates that the diffusion of foreign technologies through imports and foreign direct investment caused demand to shift toward more skilled labor and increased wage inequality.

Multinational firms, acquisitions and job tasks

We revisit the question how inward FDI and multinational ownership affect relative labor demand. Motivated by the recent literature that distinguish between skills and tasks, we argue that the impact of multinational and foreign ownership on the demand for labor is better captured by focusing on job tasks rather than education. We use Swedish matched employer–employee data and find that changes of local firms to both foreign and Swedish multinationals increase the relative demand for non-routine and interactive job tasks in the targeted local firms. Hence, in a high-income country, both inward and outward FDI have a task upgrading impact on local firms. The effect is primarily driven by wage effects leading to increased wage dispersion for workers with different non-routine and interactive task intensity. We also show that the effect is not the same as skill upgrading since dividing employees by educational attainment does not capture changes in the relative labor demand. Hence, our results suggest a new aspect of the labor market consequences of FDI.

Revisiting the Long-Run Relationship between Wage Inequality and Minimum Wage

Unlike traditional economists, claim that non-market factors, such as the falling real minimum wage and unionization in the U.S. labor market, may increase wage inequality, in particular in the 1980s, rather than market factors, such as shifts in labor supply and demand. But even though they do not agree with the revisionists view, traditional economists have not yet shown explicitly that a falling real minimum wage is unrelated to wage inequality. In this paper, we demonstrate that, using dynamic models, the minimum wage may have a spurious relationship with wage inequality, and that shifts in relative labor supply and demand are still important factors determining wage inequality.

Offshoring and Relative Labor Demand from a Task Perspective

This paper provides new evidence on how offshoring shifts relative labor demand for tasks at the industry level. A novel theoretical mechanism, based on sorting of heterogeneous workers into occupations with task dependent offshoring cost, guides estimation. Cost shares of tasks are linked to offshoring in a panel estimation using German data for 1998-2007. It is shown that offshoring shifts home country relative labor demand towards more complex tasks with higher relocation cost. This demand shift holds when controlling for an industry’s skill composition and is particularly strong for offshoring to non-OECD countries.

Trade liberalization, technology import and skill upgrading in Tunisian manufacturing industries

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to focus on the impact of trade openness and technology import on the change in demand structure of employment toward skilled workers. Because of the limited number of empirical papers done in the case of Tunisia, this research investigates whether these factors had similar effects on relative labor demand in Tunisia to those observed in the international literature.Design/methodology/approach– For this purpose, the paper uses a manufacturing industries database provided by the Tunisian National Institute, the Quantitative Economic Institute and Comtrade of United Nations for six manufacturing industries. The methodology used here is a panel data technique, and consists of estimating a dynamic relative employment equation.Findings– Empirical results show that trade liberalization and technology change positively affect relative employment of Tunisian manufacturing industries which confirms the existence of skill biased technological change that contributes to increase the relative demand for skilled workers.Originality/value– The paper adds to existing literature by studying for the first time the case of Tunisian manufacturing industries by using dynamic model. The paper deals also with an econometrics issues related to the use of suitable estimation methodology in the case of dynamic panel data at macroeconomics level.

Spillovers from High-Skill Consumption to Low-Skill Labor Markets

The least-skilled workforce in the United States is disproportionally employed in the provision of time-intensive services that can be thought of as market substitutes for home production activities. At the same time, skilled workers, with their high opportunity cost of time, spend a larger fraction of their budget in these services. Given the skill asymmetry between consumers and providers in this market, product demand shifts—such as those arising when relative skilled wages increase—should boost relative labor demand for the least-skilled workforce. We estimate that this channel may explain one-third of the growth of employment of noncollege workers in low-skill services in the 1990s.

Multinational Firms and Job Tasks

We analyze the impact of multinational and foreign ownership on the demand for job tasks and educational skills. By using Swedish matched employer-employee data, we find that both foreign and domestic multinational firms have high shares of non-routine tasks and tasks requiring personal interaction. Moreover, acquisitions of local firms by multinationals increase the relative demand for non-routine and interactive job tasks in the targeted firms. The differences in the demand for job tasks are only partly explained by firm characteristics. Dividing employees by education instead of job tasks does not result in the same effects on relative labor demand, which shows that task measures do indeed capture a new labor market aspect.

The substitutability between parent company and foreign affiliate employment in Europe

This paper examines the substitution pattern between parent company and foreign affiliate employment of European multinationals. The data is drawn from the AMADEUS and BANKSCOPE firm-level databases and covers parent companies in 14 high-wage European countries (EUR14) and their affiliated companies in the wider Europe including locations in the low-wage Central and East European countries (CEEC) for the period 2000–2004. We find that the substitution elasticity between employment of the EUR14 parent companies and employment in their foreign affiliates in the CEEC is quite low. Furthermore, the substitution possibilities are higher between parent company and affiliate employment in other West European countries than those between parent company and affiliate employment in the CEEC. Finally, we find that the output change of the parent company and to a lesser extent that of the foreign affiliates is more important than changes in relative wages in determining the relative labour demand.

Inward FDI and demand for skills in manufacturing firms in Sweden

We observe a substantial increase in foreign ownership in Sweden in the 1990s. Did that have any effect on relative demand for skilled labor? Has technology transfers—often associated with inward FDI—led to an increased demand for skills due to skilled-biased technical change? Are there any grounds for the concerns in the public Swedish debate that more skilled activities have been moved to other countries where the headquarters are located? Estimating relative labor demand at the firm level and using propensity score matching with difference-in-difference estimation, we obtain support for that relative demand for skilled labor tend to rise in non-multinationals (non-MNEs)—but not in multinationals (MNEs)—that become foreign-owned. Other interesting findings are that larger presence of foreign MNEs in an industry appears to have a positive impact on the relative demand for skills in Swedish MNEs within the same industry and that the elasticity of substitution between skilled and less-skilled labor seems to be lower in MNEs than in non-MNEs.

The Timing of Labor Demand

We examine the timing of firms’ operations in a for mal model of labor demand. Merging a variety of data sets from Portugal from 1995-2004, we describe temporal patterns of firms’ demand for labor and estimate production-functions and relative labor-demand equations. The results demonstrate the existence of substitution o f employment across times of the day/week and show that legislated penalties for work at irre gular hours induce firms to alter their operating schedules. The results suggest a role fo r such penalties in an unregulated labor market, such as the United States, in which unusual ly large fractions of work are performed at night and on weekends.

The College Wage Premium and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK*

AbstractThis paper reports estimates of the UK “college premium” for young graduates across successive cohorts from large cross‐section datasets for the UK pooled from 1994 to 2006—a period when the higher education participation rate increased dramatically. The growth in relative labour demand suggests that graduate supply considerably outstripped demand which ought to imply a fall in the premium. We find no significant fall for men and even a large, but insignificant, rise for women. Quantile regression results reveal a fall in the premium only for men in the bottom quartile of the distribution of unobserved skills.

The enlargement of the euro area: differences in relative inflation

This paper investigates the structural determinants of relative inflation (i.e. the inflation of non‐tradables vs tradables) in the context of overall inflation differentials in the EU. The analysis is based on the Bergstrand theoretical model. This framework incorporates three alternative hypotheses of relative inflation (Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson, relative factors endowment, and demand effects). Due to the lack of reliable data on capital stocks only a curtailed version of the model is tested here empirically. The various specifications of the model are estimated for the majority of EU countries, using the Pedroni panel group mean FMOLS estimator. In general, relative labour productivity and demand factors turn out to be significant and correctly signed, though evidence in favour of the latter effect seems to be less robust. In addition, differences in the determination of relative prices between the new and old EU Member States are found. They seem to be consistent with theoretical considerations and the transition phenomenon. The estimation results are very sensitive to the definition of non‐tradables. The paper also discusses policy implications for overall inflation, stemming from relative price models. It questions the usefulness of relative inflation models for the analysis of overall inflation differentials and practical policy decisions.

Patterns of international fragmentation of production and the relative demand for labor

Growing shares of international trade flows consist of intermediate and unfinished goods shipped from one country to another to combine manufacturing or services activities at home with those performed abroad. This configuration of the productive structure has been named “internationally fragmented.” The purpose of our work is to analyze the labor market effects of international fragmentation of production, looking at how it affects relative labor demand. Models of trade due to fragmentation of production suggest that when international fragmentation takes place we might observe changes in factor proportions in the affected industries. We use outward-processing-trade data – specifically related to international fragmentation of production – to test if the shift in the ratio of skilled and unskilled labor employed in Italy and Germany during the 1990s is related to fragmentation.

Skill-biased technical change in US manufacturing: a general index approach

Abstract This article applies recent advances in productivity and efficiency measurement to the evaluation of skill-biased technical change. Using the general index approach we are able to establish an explicit and unconstrained time path for nonneutral technical change between production and nonproduction labor in US manufacturing industries over the 1959–1996 period. Our findings confirm the prevailing interpretation in the labor economics literature that substantial reductions in the relative share of production labor are attributable to a sustained period of nonneutral technical change. However, we find that skill-biased technical change effects are most evident prior to 1983. This predates the diffusion of personal computer technologies in the workplace and the dramatic wage structure changes associated with the 1980s. In contrast to prevailing alternatives, the general index approach also permits us to explain observed shifts in relative labor demand as a combination of price-induced substitution, nonhomothetic output effects and skill-biased technical change responses to a range of proposed elements.